I feel we had this same discussion about Refsnyder after the 2022 season (he was quite good against RHPs) then he was absolutely horrendous against them in 2023, then decent against them in 2024. It’s almost like once someone makes an adjustment or fixes mechanics, we all forget that other teams are going to adjust to that.
Those players that are able to continually adjust and adapt become starters and in some cases stars. Those that don’t remain part time players or are out of the majors.
In some ways, I agree that the idea of needing a RH bat is overblown. Someone like O’Neill doesn‘t solve the problem. The Red Sox need, and have needed for a long time a core bat that can hit BOTH ledthanded and righthanded pitching. The problem they face is that the vast majority of the line up are not “confidence picks” to be able to adequately handle both LHPs and RHPs, which makes the line up on a whole very susceptible to exploitation, specifically against LHPs because they have neutralized the team‘s 3 best players (Devers, Duran, Casas).
The team has too many players that cannot reasonably be expected to hit same handed pitching with any consistency based on their time in Boston. They are, on balance significantly below average against LHPs (Abreu, Yoshida, Hamilton) or RHPs (Refsnyder, González) and guys that kind of just can’t be depended upon (Story).
Since I find it unlikely that MLB is going to allow the Red Sox to have a 30 man roster while other teams are allowed 26, they need a “core” bat (able to hit both) or two, and they need it desperately. Could that be Anthony and / or Campbell, certainly. Could those guys instead look like Jared Kelenic and Jackson Holliday, unfortunately that answer is also “certainly.”
Which is again why I think Bregman is a great fit. Even recently, he has demolished RHP, he has been neutral against LHP, and he plays 3b very well defensively. In this regard he also would not block either Anthony or Campbell, but he also hedges against one of them going the way of Jared Kelenic. You can sign one player and fix multiple issues (inability to be decent against both sides of the mound, horrific infield defense, good enough bat to hit in the top 5 in the line up). His hitting profile even looks good for Fenway Park - yes, his home run overlay decreases home runs, though all of those it takes away (at least to the pull side) are still singles or doubles. Not to mention the increased number of “outs” to the pull side that instead become singles, doubles or home runs at Fenway.
Unfortunately, it also comes with paying him at ages 35 and 36 (or even 37). Maybe the Red Sox are just totally “out” on the top of the FA market (again, those “unicorns” like Soto or Yamamoto are always going to be won by the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, or whatever).
So they’re (and we’re) either going to have to accept some bad years at the end or accept not getting any top tier talent from the FA market.
Ultimately, though I want the player, I don’t think Bregman ending up in Boston is a reasonable possibility - because I think they have decided to be “rational” about all top of the market free agents, and thus end 2nd or 3rd on all of them. This will help them avoid Carl Crawford or extension version Chris Sale, yes. It will also prohibit them from landing Manny Ramirez, David Price and JD Martinez.
Profar is an interesting name, but for me his performance is too mercurial to invest in. He’s not consistent enough to invest in long term. He’s not good enough defensively to fix their issues on that side. Would I rather have him than Romy Gonzalez - yes, but at that point it doesn’t really matter.
But he’s (similar to Yoshida) also not impactful enough as a DH that I think it makes sense to have him taking up the spot while not a) aiming higher or b) just seeing which of the kids can succeed in the game of adjustments necessary since c) at least they’d be able to be capable defensively to provide rest days for Devers and Casas to each DH 20 times a year.