Your description of a downfield passer susceptible to throwing interceptions sounds a lot like Stidham in 2020. Passing for big chunks but continually ending drives with turnovers or mistakes does not work in the NFL.
The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread
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It also sounds a lot like Josh Allen through the first 4 weeks of his second season at QB: He had 3 TDs and 6 INTs with 5 fumbles in the first month of year 2. People forget how difficult the QB position is for a young quarterback.
That says far more about the Ravens and Raven fans than anything about Mac. Some of these takes on this board are getting ridiculous, holy shit.
It’s permeated out of just Ravens fans.
I post on a discord that is very not sports related - and he’s being mocked mercilessly. Just weird for it to extend so far out.
is it really that hard to understand how reactions to Tom Brady‘s successor would veer wildly from elated to despondent on Internet message boards?
If this was year one without Tom yeah. Last year the Pats were fairly benign even after their playoff game. No one really cared.
No one cared until he got injured.
I'm but one person/fan, but I'm not miserable or even close to it. After winning so much the last 20 years, I'm totally fine with what is happening. I don't care nearly as much, the losses don't hurt in close to the same universe as the TB12 years, etc. It's nice to be a more "bandwagon" fan.
Same goes for the Sox.
Yea I guess.
just musing about it since I’m seeing it in corners that generally avoid any sort of sports talk.
100% agree. I'm not really a bandwagon fan, but given all the success our teams have had over the last 20 years, it's a lot easier to handle not being as good. I just want to see progress towards the next good Pats' team.
I wouldn't trade the Brady years for anything, but there is something to be said for having lower expectations. As joyous it was, there was an obnoxious amount of pressure on the Patriots to be great every season, and for Brady to be amazing to prove the haters and the doubters wrong. It's nice in some ways to just hope the team wins each week, but not feel like each and every game is some legacy-defining event that needs to result in a win.
Obviously, he didn't have Dr. Arroyoyo's analysis at the time. No way he makes that pick if he had.
I honestly felt like it was always Brady, not the Pats in particular. Like 2008 he went down and it was much easier to accept not making the playoffs. But because EVERYONE hated Brady, the longer he went - the longer you wanted to shut them up, and you wanted his legacy to be flawless...and there was just an insane amount of pressure on him and the fans. It was agonizing to watch him fail...now when they lose, it's pretty chill. Frustrating when they beat themselves as they so often do, but so much more chill.
Agree with both of this. It was both the Pats and Brady chasing history, but yes, 2008 was easier to deal with.
It's similar to the Sox winning in 2004. I wouldn't trade that experience for anything. But my god were those tense days / years that I don't really ever want to experience again.
I agree, but still feel the legacy bit to a certain extent given BB is still here. I hate the criticism in the national media that he’s average without TB, which is lazy and lame. Once he’s done I’ll really be in the post-2004 (or really 2007) Sox mindset.
Everyone needs to PLEASE stop comparing anyone to Josh Allen. There are almost 0 QBs who have been as poor as Allen was his first two years, particularly accuracy-wise, who then improved to be one of the best in the league. He is the exception that proves the rule.
You especially shouldn't compare Mac to him, who is not as strong / good of an athlete and came from the best college program in the country. He should have been more of a finished product than Allen.
My main concern with Mac is that he had a whole offseason with nearly all of the same receivers and no weird COVID rules, we heard a lot of nice things about how he was working out with them etc., and he seems to be less in tune with them this year. As others have said the injury is very unfortunate for his development but to the extent that it's mental maybe he can use it as a reset.
Just a reminder everyone that development and progression is almost never linear. Even a really good climb in the stock market is going to feature a lot of down days/weeks/months/years (depending on your time horizon).
I mean WOW arm throws, or more accurately, throws that change how the defense plays you. Dropping in deep balls is really good, but those are all about precision putting them in the same category.
As to the INT, I don't think it matters whose fault that 1 pick is, there were other throws over the past few weeks that could have been picked and weren't. He is trying for more chunk plays, partially schemed, partially because his protection has been excellent so he has time. He's also making a lot of bad decisions. He needs to clean those up to be effective, and it's starting to be a bit concerning that even with very good pass blocking for the most part he's struggling.
I can name several QBs just off the top of my head who were terribly inaccurate and turnover prone in their first year+ in the league: John Elway, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, Steve McNair, etc... If I decided to hunt around on ProFootballReference, I guarantee you I could come up with at least a dozen more guys who struggled like this early in their careers.
Multiple people have mentioned that it looks like the Patriots were giving Mac a bit more leash. As such, its reasonable to expect more mistakes and bad decisions to follow. The concern here isn't that Jones is suddenly an INT machine - its that he is incapable of cleaning up his issues.
People have noted that Jones missed a lot of chunk plays last season. It feels like the only way to learn whether he can make those throws consistently is to let him try. He is going to screw up - logic and data tell us this - but does he progress in terms of avoiding the same miscues.
Again, the jury is out and they may not be back for a few months but I will be watching that vs the raw stats
People have noted that Jones missed a lot of chunk plays last season. It feels like the only way to learn whether he can make those throws consistently is to let him try. He is going to screw up - logic and data tell us this - but does he progress in terms of avoiding the same miscues.
Again, the jury is out and they may not be back for a few months but I will be watching that vs the raw stats
Curran isn’t my favorite beat guy any more, but I thought his take was balanced and fair.
View: https://twitter.com/nbcsboston/status/1574460230712397839?s=46&t=awq_P2BtwOvn8l01RXfEHA
View: https://twitter.com/nbcsboston/status/1574460230712397839?s=46&t=awq_P2BtwOvn8l01RXfEHA
Terry Bradshaw was probably the worst in his formative years. 6 TD passes and 24 interceptions in his rookie year. I guess he came close to benching. Of course he had a cannon of an arm and could shake off tacklers like a Josh Allen. Not a good comparison, Mac to Bradshaw.
I find it notable that every name thrown out is either a complete non-comp physically or came into the league 20-40 years ago. If people want to make comps, try to keep them to the same era maybe?
I get why it is, which is people look for good QBs first then troll through to hope for a comp, instead of looking for comps first then seeing how they turn out, but that selection process tells me you're looking for a result you hope for rather than actually looking for similar players and then assessing what happens with players like Jones.
I get why it is, which is people look for good QBs first then troll through to hope for a comp, instead of looking for comps first then seeing how they turn out, but that selection process tells me you're looking for a result you hope for rather than actually looking for similar players and then assessing what happens with players like Jones.
People look for comps from QBs that they know. They typically know guys that are good, else they wouldn't likely know much about them. A lot of those guys sucked early and got great. It's not nefarious, man.
Phil Perry
Quarterback: C+
Jones has to take a bit of a hit on the end-zone pick to Parker. It was a risky throw into coverage. But he probably believed Parker knew there was a chance the ball was coming his way. After getting confused at the line, it looked like Parker assumed he wasn't one of Jones' reads. That's not on the quarterback, who was hoping his receiver would be able to bat the ball away if not catch it outright.
Perhaps Jones' more glaring error in this one was linebacker Josh Bynes' pick on a hard wide-zone play-action pass. Jones didn't seem to see the second-level defender and turned it over. But, as was the case on the end-zone pick, it's worth wondering how coaching factored into that particular error.
The Patriots hadn't yet run wide zone to that point in the day. Still, they ran a wide zone fake. Not surprisingly, Ravens linebackers -- who likely saw that wide zone was not a major part of either of New England's first two games of the season -- didn't bite. Bynes was right where he needed to be to make the play. That's partly on the play-caller.
Outside of those two errors, though, Jones made multiple plays with his legs -- including recording his first-career rushing touchdown -- and he had one of his most explosive days throwing the football. He had five of what Pro Football Focus deems "big-time throws" (their most difficult and highest-graded passes). That's the most in a single game he's compiled in his young career.
His bucket throw to Parker for 40 yards in the first quarter was a beauty, and he led Parker perfectly on his first pass of the game for a 30-yard shot. His sideline dart to Parker for 25 yards was placed on a dime, as was a 36-yarder to Parker along the right sideline. The throw Jones hit to Nelson Agholor -- which Agholor eventually fumbled -- seemed dangerous but was extremely accurate. And even an incomplete throw to Parker between two defenders deep down the field, though perhaps inviting some trouble, was well-placed.
It was, according to Next Gen Stats, one of the most accurate games of Jones' career. He had a completion percentage-over-expected figure of 10.2 thanks to some of those tight-window heaves. Jones' intended air yards figure, per NGS, was second in the NFL in Week 3, with his average toss traveling 12.1 yards.
Yes, there is clearly an emphasis on going long in the Patriots offense this season. Jones is now fourth in the NFL in average intended air yards (10). But there are mistakes that are the cost of doing business with that type of approach. Which is why Jones' grade lands where it does.
Quarterback: C+
Jones has to take a bit of a hit on the end-zone pick to Parker. It was a risky throw into coverage. But he probably believed Parker knew there was a chance the ball was coming his way. After getting confused at the line, it looked like Parker assumed he wasn't one of Jones' reads. That's not on the quarterback, who was hoping his receiver would be able to bat the ball away if not catch it outright.
Perhaps Jones' more glaring error in this one was linebacker Josh Bynes' pick on a hard wide-zone play-action pass. Jones didn't seem to see the second-level defender and turned it over. But, as was the case on the end-zone pick, it's worth wondering how coaching factored into that particular error.
The Patriots hadn't yet run wide zone to that point in the day. Still, they ran a wide zone fake. Not surprisingly, Ravens linebackers -- who likely saw that wide zone was not a major part of either of New England's first two games of the season -- didn't bite. Bynes was right where he needed to be to make the play. That's partly on the play-caller.
Outside of those two errors, though, Jones made multiple plays with his legs -- including recording his first-career rushing touchdown -- and he had one of his most explosive days throwing the football. He had five of what Pro Football Focus deems "big-time throws" (their most difficult and highest-graded passes). That's the most in a single game he's compiled in his young career.
His bucket throw to Parker for 40 yards in the first quarter was a beauty, and he led Parker perfectly on his first pass of the game for a 30-yard shot. His sideline dart to Parker for 25 yards was placed on a dime, as was a 36-yarder to Parker along the right sideline. The throw Jones hit to Nelson Agholor -- which Agholor eventually fumbled -- seemed dangerous but was extremely accurate. And even an incomplete throw to Parker between two defenders deep down the field, though perhaps inviting some trouble, was well-placed.
It was, according to Next Gen Stats, one of the most accurate games of Jones' career. He had a completion percentage-over-expected figure of 10.2 thanks to some of those tight-window heaves. Jones' intended air yards figure, per NGS, was second in the NFL in Week 3, with his average toss traveling 12.1 yards.
Yes, there is clearly an emphasis on going long in the Patriots offense this season. Jones is now fourth in the NFL in average intended air yards (10). But there are mistakes that are the cost of doing business with that type of approach. Which is why Jones' grade lands where it does.
I mean of course posters are looking at good QBs when they are replying to this statement:
Seems perfectly normal and reasonable for posters to discuss good QBs within this premise. Don't think anyone said it was a sure thing or even likely that Mac would turn out that way. They are refuting the statement that Josh Allen is the ONLY QB that struggled accuracy wise who turned out to be very good. That's all.
The comps are pretty straightforward I think--Dalton Bridgewater Cousins--who are all somewhat similar in terms of size athletic ability and arm strength and all reasonably accurate guys who need to be on top of their games to succeed. Dalton was ballpark a comparable guy although he had some great receivers/TEs to help him out. Bridgewater had a similar start to his career and then it went to crap when his leg almost had to be amputated. Cousins is a tough comp in the early years because Cousins played so little in years 1-3.
Maybe I'm underestimating Jones but I really think you are looking at a Dalton or Cousins, someone who can win a lot of games and every now and then even put up monster number, but things are going to have to go pretty well for that to happen.
Part of it is that a "comp" to Mac is someone who's only played a handful of years, and that's not long enough to know if they're actually gonna be great. So you kind of have to go back a little ways in order to get the full scope of a guy's career.
A reasonable comp might be Philip Rivers. Never had a rocket arm, has a bit of a shot put throwing motion.
Years 1-2 - sat the bench behind Drew Brees in San Diego.
Year 3 (2006, age 25) - 61.7%, 3,388 yds, 22 td, 9 int, 92.0 rating
Year 4 (2007, age 26) - 60.2%, 3,152 yds, 21 td, 15 int, 82.4 rating
Year 5 (2008, age 27) - 65.3%, 4,009 yds, 34 td, 11 int, 105.5 rating
So his first year as a starter was pretty good for a first year starter. Then he regressed and put up substantially worse numbers across the board. Then he had his big leap forward, at age 27, in his fifth year in the league (third as a starter).
Similar tools as Mac. Followed a growth path that included regression in year 2 as a starter. Will likely be a hall of famer when all is said and done.
A reasonable comp might be Philip Rivers. Never had a rocket arm, has a bit of a shot put throwing motion.
Years 1-2 - sat the bench behind Drew Brees in San Diego.
Year 3 (2006, age 25) - 61.7%, 3,388 yds, 22 td, 9 int, 92.0 rating
Year 4 (2007, age 26) - 60.2%, 3,152 yds, 21 td, 15 int, 82.4 rating
Year 5 (2008, age 27) - 65.3%, 4,009 yds, 34 td, 11 int, 105.5 rating
So his first year as a starter was pretty good for a first year starter. Then he regressed and put up substantially worse numbers across the board. Then he had his big leap forward, at age 27, in his fifth year in the league (third as a starter).
Similar tools as Mac. Followed a growth path that included regression in year 2 as a starter. Will likely be a hall of famer when all is said and done.
Looking at guys in the past few 10 years drafted in the 1st round, but not in the first five overall picks, who started for successful P5 teams and weren’t expected to possess high-end athleticism by NFL standards.
Kenny Pickett (2022)
Josh Rosen (2018)
Johnny Manziel (2014)
EJ Manuel (2013)
Ryan Tannehill (2012)
Brandon Weeden (2012)
The athleticism qualifier is squishy — you could argue that Dwayne Haskins belongs on this list (because he arguably wasn’t a super athlete) and Ryan Tannehill doesn’t (because he arguably was). But I think you need that qualifier so that you aren’t comparing Mac to guys like Lamar Jackson and Teddy Bridgewater (who was an amazing athlete before he got hurt).
Mac has already had a better NFL career than all the guys on my list except Tannehill. I’m still more bullish on him than most folks here, but there isn’t a lot of recent precedent for someone like him succeeding.
He had some pretty strong throws 20-25 yards down the middle of the field yesterday. That pass to Aghlor on the fumble was an absolute bullet with pinpoint accuracy on a third and long, for example. That was a superstar throw.
That's crazy.
I was sure his season was over. I guess it still could be - this is all very vague.
I'm absolutely shocked it wasn't broken. That's why non-physicians shouldn't diagnose things, I guess.
I don't know if anyone took me up on it but I'll throw ten bones to the Jimmy Fund.
I don't know if anyone took me up on it but I'll throw ten bones to the Jimmy Fund.
He looked pretty good - I wouldn’t be surprised to see an IR but maybe they think they can make it work in a shorter timeframe
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1574511061063323649
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1574511061063323649
I'm not saying it's nefarious, I'm saying it's a bad and dumb way to make comparisons to look for the outcome you want then try to fit it into a comp rather than picking the players who were similar at the start (and maybe through a year or two) and seeing where they end up.
Yeah, I think this is the right process to take, obviously samples are going to be small and Mac can always be an outlier, but making the comp based on entering the league (or post 1 year if people want) is probably a better projection tool (though still not all that good of one).
No @Cellar-Door - the reason for mentioning those other guys is because some people are basically like, omg Mac isn’t looking like a world beater right now so he probably never will be. And so when you make the other side of the argument, the side that says, look, you might be right but it’s way too early to make that judgment, you point to other guys who struggled their first couple of years then turned out really good.
It doesn’t mean he’s the same type of QB as Josh Allen, or that he’ll be as good as Drew Brees (that’s almost 100% not going to happen), but it’s not crazy to think that he’s in a growth process and that, just as many other QBs started out so so and turned out to be really good, he might follow the same trajectory.
We ALL know that the odds of him being a multiple time all pro are vanishingly small. That was true right out of the gate and obvious even to people like me who were very pro-Mac when they drafted him.
Basically we are looking for reasons to have hope in his development, and looking to other success stories gives that hope.
It doesn’t mean he’s the same type of QB as Josh Allen, or that he’ll be as good as Drew Brees (that’s almost 100% not going to happen), but it’s not crazy to think that he’s in a growth process and that, just as many other QBs started out so so and turned out to be really good, he might follow the same trajectory.
We ALL know that the odds of him being a multiple time all pro are vanishingly small. That was true right out of the gate and obvious even to people like me who were very pro-Mac when they drafted him.
Basically we are looking for reasons to have hope in his development, and looking to other success stories gives that hope.
Looking at rookie performance yields a much more promising set of comps — but every other QB on this list is either a much better athlete or has a much better arm, except maybe Minshew.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-best-rookie-quarterback-seasons-of-the-past-15-years-can-mac-jones-russell-wilson
But it's a dumb argument to just throw out any guy who improved without context. Josh Allen was maybe the worst high volume rookie QB ever, he also was a physical freak and took a huge step forward year 2. Context matters.... why did those guys struggle early and improve, what did their trajectory look like... did it happen in the last 10-15 years.
Listen if people say "there is zero chance Jones improves" yeah that's too far, but... most people AREN'T saying that, they are saying that QBs with the profile Jones has have not in recent years seen the kind of major improvements year over year that the QBs with big time arms or athleticism do, so comparing him to guys with big time athletic/arm traits, or who started their career 20+ years ago when the league was very different, isn't useful. Context matters, and it's a lot easier to project growth for guys with elite physical traits.
Yeah, though worth noting his last 3 weeks dropped him to 7th on that list puts him in the Teddy B, Burrow, Minshew grouping.
Yeah, Jones said he is taking the injury day by day, not that the injury is day to day.
IMO, this is at least 10 games and likely his season.
IMO, this is at least 10 games and likely his season.