I know they're different people and different players, but the Mac Jones - Joe Burrow comp is probably not a terrible one.
Size:
- Burrow: 6'4", 221 lbs
- Mac: 6'3", 217 lbs
(Very similarly-sized)
Last college season:
- Burrow (15-0, national champs): 76.3%, 5,671 yds, 10.8 y/a, 60 td, 6 int (that TD number is impossibly large)
- Mac (15-0, national champs): 77.4%, 4,500 yds, 11.2 y/a, 41 td, 4 int
(Both were ridiculously good their last years in college. Burrow got more yds and TD, but Mac had higher completion percentage and yards per attempt. I'd say Burrow's season was better, but Mac's is as close as you can get to it.)
Skill position teammates:
- Burrow: Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Thaddeus Moss, Terrance Marshall Jr, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Mac: DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, John Metchie, Najee Harris
(I mean, both guys had absolute ELITE skill players to work with. Hard to say which group is better, but I'd go with Burrow's, but not by much. Pretty incredible teams, both of them. I'd love to have seen 2019 LSU go up against 2020 Alabama.)
Scouting report:
- Burrow: Throws with great anticipation. Excellent accuracy. Very intelligent. Moves well within the pocket. Fearless under pressure. Doesn't possess elite arm strength, and of all his traits, arm strength considered his biggest weakness.
- Mac: Very intelligent. Exceptionally accurate. Savvy pocket passer, not a runner, but will take what's there on the ground as needed. Doesn't possess elite arm strength.
(So I mean, the scouting reports were pretty similar.)
First NFL season:
- Burrow (age 24): 65.3%, 2,688 yds, 6.7 y/a, 13 td, 5 int, 89.8 rating
- Mac (age 23): 67.6%, 3,801 yds, 7.3 y/a, 22 td, 13 int, 92.5 rating
(Burrow got hurt which cost him some games, but overall Mac's rookie season was a little better.)
First NFL season skill position teammates:
- Burrow: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, AJ Green, Joe Mixon, Giovanni Bernard
- Mac: Meyers, Bourne, Henry, Agholor, Damien Harris, Jonnu Smith
(Obviously Burrow's skill position teammates improved dramatically when Chase came on board. But I'd still give him the edge in terms of talent around him his rookie year. Hopefully the Pats can make improvements this offseason.)
Now let's look at Burrow's progression from year 1 to year 2 in the NFL:
2020: 264-404 (65.3%), 2,688 yds, 6.7 y/a, 5.2 any/a, 13 td, (3.2%) 5 int (1.2%), 89.8 rating
2021: 366-520 (70.4%), 4,611 yds, 8.9 y/a, 7.4 any/a, 34 td (6.5%), 14 int (2.7%), 108.3 rating
What changed for Burrow?
1. Health. He was healthy this year instead of missing a bunch of games.
2. Experience. He had a year in the NFL under his belt, and that's huge.
3. Physical improvement. His arm strength and throwing power improved. Still not elite, but improved.
4. Ja'Marr Chase. Obviously adding a receiver of his caliber was ENORMOUS for Burrow's production. I bet it would do something similar for Mac.
Mac already had good health, though he may have been banged up some late in the season. Still, he played every game so that won't be an improvement - in fact, we can anticipate that area getting worse as he's bound to miss SOME time at some point. He definitely will benefit from experience. No doubt he'll be smarter and wiser and more NFL-acclimated going into year 2. I also believe he will improve physically. Arm strength should develop at least some. He will never have Pat Mahomes' arm, but he won't need to. He just needs to improve. And that last point...that's the big question mark. It's doubtful that NE will add someone like Chase to bolster the receiving corps. I mean, rookie year, Chase was elite. They could get Mac some upgrade somewhere possibly, but more likely, he's going to have to work with what he's got, which is a hell of a lot less than what Burrow currently has. So if Mac approximates Burrow's year 2 numbers next season with a much lesser set of skill position teammates, credit to Mac. I don't think he'll get there, but I do think he will improve on this year's numbers.
Assuming similar health to this year, I'd expect Mac to put up something like: 374-550 (68.0%), 4,200 yds, 7.6 y/a, 30 td, 10 int, 101.2 rating
