The Game Goat Thread: Week 13 vs Buffalo

[Buck Showalter]

All of the culprits have already been mentioned in this thread, I'll just say the thing that stands out to me week to week now is that this is a stupid, sloppy team that makes stupid mistakes that they aren't good enough to overcome. How the fuck do you get a delay of game penalty on a punt when you are backed up in your own end? Penalties, turnovers, clock management, lack of situational awareness. It is like they morphed into the bizarro Patriots somehow.

Maybe they have a bunch of dumb players or something? It seems ridiculous that Bill somehow forgot how to coach a team to be focused on these details. Or maybe he's spread too thin now, or maybe Brady was as responsible for that aspect of the team as Bill (though that seems unlikely, particularly on defense)? I don't know. It is jarring to watch after watching them let the other team beat themselves for the better part of the last 20 years.

This...

One stalworth of the past 20 years is that the mental / coaching aspect on our side was already worth 3 points coming into any contest.

Like all of you, I've watched NFL teams trip all over themselves when it comes to special teams, clock management, on-field discipline and I'd always say to the television, "this doesn't happen in New England".

Well guess what? It's happening in New England.

But let's face it; BB didn't forget how to coach. He remains the best on the planet.

You want to argue that he's spread too thin, needs new / better assistants, should share the personnel decisions? Have at it.

But any forecast - for what needs to be done - going forward is with BB at the center of that universe IMO.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1598528219103211520?s=20&t=iU2DAr0dxpwr4e7rgQN5dg

 

[EricFeczko]

That very first 3rd and a foot play was one of the most un-Patriot plays I’ve seen in 20 years.

It looked like Mac forgot what the play was in real time and just thrust the ball at Rham in a panic. Brutal. Such a tone-setting play for the game.

In fact that's exactly what happened -- he also struggled with communications in the 2 minute drill at the end of the 1st-half too. Question asked is at 6:17 in the video below:

https://www.patriots.com/video/mac-jones-12-1-hats-off-to-the-bills-for-playing-a-good-game

 

[EricFeczko]

View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1598528219103211520?s=20&t=iU2DAr0dxpwr4e7rgQN5dg

Yeah, blaming the defense when they held the Bills under their average for points scored is kind of ridiculous.

As @SMU_Sox excellently abstracted, the offense was bad, even taking into account the excellent Bills D (which was injured going into the game).

 

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

Biggest moments of the game for me were:

- When the Pats got the fumble turnover, they just mismanaged the clock so badly there at the end of the half. Presented with a great chance to make it a one score game, they really failed there, and Folk missed a 48-yarder.

I agree about the clock mismanagement, but I think it was an absolute disaster from a play calling sense. For the life of me, I can't understand keeping it on the ground for two straight plays. If third down was always going to be a sneak, throw the ball on second. A sack could happen, and that would have necessitated a time out and made a FG attempt really improbable, but you can't coach based on worst case outcomes. An incompletion saves a timeout. A completion to the sideline saves a timeout. A completion in the middle of the field could save time by simply not having to pull a bunch of guys off the pile.

I really think that the play selection as well as the time out utilization was equally horrendous

 

[Salva135]

But let's face it; BB didn't forget how to coach. He remains the best on the planet.

You want to argue that he's spread too thin, needs new / better assistants, should share the personnel decisions? Have at it.

But any forecast - for what needs to be done - going forward is with BB at the center of that universe IMO.

I know this is going to sound snarky, but can you point to something concrete that backs this up? Can you honestly that BB is the best-performing coach in the league right now? Like you, I always expected the coaching to be elite no matter what the talent level, but where is the +value coming from right now? The game planning? The clock management? The team discipline? In-game strategy? The Patriots right now are terrible at every one of these things, so where is this statement come from other than than the banal, "any other coach would be 3-9 right now?" I'm just trying to find something that this coaching staff is doing to be the "best on the planet."

They look like every stupid NFL team coached by every stupid NFL coach in the league.

 

[GB5]

With regard to the off-season and the OC position I worry that the defensive to criticism and stubborn head coach won’t turf the OC, because it would be an acknowledgment that he was wrong, and everyone else was correct for criticizing the hire. Any form of admitting a mistake is not in Bill’s playbook.

 

[j44thor]

View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1598528219103211520?s=20&t=iU2DAr0dxpwr4e7rgQN5dg

That is an empty stat when you take into account BUF had a season high in rushing att and the rushing yardage wasn't inflated by Allen who only went 8-20. I think the OF was much more the problem than the D but simply pointing to a stat about AY/P misses the entire context of the game.

 

[BaseballJones]

With regard to the off-season and the OC position I worry that the defensive to criticism and stubborn head coach won’t turf the OC, because it would be an acknowledgment that he was wrong, and everyone else was correct for criticizing the hire. Any form of admitting a mistake is not in Bill’s playbook.

Well, I mean, he moved on from Cam Newton pretty quickly to an unproven rookie. That seems like a pretty significant admission that he misjudged how good Newton could be.

 

[Toe Nash]

Yeah, the Bills ran 9 minutes off the clock with a 95-yard drive in the third quarter. They averaged 6.2 yards per play on that drive when it mattered and NE couldn't get them off the field. Their offense didn't do anything after that but it didn't matter. I don't think the defense played particularly well at all.

 

[brandonchristensen]

View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1598528219103211520?s=20&t=iU2DAr0dxpwr4e7rgQN5dg

Yeah - everyone keeps shitting on the D but they held them to 24 while getting zero breaks on their way to almost breaking the record for TOP.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

That is an empty stat when you take into account BUF had a season high in rushing att and the rushing yardage wasn't inflated by Allen who only went 8-20. I think the OF was much more the problem than the D but simply pointing to a stat about AY/P misses the entire context of the game.

The fact remains unsullied by any takes or spin. The Patriots defense held the Bills below their season average YPP.

What that means in the context of a loss is certainly open to interpretation but empty may be a bit much.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

With regard to the off-season and the OC position I worry that the defensive to criticism and stubborn head coach won’t turf the OC, because it would be an acknowledgment that he was wrong, and everyone else was correct for criticizing the hire. Any form of admitting a mistake is not in Bill’s playbook.

This is silly. He certainly wouldn't hold a press conference to do the full Mea Culpa You Were Right I Screwed Up thing, but you don't put together the sort of career BB has without some self-study and openness to changing what isn't working.

 

[BaseballJones]

As usual, it's a mixd bag, right?

On the positive:
- They held Buffalo below their average for points and yards. Buffalo came in averaging 28.1 points and 415.9 yards per game, and they "only" got 24 points and 355 yards vs. NE.
- They held Buffalo below their average for yards per play, which isn't meaningless.
- They got virtually NO help from their own offense, which couldn't do jack squat all game and on the one TD they scored, it was basically one huge play that lasted like 6 seconds. So the offense didn't do anything to provide support and give them rest.
- They actually got some stops against the Bills (3 punts and a fumble!), which is saying something given how the last two contests against them have gone.
- They held Buffalo to just 3.6 yards per rush.

On the negative:
- Buffalo, content to take what NE gave them (a lot of underneath stuff and runs), said ok thank you very much and picked up 22 first downs and held the ball for more than 38 minutes.
- Buffalo converted 9 of 15 third downs, to enable them to keep drives alive.
- By the time NE got their first stop, the score was already 17-7 Buffalo and the game already felt out of reach.
- It sure didn't feel like Buffalo had any trouble doing what they wanted. Whenever they really needed a play, they got it, and with the score 17-7 in the third quarter with the ball at their own 6 yard line, they ate up nearly 9 minutes, ran 15 plays, converted 3 third downs, and put the game away with a touchdown. When NE had them buried back there with a chance to get back in the game, Buffalo just methodically chewed them up and spit them out.


So the D's performance wasn't all bad, nor all good. It wasn't a terrible performance; neither was it great. I definitely got the sense that if they wanted to, Buffalo could have turned on the jets.

 

[BaseballJones]

This is silly. He certainly wouldn't hold a press conference to do the full Mea Culpa You Were Right I Screwed Up thing, but you don't put together the sort of career BB has without some self-study and openness to changing what isn't working.

I've mentioned in this forum that for a book I'm writing, I've been interviewing Slater. He has said that in his time with the team, Belichick has absolutely changed as a coach, that he's adapted as a person and as a coach and is definitely a different person than he was when he was a rookie. He says BB has his core principles but absolutely has adapted how he's done things over the years.

 

[8slim]

Relying on any single stat for a single football game to conclusively determine performance seems ludicrous to me. The sport is basically small sample size theater. There's so much randomness in any one game.

I do think that the D did enough to keep the Pats in the game during the first half. So in that sense they did a decent job. The O did them no favors, of course. And the second half was the Bills running clock since they knew the Pats O couldn't do anything remotely well.

 

[Hoya81]

Going with the Judge/Patricia combination has never made a lick of sense, especially when there were a number of ex-Pats offensive assistants that could have been brought in as de-facto OC (O'Brien, O'Shea, Godsey, Schuplinski etc)

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Man.... I actually thought Mac played decent the first half but fumbles and receivers clearly not being in the right spot and a shitty offensive line eventually conspired to kill any energy. The whole team looked broken after halftime. But back to Mac... seriously thought HE looked good in the first half. The rest of the team looked terrible on offense.

 

[EricFeczko]

Man.... I actually thought Mac played decent the first half but fumbles and receivers clearly not being in the right spot and a shitty offensive line eventually conspired to kill any energy. The whole team looked broken after halftime. But back to Mac... seriously thought HE looked good in the first half. The rest of the team looked terrible on offense.

He fumbled the ball in the first drive because he didn't know what play it was. He had a great second series, and then the OL shit the bed until the last possession of the half, where he struggled with the sidelined communication (which is on Patricia as much as Mac).

 

[Bowser]

I've mentioned in this forum that for a book I'm writing, I've been interviewing Slater. He has said that in his time with the team, Belichick has absolutely changed as a coach, that he's adapted as a person and as a coach and is definitely a different person than he was when he was a rookie.

Maybe this kinder, gentler version of BB isn't able to demand a fanatically high attention to detail from his players. Could be that's the fastball he's lost.

 

[BaseballJones]

Maybe this kinder, gentler version of BB isn't able to demand a fanatically high attention to detail from his players. Could be that's the fastball he's lost.

Possible. Who knows.

 

[brandonchristensen]

He fumbled the ball in the first drive because he didn't know what play it was. He had a great second series, and then the OL shit the bed until the last possession of the half, where he struggled with the sidelined communication (which is on Patricia as much as Mac).

His second series looked great because Marcus ran 40+ yards for an improbable TD.

If it is a 10-15 yard play, are we confident that Mac scores points on the drive? I think MAYBE he gets them to FG range.

 

[EricFeczko]

His second series looked great because Marcus ran 40+ yards for an improbable TD.

If it is a 10-15 yard play, are we confident that Mac scores points on the drive? I think MAYBE he gets them to FG range.

That play had great setup because the defense had to cover the other receivers -- because Mac Jones was hitting them.

We saw the same play later on and it fails because Mac's not dealing on the other drives.

 

[BaseballJones]

His second series looked great because Marcus ran 40+ yards for an improbable TD.

If it is a 10-15 yard play, are we confident that Mac scores points on the drive? I think MAYBE he gets them to FG range.

I'll just say this about that. How many times have players like Diggs or Jefferson or Tyreek or Adams or Metcalf or Barkley or (pick your elite skill position player) taken a short pass and turned it into a long touchdown? Happens all the time, seemingly every week around the league. And those plays always make the QBs performance look better. When Mahomes would hit Hill on a 7-yard slant and Hill turns it into a 65-yard TD, all those yards get credited to Mahomes too. In the butt fumble game, Brady hit Vereen on a swing pass out of the backfield and he sprinted 60 something yards for a TD. All that got added to Brady's stat sheet too.

So when the QB does a good job getting the ball in the right spot, on a good play call, to an elite athlete (and Marcus Jones qualifies as an elite athlete), that's a positive play made by both the QB and the playmaker. We should want Mac to get the ball to guys like Rhamondre, Jones, and Thornton as much as possible. Those are the guys that can break big plays and make the offense explosive.

 

[Zincman]

Might be easier to list the players that didn't play terribly.
Marcus Jones
Uche
Duggar
Rham maybe? never mind, forgot the fumbles.
Godchaux?
I guess Palardy was ok.

Godchaux was awful. He got washed out so many times and couldn't maintain gap control. He had a very bad game

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I'll just say this about that. How many times have players like Diggs or Jefferson or Tyreek or Adams or Metcalf or Barkley or (pick your elite skill position player) taken a short pass and turned it into a long touchdown? Happens all the time, seemingly every week around the league. And those plays always make the QBs performance look better. When Mahomes would hit Hill on a 7-yard slant and Hill turns it into a 65-yard TD, all those yards get credited to Mahomes too. In the butt fumble game, Brady hit Vereen on a swing pass out of the backfield and he sprinted 60 something yards for a TD. All that got added to Brady's stat sheet too.

So when the QB does a good job getting the ball in the right spot, on a good play call, to an elite athlete (and Marcus Jones qualifies as an elite athlete), that's a positive play made by both the QB and the playmaker. We should want Mac to get the ball to guys like Rhamondre, Jones, and Thornton as much as possible. Those are the guys that can break big plays and make the offense explosive.

Sure, but then they also back it up with other good plays.

 

[Marciano490]

I'll just say this about that. How many times have players like Diggs or Jefferson or Tyreek or Adams or Metcalf or Barkley or (pick your elite skill position player) taken a short pass and turned it into a long touchdown? Happens all the time, seemingly every week around the league. And those plays always make the QBs performance look better. When Mahomes would hit Hill on a 7-yard slant and Hill turns it into a 65-yard TD, all those yards get credited to Mahomes too. In the butt fumble game, Brady hit Vereen on a swing pass out of the backfield and he sprinted 60 something yards for a TD. All that got added to Brady's stat sheet too.

So when the QB does a good job getting the ball in the right spot, on a good play call, to an elite athlete (and Marcus Jones qualifies as an elite athlete), that's a positive play made by both the QB and the playmaker. We should want Mac to get the ball to guys like Rhamondre, Jones, and Thornton as much as possible. Those are the guys that can break big plays and make the offense explosive.

I don’t get the relevance. Those skill players you list can be counted on to do something game breaking at any given moment. We don’t have anyone like that. And the quarterbacks you mention shouldn’t be in the same breath as Mac.

I feel like you keep making these points you must know our facile in defense of Mac, but you don’t really believe Mahoney/Tua to Hill belongs in a conversation about Mac to Jones.

 

[BaseballJones]

Sure, but then they also back it up with other good plays.

Of course. My point is just that there's nothing at all wrong or deceiving about making a good, crisp, accurate short pass to an uber-athlete in a space where he can make a big play. Even though he does most of the work, it's perfectly fine for the QB to get credit for that too. Mac made a perfect throw on that play.

 

[scottyno]

What’s amazing about that play is that there wasn’t a flag for holding either on the offensive line or on the Bills’ secondary. Usually you scramble back and forth like that and SOMEONE gets caught holding.

I can't speak for the secondary, but it would have been hard for the O line to hold when they were standing there doing nothing while Mac ran for his life

 

[BaseballJones]

I don’t get the relevance. Those skill players you list can be counted on to do something game breaking at any given moment. We don’t have anyone like that. And the quarterbacks you mention shouldn’t be in the same breath as Mac.

I feel like you keep making these points you must know our facile in defense of Mac, but you don’t really believe Mahoney/Tua to Hill belongs in a conversation about Mac to Jones.

No, I'm not talking about comparing Mac to other QBs. I'm just pointing out that other quarterbacks also throw short passes to super athletic players, who go on to make big time explosive plays, and it's perfectly fine for them to do it. It's similarly perfectly fine for Mac to do it, and he gets no demerits for making a highly accurate throw to an elite athlete who goes on to make a big play. It was a nice play call, and a beautifully thrown ball to a player who then took that pass and made a great play out of it. Everyone involved in the play deserves some credit for that (including the play-caller). Mac included.

 

[brandonchristensen]

I'll just say this about that. How many times have players like Diggs or Jefferson or Tyreek or Adams or Metcalf or Barkley or (pick your elite skill position player) taken a short pass and turned it into a long touchdown? Happens all the time, seemingly every week around the league. And those plays always make the QBs performance look better. When Mahomes would hit Hill on a 7-yard slant and Hill turns it into a 65-yard TD, all those yards get credited to Mahomes too. In the butt fumble game, Brady hit Vereen on a swing pass out of the backfield and he sprinted 60 something yards for a TD. All that got added to Brady's stat sheet too.

So when the QB does a good job getting the ball in the right spot, on a good play call, to an elite athlete (and Marcus Jones qualifies as an elite athlete), that's a positive play made by both the QB and the playmaker. We should want Mac to get the ball to guys like Rhamondre, Jones, and Thornton as much as possible. Those are the guys that can break big plays and make the offense explosive.

No, I get it. I'm just saying that the first drive was a three and out. The third drive was a three and out. We had a couple of first downs in the second drive - but had that drive stalled out instead of the improbable TD pass, we wouldn't have thought it was that great of a drive. The vast-vast majority of his drives stalled out. I'd say Marcus was the one that made that drive special, not Mac.

 

[BaseballJones]

No, I get it. I'm just saying that the first drive was a three and out. The third drive was a three and out. We had a couple of first downs in the second drive - but had that drive stalled out instead of the improbable TD pass, we wouldn't have thought it was that great of a drive. The vast-vast majority of his drives stalled out. I'd say Marcus was the one that made that drive special, not Mac.

Yes for sure Marcus gets the majority of the credit. He made a great play. But that's what elite game-breaking athletes do. OBVIOUSLY guys like Mahomes and Allen are light years better than Mac, but they, too, have their stats boosted by great playmakers making great plays, turning short passes into long gains.

My takeaway from the past few weeks is that Marcus Jones need the ball in his hands more. The guy is a special talent on the football field. I don't know what they can draw up for him, but he's got incredible burst and elite top-end speed as well. He is a threat to take it to the house almost every time he touches it. The Patriots - especially with their otherwise plodding offense - need to get the ball into his and Thornton's hands much, much more. They're the two gamebreaking athletes this team has.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Yes for sure Marcus gets the majority of the credit. He made a great play. But that's what elite game-breaking athletes do. OBVIOUSLY guys like Mahomes and Allen are light years better than Mac, but they, too, have their stats boosted by great playmakers making great plays, turning short passes into long gains.

My takeaway from the past few weeks is that Marcus Jones need the ball in his hands more. The guy is a special talent on the football field. I don't know what they can draw up for him, but he's got incredible burst and elite top-end speed as well. He is a threat to take it to the house almost every time he touches it. The Patriots - especially with their otherwise plodding offense - need to get the ball into his and Thornton's hands much, much more. They're the two gamebreaking athletes this team has.

Yeah fully agree.

Can we please get back to ragging on Mac Jones?!?

 

[Toe Nash]

That play had great setup because the defense had to cover the other receivers -- because Mac Jones was hitting them.

We saw the same play later on and it fails because Mac's not dealing on the other drives.

I think it's because they adjusted and were watching out for that possibility, not because they didn't think Mac could hit a receiver. On the TD the safety moved late to cover Jones because the action was the other direction, there was no one behind him, and then he took a bad angle and Jones left him in the dust with one move. That's hard to replicate, otherwise you'd just throw screens to your fastest guys all the time.

 

[EricFeczko]

I think it's because they adjusted and were watching out for that possibility, not because they didn't think Mac could hit a receiver. On the TD the safety moved late to cover Jones because the action was the other direction, there was no one behind him, and then he took a bad angle and Jones left him in the dust with one move. That's hard to replicate, otherwise you'd just throw screens to your fastest guys all the time.

I agree, but that adjustment came on the read when Marcus Jones came in. Had other players caught the ball with Marcus Jones in, the safety may not make the same read.

Sequencing matters for offense -- I love the markov model approach to drives, a shame it was abandoned when Brian Burke went to ESPN.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think it's because they adjusted and were watching out for that possibility, not because they didn't think Mac could hit a receiver. On the TD the safety moved late to cover Jones because the action was the other direction, there was no one behind him, and then he took a bad angle and Jones left him in the dust with one move. That's hard to replicate, otherwise you'd just throw screens to your fastest guys all the time.

I think it was a little of both. They got caught and started watching for it, but also, they didn't really respect Mac's ability to throw deep after that drive. One key on that play is they gave the threat of an Agholor or Jones go route a lot of respect. Later in the game they didn't (we saw one later, to Thornton on the right, there was no help, Mac just heaved it nowhere near him), basically saying,,... we don't think you can/will make that throw. Part of the later could be that they didn't think the line would give him the time, but part of it was just not respecting his arm at all.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I think the defense played not better than the stats indicate but something like that. They just had some really bad miscues. But like vs the Vikings those miscues were costly. First drive: If WIlson sticks to his man on the 3rd and 11 it is a punt. Instead they get a FG. He completely abandons Hines in coverage. He has to stay disciplined there. Then on the next drive they should have held them to a punt again but on 3rd and 9 Jack Jones loses his footing and tackles Gabe Davis - flags fly and... Eventually they score here. 10 points on drives where you were so close to getting off the field. At the least the defense had their chances and misplayed them. You can come away thinking - the defense played well on a snap to snap basis but made too many critical errors and couldn't overcome them. But however you would think that maybe next time you would get more punts vs those results. Maybe? Jon Jones had some really bad plays. He couldn't handle Diggs for sure but he also gave up on that Allen scrambling TD pass. Sure, look if that's an incomplete they probably score anyway because there was a holding on that play so it would have been first and goal from the 1 yard line. Jon Jones is good against smaller guys but he can't be taking guys like Jefferson or Diggs alone in man. Bryant also had a couple mistakes where he needed to keep his rush lane defense and got pulled by distractions. They definitely had their moments. They kept forcing the Bills into 3rd downs but just unfortunately... you know.

But the offense was the opposite. The blocking from OL to TE, to WRs were awful. Mac didn't do himself any favors. Buffalo played like 11 yards with both their "deep" safeties the entire game. Pass protection couldn't hold up at all. When guys were open Mac either missed them or he was pressured and he is not good vs pressure. The blocking for everything is bad. Painfully bad. They fuck up everything. The end of the half issues well... The draw play should have easily had the first down before the half but Connor McDermott completely whiffs on the linebacker who goes straight to the backfield and Rham. Had he just been able to seal off the LB Rham has a lot of room and could have possibly broken off a big one.

Mac had some really bad plays too. The third and 1 fumble on drive one - that's a dead drive on Mac! 2) On the near-safety play it was a variation of slant/flat to that side. Might have been slant/swing? Well on that play he has to either hit the slant right away in a tight window or get it to the RB but no matter what his two OTs are cut blocking so he HAS to get it out. He doesn't. He hesitates. And then he somehow doesn't take a safety. He missed a wide open Meyers on a crosser. The near interception was terrible too. Mac is not good when he's off his spot. He's painfully limited.

I came away feeling frustrated but optimistic about the defense. They made a lot of good plays. I came away feeling frustration and pessimism about the offense. The line is a mess. The play calling is bad but they can't execute anything well. I don't see how Bill doesn't make huge changes this off-season in that department. He might not fire Matty P but perhaps a real OC and play-caller can come in.