The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?
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Romy was valuable when the team was giving lots of SS/2B at bats to Valdez and Hamilton, guys who could not hit LHP. if instead, the starters are a mix of Story, Grissom, and Campbell; then Romy is of much less use.
Third might be more important, as Wong spent some time at first at least.
I am extremely confident Ceddane could handle third. He needs some reps there anyway IMO. Greatly enhances his profile.
He's played a decent amount of third in the minors: 80 games, 75 games started.
This team has three batters who have struggled a lot against LHP (Abreu, Yoshida and Duran) and while they have Refsnyder to play for Yoshida or Abreu, he certainly can’t sub for both on the same day. Demoting Romy means regularly starting two of Yoshida, Duran and Abreu against LHP, which is anything but ideal. If they need to demote someone to free up space for another bench bat I’d think it would make more sense to demote Hamilton.
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A lot of this discussion will likely center around who wins the primary 2B job. If it is Grissom, who it seems will be given every chance, this probably means Campbell starts the year in AAA. Hopefully playing several different positions. Romy and Rafaela both have the ability to cover multiple positions on the field. Hamilton can really only play 2B. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
Yes, Romy over Hamilton seems to be the best move for the team as currently constructed.
I think Campbell starts the season in WOOstah unless he just flat out forces his way into the lineup as an everyday player during spring training. If Breslow makes another deal somewhere, I expect he tries to work Hamilton into it if he can. His speed is an asset that most teams can use, he's shown to be a decent defender at 2B and he doesn't hit free agency until 2030.
It really is remarkable what a cheat code it is to have projectable high level production from within the system. Because Abreu is so redundant with Roman, they can really go in a lot of directions with an Abreu trade. So much so that they do not need a major league piece in an Abreu deal. That's an enormous luxury.
I continue to think they should make a move for a right handed hitter who can handle left field, shift Duran and Rafaela over, and trade Abreu for the best minor league package they can get.
I continue to think they should make a move for a right handed hitter who can handle left field, shift Duran and Rafaela over, and trade Abreu for the best minor league package they can get.
Hamilton would be a nice piece for the Angels in a Taylor Ward trade. The Angels are a bit too right handed and their 2b is Rengifo, who is one year from free agency, doesn’t hit RHP well and is more of a super utility player than a true 2b (his defense at 2b isn’t great). He is often pulled to 3b to cover for the chronically injured Anthony Rendon.
A Ward for Hamilton trade would be a good trade for both teams, though the Angels are reportedly interested in major league ready starting pitching. Hamilton and Fitts for Ward is more than Ward is worth (per BTV) but if the Angels could throw something else in the trade it could be a solid move for both teams.
The Taylor Ward talk makes no sense to me.
Projected fWAR by Steamer
Taylor Ward - 2.5 at 683 PA for 4.4 million
Cedanne Rafaela - 1.5 at 494 PA for 6 million
Wilyer Abreu - 1.6 at 473 PA for 750k
Duran 3.2 at 760k
I know we're all trying to find improvements but we're talking about a win if Abreu tanks. For non WAR talk, They would without jumping through hoops and displacing guys for a 31 year old who will have 150 better PA a season but not be better than what they have in all other aspects or have nearly replicated with Refsnyder.
Murphy or Tanner Scott would improve the overall team more.
Projected fWAR by Steamer
Taylor Ward - 2.5 at 683 PA for 4.4 million
Cedanne Rafaela - 1.5 at 494 PA for 6 million
Wilyer Abreu - 1.6 at 473 PA for 750k
Duran 3.2 at 760k
I know we're all trying to find improvements but we're talking about a win if Abreu tanks. For non WAR talk, They would without jumping through hoops and displacing guys for a 31 year old who will have 150 better PA a season but not be better than what they have in all other aspects or have nearly replicated with Refsnyder.
Murphy or Tanner Scott would improve the overall team more.
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I'd hate to see Fitts moved for just 2 years of Ward, which is likely all they will need from him, but I realize you have to give to get.
As there are two corner OF positions, I don’t see Anthony and Abreu as redundant, and I certainly wouldn’t move Wilyer to get Rafaela’s bat in the lineup.
Taylor Ward is a decent hitter and Ceddanne Rafaela is not. Since Duran can play CF well, there's a very easy way to significantly upgrade the lineup while giving up very little in defense.
I like Hamilton and it’s a nice luxury to have him on the roster with the potential starters at 2b both young and unproven, but a Hamilton for Ward trade (their BTV values are very close) is a really nice move for both teams.
If the Sox really want another RHB it’s Hamilton who likely starts the season in the minors if they sign one. Ward’s bat (still under arbitration the next two years) would replaces Rafaela’s in the lineup without the team having to commit to an expensive, more entitled free agent long-term. He’s also better fielder than more expensive options like Santander.
On paper he is an improvement in some areas. But there is no way he is playing 156 games like he did last season with Rafaela and Refsnyder on the roster and Anthony almost ready to go. And reducing a guys playing time 2 years before free agency is not going to go over well when he just had his 2nd best season. It would also hurt him with arbitration. I'd be requesting a trade the minute it was obvious I was getting 400 plate appearances max.
He'd be a solid player on a team that needs a star.
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I know some thinks it’s not the right thing to do since they extended him a year ago, but it seems clear to me that the guy to try to move is Rafaela- nobody here seems to want him playing full time in the near or mid term, and his defensive abilities are largely wasted on a team with good defenders and better hitters at all the positions he’s plays.
These projections are not useless but they and aren't worth the internet they're posted on either--they're expecting Wilyer to be a net negative defender next year even though pretty much everyone's eye test and every defensive system loved him last year. He takes great routes and has a superlative arm and he got rewarded for it with a gold glove. I don't get it. They're bizarre and a lot of people seem to treat them like gospel.
Nonetheless, I agree on Ward. He's not a good defender and he's about to be on the wrong side of 30.
The outfield is not as deep as it appears. If anyone is going to get moved from this group, it'll be Duran--but it won't be for a couple of years, 2027, when he's arb 3, IMO. They're going to want to see who stands out from the group of Ceddanne, Anthony, and Wilyer first. If they move one of them and then Anthony bombs or Ceddanne puts up a .200/.230/375, or god forbid, both of those things happen or someone gets really, really hurt, we'll be up a creek sans paddle.
To the larger point of moving assets... I'm a fan of using good pieces to get great pieces, but I'd much, much prefer they do it with expiring assets rather than cheap young ones who could still improve. Right now, pretty much everybody is pre-arb or in arb one. That will change in a year or two, and at that point I think we'll see a flurry of deals. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Houck or Duran get moved two years from now.
I still think if we're looking to immediately improve our handedness, it's by replacing Yoshida. And I don't think that happens till he recuperates some value, because right now probably the best we could do is a bad salary exchange with someone like Seattle.
Ya, I honestly think the non-Steamer arguments are better. Just trying to demonstrate that there isn't much difference between who they already have. He would be unhappy with his situation here and I really can't see them displacing Rafaela when they just locked him up to a team friendly deal.
You might be right about this.
I could also see them dealing Hamilton for the reasons @grimshaw outlines.
I think Hamilton's got more potential than we give him credit for. The bat will never be good, but if he can give a wrc+ of 90 or better, his offensive floor will be raised by his exceptional speed. Plenty of teams would love to have a second baseman with as good of a floor as he has.
Hamilton is basically a 2B only guy. I don't really see where fits. Seems like there's some other team out there that could fit him in a starter's spot for a few years but he's likely a AAAA guy taking over for injured starters. The Sox have 2-3 guys (depending on what you think of Rafaela at 2B) ahead of him and decent depth behind him. He clogs up a 40-man spot too.
I agree he's worth dealing.
I think he's be a good defender at 2B and a passable one at SS. He was one of the best base stealers in the league last year. His offensive floor is raised by his speed. The guy was on pace for 40 steals and had only been caught 4 times.
Standards for second baseman are quite low. Lots of teams would be happy to have him starting for them.
Hamilton seems like he could have a good chunk of value. His 2024 wasn't much different from Andrés Giménez, but with an acceptable walk rate and league-average power.
I'm not sure if it's a fluke, but +8 DRS in one-fifth of a season's reps at 2B is pretty impressive.
Giménez is not very valuable on a 5/$95M deal but five years of a dirt cheap Hamilton may be.
I think the issue would be that other teams have the same concerns and don’t value him enough to give up something substantial.
IMO, I like the idea of moving Abreu/Hamilton to get back an RH OF and a highly regarded catcher. Catcher is the easiest position to really upgrade the team right now.
Yeah, I can believe those numbers. I think people are down on Hamilton because his arm doesn't play at SS and the bat is weak, but he showed outstanding range at times. Which isn't surprising, he's insanely fast. Park him at 2B and he'd have a lot of success in this league, I think.
I'm remembering that he also had some sneaky power, especially as the season went on. A few of his HR's were legit.
I should avoid all these threads, because speculation about trading Abreu for some player I know little about gives me agita.
I'm curious what people think about Seiya Suzuki? I believe has has around 2yrs and 34m left on his deal. He could play LF and DH some. His OBP and OPS have increased in each of his 3 seasons over here. I like guys that get on base at over a .350 clip as a rule. To me that is more valuable than a guy that hits 30 HR but is barely over .300 OBP. The Cubs have indicated they'd be willing to move him. What is his BTV value? What would the Red Sox be able to offer that the Cubs would want or need?
Duran CF
Devers 3B
Suzuki LF
Casas 1B
Story SS
Yoshida DH
Wong C
Abreu RF
Grissom 2B
Rafaela SU
Romy U
Narvaez C
Hamilton IF
This is a really good, balanced, deep, and versatile lineup and bench. Lots of guys that get on base to keep line moving. Campbell and Anthony could start in AAA, unless some combination of Abreu, Grissom, Hamilton, Romy would be going back to Cubs, then one or both could slide right into 2B or RF.
edit: totally forgot about Refsnyder. I guess it'd depend on who was in the trade, but Romy or Hamilton could always start at AAA to make room for him.
Duran CF
Devers 3B
Suzuki LF
Casas 1B
Story SS
Yoshida DH
Wong C
Abreu RF
Grissom 2B
Rafaela SU
Romy U
Narvaez C
Hamilton IF
This is a really good, balanced, deep, and versatile lineup and bench. Lots of guys that get on base to keep line moving. Campbell and Anthony could start in AAA, unless some combination of Abreu, Grissom, Hamilton, Romy would be going back to Cubs, then one or both could slide right into 2B or RF.
edit: totally forgot about Refsnyder. I guess it'd depend on who was in the trade, but Romy or Hamilton could always start at AAA to make room for him.
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He’s absolutely the ideal candidate from a batting perspective but after the Cubs dealt Bellinger is seems far more unlikely they’ll deal him.
He does seem pissed he’s not playing in the field though.
He’s very low key been one of the best right handed bats in baseball the last two years. Given his lack of defense ability, it seems like it might be challenging to roster both he and Yoshida.
Suzuki would be a great fit on the roster (sans Yoshida, see below), but he is in kind of a weird spot trade wise. His salary is right in line with his value so it theoretically shouldn't take much to acquire him, but he is also a key part of the Cubs lineup.
Since they tried and failed to trade for Luzardo, you could offer them something like Crawford and Yoshida. Crawford joins the back of their rotation and Yoshida replaces 90% of his bat in the lineup. Crawford's positive trade value cancels out Yoshida's negative value to get the swap close to net zero each way, but the Cubs still acquire 2 major leaguers. Ultimately, unless the Cubs really like Crawford's underlying stats they would rather just keep Suzuki.
Since they tried and failed to trade for Luzardo, you could offer them something like Crawford and Yoshida. Crawford joins the back of their rotation and Yoshida replaces 90% of his bat in the lineup. Crawford's positive trade value cancels out Yoshida's negative value to get the swap close to net zero each way, but the Cubs still acquire 2 major leaguers. Ultimately, unless the Cubs really like Crawford's underlying stats they would rather just keep Suzuki.
Yeah but they got Kyle Tucker to play OF. I'd like to think they could find the at bats for both of the Japanese hitters.
The reports of the Cubs possibly moving Suzuki were in tandem with the reports of possibly moving Bellinger. It was apparently and either/or thing, not a both have to go thing. So with Bellinger gone, I don't think Suzuki is going anywhere.
Got it, Thanks. I think Morel also plays some OF. Not sure what they have coming up?
edit: Looks like Owen Caissie is their #2 overall and likely to debut this season.
Another possibility is that Mayer is ready to come up before Campbell and that he or Story goes to 2B and the other is at SS.
You'd think with Story, Grissom, Campbell, Rafaela, Mayer and Romy, MI is pretty covered and Hamilton's value may never be higher after his somewhat surprising season. Like others said, his floor is pretty high with his speed, ability to play 2B and his cost.
he was traded to the Rays at the deadline for Paredes
This is also true and he’s reported to have a no trade clause so could block a trade if it was for a role that was majority DH. You’d have to put him in LF which means you’ve got to move Abreu.
Whether or not Rafaela’s deal is “team friendly” is yet to be determined. He’d certainly be making a lot less this year if not for that contract and that would make concerns like this less pressing.
I think what Ward also offers is a viable plan that isn’t expensive if you want to subsidize a trade for Yoshida.
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Owen Caissie is an OF and their #2 overall prospect who looks ready to debut.
You don't have to trade Abreu yet. He fits best in RF and as good is Anthony will likely be, he is only 20.
Athletic was reporting today that Hoffman is seeking something akin to Holmes' 3/$38m deal, presumably with an eye on starting like Holmes is. While I don't see a way we can offer him a starter spot, I think I'd be pretty pleased with Breslow giving him that deal to close?
Eh, the age 32-34 years of a guy with a career 4.63 FIP and BB rate of 4? Wes Gardner is one of his top comps. He’s been very good the last two years but the shelf life of middle relievers can be pretty short. Hes projected as a one win guy. I’d pass, I think the Sox have a ton of interesting arms in the pen and don’t need him.
I’m pretty much out on giving pen guys anything more than 2 years. Too much volatility.
I’d rather just give a 1 year deal to someone like Robertson or Kittredge.
I’d rather just give a 1 year deal to someone like Robertson or Kittredge.
He’s not a good defender? Ward’s been +6 in LF according to OAA over the last two seasons (over 2000 innings) and +3 OAA in 24’.
Neither here nor there as I dont think the Cubs have any interest in trading Suzuki, but Suzuki's deal is quite a bit below market. Hes averaged ~3 wins a year since coming over on an upward trend (up to close to a 140 wRC+ last season). He's one of the better RH bats in the game at this point. That player is getting well more than 2/34 (what remains on his deal) on the open market. They would get significant offers for him if he was actually available (I dont think he really was unless they really couldnt move off Bellinger).
Suzuki's remaining contract is 2/$38M/$19M AAV for anyone trading for him. I would still love to have him at that price, but if by citing his 3ish WAR you are implying he is worth the $9-10M per win that gets thrown around I don't think that applies to DH types.
Joc Pederson as a pure DH (151 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR) just signed for 2/$37M/$18.5M AAV. The platoon concerns and no defense certainly weigh him down a bit.
Teoscar Hernandez is a similar player (134 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR) but older, and just signed for 3/$66M/$22M AAV.
Profar (139 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR) and Santander (129 wRC+ 3.3 fWAR) are both pretty good comps so it will be interesting to see what they end up signing for. MLBTR predicted Profar at 3/$45M/$15M AAV and Santander at 4/$80M/$20M AAV.
Suzuki as a 30 year old free agent is certainly getting more than 2 years, probably 4 or 5. But I think the AAV stays in that $20-22M range. So there is a bit of excess value on his current contract, but IMO not more than say $5M.
I didnt mean to suggest that he would get 5/150 or something, but all the numbers you're talking about are substantially more than what he is owed; term matters a lot 2/38 is a dramatically different deal that 4/80. I also think he'd likely get more than all of the guys referenced (I'd certainly take him way before any of them), hes younger than Pederson/Hernandez and while not certainly not a good defender, is a lot more passable than the Pederson/Hernandez types. Profar is a who knows; he spent more of his career not being able to hit well (career wRC+ of 99 and 2024 is the only year he was above 110).