You are absolutely right and I was wrong (don’t hear that much around here ). I guess my main point is that there is not a process that excludes/ignores circumstances.
The HC Search
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So as people connected to the league have talked about, interviews aren't just about guy you might hire, but also info gathering.
But looking at the Jags list.. all of them? Those are all guys who have worked in successful organizations, bring interesting information and plans for you to look at and are qualified to be a HC either now or in the future... It would have pretty good value to ask all of them how they would deal with your QB, your young talent on D, etc. I think a lot of teams in the past also (obviously Tomlin is the biggest example) have interviewed guys who were not big names and found really good coaches that way. Others have found guys who they didn't hire, but then ended up with as an OC or the like (Titans interviewed Matt LaFleur when the interviewed Vrabel, then gave him a big offer to be OC).
But Vance Joseph is a huge part of the point. If they hired, let’s say Bruce Arians, who came in and did a great job then it wouldn’t be used as a referendum.
I’ve been pretty steadfast that I think they should have interviewed more people, no question (ideally you get Aaron Glenn and Liam Coen in for interviews too), because there’s no downside to it. I think that would have been a better process.
However, Vrabel is a damn good coach. They aren’t exactly dumpster diving here. This is a guy that’s incredibly well respected throughout the league.
I am really surprised there’s so much doom and gloom about him. Yes, he may harken back to “The Patriot Way” but he’s spent time outside of the organization and has a much deeper understanding of internal processes and a deeper Rolodex of coaches than Mayo. I don’t think this is a case of Kraft desperately clinging to old and outdated methods
However, Vrabel is a damn good coach. They aren’t exactly dumpster diving here. This is a guy that’s incredibly well respected throughout the league.
I am really surprised there’s so much doom and gloom about him. Yes, he may harken back to “The Patriot Way” but he’s spent time outside of the organization and has a much deeper understanding of internal processes and a deeper Rolodex of coaches than Mayo. I don’t think this is a case of Kraft desperately clinging to old and outdated methods
Doesn't that cut both ways, though? He didn't hire another coach for 24 years because he made one of the best hires in league history, and -- despite how things ended -- managed to keep him happy enough to stay here for a quarter century.
If you’re discussing his legacy it does. If you’re concerned about his approach to the head coaching search today, which is what we are talking about, it doesn’t. A lot changed in 25 years.
Breer made a point today on his radio spot about Vrabel that needs to be said. This will be his second go-round as a head coach, wherever he goes, and since third times are rare, is this the right move for him. We know the plusses, but there also what was termed the entrenched "organizational rot" surrounding whoever the new coach might be.
Breer suggested that this could be a 2-3 year turnaround at best, and would the Krafts, the media and fanbase have the patience to wait that long? Would Vrabel want to deal with that, as opposed to going somewhere else where the leash might be longer?
In the end, I don't think it'll stop this from happening, but it's something Vrabel might be working through before taking it on.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPfRba5PAfQ
Breer suggested that this could be a 2-3 year turnaround at best, and would the Krafts, the media and fanbase have the patience to wait that long? Would Vrabel want to deal with that, as opposed to going somewhere else where the leash might be longer?
In the end, I don't think it'll stop this from happening, but it's something Vrabel might be working through before taking it on.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPfRba5PAfQ
As I said, some posters are really committed to being negative.
Here’s the one point where I agree with the Process Humpers: if the Pats have zeroed their search in on Vrabel and are mostly engineering this process to result in Vrabel being their HC—getting quickly through Rooney Rule requirements, minimizing the number of other candidates they are interviewing—what happens if Vrabel turns them down?
Honestly, that is the biggest concern I have with the Krafts expediting this search process: it makes them very vulnerable should Vrabel decide to go elsewhere.
So looking at it from Vrabel's perspective.... I'm not 100% sure this is the best job for him.
Pros.
High potential young QB
Ton of money
Desperate old owner will probably give you a lot of control
Maybe a small bit of goodwill from being a former player?
Cons
Roster is barebones
Organization is outdated by all accounts
Some owner concerns (how involved, how much does he listen to radio/fans, is there a transition coming to son)
Tough media market
LV has no QB, so a drawback there, but otherwise set up for at least moderate success sooner, better roster than NE, clean slate in the F.O.... but QB.... CHI is maybe the best set up for success in terms of roster, but their ownership/management situation has to be pretty scary to coaches.
Edit- my guess is if offered he'll take NE. It's a bird in the hand, and he has a relationship with ownership, he'll take what he sees as the safer path over the risk of LV or CHI I think.
The Patriots job is arguably the best one out there. Both Vrabel and Ben Johnson are reported to want the job. I don't imagine Vrabel would pick coaching the Woody Johnson shit-show situation with the jets over the Patriots job, no matter how much better the NYJ roster may be. I'm guessing that the Raiders with Brady/Seymour minority ownership is more tempting than the jets, more of a risk. I still suspect the general feeling of familiarity and relative stability keeps RKK and the Foxboro job at the front of the line for Vrabel.
This is part of why I personally think the Bears and Jags jobs are just as appealing as the Pats job -- not to mention the extra skill position talent on those rosters as opposed to the Pats' -- but I'm in the minority there.
To this point, Vrabel has (it seems to me) basically been almost actively campaigning for this job for the past few months, according to many people in the media and unnamed sources, and perfectly timed stories that he would be very interested in the job. And Vrabel is obviously well aware of the situation with the Pats, the media in the region, and the ownership situation.
Wait – but doesn't the catastrophic short-lived Mayo tenure make it MORE likely that Vrabel will have a longer leash in NE?
Maybe? Breer addresses it, and it's 50/50, on the one hand yes, there is the question of whether the Patriots would want to look dysfunctional. On the other hand, being seen not to have done a real process again might lead to a lot more criticism than normal. Also might depend who is out there.
We think "can't fire two head coaches in a row after 1 year".... but amusingly it has happened twice. HOU fired 2 HCs in a row... first a 1st time HC, then an experienced one... 3rd year they hired 1st timer Ryans.
San Francisco had a 1st time HC who was terrible, fired him for a "proven playoff" HC... fired him after a year, and hired 1st timer Kyle Shanahan
yeah this feels like the right take. Unless Vrabel has major concerns about Wolf/power dynamics in the front office, I have to think he will take the job.
I don’t think Kraft really has any interest in anyone else so I’m sure he will make an offer that satisfies Vrabel
As a general matter, I think it makes more sense to select a small number of finalists for a role and conduct in-depth interviews with each of them than to do in-depth interviews with 8-10 people. The latter approach invites subjectivity — presumably, there are a small number of candidates in the larger group that are more qualified than the others, and it’s unlikely that any reasonable difference in interview performance would vault the less qualified candidates over the more qualified ones.
If the two Rooney Rule interviews are shams, and the Pats are only really considering two candidates, that’s too thin — but I’m saying there should be another serious candidate or two in the mix, not another half dozen.
It’s not a terrible slate for the Jags. Moore and Brady each have a chance to be the hotshot coordinator in a year or two that Johnson is now; the Jags aren’t going to get Johnson, so maybe they should gamble on one of those guys rather than hiring a retread. But I don’t see any names on that list besides Johnson that make me say “geez, that’s a guy the Pats should interview.
FWIW, I think the bolded gets exaggerated. Virtually every fanbase - including Boston - is fine with a few years turnaround time if there is a plan that works towards and yields reasonable results. Though he had several flaws, the reason Mayo does not have a job with the Pats any more is because there were no signs of improvement from the team.
They can for sure, I think he generally has been consistent saying that the problem is rebuilds involve a lot more than just slotting in a new coach, and from what he hears and sees the Patriots don't seem to be doing that. He's said all along he thinks Vrabel is a good coach and a potential good hire, but he thinks everything around it shows an organization that is not operating at the same level as well run organizations.
The Red Wing closed. A traumatic day for all current and former residents of the 'Boro.
We still have no idea where Jeremy Fowler got that line, do we? Or if he's just reading between the lines?
I personally hope they pick Johnson
Staying away from Johnson because the Mayo first year head coach experience seems very short sighted.
Have to wonder how much pull Wolf has in all of this. Kind of feels like the X factor
Staying away from Johnson because the Mayo first year head coach experience seems very short sighted.
Have to wonder how much pull Wolf has in all of this. Kind of feels like the X factor
A 2 year turnaround? *That* requires patience Kraft and the fans won't have?
The talent and coaching on this year's team was abysmal, and yet they won 4 games. Seems like a small upgrade in talent and a substantial upgrade in coaching could be worth 2-3 wins in 2025. And then, if we've drafted well and brought in some good FAs, we'd have an emerging core of good players to build into a wild card contender in 2026.
If that's too long then what are we even talking about here?! That we demand a SB appearance next season?
I think Breer's done a good job of reporting the past few weeks, but this take seems silly.
Breer has had a few appearances on radio recently, and I think he makes some good points. I do not think it is hyperbole when he talks about just how far behind the curve this organization is from a program building standpoint. Any coach that is hired will have to essentially bring an entire staff with them, from coordinators down to analytics and scouting. Obviously most new coaches will want their own guys, but it seems like there is a fundamental lack of infrastructure starting at the ground level. There is no quick fix here and ownership has dropped the ball when it comes to keeping up with the league.
Vrabel defineitely falls into the camp of "guys we already know", but at least he has spend years outside of the organization has has developed his own relationships and networks. I feel like the Krafts believe that they know what is best, but it has become clear that they really don't. The next coach will have to build some type of culture and there cannot be any short cuts taken.
Breer can be kind of aloof and annoying at times, but he is clearly tapped into the league. He sees what a well-run organization looks like and the Patriots are not that right now.
Vrabel defineitely falls into the camp of "guys we already know", but at least he has spend years outside of the organization has has developed his own relationships and networks. I feel like the Krafts believe that they know what is best, but it has become clear that they really don't. The next coach will have to build some type of culture and there cannot be any short cuts taken.
Breer can be kind of aloof and annoying at times, but he is clearly tapped into the league. He sees what a well-run organization looks like and the Patriots are not that right now.
That's not an accurate representation of what happened with Parcells, and everyone knows that. No need to repeat the same incorrect bullshit over and over again.
Whenever an access guy like Breer calls out anyone publicly, I have to wonder what the behind the scenes machinations are. If he felt this way but was trying to build or preserve a relationship, he just wouldn’t say anything, or he’d skirt it.
it’s actually quite correct and documented that Parcells hated Kraft putting other people in the middle of personnel matters. He thought Grier and others didn’t know what he (Parcells) needed but Kraft was adamant that he (Kraft) knew what the front office needed
there’s literally multiple on the record interviews from Parcells when he says Kraft interfering with personnel was a driving force in him leaving
So if “everyone knows” that isn’t the case, then perhaps you should clue in Parcells with this common knowledge that contradicts his story all these years later
I think you’re conflating Kraft refusing to give Parcells total control with Kraft meddling.
If Kraft was personally directing personnel decisions, that’s meddling. If he was defending the GM’s authority against the head coach, that might have been a bad idea, but it’s not meddling.
I get your point: Vrabel has real coaching experience and some level of success. But it’s funny because none of us would sign on for 54-45 and 2-3. And if he does exactly that here, while we will all have some enjoyable moments, we also will all want him fired.
Beyond that, I could have used the Chip Kelly example I guess if people prefer... SF got lucky that Shanahan lasted another year in the market, because they said "we can't have another 1st time HC" interviewed all experienced guys and landed on Kelly (who was 26-21 and 1-1 in the playoffs) as the "top experienced guy on the market"... turned out, no floor on any coach, he was terrible, they cleaned house, rebuilt everything from scratch and became one of the most consistently winning franchises.
The general point would be the same... coaching searches are hard, most coaches fail, but when you lock in on either a guy or an achtype before you even start, you can be cutting the best options out of even getting considered.
If Drake Maye ends up being no better than Ryan Tannehill we’d probably be ok with those results. I’m more concerned about the way Vrabel’s tenure ended than the results he got prior to his final year there.
Parcells went on record (publicly) as saying he would only coach the Patriots "year to year", and Kraft made it clear that if that was the case, then he couldn't give Parcells final say on the roster.
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25 years ago we got a guy who went 36-44 (1–1 postseason) and that worked out pretty well. While the roster was in better shape then with regards the personnel the cap was a mess. No one is saying he’s ever going to BB because that’s not going to happen again but to me Vrabel is the guy that can lead a room and accelerate this rebuild. I think he’s worth at least 2 extra wins without even improving the talent. That’s how bad Jerod Mayo was.
People keep mentioning a floor with Vrabel like its a good thing.
I know what it or a "floor raiser" is in the context of outcomes but I am not sure that applies here. Exactly zero coaches guarantee wins of any sort or any number. So that isn't real. And if we are saying that a coach will get competent enough play, I am not sure that's a fun team to root for.
If I am hiring a coach to win at the highest level I want the ceiling raiser. Floor raisers manage retail franchises. Ceiling raisers get rings.
I'd be careful about assuming you speak for the whole board on this
55-45 is 55% average winning percentage
If under the next coach (Vrabel or Johnson) the team wins 5, 7, 10, 11, and 13 games over the next five years than that coach would have, on average, a 54% winning percentage
And my first instinct isn't to call for someone with that record to be fired
Volin keeps mentioning that Kraft was privately confiding last spring that the rebuild was going to take multiple seasons. Seems consistent with his actions, as I really do think it was the manner in which the team played its games at the end of the season that had Kraft thinking that Mayo simply wasn't cut out for the job.
Yeah, I mean this whole sequence makes Kraft look like a good owner and Parcells like someone who wanted the freedom to make short-sighted decisions that he could walk away from the consequences of at the end of each season
Not really buying this is a bad mark on Kraft
Sure. And they moved on again a year later and are now considered one of the most successful franchises of the last decade.
Listen, I love football and I get that there are complexities but I think we are beginning to talk about this like building a team is nuclear fusion or curing cancer. As someone noted upthread, they won four games with a roster that had poor coaching and was almost completely bereft of top talent. There’s also some luck involved even with the best coaches. Andy Reid is now the gold standard and, well, he was seen as kind of a super talented failure before Mahomes. The same was true of Belichick before Brady.
I don’t want them to be some perennial 7-8-9 win team either but there’s no reason to believe they are destined to be that team because the Krafts trusted their business instincts on this hire instead of pumping various candidates for their 400 page treatises on zone blocking. I mean, who are the Krafts to be doing that anyway? You want someone who is highly respected by their football peers, who can handle the New England market and is capable of managing a large, complex operation with Drake Maye at its helm.
Vegas or maybe even the Jets will have him long before then, if it's Vrabel it's going to happen sooner rather than later .
Well, 10,11,13 gets you to three playoff losses, with two wins in there. So you’re right. Probably just most of the board.
I think the idea of a high floor coach is the guy who reliably gets what you would expect out of the roster but not more. Mike Tomlin is exhibit A. Sure if you give any coach last year's NE OL/DL they aren't winning more than 6gms, hell swap OL/DL with the KC Cheifs this year and Reid is missing the playoffs. The problem with Tomlin and in general high floor coaches is they lack any sort of innovation to make the whole better than the pieces.
I don't know enough about Vrabel to definitively put him in that category but I lean that way.
On the other hand I think Reid, McVay, Shanahan, Campbell all seem to have the capacity to elevate their players.
Who was on the Zoom call for the Pats? Robert, Jonathan and Wolf? Sounds crazy but what about including Drake Maye? Not as though he’s like a years into their careers established QB like Brady or Peyton Manning, but I bet he’d prepare and ask some good questions. Too late anyway.
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