The Goalie Thread

The Long Tater

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So is there a controversy? After tonight, do you give Doby the start on Friday against the Pens? Who is your number one right now?
 

veritas

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Disclaimer, I said their biggest need in the offseason was backup goalie so wtf do I know. I think they should ride him while he's hot, even if it lasts a few weeks. I think there's enough evidence to say Tuukka is most likely the better goalie still, but goalies are a magical thing.

I don't see a lot of downside to essentially making Tuukka the backup for now. Either Khudobin is Tim Thomas 2.0, or he wins some games during this streak while Tuukka figures things out and Tuukka is not worn down when the playoffs start. I'm not worried about a crisis of confidence with him, he's dealt with this all before
 

Dummy Hoy

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I’ll have more to say a story this thread develops, but thanks for starting this. I hope this stays an intelligent discussion.
 

cshea

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I’d start Khudobin tomorrow. He is playing too well to take him out. That said I don’t want Rask to go too long without a start. Only way to get him back to the level of play we’re accustomed to seeing from his is to get him some work. Sunday against the struggling Oilers may be a good spot for him.

I feel like this has happened a few times recently with the Rangers and Lundqvist. Hank struggles, they give Raanta (when they had him) the net for a week or two when he’s hot, then Hank comes back. Seems to work for them. Hopefully the B’s get similar results.
 

FL4WL3SS

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I'd ride Khudobin as long as possible. It's probably unlikely they'll get another run like this from him this season (or ever). Let Rask spell him every once in a while and then it'll eventually work itself out.
 

TSC

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4 straight wins for KhudoWIN.

If EGA (earned goals allowed) was a thing, he would have thrown up a 2.00 today, as that Crosby goal was pretty bullshit.

Keep riding the hot hand, hopefully this sparks Tuukka when he eventually gets back in.
 

The Long Tater

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Khudobin is currently third in the league in both gaa and save percentage. Crazy.
 

TFP

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Want to revisit this one after last night. Some unassorted thoughts in the interest of discussion:
  • Thank god for that 3rd period last night, otherwise I was trending real down on Tuukka. That 2nd period was really bad with the goal then the timidity on the Johnson rush.
  • It's fact that Khudobin has been a better goalie this year than Tuukka. Both the stats and the eye test support that.
  • It's my opinion that this team won't go far if Tuukka isn't on his game, so they certainly can't ride Khudobin for too long at Tuukka's expense.
  • We now can have a more reasonable workload split, and let this sort itself out over the season, which to me is a good thing.
  • There will be a conversation to have about Tuukka's future...in the offseason.
  • I'd come back to Khudobin on Saturday.
 

cshea

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Agreed on all accounts. Khudobin Saturday, I don’t want him getting cold from a layoff between appearances.

Hopefully we can look back at the pad save on Kucherov at the end of the 2nd as a turning night point for Rask.
 

Salem's Lot

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They should alternate games for as long as possible. Best case scenario is a rested Tuukka in April. That worked out rather well in 2013.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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This might not be anything, but it's interesting that Khudobin's stats took a noticable turn for the better once Cassidy was hired, which I believe came with a commitment to getting him regular work:

6-1-0 .922% 2.21 GAA for 2016-17 once Cassidy came on board
7-0-2 .932% 2.22 GAA for 2017-18 so far.

Now, part of this is because Dobby didn't play well in the first part of 2016/17, and then he got hurt to boot and spent some time in Providence getting back into game shape. So Julien might not have had much reason to play him. But Julien was fired on Feb. 7, and Cassidy brought on board, and Dobby got the start on Feb. 11. And then he got regular work through the rest of the season. So maybe there's something to his use under Cassidy which helped him get off to this hot start.
 

The Long Tater

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There is a lot to like about how this team is playing and where it is going. Goaltending is a real strength.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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It's a great rebound for Tuukka, but we're very fortunate to have Khudobin play so well in the early part of the year when Rask was struggling a bit. Kept us in the playoff picture and really steadied the ship.
 

TFP

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It's a great rebound for Tuukka, but we're very fortunate to have Khudobin play so well in the early part of the year when Rask was struggling a bit. Kept us in the playoff picture and really steadied the ship.
I’ll forever say he saved their season. If he doesn’t hold the fort on that west coast trip, this season easily could have gotten away from them.

Want to see Khudobin to continue to get starts as we move forward to keep him sharp and keep Tuukka rested (assuming Khudobin continues to play well).
 

TheYaz67

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Agreed - looks like he will get a game this weekend, since they have a back-to-back against Carolina and Pittsburgh and Rask will have started the last 3 in a row going into the weekend (assuming he starts tomorrow against FL). Then the have that bizarre week long break, but starting on Jan 13 they play 9 games over the following 19 days, so likely Khudobin gets 2 or 3 of those starts one would think....
 

joe dokes

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I’ll forever say he saved their season. If he doesn’t hold the fort on that west coast trip, this season easily could have gotten away from them.
No doubt. And gutsy move by the coach. Rask wasn't playing well, but there aren't many coaches that would rest the clear #1 AND keep him on the bench while riding the #2's hot streak.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I really like the rotation choice of having Dobby get the Canes game and saving Rask for the Penguins. Dobby gets to face (and beat) this old team and the red-hot Rask gets a very good Penguins team. It's probably the obvious move, but I'm not sure Claude had enough faith in his backups over the last couple of years to do something like this.
 

MiracleOfO2704

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I really like the rotation choice of having Dobby get the Canes game and saving Rask for the Penguins. Dobby gets to face (and beat) this old team and the red-hot Rask gets a very good Penguins team. It's probably the obvious move, but I'm not sure Claude had enough faith in his backups over the last couple of years to do something like this.
I think this is where the dangling act Claude had to pull off after Chiarelli’s firing potentially comes into play. Svedberg/Khudobin/AHL call-up would come into a game cold, having only seen practice shots for two weeks at a time, be mentally unprepared for game speed, and stumble in a start, which the coach couldn’t afford in order to keep his job, which meant more Rask than Rask can handle, which aided late-season collapses. If he feels totally safe in 2015-16 and his half of 2016-17, he might have been willing to let them ride out of their struggles a little more. After all, Subban’s been serviceable in Vegas this year. That wasn’t totally out of nowhere.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Cool chart. Wouldn't a percentage ranking make more sense for them than a gross number? For instance, John Gibson has half the expected goals that Carey Price has, if you doubled that his Saves Above Expected would move him well up the list

Holtby would still be first from this list, but Bishop would be second.
 

FL4WL3SS

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Cool chart. Wouldn't a percentage ranking make more sense for them than a gross number? For instance, John Gibson has half the expected goals that Carey Price has, if you doubled that his Saves Above Expected would move him well up the list

Holtby would still be first from this list, but Bishop would be second.
This was my initial gut reaction as well.

Pretty neat though.
 

veritas

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Agreed, neat chart. A few thoughts:

1) I think xG isn't yet ideal for judging goalies because it can miss specific systems that help/hurt goalies. Until we get positional player tracking, this is going to be a problem. It's much more useful to judge offenses because these issues essentially get averaged out. My gut feeling is that Holtby, Tuukka, and Quick probably get a bump due to this. Guys like Hank and Frederic probably get hurt. Anaheim is such a dumpster fire, who knows about Gibson. But really there's no way to know.

2) I think a lot of people forget how dominant Cory Schneider was at his peak. He's on this list despite being god awful for a few years due to some sort of chronic hip issue.

3) Tuukka. Hall of famer? Discuss.
 

TFP

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If the Bruins had won one more game last year Tuukka becomes a lock HOFer. Despite that I think he still gets in, assuming another 3-4 years of elite play and a couple more good playoff runs.

Goalies are so hard to evaluate for the HOF.
 

cshea

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I don’t think Rask gets in at the moment. It is not necessarily his fault, but the problem, in my opinion, is that there a quite a few current era goalies with similar statistical profiles. I’m not sure he has done enough to separate from that group just yet.

Rask has a .921 career save percentage in 518 career games. He has 1 Vezina. Won a Cup as a backup, has made 2 playoff runs as a starter. .927 career playoff save percentage in 89 games. Internationally as a pro, 1 Olympics appearance winning bronze (.937 in 7 games). Here’s how he stacks up against some peers:

Henrik Lundqvist: 878 games, .920 save percentage. 1 Vezina, 4 other nominations. .922 save percentage in 128 playoff games.1 finals appearance, 3 conference finals appearances. He has an extensive international resume, 51 games (as a pro, not including WJC), .917. Won Olympic Gold in 2006 and Silver in 2014. Has a World Championship Gold and 2 Silver’s to his resume as well. Biggest knock on Hank is no Cup.

Carey Price- 654 games, .918. 1 Hart, 1 Vezina with 1 additional nomination. Very little postseason success, .914 career in 60 appearances, only 1 conference finals appearance as a starter. Never been to a Cup. Won Olympic Gold in 2014. Price has the best year among probably all the goalies, the 14/15 Hart campaign, but he falls flat elsewhere. Montreal bias will be in his favor though.

Roberto Luongo- 1044 career games, .919. Never won a Vezina, 2 nominations. .916 in 70 playoff games. 1 Cup run, we know how that went. 2 Olympic Golds, 1 as a starter. 2 more WC gold medal’s.

Pekka Rinne- Rask inevitably gets compared to Rinne because they are both big Finnish goalies. Rinne’s career is 644 games, .918 save percentage. 1 Vezina, 2 other nominations. 89 career playoff games, .914 save percentage. 1 Cup run. Rinne hasn’t played in an Olympics.

Marc-Andre Fleury- .913 career, 824 games. No Vezina nominations. .911 in 142(!) career playoff games. Been a part of 5 Stanley Cup runs, 3.5 as a starter, with 1.5 Cups (counting the last one in Pittsburgh where he played 15 games but none in the Finals as a .5). His career has always been peaks and valley, the bulk of his case resides in his playoff work.

A few other- Jonathan Quick. I wasn’t going to include him, but his numbers aren’t as bad as I thought they were. .913 career save percentage which has really been torpedo’d the past 2 years with an .888 and .893. 2 Cups and a Conn Smythe to his name, .922 career postseason save percentage in 85 games. I think Corey Crawford falls in the same boat. .917 in 468 games. No individual hardware but 2 Cups and .919 in 87 playoff games

That is a quick look at some of Rask’s peers. I think it becomes tough for Rask (and all of them, really) because they all have very similar statistical profiles. It’s kinda like if they let 1 in, they all have to get in. Of that group I think Lundqvist is a lock, and Luongo is pretty close to a lock. Rask does have a save percentage edge on all of them, but may come up a bit short in the hardware department. It also doesn’t help that most of his own media hates him and thus half the fan base can’t wait until he’s gone.