The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread

[EricFeczko]

I thought the jokes about small sample size and how Brady and Rodgers are worse than Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson would act as a foil.

Its two games into the NFL season. NFL teams aren't linearly stacked, and different schemes have heterogeneous effects on different QBs. Even if it was linearly strong, the small sample size of 17 games means much of one's record is determined by chance.

With that being said,



https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing.htm

Even adjusted mterics need to account for rank as well. Mac Jones currently ranks 14th by adjusted metrics, showing that offenses are struggling across the board. I suspect the rank right now is more stable than the raw numbers, which is a little like saying that a kiln is colder than lava. I mean, we all know Jalen Hurts is better than the sixth ranked QB (8.01 ANY/A) and Lamar Jackson is obviously terrible and unworthy of his 9.9 ANY/A -- clearly fake stats

More seriously, I think everyone here would be surprised if Mac Jones performs like Tom Brady the rest of the season. I also think everyone would be surprised if Geno Smith continues to outperform Aaron Rodgers.

Mac has performed at a mediocre level, but we also don't know enough to see whether he can adjust.

Brees is a pretty atypical career path. Most guys who suck for two years suck forever. The hard part is that most QBs don't really improve after two years, but almost all the relevant ones do. It's tough to know how much rope to give a guy with the hope he'll get better.

There are a few different discussions going on here I think:
1) It's too early to tell what Mac's future trajectory looks like. Progress is not necessarily linear.
2) The supporting talent (both on O and the defense) is probably worse than in 2021, having lost Shaq Mason and JC Jackson and without really any major adds, I guess with the exception of Parker. Building on last year will require growth from holdover players, especially Mac. So far, we're not getting it.

It's too soon to be pessimistic about Mac's future. It's probably a little too soon to be pessimistic about the offense in 2022, but it's fair to be concerned, especially after the preseason reports weren't exactly glowing.

This is where I'm at. Unfortunately, QB aging may be flatter than most think (though this analysis should be redone for 2022), the problem is that year-to-year variance due to roster/coaching changes may obscure the flat trend, and as noted in the thread, Mac's training as a QB has undergone significant changes.

I’m a Mac fan. I think he is a leader. I think he is tough. I think he is smart. I think he will be good to very good QB.

I thought he was below average yesterday though. The throw to Hunter Henry on the opening drive was just bad. He sailed one badly over the middle to Meyers, I believe. The pick was a bad read, the dropped pick a bad decision. Video above of Humphrey running free while Mac has time and just not seeing him.

Given the turnover on the line and coaching staff, as well as the very different game plan in week 2 vs 1, I’m definitely going to remain patient. It feels, right now, like they have almost too many different options on offense so they can’t quite figure out what they are good at / want to be good at / want to do. I am optimistic that things will be more clear for them after they have 4-5 games on tape, and I expect Mac to show good strides in October and November.

If he plays the next 15 games like he played the first two, I won’t be very optimistic about his future. While I’d still give him 2024 to prove himself - at least, a decent chunk of the season - the arrow would be pointing down for me.

Same here. This year gives us an idea as to whether we need to draft another QB next season.

 

[Jimbodandy]

One of my observations about Mac is that post snap processing is still an issue - pre-snap he can diagnose very well but when something happens that he doesn't expect based on pre-snap, he is still struggling to make the right read.

The Steelers showed a blitz with the pre-snap - and then faked the blitz and then dropped into coverage. I think that Mac thought it was a blitz with quick completion to Smith that would be open, and made the quick decision pre snap that didn't allow for the play to develop and... instead the linebacker was right there on Smith.

This is a totally fair criticism. I'm not sure how much of it is seeing ghosts, but I suspect that's some of it. Bill harps on avoiding negative plays, and I think that Mac is good at making quick decisions. But he needs to avoid locking into what he read pre-snap. It was a problem last year that he was taking short when guys were open downfield, and it could be part of this drive to keep it simple and make the quick decision. If he doesn't get better at processing post-snap, some linebackers are gonna eat this year.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

In many ways Mac played a hell of a football game today, it could have gone down as one of his best games, but he cannot be trusted to play smart, clean manage-the-game football when it matters. The regression from a year ago is stunning.

 

[johnmd20]

In many ways Mac played a hell of a football game today, it could have gone down as one of his best games, but he cannot be trusted to play smart, clean manage-the-game football when it matters. The regression from a year ago is stunning.

The fact that you immediately ran to this thread to hammer Mac leads me to believe he's going to be awesome for the rest of the season.

 

[radsoxfan]

Best case is bad high ankle sprain, 6-8 weeks.

If he broke his fibula were headed towards season over territory at this point.

 

[BaseballJones]

The fact that you immediately ran to this thread to hammer Mac leads me to believe he's going to be awesome for the rest of the season.

Not if he goes on IR he isn't.

 

[johnmd20]

Not if he goes on IR he isn't.

Can't argue with this.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I don’t think he’s gonna be The Guy. He’s not smart enough with his decisions.

 

[soxhop411]

Best case is bad high ankle sprain, 6-8 weeks.

If he broke his fibula were headed towards season over territory at this point.

ACL is possible as well?
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisGearyOrtho/status/1574127305240330241

 

[radsoxfan]

ACL is possible as well?
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisGearyOrtho/status/1574127305240330241

I'll be honest I only saw one view but looked like he got rolled up on with an eversion injury. High ankle sprain +/- fibula/tib fracture.

Doesn't strike me as Achilles or ACL but if it's either one of those he is definitely gone for the year.

 

[ifmanis5]

View: https://twitter.com/GregABedard/status/1574129258146009088

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The fact that you immediately ran to this thread to hammer Mac leads me to believe he's going to be awesome for the rest of the season.

I would have happily taken that, but done for the year seems like the reality.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

That leg is broken. Well, top ten draft pick upcoming.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

That leg is broken. Well, top ten draft pick upcoming.

Do we want Stroud or Young?

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I am no doctor, but... that's exactly what my leg looked like when I snapped my fibula like a piece of kindling.

 

[radsoxfan]

Very good chance we're on the Trey Lance spectrum of injury.

Like I said before, hard to imagine he's not out 6-8 weeks with a bad high ankle sprain at minimum.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

I'll be honest I only saw one view but looked like he got rolled up on with an eversion injury. High ankle sprain +/- fibula/tib fracture.

Doesn't strike me as Achilles or ACL but if it's either one of those he is definitely gone for the year.

Yeah that looked like bone not tissue from the replay.

 

[Arroyoyo]

Hey maybe we can trade for Jimmy G…

…ah nvm.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

That leg is broken. Well, top ten draft pick upcoming.

How could he hop off the field if it is broken? Could it have hairline fractured and then broke putting pressure on it?

 

[Arroyoyo]

With the amount of pain he was in that can’t be Achilles (my initial assumption) or a sprain. He’s clearly writhing in pain there.

Break.

 

[JOBU]

That leg is broken. Well, top ten draft pick upcoming.

We all know BB is going to trade that thing.

 

[radsoxfan]

Yeah that looked like bone not tissue from the replay.

It's going to be tissue 100%.

Syndesmotic ligaments are torn, just depends if he also snapped fibula or pulled of a piece of his posterior or medial malleolus along with it.

 

[Ed Hillel]

How could he hop off the field if it is broken? Could it have hairline fractured and then broke putting pressure on it?

Well…he hopped on the leg that wasn’t broken?

Syndesmotic ligaments are torn, just depends if he also snapped fibula or pulled of a piece of his posterior or medial malleolus along with it.

Took the words right out of my mouth.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

How could he hop off the field if it is broken? Could it have hairline fractured and then broke putting pressure on it?

Because he was hopping on the leg he didn't break.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Hm. If Agholor doesn't cough that up, maybe Mac's fibula is still in one piece.

 

[Groovenstein]

With somebody in the game thread having mentioned team doctor James Woods, this feels like an “if he’s lucky, Easter” situation.

 

[ZMart100]

It's going to be tissue 100%.

Syndesmotic ligaments are torn, just depends if he also snapped fibula or pulled of a piece of his posterior or medial malleolus along with it.

You're just making up words now.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

Because he was hopping on the leg he didn't break.

Yeah I know. But I imagine hopping around on one leg is pretty fucking painful when the other leg is broken. I've helped carry people off mountains with broken lower legs, and any jouncing of the litter/stretcher was typically met with howls of pain.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Yeah I know. But I imagine hopping around on one leg is pretty fucking painful when the other leg is broken. I've helped people off mountains with broken lower legs and any jouncing of the litter/stretcher was typically met with howls of pain.

Oh, there was plenty of that. Zoom in on the face:


View: https://twitter.com/GregABedard/status/1574129258146009088

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I'll bet $10 to the Jimmy Fund that there's a broken bone.

 

[radsoxfan]

You're just making up words now.

100%

If I said he tore the stretchy sheet between the bones and might have broken the outside or inside ankle bone my salary gets cut in half.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Seems like #93 of BAL got tripped up on the impact of the tackle, leading to an awkward all

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kI-e8zcU5FY

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

Oh, there was plenty of that. Zoom in on the face:

Right, but before that he hopped all the way across the field with no help and he wasn't screaming. That's why I'm wondering if perhaps it was a hairline fracture and then displaced completely after he tried to put weight on it. (It just seems amazing to me that he hopped across the field after seeing the pics of him on the stairs.)

 

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

Yeah I’m at the game and initially thought it was an Achilles but after seeing the replay he clearly broke it. Minimum 8-10 weeks out

 

[rodderick]

Mac played a very gutsy game and made several big boy throws, he just keeps having these terrible brain farts. The picks he's throwing aren't even close, man. And he got away with one of their second half TD drive that should've been a huge return too. Hope the injury isn't overly serious, we need him to get more game action this season, his development is far and away the most important thing for this team.

 

[stp]

Right, but before that he hopped all the way across the field with no help and he wasn't screaming. That's why I'm wondering if perhaps it was a hairline fracture and then displaced completely after he tried to put weight on it. (It just seems amazing to me that he hopped across the field after seeing the pics of him on the stairs.)

It looked to me like he was screaming.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Mac played a very gutsy game and made several big boy throws, he just keeps having these terrible brain farts. The picks he's throwing aren't even close, man. And he got away with one of their second half TD drive that should've been a huge return too. Hope the injury isn't overly serious, we need him to get more game action this season, his development is far and away the most important thing for this team.

I was very bullish on Mac after last year, but what I see from him this year is regression rather than development.

When was the last time a Patriots season was effectively over in September? 2000? The early pre-Parecells 1990s?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Yeah I’m at the game and initially thought it was an Achilles but after seeing the replay he clearly broke it. Minimum 8-10 weeks out

You owe us all $10

 

[axx]

I was very bullish on Mac after last year, but what I see from him this year is regression rather than development.

When was the last time a Patriots season was effectively over in September? 2000? The early pre-Parecells 1990s?

2008?

 

[Ale Xander]

The fact that you immediately ran to this thread to hammer Mac leads me to believe he's going to be awesome for the rest of the season.

As a patient, sure

 

[JOBU]

2008?

They were playing for a playoff birth in week 17 though. 11-6 and missed the playoffs.

 

[Preacher]

Yeah I know. But I imagine hopping around on one leg is pretty fucking painful when the other leg is broken. I've helped carry people off mountains with broken lower legs, and any jouncing of the litter/stretcher was typically met with howls of pain.

I broke my ankle at a friend’s graduation party when I was in high school. I had to hop three houses down the street to my parents’ car. They seemed intent on finishing their drinks before deciding to drive me to the ER. It was definitely not a fun experience. Ended up having to get a screw to bring the bones back together.

 

[Ale Xander]

Yeah I’m at the game and initially thought it was an Achilles but after seeing the replay he clearly broke it. Minimum 8-10 weeks out

Broke what?

$10 check is in the mail

 

[bsj]

Mac's decision making is worse than last year.

 

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

Broke what?

$10 check is in the mail

Distal fibula, maybe medial malleolus too. If it’s his syndesmosis (the ligament between the two bones) then it’s more like 12 weeks

 

[Ale Xander]

Distal fibula, maybe medial malleolus too. If it’s his syndesmosis (the ligament between the two bones) then it’s more like 12 weeks

Crap
thanks

 

[Eddie Jurak]

2008?

Nope. The Pats went 8-3 in their last 11 games that year, including an 18-15 loss to Indy and a 34-31 OT loss to the Jets. Had they won either of those, or had Miami or Baltimore lost one more, they would have been in.

 

[Bongorific]

That’s a dirty play by Campbell. Jumped high and dragged him down well after ball was released.

 

[gattman]

Nope. The Pats went 8-3 in their last 11 games that year, including an 18-15 loss to Indy and a 34-31 OT loss to the Jets. Had they won either of those, or had Miami or Baltimore lost one more, they would have been in.

I was very bullish on Mac after last year, but what I see from him this year is regression rather than development.

When was the last time a Patriots season was effectively over in September? 2000? The early pre-Parecells 1990s?

Yup. 2000. Before that 1995. When Bledsoe got hurt (separated his shoulder) and wasn’t the same the rest of the season. They finished 5-11. Feels kinda like that. Hopefully 2023 is like 1996. But with less of that welfare fraud Favre.

 

[Gash Prex]

Anybody suggesting the Pats are going to tank to pick a QB has clearly not been paying attention for the last 20 years