The latest injuries: got to admit it's getting better, a little better all the time

The Gray Eagle

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Pivetta felt fine after throwing on Saturday and will make a rehab start this Thursday.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/04/intense-red-sox-starter-likely-to-make-rehab-start-thursday.html

Pivetta said he felt sharp.
“Sharpness perspective, velo perspective, everything was really good,” Pivetta said. “Body-wise, really, really good.”
Both Triple-A Worcester and Double-A Portland are home Thursday. It seems likely he will make the rehab start in Worcester.
If that start goes well, he could be available on by May 7, when the Red Sox start a series in Atlanta.

Some fantasy site says Bello is "making great progress."
https://www.rotoballer.com/player-news/brayan-bello-making-great-progress/1357850

If he comes off the IL as soon as he is eligible, that would also be around the start of that Atlanta series.

That would be a tough lineup for these guys to face right off the injured list, but better them than a bullpen game or AAA starter.
 

sezwho

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Why is that weird? I root for every player wearing the uniform. They do well, the team does well. I want them all to put up their 95 percentile season every season, be perennial All-Stars. Of course you’re rooting for him. If you’re not, why are you a Red Sox fan?
Feels a little weird (I’m rooting too) when half the board wants to shoot him into the sun.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Feels a little weird (I’m rooting too) when half the board wants to shoot him into the sun.
I don't get this. I don't think anyone on the board is rooting against Dalbec or any other player. I'm certainly not.

There is a difference between having an opinion that you don't think someone is capable at their job vs not wanting them to succeed. Aaron Judge is entirely capable and I root for his failure 162 games a year and more fervently in the playoffs. I don't really think that David Hamilton, for instance, is a MLB caliber player. Though I'm hoping he proves me wrong by being Ozzie Smith.

All that said, really looking forward to getting Grissom back. The additions of he and Cooper should do a good amount to lengthen the lineup. Cooper probably won't do much to improve the defense (as much as dWAR can be trusted, probably make it a small bit worse) but his bat should be enough of an improvement to positively net out beyond what other options existed.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/coopega03.shtml
 

sezwho

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I don't get this. I don't think anyone on the board is rooting against Dalbec or any other player. I'm certainly not.

There is a difference between having an opinion that you don't think someone is capable at their job vs not wanting them to succeed. Aaron Judge is entirely capable and I root for his failure 162 games a year and more fervently in the playoffs. I don't really think that David Hamilton, for instance, is a MLB caliber player. Though I'm hoping he proves me wrong by being Ozzie Smith.

All that said, really looking forward to getting Grissom back. The additions of he and Cooper should do a good amount to lengthen the lineup. Cooper probably won't do much to improve the defense (as much as dWAR can be trusted, probably make it a small bit worse) but his bat should be enough of an improvement to positively net out beyond what other options existed.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/coopega03.shtml
Sure, and I understand the distinction. At this point, I just feel like the majority of the board is no longer wishing for him to succeed but rather just go away and be replaced by someone better.

That’s not the same as wishing he would fail, which I agree none of the Sox fans on this board are doing. Even the ones who want him to go ‘away’ generally want him to find success there.

I think we probably agree, I’m just parsing something really finely instead of doing my actual job : )

Edit - several morning typos fixed
 
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Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Sure, and I understand the distinction. At this point, I just feel like the majority of the board is no longer wishing for him to succeed but rather just go away and be replaced by someone better.

That’s not the same as wishing he would fail, which I agree none of the Sox fans on this board are doing. Even the ones who want him to go ‘away’ generally want him to find success there.

I think we probably agree, I’m just parsing something really finely instead of doing my actual job : )

Edit - several morning typos fixed
Totally respect that. Don't we all!

But yeah, of course it would be great if he would succeed HERE, I just feel at this point there is so much evidence that it's not going to happen (regressing for three straight years, regardless of the numbers he puts up in AAA) that hoping the organization will replace him with someone better seems justified.

Which - to be fair - they have. Casas is obviously better; Cooper should be and has been throughout an entire career. This isn't anything personal I have against Dalbec, to be clear. Assuming it came down to the two, I'm actually pleased that they chose to keep him on the roster and get rid of Reyes. At least Dalbec has been fielding his position well this year while sucking with the bat - and "every day at bats" in AAA highly likely mean nothing in terms of Dalbec's development. Reyes on the other hand has managed to play 4 different positions and all terribly while being a nothing with the bat as well.

From an "optics" standpoint there is no reason to demote the guy actually doing something well. From a baseball standpoint there is no reason to actually demote the guy doing something well as opposed to the guy whom has been awful at everything (aside from relief pitching) just to keep a bad player that probably won't have a MLB job on the MLB roster. If for some reason Boston finds itself in desperate need of a 30plus year old not really MLB player, I don't believe Schoop or Alberto have jobs at present, and hey, at least Alberto can be terrible with outfield positions as well! Heck, he's even pitched more.
 

YTF

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Totally respect that. Don't we all!

But yeah, of course it would be great if he would succeed HERE, I just feel at this point there is so much evidence that it's not going to happen (regressing for three straight years, regardless of the numbers he puts up in AAA) that hoping the organization will replace him with someone better seems justified.

Which - to be fair - they have. Casas is obviously better; Cooper should be and has been throughout an entire career. This isn't anything personal I have against Dalbec, to be clear. Assuming it came down to the two, I'm actually pleased that they chose to keep him on the roster and get rid of Reyes. At least Dalbec has been fielding his position well this year while sucking with the bat - and "every day at bats" in AAA highly likely mean nothing in terms of Dalbec's development. Reyes on the other hand has managed to play 4 different positions and all terribly while being a nothing with the bat as well.

From an "optics" standpoint there is no reason to demote the guy actually doing something well. From a baseball standpoint there is no reason to actually demote the guy doing something well as opposed to the guy whom has been awful at everything (aside from relief pitching) just to keep a bad player that probably won't have a MLB job on the MLB roster. If for some reason Boston finds itself in desperate need of a 30plus year old not really MLB player, I don't believe Schoop or Alberto have jobs at present, and hey, at least Alberto can be terrible with outfield positions as well! Heck, he's even pitched more.
I largely agree with this yet I would still like to see him back in WOOstah as long as he's not taking regular ABs from someone else. The reason being is that I'd like to see the guy get back on track. I'd like to see him be the best version of the player that he can be if only to have another team see something in him so that the Sox might be able to move him for another Breslow project. Personally I think that if Dalbec has any chance to have a career in baseball he needs to get out of Boston. Just from the eye test, in some of his ABs at Fenway he looked like he was just going through the motions and doing so poorly.
 

billy ashley

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People should root for Dalbec and every young player. What he's doing is incredibly difficult

Dude is an enormously talented baseball player who was successful enough to get a shot in the majors. Given his draft pedigree and his MLB service time, he's done more than okay for himself, but he's probably out tens of millions of dollars for merely bringing among the 99.995% best players on the planet, instead of 99.999.

Over his career he's probably netted between 1-2 million dollars between his 650 k bonus and MLB service time... and that's awesome and all... but it's not he hasn't spent 8 years in the organization earning that. If he washes out after this season (doubtful) he'd be entirely done, someone probably signs him for depth) he needs to find a regular job (if not in baseball). Dalbec is lucky for guys in his situation (quad A types) in that he was a well-regarded college player and earned a substantial bonus but even then, there are posters on this board who've cleared that much salary over the past 8 years, and don't have to worry about changing careers in the next 30 months or so.

Given how hard it is to move up the ladder, I root for each one of these guys to have long, productive careers.
 
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Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I largely agree with this yet I would still like to see him back in WOOstah as long as he's not taking regular ABs from someone else. The reason being is that I'd like to see the guy get back on track. I'd like to see him be the best version of the player that he can be if only to have another team see something in him so that the Sox might be able to move him for another Breslow project. Personally I think that if Dalbec has any chance to have a career in baseball he needs to get out of Boston. Just from the eye test, in some of his ABs at Fenway he looked like he was just going through the motions and doing so poorly.
Oh, for sure. I mean, if the Red Sox were to go out and get someone like Abrahom Toro (Hernandez) from the As for whatever fringe prospect he'd cost then sure, send Dalbec to Worcester. Nothing wrong with that at all. I do applaud them for keeping a player doing something passably in the majors on the major league roster (ie at least trying to win games) as opposed to sending him down and keeping a terrible player just because he's able to be terrible at many positions and doesn't have options.

I don't disagree that Dalbec would probably be better served (for himself) on a small market team that can't afford the Garret Cooper's of the world. I'm just saying that compared to Pablo Reyes, I think Dablec is the better of two not really MLB options, and I'm glad that they chose to keep that player.
 

YTF

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Oh, for sure. I mean, if the Red Sox were to go out and get someone like Abrahom Toro (Hernandez) from the As for whatever fringe prospect he'd cost then sure, send Dalbec to Worcester. Nothing wrong with that at all. I do applaud them for keeping a player doing something passably in the majors on the major league roster (ie at least trying to win games) as opposed to sending him down and keeping a terrible player just because he's able to be terrible at many positions and doesn't have options.

I don't disagree that Dalbec would probably be better served (for himself) on a small market team that can't afford the Garret Cooper's of the world. I'm just saying that compared to Pablo Reyes, I think Dablec is the better of two not really MLB options, and I'm glad that they chose to keep that player.
I agree with Dalbec over Reyes. ATM I would rather have Dalbec backing up the corners and other MI options returning or soon to return make Reyes the odd man out. Ideally I like Reyes slightly better than Hamilton, but Hamilton still has options and perhaps his speed makes him an add-on piece to some future trade.
 

Rovin Romine

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That’s not the same as wishing he would fail, which I agree none of the Sox fans on this board are doing.
There was a certain eager gleefulness to counting the Ks piling up, plus no shortage of cherry picking the tail end of last year and the beginning of this.

In short, I wouldn't be surprised if a number of people were rooting for him to fail.

I agree with Dalbec over Reyes. ATM I would rather have Dalbec backing up the corners and other MI options returning or soon to return make Reyes the odd man out. Ideally I like Reyes slightly better than Hamilton, but Hamilton still has options and perhaps his speed makes him an add-on piece to some future trade.
Yep. Mentioned elsewhere, but there was good news re: Romy as of the 27th - less pain/discomfort to the point where he was taking swings in the batting cage. I think that in the abstract Reyes and Romy have overlapping skill-sets, with Romy maybe having the edge in defense, and perhaps offensive upside. So if you're only keeping one, the choice is to DFA Reyes now and keep the younger Romy.
 

moondog80

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There was a certain eager gleefulness to counting the Ks piling up, plus no shortage of cherry picking the tail end of last year and the beginning of this.
Citing his total MLB experience over the last two (or in many cases, three) seasons doesn’t seem like cherry picking to me, but YMMV.

Smallish sample perhaps. But that’s a different thing.
 
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Rovin Romine

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Citing his total MLB experience over the last two (or in many cases, three) seasons doesn’t seem like cherry picking to me, but YMMV.

Smallish sample perhaps. But that’s a different thing.
But it is.

The reason why is that Dalbec has an established body of work at the ML and MiL level. If anyone is going to fairly analyze him as a player all that data is relevant, weighted toward what he's done recently, and weighted by the level of competition.

If Dalbec had OPS'd .650 at AAA last year, I'm sure that would have been used by some people to support whatever conclusion they were looking to justify. But he didn't. So they ignored it. And that is cherry-picking. (Same thing when people dismiss any splits, which might suggest a bench/platoon role.)

I'm not saying that a more complete assessment of Dalbec's swing patterns or the like would have led to a different conclusion about his viability as a ML hitter. But I am saying the gleeful counting of his Ks from last September and this April isn't really "an analysis" anyone on this board should respect.

Personally I very much doubt that sort of thing was part of "rooting for" Bobby Dalbec. Which is fine - nobody has to root for the guy in any and all circumstances. (I personally don't want him on the field in anything other than a defensive role until he turns his batting around.)
 

nvalvo

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If Dalbec had OPS'd .650 at AAA last year, I'm sure that would have been used by some people to support whatever conclusion they were looking to justify. But he didn't. So they ignored it. And that is cherry-picking. (Same thing when people dismiss any splits, which might suggest a bench/platoon role.)
EXACTLY.

It’s downright weird that his recent AAA OPS starts with a 9 and his MLB OPS starts with a 3 (after his recent hit streak.)

Of course the pitchers are better in MLB. But that much better? Most hitters don’t lose so much coming up from AAA.

The Cubs’ Michael Busch, another late-20s corner IF slugger type, had a Dalbecian 1.049 in AAA last year (for the Dodgers). Now he has a very un-Dalbecian .840 OPS in MLB. He’s walking less and striking out more (the pitchers are way better!) and his OPS is .300 points lower, but his quality of contact has remained high. That’s more typical!

He’s better than Dalbec, but if Dalbec could post a .200/.300/.425 line, we’d be delighted and he’d be starting at 1B. That shouldn’t be a huge lift for a guy who hit .269/.381/.557 in 500 AAA PAs last year. Sure, he’ll lose some walks and strike out even more. But you’d expect the power to transfer.

Instead, he’s given us .137/.185/.177. That’s an ISO of .040, down from ~.290! What has happened to him?
 

jon abbey

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I actually think people are overrating the relevance of 2023 International League hitting numbers. The entire league went nuts hitting (partly because of an automatic strike zone being used for the first time), the whole league had a collective OPS around .800. Some Yankee/Scranton examples:

Franchy Cordero: .879 OPS in 292 ABs, out of baseball now as best I can tell.

Kole Calhoun: .919 OPS in 89 ABs, now retired.

Billy McKinney: .899 OPS in 135 ABs, now doing meh in AAA for PIT.

I'm not saying Dalbec's 2023 in AAA is completely meaningless, I am saying that hitting stats in the IL in 2023 were close to meaningless overall though.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Valdez and Rafaela tore up Worcester last year, too. The gap between AAA and the big leagues is massive. Projections for Dalbec by most systems were a well below 700 OPS, so I don’t think him being mediocre to bad is all that surprising.
 

moondog80

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I’d guess that not hitting in AAA is much more correlated with not hitting in MLB than hitting in AAA is with hitting in MLB. Especially for a 28 year old.
 

simplicio

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But it is.

The reason why is that Dalbec has an established body of work at the ML and MiL level. If anyone is going to fairly analyze him as a player all that data is relevant, weighted toward what he's done recently, and weighted by the level of competition.

If Dalbec had OPS'd .650 at AAA last year, I'm sure that would have been used by some people to support whatever conclusion they were looking to justify. But he didn't. So they ignored it. And that is cherry-picking. (Same thing when people dismiss any splits, which might suggest a bench/platoon role.)

I'm not saying that a more complete assessment of Dalbec's swing patterns or the like would have led to a different conclusion about his viability as a ML hitter. But I am saying the gleeful counting of his Ks from last September and this April isn't really "an analysis" anyone on this board should respect.

Personally I very much doubt that sort of thing was part of "rooting for" Bobby Dalbec. Which is fine - nobody has to root for the guy in any and all circumstances. (I personally don't want him on the field in anything other than a defensive role until he turns his batting around.)
I disagree with your analysis of Dalbec's 2023 entirely. He put up big milb numbers, but the context there was the record offensive numbers across the league due to ABS implementation, yet despite that his K rate jumped to what it had been in Boston, and 4th highest of all qualified hitters in AAA. That's a really major red flag, and it was no surprise that it rose to over 50% when he came back up in the fall.

Finding an upgrade over the winter was kind of the lowest hanging fruit and should have been an obvious area of need. In my mind failing to do so is the only misstep Breslow's made.
 

mikcou

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I actually think people are overrating the relevance of 2023 International League hitting numbers. The entire league went nuts hitting (partly because of an automatic strike zone being used for the first time), the whole league had a collective OPS around .800. Some Yankee/Scranton examples:

Franchy Cordero: .879 OPS in 292 ABs, out of baseball now as best I can tell.

Kole Calhoun: .919 OPS in 89 ABs, now retired.

Billy McKinney: .899 OPS in 135 ABs, now doing meh in AAA for PIT.

I'm not saying Dalbec's 2023 in AAA is completely meaningless, I am saying that hitting stats in the IL in 2023 were close to meaningless overall though.
Agreed. AAA numbers from last year (and possibly this year) are significantly distorted by the automatic ball/strike calls. It clearly strongly favored hitters in having a certain zone and was reflected in hitting stats getting better across the board (OPS, BB%, K%, etc.).

There also seemed to be other things going on in the International League last year, but we all need to at least acknowledge that BB% and K% rates were significant better across the board in AAA last year and while I cant say definitively that it was caused by the automatic strike zone, I dont think its a large leap to conclude that.
 

The Gray Eagle

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If Yoshida goes on the IL, I wonder who they would bring up. They might need to add one of these Woo Sox guys to the 40-man and call them up to the bigs:
Niko Kavadas is basically a Vogelbach DH/1B type who has a 1.089 OPS.
Chase Meidroth plays third, second and can cover SS. He's currently got a .453 OBP in 71 at-bats.
There's also Nick Sogard, a utility IF type with a .362 OBP. He looked like a solid young player in spring training.
And there's Nathan Hickey, a LHH who was a catcher but struggled defensively and has been playing 1B and DH. He's only got a .723 OPS so far but has hit well previously.

Adding one of these guys to the 40-man complicates things going forward, so they might not bring up any of them. Or maybe Yoshida won't go on the IL at all? But the lineup continues to look really thin as the injuries continue, and not many teams are interested in making trades in April, so...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If Yoshida goes on the IL, I wonder who they would bring up. They might need to add one of these Woo Sox guys to the 40-man and call them up to the bigs:
Niko Kavadas is basically a Vogelbach DH/1B type who has a 1.089 OPS.
Chase Meidroth plays third, second and can cover SS. He's currently got a .453 OBP in 71 at-bats.
There's also Nick Sogard, a utility IF type with a .362 OBP. He looked like a solid young player in spring training.
And there's Nathan Hickey, a LHH who was a catcher but struggled defensively and has been playing 1B and DH. He's only got a .723 OPS so far but has hit well previously.

Adding one of these guys to the 40-man complicates things going forward, so they might not bring up any of them. Or maybe Yoshida won't go on the IL at all? But the lineup continues to look really thin as the injuries continue, and not many teams are interested in making trades in April, so...
If Yoshida needs the IL, it would make sense for him to be the corresponding move when they finally activate Grissom.
 

simplicio

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On one hand, I wouldn't mid getting a look at Meidroth, but on the other I'd rather not stall his development if he can't get any playing time.
 

6-5 Sadler

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I swear Dalbec* has a voodoo doll of every Red Sox in his locker.

*And since we must always remember to give proper weighting to his past performance, he also had an OPS of .938 in AAA in 2023.
 

Rovin Romine

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I swear Dalbec* has a voodoo doll of every Red Sox in his locker.

*And since we must always remember to give proper weighting to his past performance, he also had an OPS of .938 in AAA in 2023.

Yes but. . .maybe Cora is running scared here.

I don't know if it's occurred to anyone, but the only guys on the roster who haven't been injured are the guys who aren't actively competing for Robert V. Dalbec's spot.

Story - RHH, O'Neill - RHH, Casas - 1B, Devers - 3B, Romy RHH MI, Refsnyder RHH, Grissom RHH.

It all fits. And I bet Pivetta looked at him funny once.

If I'm Alex Cora, I'm penciling in Voodoo Bobby every day without question.

If I'm Pablo Reyes, I'm going to tread very very carefully around Bobby. And checking for wax dolls with hair and fingernail clippings pressed into them.
 

Rovin Romine

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Ha tried dunking on @Rovin Romine and ended up stealing your joke!

and just like that Cooper is out and Bobby is in.
(I thought it was funny.)

But Voodoo Bobby is getting absurd. First, Pablo Reyes is DFA'd, then Grissom is sick so there's no 26 move, and now Cooper got his hand smashed in his first game.

We should look at WOR 2023 for suspicious injuries for 1B/3B/DH types.
 

nvalvo

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I actually think people are overrating the relevance of 2023 International League hitting numbers. The entire league went nuts hitting (partly because of an automatic strike zone being used for the first time), the whole league had a collective OPS around .800. Some Yankee/Scranton examples:

Franchy Cordero: .879 OPS in 292 ABs, out of baseball now as best I can tell.

Kole Calhoun: .919 OPS in 89 ABs, now retired.

Billy McKinney: .899 OPS in 135 ABs, now doing meh in AAA for PIT.

I'm not saying Dalbec's 2023 in AAA is completely meaningless, I am saying that hitting stats in the IL in 2023 were close to meaningless overall though.
Okay, this is the first thing I’ve seen that makes any of this make sense. Thanks.
 

Hank Scorpio

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This Voodoo Bobby stuff is nonsense.

The real explanation is that Chris Sale was some sort of Passively Active Green Mile Bad Juju Lightning Rod.

Imagine you're Chris Sale. You're riding a bicycle. All of a sudden, you experience an intense flash and are whisked away from reality. In your mind's eye you see Rafael Devers take a fastball on the wrist. Raffy goes down, writhing in agony. And it's all so real. You see it. You hear the crowd. It's as if you're riding your bicycle across the infield at Fenway Park as this all unfolds. And then everything around you freezes. And it plays back, in reverse. Raffy rises, the ball rolls towards him, leaps in the air, ricochets off his wrist, and back into the pitcher's hand. And it all fades away. You're Chris Sale. You know what happens next. A bird flies by, startling a pedestrian. The pedestrian sprawls backwards, knocking over a nearby ladder. The ladder falls, striking a potted plant on someone's window sill. The potted plant startles a cat, which runs in front of your bicycle. You swerve, hit a pothole, and fall off the bike. You land on your wrist, and hear a loud crack. And then pain. Horrible pain.

The news reaches SoSH, and folks are incredulous. Some are angry with you for riding the bicycle. Some curse Dombrowski for signing you to that extension. But you know the truth. Dombrowski knew too.

That night, Rafael Devers starts at third base. He's brushed back a bit on a fastball just under his wrists. But he's just fine. It's a thankless job being Chris Sale.

That's what we had. That's what we traded away.

And now, no one is untouchable.
 

Sox Puppet

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I swear Dalbec* has a voodoo doll of every Red Sox in his locker.

*And since we must always remember to give proper weighting to his past performance, he also had an OPS of .938 in AAA in 2023.
Yes, and let's also never forget to mention that he was really good in August 2021.

I love the nickname Voodoo Bobby, but I'm also going to start referring to him as Rasputin. He's proving to be a very hard man to "kill" (DFA).