While poking around on Fangraphs I discovered that Jose Altuve is currently sitting at a career-high 30 HR and a career-low 6 SB. At first blush, this wasn't very surprising - Altuve was out with a hamstring injury earlier in the year and is getting older to boot, so it's expected that he would be running less. Similarly, in an environment where home runs are being hit at a higher rate, and for a 29 y.o. who is probably still in his power prime, hitting more home runs also isn's a surprise. However, when I dug a little deeper, I noticed that the stats weren't really telling this story.
The first thing that stands out to me is that Altuve is not hitting the ball with more authority - his exit velocity is only 85.8 mph, below his career average of 86.2 and in the *9th percentile* in all of major league baseball. His launch angle numbers are actually trending downward, though his barrel % is a career-high. The second thing I noticed is that Altuve is still a very fast runner - 85th percentile in all of baseball - with sprint speeds, bolts, and HP-to-1st stats in-line with his career averages.
So what the hell is going on here? The only explanation I have is that Altuve is consciously pulling the ball more, at 50% on the season, which may be resulting in cheaper home runs down the left-field line. Indeed, compare his spray charts from 2018 to 2019:
2018:
2019:
Is this indicative of the Astros organizational philosophy that tries to exploit cheap home runs and mitigate the risk of getting thrown out on the bases? What else might explain the kind of season Altuve is having? Just dumb luck? Something else?
Edit: Clarity
| Year | HR | ISO | SB | CS | BSR | HR/FB | Pull % | EV | LA | Barrel % | Sprint Speed | Bolts | HP to 1st |
| 2015 | 15 | 0.146 | 38 | 13 | -4 | 7.4% | 45.3% | 85.8 | 10.5 | 3.1% | 28.4 | 78 | |
| 2016 | 24 | 0.194 | 30 | 10 | 0.4 | 13.0% | 45.3% | 87.5 | 10.9 | 6.9% | 28.4 | 51 | |
| 2017 | 24 | 0.202 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 14.6% | 40.8% | 85.5 | 9.1 | 6.7% | 28.3 | 62 | 4.13 |
| 2018 | 13 | 0.950 | 17 | 4 | 4.7 | 9.6% | 41.4% | 86.3 | 8.5 | 5.9% | 28.1 | 53 | 4.13 |
| 2019 | 30 | 0.250 | 6 | 5 | -4.9 | 24.2% | 50.0% | 85.8 | 8.4 | 8.1% | 28.6 | 44 | 4.06 |
The first thing that stands out to me is that Altuve is not hitting the ball with more authority - his exit velocity is only 85.8 mph, below his career average of 86.2 and in the *9th percentile* in all of major league baseball. His launch angle numbers are actually trending downward, though his barrel % is a career-high. The second thing I noticed is that Altuve is still a very fast runner - 85th percentile in all of baseball - with sprint speeds, bolts, and HP-to-1st stats in-line with his career averages.
So what the hell is going on here? The only explanation I have is that Altuve is consciously pulling the ball more, at 50% on the season, which may be resulting in cheaper home runs down the left-field line. Indeed, compare his spray charts from 2018 to 2019:
2018:
2019:
Is this indicative of the Astros organizational philosophy that tries to exploit cheap home runs and mitigate the risk of getting thrown out on the bases? What else might explain the kind of season Altuve is having? Just dumb luck? Something else?
Edit: Clarity
