The JD Opt-Out: Just Do-it or Just Don't?

Savin Hillbilly

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
There's really no reason to use JDM as anything but a DH while he's here. It's easier to find a Mitch Moreland type than to find a guy who's a worse defender than JDM and a comparable hitter.

If I were the Sox I'd be taking a long look at Justin Smoak, who has always hit well at Fenway, is a respectable defender, and will probably be a bargain coming off a meh season driven at least somewhat by crap BABIP luck and injuries (his xWOBA/wOBA this year: .366/.324). He's not the kind of guy you build around, obviously, but he could be a good cheap bounceback gamble.
 
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Savin Hillbilly said:
There's really no reason to use JDM as anything but a DH while he's here. It's easier to find a Mitch Moreland type than to find a guy who's a worse defender than JDM and a comparable hitter.

If I were the Sox I'd be taking a long look at Justin Smoak, who has always hit well at Fenway, is a respectable defender, and will probably be a bargain coming off a meh season driven at least somewhat by crap BABIP luck and injuries (his xWOBA/wOBA this year: .366/.324). He's not the kind of guy you build around, obviously, but he could be a good cheap bounceback gamble.
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Will Moreland really be getting much more than Smoak? If it's close, I'd easily rather just bring Moreland back.
 
chawson

chawson

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Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Will Moreland really be getting much more than Smoak? If it's close, I'd easily rather just bring Moreland back.
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Smoak’s a better fit because he obviates the need to carry a RHH 1B platoon guy like Travis or Pearce on the 25-man. And for what it’s worth, he has a .901 lifetime Fenway OPS in 184 PAs.
 
keninten

keninten

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If JD could play a competent 1B we could keep Brock instead of paying a Smoak or Moreland. By midseason Dalbec might deserve a shot too. Next season I want the Sox to be able to add some payroll at the deadline. Whether it be a defensive 1B(Minky) or a RP or a SP or wherever an injury might cause a need, I`d like them to have the flexibility at the deadline.
 
Dewey'sCannon

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Savin Hillbilly said:
Thirded. If he stays, enjoy the great offense at a more-than-fair price. If he opts out, say "thanks for all the fish" and enjoy the increased payroll flexibility. The Sox are really in a no-lose situation here, and I don't think they have any reason to try to pre-empt the situation by offering JDM a raise to stay. (Which seems like exactly the kind of move DD would have made.) It will be a little interesting to see how the Sox handle DH if JDM does go, but I think it's somewhat axiomatic that if you're going to have a question-mark position, DH is the one you want.
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Fourthed.

And loved the Hitchhiker reference.
 
Tyrone Biggums

Tyrone Biggums

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Even if he opts in the Sox could still deal him. Probably won't do it but at least would be a nice handshake way to get something of value instead of losing him for nothing. Ultimately I'd love to keep JD
 
P

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Tyrone Biggums said:
Even if he opts in the Sox could still deal him. Probably won't do it but at least would be a nice handshake way to get something of value instead of losing him for nothing. Ultimately I'd love to keep JD
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If he opts in that means that he couldn't get a better deal than the current contract. If that's the case, trading a guy already at market won't bring in much in a trade.
 
BaseballJones

BaseballJones

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chawson said:
Smoak’s a better fit because he obviates the need to carry a RHH 1B platoon guy like Travis or Pearce on the 25-man. And for what it’s worth, he has a .901 lifetime Fenway OPS in 184 PAs.
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That's because he abuses Red Sox pitching. Looking at his career splits, if you look at teams that he has more than 100 PAs against, his numbers are the very best against the Red Sox (and this obviously includes his home games, not just those at Fenway).

105 g, 336 ab, 21 hr, .268/.366/.527/.893

BTW, I wouldn't want Smoak. OPS and OPS+ numbers the last three seasons:

2017 (age 30): .883, 131
2018 (age 31): .808, 122
2019 (age 32): .740, 98

He's not going to be a good hitter moving forward...except probably when he plays the Sox.
 
Savin Hillbilly

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Patek's 3 Dingers said:
The net effect, though, is that Brock will be replacing JD in the lineup,
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Yes, and although Brock is far from an ideal 1B because of his height or lack thereof, he's still probably a better 1B than JDM will be. And Chavis is probably a better 1B than that. So if you have Holt, Chavis and JDM on your roster, JDM is at best your 3rd-string first baseman. Again: the only way it makes sense to play JDM anywhere except DH is if you acquire a player who is of roughly comparable value as a hitter, but an even worse defender. And why would you do that?
 
BoSox Rule

BoSox Rule

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Can’t find anything definitive but probably within a few days after the World Series ends.
 
Saints Rest

Saints Rest

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Can the Sox extend JD for more years and less AAV? Will the contract or MLBPA allow it?

If yes, is the answer dependent on JD first opting out?

And finally, would it be to the Sox' benefit to get JD extended to something like 5 years $85M?
 
sean1562

sean1562

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honestly, would we want to? i know we have a sentimental attachment to these guys after last years WS, but signing JDM for what 5 more years at like 18 mil per is probably not a great financial decision.
 
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