The First Annual Just How Good Is Masahiro Tanaka? Thread

[Wingack]

So what exactly do the Yankees have here? Before he came to the majors, anyone and everyone compared him to Kuroda, but watching them they are obviously quite different. I tempered my expectations about him but man has he been impressive. He seems to get better as the game goes along. 28ks in 22 innings. Fantastic command. 
 
So just how good is this guy?

 

[AbbyNoho]

Early returns are fantastic, and he passes the eyeball test too. He has a 50% GB rate after today, along with 11.45 K/9 and only 2 walks in 22 innings pitched. Basically, this sucks for the rest of the AL East. 
 
It's still only 3 starts, though, so there's obviously not a ton to go off of. But there certainly hasn't been much to complain about besides, perhaps, the HR/FB rate being a bit high. 

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, I wouldn't draw many conclusions yet, except that he's pretty clearly not going to be a bust. It's worth noting that not only was today against the Cubs, it was on the six days rest that he was used to in Japan, and which will of course be a rarity going forward.  
 
The only two hits off him today were both bunts, by the way. Really impressive outing. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

We won't really know until he's cubically transformed

 

[Bongorific]

We won't really know until he's cubically transformed

Phenomenal.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

His start has been phenomenal, however, before making a real judgement you have to wait until he works his way through the league a few times. There's still not much of a book out on the guy, and most hitters haven't seen him live yet.

 

[derekson]

Yeah, I wouldn't draw many conclusions yet, except that he's pretty clearly not going to be a bust. It's worth noting that not only was today against the Cubs, it was on the six days rest that he was used to in Japan, and which will of course be a rarity going forward.  
 
The only two hits off him today were both bunts, by the way. Really impressive outing. 

 
Daisuke Matsuzaka after 3 starts in 2007:
 
20 IP 17 H 6 R 6 ER 5 BB 24 SO 1 HR 2.70 ERA
 
Pretty unlikely that his shoulder and elbow will both fall apart like Matsuzaka's did, and everything else that happened to him, but 3 starts is way too early into a 5 or 6 year contract to say a guy definitely won't be a bust.

 

[wolfe_boston]

I'm getting scared. Tanaka is looking like an ace and both Kuroda and Pineda are pitching well. I think Sabathia is much better than his ERA would suggest as his K and BB #'s are very good.

 

[jon abbey]

 
Daisuke Matsuzaka after 3 starts in 2007:
 
20 IP 17 H 6 R 6 ER 5 BB 24 SO 1 HR 2.70 ERA
 
Pretty unlikely that his shoulder and elbow will both fall apart like Matsuzaka's did, and everything else that happened to him, but 3 starts is way too early into a 5 or 6 year contract to say a guy definitely won't be a bust.

 
I meant that he's not going to be a performance bust, a la Kei Igawa. Any pitcher's arm can blow out at any moment, we all know that. 

 

[wolfe_boston]

To answer your question l'm afraid Tanaka is going to be an ace. Matsuzaka didn't have an out pitch or the control to be a finesse pitcher. Darvish has maintained his K levels from Japan but has more walks as he can't get away with chalenging hitters like he did in Japan. According to David Cone, Tanaka has the best splitter in the world and is potentially a Uehara with a mid-nineties fastball that starts games.

 

[jon abbey]

If he has a mid-nineties FB, I don't think he can throw it more than a few times per game. 

 

[terrynever]

After watching him for just 3 starts, an early impression is that Tanaka is a complete pitcher who attacks hitters instead of nibbling. He is not unhittable and his 14.5:1 strikeout to walk ratio cannot hold up. His splitter can be devastating. His fastball is fairly ordinary but he uses it well to blend in with his other pitches to set up hitters. Right now, he is ahead of big league hitters because they haven't seen him much. Let's talk in July when he has been through the East two or three times.
 
David Cone compares Tanaka to Catfish Hunter, a control pitcher who gave up a bunch of home runs during a HOF career. At 25, maybe he is the young version of Catfish, and that was pretty good.

 

[darnedsox]

I'm scared too. As soon as my wife says "lights out" I can just feel the monster under the bed breathing.

 

[Doctor G]

If the hitters discover a "tell' on his splitter  he will revert to being human. That's a big if though.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
I meant that he's not going to be a performance bust, a la Kei Igawa. Any pitcher's arm can blow out at any moment, we all know that. 

 
And his point stands.  It's too early to say if he's going to be a performance bust or not.  Hell, Matsuzaka had a ridiculously good 2008 season.  He still ended up being a bust.  I think Tanaka is better equipped to succeed against major league hitters than Matsuzaka was, but he has a ways to go before you can make such a bold claim.  Being a control pitcher makes him a completely different animal than Daisuke, as does his being taller and having larger hands, so comparing the two only makes sense in that they both came from Japan.  That said, the league hasn't written a book on Tanaka yet, so he's yet to have to make his first major adjustment.
 
I thought this was a good signing by the Yankees when it happened, and I think he's going to be a good or very good pitcher.  So this isn't me poo-pooing him or the deal.  I just don't see how anyone could think a statement like "he's pretty clearly not going to be a bust" is proven after three starts.

 

[luckiestman]

I was ready to be disappointed, but I am really impressed. 

 

[orphan]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Matsuzaka became a "bust" primarily because of injuries, right? Prior to that he was a stud in '07/'08, right? 

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Well, Matsuzaka had a lot of unsustainable things happen in his really great season. It wasn't a surprise he regressed, but the injuries were definitely a factor in how far he fell.

 

[jon abbey]

 
 I just don't see how anyone could think a statement like "he's pretty clearly not going to be a bust" is proven after three starts.

 
Well, I thought that was about as mild a statement as I could make. Feel free to bump this thread in three years (or fewer, or more) and tell me I was wrong, but I'm sticking by it. 
 
But if you want to argue that this thread is pointless and unnecessary for at least a few more months, I agree with that too. 

 

[cromulence]

 
And his point stands.  It's too early to say if he's going to be a performance bust or not.  Hell, Matsuzaka had a ridiculously good 2008 season.  He still ended up being a bust.  I think Tanaka is better equipped to succeed against major league hitters than Matsuzaka was, but he has a ways to go before you can make such a bold claim.  Being a control pitcher makes him a completely different animal than Daisuke, as does his being taller and having larger hands, so comparing the two only makes sense in that they both came from Japan.  That said, the league hasn't written a book on Tanaka yet, so he's yet to have to make his first major adjustment.
 
I thought this was a good signing by the Yankees when it happened, and I think he's going to be a good or very good pitcher.  So this isn't me poo-pooing him or the deal.  I just don't see how anyone could think a statement like "he's pretty clearly not going to be a bust" is proven after three starts.

 
I thought it was pretty clear that he meant it in the sense of Tanaka not being Kei Igawa 2.0, which has most definitely been proven after three starts. Lighten up.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Matsuzaka became a "bust" primarily because of injuries, right? Prior to that he was a stud in '07/'08, right? 

Take a look at Matsuzaka's h/9 in 08. With his walk rate it was a matter of time before he struggled. And he was good but not great in 07. 08 ended up being the outlier.

 
Well, I thought that was about as mild a statement as I could make. Feel free to bump this thread in three years (or fewer, or more) and tell me I was wrong, but I'm sticking by it. 
 
But if you want to argue that this thread is pointless and unnecessary for at least a few more months, I agree with that too. 

Nothing wrong with a good sploogefest. No thread is pointless if people are enjoying the topic.

 
I thought it was pretty clear that he meant it in the sense of Tanaka not being Kei Igawa 2.0, which has most definitely been proven after three starts. Lighten up.

I don't need to lighten up. If people want to engage in some good old fashioned optimism, nothing is stopping them. But if people are going to make unsupportable claims, other people are going to call then on it. If JA wanted to say he's clearly not another Kei Igawa, he could have. He didn't, though.

And again, I think Tanaka is going to be a good or very good pitcher and I liked the signing for you guys, so hats off on having what looks like a fine young pitcher at the start of his prime.

As mentioned above, the future rotation looks bright.

 

[jon abbey]

"Tanaka’s basically running a Cliff Lee strike rate and a Francisco Liriano contact rate with a Francisco Liriano zone rate. In other words, he’s Liriano with more strikes. In other words, he’s damned near perfect. And recall that he only just started here a couple weeks ago."
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/masahiro-tanakas-non-secret-weapon/

 

[Average Reds]

 
Well, I thought that was about as mild a statement as I could make. Feel free to bump this thread in three years (or fewer, or more) and tell me I was wrong, but I'm sticking by it. 
 
But if you want to argue that this thread is pointless and unnecessary for at least a few more months, I agree with that too. 

Your statement was extremely mild. I shudder to think of the commotion we'd be seeing if the Sox had a new pitcher performing this well.

The key for Tanaka will be what happens when hitters starts to get a "book" on his stuff the second and third time through the league. If he keeps performing as an ace after that, then you'll know you have something special.

 

[Sampo Gida]

The real test for Tanaka is facing some good hitting teams the 2nd and 3rd time around after he has had a string of pitching a few games with 4 games rest.   Now he is well rested and facing teams for the 1st time which is always an advantage for the pitcher
 
He looked good but not great against Toronto and Baltimore although both of them were missing key players from their lineup. The Cubs are AAAA material and probably not much better than some of the better teams Tanaka faced in Japan, so not placing much weight on that..
 
I am high on him though, and his downside is not too great with that split.  He does seem to be throwing it a bit more than in Japan and it will be interesting if this causes any arm issues as some people think a split may place more stress on the arm than some other pitches.  However, he is throwing fewer pitches per start so maybe not.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Sampo, you're trying too hard.

Anyway, I'm just thankful that as a quality young pitcher, Tanaka features control as one of his major attributes. It won't just be hitters adjusting. His control will help him and McCann make adjustments as the season progresses too. Hopefully he can stay healthy and keep his mechanics clean.

We all know the pitfalls that await young pitchers. Especially young ones who come over from other leagues. But so far so good.

 

[terrynever]

Can't wait for Tanaka's next start. And Pineda. This is fun, watching to see if they can keep it up. It's also the best thing that could happen to an aging Yankee team, to have a pair of 25-year-old pitchers boosting the rotation in a big way.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Comparison of Daisuke and Tanakas first 3 starts seeing as Tanaka is now scheduled to start vs the Red Sox in his next start thanks to the double header
 
Daisuke IP 20, H 17, ERA 2.79, FIP 2.39, ERA+ 191, HR 1 , K 24, BB 5
Tanaka IP 22, H 15, ERA 2.05, FIP 1.96, ERA+ 195, HR 2, K 28, BB 2
 
The k rate is actually the same if you account for the higher K rate today

 

[Wingack]

In an article on Grantland by Jonah Keri published prior to yesterday's game had this crazy stat in it:
 

ESPN contributor Jason Collette passed along this wild Tanaka nugget: This year, Tanaka has thrown 130 fewer pitches than Justin Verlander and 125 fewer pitches than James Shields … yet the Yankees’ new ace has induced more swings and misses than either (51 for Tanaka, 50 for Verlander, 47 for Shields).

 

[Van Everyman]

Looking past the numbers—7.1IP 7H 2ER 7K 0BB—as a Red Sox fan, last night's game felt somewhat encouraging. Tanaka's final numbers were good—very good even—but a number of the balls the Sox made contact with—not just the homers but also the outs—were crushed. And most were on the second time through in the order which makes me wonder whether how much of Tanaka's success is that he's new to the league.

 

[orphan]

The league will inevitably "write a book" on Tanaka, but don't pitchers also adapt and learn something from the experience.  

 

[jon abbey]

And most were on the second time through in the order which makes me wonder whether how much of Tanaka's success is that he's new to the league.

 
In previous outings, he was dominant after the first time through the order. Last night was him being 'off' a bit, his splitter wasn't quite right and he only got 12 swings and misses. 
 
His FB can obviously be hit if you make him throw it in the strike zone, but that's a lot easier said than done. He's not just a 2 or 3 pitch pitcher. 

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

The league will inevitably "write a book" on Tanaka, but don't pitchers also adapt and learn something from the experience.  

 
Good ones do.
 
Average ones become relievers
 
Bad ones become Irabu

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Honestly he's very good but some of the shine will definitely come off as the season goes on. His offspeed stuff is very good and his splitter is great but he had three fastballs that were absolutely crushed in the fourth inning including AJ's double high off the wall that mght be gone in some parks.
And the Sox had more comfortable AB's the second and third time around.
I think he will be a great 2 at bed or a good 3 at worst, which is fine.
And you do have to wonder with the innings on his arm and the number of splits he throws when that ticking time bomb will go off.

 

[rembrat]

I think #3 is his ceiling. I think the difference between an ace, a true ace, and everyone else is the fourseam fastball and Tanaka just doesn't have that pitch. There is no deception to it, there is no action on it, and it's not a power pitch, it's just... sorta there. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

The assessments some of you guys can make based on a handful of pitches are amazing. Teams should be beating down your doors to hire you.

I think it is way, way too early to try and figure out what Tanaka's floor or ceiling is. I'm hopeful because he seems to have good control, and because of that, along with a good catcher, can potentially make adjustments along with the hitters as time goes by.

Of course that doesn't mean he will. We'll see.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Because prefacing a statement with "I think" is making an absolute assessment? Lighten up, Francis.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Making any assessment on future potential based on a few fastballs thrown in a handful of games is silly. That's all.

Btw, I think I saw a few balls hit hard off of Lester. I think he is probably done.

 

[rembrat]

Clearly your butt is hurt because we aren't worshipping Tanaka.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Speaking of adjustments, hopefully MLB umpires will make adjustments and not call the pitches at the ankles strikes. That was quite a zone he had last night especially in the first three innings.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Clearly your butt is hurt because we aren't worshipping Tanaka.

Clearly, my posts on Tanaka are full of worship

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Making any assessment on future potential based on a few fastballs thrown in a handful of games is silly. That's all.

Btw, I think I saw a few balls hit hard off of Lester. I think he is probably done.

Silly compared to making any assessment on future potential off of three starts when one of them was against the cubs?
I think he's going to be very good I'm not just a hater but I'm sure he realized he was finally in the bigs when he gave up two homers that probably would have travelled 900 feet on two heaters within three pitches.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Silly compared to making any assessment on future potential off of three starts when one of them was against the cubs?

Yeah, it's all a bit silly. Abbey suggesting that he won't be a bust like Igawa based on three starts was a pretty mild assessment, but still a little silly. Subsequent assessments based on a handful or two of fastballs thrown are even more so.

We're all wishcasting a bit, in one direction or another. There is no shame in it, but let's call it what it is.

 

[jon abbey]

I think he's going to be very good I'm not just a hater but I'm sure he realized he was finally in the bigs when he gave up two homers that probably would have travelled 900 feet on two heaters within three pitches.

 
He gave up a HR to the first batter he faced in his first game, I'm pretty sure he was aware of where he was both before that and after that. 
 
Also what's even sillier than projecting someone's career from one start is projecting someone's career from one start where it was raining fairly hard for most of it. 

 

[jon abbey]

The Ortiz HR was 482 feet (Napoli's 405), wow. 

 

[terrynever]

The Ortiz HR was 482 feet (Napoli's 405), wow. 

Napoli's homer hit one of the light standards on the way out of the park. It lacked elevation. Probably hit his harder than Papi hit the 482-foot bomb.
Tanaka has given up 4 homers in 29 innings so far, roughly one a start. Only one came with runners on base. I think that's the key. He's going to give up homers but is that a terrible thing when half or more are solo shots?
David Cone compares Tanaka to Catfish Hunter. In 1973, he gave up 39 homers in 256 innings and still went 21-5 in the middle of his Oakland prime.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, a HR or two per game aren't a huge deal when you're coupling that with not walking anyone, 35/2 K/BB ratio so far.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Speaking of adjustments, hopefully MLB umpires will make adjustments and not call the pitches at the ankles strikes. That was quite a zone he had last night especially in the first three innings.

 
I was curious about whether he was getting those kinds of calls in his earlier starts so I dug through his graphs at brooksbaseball.net to see.
 
April 4th.
 

 
April 9th
 

 
April 16th
 

 
April 22nd
 

 
So it seems that he's been getting the area just barely below the zone called in his favor, though that likely has a lot to do with the fact that he's also getting a ton of swings and misses down there.  The extremely low zone he got against the Red Sox stands out because Sox hitters didn't chase as much, and he got an area even lower than he'd gotten in his first three starts.
 
Seems the other night is an aberration... at least to this point in the season.  If he gets that zone in general going forward, he's going to have an easy time of it.  I'm guessing he won't, though.

 

[Sampo Gida]

RHH are absolutely crushing Tanakas fast ball when they put it in play.  Still a SSS though.  Fortunately LHH do not fare as well and nobody is touching his slider and splitter much except when he hangs one up in the zone.
 
 
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=547888&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&compType=none&gFilt=&time=game&minmax=ci&var=ra&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/28/2014&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=R

 

[Doctor G]

If he does not throw the low fastball for strikes he will stop getting the swing and misses on the splitter.
 
It is not as if the splitter is starting out looking like a  thigh to waist high fastball. 

 

[Year of Yaz]

MLB network has anointed him as the best starter in the AL. His stats certainly support that conclusion.