The Dubs 2015-16: chasing history

[nattysez]

45 straight at home for the Warriors. They have not looked like themselves the past two games. Now they've got three games in four nights starting on Wednesday. For all the people saying that dumping Iguodala along with Barnes so they can sign Durant is no big deal, they certainly seem to suffer when he can't play.

 

[DJnVa]

For all the people saying that dumping Iguodala along with Barnes so they can sign Durant is no big deal, they certainly seem to suffer when he can't play.

Well yes. But if he was replaced by Durant that would likely alleviate that.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

45 straight at home for the Warriors. They have not looked like themselves the past two games. Now they've got three games in four nights starting on Wednesday. For all the people saying that dumping Iguodala along with Barnes so they can sign Durant is no big deal, they certainly seem to suffer when he can't play.

Draymond has been sick and ineffective the past two games.....really he shouldn't have been out there. It isn't Iggy alone but when you take both he and Green out of the lineup it changes the makeup of the team considerably.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Well yes. But if he was replaced by Durant that would likely alleviate that.

Show your work!

 

[coremiller]

They really haven't been that good as a team since the All-Star break, but Curry is playing so well on his own that he's covering up a lot of sins. Since the break, Curry is averaging 35.7 ppg with a 3P% of .496 on 12.2 3PAs per game (!!!). But the rest of the team is kind of sleepwalking through this part of the season. Whether it's just a blip in a long season or a sign of real vulnerability is hard to say.

 

[Devizier]

Steph Curry's season might be the best in modern basketball history, right? The only comparisons that I can think of is the last pre-Miami season of Lebron and Jordan in the 80's.

 

[coremiller]

It might be the best offensive season in recent history, but while no longer a bad defender Curry is not a game changer on that end, so guys that were almost as good offensively but more valuable defenders may have been better. Jordan's 87-88 (lead the league in scoring averaging 35 ppg on .603 TS% AND won Defensive Player of the Year) or 88-89 (32.5ppg/8rb/8ast/2.5 stls/.614 TS% with great defense) are hard to top, or one of Olajuwon or David Robinson's best years may have been better just because the defensive value (esp. back then) a great defensive big man could add was huge.

FWIW, Curry's Win Shares/48 right now is .330, which would be the 2nd best mark in NBA history, behind only Kareem's 1971-72 (34.8 ppg/16.6 rb) in a watered down league when the ABA was stealing many of the best players. Obv win shares has lots of issues, is hardly definitive of anything and should be taken with several very large grains of salt, but it does suggest that Curry is having an all-time great season (not that we really needed to be told that).

The other issue is the minutes. Curry is averaging only 34 mpg, which is pretty low for a great player. Some of that is the Warriors having lots of blowouts (although there haven't been too many of those lately), and some of it is era (the game is faster and more intense now, esp. on the defensive side and teams are smarter about workload and injury prevention, so nobody plays 40+ mpg any more during the regular season). But it does mean that a weaker player has to pick up those extra minutes.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

It might be the best offensive season in recent history, but while no longer a bad defender Curry is not a game changer on that end, so guys that were almost as good offensively but more valuable defenders may have been better. Jordan's 87-88 (lead the league in scoring averaging 35 ppg on .603 TS% AND won Defensive Player of the Year) or 88-89 (32.5ppg/8rb/8ast/2.5 stls/.614 TS% with great defense) are hard to top, or one of Olajuwon or David Robinson's best years may have been better just because the defensive value (esp. back then) a great defensive big man could add was huge.

The game has changed especially for perimeter defenders since Jordan's days. Curry is among the best PG defenders in the league and while it is much more crucial to have defensive stoppers at the 2/3. This is due to the job description of nearly all non-Curry 1's being that of a distributor and not a go-to scorer he has had some amazing defensive performances against the top PG's if anyone is paying attention to this aspect of his game.

 

[Kliq]

Curry is an improved defender, but I don't think he is anything above average. He is the worst defender in the starting lineup and is backed up by four above average to elite defender.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

A PG's defensive impact, positive or negative, is typically far less pronounced that of a wing or a big. Still: by defensive RPM, Curry is currently the #4 PG in the league (after Rubio, Lowry and Marcus Smart. just ahead of CP3). He's an excellent defender for his position, both by the numbers and the eye test (fights through screens, is smart and aware, forces steals, etc.)

 

[coremiller]

Curry and Draymond present a classic collinearity problem for RPM because they share so many minutes. Curry and Green have played 1803 minutes together; Curry has only 203 non-Green minutes and Green has only 300 non-Curry minutes. I suspect RPM overrates both Curry's defense and Green's offense as a result.

Cury isn't even that great by the eye test. He gets a lot of steals because he's extremely aggressive, sometimes overly so, and he can get away with that because the Warriors' help defense and rim protection is excellent. He's rarely guarding the opposing team's best guard, and when he does he almost never shuts down that guy. Off the top of my head I can recall John Wall, Kyle Lowry, and Chris Paul all having big games against the Warriors in the last year or so.

 

[chilidawg]

Isn't co-linearity exactly the thing RPM is supposed to correct for, since it adjusts for the quality of the players you're playing with? Thus Curry's outcomes are penalized for playing with highly rated defender like Green. I don't know that this is the case, but that's my understanding.

 

[coremiller]

Yes, but when two players have ~90% of their minutes shared, it's much harder to accurately adjust for teammate effects because you have a small sample of non-shared minutes.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Cury isn't even that great by the eye test. He gets a lot of steals because he's extremely aggressive, sometimes overly so, and he can get away with that because the Warriors' help defense and rim protection is excellent. He's rarely guarding the opposing team's best guard, and when he does he almost never shuts down that guy. Off the top of my head I can recall John Wall, Kyle Lowry, and Chris Paul all having big games against the Warriors in the last year or so.

So three of the games best offensive guards had big games under today's highly advantageous rules for perimeter players? The Wizards game I attended in DC last year was the night Curry opened my eyes as a terrific defender despite having to carry the offensive load. He put the clamps on Wall all night, didn't allow him to get to his spot, stripped him twice and generally frustrated the hell out of him.

 

[bowiac]

Isn't co-linearity exactly the thing RPM is supposed to correct for, since it adjusts for the quality of the players you're playing with? Thus Curry's outcomes are penalized for playing with highly rated defender like Green. I don't know that this is the case, but that's my understanding.

As coremiller notes, it's tough to disentangle players who play together 90% of the time. That said, this is part of why we have RAPM and RPM, which use a 2nd year of data to handle players with severe collinearity issues. RPM also uses box-score stats to help, which don't have these issues. Steph grades well there, since every box-score metric loves steals. Steph was an average defender in 2014 by RPM, before Green became a starter. He's improved since then by RPM, but he may have simply improved as a defender.

Finally, being a good offensive player helps your defensive value as well, for a simple reason: when your team scores, you get to defend in the halfcourt, so it's easier to prevent buckets. Good offense begets good defense.

 

[chilidawg]

Thanks, learned something there. Also found out the collinear is actually a word, in spite of what spell check tries to tell me.

I've always thought good offense begets good defense, for the reason you point out, and vice versa. Anyone ever try to quantify that?

 

[Kliq]

Curry, like Reggie Miller before him, benefits from being a tremendous shooter that is constantly running through picks and different actions by his teammates. Guarding Curry is an exhausting experience because you have to fight through as many as four or five picks on a given possession. I imagine that has some effect on his opponents offensive output at the other end.

 

[nattysez]

The passing last night was sublime.

 

[coremiller]

They also got Utah to bite on a decoy Steph Curry half court shot (!!!), leaving Barbosa wide open for a buzzer-beating layup at the end of the 3rd quarter. I've never seen that before.

 

[Schnerres]

So tonight is the 1st clash in SA.
Last Warriors win in SA: 108-94, February 97 with Latrell Sprewell leading the Ws in scoring (32p in 46mins!!) and Tim Duncan still in college.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/199702140SAS.html

How will the Warriors treat this game, considering it´s on the 2nd night of a back-to-back against the Spurs?

Both teams will meet again twice:
Apr,7th: Spurs@Warriors
Apr, 10th: Warriors@Spurs (Warriors play Apr,9th @Memphis, no back-to-backs for Spurs in these cases)

Do the Warriors try to stop that huge losing streak before playoff time?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Kerr has already intimated that he will sit a couple players. It's the Warriors 6th game in 10 days and 9th in past 14 with travel. Very tough stretch, if roles were reversed Pop would almost certainly sit everyone especially with this being a national game. That's just how he rolls.

 

[RedSoxinIsrael]

So tonight is the 1st clash in SA.


Do the Warriors try to stop that huge losing streak before playoff time?

Well, they won there in Game 2 of the 2013 playoff series, so this is regular-season only.

 

[jon abbey]

GS pulls one out in MIN late, so they are now 63-7 and have to go 10-2 to break the record. 9 of those 12 games are at home, the only three road games left are at Utah. and then at Memphis and San Antonio in the last week of the season when all three of those teams will likely be locked into playoff position.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

GS pulls one out in MIN late, so they are now 63-7 and have to go 10-2 to break the record. 9 of those 12 games are at home, the only three road games left are at Utah. and then at Memphis and San Antonio in the last week of the season when all three of those teams will likely be locked into playoff position.

There ain't no rest for the wicked anytime soon. The Warriors don't play on two days off again until prior to their final regular season game. They seem to be running on fumes right now having played 10 games in 15 days while also being shorthanded.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Well, they won there in Game 2 of the 2013 playoff series, so this is regular-season only.

Almost swept the first two in SA that year, but for an epic squander of a 16 point lead with under 4 minutes left in Game One.

Makes it even more insane that the Warriors have now won 109 straight games in which they've led by 15 points or more at any point in the game.

Spurs didn't get the memo last night, I guess, coughing up a 23-point early lead. That loss (and the Ws concurrent tight win) probably helps the push for 73 wins, as it increased the likelihood that the #1 seed will be out of reach in the next two match-ups between the teams, which increases the likelihood of Pop effectively conceding the games by resting key guys.

Of course, if the Ws do clinch the #1 seed early, I wouldn't put it past Kerr to inflict some resting of his own. He's been pretty open about how physically and mentally exhausted the team has seemed of late. 73 wins would be nice, but a round 70 (that is, a modest 7-5 from here on out) with a well-rested core for the playoffs might be nicer.

 

[DJnVa]

Cool story about Nike losing Steph Curry to Under Armor and how (at the time) little used bench player Kent Bazemore had everything to do with it.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15047018/how-nike-lost-stephen-curry-armour

In turn, UA "rewarded" Bazemore's alma mater, Old Dominion, with a contract paying them nearly 7x what Nike did.

 

[dbn]

Sorry if this has been or is being discussed elsewhere - I'm not in this forum very often any more - but there is a chance that, before the post-season even begins, one of SA and GS will dethrone the 1972/3 Celtics as the best team (winning %-wise) to not win the championship.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Back on Steph's D: Coach Nick at BB Breakdown calls Steph an elite defender, possibly the best in the league at his position.

Meanwhile, the 538 crew estimates the chances of the Ws winning 73+ games at 66%.

Eye-test, from this fanboy: they're dragging lately, especially Steph. Iguodala's prolonged absence has hurt their lineup flexibility, especially when Livingston has to sit as he did v Philly. Barnes looks like he still hasn't fully recovered from the high ankle sprain that felled him early in the season. On the bright side, Klay's had possibly his best stretch as a Warrior the past few games (WC player of the week) to pick up the slack for the MVP; and the team as a whole has consistently executed better than their opponents with games in the balance. Slightly worse late-game execution and they could easily be, say, 60-13 instead of 66-7. (Their Pythag record is 61-12).

With the #1 seed basically sewn up (5 games up in the loss column with 9 to play) I still wouldn't mind if Kerr pulled a Pop and inflicted some wholesale late-season resting, and they finished 70-12 or 71-11. At the same time, it's clear the team wants the record pretty bad; and I don't think Kerr particularly wants to get in the way of them. Stay tuned...

 

[HomeRunBaker]

1) I agree with Steph being in the upper echelon of PG defenders. The games I've seen him live confirmed this to me and his actions/awareness off the ball are outstanding.

2) It would be amazing if the Warriors DIDN'T look spent right now. They have played 13 games in the past 21 days while being shorthanded without Iguodala and Ezeli (and without Bogut for a few as well).

3) Despite the schedule and injuries working against them right now they coasted in 3 of their last 4 games (all wins) vs Philly, Dallas, and Minnesota. The one recent game they have had to get up for was versus the Clippers and the Dubs smoked then by 16.

 

[troparra]

Anybody read this? Warriors light years ahead of everybody else:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/03/magazine/what-happened-when-venture-capitalists-took-over-the-golden-state-warriors.html?_r=0

Some excerpts:

But Lacob won’t accept that what the Warriors have achieved is a product of anything but a master plan. “The great, great venture capitalists who built company after company, that’s not an accident,” he said. “And none of this is an accident, either.”

“We’ve crushed them on the basketball court, and we’re going to for years because of the way we’ve built this team,” he said. But what really set the franchise apart, he said, was the way it operated as a business. “We’re light-years ahead of probably every other team in structure, in planning, in how we’re going to go about things,” he said. “We’re going to be a handful for the rest of the N.B.A. to deal with for a long time.”

But as Lacob sees it, Curry’s dominance on the court, though essential, is inextricable from everything else he’s done with the franchise over the last few years, from knocking down the office walls to the Ellis trade. “It’s not just Steph Curry,” he told me once. “It’s architecting a team, a style of play, the way they all play together. It’s all extremely thought through.”

Sounds like an arrogant "organizations win championships" type thing going on, but I don't think Lacob can blame a misquote.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I mean - personnel wise they've killed it but there is no dominant team right now if David Kahn hadn't passed on Curry. Sometimes it takes some luck to get going and then good organizations are able to sustain and build on that. But he's right about one thing - I think the Warriors are going to be elite for a long time unless they get some bad injury luck.

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

Anybody read this? Warriors light years ahead of everybody else:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/03/magazine/what-happened-when-venture-capitalists-took-over-the-golden-state-warriors.html?_r=0

Some excerpts:




Sounds like an arrogant "organizations win championships" type thing going on, but I don't think Lacob can blame a misquote.

I love watching them play, but agreed. O' well, I guess they've earned it.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Yeah, the organization got incredibly lucky, they have Curry on the best deal in the league, and it's all because MIlwaukee was scared of his ankles.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

They're probably still going to get the record, and I hope they do. They're an awesome team. But that was wild.

 

[axx]

They have to go 5-1 to finish the season to get it; and they have to play San Antonio and Memphis twice each, and once on a back-to-back. I bet San Antonio tanks the first meeting so if they beat Portland and Minnesota they have a good shot at it but tying the record seems more realistic.

 

[Al Zarilla]

They have to go 5-1 to finish the season to get it; and they have to play San Antonio and Memphis twice each, and once on a back-to-back. I bet San Antonio tanks the first meeting so if they beat Portland and Minnesota they have a good shot at it but tying the record seems more realistic.

Memphis is riddled with injuries, with Conley out until the playoffs and Gasol until next year, I think. They have some other guys injured too and one analyst said something like 'my God, they're down to having to start Matt Barnes and Tony Allen.' San Antonio probably gets way up for one of the meetings, though.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

HRB and SRN have said this in the forum before but the Dubs look gassed. To be clear, this doesn't diminish what the Celtics did last night because from their two meetings its clear Boston is an extremely difficult match -up for Golden State.

That said, Kerr should think about overriding the teams goal of the record and limit the starters minutes ovet the next few weeks. Andrew Bogut should be placed in bubble wrap until the playoffs start. And Draymond Green needs a day off too. What good is the record if you get bounced in the playoffs because your best players are hurt or simply gassed?

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

I think the Warriors need to go for the wins record. The first round of the NBA playoffs drags on for two weeks, with two or three days between games being the norm. Also, since the W's are bound to sweep the 8-seed, they'll probably have a full 8 days or more to rest up before the second round commences. They'll be fine. Floor it, and make history.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Yeah, Gary St. Jean and one of the other local analysts had a story about Kerr coming in yesterday and telling Draymond he needed a day off and it was tonight (Cs) game. Dray immediately growled back and the April Fools prank stopped right there. Kerr went on to say that the guys that "need" rest are getting it, viz. Iguadala, Ezele, and they'll have real fresh legs for the playoffs. He also talked about all the days off before and during the first round, implying Steph, Klay, etc. won't get a lot of extra rest for the rest of the regular season. One other thing, early-mid season when the Ws were blowing out so many teams, Curry was given a lot of fourth quarters off. Still, he may be a bit gassed, but they are going for the record, no doubt. I hope Steph doesn't drop under any of the 50-40-90 stats, not sure if he cares much though.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I hope they get the record. These guys are fun to watch and I'll root for them against anyone but the Cs

 

[Al Zarilla]

Portland came out smokin' hot, but Warriors can shoot too. High scoring game so far.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Splish-splash I was takin' a bath.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Curry hates when Draymond nails him with water during post-game interviews. So watch what he did to Dray's loaded weapon last night...

pic.twitter.com/eeTXIlu2CF
Curry no-look behind back, knocks water from Draymond

I mean, in case anyone needed proof he isn't human. That's straight up Daredevil sh*t...

 

[soxin6]

Their chances of 73 wins are almost gone after blowing tonight's game to the Twolves. I had thought they were going to pull it off, but they looked bad tonight.

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

Cashed. If I'm Kerr, everyone rests/sits for the remainder of the season.
Last couple of games defined by dropping simple passes, inability to grab loose balls, etc. Fatigue meet pressure.

 

[nattysez]

Cashed. If I'm Kerr, everyone rests/sits for the remainder of the season.
Last couple of games defined by dropping simple passes, inability to grab loose balls, etc. Fatigue meet pressure.

Unfortunately, they cannot completely spike the rest of the season, as SA is now only 3.5 behind them for first place in the division. Their magic number to clinch home court throughout the playoffs remains 2. That's why the loss last night is particularly galling -- they actually have more to play for than just 73, which makes blowing a 15-point lead all the more irritating.

 

[Sprowl]

The Spurs-vs-Warriors is like watching George Seurat play Paintball. Steph Curry's ballhandling the ball is poetry in motion, the most orgasmic basketball I've had in decades.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I may be proven wrong as soon as Sunday but for as good as the Spurs are, I think the Warriors are an extremely tough match-up for them.

If these two meet in the playoffs, I suspect most people would expect it to go seven but I am not so sure about that. Aldridge struggles against the Warriors (Golden State has held him to his lowest FG% over the course of his career) and a large part of that is Draymond Green who gives him fits. Leonard is going to get his and their original big three can run in spurts but unless Mills and Diaw are having their best games (i.e. the Spurs play their best game), the Warriors, ball movement, tempo and depth seem to be too much.

In short, I think that if the Warriors had a choice between playing the Spurs in a seven game series or the Celtics in seven, they should prefer San Antonio simply based on the match-ups. Of course, I am not impartial here and, will - especially on Sunday given what is at stake for both the Celtics franchise and the Warriors current team - be rooting my ass off for a W's victory.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I may be proven wrong as soon as Sunday but for as good as the Spurs are, I think the Warriors are an extremely tough match-up for them.

If these two meet in the playoffs, I suspect most people would expect it to go seven but I am not so sure about that. Aldridge struggles against the Warriors (Golden State has held him to his lowest FG% over the course of his career) and a large part of that is Draymond Green who gives him fits. Leonard is going to get his and their original big three can run in spurts but unless Mills and Diaw are having their best games (i.e. the Spurs play their best game), the Warriors, ball movement, tempo and depth seem to be too much.

In short, I think that if the Warriors had a choice between playing the Spurs in a seven game series or the Celtics in seven, they should prefer San Antonio simply based on the match-ups. Of course, I am not impartial here and, will - especially on Sunday given what is at stake for both the Celtics franchise and the Warriors current team - be rooting my ass off for a W's victory.

I agree that the Celtics would present more of a problem to Golden State than the Spurs would. The NBA is a matchup league.......it's why we struggle with Brooklyn while the Warriors struggle with the Celtics.

 

[reggiecleveland]

I really want them to get 73,for no other reason than it pisses off Jordan. I also like a new GTOAT and the media declaring SC the GOAT so Kobe varnishes from the conversation immediately.