The Kutter Crawford thread

[Mugsy's Jock]

I don't usually have the temerity to start a main board thread, but it's the off-season, so here goes. The Kutter Konversation is overwhelming the Beuller thread...

What to with "problem" like Kutter? Short answer, it's not a problem!

TOP FIVE ROTATION CANDIDATES: Crochet / Houck / Buehler / Bello / Giolito
ROTATION DEPTH / BOSTON LONG RELIEF: Crawford / Sandoval (eventually) / Whitlock / Criswell / Winckowski / yada yada yada
ROTATION DEPTH / WORCESTER STARTERS: Priester / Slaten / Penrod (I think he was told he was to be stretched as a starter this year) / Fitts

Given that rubric, here are 4 plausible scenarios for Kutter:

1. Leave him in Boston as long relief, acknowledging likelihood one of the initial starting five will be hurt at some point. Shoot, it's no sure bet Giolito will be ready before May or June.
2. Send him to Worcester, keeping his stretched as a SP, acknowledging injury as described above.
3. Trade him now, ideally for a premier relief arm, or a RH bat, or full-time catcher.
4. Keep him in long relief, moving into rotation if needed, and consider trading him in July. By then, Anthony and/or Campbell should've established themselves, enabling you to package Abreu or Grissom to improve the return. Additionally, we'll know what we have in Giolito, and Sandoval will be back on track as a depth starter option.

#4 looks pretty logical to me, unless a too-good-to-pass trade option presents itself. [Kutter + Abreu for Sean Murphy?]

If Kutter goes now, I want a legit platoonable RH bat with a decent glove (call him "O'Neill"), a better catcher than Wong (I probably like Wong more than most), a Top 100 pitching prospect in AA or AAA, or a Top 75 hitting prospect in A ball or better. I'd rather have the insurance than an upgrade of convenience.

 

[buckner's_ankles]

I don't usually have the temerity to start a main board thread, but it's the off-season, so here goes. The Kutter Konversation is overwhelming the Beuller thread...

What to with "problem" like Kutter? Short answer, it's not a problem!

TOP FIVE ROTATION CANDIDATES: Crochet / Houck / Buehler / Bello / Giolito
ROTATION DEPTH / BOSTON LONG RELIEF: Crawford / Sandoval (eventually) / Whitlock / Criswell / Winckowski / yada yada yada
ROTATION DEPTH / WORCESTER STARTERS: Priester / Slaten / Penrod (I think he was told he was to be stretched as a starter this year) / Fitts

Given that rubric, here are 4 plausible scenarios for Kutter:

1. Leave him in Boston as long relief, acknowledging likelihood one of the initial starting five will be hurt at some point.
2. Send him to Worcester, keeping his stretched as a SP, acknowledging injury as described above.
3. Trade him now, ideally for a premier relief arm, or a RH bat, or full-time catcher.
4. Keep him in long relief and look to trade him in July. By then, Anthony and/or Campbell should've established themselves, enabling you to package Abreu or Grissom to improve the return. Additionally, Sandoval will be back on track as a depth starter option.

#4 looks pretty logical to me, unless a too-good-to-pass trade option presents itself. [Kutter + Abreu for Sean Murphy?]

If Kutter goes now, I want a legit platoonable RH bat with a decent glove (call him "O'Neill"), a better catcher than Wong (I probably like Wong more than most), a Top 100 pitching prospect in AA or AAA, or a Top 75 hitting prospect in A ball or better. I'd rather have the insurance than an upgrade of convenience.

(Just moved this from the Buehler thread)

How about scenario #5?: From the beginning of the season, Crawford is needed primarily (or even exclusively) in the rotation. At some point, if other SPs are healthy and performing well and Sandoval is on track to add SP depth for the end of the season, consider trading Crawford to fill whatever the team's most urgent need is at that point.

 

[nvalvo]

What are we trading Crawford for?

I ask because I don't really see positions that can be improved by whatever we get for Crawford. Maybe we can get a better catcher than Wong, but that seems unlikely because there aren't that many good catchers and as a result, they're pretty expensive. We could probably get a useful reliever, but Crawford would most likely be a useful reliever himself.

I think we're better off holding onto all of our depth and revisiting the question at the trade deadline.

We should probably have a thread about this (thanks, MJ), but I am envisioning a situation in which some configuration from among Crawford, Abreu, Hamilton, and Grissom go out for a two-way catcher. Trades are generally pretty unpredictable, but targets include Sean Murphy, Yainer Díaz, and Willson Contreras.

 

[pjheff]

How about scenario #5?: From the beginning of the season, Crawford is needed primarily (or even exclusively) in the rotation. At some point, if other SPs are healthy and performing well and Sandoval is on track to add SP depth for the end of the season, consider trading Crawford to fill whatever the team's most urgent need is at that point.

With Giolito and Buehler on one year deals, and no sure starters in the pipeline, why trade Crawford at all?

 

[fieldslikebuckner]

I'm sure this has been mentioned in other threads but the hand-wringing over having too many starting pitchers is probably unwarranted. Looking at 2024, the four pitchers who made the most starts (Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello) combined for 119. If you want to add Criswell's 18, it's 137. That's between 25 and 43 starts made by spot starters, openers, guys who got injured, etc.

In short, there should/will be plenty of starts available for Crawford, as well as the next three or four guys on the depth chart.

 

[benhogan]

I don't usually have the temerity to start a main board thread, but it's the off-season, so here goes. The Kutter Konversation is overwhelming the Beuller thread...

What to with "problem" like Kutter? Short answer, it's not a problem!

TOP FIVE ROTATION CANDIDATES: Crochet / Houck / Buehler / Bello / Giolito
ROTATION DEPTH / BOSTON LONG RELIEF: Crawford / Sandoval (eventually) / Whitlock / Criswell / Winckowski / yada yada yada
ROTATION DEPTH / WORCESTER STARTERS: Priester / Slaten / Penrod (I think he was told he was to be stretched as a starter this year) / Fitts

Given that rubric, here are 4 plausible scenarios for Kutter:

1. Leave him in Boston as long relief, acknowledging likelihood one of the initial starting five will be hurt at some point. Shoot, it's no sure bet Giolito will be ready before May or June.
2. Send him to Worcester, keeping his stretched as a SP, acknowledging injury as described above.
3. Trade him now, ideally for a premier relief arm, or a RH bat, or full-time catcher.
4. Keep him in long relief, moving into rotation if needed, and consider trading him in July. By then, Anthony and/or Campbell should've established themselves, enabling you to package Abreu or Grissom to improve the return. Additionally, we'll know what we have in Giolito, and Sandoval will be back on track as a depth starter option.

#4 looks pretty logical to me, unless a too-good-to-pass trade option presents itself. [Kutter + Abreu for Sean Murphy?]

If Kutter goes now, I want a legit platoonable RH bat with a decent glove (call him "O'Neill"), a better catcher than Wong (I probably like Wong more than most), a Top 100 pitching prospect in AA or AAA, or a Top 75 hitting prospect in A ball or better. I'd rather have the insurance than an upgrade of convenience.

1. Yes, long relief. Yes, it's a coin toss one SP could be injured by opening day. Yes, Giolito is a risk to open the season on the DL.

2. Kutter can efficiently get major leaguers out (especially when rested) his bullets need not be wasted at AAA.

3. Don't expect Breslow to go down this road. MLB teams are mostly fine with their rotations now because off-season Pitcher injury velocity is much lower than in-season. For those that want to squeeze the most out of Kutter's value, wait until the trade deadline, when the demand will be highest for cost-controlled, rested SP.

The alternative is to trade a subsidized Masa for one of those 3 needs. Crystalizes Bloom's error & efficiently uses owner $$$.

4. Yes, by far the most logical choice.

 

[ookami7m]

I would not be surprised to see a "sort of 6-man rotation" early in the season with Kutter as the in-and-out guy to keep some of the Buehler/Giolito arms a little fresher.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Injuries aside, a lot also rides on which version of Lucas Giolito we get. The 2019-2021 version of Lucas Giolito is much better than Kutter Crawford.

The 2022-2023 version of Lucas Giolito is signifcantly worse than Kutter Crawford.

 

[OldeBeanTowne]

What are people's thoughts on Flaherty relative to Crawford? His injury risk may be scary given the reported back concerns, but, if he could be had for something like $100m/5y ($85/4?), is that worth the risk given the opportunity it presents to trade Crawford for roster improvements elsewhere?

 

[AB in DC]

With Giolito and Buehler on one year deals, and no sure starters in the pipeline, why trade Crawford at all?

Yeah, this. If we're trading anyone in July, it will be Gio or Buehler. We're going to need Kutter in 2026.

 

[dynomite]

I would not be surprised to see a "sort of 6-man rotation" early in the season with Kutter as the in-and-out guy to keep some of the Buehler/Giolito arms a little fresher.

Agreed, and not to mention Crochet, who is an incredible addition but massively exceeded his career IP totals at ~140 IP. If they want to keep him somewhat fresh with an eye toward October and staying under 200 IP total this year I wouldn't mind having Crawford/Criswell either piggyback some of his starts or just go to a 6-man rotation for stretches of the season when injuries don't prevent it.

So I'm at option #4 with Crawford: tell him in Spring to plan to bounce between the pen and rotation, expect he'll need to fill in for someone in the rotation by May for at least a few weeks, and see where things go.


To me, Kutter profiles as a #4/5 starter on a solid team. His actual ERA nearly exactly matched his xFIP last year: 4.36 vs. 4.35. In 400ish ML innings he has a 4.57 career ERA with a 4.36 career xFIP.

He's great cost-controlled depth even if Breslow, Bailey, and co can't unlock another level. Still, another thing this front office has done wisely is acquire a lot of starting pitching depth in Priester, Criswell, and Fitts, so if there's a trade that makes sense that works for me as well (particularly, as mentioned, for Murphy or another Catcher).

 

[nvalvo]

Do we know of examples of pitchers in their late 20s dramatically improving their rates of allowing home runs? Crawford has always allowed a lot of them: 1.4, 1.2, and 1.7 per 9 in his three meaningful MLB samples.

 

[Sox Pride]

I only see trading Crawford for a SP upgrade (Jacques Jones comes to mind)

 

[SuperDieHard]

You really need at least 8 starters most years, so it actually might depend more on how they feel about Priester as Criswell and Fitts have both shown to be reasonably capable. If they’re confident in Priester, or are at least willing to take some risk that Winckowski gets some starts before Sandoval can come back, then Kutter is expendable now in the right package. Similarly if they’re confident enough in 2 of Anthony, Campbell or Grissom being ready, Abreu (or Grissom, but I’d prefer to keep the righty bats) could be added as well. Perhaps throw in a subsidized Masa, maybe a prospect…See what that brings back (Jones- even though the need is less now? Mason Miller? Sean Murphy, plus a future arm?) That package needs to bring in significant upgrade somewhere not just a Teo equivalent….

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Cross posted from the Buehler thread because I think the discussion works better here.

This is a good point. This puts us in a position of strength to deal in a market where pitching is exorbitantly expensive.

Yeah, you mentioned after the Crochet acquisition that it meant the rotation didn’t have to be “done” but could be. Which I agreed with, but it really only worked in a free agent setting. In a trade setting, with Eovaldi, Kikuchi and the like off the board, Crawford really could only be talked about in a deal with another SP coming back. That isn’t the case anymore.

I agree on stability. But very few teams have ongoing stability 1-5 year over year. The Sox had 3 guys make over 30 starts last year. That's a pretty stable base. Even if they shuffle things up, those 3 are still on the team.

Totally agree about the number, but it was only real feasible once they got someone “like” Bello or better. Up until that point, you still needed to acquire someone with term that profiled like a 2/3 if not better. It could’ve been any number of guys, but needed to be one of them.

Luckily, in my opinion, they “paid” to get the best available SP on the market. Now with what I think we’d all agree at minimum looks like a 2/3/3 and more like a good while not spectacular 1/2/3 if you believe in Crochet, Houck and Bello, which I do) you can take one year shots on Buehler or Scherzer or whatever.


As to what to actually “do” with Kutter, I’d say you make it known he is “available” only to a) acquire a massive bat with term; b) get rid of Story’s deal; b) land a big starting C upgrade; d) get rid of Yoshida’s deal AND get back some a real assets.

If you’re not gaining one of those large, long term benefits, he heads to the bullpen where it’s almost certain he’s still getting at least 20ish starts. I mean each of the current top 5 could make ~29 starts and you’d still need someone for ~15 to 20 starts. Crawford is really valuable that way.

This type of off-season is exactly how I think Crawford should be viewed. A 4/5 that is dirt cheap and therefore very valuable, but should be improved upon if possible (or at least “try” to be improved upon). As we sit here today, Crawford has been viewed and used in exactly the way I think he should be.

 

[Coachster]

A totally random judgemental thing about Crawford: His arm motion resembles nobody as much as Keith Foulke. Every time I watched him pitch last season I thought to myself 'How long is that elbow going to last?' (The same thing I've always thought about Chris Sale, FWIW) Once Foulke's elbow was shredded, that was kind-of it for his career. I'm just not sure Crawford has that long a shelf life, and with that in mind, moving him mid-season (assuming everybody else has already recovered) might be a good idea.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What are people's thoughts on Flaherty relative to Crawford? His injury risk may be scary given the reported back concerns, but, if he could be had for something like $100m/5y ($85/4?), is that worth the risk given the opportunity it presents to trade Crawford for roster improvements elsewhere?

I don't think there's much question that Flaherty is the better pitcher (career 3.63 ERA/3.91 FIP compared to 4.56/4.35). The real question is whether he'll be $70-80M better than Crawford over the next 4 years. They already have Crawford through 2028 if they want him, and at a cost of probably between $10-20M in total depending on his role and salary escalation via arbitration. So is it worth spending $80-100M to sign Flaherty for that same period to displace Crawford? Even if you flip Crawford for something of value, will it be something you can't just buy with the $80-100M earmarked for Flaherty?

 

[4 6 3 DP]

As I mentioned in the Buehler thread - this team only wants to buy FA pitchers above the age of 27 on make good short term contracts, so it would seem to me that unless blown away, Crawford should stay in the organization, as the replacement cost would be pretty high.

 

[Salem's Lot]

Not only should they keep Crawford, they should sign another starter (and another reliever).

 

[BaseballJones]

Crawford has become a solid MLB pitcher. Not a star, but solid.

 

[mwonow]

There was a stretch last year where Crawford inspired as much confidence as anyone the Sox put on the hill.

Later in the year, all anyone was confident in was that balls would leave the yard.

Did the league figure him out? Did he wear out? Is he the first guy longer this year? Or all year if his workload lightens?

Curious guy, but I'm happy he's a low-cost option in 2024, and hopefully beyond.

 

[bnyc]

I'm for keeping Crawford to start the season. Who gets traded at the deadline can only be determined then. So who starts and who goes to the pen? Why not use Giolito in the pen to start the year? That could change during the season, of course but coming off an injury that could be a prudent way to build him back up.

 

[curly2]

A totally random judgemental thing about Crawford: His arm motion resembles nobody as much as Keith Foulke. Every time I watched him pitch last season I thought to myself 'How long is that elbow going to last?' (The same thing I've always thought about Chris Sale, FWIW) Once Foulke's elbow was shredded, that was kind-of it for his career. I'm just not sure Crawford has that long a shelf life, and with that in mind, moving him mid-season (assuming everybody else has already recovered) might be a good idea.

Foulke's knees went first. I think he hurt his elbow partially from pitching on two bad knees. He give his all to make 2004 happen.

 

[Niastri]

A totally random judgemental thing about Crawford: His arm motion resembles nobody as much as Keith Foulke. Every time I watched him pitch last season I thought to myself 'How long is that elbow going to last?' (The same thing I've always thought about Chris Sale, FWIW) Once Foulke's elbow was shredded, that was kind-of it for his career. I'm just not sure Crawford has that long a shelf life, and with that in mind, moving him mid-season (assuming everybody else has already recovered) might be a good idea.

One thing to consider is that Keith Foulke was 33 in 2006 when he had his career altering injury, and he didn't hang 'em up for good until after 2008 after pitching 31 games for Oakland. And Foulke was still under contract when he retired.

Whatever similarities they have, I'd bet Crawford would sign up right now to have a career that lasted until he was 35 with only one severe bump in the road, and that was right at the end.

 

[benhogan]

I would not be surprised to see a "sort of 6-man rotation" early in the season with Kutter as the in-and-out guy to keep some of the Buehler/Giolito arms a little fresher.

(caveat: TOP6 SP pitchers are healthy)
I wouldn't be surprised to see Kutter/Buehler/Giolito share the 4th/5th/long-man during the season based on rest/performance. But expect Crochet, Houck, and Bello will take the ball around a 5-man rotation.

In addition, the Sox could also use the DL to rest one of the TOP6 SP for weeks and use a AAA arm for the long-man role.

Either way, it all adds up to keeping Kutter for years, unless they get blown away at the trade deadline.