The importance of coaching in developing quarterbacks

The more NFL football I watch, the more convinced I am that the single most important factor in determining how good a QB will be in the NFL is the coaching he gets and the offensive system(s) he's put in. After that probably comes the offensive talent around him, then his health, and then the player's own talent is...not entirely irrelevant, but far less important than most people would have you believe. A few data points:

--Look at how well Matt Moore, Kyle Allen and Teddy Bridgewater have done this year off the bench under very smart offensive coaches and coordinators. (How would Luke Falk have done in one of their places?)
--Is Josh Rosen really worse than Josh Allen, or has he simply been put in historically awful situations two years running?
--Lamar Jackson has a coach who has been both willing and able of designing a system to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.
--Jimmy Garoppolo has been blessed with Bill Belichick and Kyle Shanahan as his two coaches; same for Jacoby Brissett and Belichick + Frank Reich. (And we all remember how competent Matt Cassel looked under Belichick...)
--How bad would Jared Goff be without Sean McVay? (And how bad is he without 100% Todd Gurley?)
--What happened to Baker Mayfield between Year 1 and Year 2?
--Is Patrick Mahomes *really* that great? I mean, he's clearly good, but how good does his coaching and supporting offensive cast make him look? Stick him in, I dunno, Tennessee...would he have anything like the same impact?

And that's mostly just looking at young and/or relatively inexperienced QBs. I've spent a lot of time watching Matt Ryan wax and wane under different coaches and coordinators, and I'm not convinced he's any less good this year than he was in his MVP year (with Shanahan pulling the strings); he's just been put in a much worse situation, and so he looks significantly worse. I'm tempted to say that if he or any one of a dozen other QBs currently in the NFL had been drafted by the Patriots, they now might be thought of as one of the GOATs, whereas if TB12 had wound up in Tennessee or Miami or Arizona or Cincinnati, his career could have looked like Andy Dalton's. Is that sacrilege? Or is it just a testament to the ridiculously large importance of coaching in the modern NFL?

I'm not exactly breaking new ground by suggesting that good or bad coaching can make or break a quarterback, but I think the extent to which this is true has been dramatically undersold - and this season in particular has convinced me that good NFL coaches should be making as much if not more money than the best NFL players. Is this thesis sound? Would good GMs with outstanding offensive coaches be smart to let their cheap young QBs move on when they start to become expensive (as they often do with running backs, albeit often independent of the quality of the coaching they're getting)? Is there any other sport in which the quality of coaching has even remotely the same impact that it does in the NFL? Or am I wrong, and do quarterbacks ultimately bear the primary responsibility for their own destinies as players?
 

tims4wins

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It’s not isolated to quarterback. Kyle Van Noy is a great example. Drafted in 2014 in the 2nd round by the Lions. Did zero there. Was traded to the Pats for pennies. Is now a borderline Pro Bowl player. He’d probably be out of the NFL if he wasn’t traded to the Pats. Similar story might have been written about Mike Vrabel 15 years ago.

Brady is somewhat unique in terms of his makeup. It’s hard to say what he would have been elsewhere. But 20 years of continuity has had a huge impact (and is why he won’t be playing anywhere else next year).
 

Michelle34B

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Aug 2, 2006
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Mike Vrabel signed as a free agent. Kyle Van Noy was traded for pennies instead of being cut. I like Van Noy, but he's never been good at shedding blockers. Most of this comes from watching him in college, and seeing how he has been used in New England.

--How bad would Jared Goff be without Sean McVay? (And how bad is he without 100% Todd Gurley?)
How bad would Jared Goff be if he was still coached by Jeff Fisher. This is the third year under McVay. You mentioned Todd Gurley, and Andrew Whitworth is going to be 38 on December 12th. Imagine if the Rams drafted Khalil Mack instead of Greg Robinson as their Left Tackle of the future? Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, and Jalen Ramsey at each level of the defense. It doesn't get much better than that.

Just to add one to the list, Matt Stafford is having one of his best years, and Golladay is emerging as a star. Detroit is doing some great work all over the field that is starting to pay off.
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
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There are a lot of skills that go into being a good-to-great QB: accuracy, touch, arm strength, pocket awareness and mobility, decision making, vision, quick release, among many others. Quite a few of those characteristics require innate ability that, while potentially unlocked by good coaching and environment, are not guaranteed to be present in the next young QB you pick up. An important ability is also the ability to improve over time, which again is not guaranteed.

Obviously, like any position, successful QB's benefit greatly from pass protection, a balanced attack, talented wideouts and/or tight ends, etc. But, over time, the good QB's manage to rise up even when the rest of the team is "meh". Brady got a very unbalanced Patriot team with a horrific defense to the first round of the playoffs in 2009; Josh Rosen goes 3-13 under similar circumstances, even with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. And, yes, coaching matters. But even the best coaches can only do so much if the talent is not on the field on Sunday. Look at some of the coaches that won Super Bowls thanks to their QB's, and had little success elsewhere.

Basically, if I'm a GM and have Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes on my team, I happily pay them their salary and do my best with the rest of the roster.
 

Super Nomario

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--Look at how well Matt Moore, Kyle Allen and Teddy Bridgewater have done this year off the bench under very smart offensive coaches and coordinators. (How would Luke Falk have done in one of their places?)
The Panthers don't really have a good offense (they're 19th in points per drive and 27th in yards per drive). The Saints scored less than 14 points in two of Teddy's five starts. I think what you're seeing there is the team as a whole is playing well and that leads to the impression that the QB is playing well, which isn't necessarily the case.

--What happened to Baker Mayfield between Year 1 and Year 2?
I see this as a counter-argument, considering Freddie Kitchens was the primary offensive guy both years.

I think a lot gets credited to coaching which is rightly laid at the feet of supporting cast. We've seen every quarterback's performance ebb and flow with his supporting cast. Peyton Manning tailed off at the end of his Indy days when Harrison, Clark, and James got old and they had some bad drafts, then bounced back when he joined a stacked Denver squad. Brady's performance has dipped in injury-plagued seasons like 2013, the end of 2015, and so far this year. Aaron Rodgers fell off a cliff without Jordy Nelson in 2015. All those players were still good; lesser lights like Colin Kaepernick and Marc Bulger and Matt Schaub had near-MVP-ish seasons at their peaks and got basically drummed out of the league at their worst. McVay gets a ton of credit for Goff, but not enough is made that they completely overhauled the offense around him from Y1 to Y2.

The QB himself and the 10 other players on the field on offense all carry some role in the performance of the offense. The QB is obviously more than 1/11 of the offense, but what is he? Twice as important as an average teammate? Five times? Even ten times would make him only half of the offense, with a considerable portion outside of his control.

And that's mostly just looking at young and/or relatively inexperienced QBs. I've spent a lot of time watching Matt Ryan wax and wane under different coaches and coordinators, and I'm not convinced he's any less good this year than he was in his MVP year (with Shanahan pulling the strings); he's just been put in a much worse situation, and so he looks significantly worse. I'm tempted to say that if he or any one of a dozen other QBs currently in the NFL had been drafted by the Patriots, they now might be thought of as one of the GOATs, whereas if TB12 had wound up in Tennessee or Miami or Arizona or Cincinnati, his career could have looked like Andy Dalton's. Is that sacrilege? Or is it just a testament to the ridiculously large importance of coaching in the modern NFL?
Brady's gotten it done with three different OCs and offensive support that has turned over several times. Yes, Belichick has been there the whole time, but by all accounts he's much more hands-on with the D than with the O. No one was calling Belichick an offensive genius in Cleveland or in 2000, that's for sure.

EDIT: And as for Matt Ryan ... he has fluctuated somewhat. But Kyle Shanahan has too, even more so. He playcalled for the #1 scoring offense in 2016, but that was the only year from 2013-2018 that his offense finished in the top TWENTY.

Would good GMs with outstanding offensive coaches be smart to let their cheap young QBs move on when they start to become expensive (as they often do with running backs, albeit often independent of the quality of the coaching they're getting)?
I've heard/seen people advance this argument, but I've never seen any suggestion as to where the money would be more smartly spent. You can argue that quarterbacks are overrated generally but I would still argue they are underpaid relative to top players at other positions.
 
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cornwalls@6

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Apr 23, 2010
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I think It's very difficult to precisely parse the role of talent vs coaching when it comes to high performing quarterbacks. I would agree that if you view the factors that lead to successful QB play as a pie chart, coaching/system would likely be the biggest slice. How big of a slice is a fun, but essentially impossible debate to resolve. But there's no question of it's significant importance. Favre is an interesting example to me. Obviously, a generational talent and arm. But I think he unquestionably played his best, most consistent and efficient football when he as getting firm, outstanding coaching from Mike Holmgren and his staff. Otherwise in the rest of of his career, with Green Bay and elsewhere, he was much more of a roller coaster player. Capable of huge games and numbers, but also capable, with some regularity, of self destructing with mistakes and turnovers. So without an extended period of very good coaching in his career, he's still a very talented, competitive, electrifying player to watch. But I'm not at all certain he's a super bowl champion or a hall of famer.
 

bakahump

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Being a good coach is asking your players to do what you know they can and expecting that they do it. Not Asking your players to do what you think they can do and being surprised when and if they cant.

BB has always done this. KVN is mentioned upthread as someone who has trouble shedding. Do you coach him up to get better? Sure. But you also come to a point where you realize "OK Kyle isnt going to be able to do this well. So Expecting him to do so is going to disappoint everyone and lead to our failure as a whole. So Lets figure out what KVN CAN do well and have him do that".

Brady is another example. Early on they didnt have him diagnosing defenses. He was pretty much a game manager/Check down guy. Patriot screen Left Patriot Screen Right with the occasional quick slant. They coached and him found he could do other things. That combined with his strengths (accuracy and good decisions) led to them giving him more, and him excelling at most of it.

Too often we hear coaches lament that "Smith cant do x". Then dont expect him to, and you wont be disappointed when he fails.

Dont get me wrong guys like KVN and (especially) Brady are extremely talented. This isnt a "Hes a system guy" post. Brady was "raw" for lack of a better term. And great coaching has allowed him to flourish. You look around at how many guys are stronger, smarter, faster, with a bigger Arm then Brady (or KVN, or Edelman or Troy Brown etc etc) and the list is almost endless. But those guys could Learn, and get better, even if only incrementally. And the Coaches used those pluses and disregarded the minuses.

Guys who cant bring some kind of value are eventually lopped off and replaced with someone who can give better value.