The Game Ball: Wk. 13 at Buffalo
- Thread starter SeoulSoxFan
- Start date
The Bills actually did adjust pretty well in the fourth quarter. The run blitz was effective in the end of the game. Patriots has -6 yards running in the fourth quarter with zero first downs while nursing a one score lead with the wind. It gave the Bills two long drive opportunities but the defense was stout and held the Bills to 0-2 in the red area, which was the ball game.
If McDermot tries the run blitz earlier who knows if we have an answer but it was a nice adjustment that gave his team a chance, just too little too late.
Interesting to note that the Pats really only ran 6 plays from scrimmage in anger (plus 2 kicks).
2 were the runs that were stuffed when the Bills made their adjustment to a run blitz, and this was where I disagreed most with the play calling, as I thought one of those should have been a pass play. On the 3rd down play, it was clear that the Pats went conservative just to get Folk whatever additional yards they could give him.
On the 2nd drive, they got stuffed for a run again, and then Mac threw his 2nd and 3rd passes of the game. The screen seemed close to breaking for a bigger play, but did not get a chance to see any replay, so going by memory there.
Take away that unfortunate gunshot, and Mrs. Lincoln had a wonderful night at the theater.
Exactly. Bill shares. Bill expounds on long snappers and weather and all sorts of shit, but not in the heat of the moment. Small talk is nice, but nothing that risks the goal of winning. Nothing. If that means vanilla press conference answers 99% of the time, tough shit. That's the game.
I wonder how many times they would have thrown if 2021 Tom Brady was at quarterback.
This is one of those games that we'll be talking about for a long, long time. Glad I'll be able to say I watched it.
This is one of those games that we'll be talking about for a long, long time. Glad I'll be able to say I watched it.
The Bills do probably win the game if they make the FG which was "only" 33 yards.
Says a lot about what N'Keal Harry has become for the run game that when he blew the return last night I honestly felt bad for him more than angry. Actively rooting for him to have a breakout receiving game one of these weeks, he wouldn't be the first player to wind up valuable for the Pats after complete disappointment in his initial seasons.
I enjoy those more than the typical BB conferences too.
However, I felt they should have gave canned answers, especially to an obviously obnoxious question. Now that clip & the McDermott one have gone viral and every other outlet is using them to push the "Pats/BB are in their heads" or "their locker room is now a mess" narratives.
I think that matters because the Bills players & coaches have to leave last night's game behind and start to focus on the Bucs. And I'm positive they're not as good as the Pats in blocking such outside noises.
He's almost as good as Gronk was in that role.
Harry screwed up on the punt but you have to also put just at least a little bit of that on the coaches. That was a bizarre formation and not necessary. Putting a player not used to that role in that condition is not entirely a path to allowing him to succeed. Yes, he screwed up and needs to do his job. But that was a really tough spot.
As a fan, watching the game on TV, I think it was difficult to truly see the effects of the wind. Apart from a few occasions during punts, kicks and the hat blowing off the ref and disappearing off the screen in microseconds, it would be easy, as a fan, to say the Pats should have thrown it more. We weren't out there. We couldn't see what the staff is seeing and feeling. When Jonnu had that amazing catch, the coaches may have seen that as a potential turnover. When they see the ball trailing off to the side when Allen throws, with his very strong arm, would they then look at Mac and say, "No way are we allowing him to do that"? This was a masterful piece of coaching, both with the X's and O's and with prepping the team and have them all buy into an unusual game-plan. Everyone on the team did their job and did it well. I'll even give Harry a pass (no pun intended) as we can't see what that ball was doing when in the air. He could have thought he was 10 feet away from the ball before it suddenly changed direction in the air and took an unlucky bounce that barely touched his face-mask. Apart from the Harry issue, the team was as mistake free as you can get in a game. One small (additional?) mistake in this game and it could have been a different result.
If there was ever a game where everyone on the team and the coaching staff, gets a game ball, this would be the game.
If there was ever a game where everyone on the team and the coaching staff, gets a game ball, this would be the game.
Re: the bolded - it looked like Josh had a negative reaction right after the play for whatever reason. Ball was in the air way too long and he didn't like it, or something like that.
I'll add McDaniels. With the limitations his playcalling was good. We talked about the dropped pitch that may have been a long TD given how badly we caught BUF cheating inside, but didn't notice this live:
View: https://twitter.com/MarkSchofield/status/1468227408625127429
If the wind doesn't take that ball to Jonnu forcing him to make an incredible catch, and it instead hits him in stride... he has 20 yards easy, and a 1v1 with the safety for a TD.
View: https://twitter.com/MarkSchofield/status/1468227408625127429
If the wind doesn't take that ball to Jonnu forcing him to make an incredible catch, and it instead hits him in stride... he has 20 yards easy, and a 1v1 with the safety for a TD.
If you look at the tape on that play, the design was absolutely perfect and with a good ball under normal conditions the play goes for 20-25 yards at least as the deep safety (who started on the opposite hash) is the only guy who can make a play. It was also a throw that Mac makes in his sleep under normal conditions so to see that ball sail that badly had to be eye opening.
Basically they needed a perfect play design, perfect route execution, and an amazing catch to gain seven yards.
I did not! And I would make that trade-off again. My wife was quite surly, and announced (for probably the fourth time) as we walked back to our car that she is never going to a Bills-Patriots game again.
We were sitting above the end zone where Harris ran for his score, and it was glorious when he cut back and you could immediately see there were no Bills who were going to be able to stop him. I started yelling “touchdown” when Harris was still at the NE 40, much to the ire of everyone around me.
Does anyone know how Mac looked during the warm-up period? I saw him complete a short pass in a Twitter video. He looked fine against TN and that was a cold blustery day. It was just a real tense 4th quarter and they made the plays and had some luck on their side (the missed field goal). We have to enjoy how well prepared this team is.
It’s worth noting the difficulty in the passing game isn’t just on the quarterback in those conditions. Bills receivers had a number of drops because tracking the ball was difficult. Even if you get a guy open and have a well thrown ball it’s not a guarantee they will come down with it in that wind.
I hate Wickersham, but this is an interesting take
View: https://twitter.com/SethWickersham/status/1468254937284968449
View: https://twitter.com/SethWickersham/status/1468254937284968449
When I woke up this morning I was trying to decide if this was the Wind Game or the Running Game.
One thing about the strategy is... we never trailed. Bill is a proponent of "don't beat yourself", so I'm not sure it mattered what QB he had, he was unlikely to chance the unpredictability of how the ball moved in that wind unless he had to. They opened it up with 2 straight passes in the 4th likely because they saw it as a chance to go for the kill on "easy" pass plays.
Buffalo threw more because they:
1. Couldn't run as well.
2. Were trailing.
If we catch either of the 2 potential pick 6 throws that went sailing in the wind.. all the discussion would be... "Why did BUF throw it when they couldn't know where the ball would go".
If Mac throws a ball that gets picked because the wind sails it, the same question would come up.
We had no real reason to throw, so Bill didn't. If he'd needed to throw, he would have. And if we had Josh Allen... we probably still wouldn't have thrown much (but would have run more designed QB runs than BUF did).
Buffalo threw more because they:
1. Couldn't run as well.
2. Were trailing.
If we catch either of the 2 potential pick 6 throws that went sailing in the wind.. all the discussion would be... "Why did BUF throw it when they couldn't know where the ball would go".
If Mac throws a ball that gets picked because the wind sails it, the same question would come up.
We had no real reason to throw, so Bill didn't. If he'd needed to throw, he would have. And if we had Josh Allen... we probably still wouldn't have thrown much (but would have run more designed QB runs than BUF did).
Yeah, if anything, Buffalo caught several breaks (Harry's muff, terrible personal foul call) that handed them some points and made the game closer than it might have been, and the Pats still won without throwing passes. The running strategy was smart, it worked, and there was no reason to throw any more. I didn't see it at first, but it's very clear now.
He looked fine throwing 10-12 yard warmup tosses during TV timeouts and other breaks in the action. I think Bill just decided that he wasn’t going to pass much unless the game situation and score required him to do so.
If you don't subscribe to Boston Sports Journal, you should now just to read Bedard's delightful evisceration of McDermott that he posted this morning.
As for the name of this game... Can we please not associate anything Patriots with the show Friends? That show was hackneyed garbage.
Folk mentioned his range on one end of the field was from within the 10 yard line. Does anyone remember hearing this kind of range before from a kicker? I sure don't. I was wondering if this is the worst wind game they played in and I think it might be but my memory isn't always great. Was it worse in retrospect than the 2008 8 pass Cassel one?
I agree with CellarDoor that it is mostly about the risk profile on offsense, and while a part of that is Mac most of it is general risk. Sure, if he had Tom Brady he'd have thrown more because of the literally unmatched reliability and judgment. But I don't take it is much of any indictment of Jones (especially as a rookie) that Bill just thought the conditions didn't fit passing as a primary plan.
Bills OC is Brian Daboll. While I have no idea what BB thinks of him, he has hired him twice and presumably recommended him to Saban as well so I think it's not all that likely he has some highly negative view. I guess you never know. I certainly think his defensive game plan suggested that he believes Allen beats you outside contain and on broken plays and not otherwise, and last night he was correct about that.
I’m not sure I agree with the take. BB thought highly enough of Daboll to bring him back after he left with Mangini and I doubt Saban would have hired him without BB putting in a good word. His work with Allen has been impressive.
I've seen a lot of games at Foxboro, hundreds and hundreds of them, and the wind can whip through that stadium as hard as any stadium I've ever been to...
In fact, as of 2015, Gillette was the windiest stadium in the NFL, with an average wind speed of over 13mph. At this point, there have been so many bad weather games, some with not just wind, but also a LOT of rain, that they kind of blend together.
https://www.esquire.com/sports/g2491/nfl-severe-weather-stats/
I generally agree with this take, though would probably phrase it a bit differently and not quite as negatively toward the Bills.
Bill makes tough decisions that he thinks give his team the best chance to win the game and he does so unapologetically and without second guessing himself ever. At least that's my perception. Sometimes it is difficult when it doesn't work out like when Folk hit the upright in the Dallas game. When it does work out -- like not calling time out against Seattle -- it is absolutely glorious.
But the luxury of being a Patriots fan right now is that we have a coach that gets to make these decisions entirely on their merits and based on his incredible coaching skills and acumen. He simply is far to secure in his place in history to have to ever worry about what anyone thinks about his decisions, if he ever gave a shit.
I think once the Patriots got the TD and the 2 point conversion and took the lead and Bill knew he was probably going to be able to ensure they had the wind in their favor in the fourth quarter, he made a simple decision. For so long as they were ahead he was going to trust his defense in bad conditions and to believe in a game plan and situational play that put the Bills offense at a greater chance of making a game deciding mistake than the Patriots offense. And if they beat the Bills on another big run, great.
And that's how they played it. I thought it was a real high wire act and could have gone either way and it almost did. If there was one thing that made the approach risky I thought it was the fact that Allen is really good running the ball and that giving him a position where he had to go on fourth down could be very challenging for the defense. And it was. But these hard decisions that Belichick has to make against very good opponents in very difficult positions are never 80/20 decisions.
Agree with all you guys that Wickersham’s take was far too negative toward Buffalo and that he more accurately should have said throwing wasn’t really worth the risk. I especially agree with this quoted piece - once they had the lead, they had no need to throw. If the punt and the Bryant penalty don’t happen they might not have thrown again.
There's only one regular season game I can recall in the Belichick era that meets its measure as a total team effort on the road in brutally cold and windy weather, and that's @BAL in 2007. Certainly much higher scoring than last night, but it was an intense effort. View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtYb3NVGQN8
Funnily, as Buff deferred their decision to start the game, they could have opted to kick defend an end-zone to start the second half, giving them the wind in the 4th Q.
with the added bonus of the Buffalo perspective of same game as “pissing into the wind” (autocorrect from passing into the wind).
It's not like that play was an accident. There were a few other plays that were one broken tackle from monster yards and/or taking it to the house, including the one where Harris came up gimpy with the hamstring. When you give yourself a bunch of chances to break a big one, some of them usually pan out.
I actually thought they might, and I think I may have actually made a comment to that effect in the game thread but in the end I think they made the right decision.
They were losing the game and there is nothing magic about the fourth quarter as opposed to the third quarter. Points count the same. Getting the extra possession was big. If you get the ball to start the third quarter then you have to assume you're going to get at least three possessions with the wind. I don't think that it would have been a good decision for the Bills to pass that opportunity up while playing from behind.
This is why I thought the Patriots long drive in the third quarter turned out to be so important and basically the game. You just don't anticipate that a team is going to keep the ball for 9 minutes going against the wind. The field goal was big but keeping the Bills from having another possession going with the wind was also huge. That sneak on third down setting up fourth and manageable was enormous and I think it's one of the reasons that McDermott challenged on the next play, because he knew how big it was to have the Patriots be able to keep the ball long enough to flip the field.
I was surprised that McDermott didn't call TOs late in the 3rd quarter, honestly. If he was just going to waste them on dumb challenges and routine red zone playcalls, he may as well have used them to try and keep the Pats facing the wind so a FG wouldn't be an option.
I believe you were responding to me in the game thread on this. I think the Bills made a mistake in deferring and not choosing which goal to defend.
Agreed. And maybe it was your comment in the GT that brought it to mind. Everything blurs at this time of post-win bliss. Giving away a possession in a one score game would be eviscerated if it didn't result in a win. I remember the initial collective gasp in 2013 when BB chose the wind in OT against Paymetons, but that worked out. In 2002 against the Jests, it didn't work out.
On the last five games point about the defense... the last five games the Pats have allowed:
36 points (7.2 per game)
1,207 yards (241.4 per game)
75 first downs (15.0 per game)
and have 13 takeaways (2.6 per game)
They are now ranked #1 in points allowed and #3 in yards allowed.
36 points (7.2 per game)
1,207 yards (241.4 per game)
75 first downs (15.0 per game)
and have 13 takeaways (2.6 per game)
They are now ranked #1 in points allowed and #3 in yards allowed.
