The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

Fishy1

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Shows you how good our system is and has been where Mayer is almost a forgotton guy now. He would be a top prospect in many teams lists.
I mean, he still is. Fangraphs still had him as the 3rd overall prospect in all of baseball when they last updated their rankings. He's a great prospect. A 142 wrc+ at AA as a 21 year old is nothing to sneeze at.

He's just had more injuries and hasn't touched AAA yet and is more obviously blocked at SS, so it's hard to see him making an immediate impact next year.
 

Cassvt2023

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Not sure where to put this, so here seems as good as any:

The best Red Sox offenses of the last 20 years aren't the ones that hit the most HR, but the ones that keep the line moving, get on base, put pressure on the pitcher and defense, mash doubles (especially at Fenway) etc... so high OBP guys. We already have Casas, Devers, Duran, Yoshida and to a lesser extent Abreu. It is why i'm bullish on Anthony and Campbell based on their minor league numbers. It is why I was hoping they'd sign Seiya Suzuki a couple years ago, and still hoping the Cubs would be willing to trade him. O'Neill was fine last year, but how many of those solo homers that went 100 feet over the Monster helped them win baseball games? I think Breslow eventually wants his lineup to be littered with these types of OBP guys. He is smart and knows the ballpark his team plays in.
 

marcoscutaro

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I love the Suzuki fit but feel the issue might be with committing to putting him in LF - he has a no trade clause and has via his agent that he’s unhappy DHing. But if they could do it I’d love it. Interesting Breslow hasn’t made any moves with Chicago yet considering his history there.
 

simplicio

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Hoffman off the board, Toronto get him at 3/33 with incentives up to $39m. "Opportunity to close" so not as a starter either. Bummed we didn't beat that.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Hoffman off the board, Toronto get him at 3/33 with incentives up to $39m. "Opportunity to close" so not as a starter either. Bummed we didn't beat that.
I’m someone who wants to avoid a multi year contract for a reliever at all costs….

…. and I’m a little jealous of that deal.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Like Hoffman, but if there is any budget whatsoever (and I think there is) then no chance I’d want to give up to $13m to someone that isn’t an established closer, and certainly not for 3 years.

Bummer that Boston will have to face him a ton, but I wouldn’t want the Sox approaching that deal with the information (and inference) we have at hand.
 

moondog80

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They paid $32 mil for *two* years of Jansen.

But, maybe Toronto now out on Bregman?
 
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chrisfont9

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dhappy42

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I mean, he still is. Fangraphs still had him as the 3rd overall prospect in all of baseball when they last updated their rankings. He's a great prospect. A 142 wrc+ at AA as a 21 year old is nothing to sneeze at.

He's just had more injuries and hasn't touched AAA yet and is more obviously blocked at SS, so it's hard to see him making an immediate impact next year.
Mayer may not be MLB ready but I wouldn’t say he’s blocked at SS. Mayer at SS and Story at 2B works.

Edit: That said, I think Mayer ends up at 3B.
 
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SouthernBoSox

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Looking at some pending free agents who are in the top 30 of Pull% I came across Dylan Moore

His numbers at first seem pretty blah, but he has an enormous home/road a split. He had a wRC+ of 62 at Seattle and a 139 wRC+ away. Additionally, he crushed lefties with a 125 wRC+. He has a career 117 wRC+ away from T-Mobile park. 87 at TMobile.

He ranked 7th in all of baseball in pull % by right handed hitters.

The value add of getting him out of Seattle and in Fenway would be enormous.

He also can play absolutely everywhere. First, second, short, third, and outfield and he’s actually competent there.

If we are going to go the “value add” route. He’s someone I’m sure they are looking at.
After reading Alex Speier’s article about adding right handed fly all pull hitters I decided to dive a little deeper into not only who pulls the ball, but who pulls the ball in the air.

And wouldn’t you know who pops up as second in all baseball - only behind Issac Paredes - for right handed fly ball pull% ? The aforementioned Dylan Moore .

I really think swapping his home field from T-Mobile to Fenway might be the biggest home park factor adjustment of any player in baseball. Given his positional versatility, he makes to much damn sense. I’d be very surprised if he isn’t on their short
 

simplicio

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I was coveting Moore last year when our 2B situation was busy being a disaster, but couldn't think of any reason Seattle would want to trade him even with that home split, and I think that's even more true now. Their OF seems pretty well sorted since the last deadline but they really don't have anyone to step in and replace him around the infield. And we certainly aren't sending off a Hamilton or something they could use immediately for one year of his services.
 

chawson

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After reading Alex Speier’s article about adding right handed fly all pull hitters I decided to dive a little deeper into not only who pulls the ball, but who pulls the ball in the air.

And wouldn’t you know who pops up as second in all baseball - only behind Issac Paredes - for right handed fly ball pull% ? The aforementioned Dylan Moore .

I really think swapping his home field from T-Mobile to Fenway might be the biggest home park factor adjustment of any player in baseball. Given his positional versatility, he makes to much damn sense. I’d be very surprised if he isn’t on their short
Similarly wonder about Lane Thomas. Seems like a good guy to grab as our Refsnyder replacement next year.

Funny that the guy who shows up among the worst fits whenever I look at these lists is Anthony Santander.
 

Yo La Tengo

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My gut says we are waiting out Profar on a one year deal.
I like Profar a lot, but he seems like a poor fit, since he would only play LF at this point and the Sox have a ton of outfielders (notably, he was tied for 231st place last year as the second worst defensive LF in baseball at -8 DRS). And I don't think it likely that the Sox are shopping for a full-time DH at this point.

That being said, there is some support for the argument that Profar's offensive numbers were not a fluke:

94814

https://www.mlb.com/news/jurickson-profar-free-agent-analysis
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I like Profar a lot, but he seems like a poor fit, since he would only play LF at this point and the Sox have a ton of outfielders (notably, he was tied for 231st place last year as the second worst defensive LF in baseball at -8 DRS). And I don't think it likely that the Sox are shopping for a full-time DH at this point.

That being said, there is some support for the argument that Profar's offensive numbers were not a fluke:

View attachment 94814

https://www.mlb.com/news/jurickson-profar-free-agent-analysis
For the record, I also like the player - I think I was advocating signing him before the 2022 or 2023 season, I don't recall which one, and it really doesn't matter. However, I've always thought of there being a massive difference between an outlier season being "fluky" and being "repeatable" if that makes sense. Plenty of guys have one great year but aren't able to consistently repeat that. Kind of what I think of Profar last year. It's not like he "lucked" his way into that season, but I also wouldn't bank on him repeating anything close to it at age 32. That season was so different from any of his prior (I think 8 years) that it just seems unlikely to be repeated as he gets older.

Either way, I really hope they don't sign Profar (or anyone) on a one year deal (same thing I was saying about Soler at this time last year). If they really like Profar (or whoever) and think he's a starter for the next great Red Sox team and want to give him 3/$45m/$15m (or whatever) then fine, go sign him. If the calculus is that someone isn't good enough to commit to for the medium term and are only desirable on a one year deal to the FO, then just play Hamilton's and Abreu's of the world full time (even against LHPs) and see what you've got. Just please, stop it with the one year stop gaps.
 

YTF

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Cross posting this @simplicio post from the 40 Roster thread...

Blake Sabol in and Shugart out, seems likely we're now out of the catcher market. Still at 40.

SP (13): Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford, Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Perales, Murphy, Sandoval

RP (11): Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock, Guerrero, Wilson, Bernardino, Weissert, Winckowski, Kelly, Penrod, Chapman

C (3): Wong, Narvaez, Sabol

IF (7): Devers, Story, Casas, Grissom, Hamilton, R. Gonzalez, Sogard

OF (5): Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Refsnyder, Garcia

DH (1): Yoshida
While there may be a few question marks concerning the pitching staff, I really like the depth that Breslow has built with the starting pitching and I think the pen has the potential to be really good. I think it's a safe bet to say that at some point we see Anthony and Campbell being promoted, but looking at the 40 man as currently constructed it seems that someone is going to need to be moved. Sogard seems to be the logical choice of position players and perhaps someone from the far end of the pitching bench could be sacrificed, but there isn't a whole lot of wiggle room there concerning who gets whacked in favor of promoting someone else. Good problem to have and I suppose that a lengthy IL stint can help ease what might be a tough decision, but it will still be interesting to follow this coming season's 40 man roster transactions. As previously stated, I think at some point in the season we see Hamilton moved to a small market team who is looking for a cost controlled player to man 2B. I think that's where his true value lies and his speed certainly enhances that.
 

Cassvt2023

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My case for Profar is a one year insurance policy while Campbell and Anthony develop at the major league level.
This, and a couple other points. 1.) He is a switch hitter, which is nice for Cora and pinch hitting. 2.) Yoshida may not be ready for ST, so there would be DH bats readily available early. 3.) He is by every account a great veteran clubhouse presence who also happens to be a fellow countryman of Rafaela. His influence on the younger guys could be helpful.
 

Cassvt2023

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Cross posting this @simplicio post from the 40 Roster thread...



While there may be a few question marks concerning the pitching staff, I really like the depth that Breslow has built with the starting pitching and I think the pen has the potential to be really good. I think it's a safe bet to say that at some point we see Anthony and Campbell being promoted, but looking at the 40 man as currently constructed it seems that someone is going to need to be moved. Sogard seems to be the logical choice of position players and perhaps someone from the far end of the pitching bench could be sacrificed, but there isn't a whole lot of wiggle room there concerning who gets whacked in favor of promoting someone else. Good problem to have and I suppose that a lengthy IL stint can help ease what might be a tough decision, but it will still be interesting to follow this coming season's 40 man roster transactions. As previously stated, I think at some point in the season we see Hamilton moved to a small market team who is looking for a cost controlled player to man 2B. I think that's where his true value lies and his speed certainly enhances that.
Wink could be traded. Bernardino or Kelly or Penrod could struggle and be DFA'd in ST. there are ways.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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For those who want Profar, have you ever seen him play the OF? He is one of THE WORST OFs in baseball. And he doesn’t play the infield anymore because HE WAS BAD. He‘s barely played 2b since 2019. It’s because he’s even worse there. I was listening to a prospects podcast and somehow they started talking about how bad Profar is in the OF. However, they did say his bat is legit and repeatable:

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/why-isnt-jurickson-profar-getting-more-interest-free-agency/

Maybe if Yoshida wasn‘t here he could DH but there is ZERO reason to sign an OF only.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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My case for Profar is a one year insurance policy while Campbell and Anthony develop at the major league level.
If Campbell and Anthony are developing at the major league level, where is the space to have Profar on the roster? I assume this is poorly phrased and you mean Profar is insurance at the major league level against Campbell and Anthony struggling and not even getting to the big leagues this year. But even so, I don't see the fit. They have Grissom, Hamilton, and Romy as "insurance" at 2B, and Rafaela, Refsnyder, and Romy as "insurance" in LF. Profar had a career year last season at the plate but he's no sure thing to repeat that performance and he's a liability in the field. Rolling the dice on the guys in house seems as reasonable of a bet as rolling the dice on Profar.
 

grimshaw

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For those who want Profar, have you ever seen him play the OF? He is one of THE WORST OFs in baseball. And he doesn’t play the infield anymore because HE WAS BAD. He‘s barely played 2b since 2019. It’s because he’s even worse there. I was listening to a prospects podcast and somehow they started talking about how bad Profar is in the OF. However, they did say his bat is legit and repeatable:

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/why-isnt-jurickson-profar-getting-more-interest-free-agency/

Maybe if Yoshida wasn‘t here he could DH but there is ZERO reason to sign an OF only.
Not only that but he is a career league average hitter from both sides of the plate (.241/.330/.396) vs righties and (.256/.335/.390) vs lefties. I'm not going to rely on one season of data before his age 31 season unless you want to count his wRC+ of 70 vs lefties in 2013 as well. Any ok offense he provides vs lefties will be nullified by his defense.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Is Alonso on a short deal feasible? Are there enough at-bats between Alonso/Casas rotating between DH/1B as well as Yoshida needing to DH? Does it make sense?
He doesn't make a lot of sense if Casas and Yoshida are both on the roster too. To fit him in, you're losing one of Romy, Hamilton, or Refsnyder (as the roster currently stands). Alonso covers none of the positions they do, while at least one of them covers Alonso's positions.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Is Alonso on a short deal feasible? Are there enough at-bats between Alonso/Casas rotating between DH/1B as well as Yoshida needing to DH? Does it make sense?
I would adore Alonso on something like a 3/$100m/$33m deal to be the DH for the next 3 seasons. Plus, to be clear, with a lot of teams trending away from spending big on 1b/DH I think this could be a place where Boston could / should flex it's financial muscle to employ a monster bat. They did this for Ortiz (starting in 2006 or 07, whenever his extension kicked in) and JDM when they were two of the highest paid position players on the team, and those seemed to have mildly successful seasons.

Last season Alonso had a 127 wRC+ vs LHPs and a 120 wRC+ vs RHPs and for his career its 130 and 131, so he'd absolutely fill my hope of a core bat to the line up. While his adjusted home runs seem to go down in Fenway (like they do for pretty much all players because most guys hit at least "some" line drive home runs) when you look at his "field out" charts overlayed against Fenway Park, he looks like he'd more than make them up.

I can't figure out how to embed it properly, but here is a link to said spray chart below.

However, Yoshida is the DH and as much as I'd like to have Alonso, with the current configuration of Casas 1b, Devers 3b and Yoshida at DH, there is no feasible way for it to happen. It'd be great if there could be a way to have the top of the order go Duran, Campbell, Devers, Casas, Alonso, Anthony, Abreu. That sounds lovely and in many ways is exactly what I think the line up needs. But with the way the roster is presently constructed, it's just not possible.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/illustrator?playerId=624413&playerType=batter&name=Pete Alonso&tabSelection=0&shape=square&shapeName=Square (Instagram)&subTitle=&chartType=sprayChart&chartName=Spray Chart&pitcherThrows=&batterStands=&plateAppearanceResults=[]&pitchTypes=[]&seasonType=["R"]&pitchResults=[]&facingPlayer=[]&balls=[]&battedBallType=[]&years=[2024]&strikes=[]&outs=[]&selectedGames=[]&homeTeam=[]&awayTeam=[]&vsTeam=[]&exitVelocityGT=0&exitVelocityLT=125&pitchVelocityGT=0&pitchVelocityLT=105&launchAngleGT=-90&launchAngleLT=90&perspective=catcher&venue=3
 
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BeantownIdaho

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I would adore Alonso on something like a 3/$100m/$33m deal to be the DH for the next 3 seasons. Plus, to be clear, with a lot of teams trending away from spending big on 1b/DH I think this could be a place where Boston could / should flex it's financial muscle to employ a monster bat. They did this for Ortiz (starting in 2006 or 07, whenever his extension kicked in) and JDM when they were two of the highest paid position players on the team, and those seemed to have mildly successful seasons.

Last season Alonso had a 127 wRC+ vs LHPs and a 120 wRC+ vs RHPs and for his career its 130 and 131, so he'd absolutely fill my hope of a core bat to the line up. While his adjusted home runs seem to go down in Fenway (like they do for pretty much all players because most guys hit at least "some" line drive home runs) when you look at his "field out" charts overlayed against Fenway Park, he looks like he'd more than make them up.

I can't figure out how to embed it properly, but here is a link to said spray chart below.

However, Yoshida is the DH and as much as I'd like to have Alonso, with the current configuration of Casas 1b, Devers 3b and Yoshida at DH, there is no feasible way for it to happen. It'd be great if there could be a way to have the top of the order go Duran, Campbell, Devers, Casas, Alonso, Anthony, Abreu. That sounds lovely and in many ways is exactly what I think the line up needs. But with the way the roster is presently constructed, it's just not possible.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/illustrator?playerId=624413&playerType=batter&name=Pete Alonso&tabSelection=0&shape=square&shapeName=Square (Instagram)&subTitle=&chartType=sprayChart&chartName=Spray Chart&pitcherThrows=&batterStands=&plateAppearanceResults=[]&pitchTypes=[]&seasonType=["R"]&pitchResults=[]&facingPlayer=[]&balls=[]&battedBallType=[]&years=[2024]&strikes=[]&outs=[]&selectedGames=[]&homeTeam=[]&awayTeam=[]&vsTeam=[]&exitVelocityGT=0&exitVelocityLT=125&pitchVelocityGT=0&pitchVelocityLT=105&launchAngleGT=-90&launchAngleLT=90&perspective=catcher&venue=3
I was hoping.... Is really the only feasible option for a RH bat the way our roster looks now is to sign Bregman to play 2nd for the time being then shuffle with Raffy to DH later? Not seeing too many options in how we can add the bat we need and some veteran presence.
 

TheDogMan

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Hamilton seems like he could have a good chunk of value. His 2024 wasn't much different from Andrés Giménez, but with an acceptable walk rate and league-average power.

View attachment 94137
View attachment 94139


View attachment 94138

I'm not sure if it's a fluke, but +8 DRS in one-fifth of a season's reps at 2B is pretty impressive.

Giménez is not very valuable on a 5/$95M deal but five years of a dirt cheap Hamilton may be.
The value a dirt cheap contract is only realized if the money saved buys or pays for what the team needs. Even with a couple of glaring needs Boston appears to be reticent to use its financial might to cover those needs. That being the case the cheap contracts only matter to help Mr. Henry make even more money.
 

YTF

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The value a dirt cheap contract is only realized if the money saved buys or pays for what the team needs. Even with a couple of glaring needs Boston appears to be reticent to use its financial might to cover those needs. That being the case the cheap contracts only matter to help Mr. Henry make even more money.
Seriously dude, can you just stop polluting the threads with this shit.
 

nvalvo

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Honest question: is current-day Pete Alonso better *against lefties* than Romy Gonzalez? Gonzalez had a better OPS in that split at .879 than Alonso has had since 2021.

But I’m not really sure how to find park adjustments on platoon splits, which seems important to the comparison. In any case, it might be closer than you’d think.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Honest question: is current-day Pete Alonso better *against lefties* than Romy Gonzalez? Gonzalez had a better OPS in that split at .879 than Alonso has had since 2021.

But I’m not really sure how to find park adjustments on platoon splits, which seems important to the comparison. In any case, it might be closer than you’d think.
Sure, but Romy is absolutely miserable against RHP. He crushed lefties and still ended up with an overall line of 286/306/417. It’s really hard to optimally use a bunch of RH who can’t hit RH and LH who can’t LH, you can only make so many moves before four are left with a bad matchup.
 

absintheofmalaise

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The value a dirt cheap contract is only realized if the money saved buys or pays for what the team needs. Even with a couple of glaring needs Boston appears to be reticent to use its financial might to cover those needs. That being the case the cheap contracts only matter to help Mr. Henry make even more money.
You've been asked numerous times by various people to do a better job posting, and so far, you have not done so. Why don't you take a break from here for a while and just read the board to get a better idea of what's expected of you.
If you can't talk about anything other than how cheap Henry is, don't bother.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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To add Pete Alonso's bat, I would move Yoshida to LF and Ceddanne to 10th man. Let Yoshida get healthy in ST and if he's raking, you can deal him.
 

pjheff

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To add Pete Alonso's bat, I would move Yoshida to LF and Ceddanne to 10th man. Let Yoshida get healthy in ST and if he's raking, you can deal him.
Yoshida had labrum surgery on October 3rd. Does anyone expect him to be fully available in Spring Training or to break camp with the big league squad?
 

SouthernBoSox

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Yoshida had labrum surgery on October 3rd. Does anyone expect him to be fully available in Spring Training or to break camp with the big league squad?
Cora mentioned how he hasn’t started throwing yet. I think he’s a long shot for opening day.
 

nvalvo

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Sure, but Romy is absolutely miserable against RHP. He crushed lefties and still ended up with an overall line of 286/306/417. It’s really hard to optimally use a bunch of RH who can’t hit RH and LH who can’t LH, you can only make so many moves before four are left with a bad matchup.
Okay, fair, but that’s not really an argument that a 1B who should be a DH has a role on this team as constructed.

To add Pete Alonso's bat, I would move Yoshida to LF and Ceddanne to 10th man. Let Yoshida get healthy in ST and if he's raking, you can deal him.
I guess this could make sense if the commitment is small enough, especially if Yoshida isn’t expected to be healthy from the jump.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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It’s really hard to optimally use a bunch of RH who can’t hit RH and LH who can’t LH, you can only make so many moves before four are left with a bad matchup.
Very well said.

This is another reason why - assuming no significant changes to the roster - I think it’s incredibly important to start both Anthony and Campbell from Opening Day. Neither have displayed an inability to hit same handed pitching in the upper minors. If they can continue that trend (which isn’t a given because they haven’t been facing MLB pitching, of course), they would double the number of hitters in the line up that are not black holes against one side or the other.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Since it seems he'll be the primary DH, is it possible he'll be able to swing the bat?
He hit through the injury all of last season, so I suspect he'll be able to DH long before he's ready to play the outfield. According to this article from last Saturday, he's expected to start dry swinging a bat within the next week or so. That would seemingly put him on track to be the Opening Day DH. Also noteworthy in Cora's comments is the acknowledgement that it was the shoulder that prevented Yoshida from playing the outfield and that if his shoulder is up to it, he'll be in the outfield mix this season.
 

joe dokes

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He hit through the injury all of last season, so I suspect he'll be able to DH long before he's ready to play the outfield. According to this article from last Saturday, he's expected to start dry swinging a bat within the next week or so. That would seemingly put him on track to be the Opening Day DH. Also noteworthy in Cora's comments is the acknowledgement that it was the shoulder that prevented Yoshida from playing the outfield and that if his shoulder is up to it, he'll be in the outfield mix this season.
That's interesting. I thought I clearly remembered him saying the opposite about Yoshida last year. (That is, he wasn't playing OF anyway). Doesn't matter.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Sure, but Romy is absolutely miserable against RHP. He crushed lefties and still ended up with an overall line of 286/306/417. It’s really hard to optimally use a bunch of RH who can’t hit RH and LH who can’t LH, you can only make so many moves before four are left with a bad matchup.
I agree that having batters who excel against LHP and RHP is the ideal. And I share the hope that Campbell, Anthony, Grissom, Mayer fit that description, and that Duran, Casas, Yoshida etc can improve a bit. But the Sox did fine last year using matchups and should be in a position to be even better against all pitching this year.

The Sox had the 5th best OPS against LHP in the AL and the 6th best OPS in the AL against RHP. And both of those numbers should improve significantly by fielding a competent second baseman and the return of Casas. (I posted earlier with a breakdown of the horrendous 225 plate appearances against LHP by Dalbec, Valdez, Cooper etc, where they collectively put up an OPS under .500. Just removing that putrid subset will more than offset O'Neill's 150 PAs against lefties, and we won't miss his really bad 300+ PAs against RHP (.693 OPS)).

As a point of comparison, the Yankees had a much bigger split, with the top OPS against RHP and the the 6th ranked offense in the AL against LHP, with greater than 50 point drop between the two. They also lost Soto and Torres, who were two of their three best hitters against LHP (only Judge and those two had an OPS over .705 against LHP). FWIW, Bellinger has a limited split but Goldschmidt really struggled against RHP last year.
 

YTF

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That's interesting. I thought I clearly remembered him saying the opposite about Yoshida last year. (That is, he wasn't playing OF anyway). Doesn't matter.
I think that heading into the season Cora did state that Yoshida was going to be the DH with Duran, O'Neill Abreu, Rafaela and RFsnyder being the outfield. I'm not sure how emphatic he may have been about no time in the OF for Yoshida, I think it was more a matter of "here's the plan".