The First Sixth of the Season is complete... how dey doin'?

[uk_sox_fan]

With last night's scrappy, if somewhat ugly, come-back win against the Rays the Sox salvaged the finale of the Series and picked up their ML best 20th win of the season. It's been a bit of a slip down from the heady days of 17-2 and with their uncouth rivals in the midst of a 9-game winning streak, the lily-livered among us might be losing some of that swagger that came with the historic start.

But the favourite argument of the nay-sayers during the winning streak was that it came against weak competition. Consider this: the record of Red Sox' opponents in their games against the rest of the league(s) currently stands at 309-270 (.534) or the equivalent of 86.5 - 75.5 over 162 games or 15-13 so far this year. The comparable figure for the Yankees is 305-289 (.513) or 83.2 - 78.8 or a bit over a game behind Boston's opponents so far this season.

Not only that but Boston's record is as good or better against the stronger teams it's played as the weaker. They have played a total of 8 games against teams with a <.500 record in their other games (2 x Mia 9-16, 3 x Bal 8-17, 3 x Oak 12-13) and posted a 6-2 record (.750). They've played 10 games against Tampa, winning 7, to post a .700 mark vs Tampa's 9-7 record (.563) against other opponents. And against NY (17-7 .708), Tor (14-10 .583) and LAA (16-9 .640) the Sox have gone 7-2 (.778) despite 6 of the 9 games being on the road.

So despite a bit of a setback this past week, the Sox past their 1st post (of 6) 3 1/2 games ahead of the pace they'd need for a 99-win season. I'll be making my pilgrimage over to see them on Wednesday with what will hopefully be another series win over the Royals. Interested to hear your thoughts.

 

[lapa]

I dont know, I think you just cant say, the season is long, what happens now is almost irrelevant. Even if you compare how they looked a couple of weeks ago to now. Injuries, form, luck, whatever. Obviously its a very nice start, projecting to a 120-42 season, I predict they might fall short of that haha.

Hope they dont rush Xander too much if he seems not quite 100%, like, whats the point in risking aggravating an injury?

Mookie looks great, the lineup has had its moments but Devers is still young and struggles laying off the high heat in particular. JBJ has to be an offensive worry. Why is Swihart not getting many chances? Nunez seems awful. Good to see if Pedroia will come back in any kind of decent nick. Starting pitching looks good, but until the back end of the season we wont know if "easing" in Sale and Price will pay dividends.

I still think, right now, we have a major bullpen problem which is not going to be good enough come playoff time. Dont know if Thornburg will be the answer, or if they can find someone on the market later on.

Theyre certainly fun to watch when the hitting is in sync!

 

[grimshaw]

I still think, right now, we have a major bullpen problem which is not going to be good enough come playoff time. Dont know if Thornburg will be the answer, or if they can find someone on the market later on.

I think "major" problem is overstating it. MLB ranks below.
ERA - 11th
FIP - 5th
xFIP - 6th
WAR - 3rd
HR/9 - 5th
WPA - 4th
K/9 - 13th

They could use a fireman for sure, but this has been a very solid pen so far.

 

[The Filthy One]

They're 20-7 having played 3 more road games than home games. That includes a West Coast trip. That's without their starting 2B, their starting SS missing for half those games, etc. for And outside of Betts and maybe Holt, I wouldn't say anyone is playing significantly better than expected. If anything, there's been some underperformance from the lineup. In short, I'm pretty happy with where they are at.

Can they maintain this level of play? It seems like it will come down to health, as it often does.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I think you have to add Bogaerts and Velazquez to the "outperformed expectations" column.

 

[E5 Yaz]

There are seven teams on a pace to lose 100 games this season (source: Passan, Yahoo) and, while all of them won't reach that number, it's possible that this season is either an outlier or the explosion of a trend toward the "win by losing" ethic seen in other sports.

Franchises have seen the Cubs and Astros turn this work in baseball as well. Of course, to say that the current tanking teams will win the World Series within 8 years is a fool's errand -- it depends on much more than just being in position to draft the best available players.

As to how this pertains to the Red Sox, I think it's impossible to judge how good or bad the best teams are ... because the worst teams are just worse than they've been in years. Healthy, the Sox will win between 95 and 110 games ... and they won't be alone in doing so.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think you have to add Bogaerts and Velazquez to the "outperformed expectations" column.

And probably Porcello too, depending on which version of him (2016 or 2017) you put more faith in showing up.

 

[lapa]

I think "major" problem is overstating it. MLB ranks below.
ERA - 11th
FIP - 5th
xFIP - 6th
WAR - 3rd
HR/9 - 5th
WPA - 4th
K/9 - 13th

They could use a fireman for sure, but this has been a very solid pen so far.

Oh I fully understand that the numbers look good right now, but that's not what I am saying. I just don't think they are that good, and in fact, I think they are considerably worse. Over the season I guess we will see, but I am not sure I trust ANYONE outside Kimbrel when I imagine a close game against the likes of NYY/HOU/CLE in the playoffs, I don't know, there just seems to be a lot of inconsistency/nibbling/"bad body language", I mean they themselves don't project a lot of confidence to me. I don't claim that its an opinion that should carry any weight, and as we can all see, numbers wise its working, but Kelly, Smith, Johnson, heck, even Barnes? I don't think they are good enough. I think time will tell and prove that an Andrew Miller type setupman/backup closer is something that would things look a lot steadier back there. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[sean1562]

I don’t have a ton of faith in our catching duo, but glad we have a series against the royals while the yanks go to Houston. I had high hopes for Carson but he looks to be a pretty fungible reliever at this point. Price just doesn’t seem like he is going to maintain a high level of play over a whole season

Love how porcello is playing and excited to see what erod can do this year.

 

[Rasputin]

Oh I fully understand that the numbers look good right now, but that's not what I am saying. I just don't think they are that good, and in fact, I think they are considerably worse. Over the season I guess we will see, but I am not sure I trust ANYONE outside Kimbrel when I imagine a close game against the likes of NYY/HOU/CLE in the playoffs, I don't know, there just seems to be a lot of inconsistency/nibbling/"bad body language", I mean they themselves don't project a lot of confidence to me. I don't claim that its an opinion that should carry any weight, and as we can all see, numbers wise its working, but Kelly, Smith, Johnson, heck, even Barnes? I don't think they are good enough. I think time will tell and prove that an Andrew Miller type setupman/backup closer is something that would things look a lot steadier back there. Hope I'm wrong.

Your expectations are unrealistic.

 

[AB in DC]

When I looked at Fangraphs the other day, the same three teams (BOS, NY, and HOU) were in the top four of the AL for hitting, starting pitching, and relief pitching. That's remarkable, and probably a direct results of the growing gap between teams competing and teams tanking for this year. At this point, any of those teams could see their performance drop off slightly and still be a strong favorite for a playoff berth.

 

[AB in DC]

Building on that point, here is BP's third-order win pct for the AL as of today:

HOU .731
BOS .692
NYY .676

seven teams between .447 and .531

five teams between .313 and .388

 

[grimshaw]

This next month will start to test their mettle. After the Rangers series and through June 3rd:

3 at the Toilet
6 vs the Jays
3 vs the A's.
3 more in TB
3 vs the Braves
4 at Houston

The only cookies are 4 vs the O's but there are only 2 off days over that span.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

I predict 19-11 over that span (538 has them at 17-13). Both of us have the Yankees at 18-12 (thru June 4) so I put the Sox 3 games in front and 538 has their lead down to 1.

FWIW (which is sadly very little) I have Boston go the following:
3-1 @ Tex
1-2 @ NYY
1-2 @ Tor
3-0 v Oak
3-1 v Bal
2-1 @ TB
2-1 v Atl
2-1 v Tor
2-2 @ Hou

 

[Rasputin]

I predict 19-11 over that span (538 has them at 17-13). Both of us have the Yankees at 18-12 (thru June 4) so I put the Sox 3 games in front and 538 has their lead down to 1.

FWIW (which is sadly very little) I have Boston go the following:
3-1 @ Tex
1-2 @ NYY
1-2 @ Tor
3-0 v Oak
3-1 v Bal
2-1 @ TB
2-1 v Atl
2-1 v Tor
2-2 @ Hou

I didn't know Manila was in the UK.

This is a good team. It got off to a tremendous and unsustainable start. It has weathered its first bit of adversity. It just has to go out there and win series and good things will happen.

 

[gryoung]

My concerns are (1) David Price - and if his best days far behind him and (2) the offensive black hole that is the 8/9 hitters and how long Cora can go with almost 25% of the lineup not producing.

Outside of these items — all’s pretty good so far.

 

[JimD]

I predict 19-11 over that span (538 has them at 17-13). Both of us have the Yankees at 18-12 (thru June 4) so I put the Sox 3 games in front and 538 has their lead down to 1.

FWIW (which is sadly very little) I have Boston go the following:
3-1 @ Tex
1-2 @ NYY
1-2 @ Tor
3-0 v Oak
3-1 v Bal
2-1 @ TB
2-1 v Atl
2-1 v Tor
2-2 @ Hou

I just can't see this team playing at a .600-plus pace until Price and Pomeranz get straightened out.

 

[phenweigh]

Now we are up to one-fifth of the season. Here is a chart comparing the 2018 Sox to previous John Henry owned Sox fifths:



Best first fifth since 2002.

 

[BaseballJones]

Some "on pace for" numbers:

Mookie: 65 homers, 170 runs, 130 rbi, 60 doubles, 445 total bases
Martinez: 35 homers, 125 rbi, 180 strikeouts
Devers: 30 homers, 115 rbi
Kimbrel: 40 saves, 95 k
Porcello: 25 wins, 232 ip
Sale: 210 ip, 255 k
Sox: 120 wins

I actually think Martinez and Kimbrel are pretty much right where they should be. Mookie is obviously not going to keep this up. Devers might - he has 30 homer potential. Porcello looks great but won't finish 25-0. And the Sox won't win 120 games. But man, it's been a great start to the year for sure.

 

[AB in DC]

Despite some iffy performances lately, the Sox are among the league leaders in basically every category:
(all of these per Fangraphs)

AL Batting

WAR
1. NYY 6.3
3. Bos 5.7
4. Hou 4.9

wRC+
1. NYY 111
2. Bos 110
7. Hou 102

wOBA
1. Bos .341
2. NYY .338
10. Hou .320

AL Starters

WAR
1. Hou 6.1
2. NYY 4.0
3. Bos 3.8
(no one else above 3.0)

FIP
1. Hou 3.06
2. Bos 3.58
3. NYY 3.59

xFIP
1. Hou 3.06
2. Bos 3.78
6. NYY 3.98

AL Relievers

WAR
1. NYY 2.7
2. Bos 2.0
3. Hou 1.2

FIP
1. NYY 2.86
2. Hou 3.08
3. Bos 3.16
(no one else below 3.77)

xFIP
1. NYY 2.88
2. Bos 3.33
3. Hou 3.39
(no one else below 4.00)

AL Fielding

Def
3. NYY 3.8
4. Bos 3.6
11. Hou -2.0

UZR/150
2. NYY 5.0
4. Bos 3.3
5. Hou 2.3

(edit: I think none of these are adjusted for strength of schedule, but looking at BPs D3-D2, Hou is +1.1, Bos is +0.4, NYY is +0.3. So no major outliers there.)

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Scary thing about that is how much better the Yankees look overall in those stats, particularly if/when the starters come around.

 

[Sale4CY]

Scary thing about that is how much better the Yankees look overall in those stats, particularly if/when the starters come around.

Their starters have overperformed, not under.

 

[chawson]

Their starters have overperformed, not under.

I'm not sure this is true. Severino has slightly overperformed and Sabathia significantly, but Gray and Tanaka have both been unlucky so far. Montgomery is hurt. In the bullpen, Chapman and Green have been as-advertised excellent, while Warren, Robertson and Betances have underperformed, and Kahnle seems to be broken.

That said, the rotation is where they're most vulnerable. Severino is legit and Tanaka is still fine, but Gray has always been overrated and he could be playing himself out of True Yankee status. German isn't special.

 

[jon abbey]

That said, the rotation is where they're most vulnerable. Severino is legit and Tanaka is still fine, but Gray has always been overrated and he could be playing himself out of True Yankee status. German isn't special.

Gray actually is starting to put it together, he looked quite good in his last start. Eno Sarris addressed your last point on The Athletic today, just what does NY have in German, trying to find the best comparison for each of his pitches. It's a pay site, so I will just repeat his conclusions that German has Scherzer's 4-seamer (!!), Charlie Morton's sinker (!), and Ivan Nova's curve. His full conclusion:

"It’s still fun to go through the names and consider pitchers that throw his pitches. If German improves the changeup, and his below average command, maybe he could join Max Scherzer as a dominant pitcher. That has to be a 95 percentile outcome.

A little bit down the list is Charlie Morton, who has great velocity and a killer breaking ball and a split-finger that’s been just good enough to keep the lefties at bay in recent years. Make that a 75th percentile type outcome, but totally possible because of their similarities in spin, movement, and velocity on their primary pitches.

The more likely outcome might be a modern day, slightly upgraded Ivan Nova. German has two good fastballs that are higher in spin than Nova’s, and that’s meaningful — you can see it in the added strikeout rates. If German’s changeup doesn’t improve, he’ll have it more as a show-me pitch than a foundational one in the future, but he’ll still be a useful to above-average pitcher, as Nova has been most years.

After six no-hit innings Sunday, ‘a slightly better Ivan Nova’ may count as cold water. But, for a team that doesn’t feature much starting pitching depth past their front five, having that sort of resource may be the difference between the Wild Card and the Division. That’s good news, and it has the potential to be a lot better."

 

[uk_sox_fan]

I predict 19-11 over that span (538 has them at 17-13). Both of us have the Yankees at 18-12 (thru June 4) so I put the Sox 3 games in front and 538 has their lead down to 1.

FWIW (which is sadly very little) I have Boston go the following:
3-1 @ Tex actual: 3-1
1-2 @ NYY actual: 1-2
1-2 @ Tor actual: 2-1
3-0 v Oak
3-1 v Bal
2-1 @ TB
2-1 v Atl
2-1 v Tor
2-2 @ Hou

Through the 10-game road trip they're now 1-game ahead of my prediction. Of course the next phase - a 6-1 home stand - is a tall order, but so far so good. Sox are now 11-4 (.733) at home and 17-8 (.680) on the road which translates to 114.5 wins on the year. With a win tomorrow there will be no teams that they have a losing record to.

 

[Rasputin]

It's roughly a quarter of the season and the Sox and Yanks are both 28-12. That's a 112 win pace.

Before the season, it looked like both teams were going to be in the top 7-8 teams with the Astros, Indians, and NL teams. So far the to have pretty clearly been the two best teams albeit both fueled by unsustainable streaks.

Whichever team is healthiest is likely to win and go into the playoffs as the world series favorite.

 

[grimshaw]

They have also played the most road games of any team in MLB. Not that their schedule has been that tough, but there is some hay to be made at home.

 

[bosockboy]

It's roughly a quarter of the season and the Sox and Yanks are both 28-12. That's a 112 win pace.

Before the season, it looked like both teams were going to be in the top 7-8 teams with the Astros, Indians, and NL teams. So far the to have pretty clearly been the two best teams albeit both fueled by unsustainable streaks.

Whichever team is healthiest is likely to win and go into the playoffs as the world series favorite.

Hard to discount Houston from this.

 

[BaseballJones]

1/4 of the way through. Legit MVP candidates right now...

Betts: 42 r, 13 hr, 27 rbi, .360/.440/.772/1.212, 3.0 bWAR
Machado: 25 r, 13 hr, 38 rbi, .350/.431/.669/1.100, 1.9 bWAR
Martinez: 24 r, 10 hr, 33 rbi, .342/.394/.624/1.018, 1.5 bWAR
Simmons: 25 r, 3 hr, 23 rbi, .338/.405/.500/.905, 2.2 bWAR
Trout: 33 r, 12 hr, 25 rbi, .315/.450/.640/1.100, 3.3 bWAR
Judge: 33 r, 11 hr, 35 rbi, .311/.440/.601/1.042, 2.1 bWAR
Lindor: 34 r, 12 hr, 25 rbi, .321/.388/.624/1.012, 2.6 bWAR

Lots of players putting up eye-popping numbers so far.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

So far the [Sox and Yankees] have pretty clearly been the two best teams albeit both fueled by unsustainable streaks.

I'd argue it's still pretty clearly the World Champion 'Stros, who have wildly underperformed their Pythag to date. Their offense has regressed from last year's insane heights, but their starting rotation led by Verlander and Cole has been off-the-charts ridiculous. When your fifth best starter is Dallas Keuchel, that's ... worrisome. I'd much rather face the MFY in the ALCS than those guys.

Sox and MFY at #2-3 is still pretty fun, though. (And just to reiterate: send the Astros back to the NL where they belong!)

 

[teddywingman]

Most eye-popping is those 42 runs scored by Mookie. I think the leadoff spot is right, even if it hurts his RBI. His baserunning savvy is one of the best parts of his game.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Mookie has been most comfortable in the 1 slot over his career. He was moved to 3/4 after 30 HR in 2016, only hit 1 in September.

Hypothetically he drives in more as a 2-4 hitter. But in reality I think he would put up worse stats there long term.

 

[lapa]

Houstons expected wins is 30 or 31, the Sox and Yankees 26. The Sox and MFY have slightly outperformed, Houston very much underperformed relative to that. Any discussion of WS favourites from the AL begins with the Astros, so theres no point talking as though its between the Sox and Yankees first.

Whats good from our point of view is we played a lot more road games than the Yankees for sure and even the Astros. We also have several areas that are obviously problems which hopefully can improve or be upgraded.

It might be sillly to think Mookie has become the player he seems to be, but other than him, I dont know if anyone else is really "wowwing" it, so I mean the record so far is amazing and they have good starting pitching, hitting and even some relievers, I think its going to be a very exciting season, lots of room for optimism on top of a fantastic record after 40 games

 

[tims4wins]

72-50 to get to 100 wins, or roughly a full season 95.6 win pace.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

wow, the Astros have only given up 2.6 runs/game. That's insane and has to regress some

 

[Sale4CY]

I'd argue it's still pretty clearly the World Champion 'Stros, who have wildly underperformed their Pythag to date. Their offense has regressed from last year's insane heights, but their starting rotation led by Verlander and Cole has been off-the-charts ridiculous. When your fifth best starter is Dallas Keuchel, that's ... worrisome. I'd much rather face the MFY in the ALCS than those guys.

Sox and MFY at #2-3 is still pretty fun, though. (And just to reiterate: send the Astros back to the NL where they belong!)

Their starting pitching is bound to regress quite a bit though. Cole and certainly Morton don’t have a track record of being mega aces like they’ve been so far.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

72-50 to get to 100 wins, or roughly a full season 95.6 win pace.

With 66 of the remaining games at home and 56 on the road, and an average SOS to date (.503 opponents' winning %).

1946 (104-50) was a long time ago. We can do this!

 

[Sale4CY]

With 66 of the remaining games at home and 56 on the road, and an average SOS to date (.503 opponents' winning %).

1946 (104-50) was a long time ago. We can do this!

I know 1946 is the team record for wins but it’s also the last time they won 100, right?

 

[BaseballJones]

Their starting pitching is bound to regress quite a bit though. Cole and certainly Morton don’t have a track record of being mega aces like they’ve been so far.

Well not to the tune of a 1-something era. But Cole has been really good. Career era of 3.36. His 2015 stat line:

208.0 ip, 19-8, 2.60 era, 1.09 whip, 8.7 k/9

Those are ace-like numbers. CYA-like numbers. And he's just now 27 years old. Guy is a stud.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

I know 1946 is the team record for wins but it’s also the last time they won 100, right?

Yep. With the closest calls coming in 1977, 1978, 2004, and 2013. (Goddamn those '04 and '13 teams!)

 

[Sale4CY]

Yep. With the closest calls coming in 1977, 1978, 2004, and 2013. (Goddamn those '04 and '13 teams!)

2007 feels like a team that should have easily won 100 games. They got off to such a great start but kinda coasted to the finish line so they ‘only’ won 96 but that was good enough for the #1 seed.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

This is turning out to be a year where the new WC format is gonna suck for the Sox or the MFY.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Meanwhile: sounds like Pedroia's rehab stint in Pawtucket could start as soon as tomorrow; as crummy as Nuñez has been, I'd expect a Pedey return to bring a positive jolt both offensively and defensively.

At some point, I wanna see at least a game or two where our "three pitchers" (at 2B, CF and C) are replaced by Pedroia, Moreland and Swihart...

 

[reggiecleveland]

At some point, I wanna see at least a game or two where our "three pitchers" (at 2B, CF and C) are replaced by Pedroia, Moreland and Swihart...

This is the biggest concern on my mind. The bullpen always seems a problem if they don't save every single game. But it is tough to grind out those wins when a pitcher has bad night if you have two pitchers in the lineup. They are even pythag with the Yankees and just ops+ of 90 or 95 from catcher or CF could put them a but ahead.

It is pretty clear Cora does not trust Swihart to catch, not sure what he is doing on roster other than not being released.

 

[Rasputin]

Yep. With the closest calls coming in 1977, 1978, 2004, and 2013. (Goddamn those '04 and '13 teams!)

I often curse them over breakfast.

This is turning out to be a year where the new WC format is gonna suck for the Sox or the MFY.

A) Yes

B) It also suggests that there is unlikely to be coasting a-la those fucking losers from 2007.

C) 105 or bust!

It is pretty clear Cora does not trust Swihart to catch, not sure what he is doing on roster other than not being released.

D) Yeah, I've strongly supported the idea that we should keep and play Swihart but if you're not gonna play him, then he's just costing a roster spot.

 

[Earthbound64]

A) Yes

B) It also suggests that there is unlikely to be coasting a-la those fucking losers from 2007.

C) 105 or bust!

And as a follow-up to B/C, with not coasting, no chance for a "tune-up game" with an injury like in 1946.

 

[grimshaw]

Aside from the hiccup vs. the A's they have .500 or better records against every other opponent. Even with the 3-3 against the Yankees, they are +10 in run differential.

They have 67 games against under .500 opponents left vs. 45 over .500.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Aside from the hiccup vs. the A's they have .500 or better records against every other opponent. Even with the 3-3 against the Yankees, they are +10 in run differential.
They have 67 games against under .500 opponents left vs. 45 over .500.

Winning one of the games 14 to 1. Fun with numbers.

 

[grimshaw]

Winning one of the games 14 to 1. Fun with numbers.

The point still being, they haven't been outplayed vs all but the A's.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

All bodes well for the playoffs since:
a) it's not very likely that they'll have to face the A's in the playoffs
b) they're 14-1 in series finales and if you win your series finale in the playoffs you've got a good chance to advance...