The East is wide open!

mwonow

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This is a running joke on SoSH. And yet, here's what the standings look like as of now:

Bills 3-1
Pats 2-2
Jets 2-2
Fins 1-2

(note - I'd paste a table from NFL.com but I don't know how tables work any more. Please let me know how to find the new Tableizer!)

History suggests that the Pats will be at the top of the standings at the end of the season, and that the Jets and Bills and Fins will all be talking about draft position. But...history suggests that the Pats don't beat themselves with disorganized/dump play, either, and that's not the case this year, especially in the secondary.

I was 100% certain that the Pats would win the AFC East before the season started, and probably close to that after last week's miracle. Now, I'm probably around 90%.

What is your level of confidence that the Pats will win the division?

EDIT: Fixed Miami, thanks Shoosh!
 
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Old Fart Tree

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Hm. Maybe 75%? That's not overreacting to today/KC, but more that I was probably never higher than 85% to begin with, and I think the Fins are better than they've played, and the Bills look frisky.

I still think the Jets suck.
 

RedOctober3829

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This is a running joke on SoSH. And yet, here's what the standings look like as of now:

Bills 3-1
Pats 2-2
Jets 2-2
Fins 1-3

(note - I'd paste a table from NFL.com but I don't know how tables work any more. Please let me know how to find the new Tableizer!)

History suggests that the Pats will be at the top of the standings at the end of the season, and that the Jets and Bills and Fins will all be talking about draft position. But...history suggests that the Pats don't beat themselves with disorganized/dump play, either, and that's not the case this year, especially in the secondary.

I was 100% certain that the Pats would win the AFC East before the season started, and probably close to that after last week's miracle. Now, I'm probably around 90%.

What is your level of confidence that the Pats will win the division?
A lot hinges on this week. Pats have a short week on the road which leaves them in a pinch. Bills and Jets have seemingly easier games(@Bengals and Browns respectively). If things break wrong, the Patriots could be in 3rd place 2 games back in the division. This is a big game which is something we don't normally say in October. But here we are. There are major flaws in the secondary which must get fixed in the next 72 hours.
 

j44thor

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When was the last time NE trailed in the 4th Q in 3 straight home games?
They are a small miracle away from losing games they have been favored by 9,13.5 and 10.
Should still win the division but for the first time in awhile they will need to earn it, doesn't look like BUF is going to give it to them.
 

Stitch01

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95 percent. Im willing to bet this isn't the worst defense in NFL history. Im not sure they win if Brady gets hurt. But I don't think we are gonna have 50 page threads celebrating going 10-6 and losing to KC in the divisional round and there's a decent chance that's where this is headed
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
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This is a running joke on SoSH. And yet, here's what the standings look like as of now:

Bills 3-1
Pats 2-2
Jets 2-2
Fins 1-3

(note - I'd paste a table from NFL.com but I don't know how tables work any more. Please let me know how to find the new Tableizer!)

History suggests that the Pats will be at the top of the standings at the end of the season, and that the Jets and Bills and Fins will all be talking about draft position. But...history suggests that the Pats don't beat themselves with disorganized/dump play, either, and that's not the case this year, especially in the secondary.

I was 100% certain that the Pats would win the AFC East before the season started, and probably close to that after last week's miracle. Now, I'm probably around 90%.

What is your level of confidence that the Pats will win the division?
Around 99% or so.

It was just three years ago this week after getting pantsed by Kansas City we had dopes asking if the Patriots would be evaluating the QB situation that week.

This too shall pass.

I can't see a team led by Tyrod Taylor, Josh McCown or Jay Cutler beating out one led by Tom Brady.
 

kartvelo

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Well, each of those teams have defensive squads that participate in games as well as offensive, and none of those players you listed play defense.
 

mcpickl

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Well, each of those teams have defensive squads that participate in games as well as offensive, and none of those players you listed play defense.
Yeah, my bad.

I didn't list the entire 53 man rosters of each team, just listed the guys manning the most important position by a mile.

My blunder there.
 

TFisNEXT

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Bills defense looks pretty legit so far. All 3 of those offenses though are pretty crappy. It's still an offensive league so I have a hard time believing the Patriots don't eventually win the division.
 

kartvelo

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Yeah, my bad.
I didn't list the entire 53 man rosters of each team, just listed the guys manning the most important position by a mile.
My blunder there.
There was no need to list the entire rosters, but teams play both offense and defense. Tom Brady is the GOAT, but he can lose (and has lost) to a lesser quarterback whose team's defense is competent when his own team's is not.
 

mauf

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Bills banked a big chunk of luck today; if that “fumble” by Matt Ryan is called an incomplete forward pass (as it should have been), there’s a 50/50 chance they lose that game. They are unquestionably the 2nd best team in the division, but I’m not ready to declare them a serious threat to win it, even if the Pats lose Thursday to drop to 2-3.

The Pats play 5 of their 6 divisional games after Thanksgiving. If the defense is improved by then (even if it’s still fringe), they’ll get a first-round bye (11-5 will probably get it done this year) and we’ll laugh about being worried In early October. If the D is still as bad then as it is now, however, then they’re only a slightly above-average team, and the division will likely come down to those two games against Buffalo.
 

Royal Reader

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In a given season, something like 40% of starting quarterbacks miss at least two games with injury. I don't think that a forty-year old who is getting hit at the rate Brady is should be counted as unusually likely to avoid injury (I feel like advanced age and poor OL play vs gets the ball out quickly is probably a wash). The median injury is three or four games, and I'm pretty sure that 3-4 games without TB12 would be enough to cost them the division. Not really sure how to factor in the "Brady fractures a rib or sprains an ankle or something" that he can play through but hampers his effectiveness such that he's merely above average for the last few games, but it's happened a couple of times. So we'll call that somewhere in the 15-20% region factoring in the small but not negligible chance that Jimmy G steps in and is really really good.

Chance given TB12 health the defense isn't fixed enough to be, say, 24th overall - which would likely be enough for a division title (if most likely the 10-6 and division round loss scenario outlined upthread)? Maybe another 15-20%. It's not probable, but "I just can't get these guys playing the way I want them to" has happened before.

Factor in both, I'd say we're looking at about 70% chance the Pats win the division. Not sure if the online odds i'm looking at have updated on today's results yet, because I can still get $600 on a $50 bet on the Bills right now... one that has updated has the bettor needing to stake $80 to win $10, which is closer to most of you guys than I am.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Bucs on the road on a short week. Falcons, Broncos, Steelers, playing in Mexico City. None of those is better than a coin flip and a couple might be worse if this ship doesn't right itself. Should be a favorite against the Chargers. Bottom line, I'd have to think pretty darned hard right now if you offered me 10-6. If you offered me 10-6 with two wins over Buffalo, I'd take it in a second.
 

Ale Xander

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In a given season, something like 40% of starting quarterbacks miss at least two games with injury. I don't think that a forty-year old who is getting hit at the rate Brady is should be counted as unusually likely to avoid injury (I feel like advanced age and poor OL play vs gets the ball out quickly is probably a wash). The median injury is three or four games, and I'm pretty sure that 3-4 games without TB12 would be enough to cost them the division. Not really sure how to factor in the "Brady fractures a rib or sprains an ankle or something" that he can play through but hampers his effectiveness such that he's merely above average for the last few games, but it's happened a couple of times. So we'll call that somewhere in the 15-20% region factoring in the small but not negligible chance that Jimmy G steps in and is really really good.

Chance given TB12 health the defense isn't fixed enough to be, say, 24th overall - which would likely be enough for a division title (if most likely the 10-6 and division round loss scenario outlined upthread)? Maybe another 15-20%. It's not probable, but "I just can't get these guys playing the way I want them to" has happened before.

Factor in both, I'd say we're looking at about 70% chance the Pats win the division. Not sure if the online odds i'm looking at have updated on today's results yet, because I can still get $600 on a $50 bet on the Bills right now... one that has updated has the bettor needing to stake $80 to win $10, which is closer to most of you guys than I am.
Pliability, my friend, pliability. Read or listen to the TB12 method. I have been brainwashed. You be too.
 

BigSoxFan

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Bucs on the road on a short week. Falcons, Broncos, Steelers, playing in Mexico City. None of those is better than a coin flip and a couple might be worse if this ship doesn't right itself. Should be a favorite against the Chargers. Bottom line, I'd have to think pretty darned hard right now if you offered me 10-6. If you offered me 10-6 with two wins over Buffalo, I'd take it in a second.
You give me 10-6 and a division title and I sign on the dotted line right now.
 

JimD

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FWIW, FiveThirtyEight.com currently has the Patriots as only 51% to win the division and 70% to make the playoffs with a projected record of 9.9-6.1. The Pats are tied with the Steelers for the fourth highest chance to win the Super Bowl at 9% - the Falcons are at 10% and the Chiefs are at 19%.
 

BaseballJones

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How the AFC is shaping up right now...

1. Pit 5-2 - Wins tie break over New England and Kansas City based on best win percentage in conference games.
2. KC 5-2 - Wins tie break over New England based on head-to-head win percentage.
3. NE 5-2
4. Ten 4-3 - Wins tie break over Jacksonville based on head-to-head win percentage.
5. Buf 4-2 - Wins tie break over Miami based on best win percentage in division games.
6. Mia 4-2
7. Jax 4-3
8. Den 3-3
9. Hou 3-3

Long way to go, but KC really has come back to earth. Pit is shaky and the team is having some internal problems. NE is starting to pick up steam. The D has been MUCH better the past three games. The offense is looking solid. Ghost has been terrific.

Let's focus on the top 3 and look at their remaining schedules...

Pit: at Det, at Ind, vs Ten, vs GB, at Cin, vs Bal, vs NE, at Hou, vs Cle
Playing at Detroit COULD be a challenge. Home vs Rodgers-less GB won't be too hard. At Cin and vs Bal always seem to be the kinds of games that could go either way, divisional game and all. At Hou could be interesting. But I don't see more than a couple of losses here. One of them HAS to be against NE.

KC: vs Den, at Dal, at NYG, vs Buf, at NYJ, vs Oak, vs LAC, vs Mia, at Den. Two Denver games suddenly look fairly routine, though maybe that last one at Denver might be tough if Denver's offense has gotten it figured out by then. At Dallas, vs Buffalo could be tough. Still, again, I don't see more than a couple of losses here for them.

NE: vs LAC, at Den, at Oak (Mex City), vs Mia, at Buf, at Mia, at Pit, vs Buf, vs NYJ. At Denver always gives NE fits, though I'm hoping their offense is still a mess at that point. The Mexico City game could be tough if Oakland's offense is playing well. Buffalo on the road should be tough. The Pats, I believe, will need to go 7-2 over this stretch, with one of the wins obviously being at Pittsburgh. Maybe, depending on tiebreakers, they'd need to go 8-1.
 

loshjott

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Pitt has the easiest schedule going forward, IMO. They have the inside track for #1 seed.

And no easy walk to the AFCE title this year for the Pats. Given the Pats' crazy back heavy division schedule and the improved play of everyone else, this will go down to the last 1-2 weeks to decide.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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I'm not sure how useful this really is, but it's there to play with. I can't tell, but it appears to treat every game as 50/50. They've got the Patriots at 24% to get the #1 seed (which intuitively sounds about right).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/upshot/new-england-patriots-nfl-playoff-picture.html#event=seed1

Assuming the Pats beat the Steelers, they have a 39% chance of getting the #1 seed.

The biggest single non-Patriots game impact appears to be the Radiers @ KC game, which makes sense due to KC's head-to-head victory over the Pats. Give Oakland that game and the Patriots are at 45%.
 

johnmd20

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Pitt has the easiest schedule going forward, IMO. They have the inside track for #1 seed.

And no easy walk to the AFCE title this year for the Pats. Given the Pats' crazy back heavy division schedule and the improved play of everyone else, this will go down to the last 1-2 weeks to decide.
The Steelers looked incredible against Cinncy, which is very easy to do. I'm not convinced they have the inside track by any means.
 

loshjott

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The Steelers looked incredible against Cinncy, which is very easy to do. I'm not convinced they have the inside track by any means.
They get to look incredible against Cincy again. And against Indy and Cle and Tenn and Balt and Rodgers less GB. If they win at Detroit they could easily be sitting at 2 losses still when the Pats come to town.
 

Super Nomario

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They get to look incredible against Cincy again. And against Indy and Cle and Tenn and Balt and Rodgers less GB. If they win at Detroit they could easily be sitting at 2 losses still when the Pats come to town.
They could, but this is also a team that lost to the Bears, barely beat the Browns, and got smoked by the Jaguars. Their best is as good as anybody, but they are not that consistent week-to-week.
 

johnmd20

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They could, but this is also a team that lost to the Bears, barely beat the Browns, and got smoked by the Jaguars. Their best is as good as anybody, but they are not that consistent week-to-week.
Exactly, these things are so up in the air right now, not a single team in the NFL has the inside track to anything. The Pats were moribund two weeks ago. Now they are on fire. Two weeks ago, Rothlisberger said, "I might not have it anymore," and now they are the top dog? KC was rolling and crushing everything and now everyone is saying, "Alex Smith is a game manager," again.

It's fair to say whatever the playoff situation looks like today will have no relation to what it's going to be on Christmas.
 

BaseballJones

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If the Pats can win in Pittsburgh, it makes it all that much harder for Pittsburgh to get the 1 seed
And KC too, because they'd no longer have the H2H edge on the Patriots in a 3-way tie between Pit, KC, and NE. It may not come into play, but it might.
 

rodderick

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They get to look incredible against Cincy again. And against Indy and Cle and Tenn and Balt and Rodgers less GB. If they win at Detroit they could easily be sitting at 2 losses still when the Pats come to town.
These are the Steelers. They struggle against teams they are supposed to beat handily, it's been their MO ever since Tomlin got there.
 

Old Fart Tree

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I've always thought that 7 games was a touch too early to think about this, but hey, whatever floats your boat.
 

snowmanny

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Right now the AFC East looks like the best division in football.
They are eight games above 500 combined, and the NFC Central, at plus 3, is a distant second.

Lest you think this is a scheduling quirk, consider this:
538's average Elo score for the AFC East is 1546, best in the NFL. In second place (1535) is the NFC South, whom the Pats, Jets et al are matched up against. Second in the AFC is the West Division, the other AFC East match this year.

538's total playoff odds percentage for the four AFC East teams is 186%, far ahead of the second place division (NFC Central @ 159%) and the pre-season darling AFC West (134%). In other words, 538 feels it's way more likely a Wild Card comes from the AFC East than from any other division in the NFL.

WTF happened???
 
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dbn

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Below is the current state of my who-beat-whom iterative ranking, with teams ranked 31 (best) to 0 (worst) non-integerly. AFCE teams bolded. Team, rank, teams beaten -- teams beaten by. Indeed, the division looks deeper than it has been in recent past.

Usual caveats:
Only relies on who beat whom. Amongst the many things not considered are home-field, margin of victory, injury status, and trend. The idea is to look at records purposefully excluding those things to give an unbiased view of their results based on opponents results. It's left to the reader to interpret how much/little it means when including all of the many other things to consider.


PHI 31.0 WAS NYG LAC ARI CAR WAS -- KC
KC 30.0 NE PHI LAC WAS HOU -- PIT OAK
NE 29.4 NO HOU TB NYJ ATL -- KC CAR
NO 28.5 CAR MIA DET GB -- MIN NE
MIN 28.1 NO TB CHI GB BAL -- PIT DET
PIT 24.9 CLE MIN BAL KC CIN -- CHI JAC
MIA 24.4 LAC TEN ATL NYJ -- NYJ NO
CAR 24.3 SF BUF NE DET -- NO PHI CHI
GB 22.9 SEA CIN CHI DAL -- ATL MIN NO
BUF 22.4 NYJ DEN ATL TB -- CAR CIN
ATL 22.4 CHI GB DET -- BUF MIA NE
WAS 21.0 LAR OAK SF -- PHI KC PHI
DET 20.2 ARI NYG MIN -- ATL CAR NO
CHI 19.9 PIT BAL CAR -- ATL TB GB MIN
LAR 19.8 IND SF DAL JAC ARI -- WAS SEA
JAC 19.3 HOU BAL PIT IND -- TEN NYJ LAR
LAC 18.4 NYG OAK DEN -- DEN MIA KC PHI
HOU 17.9 CIN TEN CLE -- JAC NE KC
NYJ 17.6 MIA JAC CLE -- BUF OAK NE MIA
SEA 17.3 SF IND LAR NYG -- GB TEN
OAK 17.3 TEN NYJ KC -- WAS DEN BAL LAC
TEN 16.9 JAC SEA IND CLE -- OAK HOU MIA
DEN 16.4 LAC DAL OAK -- BUF NYG LAC
BAL 15.4 CIN CLE OAK -- JAC PIT CHI MIN
TB 15.1 CHI NYG -- MIN NE ARI BUF
DAL 13.8 NYG ARI SF -- DEN LAR GB
ARI 13.0 IND SF TB -- DET DAL PHI LAR
CIN 12.6 CLE BUF -- BAL HOU GB PIT
NYG 7.7 DEN -- DAL DET PHI TB LAC SEA
IND 5.6 CLE SF -- LAR ARI SEA TEN JAC
SF 0.6 -- CAR SEA LAR ARI IND WAS DAL
CLE 0.0 -- PIT BAL IND CIN NYJ HOU TEN
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Right now the AFC East looks like the best division in football.
They are eight games above 500 combined, and the NFC Central, at plus 3, is a distant second.

Lest you think this is a scheduling quirk, consider this:
538's average Elo score for the AFC East is 1546, best in the NFL. In second place (1535) is the NFC South, whom the Pats, Jets et al are matched up against. Second in the AFC is the West Division, the other AFC East match this year.

538's total playoff odds percentage for the four AFC East teams is 186%, far ahead of the second place division (NFC Central @ 159%) and the pre-season darling AFC West (134%). In other words, 538 feels it's way more likely a Wild Card comes from the AFC East than from any other division in the NFL.

WTF happened???
There is no doubt that there are and will be still, plenty of people who claim that the AFC east is a weak division.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Below is the current state of my who-beat-whom iterative ranking, with teams ranked 31 (best) to 0 (worst) non-integerly. AFCE teams bolded. Team, rank, teams beaten -- teams beaten by. Indeed, the division looks deeper than it has been in recent past.
Love this, dbn.
 

AB in DC

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AFC East only looks strong if you focus on W-L record. Based on other metrics, they're a whole lot worse.

SRS: +2.4 (5th of 8)
DVOA: -24% (8th of 8)
 

pokey_reese

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In trying to wrap our heads around the Steelers, and rankings this year in general, I think that part of the problem is that the public is bad at adjusting to changes to our traditional narratives, i.e., who is good and who is bad. We see that PITT lost to CHI and JAX and think that they must suck, but the reality is that we are just slow to realized that those teams, along with the Rams, and maybe the Jets, maybe aren't as bad as we assumed that they would be based on previous years (at least for JAX). As the FootballOutsiders weekly update explained also, W/L doesn't take into account how teams won/lost, while DVOA does, and in this case, PITT mainly lost to CHI because the Bears improbably recovered 6 out of 7 fumbles in the game. For similar reasons, the Pats didn't get much of a bump in their metrics because while the score was lopsided, NE basically doesn't get much credit for the missed/block FGs, or the 4th-down stop, because the Falcons actually had a higher yard/play average and their expected points was much higher than the actual.
 

dbn

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In trying to wrap our heads around the Steelers, and rankings this year in general, I think that part of the problem is that the public is bad at adjusting to changes to our traditional narratives, i.e., who is good and who is bad. We see that PITT lost to CHI and JAX and think that they must suck, but the reality is that we are just slow to realized that those teams, along with the Rams, and maybe the Jets, maybe aren't as bad as we assumed that they would be based on previous years (at least for JAX). As the FootballOutsiders weekly update explained also, W/L doesn't take into account how teams won/lost, while DVOA does, and in this case, PITT mainly lost to CHI because the Bears improbably recovered 6 out of 7 fumbles in the game. For similar reasons, the Pats didn't get much of a bump in their metrics because while the score was lopsided, NE basically doesn't get much credit for the missed/block FGs, or the 4th-down stop, because the Falcons actually had a higher yard/play average and their expected points was much higher than the actual.
This is a very good post. The first part is what I think about when I consider why my silly little who-beat-whom iterative ranking thing has some value. The second part is what I think about when I consider what it doesn't do at all. Anyway, both are good points that deserve thought.

edit: the first part sometimes works the other way around, too. A team has a good record, having beaten teams that were expected to be good, but when you look at who beat whom you see that their record isn't as impressive as it first seemed.
 

pokey_reese

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This is a very good post. The first part is what I think about when I consider why my silly little who-beat-whom iterative ranking thing has some value. The second part is what I think about when I consider what it doesn't do at all. Anyway, both are good points that deserve thought.

edit: the first part sometimes works the other way around, too. A team has a good record, having beaten teams that were expected to be good, but when you look at who beat whom you see that their record isn't as impressive as it first seemed.
I think that's a big part of why your system works. We look at teams like LA, JAX, and HOU and tell ourselves that they can't be as good as their record, but those wins still count, and so teams that beat them beat 3- to 5-win teams, however you slice it.
 

AB in DC

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After this week's results, does anyone still think the AFC East is one of the best divisions in football?

Looking at combined SRS, it's now the second-worst division overall.:

NFCS +16.7
NFCN +11.4
NFCE +4.8
NFCW -0.9
AFCW -4.8
AFCS -5.7
AFCE -7.9
AFCN -11.2

Interesting that all four AFC divisions are worse than the four NFC divisions. I wonder if that's ever happened before.
 

tims4wins

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There is a decent chance the Pats will have a chance to wrap up the division in game 12 / week 13 at Buffalo... Who saw that coming?
 

dbn

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After this week's results, does anyone still think the AFC East is one of the best divisions in football?

Looking at combined SRS, it's now the second-worst division overall.:

NFCS +16.7
NFCN +11.4
NFCE +4.8
NFCW -0.9
AFCW -4.8
AFCS -5.7
AFCE -7.9
AFCN -11.2

Interesting that all four AFC divisions are worse than the four NFC divisions. I wonder if that's ever happened before.
As far as who-beat-whom (see post #32 above) division-cumulative score, the AFCE is a bit (almost 1-sigma) better than average:

NFCS 96.6
NFCN 88.5
AFCE 78.9
NFCE 65.7
AFCW 63.2
AFCS 53.7
NFCW 53.0
AFCN 48.8

average = 68.5, ssdev = 17.7

Of course and again, this doesn't consider how teams are currently trending, so your post is very relevant.

edit: here are the current numbers:
NO 31.0 CAR MIA DET GB CHI TB BUF -- MIN NE
CAR 28.0 SF BUF NE DET TB ATL MIA -- NO PHI CHI
NE 27.9 NO HOU TB NYJ ATL LAC DEN -- KC CAR
MIN 27.3 NO TB CHI GB BAL CLE WAS -- PIT DET
PHI 27.0 WAS NYG LAC ARI CAR WAS SF DEN -- KC
PIT 24.5 CLE MIN BAL KC CIN DET IND -- CHI JAC
KC 23.7 NE PHI LAC WAS HOU DEN -- PIT OAK DAL
ATL 22.5 CHI GB DET NYJ DAL -- BUF MIA NE CAR
GB 22.2 SEA CIN CHI DAL CHI -- ATL MIN NO DET
DET 21.0 ARI NYG MIN GB CLE -- ATL CAR NO PIT
LAR 20.7 IND SF DAL JAC ARI NYG HOU -- WAS SEA
BUF 19.8 NYJ DEN ATL TB OAK -- CAR CIN NYJ NO
JAC 19.7 HOU BAL PIT IND CIN LAC -- TEN NYJ LAR
WAS 18.1 LAR OAK SF SEA -- PHI KC PHI DAL MIN
CHI 18.0 PIT BAL CAR -- ATL TB GB MIN NO GB
SEA 17.8 SF IND LAR NYG HOU ARI -- GB TEN WAS
TEN 17.5 JAC SEA IND CLE BAL CIN -- OAK HOU MIA
MIA 17.1 LAC TEN ATL NYJ -- NYJ NO BAL OAK CAR
DAL 17.1 NYG ARI SF WAS KC -- DEN LAR GB ATL
TB 15.0 CHI NYG NYJ -- MIN NE ARI BUF CAR NO
OAK 14.9 TEN NYJ KC MIA -- WAS DEN BAL LAC BUF
BAL 14.7 CIN CLE OAK MIA -- JAC PIT CHI MIN TEN
NYJ 14.1 MIA JAC CLE BUF -- BUF OAK NE MIA ATL TB
ARI 12.4 IND SF TB SF -- DET DAL PHI LAR SEA
LAC 12.3 NYG OAK DEN -- DEN MIA KC PHI NE JAC
DEN 12.3 LAC DAL OAK -- BUF NYG LAC KC PHI NE
HOU 10.5 CIN TEN CLE -- JAC NE KC SEA IND LAR
CIN 9.6 CLE BUF IND -- BAL HOU GB PIT JAC TEN
IND 6.0 CLE SF HOU -- LAR ARI SEA TEN JAC CIN PIT
NYG 3.6 DEN -- DAL DET PHI TB LAC SEA LAR SF
SF 2.1 NYG -- CAR SEA LAR ARI IND WAS DAL PHI ARI
CLE 0.0 -- PIT BAL IND CIN NYJ HOU TEN MIN DET
 
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SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
5,013
Pittsburgh, PA
If I'm doing this right, in order to clinch in week 13, we would need to win our next 3 games (including week 13 @ BUF), Buffalo would need to lose those three weeks (@LAC, @KC, NE), and the Dolphins would need to lose at least one of the non-NE games (vTB, vDEN). If we lose a game, or Buffalo wins a game, or Miami wins both of those games, and the Patriots cannot clinch in week 13.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
If I'm doing this right, in order to clinch in week 13, we would need to win our next 3 games (including week 13 @ BUF), Buffalo would need to lose those three weeks (@LAC, @KC, NE), and the Dolphins would need to lose at least one of the non-NE games (vTB, vDEN). If we lose a game, or Buffalo wins a game, or Miami wins both of those games, and the Patriots cannot clinch in week 13.
All those scenarios are entirely plausible, of course. Not just the Pats winning all three, but you could totally see Buffalo losing at the Chargers and Chiefs before losing to the Pats. And it's no stretch to see Miami losing to either Tampa or Denver.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,069
Hingham, MA
All those scenarios are entirely plausible, of course. Not just the Pats winning all three, but you could totally see Buffalo losing at the Chargers and Chiefs before losing to the Pats. And it's no stretch to see Miami losing to either Tampa or Denver.
Exactly. Chances are it won't happen, but it's not some crazy scenario.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,850
I posted this elsewhere, but why? Because of the Saints game? Ignoring the rest of the season when he's been pretty good.

You have a team sitting in the last WC spot and you're dropping Taylor to start a 5th round rookie on the road against a mediocre team that might be without their starting QB, in a game you likely had a decent chance to win? And that team will have Joey Bosa in Peterman's face all day?

Okay.
 

Curt S Loew

SoSH Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2001
6,515
Shantytown
I posted this elsewhere, but why? Because of the Saints game? Ignoring the rest of the season when he's been pretty good.

You have a team sitting in the last WC spot and you're dropping Taylor to start a 5th round rookie on the road against a mediocre team that might be without their starting QB, in a game you likely had a decent chance to win? And that team will have Joey Bosa in Peterman's face all day?

Okay.
They obviously really like him and Mo Lewis wasn't available to knock out Taylor.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
6,619
CT
Bills forgot they were supposed to be tanking this year. If you’re a player on that team, how do you take the rest of this season seriously?

Bills made some nice moves to set themselves up in the draft the next year or two, start to actually overachieve and are in the playoff hunt, then decide to completely torpedo the season.

Glad Miami still has two games against them.
 

JohnnyK

Member
SoSH Member
May 8, 2007
1,941
Wolfern, Austria
I posted this elsewhere, but why? Because of the Saints game? Ignoring the rest of the season when he's been pretty good.
Bills fans on Reddit (so take this with a grain of salt) are saying that the numbers don't tell the whole story and that he has poor vision and is mostly checking down so his completion percentage etc. are up.