The Heat is on, ECF here we come!

HomeRunBaker

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It is? The aggregate score of the series - as has been documented on Twitter and reflected here - is tied at 441. The Heat's largest margin of victory is five points so they have never won by more than two possessions. There is nothing being done by anyone by a wide margin (unless you want to count the one Boston victory by 11 points).

Miami is beating Boston but its not by a lot. This clutch thing is a random number to show...I don't know what it shows. If Boston makes their open looks, they may be up 3-1 but they did not. Why are the shots Robb designates as clutch more meaningful than a wide open miss in the first, second, third quarters or even the first seven minutes of the fourth? Are buckets at the end of games worth more in total points than those in other parts of the games?
In NBA playoff games when you are playing to the score and the clock in the 4Q as you seek out individual matchups, 100% absolutely. Possessions in the final quarter of the game are exponentially more crucial than any other quarter during the course of the game as the effort exerted to execute is maximized. In the final 6 min even more so.....more in the final 3, etc etc. You can afford a bad defensive possession during the normal flow of a game as the offense is not as focused to exploit it (Butler settling for jumper, etc)......down the stretch of the game the offensive players efficiency will be much higher as their urgency increases (ex: Butler getting to the rim for layup).

It isn’t so much about “clutch” than it is having finishers. The Heat have Butler and we have a 1 and a 5 who are affecting how we defend down the stretch of games. You need versatile defenders against Miami to switch everything. Last night we schemed to avoid the mismatch switches that leave Theis or Kemba on an island in iso......the result was being half a step behind in going above the screens. You cannot fight through screens against the Heat or the ballhandler will gain an angle to beat you.....and if you switch you must avoid the bad matchup. This is why they have been killing it in the playoffs.....they create mismatches and opportunities with the ball.

Edit: On phone and can’t remove bold. Sorry ugh.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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In NBA playoff games when you are playing to the score and the clock in the 4Q as you seek out individual matchups, 100% absolutely. Possessions in the final quarter of the game are exponentially more crucial than any other quarter during the course of the game as the effort exerted to execute is maximized. In the final 6 min even more so.....more in the final 3, etc etc. You can afford a bad defensive possession during the normal flow of a game as the offense is not as focused to exploit it (Butler settling for jumper, etc)......down the stretch of the game the offensive players efficiency will be much higher as their urgency increases (ex: Butler getting to the rim for layup).

It isn’t so much about “clutch” than it is having finishers. The Heat have Butler and we have a 1 and a 5 who are affecting how we defend down the stretch of games. You need versatile defenders against Miami to switch everything. Last night we schemed to avoid the mismatch switches that leave Theis or Kemba on an island in iso......the result was being half a step behind in going above the screens. You cannot fight through screens against the Heat or the ballhandler will gain an angle to beat you.....and if you switch you must avoid the bad matchup. This is why they have been killing it in the playoffs.....they create mismatches and opportunities with the ball.

Edit: On phone and can’t remove bold. Sorry ugh.
I don't deny that intensity changes at various points of games and I am not suggesting that Miami isn't forcing Boston into bad execution - they are indeed doing that. However, citing those "clutch" stats as a factor in this series seems like a stretch to me. These are mostly one to two possession games. If the Celtics hit one more open look (note not the looks where the Heat are contesting) in any of their losses and then we might be discussing the Heat's lack of late game shooting.

People can polish this turd of a stat all they want but I am not sure it tells you anything you didn't know. These games are close and both teams have struggled in stretches. Beyond that, its subjective interpretation.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don't deny that intensity changes at various points of games and I am not suggesting that Miami isn't forcing Boston into bad execution - they are indeed doing that. However, citing those "clutch" stats as a factor in this series seems like a stretch to me. These are mostly one to two possession games. If the Celtics hit one more open look (note not the looks where the Heat are contesting) in any of their losses and then we might be discussing the Heat's lack of late game shooting.

People can polish this turd of a stat all they want but I am not sure it tells you anything you didn't know. These games are close and both teams have struggled in stretches. Beyond that, its subjective interpretation.
I think it’s just one of many data points. The games have been close and the Celtics aren’t finishing like Miami. Down 3-1 as a result. There’s also missing context on these stats. A wide open 3 miss with 10 seconds left is not the same as Tatum forcing up a tough shot because the offense did nothing for 20 seconds and he had to get a shot off.

Ultimately, as I believe you like to say, it’s a make or miss league. We’re not making enough shots down the stretch, for whatever reason.
 

dhellers

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I don't deny that intensity changes at various points of games and I am not suggesting that Miami isn't forcing Boston into bad execution - they are indeed doing that. However, citing those "clutch" stats as a factor in this series seems like a stretch to me. These are mostly one to two possession games. If the Celtics hit one more open look (note not the looks where the Heat are contesting) in any of their losses and then we might be discussing the Heat's lack of late game shooting.

People can polish this turd of a stat all they want but I am not sure it tells you anything you didn't know. These games are close and both teams have struggled in stretches. Beyond that, its subjective interpretation.
DJ, somewhere at the top of this thread you worried that Miami's experience would be an advantage. I countered with "celts have more conference finals experience" (once you take Iggy out of the equation).

I am starting to think you had a point, even if you now seem to downplay it: that when it matters most -- when there isn't a lot of time & opportunity to recover from mistakes -- Miami seems better able to execute.
Not by much, but by enough to make a difference
 

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DJ, somewhere at the top of this thread you worried that Miami's experience would be an advantage. I countered with "celts have more conference finals experience" (once you take Iggy out of the equation).

I am starting to think you had a point, even if you now seem to downplay it: that when it matters most -- when there isn't a lot of time & opportunity to recover from mistakes -- Miami seems better able to execute.
Not by much, but by enough to make a difference
Last post on this topic but I don't believe we are debating the value of Miami's experience. I think most reasonable people would agree that the Heat's veteran pedigree is favoring them. What I reject is that the Celtics shooting woes down less than five with less than five minutes to go means anything at all. Yes, the defense is intense. Yes, its more difficult to shoot during these stretches by design.

Beyond that, the data set is tiny - think of it this way. Lets say the Heat are beating the Celtics by four on Friday with less than five minutes to go. If the Celtics take five shots and hit them all but still lose, this stat now shows 8-22 shooting during clutch situations. That still isn't great but what does that say about what Robb's point?

All I know is that in these games, a missed open look hurts whether its in the first or during the last few minutes. Its not a stretch to say that two more Celtics made open looks could result in them having a commanding lead in the series. And those misses weren't all during "clutch" time.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't deny that intensity changes at various points of games and I am not suggesting that Miami isn't forcing Boston into bad execution - they are indeed doing that. However, citing those "clutch" stats as a factor in this series seems like a stretch to me. These are mostly one to two possession games. If the Celtics hit one more open look (note not the looks where the Heat are contesting) in any of their losses and then we might be discussing the Heat's lack of late game shooting.

People can polish this turd of a stat all they want but I am not sure it tells you anything you didn't know. These games are close and both teams have struggled in stretches. Beyond that, its subjective interpretation.
I disagree. From my seat, seeing Miami have success down the stretch of games while the Celtics have not shows me the gap between the two teams which I have been preaching prior to and throughout the series here and in the betting thread.

I can see how people can disagree being that the total points are equal however that’s not how I’ve viewed this series. Having said that.....I expect the Celtics to have the same sense of urgency they had in G3 to force a 6th game although a loss wouldn’t shock me since I’ve had Miami as their better team all playoffs.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I disagree. From my seat, seeing Miami have success down the stretch of games while the Celtics have not shows me the gap between the two teams which I have been preaching prior to and throughout the series here and in the betting thread.

I can see how people can disagree being that the total points are equal however that’s not how I’ve viewed this series. Having said that.....I expect the Celtics to have the same sense of urgency they had in G3 to force a 6th game although a loss wouldn’t shock me since I’ve had Miami as their better team all playoffs.
The margins you are referring to - Miami winning by one to two possessions - are statistically meaningless. You are adding a qualitative layer to the data that is highly subjective.

Let me give you some other data that I think is more meaningful. If you use NBA's advanced stats tools, you can look at shooting. Its almost certainly not perfectly accurate but if you look at the Celtics wide open shooting (closest defenders are beyond six feet away) it shows some interesting trends.

For the regular season, they shot 44.8% overall and 39.7% from deep. During the playoffs, they are shooting 43.6% and 36.5% respectively. In these four games they are shooting 45.8% and 34.1%. In short, if the C's just made their open looks from three (again, Miami isn't defending the shooter in these instances) at their overall playoff rate, they may have a commanding lead in the series. If they hit at their regular season rate, the series is likely at least tied or perhaps even over.

Are they missing these open looks because of the pressure? Perhaps. However as you always point out, its a make or miss league. The Celtics aren't even making the easy shots this series let alone the clutch ones. It all is likely noise but if you are going to try to address a problem, fixing players poor response to pressure situation - assuming the clutch thing is even right- seems like a tougher place to start versus figuring out if they can improve their shotmaking on open looks.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The margins you are referring to - Miami winning by one to two possessions - are statistically meaningless. You are adding a qualitative layer to the data that is highly subjective.

Let me give you some other data that I think is more meaningful. If you use NBA's advanced stats tools, you can look at shooting. Its almost certainly not perfectly accurate but if you look at the Celtics wide open shooting (closest defenders are beyond six feet away) it shows some interesting trends.

For the regular season, they shot 44.8% overall and 39.7% from deep. During the playoffs, they are shooting 43.6% and 36.5% respectively. In these four games they are shooting 45.8% and 34.1%. In short, if the C's just made their open looks from three (again, Miami isn't defending the shooter in these instances) at their overall playoff rate, they may have a commanding lead in the series. If they hit at their regular season rate, the series is likely at least tied or perhaps even over.

Are they missing these open looks because of the pressure? Perhaps. However as you always point out, its a make or miss league. The Celtics aren't even making the easy shots this series let alone the clutch ones. It all is likely noise but if you are going to try to address a problem, fixing players poor response to pressure situation - assuming the clutch thing is even right- seems like a tougher place to start versus figuring out if they can improve their shotmaking on open looks.
This is all assuming that an uncontested jump shot in the playoffs is of equal difficulty as it is in the regular season which we know is not the case. What happens when you compare Miami’s uncontested shooting in this series to that of the regular season? Is there any team that shoots even uncontested shots in the playoffs at the same rate of the regular season?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The Lakers, Clippers and Blazers to name a few.

Let's look at it this way. Robb didn't offer Miami's clutch shooting as he defines it. I don't know what it will show but does your view change if they are actually worse than Boston in the same situations? I already posted Miami's shooting during the series and its not beyond the pale to think they may be even less "clutch" than the Celtics.

IMO, Robb cites a BS stat that allows the "good face/intangibles" crowd to have a take. YRMV
 

dhellers

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It seems that the Celts narrow focus too much at the end of games. Which leads to ineffective possessions (i.e.; Tatum pounding the ball for 15 seconds), and turnovers.
Miami isn't great, but they seem to be somewhat more consistent -- and Butler stands out as being productive.

Is this just bad luck, inexperience, or a flaw in the skills and mindset of the team. I do not think it's a flaw -- but at this moment it is not a strength

(don't forget, the celts got uncomfortably close to losing Game 3-- it took a semi-bailout drive by Smart to get back in control.

Also: Kemba is capable of being the closer, who can score when everyone is tired. After the all start game injury, he can't be counted on to do that. That may be a bigger injury that GH's ankle.
 

reggiecleveland

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It seems that the Celts narrow focus too much at the end of games. Which leads to ineffective possessions (i.e.; Tatum pounding the ball for 15 seconds), and turnovers.
Miami isn't great, but they seem to be somewhat more consistent -- and Butler stands out as being productive.

Is this just bad luck, inexperience, or a flaw in the skills and mindset of the team. I do not think it's a flaw -- but at this moment it is not a strength

(don't forget, the celts got uncomfortably close to losing Game 3-- it took a semi-bailout drive by Smart to get back in control.

Also: Kemba is capable of being the closer, who can score when everyone is tired. After the all start game injury, he can't be counted on to do that. That may be a bigger injury that GH's ankle.
I said this in a gamethread, but a very successful coach I know, told me too often teams go against their strength down the stretch. The 24 second clock, to him ( he convinced me) means you just have to keep scoring, and playing the clock really shoudn't matter until the last minute. The 3pt line and a 24SC means even say up 5, 1:20 left the other team probably gets 3 shots, even 4. So if you piss 1 or two of your possessions away running the clock down, you really hurt your self. Easy to see you run it down the 1 minute, miss and other team drills a 3, you are now up 2 with 50-45 left, and maybe feeling the pressure a bit. The most important thing is to win possessions, so keep playing your game, push it in transition, just score when you have the ball. The Cs are best when running and I believe game 2 (too lazy to look it up) they had 0 transition points in the 2nd half as they blew the lead. The biggest advantage, to me at least Cs have, is Brown, Tatum atacking in transition, scoring in the key. Butler, Crowder, Robinson, don't want to run with them. They need to fire the ball up the sideline against the zone and stop attacking the top where the Heat put their best guys, and Bam can square up the drive. The heat know this two and brought the back the zone up to contest upcourts, and the Cs just made horrible decisions. They have to get rolling and score 110 to win.

They get into a grinder and start walking it up the Heat can call the "Who is Kemba guarding?" play.
 

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I feel like a common problem in a few of these losses has really been poor decisions in the final 2 minutes. We have the inexcusable (turnovers, offensive fouls, throwing the ball away) and the debatable (just trying to run out the clock, rather than running a play to try and score).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The biggest advantage, to me at least Cs have, is Brown, Tatum atacking in transition, scoring in the key. Butler, Crowder, Robinson, don't want to run with them. They need to fire the ball up the sideline against the zone and stop attacking the top where the Heat put their best guys, and Bam can square up the drive. The heat know this two and brought the back the zone up to contest upcourts, and the Cs just made horrible decisions. They have to get rolling and score 110 to win.
Good call. One of the things I don't understand about the Cs is why they don't push the ball harder. Look at LAL VS. DEN - they push whenever possible, even after made baskets. Seems like Cs only push on TOs or long rebounds.

I'll stick by my assertion that the Cs have the more talented team but to counter MIA's better execution, they have to play with greater force/pace/spirit/energy/whatever-anyone-wants-to-call-it. Will be interesting to see if it's sustainable. I mean even in their two wins they haven't really played a full game yet. (I'll note the the two or three extra games v TOR aren't helping IMO).

They can absolutely win Sunday.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Whew. They really found a gear in the second half, finally consistently going to the basket, and actually making a chunk of their open 3s.

The first quarter felt like a continuation of game 4... turnovers galore, sluggish, settling for 3s and missing. It did feel over, but with the caveat to see what they did in the second half before writing them off. 70 second-half points later and we have a series.
 

amarshal2

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It was really nice to see the 2019-20 Boston Celtics show up in that second half. That team seems like it could win 3 straight.
 

lovegtm

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Yeah, I think I mentioned that in Game 3 they had really good success getting Bam to switch onto guys like Walker and Tatum, and then swinging the ball while “pinning” Bam to the elite shooter.

I didn’t get exactly why they went away from it in Game 4, other than that Game 4 was a complete shitshow from an effort and execution standpoint.

The other key this game is that they finally found simple, devastating counters to Miami’s zone. Just set high screens with Theis, and Kemba can walk into 3s, clean pullup 2s, or draw help.

If the Celtics could maintain intensity, they could have won this series in 5. As it is, they’re still very much alive. As noted above, the Toronto fatigue probably got to them, but now we’re deep enough into the series that Miami is tired too.
 

Imbricus

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Had to miss the second half, watched the highlights this morning, and ... wow. Second-half team was night and day from the mess that showed up in the first quarter. 538 now giving us a better chance (as of 6:02 a.m.) to win the championship than the Lakers, 22% to 20%. Gotta love that shamrock-flavored algorithm. ;)
 

Eddie Jurak

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Had to miss the second half, watched the highlights this morning, and ... wow. Second-half team was night and day from the mess that showed up in the first quarter. 538 now giving us a better chance (as of 6:02 a.m.) to win the championship than the Lakers, 22% to 20%. Gotta love that shamrock-flavored algorithm. ;)
Yep - they haven't had a half like they did in the second half yesterday in a long while. If they can keep bringing it like that, they can win.
 

lovegtm

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Win or lose, I think it's good for the Celtics to face this kind of series deficit and show some fight. They had been front-running heavily in all the prior series wins with this group.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah, I think I mentioned that in Game 3 they had really good success getting Bam to switch onto guys like Walker and Tatum, and then swinging the ball while “pinning” Bam to the elite shooter.

I didn’t get exactly why they went away from it in Game 4, other than that Game 4 was a complete shitshow from an effort and execution standpoint.

The other key this game is that they finally found simple, devastating counters to Miami’s zone. Just set high screens with Theis, and Kemba can walk into 3s, clean pullup 2s, or draw help.

If the Celtics could maintain intensity, they could have won this series in 5. As it is, they’re still very much alive. As noted above, the Toronto fatigue probably got to them, but now we’re deep enough into the series that Miami is tired too.
Cs scored 60 points in the paint in Game 3. They scored 52 points in the paint (out of 56) in the last 3Qs of Game 5. As I just said in the game thread, when Bam is out of the paint, MIA isn't playing anyone that is going to give the Cs problems at the rim. Not sure what happened in Game 4 but it seems pretty clear to me what BOS needs to do.

Wonder if Myers Leonard will make an appearance in game 6?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Good call. One of the things I don't understand about the Cs is why they don't push the ball harder. Look at LAL VS. DEN - they push whenever possible, even after made baskets. Seems like Cs only push on TOs or long rebounds.

I'll stick by my assertion that the Cs have the more talented team but to counter MIA's better execution, they have to play with greater force/pace/spirit/energy/whatever-anyone-wants-to-call-it. Will be interesting to see if it's sustainable. I mean even in their two wins they haven't really played a full game yet. (I'll note the the two or three extra games v TOR aren't helping IMO).

They can absolutely win Sunday.
Looked like a very concerted effort to push the ball much more off misses last night. Jaylen specifically was looking for these openings whenever possible. I think the go-ahead bucket from which they never looked back was Jaylen catching up and blowing by everyone, and Kemba laid it off to him for the easy lay-in.

Jaylen’s work in the paint last night in general was phenomenal. Watching him absolutely roast Herro was cathartic. He’s so much calmer and more savvy as a finisher than he used to be.
 

lovegtm

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Cs scored 60 points in the paint in Game 3. They scored 52 points in the paint (out of 56) in the last 3Qs of Game 5. As I just said in the game thread, when Bam is out of the paint, MIA isn't playing anyone that is going to give the Cs problems at the rim. Not sure what happened in Game 4 but it seems pretty clear to me what BOS needs to do.

Wonder if Myers Leonard will make an appearance in game 6?
It's so frustrating, because the only real counter the Heat have shown to this approach vs Bam is to go zone, and the Celtics have ways to beat that, but it took them forever to get that flow together, and now they may run out of games in the series.
 

amarshal2

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Looked like a very concerted effort to push the ball much more off misses last night. Jaylen specifically was looking for these openings whenever possible. I think the go-ahead bucket from which they never looked back was Jaylen catching up and blowing by everyone, and Kemba laid it off to him for the easy lay-in.

Jaylen’s work in the paint last night in general was phenomenal. Watching him absolutely roast Herro was cathartic. He’s so much calmer and more savvy as a finisher than he used to be.
This. The frustrating thing is this has always been a part of their game this year but there has been none of this the first 4 games. And it’s not like Miami was taking it away before and then lapsed in game 5. Jaylen is so fast and strong he created these opportunities from nothing by just running harder. The one with Kemba, Brown started well behind the break and just flew by everyone. He’s been doing this consistently to my eye but his teammates just haven’t been finding him (ahem Smart, ahem). And honestly they missed him plenty of times last night too.

Another thing I think was significant is Hayward looked like 85% of himself in the second half. He was getting into the interior and making things happen. He doesn’t seem to have his shot yet and his hops aren’t as good as they were in the bubble pre injury but if they get that Gordon on Sunday he could break out for 20+ and swing the game.

They scored 121 points while shooting 30% from three. It’s not like it was some lucky game where they just hit everything. Their offense looked like the early bubble offense there for a while. If they keep up the intensity and their shots fall they can be up over 110 with regularity.
 
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chilidawg

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Slight edge to the C's in shooting (efg% 51/49) and turnovers (12/11), the big difference statistically was offensive rebounding where we doubled them up. Sustainable?

Also, first game of the series where the pace got over 100 possessions/48. Pace in the 2 wins 101 and 99, in the losses 90,93 and 97. Play faster.
 

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Close your eyes and imagine that third quarter with Kanter starting in lieu of Theis. That is what Van Gundy and Jackson were all over as their adjustment. That is what you might get with another more traditional coach (yelling at players and officials, mugging for the cameras).

Its not lost that Kanter can be effective in small doses - he is the epitome of a basketball blunt tool - but their failure to address how he gets absolutely abused in PnR is terrible for people who should know better.

Of course, were either coaching this team, its questionable if they even make it to the EC semis let alone this round.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Its not lost that Kanter can be effective in small doses - he is the epitome of a basketball blunt tool - but their failure to address how he gets absolutely abused in PnR is terrible for people who should know better.
Some things are unfixable. There was one sequence on the very first possession following a timeout where Kanter wasn’t screened, wasnt schemed.....he simply didn’t know where his man was as the Heat got off (and fortunately missed) and uncontested 3 out of the timeout. The best way to get value out of Kanter is, as you say, use him in small doses and run action with him on the offensive end for his entire rotation.
 

dhellers

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Close your eyes and imagine that third quarter with Kanter starting in lieu of Theis. That is what Van Gundy and Jackson were all over as their adjustment. That is what you might get with another more traditional coach (yelling at players and officials, mugging for the cameras).

Its not lost that Kanter can be effective in small doses - he is the epitome of a basketball blunt tool - but their failure to address how he gets absolutely abused in PnR is terrible for people who should know better.

Of course, were either coaching this team, its questionable of they even make it to the EC semis let alone this round.
Kanter is useful when you are willing to tread water. Due to his D'ficiencies, it is not likely you can pull ahead while he is on the court. But he can score when no one else is doing anything.

IOW: when the celts are in the middle of a scoring slump, Kanter for a few minutes can be a useful option. Since if the other team is scoring anyways, the proportional damage to defence that Kanter causes is more than outweighed by his the proportional increase in offense he can bring.

But not more than a few minutes: his efficiency seems to drop quickly once he gets fatigued
 

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Kanter is also fine when the other team has a big, bruising center because the Celtics don't really have much size and power at center. Williams is athletic but doesn't weigh much. Theis isn't tall. Kanter is really their only legit big, tall, strongman in the middle and sometimes you need that. He was very helpful against Embiid. He likely would also be pretty useful against Dwight Howard in a potential finals matchup.
 

chilidawg

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Kanter is useful when you are willing to tread water. Due to his D'ficiencies, it is not likely you can pull ahead while he is on the court. But he can score when no one else is doing anything.
Small sample size (95 minutes), but the C's are +20.7/100 possessions, best on the team, when Kanter is on the floor in the playoffs. So they've done exactly what you've claimed they can't do, pull ahead when he's on the floor.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Small sample size (95 minutes), but the C's are +20.7/100 possessions, best on the team, when Kanter is on the floor in the playoffs. So they've done exactly what you've claimed they can't do, pull ahead when he's on the floor.
60 of those minutes were against Philly, where he would have been matching up against Embiid and where the lack of a pick and roll threat would limit the defensive worries. Curious to see how those +/- stats break down when looked at by opponent, though at that point that sample sizes get sliced so finely it's hard draw real any conclusions.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I like Enes Kanter, but the limitations are real. I wonder if there are certain bench limeups where he can be more easily hidden, and if Brad should look to get him some time in those situations.
 

ZMart100

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Kanter is such a change of look that it can take the Heat time to figure out how to adjust how they play. The Celtics can do well during that confusion. Leave him out too long and they do adjust. He's helpful in rare short bursts, but will get exposed after about 5 minutes.
 

dhellers

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Small sample size (95 minutes), but the C's are +20.7/100 possessions, best on the team, when Kanter is on the floor in the playoffs. So they've done exactly what you've claimed they can't do, pull ahead when he's on the floor.
Well.....moving the scoreboard a point or three in your favor is a good thing, but is a rather a thin version of pull ahead.

But whatever... the. Consensus is consistent... kanter can be useful in a limited role
 

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Well.....moving the scoreboard a point or three in your favor is a good thing, but is a rather a thin version of pull ahead.

But whatever... the. Consensus is consistent... kanter can be useful in a limited role
Someone threw you a lifeline with the fact that most of Kanter’s minutes came against Philly, and instead you decided to go with “20pts/100 isn’t a lot”? Interesting choices.
 

lovegtm

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If we’re going to do NBA reffing conspiracy theories, shouldn’t the league be totally in the tank for Lakers-Celtics, with Tatum as easily the most marketable/popular “next face-of-the-league” type out of the Miami/Boston group?

Lakers-Celtics is always great TV, and LeBron vs. Tatum sells itself.

Get it done, Adam.
 

lovegtm

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The zone stuff here around 6:50 is fun. The Celtics adjusted nicely by setting high screens more to the side of the floor, so that if the 2nd high 2-3 defender helps, there is more space to work with.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDkY5B2vtlg


One thing about the Heat's zone is that they don't have the ability to throw as many types of looks as Toronto, so you can definitely get used to what they do. Spoelstra obviously knows this, which is why he's getting more reluctant to play it. There's a similar dynamic with their man defense: the Celtics are getting very comfortable with the reads that come when Bam is dragged out of the paint, and the Heat haven't found counters to that yet.

This series really feels like a race against time for both teams: with Hayward back, the Celtics are getting increasingly comfortable against Miami's base looks and can stay fresh later in games, but the Heat had that 3-1 lead. By analogy, the series at this point is like a game in which the Heat have an 8 point 4th quarter lead, but the Celtics have the momentum and figured something out in the 3rd quarter;.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If we’re going to do NBA reffing conspiracy theories, shouldn’t the league be totally in the tank for Lakers-Celtics, with Tatum as easily the most marketable/popular “next face-of-the-league” type out of the Miami/Boston group?

Lakers-Celtics is always great TV, and LeBron vs. Tatum sells itself.

Get it done, Adam.
Alternate narrative - earlier tonight on the NBA on TNT, Shaq made a joke that the Lakers want the Heat. Its possible that its true given the Heat/LeBron and Laker/Riley connections.

Back to the series at hand, tomorrow's game feels like one where if the Celtics are able to replicate their success from Friday's second half, Miami will be in trouble. In another example of silly commentating, that same TNT crew essentially picked the Heat because the Celtics "take turns" when most analysis is focused on the Celtics adjustments. The other story here is Bam's health. He says he is good but that last game suggests otherwise.
 

lovegtm

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...
Back to the series at hand, tomorrow's game feels like one where if the Celtics are able to replicate their success from Friday's second half, Miami will be in trouble. In another example of silly commentating, that same TNT crew essentially picked the Heat because the Celtics "take turns" when most analysis is focused on the Celtics adjustments. The other story here is Bam's health. He says he is good but that last game suggests otherwise.
Yup, the Celtics have clearly figured some stuff out (we can see this in Spoelstra's revealed preferences), and Bam seems to have been neutralized somewhat either through health issues or Boston effort or both.

If this series were starting from scratch tomorrow, I'd pick Celtics in 5, but of course it's not, and 2 games in hand is a big deal.

Win or lose, I think this series will be a big experience for Tatum/Brown/Smart, just because of how often we see young, emerging NBA powerhouses need a couple tries to figure out how to get past veteran teams.
 

The Social Chair

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If we’re going to do NBA reffing conspiracy theories, shouldn’t the league be totally in the tank for Lakers-Celtics, with Tatum as easily the most marketable/popular “next face-of-the-league” type out of the Miami/Boston group?

Lakers-Celtics is always great TV, and LeBron vs. Tatum sells itself.

Get it done, Adam.
NBA isn't too concerned about the ratings in the bubble. I think the league just wants to get through the playoffs as fast as possible for contractual purposes.

They scheduled games 3 and 6 of the finals against Sunday Night Football, and will get crushed.
 

BaseballJones

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The zone stuff here around 6:50 is fun. The Celtics adjusted nicely by setting high screens more to the side of the floor, so that if the 2nd high 2-3 defender helps, there is more space to work with.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDkY5B2vtlg


One thing about the Heat's zone is that they don't have the ability to throw as many types of looks as Toronto, so you can definitely get used to what they do. Spoelstra obviously knows this, which is why he's getting more reluctant to play it. There's a similar dynamic with their man defense: the Celtics are getting very comfortable with the reads that come when Bam is dragged out of the paint, and the Heat haven't found counters to that yet.

This series really feels like a race against time for both teams: with Hayward back, the Celtics are getting increasingly comfortable against Miami's base looks and can stay fresh later in games, but the Heat had that 3-1 lead. By analogy, the series at this point is like a game in which the Heat have an 8 point 4th quarter lead, but the Celtics have the momentum and figured something out in the 3rd quarter;.
As much as I love the intensity and unpredictability of one-and-done postseason tournaments, what you’re talking about here is really why best of seven series’ are awesome. There’s so much figuring out and then adjusting. Fascinating to watch.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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As much as I love the intensity and unpredictability of one-and-done postseason tournaments, what you’re talking about here is really why best of seven series’ are awesome. There’s so much figuring out and then adjusting. Fascinating to watch.
Yeah, playoff BBall is the bomb. I wonder what adjustments Spolestra is going to make? Maybe start Herro? Not sure what choices he has.
 

PedroKsBambino

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One adjustment I wouldn't be surprised to see from Spo is more high-post Bam starting half-court sets. It's not perfect for Miami, but Celtics don't match up well with it and could be a useful change of pace for them to use it more often (they already do use it)
 

HomeRunBaker

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It sure would be nice if someone would closeout on Iguodala. Theis was admiring Iggys release like a kid opening presents on Christmas.