The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

[SouthernBoSox]

Can you point me to the too many good outfielders they have? Feel free to use the entire system.



I understand your use of "utility" here, but Abreu seems to have established a floor well above Rafaela's.

I am suggesting they add Profar, which helps balance the lineup and add to first base depth, which is really lacking.

Roman Anthony projects to be a better version of Abreu. As soon as next year. You can make the argument they are pretty even in 2025, but 2026 and beyond there really isn’t a question that Roman will be a higher WAR player.

Because of this, they would be best served in using Abreu to address other parts of the system, rather than rostering two redundant players.

Having prospects like Roman and Campbell is a cheat code. You can trade away valuable major leaguers and improve your club just simply by having them take place of the lesser major leaguer.

I’d rather spend some money on Profar, given the risk return possibilities there and use Abreu to address system weaknesses rather than just keep Abreu burn a year of control and have this exact same situation next year.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What about signing Justin Turner to be the right handed bat? It may not do much for PR purposes but we are looking for righty 1b/3b/dh depth. He OPS+d 114 last year in full-time ABs. I see it as an upgrade from Romy as the back up corner infielder.

40 year old Justin Turner really shouldn't be playing 3B anymore. He played 33 innings there last season and did not acquit himself very well (2 errors in 7 chances).

And for what it's worth, Romy out-hit Turner last year vs LHP: .879 OPS in 130 PA vs .758 OPS in 141 PA. Even overall, Romy had a .723 OPS which isn't all that far off Turner's .737. I'm not seeing a clear cut upgrade there.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

It would cost a spot on the 40 man.

Unless we trade or DFA someone from the 40 man... .Is Sogard still on the 40 man? With Grissom, Campbell, Romy and Hamilton on the 40 man, I am not sure Sogard is a good use of a spot. But I could be wrong about that.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Unless we trade or DFA someone from the 40 man... .Is Sogard still on the 40 man? With Grissom, Campbell, Romy and Hamilton on the 40 man, I am not sure Sogard is a good use of a spot. But I could be wrong about that.

Campbell isn't on the 40-man at the moment.

 

[E5 Yaz]

40 year old Justin Turner really shouldn't be playing 3B anymore. He played 33 innings there last season and did not acquit himself very well (2 errors in 7 chances).

And for what it's worth, Romy out-hit Turner last year vs LHP: .879 OPS in 130 PA vs .758 OPS in 141 PA. Even overall, Romy had a .723 OPS which isn't all that far off Turner's .737. I'm not seeing a clear cut upgrade there.

But, other than that ...

 

[RedOctober3829]

I'm coming around to the idea that the Sox are all set, except maybe for C.

C - Wong (R)
1b - Casas (L)
2b - Grissom (R)
3b - Devers (L)
SS - Story (R)
LF - Yoshida (L)
CF - Duran (L)
RF - Abreu (L)
DH - Refsnyder (R)
Bench - Catcher, Campbell (R), Hamilton (L), Rafaela (R) - or maybe Duran in LF and Rafaela in CF, with Yoshida DH-ing.

I put Campbell on the bench but don't think he'd actually remain on the bench. I think he's likely to get a lot of playing time soon at the MLB level. Maybe he starts out in AAA before making the leap, but when he comes up, he'll likely play a lot. Where, though, is the question. There's not a lot of RH power in that lineup, however. Story is (when healthy) a good hitter. Grissom ought to be serviceable. Wong is a decent hitting catcher. Refsnyder hits lefties well but isn't suited for a full-time role. I think Campbell can be electric and if that happens, someone in that group above will be displaced.

Anthony should be coming up soon too, and I don't know who will go but someone's gonna be on the hot seat. Other than Casas and Devers, though, there's not a ton of raw power in that group. Good hitters, yes. Not a lot of power. They're going to score runs by getting on base, running the bases well, hitting tons of doubles, and sprinkling in some homers here and there. That actually probably would be a fun group to watch.

This lineup would be mediocre at best. They need another impact bat probably right handed.

 

[BaseballJones]

This lineup would be mediocre at best. They need another impact bat probably right handed.

Campbell might very well be that.

But I get it. I wanted them to retain O'Neill on a QO. Then I wanted Teoscar, even with his limitations. And I'm open to even signing Bregman. I'm just saying that it looks like they're not making any movement on a RH bat, so I'm seeing how the team can function well without that addition.

Having Story and Casas for a full season would help immensely. Having Campbell up and doing well as a major leaguer would help immensely. Having Grissom at 2b instead of the absolute worst 2b production in all MLB last year would help immensely.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Campbell isn't on the 40-man at the moment.

Do you expect him to be when the season starts?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Do you expect him to be when the season starts?

Irrelevant if we're talking about adding Cartaya in the next week. He'd need a 40-man spot now. Whether Campbell will need one and how they clear the spot for him is a future problem that could have solutions unavailable to the team right now, such as putting someone on the 60-day IL (Sandoval, for example) and not cutting anyone.

 

[bsj]

This lineup would be mediocre at best. They need another impact bat probably right handed.

100% agree.

 

[nighthob]

Is there a reason to trade Abreu, instead of, say, Rafaela?

Because Abreu has a lot more trade value.

 

[OCD SS]

Unless we trade or DFA someone from the 40 man... .Is Sogard still on the 40 man? With Grissom, Campbell, Romy and Hamilton on the 40 man, I am not sure Sogard is a good use of a spot. But I could be wrong about that.

I’m assuming the Dodgers DFA’d him to make room on their own 40-man, so the deal will have to bring back a low level player, not someone going right back in this 40…

 

[ZMart100]

C - Not sure we are going to see any more additions here for 2025. This is an organizational issue now that Teel has been traded. I think they can get by with Wong/Narvy this season, but in 2026 and beyond this is a real question mark, as the minor league catching depth is pretty bad right now.

I think the Red Sox need another body in MLB/AAA. Hickey isn't a good defensive catcher and hasn't hit. He should be in AA. My guess is they will get someone for #4 on the depth chart, but anywhere #1-4 is a possibility.

 

[Sox Pride]

Dodgers just DFA’d Diego Cartaya (catching prospect)
I would be very interested if I am the Sox

 

[Darnell's Son]

Dodgers just DFA’d Diego Cartaya (catching prospect)
I would be very interested if I am the Sox

No way! Really?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Campbell might very well be that.

But I get it. I wanted them to retain O'Neill on a QO. Then I wanted Teoscar, even with his limitations. And I'm open to even signing Bregman. I'm just saying that it looks like they're not making any movement on a RH bat, so I'm seeing how the team can function well without that addition.

Having Story and Casas for a full season would help immensely. Having Campbell up and doing well as a major leaguer would help immensely. Having Grissom at 2b instead of the absolute worst 2b production in all MLB last year would help immensely.

While I appreciate the intent (as in looking to function only with what is in house) that line up would be really bad both offensively AND defensively.

If they add nothing whatsoever from here on out (certainly possible), Anthony would have to look woefully overmatched in Spring Training to have him NOT start the season in MLB if what we have now is what it’s going to be. But even if he (and Campbell) did, there is no reason not to at worst go:

Duran - LF, Story - SS, Devers - 3b, Casas - 1b, Abreu - RF, Yoshida / Refsnyder - DH, Wong - C, Hamilton / Grissom - 2b, Rafaela - CF.

Ref/Yoshida, G/H, Gonzalez, whatever is the back up catcher.

The team has several limitations, and an offense made up of those pieces isn’t going to be all that good anyway, but there is no reason to compound the problem and intentionally make one of it’s strengths (OF defense) into a weakness if you’re not doing it to add an impact bat (ie if they’d added Hernandez, which they did not).

Luckily a) I don’t think Anthony will suck in spring training and b) I’ve seen nothing from Breslow to make me think he’d allow the line up to be THAT thin as “the plan” (even injuries, I mean when Casas went down he got Cooper and D Smith, it’s not like he tried to stick Franchy Cordero there or some other indefensible thing).

 

[allmanbro]

I mean, a human makes that spreadsheet originally and the results end up close to meaningless, if you keep an eye on how reality compares to projections.

I check the Fangraphs projections too, not sure there is anything better, but that doesn't make them good.

I'm not speaking to Jon specifically here, who I am sure knows all this, but just continuing the conversation on projections that's been weaving through all this.

Projections are meant to work in aggregate, not necessarily for individual players. Aside from randomness, they miss when players make a genuine change (like we hope Abreu did with his defense, or Duran did with everything). Outliers also get pretty heavily regressed, which is why you hardly ever see projections above about 6 WAR or so.

I'd be interested to know what the sample size would need to be for stabilization for a given projection system. That is, how big of a pool of players would you need in order to be confident that the aggregate projection is pretty good? It's definitely well above 26, so you can't just figure the team level projections are ok even if you don't like a few individual ones. But how close is Steamer to that? 100? 500?

 

[TheDogMan]

Jurickson Profar is flying under the radar but would be a great RH bat (885 OPS against LHP and also switch hits) to provide 2B/LF insurance if they go with Campbell and Anthony. You’d probably still need to move on from Yoshida and rotate multiple players through the DH spot.

Duran
Story
Devers
Profar
Casas
Abreu/Refsnyder
Wong
Anthony
Campbell

Rafaela
Refsnyder
Gonzalez
Backup C

I know it is expensive but we should add a rh dh bat who can play a little first base and get whatever we can foe a subsidized Yoshida. Heck, he hurts our roster construction so badly I might even release him in spite of his one good tool. Bloom screwed us twice, Mookie and Yoshida, I can forgive his other errors but those two stick in my craw.

 

[pjheff]

I am suggesting they add Profar, which helps balance the lineup and add to first base depth, which is really lacking.

Roman Anthony projects to be a better version of Abreu. As soon as next year. You can make the argument they are pretty even in 2025, but 2026 and beyond there really isn’t a question that Roman will be a higher WAR player.

Because of this, they would be best served in using Abreu to address other parts of the system, rather than rostering two redundant players.

Having prospects like Roman and Campbell is a cheat code. You can trade away valuable major leaguers and improve your club just simply by having them take place of the lesser major leaguer.

I’d rather spend some money on Profar, given the risk return possibilities there and use Abreu to address system weaknesses rather than just keep Abreu burn a year of control and have this exact same situation next year.

I don’t see the problem with the exact same situation. You have an All-Star CF (under organizational control for four more seasons), a Gold Glove RFer (five), and your best prospect (six) with a backup whose glove is his carrying tool (seven). While Profar is righthanded, I don’t see a much improved situation by overpaying him coming off of a career year as he enters his age 32 season and decline phase.

 

[marcoscutaro]

I’d offer Profar a short contract with options and opt outs and see if he bites. We haven’t heard much (anything?) about his market at all.

 

[Whoop-La White]

If they are all-in on Rafaela in CF, that moves Duran to LF, and pretty much locks in the outfield meaning any effort to lure Profar will require convincing him to be a backup or DH if they can move Yoshida. I’d love to have that depth but that is an unlikely sell to a guy who played a full season last year and hit 24 home runs.

If they want to add RH power the only place to add it at the moment is the bench or 2B. Which puts Boston in the position of needing Bregman as much as he needs them.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Been a couple days since we reviewed bullpen options here… AAV estimates based on various reports, but who really knows…

TOP TARGETS — WILL WANT 3-4 YEARS AND 13M+ AAV
Tanner Scott — McAdam reports he is looking for 4/80
Jeff Hoffman — Wants Clay Holmes’ 3/39, which may or may not similarly include his looking to be given the opportunity to start.

RECENT CLOSING EXPERIENCE: MAY WANT 2-3 YEARS AND 10M AAV
Kirby Yates — effective for TEX last year, but 38 years old
Carlos Estevez — pitched well as non-closer for Phillies last year, but this suggests his effectiveness derived from great BABIP luck (https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/arizona-diamondbacks-analysis/potential-d-backs-free-agency-target-carlos-estevez)
Kenley Jansen — feels unlikely


OTHERS STILL ON THE BOARD — MIGHT TAKE 1-2 YEARS — Guessing RHP preferred post-Chapman
Kyle Finnegan — Did close last year, but fits better here. Durable, if thoroughly unremarkable.
David Robertson
Andrew Kittredge
Jakob Junis — may prioritze a team where he could start
AJ Minter LHP
Tommy Kahnle — not a LHP!
Ryan Yarbrough LHP

OFF THE BOARD
Aoldis Chapman (1/11)
Clay Holmes (3/39)
Jordan Romano (1/9)
Blake Treinen (2/22)

 

[simplicio]

With that whole list in hand I'm still in on Hoffman.

 

[RobertsSteal]

Been a couple days since we reviewed bullpen options here… AAV estimates based on various reports, but who really knows…

OTHERS STILL ON THE BOARD — MIGHT TAKE 1-2 YEARS — Guessing RHP preferred post-Chapman
Kyle Finnegan — Did close last year, but fits better here. Durable, if thoroughly unremarkable.
David Robertson
Andrew Kittredge
Jakob Junis — may prioritze a team where he could start
AJ Minter LHP
Tommy Kahnle LHP
Ryan Yarbrough LHP

Kahnle is a righty, yeah?

 

[Manuel Aristides]

I know it's generally stupid to pay the ultra-premium RP price but I can't help thinking that Scott is the bauble that makes the most sense for this roster. The bullpen was the Achilles heel down the stretch, and Chapman is an interesting addition but one I'd feel much much better about as the "bonus arm" that might spike and not the guy we're counting on the lift the ship.

 

[Bread of Yaz]

With that whole list in hand I'm still in on Hoffman.

Hoffman unfortunately recently gave an interview saying he wants to start and get a Holmes-type contract

 

[RS2004foreever]

This lineup would be mediocre at best. They need another impact bat probably right handed.

At best it is better than mediocre. But there is risk all up and down that lineup (Duran/Abreu eg). Story is an unknown. We really have hopes but no certainty with the kids.
We need another top 30 bat. The ones in the top 31 that were available measured by 2024 RC+ were Teoscar, Profar, Alonso and Santander. They all have issues. It would suck giving up a pick to sign Santander when we didn't attach one to O'Neill. I think we need one of those bats but none of them really fit.

 

[Fishy1]

With that whole list in hand I'm still in on Hoffman.

Would love to have him. Classic case of a guy who didn't have the juice to strike guys out as a starter but who thrives with the extra 3-4 mph he gets in relief. He would really go a long way toward foreclosing any possibility of our bullpen being a mess like it was last year.

I don't worry as much about relievers being on the wrong side of 30, either. I really don't know if the evidence bears this out but I would be interested to see if there's more effective older relievers than there are starting pitchers.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Been a couple days since we reviewed bullpen options here… AAV estimates based on various reports, but who really knows…

TOP TARGETS — WILL WANT 3-4 YEARS AND 13M+ AAV
Tanner Scott — McAdam reports he is looking for 4/80
Jeff Hoffman — Wants Clay Holmes’ 3/39, which may or may not similarly include his looking to be given the opportunity to start.

RECENT CLOSING EXPERIENCE: MAY WANT 2-3 YEARS AND 10M AAV
Kirby Yates — effective for TEX last year, but 38 years old
Carlos Estevez — pitched well as non-closer for Phillies last year, but this suggests his effectiveness derived from great BABIP luck (https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/arizona-diamondbacks-analysis/potential-d-backs-free-agency-target-carlos-estevez)
Kenley Jansen — feels unlikely


OTHERS STILL ON THE BOARD — MIGHT TAKE 1-2 YEARS — Guessing RHP preferred post-Chapman
Kyle Finnegan — Did close last year, but fits better here. Durable, if thoroughly unremarkable.
David Robertson
Andrew Kittredge
Jakob Junis — may prioritze a team where he could start
AJ Minter LHP
Tommy Kahnle LHP
Ryan Yarbrough LHP

OFF THE BOARD
Aoldis Chapman (1/11)
Clay Holmes (3/39)
Jordan Romano (1/9)
Blake Treinen (2/22)

As a fan nothing is worse than cheering for a team with a shaky closer. It's like rooting for a hockey team with a bad goalie of a football team with a bad kicker. So I will always want to pay for a closer just because I hate 9th inning blown saves, but that doesn't mean it is a wise investment.

 

[RedOctober3829]

At best it is better than mediocre. But there is risk all up and down that lineup (Duran/Abreu eg). Story is an unknown. We really have hopes but no certainty with the kids.
We need another top 30 bat. The ones in the top 31 that were available measured by 2024 RC+ were Teoscar, Profar, Alonso and Santander. They all have issues. It would suck giving up a pick to sign Santander when we didn't attach one to O'Neill. I think we need one of those bats but none of them really fit.

I don't care about giving up a pick if they sign Bregman and that would be the only target they'd be signing that would have a QO attached. It's a wash once Pivetta signs somewhere so it doesn't matter to begin with. Just go sign Bregman, another reliever, and call it an offseason. I don't know what they're waiting for.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Ideally you find the next Jeff Hoffman instead of paying a lot of money for a guy’s age 32-34 season. I think the Sox have a pretty intriguing set of arms as is, I wouldn’t devote a lot of years and money to anyone. See who is willing to take a one year deal.

 

[BaseballJones]

Kahnle is a RHP. But I wouldn't at all mind him on the Sox. Robertson either. I wouldn't spend huge dollars on Scott or Hoffman, seeing what they're looking for.

Kahnle, Robertson, even Yarbrough would help.

 

[Dustin the Wind]

Kahnle is a RHP. But I wouldn't at all mind him on the Sox. Robertson either. I wouldn't spend huge dollars on Scott or Hoffman, seeing what they're looking for.

Kahnle, Robertson, even Yarbrough would help.

Kahnle, who ironically went to the same high school as Jeff Hoffman!

 

[RedOctober3829]

Ideally you find the next Jeff Hoffman instead of paying a lot of money for a guy’s age 32-34 season. I think the Sox have a pretty intriguing set of arms as is, I wouldn’t devote a lot of years and money to anyone. See who is willing to take a one year deal.

Kirby Yates on a 1-year deal would make a ton of sense. He fits their philosophy of missing bats.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Kirby Yates on a 1-year deal would make a ton of sense. He fits their philosophy of missing bats.

Agree. I don’t think the Sox are that desperate for another bullpen arm, so might as well and see who ends up willing to take a short term deal- somebody will.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Been a couple days since we reviewed bullpen options here… AAV estimates based on various reports, but who really knows…

TOP TARGETS — WILL WANT 3-4 YEARS AND 13M+ AAV
Tanner Scott — McAdam reports he is looking for 4/80
Jeff Hoffman — Wants Clay Holmes’ 3/39, which may or may not similarly include his looking to be given the opportunity to start.

RECENT CLOSING EXPERIENCE: MAY WANT 2-3 YEARS AND 10M AAV
Kirby Yates — effective for TEX last year, but 38 years old
Carlos Estevez — pitched well as non-closer for Phillies last year, but this suggests his effectiveness derived from great BABIP luck (https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/arizona-diamondbacks-analysis/potential-d-backs-free-agency-target-carlos-estevez)
Kenley Jansen — feels unlikely


OTHERS STILL ON THE BOARD — MIGHT TAKE 1-2 YEARS — Guessing RHP preferred post-Chapman
Kyle Finnegan — Did close last year, but fits better here. Durable, if thoroughly unremarkable.
David Robertson
Andrew Kittredge
Jakob Junis — may prioritze a team where he could start
AJ Minter LHP
Tommy Kahnle — not a LHP!
Ryan Yarbrough LHP

OFF THE BOARD
Aoldis Chapman (1/11)
Clay Holmes (3/39)
Jordan Romano (1/9)
Blake Treinen (2/22)

Chris Martin?

 

[Sox Pride]

No way! Really?

Ah - I see someone beat me to it by a few hours - which was strange because I actually perused the thread looking to see if it was there before posting.

Also strange, I was looking at the Dodgers (stacked) roster to see if there was a match where we could trade for one of their catching prospects and found out about the DFA when I was googling their catching prospects for more info.

 

[jmanny24]

I don't care about giving up a pick if they sign Bregman and that would be the only target they'd be signing that would have a QO attached. It's a wash once Pivetta signs somewhere so it doesn't matter to begin with. Just go sign Bregman, another reliever, and call it an offseason. I don't know what they're waiting for.

This is an important point, the pick isn't a big deal at all with Pivetta giving you one. I'm with Red, a reliever I'm ok if they do or don't sign one, but go and sign Bregman

 

[Rasputin]

This is an important point, the pick isn't a big deal at all with Pivetta giving you one. I'm with Red, a reliever I'm ok if they do or don't sign one, but go and sign Bregman

The pick's value is completely independent of other moves.

We have to figure out if Rafaela, Grissom, Anthony, and Campbell are everyday players. Bregman makes that harder and all of them are young enough to be around long after Bregman falls off a cliff.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Been a couple days since we reviewed bullpen options here… AAV estimates based on various reports, but who really knows…

TOP TARGETS — WILL WANT 3-4 YEARS AND 13M+ AAV
Tanner Scott — McAdam reports he is looking for 4/80
Jeff Hoffman — Wants Clay Holmes’ 3/39, which may or may not similarly include his looking to be given the opportunity to start.

RECENT CLOSING EXPERIENCE: MAY WANT 2-3 YEARS AND 10M AAV
Kirby Yates — effective for TEX last year, but 38 years old
Carlos Estevez — pitched well as non-closer for Phillies last year, but this suggests his effectiveness derived from great BABIP luck (https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/arizona-diamondbacks-analysis/potential-d-backs-free-agency-target-carlos-estevez)
Kenley Jansen — feels unlikely


OTHERS STILL ON THE BOARD — MIGHT TAKE 1-2 YEARS — Guessing RHP preferred post-Chapman
Kyle Finnegan — Did close last year, but fits better here. Durable, if thoroughly unremarkable.
David Robertson
Andrew Kittredge
Jakob Junis — may prioritze a team where he could start
AJ Minter LHP
Tommy Kahnle — not a LHP!
Ryan Yarbrough LHP

OFF THE BOARD
Aoldis Chapman (1/11)
Clay Holmes (3/39)
Jordan Romano (1/9)
Blake Treinen (2/22)

I've always liked Kittredge and Minter, but Hoffman or Scott would be the real prize. If they think they're competing in 2025 or 2026 getting either guy is an aggressive move without being in the super long term contract category.

 

[chrisfont9]

No way! Really?

His AA k rate suggests he’s a stalled prospect.

 

[NickEsasky]

Cartaya is the type of example where I hesitate to count on “sure thing” prospects to lead us to the promised land.

 

[simplicio]

Cartaya is the type of example where I hesitate to count on “sure thing” prospects to lead us to the promised land.

Nobody gets labeled a sure thing without performing at least at AA, do they?

 

[NickEsasky]

Nobody gets labeled a sure thing without performing at least at AA, do they?

Totally fair. I realize it’s not apples to apples with our prospect situation but I just lean more skeptic when it comes to prospects. This kid was the biggest international signing, did tear up high A, and was a top 25 prospect for BA two years in a row.

 

[simplicio]

Oh for sure, and for me it's kind of a weird thing in the industry where prospects can get listed so high without clearing the AA hurdle cause so many people fail there, but I guess you can't expect too much from a reductionist simple numerical ranking system.

 

[chrisfont9]

You can’t even totally rely on a guy clearing the MLB rookie bar sometimes. But yeah, there degrees of uncertainty and the c.w. seems to be that the uncertainty starts to drop when a guy aces AA.

 

[Devizier]

I check the Fangraphs projections too, not sure there is anything better, but that doesn't make them good.

I think Tom Tango highlighted limitations of projections well. I do think they offer a better discussion point than “I think…” or “Can you provide any reason why…”. It’s a jumping off point and no one takes them as a rigid number.

A more informative projection would provide confidence intervals of some sort, or bootstraps, or whatever.

 

[jon abbey]

I think Tom Tango highlighted limitations of projections well. I do think they offer a better discussion point than “I think…” or “Can you provide any reason why…”. It’s a jumping off point and no one takes them as a rigid number.

A more informative projection would provide confidence intervals of some sort, or bootstraps, or whatever.

I think they need to add in some common sense human tweaking, guys like Jarren Duran or Luke Weaver or Sean Manaea have changed approaches and been dominant doing it for an extended period. I’m not saying to project continued dominance at the same level for guys like that, but too often to me it seems to be regressed too much.

 

[burstnbloom]

Cartaya is the type of example where I hesitate to count on “sure thing” prospects to lead us to the promised land.

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but if this is in comparison to Roman Anthony or Kristian Campbell, I don't think there is a compelling similarity other than none of them had debuted. Carteya is a bat first catcher who was a heavy bonus baby at 16. That pedigree raised his profile significantly when he hit a bunch of home runs in A ball at 19/20 but he was always striking out around 28% of the time and showed EXTREME pull tendencies. There are many examples of players like this that couldn't make the leap to AA because their approach is easily exploitable for more advanced pitching. His profile is more like an alternate reality, non injured, catcher version of Yoelin Cespedes than the big 3.

The Red Sox "cant miss" prospects are significantly more advanced than Carteya. Neither Campbell nor Anthony have ever been overwhelmed by swing and miss at any level, and have advanced far beyond high A, which was the last time Carteya's production warranted any regard. There is always risk with a prospect, but totally busting out for these two guys is very unlikely. That doesn't mean they are both going to have .420 OBPs as major league players or ever make an all star team, but they are very likely to be solid regulars, given their performance and its similarity with past performers. There is probably more variance for Mayer. He does swing and miss more than the other two and the back injury kept us from seeing if he could make the leap to that level.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Shows you how good our system is and has been where Mayer is almost a forgotton guy now. He would be a top prospect in many teams lists.