Keeping in mind that we know what happens to a player's income when they forego saves and pitch the 8th inning instead, this seems like it would keep Kimbrel happy, which isn't nothing.
The Craig Kimbrel Thread
- Thread starter Darnell's Son
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Not saying it's not true, but the saves-into-salary thing always puzzles me. I'd think both GMs and agents know enough about the serendipity of the save stat to know that it's not the best or sole measure of relief pitcher success.
If Kimbrel had the exact same stat line as now, but 13 saves instead of 23 (because he'd shut down the 8th inning instead of 9th) would that be any less impressive? Would it cost him money on his next contract?
Is it stupid? Yes. Is it exactly the argument that was used to deny Betances big bucks? Yes. Would it be used against Kimberly that way? Maybe, maybe not. Would you flip a coin on millions of dollars if it was you?
I really don't think this is true. Teams trying to find shutdown bullpen arms are going to be looking far far past the number of S on free agents stat sheets. There could be a few lowball offers to start the bidding price but you know his contract will end up pretty close to exactly where it should be for someone of his quality
I think this is probably the case for a one time "closer."
But for a guy that has been lights out as a not-closer I think the combination of few saves and the inevitable "he is 0 for 5 in save opportunities" (complete bs because coming in the game in the 7th or even the 8th isn't really a save opportunity) will depress a free agent salary.
Where Betances is a good example of how lack of saves affects one's arbitration value/leverage, isn't Andrew Miller a fair example of how it affects the free agent market? He got 4/$36M from the Yankees before the 2015 season. In the same marketplace, David Robertson got 4/$46M from the White Sox. The most significant difference between the two is Robertson had a year's worth of being a full time closer accruing saves (47 career saves) while Miller didn't (1 career save). Which pitcher would you rather have in your bullpen right now?
It is a better example, and Miller had the better season entering free agency and was paid less, However, Robertson was between 1.5 and 2.5 wins a season for 4 years straight so he had a more established track record. Miller was really just an ok pitcher until 2014 since he couldn't throw the ball over the plate consistently before then.
I think this a likely a bigger issue in arbitration than for a fee agent.
I recall reading a piece about arbitration several years ago in which someone on the club side lamented 1) how hard it was to keep a straight face when the arbitrator would begin the session by asking the player for an autograph, and 2) how ridiculous it was that after making a decision, the arbitrator would ask for the definition of a "save."
I think this was the reason that Ben stayed away from Miller after the Yankees offer when he was in FA.... Miller had a track record of inconsistency and wildness- and there was some similiarity to his old UNC pal, Bard who went off the rails after finally getting his stuff together. Miller's height and lankiness was possibly a warning sign that the same would happen and at the contract the Yankees were offering, the risk wasn't worth the reward. Obviously he was wrong but I can understand the reasoning
Every GM could know that Saves are a silly and it could still depress salary - markets aren't necessarily rational - especially with salary caps and weird collusive arrangements. And arbitration is a negotiation with two captive parties - they're going to use whatever they can whether or not it's real.
Kimbrel getting his work in tonight. The #2, 3, and 4 Rays hitters -- Dickerson, Longoria and Morrison (53 HRs combined) -- managed to hit only one foul ball and a foul tip. 11 pitches and 3 strikeouts. It's daylight here, but I dozed off too.
Radio announcers were reading my mind, wondering how many starters have fewer Ks than Kimbrel. There are 10 starters who have 25+ starts who have fewer Ks than Kimbrel's 121. He's also tied with Zach Davies in total Ks; Davies is tied for the most starts in baseball (12 pitchers with 31 starts).
Kimbrel pitched a pretty good "complete game" against the Rays this year.
9 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 23 strikeouts
Of Kimbrel's 123 pitches, the Rays hit a grand total of 3 fair balls (none of which left the infield).
No pitcher in baseball history has ever posted a K/9 rate higher than 20 against any opponent in any season. Until now.
9 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 23 strikeouts
Of Kimbrel's 123 pitches, the Rays hit a grand total of 3 fair balls (none of which left the infield).
No pitcher in baseball history has ever posted a K/9 rate higher than 20 against any opponent in any season. Until now.
What is that table showing? The query looks reasonable, but there are a number of players with K/9 above 23 (and some above 27). It seems sorted by K's, but within some other constraint...?
