The Kutting Edge

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Not that long ago there would have been a "Kutter Crawford... what do we have here?" type of thread by some poster that really understood pitching with some Pitch F/X analysis or some other stat info and some scouting reports.
I'm not that.
But I am becoming intrigued with Crawford who I had written off as a likely trade-bait candidate with inflated numbers likely to crash back to earth. Now I'm not so sure.
Anyone here have any thoughts or insights onto him as someone to ink into a future rotation? Any expectations should be pretty low at this point but I'm thinking he should definitely be penciled in lightly as the no. 5 starter for '23 (assuming he doesn't get traded).
'23--- Sale, Paxton, Crawford (that's weird...), Pivetta, Whitlock (with Winchowski, Seabold as the 6 and 7 in AAA). Does anyone feel okay with that? I actually do pending how Pivetta pitches from here until the end of the season (and/or playoffs?).

I still think at this point the Sox should be sellers and Eovaldi dealt in a package with Winchowski or Groome to net a decent return, but if not... and Sale and Paxton can't contribute AND the Sox somehow squeeze into the playoffs.... I can't see a playoff rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta and Wacha/Crawford with Hill/Winckowski as the rarely used no. 4 doing too well. But of course crazy shit can happen.

 

[nvalvo]

Not that long ago there would have been a "Kutter Crawford... what do we have here?" type of thread by some poster that really understood pitching with some Pitch F/X analysis or some other stat info and some scouting reports.
I'm not that.
But I am becoming intrigued with Crawford who I had written off as a likely trade-bait candidate with inflated numbers likely to crash back to earth. Now I'm not so sure.
Anyone here have any thoughts or insights onto him as someone to ink into a future rotation? Any expectations should be pretty low at this point but I'm thinking he should definitely be penciled in lightly as the no. 5 starter for '23 (assuming he doesn't get traded).
'23--- Sale, Paxton, Crawford (that's weird...), Pivetta, Whitlock (with Winchowski, Seabold as the 6 and 7 in AAA). Does anyone feel okay with that? I actually do pending how Pivetta pitches from here until the end of the season (and/or playoffs?).

I still think at this point the Sox should be sellers and Eovaldi dealt in a package with Winchowski or Groome to net a decent return, but if not... and Sale and Paxton can't contribute AND the Sox somehow squeeze into the playoffs.... I can't see a playoff rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta and Wacha/Crawford with Hill/Winckowski as the rarely used no. 4 doing too well. But of course crazy shit can happen.

I am also not that poster, but I must say that Crawford piqued my interest in his stint in the Dominican Winter League. The pitching isn't always great in that league, but he was flat out dominant against some pretty respectable lineups.

Since his rocky April (7 IP of 9.00 ERA, .854 OPSa), he's been excellent: 40 2/3 IP of 3.23 ERA with a .644 OPSa and 39 K against 10 BB.

 

[Daniel_Son]

I am also not that poster, but I must say that Crawford piqued my interest in his stint in the Dominican Winter League. The pitching isn't always great in that league, but he was flat out dominant against some pretty respectable lineups.

Since his rocky April (7 IP of 9.00 ERA, .854 OPSa), he's been excellent: 40 2/3 IP of 3.23 ERA with a .644 OPSa and 39 K against 10 BB.

I’m by no means a pitching expert, but I did a quick comparison of Kutter v. all of MLB from his first real start of the year (5 IP on June 12) through today - so basically the past 2 months. Here’s where he ranks (min. 30 IP)

ERA: 2.92 (36th)

WHIP: 0.95 (18th)

Ks: 36 (67th)
BBs: 8 (10th)
Hits: 22 (5th)
ERs: 12 (15th)
K/9: 8.76 (42nd)
BB/9: 1.95 (26th)
HR: 4 (36th) – technically tied for 4th w/ 16 other players

K%: 25% (32nd)
BB%: 5.6% (34th)
SwStr%: 11.1% (47th)
CStr%: 17% (46th)
CSW%: 28.2% (42nd)
HardHit: 30 (6th)
Barrels: 3 (4th)
Events: 99 (13th)

K/BB: 4.5 (26th)
LOB%: 78.9% (38th)
BABIP: .242 (15th)
Avg: .200 (21st)

FIP: 3.31 (34th)
xFIP: 3.79 (54th)
SIERA: 3.59 (39th)

So he's been really good. Not elite, and he's been a little lucky, but he's still been a top-50ish pitcher for a not-insignificant amount of time. Doesn't strike out a ton of guys, but doesn't walk a lot either. Paired with a surprisingly low number of hits given up and very little significant contact in general, that's a damn valuable pitcher to have under control for the next few years, and a guy I'd be more than happy to have in the 4th spot of my rotation. Even with regression, he still figures to be an average-to-good pitcher.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Last 8 games for Kutter: 2.72 era, 43.0 ip, 34 hits, 13r/13er, 9bb/42k. .215/.260/.348 on a .266 BAbip.

He has to be the bright spot of the season so far. Hopefully it's not a mirage and his ceiling is something a bit more than high leverage swing man. He's looking like a legit starter. He's pitched against some solid teams too.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

He seems worthy of his own thread.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

I was about to come here and start this threat, but I see you've beaten me to it!

Kutter Crawford is looking like he might be a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy season. In other threads I've seen him lumped in with the other AAA starting crew -- Bello, Winckowski, and Seabold. Of that group I've mostly seen comments to the effect of Bello being the only pitcher with any real potential, albeit needing more seasoning.

What Kutter has done this year suggests that he really could be a solid back of the rotation starter on the cheap, and perhaps significantly more.

As a starter (counting the game against the Rays where he pitched 5.1 but followed an opener) Kutter has put up an ERA of 2.72 with a FIP of 3.07 and an xFIP of 3.55. His WHIP is 1 on the nose, K9 8.79, BB9 1.88, and K:BB 4.67.

Every single one of those starts was against a contender: Seattle, St. Louis, Tampa Bay twice, NYY, Toronto, Cleveland, and Houston. NYY and Toronto are the #1 and #2 offenses in the league, and Houston is #5 and Cleveland #7. Seattle is #10 and Tampa Bay #11. St. Louis is #7 in the NL.

Thus Kutter has put up these numbers against above average hitting teams.

Kutter's K9 would rank around 50th-60th in MLB and BB9 in the low 20's among starters. Based on a Fangraphs search of starts with min 40 IP, Kutter would be 22nd in BB9, T56th in K9 and T20 in K/BB. His ERA would be good for 17th, FIP for T21st and xFIP for 42nd.

Kutter's strand rate is a bit high, 8.2% over league average. But the FIP and xFIP are both excellent. It's still just 8 appearances, but if Kutter can keep this up he could be a real piece of the puzzle going forward.

 

[LoLsapien]

Statcast shows some interesting data. Kutter's hard hit percent and fastball spin are in the 81st and 88th percentile in all of baseball. I'm guessing that the spin rate is what allows him to succeed despite a fastball velocity that's just 30th percentile. Together, this seems to help him achieve a whiff pct and chase rate that are exactly league average, and a barrel pct and strikeout rate that are slightly better than league average.

He throws the fastball and Kutter a combined 70 percent of the time (looking at FG now) which is probably good because his curveball, which appears to be his go-to off speed pitch, has a spin rate that is poor (30th pct).

I'm trying to figure out the FG data to understand what kind of movement he gets on his pitches but can't figure it out right now. Based on the little I think I understand about spin, I'd assume he gets great movement on his FB but I'm not sure.

 

[LoLsapien]

Huh. Kutter's hard hit pct is top notch, but his average exit velocity is 42nd percentile, or slightly below average. How does that work? I'm having trouble understanding how that's possible. According to statcast, a hard-hit is one that has an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. So if I'm understanding his statcast page, he's excellent at avoiding hits with an EV of greater than 95 mph. So, in order to have a below average EV overall, does that mean he gives up soft contact hits, but hard hit foul balls and outs? I don't get it.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

Huh. Kutter's hard hit pct is top notch, but his average exit velocity is 42nd percentile, or slightly below average. How does that work? I'm having trouble understanding how that's possible. According to statcast, a hard-hit is one that has an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. So if I'm understanding his statcast page, he's excellent at avoiding hits with an EV of greater than 95 mph. So, in order to have a below average EV overall, does that mean he gives up soft contact hits, but hard hit foul balls and outs? I don't get it.

If he has a low hard hit % but a less impressive average EV it suggests that he suppresses hard contact but doesn't get a lot of soft contact. If a pitcher gave up 10 batted balls all at 94 mph, he'd probably have a terrible average EV despite having 0% hard hit. Given the sample size I have no idea if his hard hit % and average EV are particularly meaningful. It looks like it takes only about 70 balls in play for ground ball and flyball rates to stabilize, but it takes 10 times that for line drive rate and 30 times that for BABIP to stabilize.

As a side note, I think the key question is whether Kutter figured something out in the approximately 1 month between his last MLB relief appearance (May 13th) and his first start (June 12th). He had a few minor league appearances in that date range and he wasn't good in them, although he then had 2 more minor league starts on 6/23 and 6/28 in which he was good.

I think there's some cause for optimism here, but it's still really early.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Savant is suggestive: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kutter-crawford-676710?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

His four-seamer drops less than average - a lot less. He's #8 in MLB there. Of the guys who get a lot less drop, he also has more horizontal movement on that pitch than anyone in the top 25. (Kopech and Cole are close). https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitch-movement

The cutter and the curve also have good movement.

His batted ball profile (compared to a database of 2015-now pitches) show hitters put the ball in the air: Flyball 29% to a 23% average, Popups 10% to 7%.

So my take-away is that he's striking guys out, but something about his movement induces more potential flyball outs.


If you look at the handedness splits by pitch type it's pretty stark:
RHB put the bat on the fastball and the cutter, but not well - slugging is low and they produce strike outs. RHB just not producing against the slider and the curve at all.
LHB don't face the slider, and see a changeup instead. The results by pitch type are more mixed. The fastball and cutter produce more strikeouts, and are hit less hard and often. The curve and change are more hittable.

 

[LoLsapien]

If he has a low hard hit % but a less impressive average EV it suggests that he suppresses hard contact but doesn't get a lot of soft contact. If a pitcher gave up 10 batted balls all at 94 mph, he'd probably have a terrible average EV despite having 0% hard hit. Given the sample size I have no idea if his hard hit % and average EV are particularly meaningful. It looks like it takes only about 70 balls in play for ground ball and flyball rates to stabilize, but it takes 10 times that for line drive rate and 30 times that for BABIP to stabilize.

As a side note, I think the key question is whether Kutter figured something out in the approximately 1 month between his last MLB relief appearance (May 13th) and his first start (June 12th). He had a few minor league appearances in that date range and he wasn't good in them, although he then had 2 more minor league starts on 6/23 and 6/28 in which he was good.

I think there's some cause for optimism here, but it's still really early.

Nice, thanks! Looks like his average EV is 88.8 mph on 150 events, which seems to jive with what you are suggesting: league average is 88.6 mph.

Interestingly, according to a little nugget in this article, Kutter kut his walk rate from 4+/9 innings earlier in the season, to 1.3/9 innings in July.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

@Rovin Romine that profile could play well if shifts are banned.

@LoLsapien yeah, I noticed his sky high walk rates dropped dramatically. I think there's a decent chance his sky high BB rate in MLB (both in 21 and 22) may have had something to do with nerves as they were dramatically worse than his recent minor league numbers. It takes about 170 bf for bb rate to stabilize, and he's just about at that number as a starter in 2022. We might not expect him to be quite this good at suppressing walks, but I'd bet his career numbers are likely to be closer to his current mark than what he was doing in his 2021 callup and early this season in relief.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Kutter Crawford is looking like he might be a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy season. In other threads I've seen him lumped in with the other AAA starting crew -- Bello, Winckowski, and Seabold. Of that group I've mostly seen comments to the effect of Bello being the only pitcher with any real potential, albeit needing more seasoning.

What Kutter has done this year suggests that he really could be a solid back of the rotation starter on the cheap, and perhaps significantly more.

His batted ball profile (compared to a database of 2015-now pitches) show hitters put the ball in the air: Flyball 29% to a 23% average, Popups 10% to 7%.

I'm almost 100% positive I read an article or a stat sheet last year that showed Kutter Crawford drastically changed his pitch selection upon return from TJS. I can't find it now and it's bumming me out. Said he started to use his cutter a lot more. If that's true, I'm not sure how useful any information on him is from prior to 2021. There's a very, very slim chance I'm mistaking him for Brandon Walter but the whole Kutter/Cutter thing is something that sticks.

Re being lumped in with others: He had a sneaky good 2021 that's being masked by some bad BAbip luck in AAA. This is especially true when you factor in he was coming back from TJS he had in October of 2019. I also recall reading that pitchers who get TJS are often better year 2 and on than year 1 but I'm less confident of that. Anyway, if that is a thing, one would expect him to be better this year than last.

2021
AA: .820 WHIP, 5bb/64k. .271 BAbip 37.2% K%, 2.9% BB% 46.1 ip
AAA: 1.32 WHIP, 15bb/67k .370 BAbip 32.1 %K 7.2% BB% 48.1 ip
Combined: 1.077 WHIP, 20bb/131k. 34.4% K%, 5.2% BB% 94.2 ip

This year
AAA: 1.44 WHIP, 6bb/23k .323 BAbip 20.7% K%, 5.4% BB% 24.1 ip
MLB: 1.23 WHIP, 17bb/56k .299 BAbip 25.0% K%, 7.6% BB% 53.2 ip

That's 172.2 ip, 43bb/210k with a BB% never north of 7.6% over the last 2.

His year this season isn't really all that different than last year.. except of course that he's doing it at the MLB level and is having average BAbip luck. Less K's, but that's expected.

--
As far as learning anything from being send down in May until his call up, could just be the move back to the rotation. He's had 3 career appearances out of the pen. 2 in 2017 and one last year.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I'm almost 100% positive I read an article or a stat sheet last year that showed Kutter Crawford drastically changed his pitch selection upon return from TJS. I can't find it now and it's bumming me out. Said he started to use his cutter a lot more. If that's true, I'm not sure how useful any information on him is from prior to 2021.

FWIW, the numbers I quoted are from 2022 MLB only. The comparison of his 2022 on pitch outcomes is against a 2015-2022 MLB database of outcomes.