The evolution and evaluation of Jamie Collins

shoosh77

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UPS has failed to utilize the various Browns in Football.

"Antonio imagine Tearing threw a secondary, maybe a spin and a stiff arm, arriving in the end zone and giving a cute kid in glasses the football with a "A special delivery for Max!" Cue Voice over about UPS......finally fade out with Antonio saying "What Can Brown do for YOU!""

"Malcolm follow me here .....slow motion of you using a rip move to seperate and get through the Double team. The QB Tries to avoid him but you grab him and bring him down with a perfect form tackle. As you get up you say "UPS Ground Baby! WHOOOO!" Voiceover about UPS Dependability....finally fade out with you in our three Point....maybe We can see your breath in the cold air and you looking intensively at the camera saying "WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU!"

"Josh...imagine you didnt beat your wife....."
The first thing brown can do for Malcolm is stay out of the backside of his pants...
 

bakahump

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None whatsoever. But I did think it was a natural (some humor, easy to associate, Simple) from a marketing perspective. Also not sure if NFL fans are UPS target demo, but they did have a pretty high profile NASCAR campaign 5-10 years ago.

Of course my marketing experience consists of chuckling at the Monkey commercials, so theres that.

I wonder though if the Josh Brown thing does weigh heavily on national brands. Obviously no brand wants to be associated with a "spokesperson breaking the law" with DV being an especially bad third rail (rightfully so.)

While TB and Rodgers and Manning have longevity (of avoiding scandal.....excepting BS ones.) they also as Qbs may have a "attitude of responsibility" that players at other positions might not. Just a thought??

Maybe its the idea that these "5 guys are Safe" and the rest are basically wildcards that can tarnish our brand in a 3:28am Cocaine Heartbeat.

Enough hijack of the #1 FA LB this offseason :p
 

Curt S Loew

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None whatsoever. But I did think it was a natural (some humor, easy to associate, Simple) from a marketing perspective. Also not sure if NFL fans are UPS target demo, but they did have a pretty high profile NASCAR campaign 5-10 years ago.

Of course my marketing experience consists of chuckling at the Monkey commercials, so theres that.
Well, first they would have to resurrect their "What can brown do for you?" slogan. They retired that years ago. Maybe bring Troy out of retirement to "unretire" the slogan.

Anyway, it was great when Kevin Brown was stinking it up for the MFY and it was used to ridicule him by the fans.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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There is a real long way to go until the draft, but it seems like everyone and their uncle has the Browns picking Myles Garrett in the first round and a DT with one of their next 3 picks. Between that and Gregg Williams coming to town, Collins could have landed in a decent spot for his talents. If he was in a role where he was a threat to rush the passer and couldn't get double teamed on every play, and where he was cleaning up a few gaps, he could be a nice fit. Let's see. Long way to go.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Depending on whether the ad is successful and takes off or whether it doesn't garner much attention and is still/born?
Depends on where in the spot he is (is it Jamie Collins along with jim Brown and Bernie Kosar? In that case he will get a free lunch and can fare), how broad the advertising runs (a lot of the ads portrayed as "national" were ads for national brands but with regional highlighters. So you would see/hear Collins frequently in the Ohio area and the other players less frequently, but then you would see Collins infrequently in the other markets), and then how it does. Big names sometimes have "huge upfront + piece of the back end of itnis bigger than Y" deals, but smaller names usually only get a flat fee with kickers if the ad is shown for more than the defined run period or in other markets.

You can get athletes to do some shit for pretty cheap. You would be surprised.
 

Marciano490

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Depends on where in the spot he is (is it Jamie Collins along with jim Brown and Bernie Kosar? In that case he will get a free lunch and can fare), how broad the advertising runs (a lot of the ads portrayed as "national" were ads for national brands but with regional highlighters. So you would see/hear Collins frequently in the Ohio area and the other players less frequently, but then you would see Collins infrequently in the other markets), and then how it does. Big names sometimes have "huge upfront + piece of the back end of itnis bigger than Y" deals, but smaller names usually only get a flat fee with kickers if the ad is shown for more than the defined run period or in other markets.

You can get athletes to do some shit for pretty cheap. You would be surprised.
Especially bodybuilders when their juice and gh is running low. Google Kai Greene and grapefruit.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Depends on where in the spot he is (is it Jamie Collins along with jim Brown and Bernie Kosar? In that case he will get a free lunch and can fare), how broad the advertising runs (a lot of the ads portrayed as "national" were ads for national brands but with regional highlighters. So you would see/hear Collins frequently in the Ohio area and the other players less frequently, but then you would see Collins infrequently in the other markets), and then how it does. Big names sometimes have "huge upfront + piece of the back end of itnis bigger than Y" deals, but smaller names usually only get a flat fee with kickers if the ad is shown for more than the defined run period or in other markets.

You can get athletes to do some shit for pretty cheap. You would be surprised.
What is the 'back end' of a commercial or ad campaign?

To be more specific, how does a company measure Y in this scenario and attribute it to a specific campaign?
 

Devizier

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Brands have far more potential value.
I think it's that's false dichotomy, where a professional athlete chooses between their brand or their salary. In fact, I would argue that a higher salary improves an athlete's brand for whatever that is worth). More importantly, most athletes -- even successful ones -- reap marginal (at best) surplus income from marketing. Their salaries are substantial and their careers are short. It is more likely than not that someone like Jamie Collins will make more from his next contract than from everything else in his life combined. And an athlete's brand is pretty much over when they are. With very rare exception of guys like OJ Simpson, there isn't a whole lot of demand for retired athletes in commercials. Well, not much beyond selling magnetic band woo like Dan Marino, or signing autographs at collectable shows.
 

E5 Yaz

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11) Jamie Collins, Cleveland Brownsoutside linebacker: The hardest free agent to rank on the list. The Browns will be highly motivated to retain Collins after dealing a compensatory third-round pickfor him. His time in Cleveland was unremarkable, and New England's willingness to trade him is a red flag for interested teams. While his production does not match his skill set or reputation, Collins should not fear. He may not get top-tier money as hoped, but any player this versatile will get paid somewhere.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000773220/article/leveon-bell-eric-berry-head-top-25-free-agents-of-2017
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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What is the 'back end' of a commercial or ad campaign?

To be more specific, how does a company measure Y in this scenario and attribute it to a specific campaign?
It really depends.

The back ends I have seen have been tied to one of:

- YoY growth in sales specific to products X,Y and or Z
- direct sales from a special offer, promo, or webpage featuring the athlete, or
- just straight percentage of revenue

The whole question of "how many sales can you attribute to advertising" is interesting and fun from a quantitative perspective. I did a chunk of that work early in my career and saw it done horribly and somewhat well.....but in truth, advertising doesn't work in isolation nor does it always have the immediacy you generally think. You need to evaluate the entire mix, end to end, from prospect to purchase. This drives people nuts when they hear this btw.
 

Marciano490

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It really depends.

The back ends I have seen have been tied to one of:

- YoY growth in sales specific to products X,Y and or Z
- direct sales from a special offer, promo, or webpage featuring the athlete, or
- just straight percentage of revenue

The whole question of "how many sales can you attribute to advertising" is interesting and fun from a quantitative perspective. I did a chunk of that work early in my career and saw it done horribly and somewhat well.....but in truth, advertising doesn't work in isolation nor does it always have the immediacy you generally think. You need to evaluate the entire mix, end to end, from prospect to purchase. This drives people nuts when they hear this btw.
There seems to be quite a "science" behind it - use of quotes because I'm not sure how accurate and infallible it is. I'm not going to full on do that thing I get crap for even when relevant, but when I've had friends who work in campaigns for companies with a lot of other spokespeople, they had very specific analytics to tell what sales were attributable to what salesperson and quick methods of adjusting usage and incentivizing.
 

SMU_Sox

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It really depends.

The back ends I have seen have been tied to one of:

- YoY growth in sales specific to products X,Y and or Z
- direct sales from a special offer, promo, or webpage featuring the athlete, or
- just straight percentage of revenue

The whole question of "how many sales can you attribute to advertising" is interesting and fun from a quantitative perspective. I did a chunk of that work early in my career and saw it done horribly and somewhat well.....but in truth, advertising doesn't work in isolation nor does it always have the immediacy you generally think. You need to evaluate the entire mix, end to end, from prospect to purchase. This drives people nuts when they hear this btw.
There seems to be quite a "science" behind it - use of quotes because I'm not sure how accurate and infallible it is. I'm not going to full on do that thing I get crap for even when relevant, but when I've had friends who work in campaigns for companies with a lot of other spokespeople, they had very specific analytics to tell what sales were attributable to what salesperson and quick methods of adjusting usage and incentivizing.
I've been in CPG for 6-7 years and work for IRI as a client insights consultant (consumer/shopper insights). I've worked for Mission (Gruma Corp) who have sports ties and now my client is Frito-Lay. I know this is BBTL and we are going to go off-thread here but I want to add a third here to this. IRI has added a media division to help with the issue of figuring out what kind of lift an ad campaign has along with other measures to evaluate. Without going into anything have you all seen that Doritos is dropping its SB ad?

Rick, I think it's fair to say that there isn't even a way to measure brand equity well and there are problems with every measure out there to calculate it. We've come a long way since faxing sales numbers to manufacturers but there is a long way to go. The stats and methodology revolution in sports is in most fields now. It's a fun time if you like this kind of stuff. Edit: the quant revolution I mean and I am not trying to say that the movement came from sports just that we on SoSH see it for sports. Sorry for my shitty writing.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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I've been in CPG for 6-7 years and work for IRI as a client insights consultant (consumer/shopper insights). I've worked for Mission (Gruma Corp) who have sports ties and now my client is Frito-Lay. I know this is BBTL and we are going to go off-thread here but I want to add a third here to this. IRI has added a media division to help with the issue of figuring out what kind of lift an ad campaign has along with other measures to evaluate. Without going into anything have you all seen that Doritos is dropping its SB ad?

Rick, I think it's fair to say that there isn't even a way to measure brand equity well and there are problems with every measure out there to calculate it. We've come a long way since faxing sales numbers to manufacturers but there is a long way to go. The stats and methodology revolution in sports is in most fields now. It's a fun time if you like this kind of stuff. Edit: the quant revolution I mean and I am not trying to say that the movement came from sports just that we on SoSH see it for sports. Sorry for my shitty writing.
Right. With all due respect I am not sure that you read my post. I said that, at best, measuring lift from a campaign can be done somewhat well, but is done badly, frequently (although ad agencies won't tell you that).

Brand equity as a quantitative value is pure bullshit IMO, but I know some smart folks who do it and pay their mortgages from that work.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Right. With all due respect I am not sure that you read my post. I said that, at best, measuring lift from a campaign can be done somewhat well, but is done badly, frequently (although ad agencies won't tell you that).

Brand equity as a quantitative value is pure bullshit IMO, but I know some smart folks who do it and pay their mortgages from that work.
Right. You have to remove so much noise and all of the variables before launching an ad and hope that you you have good benchmarks for your Baseline. There's a ton of planning that goes in to it, and the constant changing nature of advertisement themselves makes predicting future success based on past success of campaigns exceedingly difficult.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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There seems to be quite a "science" behind it - use of quotes because I'm not sure how accurate and infallible it is. I'm not going to full on do that thing I get crap for even when relevant, but when I've had friends who work in campaigns for companies with a lot of other spokespeople, they had very specific analytics to tell what sales were attributable to what salesperson and quick methods of adjusting usage and incentivizing.
As screwy as it sounds, I think you are better to err on the side of clarity in sales and performance schemes rather than accuracy. If folks want to claim that they can isolate those impacts and have science magic work.....fine, but just make the comp scheme and incentive effective and clean and don't get in the way of my bus Dev plan. No, I am not going to shut down two channels in q3 so that you can calibrate your model Captain Nerdface.
 

Dr. Gonzo

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You are correct and they have to spend money too to get to the cap floor but this is really going to make the Hightower negotiations much more interesting.
 

kelpapa

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@patscap tweeted the Browns have the most cap space ever. He also tweeted about Collins:
Yes. He is going to be an UFA. Kuechly signed his deal two years away from free agency. Also, cap is higher now than when Luke signed.

Some other good tweets from @nflfilmstudy:
The linebacker market needs to be reset. Jamie Collins' deal can do that. $40 mil gap between #2 and #3 paid LBs, and Clay Matthews
signed his $66 mil deal in April 2013. It's been 4 years since then, huge cap increases. Makes perfect sense Collins will get more.
It's only a lot because of deals signed before the huge money boom in the last 2-3 years. Eventually Wagner and company will get much more
 

joe dokes

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Don't we also need to see what the contract "really" looks like before drawing any conclusions. Its a billion dollar deal!!!! a dollar a year for a billion years.
 

InstaFace

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Semi-crazy idea: They should permit a player's salary to be defined in their contract as "X% of the salary cap". For one thing, that will allow a player to see the benefits of a league growing in profitability, and to allow deals to remain contextualized for each other. But for another, it'll protect the league when the inevitable downside and crunch happens. Ask MLB how revenues were in 95-97, or NHL in the same period or 06-08. Eventually, cable subscriber attrition will mean networks can't afford the same level of financial commitment, even if it's still the only thing people don't DVR.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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In defense of this signing, if you're the Browns, you have to overpay anyone who will have the option to go elsewhere. In a couple years if they build up to being a good team they wouldn't have to make the same deal to the same player.
The problem is that in a couple of years, they won't be able to retain players because they have $5M/yr linebackers making $15M a year. These sort of deals are the ones that keep the Browns from ever not being the browns. (See Revis, Darelle - and the NYJ being $10M over the cap for next year)

Collins has elite athleticism, but his actual performance is no better than 'good' - paying 'good' players elite money is what gets you in trouble, and is exactly what the Patriots have been so good at avoiding.
 

Super Nomario

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The problem is that in a couple of years, they won't be able to retain players because they have $5M/yr linebackers making $15M a year. These sort of deals are the ones that keep the Browns from ever not being the browns. (See Revis, Darelle - and the NYJ being $10M over the cap for next year)

Collins has elite athleticism, but his actual performance is no better than 'good' - paying 'good' players elite money is what gets you in trouble, and is exactly what the Patriots have been so good at avoiding.
Let's not put the cart before the horse. The Browns hardly need to be concerned at this point that THEY HAVE SO MANY GOOD PLAYERS they can't afford them all.
 
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pappymojo

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The problem is that in a couple of years, they won't be able to retain players because they have $5M/yr linebackers making $15M a year. These sort of deals are the ones that keep the Browns from ever not being the browns. (See Revis, Darelle - and the NYJ being $10M over the cap for next year)

Collins has elite athleticism, but his actual performance is no better than 'good' - paying 'good' players elite money is what gets you in trouble, and is exactly what the Patriots have been so good at avoiding.
We don't know that the Browns are paying Collins elite money yet. Could be that they are paying him reasonable money for a good free agent linebacker.
 

Ed Hillel

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Surprised he took that over hitting the market or being franchised. I'd be happy with that deal or around it for Hightower.
 

DeadlySplitter

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this guy is thrilled he didn't have to risk his body more in the playoffs, I bet.

Bill cut bait at the right time. Guy just wasn't "The Patriot Way", for lack of a better term.
 

54thMA

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Collins got paid, which is what he wanted.
The Patriots are going to another Super Bowl, which is what they wanted.
 

Stitch01

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Seems win-win. Pretty clear he didn't fit with what BB wanted to do on defense this year, but wish him the best, he contributed to several good teams here.
 

InstaFace

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One Of The 53 from 2014. Will always wish him well. If what he wanted was $26M guaranteed and the constant gratitude of a low-expectation fanbase for him giving 80% and making a handful of highlight-reel plays every year, then dammit, that's what I want for him.

And yeah, I take that contract, bump it one mil, and offer it to Hightower.
 

dcmissle

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Don't understand any residual bitterness. It boggles my mind given what these guys put at risk. My role model to them is Damien Woody.

He should clear $15 of that $26. I dearly wish for him to somehow live on $5, invest $10MM and live off the income stream, comfortably but not extravagantly, for the rest of his life. I wish that for all these guys.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Don't understand any residual bitterness. It boggles my mind given what these guys put at risk. My role model to them is Damien Woody.

He should clear $15 of that $26. I dearly wish for him to somehow live on $5, invest $10MM and live off the income stream, comfortably but not extravagantly, for the rest of his life. I wish that for all these guys.
I have said it about a thousand times, but sports unions should establish template contracts that pay players as annuities. Agents would never do it because they want to get 10 percent of a very large number today, not 10 percent of a smaller number for the next 50 years.
 

Hagios

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Whoa. I thought Paul DePodesta was in charge and bringing a Moneyball mindset to the Browns? I could see the RG3 signing because he creates a buzz while at the same time implicitly tanking. But I've seen nothing out of the Browns that suggests they are now a well-run organization.
 

Super Nomario

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Whoa. I thought Paul DePodesta was in charge and bringing a Moneyball mindset to the Browns? I could see the RG3 signing because he creates a buzz while at the same time implicitly tanking. But I've seen nothing out of the Browns that suggests they are now a well-run organization.
They have to spend the money somewhere. Collins is a really good player. What are they going to do in free agency that's more effective, given what kind of players are usually in free agency?
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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This seems like a reasonable contract to me. The cap has gone up like 20% in the last two years so this is like getting about 10M per year in 2014-15 when guys like Bowman and Timmons got that kind of money.

The Browns need to add and retain high level talent and they have a ton of cap space. Its hard to see how this move really goes wrong for them, especially given that he is probably quite cuttable after two years. They're unlikely to face a situation in the next two years in which they really need the cap space to add another premium player but that Collins contract is keeping them from doing so.

I would probably give Hightower something in this ballpark - maybe a little less - as long as I could cut bait in 2019 at minimal cost.
 

moondog80

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I have said it about a thousand times, but sports unions should establish template contracts that pay players as annuities. Agents would never do it because they want to get 10 percent of a very large number today, not 10 percent of a smaller number for the next 50 years.
Would that solve anything? Wouldn't players who want to overspend just borrow against the annuity and go broke even more quickly because of the fees and interest?