The future of Red Sox Catching

Rasputin · Mar 5, 2014

ivanvamp said:
Vazquez' defensive ability may make him ready to go as soon as 2015. Swihart is further behind. Could the Sox go with Ross and Pierzynski this year, and then Vazquez and another veteran (re-sign Pierzynski?) in 2015, with the idea being Vazquez and Swihart starting in 2016? And what of Lavarnway?

I thought the fact that they didn't want any catchers on more than a one year deal made it obvious this is Plan A. The AL only got a .708 OPS from the position in 2013 so it's not like Vazquez has to be any kind of offensive force to be an asset. Be average at the plate and above average behind it, and I think we're good, especially considering we're going to be getting better than average offense from the two other weakest offensive positions.

And really, that arm, holy mother of juice boxes. I saw--or more likely heard--some of the more sensible observers of the game talking about Yadier Molina and they looked at how many steal attempts there were on average, and compared them to the Cards as a whole and concluded that just by being back there, he prevented about a third of all stolen base attempts. I don't know that we can expect Vazquez to do that, especially early in his career, but he's going to stop a lot of would-be basestealers from even making the attempt.

Corsi · Mar 5, 2014

In case anyone missed this from the other day:

PaulinMyrBch · Mar 5, 2014

I got the pitcher 1.1 and the catcher 1.73. Billy Hamilton doesn't make it to second with that combo, he's 3.0 to 3.1 from first move to second.

Rasputin · Mar 5, 2014

PaulinMyrBch said:
I got the pitcher 1.1 and the catcher 1.73. Billy Hamilton doesn't make it to second with that combo, he's 3.0 to 3.1 from first move to second.

One of the things that I hope comes from the new treasure trove of data is a player by player look at how large a lead they have to have to make a steal attempt have a positive EV. And then I want to factor in catchers. I think it's going to be fascinating.

Also, I can't wait until Vazquez is with the big club.

DanoooME · Mar 5, 2014

It's going to be Ross and AJ this year unless there's an injury. Then they both get to go as FAs again.

I think they think Butler is a future Ross. If he could put those numbers above up in the majors, he'll have a dozen years as a backup catcher.

Vazquez probably gets his shot in 2015. While it wouldn't be a clean platoon with Butler since they both bat right handed, it isn't necessary to have to have guys that bat on opposite sides, especially when you'll be paying them a little over $1M combined for 2015 (and 2016 and 2017 for that matter).

Then you figure out what to do from there with Swihart depending on how Vazquez and Butler perform over the next two years.

The only thing that may create a problem with having two rookie catchers is having a veteran pitching staff around, although Peavy will likely be gone after this year, Lackey after next, leaving 2 spots open for the young guys Butler and Vazquez have been catching all along.

curly2 · Mar 5, 2014

PaulinMyrBch said:
I got the pitcher 1.1 and the catcher 1.73. Billy Hamilton doesn't make it to second with that combo, he's 3.0 to 3.1 from first move to second.

The Sox play at Cincinnati in August. Obviously I don't wish injury to Ross or Pierzynski, but it would be interesting to see Hamilton vs. Vazquez in that series.

PaulinMyrBch · Mar 5, 2014

Who was that running? Either he had a monster lead or he's nearly Hamilton speed. 3.03 first move to bag.

absintheofmalaise · Mar 5, 2014

PaulinMyrBch said:
Who was that running? Either he had a monster lead or he's nearly Hamilton speed. 3.03 first move to bag.

Looks like #80 is NRI Jermaine Mitchell. CF. He was rated the fastest baserunner in the Oakland system in 2006, 2007 and 2011.

Savin Hillbilly · Mar 5, 2014

Jermaine Mitchell. 29-year-old NRI. Definitely a speed guy--consistent 20+ SB seasons in minors, a couple of double-figure triples seasons.

nattysez · Mar 5, 2014

DanoooME said:
It's going to be Ross and AJ this year unless there's an injury. Then they both get to go as FAs again.

Given that they are both over 35, the likelihood of this is pretty high. The question is who gets the first shot to come up when one of them goes on the DL. My guess is that they bring up Lavarnway to ensure that the younger guys can keep playing every day in the minors.

Corsi · Mar 5, 2014

bosockboy · Mar 5, 2014

Just wow.

OttoC · Mar 5, 2014

Rasputin said:
One of the things that I hope comes from the new treasure trove of data is a player by player look at how large a lead they have to have to make a steal attempt have a positive EV. And then I want to factor in catchers. I think it's going to be fascinating.

Also, I can't wait until Vazquez is with the big club.

Hasn't it been determined that pitchers contribute most to stolen bases? If the catcher is 1.73 but the pitcher is also 1.73, it doesn't take Billy Hamilton to steal second. It also takes the throw being "on the money." if the SS/2B has to reach to the third base side for the throw or takes it around his eyes, that adds time to the tag. I'm not arguing against Vazquez; I'm just saying that the whole picture needs to be looked at.

Just a bit outside · Mar 5, 2014

OttoC said:
Hasn't it been determined that pitchers contribute most to stolen bases? If the catcher is 1.73 but the pitcher is also 1.73, it doesn't take Billy Hamilton to steal second. It also takes the throw being "on the money." if the SS/2B has to reach to the third base side for the throw or takes it around his eyes, that adds time to the tag. I'm not arguing against Vazquez; I'm just saying that the whole picture needs to be looked at.

The pitcher needs to be quick to home but each tenth of a second matters. If Vasquez is 2 tenths below the major league average then the pitchers don't need to be as fast or slide step to make up for a slower catcher. Two tenths is about a six foot difference for the runner.

ookami7m · Mar 5, 2014

Jesus,

He was out by like 8 feet.

Average Reds · Mar 5, 2014

Corsi said:

Not that I have any interest in promoting fairness over celebrating the prowess of our catching prospects, but that looks like a botched hit and run.

Savin Hillbilly · Mar 5, 2014

Average Reds said:
Not that I have any interest in promoting fairness over celebrating the prowess of our catching prospects, but that looks like a botched hit and run.

Also, Scruggs is a 26-year-old 1B/LF type who does not appear to be unduly afflicted with speed, and he certainly doesn't look fast to me on this play. No question Vazquez has a cannon, but I'm not sure that throw beats a good runner.

absintheofmalaise · Mar 5, 2014

Average Reds said:
Not that I have any interest in promoting fairness over celebrating the prowess of our catching prospects, but that looks like a botched hit and run.

Savin beat me to it. Should I rename this thread the Christian Vazquez Sploogefest?

PaulinMyrBch · Mar 5, 2014

On the pop and pitcher times. Use these numbers as a base of understanding.

Good with a slide step is around 1.1
Good without a slide step is around 1.3
Add a few tenths to get average, add a few more to get bad.

Good game pop for a catcher is around 1.9
Worse than average pop time for a catcher is north of 2.1

A game pop of 1.7 is approaching the limits of what is humanly possible. It's not extremely rare, even for non-Yadier catchers, but if you've got a catcher back there capable of 1.7's and the first base coach times the pitcher to the plate in the 1.1 range, he looks at the the runner and says get a good secondary, but you're not going anywhere.

For what its worth. Mo did not use a slide step, was 1.52 to the plate. Posada was 1.77 to second and Roberts was 3.25 from first move to the bag. If Mo slide steps we don't win the World Series. Note that Posada made a really good throw, late in the game, but had a favorable pitch because it was up and away.

PaulinMyrBch · Mar 5, 2014

Average Reds said:
Not that I have any interest in promoting fairness over celebrating the prowess of our catching prospects, but that looks like a botched hit and run.

Absolutely, the swing and the runner looking for the ball nearly all the way to second is a dead giveaway. Kid has serious pop to second though. He's legit.

Jer · Mar 7, 2014

PaulinMyrBch said:
On the pop and pitcher times. Use these numbers as a base of understanding.

Good with a slide step is around 1.1
Good without a slide step is around 1.3
Add a few tenths to get average, add a few more to get bad.

Good game pop for a catcher is around 1.9
Worse than average pop time for a catcher is north of 2.1

A game pop of 1.7 is approaching the limits of what is humanly possible. It's not extremely rare, even for non-Yadier catchers, but if you've got a catcher back there capable of 1.7's and the first base coach times the pitcher to the plate in the 1.1 range, he looks at the the runner and says get a good secondary, but you're not going anywhere.

For what its worth. Mo did not use a slide step, was 1.52 to the plate. Posada was 1.77 to second and Roberts was 3.25 from first move to the bag. If Mo slide steps we don't win the World Series. Note that Posada made a really good throw, late in the game, but had a favorable pitch because it was up and away.

Where did you find these times? Is there a comprehensive database? It'd be interesting to dig into.

absintheofmalaise · Mar 7, 2014

I don't know if this is where he got his info, but here is an article by John Dewan on Bill James Online about pop times.

The average pop time for catchers is just under two seconds. Some examples of the best are Matt Wieters, Russell Martin, Salvador Perez and Yadier Molina. They have average pop times of 1.9 seconds or better. Those four catchers have combined to throw out more than 30 percent of potential basestealers since 2011. In contrast, John Baker, Devin Mesoraco, John Jaso, and Yasmani Grandal have average pop times greater than 2.0 seconds, and they have combined to throw out only 15 percent of attempted basestealers since 2011.
The average delivery time for pitchers on stolen base attempts is 1.4 seconds. Some of the best pitchers in this category are Stephen Strasburg, Vance Worley and Johnny Cueto who average less than 1.3 seconds.

PaulinMyrBch · Mar 7, 2014

My son catches and I've stood in the first base box with a stopwatch a few times. I've got a pretty good handle on good/average/poor ranges for catcher pops and pitcher moves to home for his age range. I don't have as good a feel for times to second on first move for the runner because I never timed that (get a fast kid on, check the times and go from there). But I did some checking before I posted those times to get a feel for major league quality. I didn't see that Dewan article, but I did see look at these before posting.

The DVR makes it easy to play with this stuff from your couch.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-overrated-value-of-catchers-throwing-arms/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/stolen-base-attempts-an-algorithm-for-allocating-run-value/

Just a bit outside · Mar 7, 2014

Here is an article from Baseball America about Billy Hamilton with some pitcher and catcher times.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-pulse/2012/2613901.html

A catcher who is over 2 seconds is making it almost impossible to throw out a good base stealer. As does a pitcher who is taking 1.5 seconds to get the ball to home. It makes me think of the Red Sox teams with Varitek and all the stolen bases. He always seemed a a little slow on the pop time and I think they decided to stop even trying because they had very little chance of getting the runner.

If Vasquez can throw at 1.8-1.9 in game action that would be huge in stopping the running game.

PaulinMyrBch · Mar 7, 2014

You're right because we went a whole season without slide steps and Tek on sore knee and it was basically a green light.

Salty was usually around 1.9-2.0. This kid can take a dump mid throw and pop 1.9. They'll see sub 1.7 if they haven't already

Hank Scorpio · Mar 7, 2014

PaulinMyrBch said:
Salty was usually around 1.9-2.0. This kid can take a dump mid throw and pop 1.9. They'll see sub 1.7 if they haven't already

Salty wasn't exactly a sharpshooter when it came to throwing either. That makes a big difference.

Drek717 · Mar 8, 2014

ivanvamp said:
Each has tremendous upside. The question is when will they be ready for the majors? Vazquez' defensive ability may make him ready to go as soon as 2015. Swihart is further behind. Could the Sox go with Ross and Pierzynski this year, and then Vazquez and another veteran (re-sign Pierzynski?) in 2015, with the idea being Vazquez and Swihart starting in 2016? And what of Lavarnway?

I would bet that Butler and Lavarnway are in competition for the 2015 #2 catcher job behind Vazquez at this point. The Sox can see if Butler hits for a second consecutive year at AAA, if Lavarnway's defense at C is passable and if his power comes back, and then make a decision next winter with a lot more info in hand. If both of them are on the down turn they can pursue a veteran, but there's a good chance that one of the two will be a solid option.

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon · Mar 8, 2014

I saw Vazquez a bunch in Portland last year and can confirm the sploogefest is worthy, having seen his abilities from about 20 feet away on a fairly regular basis.

All of that pop time stuff is interesting as hell, but Vazquez is simply naked-eye awesome. He's as comfortable behind the plate as Johnny Weir in gold lamé. Just his throws to second to finish off warm-ups every inning are things of beauty.

Mike F · Mar 8, 2014

I'd like to add
If you like his throws to 2nd
Wait til you see his pickoff behind a LHH to 1st

Toe Nash · Mar 8, 2014

PaulinMyrBch said:
I got the pitcher 1.1 and the catcher 1.73. Billy Hamilton doesn't make it to second with that combo, he's 3.0 to 3.1 from first move to second.

Are we sure this gif is actual speed? It appears a bit sped-up but that could just be because it's choppier than video.

PaulinMyrBch · Mar 8, 2014

Toe Nash said:
Are we sure this gif is actual speed? It appears a bit sped-up but that could just be because it's choppier than video.

No. But I'd say it's pretty good chance it's live speed. 1.1 and 1.7 aren't off the charts ridiculous, and both of those pieces look like those times suggest they should be.

PaulinMyrBch · Mar 9, 2014

This is another good shoot for Vazquez.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfKTPjGTXmg

PrometheusWakefield · Mar 9, 2014

I was holding back on this until after I picked him in the RealFantasy draft, but now that's done I think that Christian Vazquez is the best catcher on the Red Sox and that he should start now.

Not only is Vazquez abilities as a thrower obvious from those videos, but he also rates as a superb pitch framer. BP has Vazquez ranked second in all of both AA and AAA last year in runs saved from pitch framing at -20.9 runs per game. And yes, success framing pitches in the minor league level is highly correlated to major league success.

If the pitch framing numbers are even close to accurate Vazquez is clearly the better catcher than AJP. Here's the Oliver projection (not counting pitch framing, projected out to an unrealistic 600 PA):

Vazquez 75 RC+ -20.1 offense, +22.6 defense, 2.4 WAR
AJP 84 RC+ -13.5 offense, +12.7 defense 2.1 WAR

Oliver already gives Vazquez the edge. Throw in 25 runs difference in pitch framing - +20 for Vazquez, -5 for AJP (whose last 2 years are -7.7 and -4.2) and Vazquez blows AJP out of the water.

Obviously, there are other factors at work than the numbers. I don't know much about how rushing Vazquez to the majors this year would impact his long term development, especially as a hitter. All I can see is the numbers. But it should be said that by the numbers Vazquez should be starting and its not especially close.

Sprowl · Mar 9, 2014

PrometheusWakefield said:
I was holding back on this until after I picked him in the RealFantasy draft, but now that's done I think that Christian Vazquez is the best catcher on the Red Sox and that he should start now.

Not only is Vazquez abilities as a thrower obvious from those videos, but he also rates as a superb pitch framer. BP has Vazquez ranked second in all of both AA and AAA last year in runs saved from pitch framing at -20.9 runs per game. And yes, success framing pitches in the minor league level is highly correlated to major league success.

I'm not sure that I agree about Vazquez starting now -- it reminds me of the Iggy debates about how good defense needs to be at a premium defensive position before a weak hitter is worth starting -- but I am very excited about the quantum leap that baseball has taken in evaluating catcher defense.

Just for the sake of caution, it's worth observing that the Red Sox minor league pitching staffs in both Portland and Pawtucket were uncommonly deep and skilled, and framing data are generated by both catching and pitching skill. Getting PitchFX into minor league ballparks should also generate a quantum leap in verification of scouts' judgments. I'd like to see the data on the other prospect catchers' defensive performance over the last few years: do the defensive-catcher-of-the-year votes reflect the data available on Swihart and Lavarnway?

Of course, I'd also like to see a thread titled Christian P*rn.

Rasputin · Mar 9, 2014

PrometheusWakefield said:
BP has Vazquez ranked second in all of both AA and AAA last year in runs saved from pitch framing at -20.9 runs per game.

This is wrong, right? It's -20.9 runs a season, right, because any metric that measures anything in double digit runs per game has to be wrong.

Sprowl said:
Of course, I'd also like to see a thread titled Christian P*rn.

There are web sites for hardcore evangelical Christians to talk about biblically acceptable sexual positions. I spent fifteen minutes there one time and I still show the scars.

PrometheusWakefield · Mar 10, 2014

Rasputin said:
This is wrong, right? It's -20.9 runs a season, right, because any metric that measures anything in double digit runs per game has to be wrong.

An 81-81 team that plays him at catcher will win every game they play by an average of 20 runs. What's so hard to believe about that?

(Yes, it's per season)

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Mar 10, 2014

Defense is obviously his calling card but I think people underrate Vasquez's potential with the bat. He has really good control of the strike zone and has certainly flashed power at times in his minor league career. There's at least potential to be an above average hitting catcher, not just a guy who hits just enough for his defense to carry him.

The Best Catch in 100 Years · Mar 10, 2014

PrometheusWakefield said:
I was holding back on this until after I picked him in the RealFantasy draft, but now that's done I think that Christian Vazquez is the best catcher on the Red Sox and that he should start now.

Not only is Vazquez abilities as a thrower obvious from those videos, but he also rates as a superb pitch framer. BP has Vazquez ranked second in all of both AA and AAA last year in runs saved from pitch framing at -20.9 runs per game. And yes, success framing pitches in the minor league level is highly correlated to major league success.

If the pitch framing numbers are even close to accurate Vazquez is clearly the better catcher than AJP. Here's the Oliver projection (not counting pitch framing, projected out to an unrealistic 600 PA):

Vazquez 75 RC+ -20.1 offense, +22.6 defense, 2.4 WAR
AJP 84 RC+ -13.5 offense, +12.7 defense 2.1 WAR

Oliver already gives Vazquez the edge. Throw in 25 runs difference in pitch framing - +20 for Vazquez, -5 for AJP (whose last 2 years are -7.7 and -4.2) and Vazquez blows AJP out of the water.

Obviously, there are other factors at work than the numbers. I don't know much about how rushing Vazquez to the majors this year would impact his long term development, especially as a hitter. All I can see is the numbers. But it should be said that by the numbers Vazquez should be starting and its not especially close.

It should be said that Oliver also projects Mookie Betts to put up a 5.0 WAR season next year. I would put no stock in what it has to say, particularly for guys with little to no experience above AA.

The future of Red Sox Catching

captain obvious

Will outlive SeanBerry

isn't shy about blowing his wad early

captain obvious

Don't touch his dog food

Will outlive SeanBerry

above replacement level

Member

Don't touch his dog food

too many flowers

loves the secret sauce

Member

isn't shy about blowing his wad early

Member

captain obvious

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

loves the secret sauce

too many flowers

Don't touch his dog food

Don't touch his dog food

New Member

too many flowers

Don't touch his dog food

Member

Don't touch his dog food

Member

Member

Member

Mayor of Fort Myers

Member

Don't touch his dog food

Don't touch his dog food

Member

mikey lowell of the sandbox

Will outlive SeanBerry

Member

Member

Member