The HC Search
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Why? Vrabel is a fit for them based on all of their legwork going into this. Kraft clearly didn't start the process Sunday. But, Johnson is so highly thought of that they feel the need to do due diligence and see what he's about.
This is generally how the world works, to be fair. 90% of the time when an opening arises in business, the employers have an idea of who they want to fill it.
Wolf definitely wants Johnson as he has ties to him with John Dorsey in Detroit because he knows he is getting blown out if Vrabel comes to town.
What was the legwork going into this? Mayo has just been fired as a first year HC. Were they looking into potential successors with weeks to go into the season?
Yeah, that he didn't set up an interview with the Raiders at all makes me think he has been told it's his job
Correct. And this is their way of saying that. I don't think I've seen anything from them to this point that said as such.
Yeah, people point to the "oh Jon was calling people during the year to ask about how to support a coach"... I mean, ok?
There is not real leg work you can do on a coaching search that tells you anywhere near as much as .... actually interviewing a guy and having him present his plans for your franchise.
Bert Breer said he heard the Patriots were doing the prep for a new coach with a few weeks left in the season.
I will say, I'm a little worried that this is giving strong "Vance Joseph to the Broncos in 2017" vibes... where they interviewed only 4 candidates, Joseph was considered close to a lock and the only other "real candidate" was a young wunderkind OC who really wanted the job..... and they passed and let him go to SF.
Reports had it that they knew a few weeks ago that Mayo was likely gone, if I'm remembering correctly. So I'm sure they had begun their internal process already. Vrabel was an obvious - like in-your-face obvious - candidate that they probably already had done a ton of work on.
Except Joseph had zero track record as a head coach while the guy you think is Vance Joseph is 54-45 and 2-3 in the playoffs. Thats kind of a major difference.
Right if this was Mayo I would agree. Vance Joseph basically is Mayo at this point
Yeah, but I'm assuming they weren't talking to candidates who were under employ, so if this "legwork" was just figuring out if Vrabel would be interested, that's even worse.
I mean, no, because the point isn't Vance Joseph, it's that they didn't do a real search and missed out on one of the best HC classes in a long time...
Kyle Shanahan got a courtesy interview because of his dad
No interview for McVay
No interview for McDermott
They locked in on their candidate and never even opened themselves to the options is the point. They assumed they knew who they wanted and what he would be.
Vrabel has a nice track record, but it's far from a guarantee he succeeds, and not even considering more candidates because you lock into your guy is usually a bad move.
Almost surely
Kraft said at his end-of-season press conference that he became clear they needed to move on from Mayo with several weeks left in the season (full disclosure: I don't remember the exact phrasing, nor am going to look it up)
Even before that, if he was conflicted and thought maybe it was 50/50 he'd need to fire Mayo, that's when you put the search into motion and start doing your homework.
There are lots of ways to put together materials on the top candidates, talking about you want to prioritize in a hire, and start talking to people of the impressions of potential candidates without very many people knowing what's up.
So while I don't know anything, I'd be highly surprised if a whole bunch of potential candidate vetting hadn't happened before the end of the season.
Yeah, there is no tampering whatsoever in the NFL!
I'm sure the Kraft's did some back channel work once it became clear they were moving on from Mayo. Maybe not talking directly to Johnson but I'm sure they asked around the league, got recommendations, what do you think of our team, who should we talk to, etc.
Uh Vrabel was unemployed
Edit: or are you talking about the employed guys like Johnson?
You can still do research / legwork on guys that are employed. You just can't talk to them.
I didn't suggest that at all. I think they already had had contact with Vrabel the year before. They did their digging on what type of coach they'd be looking for, and the pros and cons of potential options. I'm sure they did a bunch of that work ahead of time. Those aren't like five minute conversations.
Agreed, completely. I used to hire very senior executives to work for me around the world. When dealing with Asia PAC and the Middle East, it all happened virtually….
No, he wasn't. He was employed by the Browns, who released his from his duties at the end of the season
Vrabel was "a coaching and personnel consultant with the Cleveland Browns."
I don't know if it's tampering for an organization to talk to someone who is a "consultant" for another team.
I don't know if it's tampering for an organization to talk to someone who is a "consultant" for another team.
Maybe it's just me, but if the Pats theoretically waited on Vrabel (though in my heart, I know they won't and I expect he will be announced as coach soon) and he was so anxious to get to a team that he goes and takes the Raiders job for example without going back to the Pats or anything... then maybe it wasn't the slam dunk fit we thought it was going to be? Like, if his sole criteria is "LV wanted me more, they made sure I left that building with a contract in hand" then maybe he really didn't care about NE or its situation or Kraft or anything all that much. In other words, if the Pats let Vrabel explore his options as they explore theirs results in Vrabel picking someone else, maybe that was just a better fit for him and leaves the Pats open for a better fit for them. Maybe it results in musical chairs and the Pats are screwed but I doubt that. I guess I don't see the urgency in getting Vrabel RIGHT NOW and that waiting for Johnson might mean missing out on Vrabel.
Also, I am distinctly under the impression at this point that it was, is, and always has been Vrabel's job to lose. 30 years ago, I think Kraft is a bit more bold. Today, I think he wants the guy who pulls them out of the cellar right now (7-10 years from now be damned) and the fact that Vrabel has the shine of being on those early Patriots dynasty teams certainly doesn't hurt.
Also, I am distinctly under the impression at this point that it was, is, and always has been Vrabel's job to lose. 30 years ago, I think Kraft is a bit more bold. Today, I think he wants the guy who pulls them out of the cellar right now (7-10 years from now be damned) and the fact that Vrabel has the shine of being on those early Patriots dynasty teams certainly doesn't hurt.
It is, you can't talk to anyone under contract, that's why Vrabel had his contract with the Browns end a week early, so he could interview for jobs and put pressure on Kraft and other owners to go with him over the playoff coaches (bird in the hand theory)
I’m curious what you folks (and other posters who have made similar arguments) think a NFL head coach search should look like.
A company typically will spend 6-9 months searching for a new CEO, which is the only hiring decision an ordinary business makes that’s as consequential as an NFL team’s choice of a head coach. Probably half that time is spent on identifying and screening candidates, which NFL teams don’t have to do — owners and GMs are generally familiar with the pool of qualified candidates, and know enough about them to immediately rule out ones who would obviously be a bad fit. Even so, there isn’t nearly enough time to do as thorough a process as an ordinary business would do — Vrabel and Johnson will be off the market in a few weeks, and other candidates the Pats like may be also. Teams that fire coaches do so on the first day of the offseason for a reason — the market is not kind to slow movers.
The Pats brought in five candidates for interviews. I think that’s a reasonable number — I doubt many companies interview more than five candidates for a CEO role, if you don’t count initial screening interviews. I’d feel better if the Pats had interviewed five legit candidates; I doubt Leftwich is a serious candidate, and Hamilton might not be either (though I’d be ok with it if Hamilton blew them away and they offered him the job). But the process doesn’t look like a sham to me; this is basically what an NFL coaching search looks like, especially when you’re offering the consensus* best job available and top candidates rearrange their schedules to meet with you quickly.
They’re done with interviews. They’ll likely do reference checks and extend an offer by the end of next week. That’s ok — I wish they talked to Glenn or Flores instead of Leftwich, but that’s nitpicking.
*- The Pats are fortunate at the collection of bad situations and bad owners with which they are competing. The Bears have the only other opening that’s better than awful. Teams like the Jaguars and Raiders may need to interview 8-10 candidates to have 4-5 real prospects in the mix; the Pats don’t.
Edit: 4 interviews, not 5 — thanks @mikcou
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I think that's worth very little without actually talking to prospective candidates, which is why 99% of teams interview more than a pair of them. We're still operating under the assumption that the Krafts have some sort of secret sauce and can make better decisions than the rest of the dunces even if based on less information. We'll see.
Honestly I am a bit concerned that the Krafts themselves are operating under that assumption. Which is how Mayo ended up HC.
yeah the lack of a search committee (which most teams are using these days), the fixation immediately on Vrabel indicates Kraft just wants to hire based on his gut intuition and not do a search
same as he did with BB and Mayo. He hires based on existing personal relationships and vibes.
I cant imagine the Krafts know enough about football and the day to day operations of being a coach to properly interview anyone beyond doing a vibe check and high level “what do you think we need to do”
if there were any serious football on-field X’s and O’s being considered, Mayo would never have been hired last year.
That’s who Bob Kraft has always been except when BB was bringing in AFC championships and super bowls every other year.
he thought he knew better than Parcells, he’s retconning the dynasty to make him (not BB) the architect and thinks he had a special insight to Mayo.
Kraft probably looks at all the wins and 10 Super Bowl appearances and pats himself on the back for being the genius who is responsible for it (well, him and Brady. Parcells and BB are just irrelevant to him I’m sure)
There is so much focus on process here, without regard for circumstances, which can drive process. Did the Pats interview 10 candidates before bringing on Parcells? Belichick? When circumstances change, process changes.
Here, if (and it’s a big if), reps for Vrabel and Johnson have both indicated they want the Pats‘ job, I would think the process might be different than for a team that might struggle to attract a strong candidate.
just my 2 cents.
Here, if (and it’s a big if), reps for Vrabel and Johnson have both indicated they want the Pats‘ job, I would think the process might be different than for a team that might struggle to attract a strong candidate.
just my 2 cents.
I read somewhere that Vrabel purposely had his contract with Cleveland end Week 17 so that he would be a free agent before other potential candidates. Will see if I can find source...
This feels overly harsh for an owner who has hired 3 head coaches in his tenure, 1 of whom was a failure, 1 of whom was the greatest HC in NFL history, and 1 of whom is in the "Hall of Very Good HCs" in Pete Carroll.
I don't know the right way to run a HC search, and obviously everything about the Mayo hiring was a disaster, but it's not like RKK's record here is constant chaos and mistakes.
I dont think company CEOs are that different; companies and their boards should have some ideas of the important players in the industry and who could be potential CEO candidates (as well as who might be available internally if there were internal candidates).
They also are only interviewing 4. They made 5 requests; Glenn turned them down. Four interviews where two are clearly not candidates seems quite light especially when you arent really doing some level of initially screening with guys. Put that together with a report that they're open to being blown away; this doesnt feel like a search, but rather going through the motions. If they had done five legitimate interviews, I dont think anyone is really discussing this. but theyre quite a ways from that.
I dont see how you can say this is a standard NFL process when basically every team in this cycle and hte past cycle has had a much more robust process. The Jets and Tannenbaum consultant might be too much to the other end of the spectrum, but this "process" is pretty clearly on the absolute opposite end of the spectrum from the Jets, not the middle.
They brought in 4 candidates, 2 of whom nobody seriously thinks they would have unless required by the league. So 2 candidates... which is likely not a reasonable number.
Bit also... this is not at all what most NFL coaching searches look like.
In 2023 no team interviewed fewer than 8 candidates most over 10
In 2022 no team interviewed fewer than 6 candidates most over 8
In 2021 no team interviewed fewer than 6 candidates most over 10
In 2020 the Cowboys did this (also the Snyders did no interviews)
Rooney Rule wasn't instituted until 2003, so the Parcells and Belichick hires are a different era.
You're right, though, that if Vrabel and Johnson have let it know they want the job (and not just interested in talking about it) that certainly could curtail their search process.
Looks like our posts crossed, but completely agree. This "search" or "process" or whatever you want to call is what it is, but it aint anywhere near NFL standard searches; its at the absolute end of a spectrum.
That said, this seems to be who Kraft (identify coach and then design a process) is so we shouldn't be surprised. Regardless of results, its a shit process.
We have no idea because the rules were significantly different 25-30 years ago and nobody announced who they interviewed (also tampering was far more rampant). But also... lots of things in the NFL were different 25-30 years ago and generally owners were far less profession and good at their jobs.
I think this is the last HC that Bob Kraft will hire. He’s 83. He doesn't want to fuck around with a rebuild anymore. He squandered his age 79-83 years on this already. Time is running out for RKK. In his mind, screw process and searching for whiz kids. It’s Vrabel or bust.
I hate "open to be blown away" only because it is potentially really disrespectful to Johnson. "Yeah, Ben is a very impressive guy and gave a great interview... but we weren't blown away so we went in another direction."
As per usual, it's always best to issue bland platitudes ("lots of exciting possibilities and we're mounting a thoughtful and reasoned search to evaluate all the candidates") and just let it go at that.
As per usual, it's always best to issue bland platitudes ("lots of exciting possibilities and we're mounting a thoughtful and reasoned search to evaluate all the candidates") and just let it go at that.
He has hired one coach in the last 24 years. It was a year ago and he couldn’t have gone about it in a worse way. I don’t see why am 84 year old deserves credit for a 25 year old decision after how he handled the Mayo hiring.
Jets just complied with Rooney rule in a rather strange way. Could be for a coordinator. Any outside chance Vrabel thinks Pats are going with Johnson. Being in compliance means the Jets could hire him any time if Pats pass.
I think we disagree as to the value of bringing in a few candidates for interviews whom ownership has no intention of hiring, or whom they realize they probably won’t get.
I mean, not to suggest the Jaguars are a model franchise, but how many of these guys are really in the mix for that job? How many of them do you wish the Pats had interviewed?
View: https://twitter.com/Jaguars/status/1876665925145158116
I thought the Pats did five interviews rather than four. That’s thin, especially when at least one of those was purely a Rooney Rule move. (I think Hamilton has an interesting background, and is the kind of unheralded guy I like to see on the Pats’ slate; obviously I don’t want Leftwich.) But if Flores was on the list instead of Leftwich, I’d consider the process adequate.
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Jan 8
Opinion | Has Mike Vrabel already failed as Patriots head coach? by Felger & Mazz
This made me laugh.
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