The HC Search

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Myt1

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This is silly. If you can’t have a conversation about expected low ends of expected value, just call no man happy until he is dead. You’re comparing apples and cats: the floor of single-season performance, with the ceiling of talent. Just be consistent.
 

tims4wins

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Individual season floor is not the same thing as overall coaching floor. Every coach in the league is capable of having a 4 win season and getting fired. No argument. But a guy like BB or Reid is not going to fail like that for a long enough span to get fired immediately after taking a job, vs. a Mayo or Tomsula or whatever.
 

Myt1

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Individual season floor is not the same thing as overall coaching floor. Every coach in the league is capable of having a 4 win season and getting fired. No argument. But a guy like BB or Reid is not going to fail like that for a long enough span to get fired immediately after taking a job, vs. a Mayo or Tomsula or whatever.
The issue is that the guy wants to redefine commonly understood framing in discussions of alternatives to eliminate arguments in favor of what people think is a more experienced, safer pick in favor of the less experienced, perhaps higher upside swing for the fences, instead of just engaging in the dispute over preferences on its own terms. Because “elite scheme design,” is the prerequisite, and, lo and behold, it’s the one thing his preferred guy has.
 

Cellar-Door

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Floor is failure, and degrees of really bad don't really matter, floors is a dumb discussion for a coach anyway, what you really want to gauge is... Expected median outcome and reasonable ceiling, because any guy who ends up at his flooring is getting fired in 2 years anyway.

Now I think you can make a case that Vrabel has the higher expectedly median outcome, in fact I said that earlier in the thread, and it's a good argument for him... But I push back on the argument that he has a high floor because people use it incorrectly to say that "well at least there isn't a chance it's really bad".. Because there is a chance, in fact a good one that it will be really bad for both coaches, the roster is garbage, the operation is outdated, the ownership is suspect... The most likely outcome is is that it is bad... Maybe really bad.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I don't get an argument for a higher floor, whatever that means (there is obviously no actual floor for any candidate). The Pats aren't risk managing - they are trying to get back to contention/win more superbowls. They want to hire the person who gives them the best shot to do that. The person who *ensures*, say, at least six wins doesn't do much for me but YRMV.
 

Mystic Merlin

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If they’re willing to spend, I don’t see any reason why Vrabel couldn’t nab a talented OC. And I share the concern over OC churn under a HC that doesn’t call offensive plays, in which case I think McDaniels is an optimal choice because he ain’t getting another HC job. And if he doesn’t want back into coaching (he has made plenty of cash, after all), then you may just have to live with the risk of a less established playcaller getting a HC job in 2-3 years. That would also be a good problem to have because it would likely mean the team is good again, and certainly relative to where they are now.
 

tims4wins

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If they’re willing to spend, I don’t see any reason why Vrabel couldn’t nab a talented OC. And I share the concern over OC churn under a HC that doesn’t call offensive plays, in which case I think McDaniels is an optimal choice because he ain’t getting another HC job. And if he doesn’t want back into coaching (he has made plenty of cash, after all), then you may just have to live with the risk of a less established playcaller getting a HC job in 2-3 years. That would also be a good problem to have because it would likely mean the team is good again, and certainly relative to where they are now.
Plus by that point, in theory Maye would be developed. Brady had plenty of success under multiple OCs. Ditto Mahomes.
 

Remagellan

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Besides his success at Detroit, the strongest evidence that Ben Johnson might succeed is that he’s taken his time to make himself available for taking the next step, which indicates he has a good sense of his limitations and has given some thought to how he might address/cover them.

As for Vrabel, if he’s just the guy who lost his job at Tennessee, that would be both a disappointment and a surprise. Because it would mean he gave no reflection on what caused him to fail at Tennessee and how he might do better at his next stop. I doubt that is the case.
 

8slim

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He'll design the scheme, call the plays, design Maye's development plan be in the QB meetings and do weekly gameplan meetings with Maye. That's a huge impact on development.
How many former OCs took on the schematic and play calling responsibilities from day one of their first HC gig? I honestly don't know. My gut tells me that can be a recipe for a new HC taking on way too much, but if there are lots of examples of it working then clearly I'm wrong.
 

cshea

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Really? I think McDaniels was a tremendous OC here. I'd take him back in a heartbeat.
He rather seamlessly pivoted from Brady to Cam Newton to Mac Jones in consecutive seasons. 3 very different offenses with very different QB's. I'd also have no problem with bringing him back. There's also the added benefit that his HC days are over so he wouldn't be a flight risk.
 

Cellar-Door

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How many former OCs took on the schematic and play calling responsibilities from day one of their first HC gig? I honestly don't know. My gut tells me that can be a recipe for a new HC taking on way too much, but if there are lots of examples of it working then clearly I'm wrong.
Off the top of my head I'm pretty sure all of these...McVay, LaFleur, McDaniel, O'Connell, Reid, Taylor? Probably missing some

Edit I think the usual path is to start very involved then maybe shift stuff later. It probably helps guys settle in to have control of the stuff they are most confident in, and builds trust from players who see them in control and excelling
 
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Dogman

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He rather seamlessly pivoted from Brady to Cam Newton to Mac Jones in consecutive seasons. 3 very different offenses with very different QB's. I'd also have no problem with bringing him back. There's also the added benefit that his HC days are over so he wouldn't be a flight risk.
I don't quite remember the terms of his canning by the Raiders but I think he was being paid for 3 more years and if he took a coaching position, any remaining monies were forfeit?
 

Cellar-Door

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So maybe McDaniels is one of those psycho always gotta work guys... But otherwise, what is his incentive to come coach on a bad team for free with no path to HC, working with a coach he never worked for, and for owners who are on frosty terms with his close friend and mentor?
 

Justthetippett

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So maybe McDaniels is one of those psycho always gotta work guys... But otherwise, what is his incentive to come coach on a bad team for free with no path to HC, working with a coach he never worked for, and for owners who are on frosty terms with his close friend and mentor?
1) Maye
2) Boredom
3) Redemption

But I kind of agree it's more fan gossip than reality.
 

sezwho

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1) Maye
2) Boredom
3) Redemption

But I kind of agree it's more fan gossip than reality.
I think he definitely takes the job for exactly those reasons. I don’t think I want him to get the offer, but the idea he wouldn’t crawl over broken glass to get back into limelight seems very improbable.
 

Jungleland

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I assume most of these guys are wired wanting to win and recognize there’s ways to do that and be credited for it outside of being a head coach. NFL OC is a legitimate aspirational job and I was under the impression he’s fond of the organization, not only Bill and TB. Maybe he loves retirement, but it would surprise me more if he wouldn’t be interested in it, to be honest.
 

Eddie Jurak

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If Vrabel is the guy, I would not necessarily mind Josh McDaniels as OC. I think he's a proven effective OC, and he's been able to find some success with a worse QB than Maye.

However...
  • I don't like the idea of ownership foisting an OC on Vrabel or whomever they hire as HC.
  • Does McD mean going back to Erhardt/Perkins instead of West Coast? That would feel like a step in the wrong direction.
  • I can't imagine people are beating down AVP's door to hire him. Would he stay on as QB coach? If Maye likes him that might make sense.
 

jsinger121

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They had Breer on Zolak and Bertrand today and a caller made a great point that if Vrabel is the choice he should look at current OC's from teams where the head coaches call the plays and some of the names mentioned were Mike LaFleur (Rams OC), Wes Phillips (Vikings OC), Josh McCown (Vikings QB coach). McCown is someone I would have big interest in for helping to turn around Darnold along with coaching Drake Maye in High School. I'd also look at Klint Kubiak as well.
 

Myt1

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Floor is failure, and degrees of really bad don't really matter, floors is a dumb discussion for a coach anyway, what you really want to gauge is... Expected median outcome and reasonable ceiling, because any guy who ends up at his flooring is getting fired in 2 years anyway.

Now I think you can make a case that Vrabel has the higher expectedly median outcome, in fact I said that earlier in the thread, and it's a good argument for him... But I push back on the argument that he has a high floor because people use it incorrectly to say that "well at least there isn't a chance it's really bad".. Because there is a chance, in fact a good one that it will be really bad for both coaches, the roster is garbage, the operation is outdated, the ownership is suspect... The most likely outcome is is that it is bad... Maybe really bad.
Cool. Hugs. ;)
 

Justthetippett

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They had Breer on Zolak and Bertrand today and a caller made a great point that if Vrabel is the choice he should look at current OC's from teams where the head coaches call the plays and some of the names mentioned were Mike LaFleur (Rams OC), Wes Phillips (Vikings OC), Josh McCown (Vikings QB coach). McCown is someone I would have big interest in for helping to turn around Darnold along with coaching Drake Maye in High School. I'd also look at Klint Kubiak as well.
I had forgotten that about McCown. That's interesting. Presumably Vrabel is familiar with LaFleur.
 

CoolPapaLaSchelle

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They had Breer on Zolak and Bertrand today and a caller made a great point that if Vrabel is the choice he should look at current OC's from teams where the head coaches call the plays and some of the names mentioned were Mike LaFleur (Rams OC), Wes Phillips (Vikings OC), Josh McCown (Vikings QB coach). McCown is someone I would have big interest in for helping to turn around Darnold along with coaching Drake Maye in High School. I'd also look at Klint Kubiak as well.

Lazar and Barth's podcast made the assertion that these are still considered lateral moves and are subject to veto by the current team. Seems like a flaw in the system, for sure.
 

jsinger121

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I had forgotten that about McCown. That's interesting. Presumably Vrabel is familiar with LaFleur.
Another coach they could target is Wes Welker as the receivers/passing game coordinator. He coached with Vrabel in Houston and obviously played with him as well.
 

jsinger121

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Lazar and Barth's podcast made the assertion that these are still considered lateral moves and are subject to veto by the current team. Seems like a flaw in the system, for sure.
McCown clearly isn't though as Minnesota I don't think could block him.
 

jsinger121

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Lazar and Barth's podcast made the assertion that these are still considered lateral moves and are subject to veto by the current team. Seems like a flaw in the system, for sure.
Vrabel did it with Matt LaFleur as he was the OC with the Rams at the time so McVay did let him make that move.
 

Helmet Head

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Not that it matters but i think McDaniel's is still local and wouldn't be shocked if he has maintained a relationship with Kraft. McDaniel's family stayed here while he coached the Raiders because they didn't want to uproot the kids from school given their age.
 

Cellar-Door

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Vrabel did it with Matt LaFleur as he was the OC with the Rams at the time so McVay did let him make that move.
Problem with it of course is those guys are usually just playcalling away from HC gigs so they often get sniped after 1 good year like LaFleur did.
 

jsinger121

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Problem with it of course is those guys are usually just playcalling away from HC gigs so they often get sniped after 1 good year like LaFleur did.
Maybe you back stop that with someone like McDaniels as an assistant head coach/senior offensive coach in case you lose that guy.
 

Al Zarilla

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I thought Fairbanks got caught interviewing for a college gig on the eve of the Pats' playoff game? The story I absorbed as a wee lad was that Fairbanks was abandoning the team. Granted, there was neither an internet nor a Sons of Babe Parilli back then to give me the straight dope but wasn't Fairbanks the bad guy in this?
I think Fairbanks announced he was leaving a week or two before their playoff game. Pats had had a very good season, 11 and 5, and were favored over Houston but got creamed 31 to 14, at home. Lame duck coach caused? The other thing I remember about Fairbanks is that he or his offensive coordinator put in quarterback option plays for Jim Plunkett, who wasn’t known as a running QB, earlier In Plunkett’s career. He finally got injured on one of those plays trying to run around right end. Later in his career with the Raiders, Jim won 2 Super Bowls, probably not running except for his life or on quarterback sneaks.
 
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catomatic

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I think Fairbanks announced he was leaving a week or two before their playoff game. Pats had had a very good season, 11 and 5, and were favored over Houston but got creamed 31 to 14, at home. Lame duck coach caused? The other thing I remember about Fairbanks is that he or his offensive coordinator put in quarterback option plays for Jim Plunkett, who wasn’t known as a running QB, earlier In Plunkett’s career. He finally got injured on one of those plays trying to run around right end. Later in his career with the Raiders, Jim won 2 Super Bowls, probably not running except for his life or on quarterback sneaks.
I remember Plunkett's departure as nothing short of a tragic event.
Both Fairbanks interpretations could coexist but do you have a specific memory of Fairbanks having been given cause to jump ship? Or was Sullivan family hijinks/incompetence presumably enough on its own?

EDIT; to add, my vague recollection is that it was either SMU or Colorado.
 

Saints Rest

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My recollection is that Fairbanks announced he was leaving at end of year to take a job at SMU. Sullivan fired him and replaced him with Ron Erhardt (then OC) for playoff game.
Team got run over, both literally and figuratively, by Earl Campbell and the Oilers
 

Al Zarilla

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I remember Plunkett's departure as nothing short of a tragic event.
Both Fairbanks interpretations could coexist but do you have a specific memory of Fairbanks having been given cause to jump ship? Or was Sullivan family hijinks/incompetence presumably enough on its own?

EDIT; to add, my vague recollection is that it was either SMU or Colorado.
He went to coach at the university of Colorado.

My recollection is that Fairbanks announced he was leaving at end of year to take a job at SMU. Sullivan fired him and replaced him with Ron Erhardt (then OC) for playoff game.
Team got run over, both literally and figuratively, by Earl Campbell and the Oilers
Sounds right. Earl Campbell could run over you, no doubt. That was a really, really promising season though, like 1976, which also ended terribly (Ben Dreith).
 

BigJimEd

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Fairbanks was suspended for final regular season game but coached in the playoffs

The Patriots made the playoffs in their fourth season under Fairbanks in 1976 and two years later were on their way to their first outright AFC East title when owner Billy Sullivan angrily suspended him for the final regular-season game because he had agreed to go to Colorado. Fairbanks returned for the playoffs, but New England lost to Houston. He was 0-2 in the playoffs with New England.
 

Gash Prex

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I’m sure there is a reason - but why do teams announce they completed interviews with HC? Like the pat’s just did with Vrabel

Glenn declined to interview. My guess is that he didn’t appreciate certain aspects to the search - as hinted at by Breer
 
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RedOctober3829

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I’m sure there is a reason - but why do teams announce they completed interviews with HC? Like the pat’s just did with Vrabel

Glenn declined to interview. My guess is that he didn’t appreciate certain aspects to the search - as hinted at by Breer
I don't believe that's the reason. Glenn already has 5 HC interviews this weekend and the Pats put a late request in.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't believe that's the reason. Glenn already has 5 HC interviews this weekend and the Pats put a late request in.
I think he probably assumes that the late request indicates a lack of real interest. I doubt it he just decided to not to take an interview for one of the most attractive jobs in because it came a couple hours after the Raiders request.
 

E5 Yaz

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I’m not sure what your suggestion is here - Glenn declined. The pat’s didn’t cancel
Not going to speak for Commander Shears, but Glenn might have seen his addition to the list as an attempt by the Krafts to deflect criticism after the Leftwich/Hamilton interviews and/or he's heard through the grapevine that everything else is a formality and Vrabel's going to be the coach
 

Justthetippett

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Hmmm...seems like Glenn probably knows (through his own network or his agent...) that it is down to Vrabel or Johnson and he's going to not waste his limited time. I'm just happy this isn't a Rooney rule sham thing. He was/is a good candidate.
 

Dogman

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Not going to speak for Commander Shears, but Glenn might have seen his addition to the list as an attempt by the Krafts to deflect criticism after the Leftwich/Hamilton interviews and/or he's heard through the grapevine that everything else is a formality and Vrabel's going to be the coach
That and with Kraft acknowledging fan reaction to Mayo's tenure played a small part in his decision to fire Mayo, Kraft may be listening to the fan reactions out there that the search is following a similar path to the Mayo hire.

I don't think these paths are similar in that at least there are interviews this time, just that there are fans believing that is the case.
 

Remagellan

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I’m not sure what your suggestion is here - Glenn declined. The pat’s didn’t cancel
That could mean he’s heard that Vrabel is the guy and does not want to waste his time. Or it could mean he might go to the Jets and does not want to share intel. Or it could mean that he doesn’t see NE as an attractive destination. Your guess is as good as mine.
 

sezwho

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Hmmm...seems like Glenn probably knows (through his own network or his agent...) that it is down to Vrabel or Johnson and he's going to not waste his limited time. I'm just happy this isn't a Rooney rule sham thing. He was/is a good candidate.
My guess is he didn’t want his name associated with the sham. He didn’t complete the requirement, but he was added late in response to media blowback about the sham. (Edit - what @E5 Yaz and Dogman said sooner)

Also @Remagellan ’s point is right of course. Speaking for myself I certainly know Jack Shit.
 
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jsinger121

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I don't blame Glenn for declining. The request came late to begin with plus he has 5 other interviews lined up. He also has a better chance to get the Saints or Jets job than he does with New England.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't blame Glenn for declining. The request came late to begin with plus he has 5 other interviews lined up. He also has a better chance to get the Saints or Jets job than he does with New England.
Whether it was a response to getting thoroughly ripped on TV, or a late change of heart... being added last minute and only you (so not an indication of a decision to do the kind of wide 7-10+ interview process most teams do) is probably enough by itself to make you think you don't have much chance. Add in the drumbeat that Vrabel is the guy from basically every media source (either it's done or... heavy favorite has been basically everywhere both local and national) and why waste your time, focus on the jobs you have a real chance to get.
 

E5 Yaz

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One possibility on the Boston piece here: Owner Robert Kraft lives in Chestnut Hill, and perhaps having Mike Vrabel at his home as part of the interview adds more of a personal dynamic to it.

***
I wonder whether Leftwich and Hamilton visited Kraft at his home
 

jsinger121

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One possibility on the Boston piece here: Owner Robert Kraft lives in Chestnut Hill, and perhaps having Mike Vrabel at his home as part of the interview adds more of a personal dynamic to it.

***
I wonder whether Leftwich and Hamilton visited Kraft at his home
They probably interviewed those two at the Logan Airport hotel.
 
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