The Dubs 2015-16: chasing history

[Eddie Jurak]

You can use Basketball Reference's handy player season finder to find out which players have reached various statistical thresholds.

If you round down Draymond's numbers to 14 pts, 9 reb, 7 ast, 1 blk per game — and don't even worry about the steals and 3fg%— sure enough, he is the only player in NBA history to reach them.

The thing is, they didn't use to keep track of blocks and steals, and obviously there didn't use to be a three-pointer, so by including those numbers you exclude a lot of past greats. If you use just the the basic 14 pts / 9 reb / 7 ast, the complete list is:

Draymond Green (so far)
Wilt Chamberlain (twice)
Oscar Robertson (four times)
Larry Bird (twice)
Magic Johnson (once)
John Havlicek (once)
Grant Hill (once)
Fat Lever (once)

Not bad company for the 35th pick in the 2012 draft.

Nothing against Draymond, who seems clearly to be a new and unique (for now) model of great NBA player, but these types of comparisons can be misleading. Just moving those threshholds changes the players on that list dramatically.

For example, saying that Magic only did 14-9-7 once kind of misses that he did 14-7-9 (actually 16-7-9) 5 times, 17-6-11 7 times, etc. Larry Bird only did 14-9-7 twice, but both of those were actually 24-9-7, something Green will never approach. Bird had five seasons of 21-10-5, 7 seasons of 20-9-6. Antoine Walker, nobody's Bird, Magic, or even Draymond, had 2 seasons of 22-8-5.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Agreed: all cherrypicked groupings of arbitrary statistical thresholds are silly -- including the deeply silly yet strangely revered "triple double."

Bosox79 had posed the question, so I was just pointing him to where/how he could find the answer. For recreational purposes only, of course.

 

[coremiller]

After getting sloppy and losing two out of three, the Warriors are clearly refocused. They just beat the 1st and 4th place teams in the East on the road by 34 and 31.

They have Indiana at home, then on Monday the long-awaited first meeting with San Antonio. Despite being 39-4, the Warriors are only 2.5 games ahead of San Antonio.

 

[nattysez]

A recurring problem for the Dubs is that their bench remains incapable of holding big leads. Curry wound up having play in the fourth quarter last night after GS was way ahead in the third. I'm not sure this is entirely avoidable -- if teams are going to roll their starters out in the 4th q of a blowout to see if they can come back, they are naturally going to be better than the Dubs' back-ups -- but Tim Roye on the radio last night seemed pretty disappointed when GS had to bring in its starters in the 4th.

In other news, this was pretty funny.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

In fairness, I think a lot of the underperformance of the Ws' bench has owed to the absence of the versatile Harrison Barnes for almost half the early season (in addition to more minor injuries to Bogut, Ezeli, Barbosa, and Curry), which created a ripple effect up and down the roster: less blended rotations, more "hockey substitutions", relying on Brandon Rush and Ian Clark in key situations, giving meaningful minutes to Mo Speights at PF, overworking Green, Iguodala and Livingston, etc.

With Barnes back and finally looking more like his pre-injury self, and Barbosa back and making plays like this —

— the Ws bench suddenly looks much deeper, fresher and more potent: more blending, more smallball, less Mo. And lo: 34 and 31 point beatdowns in Cleveland and Chicago. (Yeah, they brought Curry back in for a few minutes in the 4th last night, but it's a stretch to say they "had" to: IIRC, they were up by ~18 when he came in. Pretty sure the chance to get him a triple double was more of a motivating factor for his reappearance than fear that they might lose).

 

[ifmanis5]

Steve Kerr will coach on Friday vs. the Pacers.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Ws have a slightly tougher time with the Pacers than with the Cavs or Bulls (thanks partly to an eye-opening performance by Myler Turner), but still cruise 122-110 to move to 40-4. Curry gets the triple-double this time: 39 pts (on a whopping 19 fga), 10 rebounds, 12 assists.

Ws win their 38th straight home game; Steph now at 204 threes made, tied with Mitch Richmond 1996-97 and Gerald Green 2013-14 for 37th on the all-time list. Through 44 games.

Welcome back Steve Kerr, and bring on the Spurs!

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

This is what happens in 2016 when you are the the reigning MVP and the most recent champion. This is not good. Too bad Tim Duncan's game is a beautiful but boring style that was honed back before the internet was everywhere...

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

My daughter is big into basketball, hip hop and Stephen Curry. I was going to send it to her. Then I listened to it. That was just awful.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Pretty good on a basketball court, tho.

 

[Devizier]

I have to say, I enjoyed that dismantling last night.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

The Golden State Warriors’ plan of pursuit predates their 2015 championship run, a bold plot to declare the futility of resistance. It isn’t only that the NBA champions are determined to recruit Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant, the truth is that they’re the most intriguing destination to him. If Durant leaves the Thunder, the Warriors are the significant frontrunners to sign him, league sources told The Vertical.​

Not sure if this qualifies as a "Woj-bomb" since it contains no actual news, but it does feel like a "Woj-suspicious looking package that must make fans of other NBA teams want to exit the station."

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Remember the hate LeBron received for teaming up with his friends to win a couple of championships? Durant would deserve 15 times that, because he'd be joining an already existing champion to get his.

 

[chilidawg]

Remember the hate LeBron received for teaming up with his friends to win a couple of championships? Durant would deserve 15 times that, because he'd be joining an already existing champion to get his.

Except Lebron is a royal prima donna and Durant seems like a pretty down to earth guy. He might have the sense not to turn the announcement into a primetime event as well.

 

[Kliq]

Yeah people would certainly still slam Durant, but as long as he doesn't announce it to everybody on ESPN than he won't get nearly as much hate as LeBron did.

 

[coremiller]

Also, OKC is not Durant's hometown and OKC is not a three-sport city with no titles since 1964. And Durant didn't (or hasn't yet, at least) mysteriously/bizarrely choke/give up in their most recent playoff loss. The LeBron thing was a once-in-a-lifetime confluence of events.

Holy hell would a Curry-Thompson-Durant-Green core be absolutely terrifying.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Remember the hate LeBron received for teaming up with his friends to win a couple of championships? Durant would deserve 15 times that, because he'd be joining an already existing champion to get his.

No way. Obviously, the people of OKC will be angry if he leaves, but it's been a legitimate concern of their's for some time now and won't come as a huge shock, like LeBron's exit from Cleveland was. As long as he doesn't make a spectacle of his decision, which just isn't KD's style, I don't know why anyone would hate him for leaving OKC to join a great team that has cap space to pay him. Durant isn't the polarizing figure that LeBron is and won't receive anywhere near the hate Bron got. He'd be a great player going to a great situation. And the media will eat it up.

 

[Devizier]

Not sure if this qualifies as a "Woj-bomb" since it contains no actual news, but it does feel like a "Woj-suspicious looking package that must make fans of other NBA teams want to exit the station."

Wondering who Woj's source is; he plants stories like this in exchange for actual news. Could be Durant's agent, but what would he be agitating for?

I don't know why anyone would hate him for leaving OKC

I mean, shit. The decision makes itself.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

No way. Obviously, the people of OKC will be angry if he leaves, but it's been a legitimate concern of their's for some time now and won't come as a huge shock, like LeBron's exit from Cleveland was. As long as he doesn't make a spectacle of his decision, which just isn't KD's style, I don't know why anyone would hate him for leaving OKC to join a great team that has cap space to pay him. Durant isn't the polarizing figure that LeBron is and won't receive anywhere near the hate Bron got. He'd be a great player going to a great situation. And the media will eat it up.

LeBron's exit from Cleveland came as a shock? I don't remember it like that at all.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Except Lebron is a royal prima donna and Durant seems like a pretty down to earth guy. He might have the sense not to turn the announcement into a primetime event as well.

Yeah people would certainly still slam Durant, but as long as he doesn't announce it to everybody on ESPN than he won't get nearly as much hate as LeBron did.

Also, OKC is not Durant's hometown and OKC is not a three-sport city with no titles since 1964. And Durant didn't (or hasn't yet, at least) mysteriously/bizarrely choke/give up in their most recent playoff loss. The LeBron thing was a once-in-a-lifetime confluence of events.

Holy hell would a Curry-Thompson-Durant-Green core be absolutely terrifying.

No way. Obviously, the people of OKC will be angry if he leaves, but it's been a legitimate concern of their's for some time now and won't come as a huge shock, like LeBron's exit from Cleveland was. As long as he doesn't make a spectacle of his decision, which just isn't KD's style, I don't know why anyone would hate him for leaving OKC to join a great team that has cap space to pay him. Durant isn't the polarizing figure that LeBron is and won't receive anywhere near the hate Bron got. He'd be a great player going to a great situation. And the media will eat it up.

Feels pretty revisionist to me. Sure, The Announcement was stupid, but beyond that people railed about how LeBron needed to stack the deck to win. He was called spoiled for wanting to play with other superstars, AAU culture was blamed and folks insisted he'd never be considered one of the best ever because he couldn't win on his own. Meanwhile, Durant's on a team with another top 5 talent. If he leaves to join one of the best ever teams--a 70 win team, who at that point may very well be back-to-back champs--everybody's going to be fine with it so long as he doesn't announce it on ESPN? I don't buy it.

 

[Devizier]

Feels pretty revisionist to me. Sure, The Announcement was stupid, but beyond that people railed about how LeBron needed to stack the deck to win. He was called spoiled for wanting to play with other superstars, AAU culture was blamed and folks insisted he'd never be considered one of the best ever because he couldn't win on his own. Meanwhile, Durant's on a team with another top 5 talent. If he leaves to join one of the best ever teams--a 70 win team, who at that point may very well be back-to-back champs--everybody's going to be fine with it so long as he doesn't announce it on ESPN? I don't buy it.

Well, part of the issue is that Lebron was being stacked against Jordan. Durant doesn't suffer from that fate.

 

[jablo1312]

Durant won't get 1/10th of the hate, but he would deserve just as much, if not more, from a basketball perspective. I mean, compare the Thunder this year to the
2009-2010 Cavaliers sans Lebron and KD, respectively. It's not even close.

It's easy to forget now but LeBron before the decision was one of the most liked players in the league (outside of fans of the other good Eastern Conference franchises). It took a truly incredibly awful idea for that to change, and it would be tough for another athlete to do something non-criminal that would inspire such fervent hatred among fans everywhere. Durant wouldn't get that level of hate (at least initially). That's a little because he's not being compared to the absolute top tier of players ever, and mostly because he wouldn't be announcing it live during a TV special.

And no part of the LeBron leaving Cleveland was a surprise, except for the format he did it in. People were talking about it for 2 years.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Hot take that I'm not sure is it's own thread, so I figure it goes here: Jim O'Brien's Celtics teams invented the offensive style of play that the Warriors use today. After 2001/02, that team had attempted the 2nd most 3P in history, and after 02/03, that team had attempted the most. Over those two seasons, they shot the living shit out of the ball from long-range, more than any team in NBA history up until that point. Now, granted this is where the NBA was headed, but was O'Brien a visionary for attempting to try this? They were the first team in NBA history to make at least 30% of their shot attempts from 3P. In 01/02 they took 134 3PA than the 2nd most team -- the same gap between the 2nd and 10th most teams. In 02/03, they shot 487 took 3PA than the 2nd most team. That's insane. But they also had the talent on the roster to try this kind of stuff -- they had 7 players who took at least 100 3PA and 4 who took at least 248 (never mind Antoine's 582 attempts). Pierce and Walker had more 3PA 6 teams. I don't really know where this is going. But every time I watch the Warriors I think back to those Obie Celtics teams.

 

[jon abbey]

Doesn't Rick Pitino get credit for that? O'Brien was a Pitino assistant from 1994-2001 (first at Kentucky, then in Boston) before replacing Pitino as the Celtics coach.

 

[smastroyin]

Rick Pitino gets credit for nothing.

No-thing.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Hot take that I'm not sure is it's own thread, so I figure it goes here: Jim O'Brien's Celtics teams invented the offensive style of play that the Warriors use today. After 2001/02, that team had attempted the 2nd most 3P in history, and after 02/03, that team had attempted the most. Over those two seasons, they shot the living shit out of the ball from long-range, more than any team in NBA history up until that point. Now, granted this is where the NBA was headed, but was O'Brien a visionary for attempting to try this? They were the first team in NBA history to make at least 30% of their shot attempts from 3P. In 01/02 they took 134 3PA than the 2nd most team -- the same gap between the 2nd and 10th most teams. In 02/03, they shot 487 took 3PA than the 2nd most team. That's insane. But they also had the talent on the roster to try this kind of stuff -- they had 7 players who took at least 100 3PA and 4 who took at least 248 (never mind Antoine's 582 attempts). Pierce and Walker had more 3PA 6 teams. I don't really know where this is going. But every time I watch the Warriors I think back to those Obie Celtics teams.

Those back-to-back Rockets championship teams shot a ton of threes, went small a lot, and actually won championships. They probably deserve more credit than the O'Brien Celtics.

 

[smastroyin]

Those teams ran a ton of offense through the low post with Olajuwon and Robert Horry though. No analogy is perfect but I feel the similarity vibe that Laddie was talking about.

Maybe the Rockets were that much more similar, but Olajuwon kind of dominates my views of those teams. If the Celtics today had early 30's Olajuwon they would be East favorites I think.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Those teams ran a ton of offense through the low post with Olajuwon and Robert Horry though. No analogy is perfect but I feel the similarity vibe that Laddie was talking about.

Maybe the Rockets were that much more similar, but Olajuwon kind of dominates my views of those teams. If the Celtics today had early 30's Olajuwon they would be East favorites I think.

Robert Horry is pretty much the quintessential stretch 4. He took more than twice as many threes as he did shots at the rim, and he didn't even take 10% of his shots between 3-10 feet.

And of course Olajuwon is probably the best post player in history, but I don't think a 1 in 4 out is all that different than what the Warriors are doing.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

That's a valid argument about Houston and hadn't considered them. I was thinking more about how the Celtics basically said "fuck it" to shooting twos and tried to win games by leaning on the 3 more than any team in NBA history to that point.

It's interesting that the 02/03 Celtics team had a pace of 90.9 -- that's 17th in the league, and would rank them 2nd to last in today's NBA. I had memories in my head of them playing quite a bit faster, but I've been wrong about a lot of things.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

I actually think of the Morey Rockets as way more of "f*ck it to shooting twos" team than these Ws. The Rockets currently lead the NBA in 3 fga per game, as they did last year and the year before. The Ws are #3 in threes as a percentage of overall field goals, after Houston and Charlotte. Last year they ranked #7. Where the Ws really stand apart from the rest of the league is in their accuracy: they're currently an absurd 42.7% on threes as a team, miles ahead of #14 Charlotte (35.2%) and #16 Houston (35.1%).

Reminds me of that great line from the American ex-pat hanging out in Spain in Whit Stillman's Barcelona: "we're not more violent than Europeans ... we're just better shots."

If we're talking comps: to me the Ws are probably closest offensively to Pop's current Spurs (constant off-ball movement screens, cutting, etc., unselfish passing leading to open layups and threes for someone) and maybe closest defensively to Phil Jackson's Bulls (five-six players deep in long, versatile wing defenders who can switch everything). Which would make sense as Kerr is a disciple of Pop and Jackson.

By way of Warrior news: Ezeli is out at least six weeks after knee surgery yesterday, which I think puts a serious damper on the chase for 73 wins. The Ws are now Bogut's fragile health away from having Mo Speights and Jason Thompson as their only centers over 6'-6".

By way of an interesting, potentially related rumor: Larry Sanders is talking about a return to the NBA. He's living in CA and he and Bogut were super-tight in Milwaukee (he credits Bogut with taking him under his wing and mentoring him). Hmmm...

 

[Devizier]

Any discussion of three ball in the nineties has to account for the fact that the NBA moved the line to 22 feet for three seasons (including the two that the Rockets won).

 

[smastroyin]

I guess the argument is pretty banal, but you guys are remembering the wrong Rockets teams.

The first championship, when they won 58 games, they took four times as many 2's as 3's, Horry took 566 2's to 126 3's, and Otis Thorpe was second on the team in shots...and he took half as many as Hakeem. And between the two of them they took 25 3's.

The look of the team really changed to reflect your recollection when they traded Thorpe for Drexler. Now, if you want to credit that trade as Rudy T. "inventing" this style of ball, that's cool.

 

[coremiller]

The Warriors go into the All-Star break at 48-4, which is made even more impressive by their having played a slightly road-heavy schedule (24 home games, 28 road games). They have a tough road trip coming out of the break: @Portland, @Clippers (back-to-back), @Atlana, @Miami, @Orlando (back-to-back), @OKC. 6 games in 9 days, 5 against current playoff teams. 4-2 would be a very good trip. I think they'll lose at least one for sure, just due to the schedule.

After the trip, they'll have 24 games remaining, with 17 at home. A 4-2 trip would leave them at 52-6, a 5-1 trip 53-5, meaning they need to close at 21-3 or 20-4 to get to 73 wines. With so many home games left, that's eminently doable. They have won 42 regular season home games in a row (they did lose at home twice in the playoffs last year) and have a decent shot to run the table at home this year. If they can go 17-0 or 16-1 in the home games, they only need to go 4-3 in the road games (two of those 7 remaining road games are in San Antonio).

Earlier in the season people thought they might not win 72+ because it's not worth the effort to try -- they'd be better off resting guys and saving energy for the playoffs. But this is an odd year when there could be two 70-win teams. The Ws are only 3.5 games ahead of San Antonio (although San Antonio has played a more home-heavy schedule), and this is a year when home court and the #1 seed are really going to matter. They can't afford to start coasting yet. Maybe by the last 10 games or so they could, but by then they could have the record squarely in their sights and may want to take a shot at it.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Yeah, there are a couple of advantages to securing the #1 seed in my view. The obvious one is home court advantage (which is pretty big when talking about teams like GS and SA that don't lose at home). The other — assuming OKC is the #3 seed — is avoiding the Thunder in the second round. The Clips at #4 are not chopped liver, but I don't think they're as dangerous as OKC with a hungry and motivated KD and Westbrook. OKC has a recent track record of making life miserable for the Spurs; watching OKC and SA beat up on each other in he second round could be a pretty big plus for GS' title hopes.

Another remarkable thing about the 48-4 record (in addition to the road-heavy schedule that you note) is that they've reached it while having moderately crap luck with injuries (Barnes and Ezeli in particular). In terms of man-games lost and quality of those players, there have only been a handful of NBA teams who have been hit harder this season.

As far as 73 wins ... I get the sense they want it but will not kill themselves to get it. Ezeli being out six-plus weeks is going to make it especially tough; much as enjoy Mo Speights on days when his shot is falling, he's a fairly big defensive liability. With Ezeli out, Bogut is our only really competent rim defender, and I'm pretty sure Kerr is going to try his darnedest to keep the the big Aussie as fresh and healthy as possible for the playoffs. (And ... much as I'd love it, I don't actually think Larry Sanders is walking through that door.)

As a Ws fan, I'll be perfectly happy if they max out at 72 or even 70 (which only requires a fairly modest 22-8). As a Pats fan, I also think back to the stress of 2007 and wouldn't mind avoiding entering the playoffs saddled with all the hype and expectations of "greatest regular season team ever."

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Pretty solid get (if it goes through) with Ezeli out at least another 5 weeks and Bogut being Bogut (strained Achilles).

 

[Kliq]

I don't dislike Varejao as a depth player for them, but he can't be counted on for anything. He makes Bogut look like AC Green.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

I don't think the Ws are really counting on him as anything other than a five-week 5-10 mpg stopgap while Ezeli recovers, and an upgrade to JThompson/Speights at 4th string center. For now I think he helps eat a few minutes to help keep Bogut/Green fresh for the playoffs; and he may marginally improve the team's chances at 72-73 wins. In the playoffs (barring injury, knocking wood) I doubt he plays much, though it would be fun to see him play a few productive minutes in a potential finals rematch v the Cavs.

 

[ElUno20]

I hate the warriors so I haven't followed this thread to see if this has been covered, forgive me if it has. But yesterday it occurred to me that if Steph's recent health continues, given his scoring and the way the game is played, is the all time scoring record on the table down the line?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I hate the warriors so I haven't followed this thread to see if this has been covered, forgive me if it has. But yesterday it occurred to me that if Steph's recent health continues, given his scoring and the way the game is played, is the all time scoring record on the table down the line?

I hope you're referring to the Warriors all time scoring record. He only has 10,000 and will be 28 next year.

 

[ElUno20]

I hope you're referring to the Warriors all time scoring record. He only has 10,000 and will be 28 next year.

I was actually talking about the grand daddy of them all but a quick Google checked shocked me that Steph is 27? God damn time flies. I thought he was a lot younger. Nothing to see here, move along.

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

Varejeo looked pretty well cooked yesterday...

 

[Kliq]

Steph could end up over 30,000 if he keeps this pace up and he ages well. If he is healthy he could turn into a different player that just nails threes off the bench like Steve Kerr on his best day ever. Guys like Reggie and Ray Allen have shown that shooting can age gracefully and you can still shoot well in your late-30s. I would only question his defensive capabilities at age 38.

LeBron has over 26,000 points and will be 32 in December. Durant has nearly 17,000 and will be 28 in September. Those guys will likely give Kareem a run .

 

[ElUno20]

See I was thinking the same thing but I had him at 24 or 25 in my head.

I don't know if Lebron will get close to Kareem but I could see Durant getting damn close.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

See I was thinking the same thing but I had him at 24 or 25 in my head.

I don't know if Lebron will get close to Kareem but I could see Durant getting damn close.

If KD can avoid any further big injuries I'd say he has a better shot than LeBron. Bron needs another 6 seasons or so playing at his current rate. That's a lot to ask for his age and the miles he's already racked up. If I had to guess I would say he ends up somewhere between the two rapists.

 

[coremiller]

Kareem's record is gettable but it's hard. Kobe had a good shot if he hadn't blown out his achilles; at age 34 he was still about 7000 points short, which is something like 4-5 good seasons (20 ppg for 80 games would yield 1600 points/year), but he had averaged 27 ppg that year.

The problem for LeBron is that so much of his scoring is based on superior athleticism and physicality, which are not skills that tend to age that well. Durant is a much better natural shooter.

 

[ifmanis5]

Now that we've seen enough of this league I think it's fair to say that the overall quality of the teams is not good. Golden State's W-L record is impressive but inflated. Full marks to them for taking care of business but let's face it- the Cavs are legit when healthy and so are the Spurs. The Thunder can scare you and so can the Raps but the drop off after that gets pretty scary.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Did anyone get to watch the dubs game last night? My eyes popped out of my head looking at Steph's stat line. Holy shit.

 

[The Social Chair]

Now that we've seen enough of this league I think it's fair to say that the overall quality of the teams is not good. Golden State's W-L record is impressive but inflated. Full marks to them for taking care of business but let's face it- the Cavs are legit when healthy and so are the Spurs. The Thunder can scare you and so can the Raps but the drop off after that gets pretty scary.

Less inflated than the 95-96 season when the Bulls won 72. The league was in a down period - the stars who came in during the 80s were getting old and the KG/Duncan/Kobe generation hadn't arrived yet. Plus there were two expansion teams.

 

[jon abbey]

Now that we've seen enough of this league I think it's fair to say that the overall quality of the teams is not good. Golden State's W-L record is impressive but inflated. Full marks to them for taking care of business but let's face it- the Cavs are legit when healthy and so are the Spurs. The Thunder can scare you and so can the Raps but the drop off after that gets pretty scary.

I mean, this always goes both ways, you could make a good argument that not only are the Warriors in contention for the best team ever, the Spurs are in contention for the best second-best team ever, same with OKC (28-6 against the West), CLE and maybe even the Clippers at 3-5. There's obviously a huge dropoff after the top 5 or 6, but maybe that's at least in part because those top teams are historically good. GS and SA are a combined 52-0 so far this season, that is just ridiculous.

 

[Devizier]

Kareem's scoring record is close to untouchable; his first six seasons with Milwaukee, he averaged over 30 points per game and 78 games per season.

And he started at age 22!

Imagine if Kareem (and Wilt) got started after high school, as they easily could have.