This seems like as good a time for a reset as any, but as we stand here today, I think it’s been a very solid off season so far for Breslow et al. Short answer, I’d give it a B.
Very long answer:
Going into the off season, I had the Sox pegged for an 80-82 record (I think Pivetta and Giolito are essentially a wash; Casas should provide better overall offensive production than O’Neill; I expect nothing of consequence from Story; a bit of a regression from Houck but a bit of an improvement from Bello; a bit of regression from Duran but mostly made up by a bit of improvement from Abreu, Rafaela and “not Valdez half the time at 2b.“ Everyone else, I see no reason to expect anything different, netted out to “lose” a game in the record).
Way back on page 6, I wanted them to (summarized), and I assumed this would net the payroll out around $225m:
1) trade for a ToR starter.
2) move on from O’Neill and Pivetta
3) sign Bregman to play 3b
4) trade Yoshida by paying about 60% of his salary
5) sign Chapman - admittedly I had no idea he was such a dbag, I just knew him as a pitcher
6) sign Yates
7) if not Bregman, Adames, Teoscar, Arenado, CWalker etc and shuffle as necessary.
So here we are getting ready to enter the new year, so where we stand in my mind and what I really like and hope we do from here.
A couple notes, a decent discrepancy between Cots and Sox Payroll is the ~ $3m between the former not counting Fulmer and the latter counting him with incentives. As we stand here now, I’ll use Sox payroll because it’s the more conservative estimate ($24m) but say there is no way I’d keep Fulmer (becomes $27m left).
I obviously really like how the Sox have handled points 1 and 2. In my opinion they “spent” to acquire the most attractive ToR option on the market (Crochet). I was hoping it’d be “just” Mayer and stuff out, but it ended up being Teel, Montgomery and stuff. I’d still have made the deal 100% of the time, but that does mean needing at least a time share catcher (I assumed Teel to be up by around the ASG).
They “did” point 5, points 3, 4, 6 and 7 are in play. To be clear, I’d STRONGLY PREFER them to pursue points 3 (7) and 4, but since we’ve reached the winter holidays and they either haven’t been able to (or haven’t tried) to move Yoshida, I have to assume he’s going to be here and move on. So I’d focus on points 6 (sign Yates) and add in point 8 (sign a catcher). Both of which could certainly be done with the remaining $24m-$27m.
They elected to spend on a solid option for upside in the rotation (Buehler) and some depth (Sandoval) and while neither of those were really on my radar, I really like both moves. Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford is a really good ”rotation.”
As of today, I’d project the roster as is, with using most of last year’s line up while inserting one of the kids in the OF and at 2b, and I think that would be an 86-76 team, and a really good chance at being WC2 or 3. Go out and sign Yates and “Grandal” (or Diaz, or take CV back for free, etc) and I think that becomes 87-75 and then they should be firmly in the playoffs (and I’ll say WC2).
With those pieces, I do think there is a way to contend for WC1 and get up to the 89 win range. Devers at 3b and Yoshida at DH forces some combination of Campbell, Grissom, Hamilton to Worcester, and I firmly believe two of them and Devers at DH is a better option than one of them, Devers at 3b and Yoshida at DH. Leaving Yoshida at DH and Devers at 3b would still be an 87ish win team, but I’m much more interested in seeing what the kids can do than Yoshida as the DH only, and I think it’d be a better team.
(I do, however, admit it’s a dicier conversation to ask Devers to DH for a kid as opposed to bringing in someone of Bregman or similar. I like to think he is more focused on playing October baseball, but who knows.)
Duran - CF (L)
Story (Rafaela) - SS (R)
Devers - DH (L)
Casas - 1b (L)
Campbell - 3b (R)
Abreu - RF (L)
Anthony - LF (L)
Wong / Grandal - C
Hamilton / Grissom - 2b (whoever doesn’t win the job goes to Worcester)
Bench - Rafaela, Refsnyder, the other C, Yoshida.
Rotation
Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito (Priester, Fitts, Criswell in Worcester).
Bullpen
Yates, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Crawford other stuff.
However, what I THINK they’ll do is go the “Devers 3b, Yoshida DH, ”Yates and Grandal” route and leave themelves ~$5m in wiggle room before LTT1, probably similar to what
@joe dokes mentioned earlier.
Line up there is:
Duran
Story (Rafaela)
Devers
Casas
Campbell
Abreu
Anthony
Yoshida
Wong (Grandal)
Rafaela, Refsnyder, I’ll guess Grissom, the other C. Which I think will go quite poorly against LHP and lose more games than they should because of how easy that will make bullpen management for opposing teams, and really no back up 1b, but it is what it is (which again should be an 86 or 87 win team).