In a 9-7 scenario I think the loss you want is the Rams not the Bills. That would give them an 8-4 conference record, with head to head tiebreakers over Miami, Vegas and Baltimore. That said, I think the Patriots likely need to run the table. Remaining Schedules:
5. Cleveland...8-3...@ Titans, Ravens, @ Giants, @ Jets, Steelers
6. Miami- 7-4...Bengals, Chiefs, Patriots, @ Raiders, @ Bills
7. Indy...7-4...@ Texans, @ Raiders, Texans, @ Steelers, Jaguars
8. Baltimore...6-4...@ Steelers, Cowboys, @ Browns, Jaguars, Giants, Bengals
9. Vegas...6-5...@ Jets, Colts, Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos
10. New England...5-6...@ Chargers, @ Rams, @ Dolphins, Bills, Jets
They all have reasonable pats to 9/10 wins. Miani has the most challenging remaining schedule. Baltimore is a bit of an unkown with the covid situation, but that could also hurt the Patriots. If the Ravens have a game canceled, then the head to head tiebreaker goes out the window and also Baltimore could be losing their toughest remaining game.I don't think much of the Browns, maybe they turn into a pumpkin, but they are 3 games ahead and have banked 8 wins already so getting to 10/11 doesn't seem too difficult. Vegas was a hair away from beating KC for the second time this season and followed it up by getting roasted by the Falcons so who knows with them.
The Patriots don't appear to be a team about to embark on a 5-0, 4-1 run. Excluding the San Fran game, they are 5-5 with a +1 point differential. I think that's pretty much who they are. They'll likely be in all the remaining games, but they are more likely to break even than pile up wins. My guess is they go 3-2 and finish at 8-8.