The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

Yo La Tengo

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This seems right to me. Seems like at this point the real variables are:

Story’s health - and, relatedly, how good he still is post-injuries. He has played the equivalent of basically a full season in Boston and he’s actually been pretty useful when healthy - 3.4 fWAR, 4.0 bWAR. For most of his career, outside of Coors, he’s been a .235/.300/.420 type hitter with good defense and speed. He has more or less been that at the plate in Boston, but between injuries and age it’s unclear whether he can still do that. If he can, that’s a significant boost to the team, and it’s really not much of an issue if he can’t since his missing time is already baked in.

Duran. I’m preparing for a much more significant drop-off than “slightly worse.” I’ll be thrilled if I’m wrong, but he just put up 8.7 bWAR/6.7 fWAR. He could have a really good season - as good or better than I ever expected from him before 2024 - and still be worth 2-4 fewer wins than last year depending on how you look at it.

Campbell/Grissom/Anthony. The error bars are wide with these three, but Anthony replacing O’Neill’s production would be a pretty damn good rookie season. Campbell and Grissom should be significantly better than Valdez, though, even if they’re just ok.

I like the idea of adding one more Santander-type bat. I don’t think he’ll meaningfully block Anthony - if Anthony is truly a stud he’ll find his way into the lineup - but I think he would limit downside risk. (I don’t think we’ll get Santander specifically). But after that, I’m not sure there’s much they can realistically do to improve the lineup (e.g., Cal Raleigh is not walking through that door).
I'm in agreement on most of this... but I'd plan on having Campbell and Anthony start the year at AAA (unless they blow our minds in spring training) and the Sox can see what Grissom and Rafaela can do for a month or two.

But the highlighted part- if the Sox bring in an offensive batter other than a catcher, they will be blocking someone. Since Santander is a bad fielder, that someone would likely be Yoshida, but he needs playing time to show what he can do when healthy (and reestablish some level of trade value). If the Sox were operating with an unlimited budget, maybe the improvement from Yoshida (lifetime OPS .776, OPS+ 111) to Santander (lifetime OPS .776 OPS+ 114) at DH would be worth the combination of those two contracts. But the team would be much better spending that money on pitching and/or an impact catcher (see my prior post about trading for Willson Contreras).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I am much less sanguine about Story than at the beginning of the off-season. He will be playing in his age 32 season when we probably see regression in his defense. The other shortstops in his age range (except for Miguel Rojas) are projected for decline. His offense is questionable; the September bounce was fueled by a .405 BABIP, which seems overly productive for a 28.2% hard hit rate.

Depth Charts has Red Sox shortstop position as worst in MLB with Story receiving over 620 PAs. Steamer has Rafaela and Campbell with better production in 25% fewer PAs ( better rated defense, as well).

Steamer 600 has him as the fifth best SS on the team, maybe a little pessimistic, but thinks Rafaela, Campbell and Mayer will be much better.

He’s owed over $77mm for three years. Do you let him have some run and bench him if his production is as low as projected, which would be uncomfortable, or try to subsidize him out of town for possibly an underwater pitching contract this off-season? To SF to play second, for Robbie Ray? To AZ, for Ed -Ro?

He’s a good leader for this team but may take up playing time for their young middle infielders. It seems like Rafaela, Campbell, Mayer, Grissom and Hamilton could cover the up- the- middle infield well.
I think they give him run, as you put it. Let Mayer and/or Campbell (or Grissom/Rafaela/Hamilton/etc) force the issue before you look to move Story. It's a stronger position to deal from if it appears you're moving Story because younger players are pushing him out rather than moving Story because you're concerned about decline and you're hoping that your younger players can do better.

I wouldn't put too much stock in projections that are using rather limited data from which to estimate Story's future production. And the key word is estimate. Another word for that is guess.
 

brownsox

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I am much less sanguine about Story than at the beginning of the off-season. He will be playing in his age 32 season when we probably see regression in his defense. The other shortstops in his age range (except for Miguel Rojas) are projected for decline. His offense is questionable; the September bounce was fueled by a .405 BABIP, which seems overly productive for a 28.2% hard hit rate.

Depth Charts has Red Sox shortstop position as worst in MLB with Story receiving over 620 PAs. Steamer has Rafaela and Campbell with better production in 25% fewer PAs ( better rated defense, as well).

Steamer 600 has him as the fifth best SS on the team, maybe a little pessimistic, but thinks Rafaela, Campbell and Mayer will be much better.

He’s owed over $77mm for three years. Do you let him have some run and bench him if his production is as low as projected, which would be uncomfortable, or try to subsidize him out of town for possibly an underwater pitching contract this off-season? To SF to play second, for Robbie Ray? To AZ, for Ed -Ro?

He’s a good leader for this team but may take up playing time for their young middle infielders. It seems like Rafaela, Campbell, Mayer, Grissom and Hamilton could cover the up- the- middle infield well.
Right, I have no idea what to expect from Story’s bat if he’s healthy, let alone whether he’ll be healthy. There’s a bull case where he’s a league-average hitter with good defense, and it looks like he can still steal a few bases. There’s also a world in which he’s just cooked even if he can stay on the field. I don’t want to read too much into his post-injury small-sample-size numbers from 2023 or 2024, in either direction .
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I'm in agreement on most of this... but I'd plan on having Campbell and Anthony start the year at AAA (unless they blow our minds in spring training) and the Sox can see what Grissom and Rafaela can do for a month or two.

But the highlighted part- if the Sox bring in an offensive batter other than a catcher, they will be blocking someone. Since Santander is a bad fielder, that someone would likely be Yoshida, but he needs playing time to show what he can do when healthy (and reestablish some level of trade value). If the Sox were operating with an unlimited budget, maybe the improvement from Yoshida (lifetime OPS .776, OPS+ 111) to Santander (lifetime OPS .776 OPS+ 114) at DH would be worth the combination of those two contracts. But the team would be much better spending that money on pitching and/or an impact catcher (see my prior post about trading for Willson Contreras).
Again, this whole idea of a player being blocked asssumes everyone is healthy, which is frankly, fantasy. Worrying that we are going to have these incredibly productive players in the minors or wherever with no shot at playing time just doesn’t seem like something we should be overly concerned with.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Again, this whole idea of a player being blocked asssumes everyone is healthy, which is frankly, fantasy. Worrying that we are going to have these incredibly productive players in the minors or wherever with no shot at playing time just doesn’t seem like something we should be overly concerned with.
Looking at this year and next year, and looking at position players, the Sox have Casas, Grissom, Story, Devers, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Yoshida, Anthony, Campbell, and Meyer to fill 8 spots. Plus Hamilton, Romy, and Refsnyder.

So that is +3 with three more subs, which may or may not be sufficient to cover for injuries and poor performance this year. But adding more expensive players now (with limited upside over the existing group, with an expected decline in performance, and the loss of draft pick(s)), is a bad idea when we don't know which of the players currently on the roster will underperform and/or get hurt. Signing Teoscar Hernandez now is not helpful if Casas or Devers gets hurt later this season. And it would not be helpful if Anthony or Rafaela or Campbell (or whoever might be this year's Campbell) or Yoshida perform at the level that we hope is on tap.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The more good players under control, the better. And having Teoscar now would certainly be helpful if Casas or Devers got hurt, even if he himself wouldn’t play 1b or 3b. Depth is good. If you’ve got guys like Anthony and Campbell locked in to roles from day one, you just have two less depth options when inevitably, players get hurt.
 

RedOctober3829

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This is where ego and salary positioning get in the way. I find it really difficult to believe Burnes will sign for less than what Fried got. It's still early; we're nowhere near the situation Snell and Montgomery found themselves in last offseason. And, frankly, Boras's rep will take a hit if he's scrambling to get deals for his unsigned players a month from now. One year is an outlier; two in a row is the start of changing the narrative
It all depends on how his market plays out and if he’s getting what he wants. Fried signing for that much that early seems to have had an effect on his market. Will SF pay up after paying Adames? Does he want to play for Toronto? If they wait out his market and give him say a 3/120 with an opt out after 2 years would he take that to be with a now AL East contender?
 

Yo La Tengo

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The more good players under control, the better. And having Teoscar now would certainly be helpful if Casas or Devers got hurt, even if he himself wouldn’t play 1b or 3b. Depth is good. If you’ve got guys like Anthony and Campbell locked in to roles from day one, you just have two less depth options when inevitably, players get hurt.
They have so many options that Anthony and Campbell are not at all locked in, and I think they should start the season in AAA (I'd like to see Rafaela start the season in CF and be given the chance to show improvement at the plate while playing gold glove defense). And you are right, Hernandez could be helpful offensively if there are injuries, but I think all of the players we are discussing who are already on the roster need regular playing time and there is a good possibility that some combination of those rostered players will outperform the remaining free agents. If Hernandez was interested in signing another one year deal, I could squint and see the logic, but a three year deal... major road block with lots of collateral damage.
 

BigSoxFan

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It all depends on how his market plays out and if he’s getting what he wants. Fried signing for that much that early seems to have had an effect on his market. Will SF pay up after paying Adames? Does he want to play for Toronto? If they wait out his market and give him say a 3/120 with an opt out after 2 years would he take that to be with a now AL East contender?
I’d love to know what Burnes has already turned down.
 

E5 Yaz

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I’d love to know what Burnes has already turned down.
He might not have "turned down" anything yet. Offers come in, some might go up, others stay where they are, some get reconstructed into different sort of deals. In general terms, he won't turn down anything until he accepts something else
 

Yo La Tengo

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A few stats from last year:

Top row is offensive stats in games started by a right handed pitcher, the bottom row is stats in games started by a left handed pitcher:
93375

Overall, the Sox had an OPS of .741 which was the third highest rank in the AL (8th overall).
Sox had an OPS+ of 104 which was the fourth highest ranking in the AL (9th in MLB).
Sox scored 751 runs, the third highest total in the AL (9th in MLB).
Sox slugged 194 home runs, fourth highest in the AL (9th in MLB).
Sox had 1404 hits, second in the AL (6th overall).

Looking at Wins Above Replacement on Baseball Reference:
Starting Pitchers +3.2, 5th in the AL (10th overall)
Relief Pitchers -3.9, 4th worst in the AL (6th worst overall)
Batters +6.9, 4th best in the AL (7th best overall)

Takeaway: even losing Tyler O'Neill (who had 156 plate appearances vs lefty pitchers), the Sox offense should be excellent this year with the players currently on the roster. Crochet is set up to have a massive positive impact on the starting pitching. The Sox need bullpen help. And lots of it.
 
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simplicio

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I'm finding myself hoping the brief Sean Murphy rumors might bear some fruit, if they can see a route to an offensive bounce back. Even returning halfway to his 2022-23 lines would be a tremendous upgrade. That's a plus RHB with far better defense at C than we've got.

I think he'd take Abreu and I'm okay with that. His spot goes to whichever of Anthony or Campbell can grab it in ST.

Add Murphy, Hoffman or some other reliever capable of 1+ fwar, ride into battle.

C: Murphy
1B: Casas
2B: Grissom
SS: Story
3B: Devers
LF: Duran/Campbell
CF: Rafaela/Duran
RF: Anthony/Rafaela
DH: Yoshida

Bench: Wong, Romy, Refsnyder, Hamilton (or Canha/Solano on a cheap 1 year deal to be expendable if another of the top 3 prospects forces his way up)

1: Crochet
2: Houck
3: Bello
4: Giolito
5: Crawford

Hoffman
Hendriks
Whitlock
Slaten
Chapman
Guerrero
Weissert
Wilson
 

iddoc

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They have so many options that Anthony and Campbell are not at all locked in, and I think they should start the season in AAA (I'd like to see Rafaela start the season in CF and be given the chance to show improvement at the plate while playing gold glove defense). And you are right, Hernandez could be helpful offensively if there are injuries, but I think all of the players we are discussing who are already on the roster need regular playing time and there is a good possibility that some combination of those rostered players will outperform the remaining free agents. If Hernandez was interested in signing another one year deal, I could squint and see the logic, but a three year deal... major road block with lots of collateral damage.
So…start Anthony and Campbell in Boston for a shot at the ROY draft bonus, or keep them in AAA until May (or when someone needs to be replaced because of injury or underperformance) and get an extra year of control (a sure thing, unlike the ROY bonus)? Depending on spring training performance, insofar as that is at all predictive? Or does Breslow have a pretty good idea right now?
 

Yo La Tengo

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So…start Anthony and Campbell in Boston for a shot at the ROY draft bonus, or keep them in AAA until May (or when someone needs to be replaced because of injury or underperformance) and get an extra year of control (a sure thing, unlike the ROY bonus)? Depending on spring training performance, insofar as that is at all predictive? Or does Breslow have a pretty good idea right now?
I'd opt for the extra year of control. But the PPI status is interesting, in that is provides an added draft pick for the ROY or finishing in the top 3 of the Cy Young or MVP during the three years after their call up.
 

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I think the only major implication is moving them around on the 26/40 man rosters; in theory the Sox can play them through Spring Training and if they start them on the ML roster and they’re good enough to stick, the PPI pick is in play. If they pull a Jackson Holliday, then they can be sent back down to work on whatever, extending their service time.
 

Margo McCready

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I think the only major implication is moving them around on the 26/40 man rosters; in theory the Sox can play them through Spring Training and if they start them on the ML roster and they’re good enough to stick, the PPI pick is in play. If they pull a Jackson Holliday, then they can be sent back down to work on whatever, extending their service time.
I think this is the correct approach. Rafaela, Grissom, Romy and Hamilton makes it make sense.
 

bnyc

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Campbell and Anthony have combined for something like 250 AB's at AAA, nothing wrong with each of them each getting another 100 to 300 AB's there. Remember JBJ's rookie year? He hit about .400 in spring training then started the year in Boston hitting .150ish, he improved but it took a while, something about MLB pitching focusing once the season began. And yes, if they both start the season in Boston then they need 40 man roster spots.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Campbell and Anthony have combined for something like 250 AB's at AAA, nothing wrong with each of them each getting another 100 to 300 AB's there. Remember JBJ's rookie year? He hit about .400 in spring training then started the year in Boston hitting .150ish, he improved but it took a while, something about MLB pitching focusing once the season began. And yes, if they both start the season in Boston then they need 40 man roster spots.
It's been said a million times, but worth saying again that teams can't keep playing super prospect types in AAA until they're 100% ready and burst onto the ML club without a hiccup. There very likely will be. Like with Pedroia, Casas, etc... Campbell, Anthony, Mayer, will all more than likely struggle like shit for their first 100-150 PA's no matter how well they do in AAA. These guys will need to see ML quality starters on a regular basis to adjust to that difference between AAA pitchers and them.
I really hope they start the season with Anthony on the ML team (and honestly with Campbell in AAA despite what I just said ^, to give Grissom time and to work out A LOT at the infield corner spots as the ideal future is a 1B, 3B, DH platoon between him, Devers and Casas) in LF. And unlike in the past 3 seasons, I'm expecting the Sox to do the opposite through the season and to struggle out of the gate for the first two months but then to really kick in to high gear and close the season incredibly strong. Make the playoffs as the 2 WC seed.
 

Devizier

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People will get injured, it's guaranteed.

The Red Sox gave 1898 plate appearances last season to: Hamilton, Refsnyder, Smith, Valdez, Romy, Dalbec, Sogard, Cooper, Reyes, Westbrook, Gasper.

Basically guys that, aside from Refsnyder, weren't expected to see many at bats last year. And Refsnyder saw the most in his career.
 

Margo McCready

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It's been said a million times, but worth saying again that teams can't keep playing super prospect types in AAA until they're 100% ready and burst onto the ML club without a hiccup. There very likely will be. Like with Pedroia, Casas, etc... Campbell, Anthony, Mayer, will all more than likely struggle like shit for their first 100-150 PA's no matter how well they do in AAA. These guys will need to see ML quality starters on a regular basis to adjust to that difference between AAA pitchers and them.
I really hope they start the season with Anthony on the ML team (and honestly with Campbell in AAA despite what I just said ^, to give Grissom time and to work out A LOT at the infield corner spots as the ideal future is a 1B, 3B, DH platoon between him, Devers and Casas) in LF. And unlike in the past 3 seasons, I'm expecting the Sox to do the opposite through the season and to struggle out of the gate for the first two months but then to really kick in to high gear and close the season incredibly strong. Make the playoffs as the 2 WC seed.
Though I’d personally include Campbell on the MLB roster too, I agree with this approach. Rip that bandaid off, throw them into the deep end. Hell, have a chicken pox party or whatever other euphemism you’d like to call it because the sooner these guys navigate the MLB learning curve, the sooner the team can be at its best.
People will get injured, it's guaranteed.

The Red Sox gave 1898 plate appearances last season to: Hamilton, Refsnyder, Smith, Valdez, Romy, Dalbec, Sogard, Cooper, Reyes, Westbrook, Gasper.

Basically guys that, aside from Refsnyder, weren't expected to see many at bats last year. And Refsnyder saw the most in his career.
No doubt injuries will always be an inevitable problem. I could be wrong here and I’d also grant that a season-ending injury may change the calculus, but I wouldn’t run from Grissom, Rafaela, Romy, Hamilton, Sogard and possibly even Mayer later on into the season taking those at bats.
 

Fishy1

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It's been said a million times, but worth saying again that teams can't keep playing super prospect types in AAA until they're 100% ready and burst onto the ML club without a hiccup. There very likely will be. Like with Pedroia, Casas, etc... Campbell, Anthony, Mayer, will all more than likely struggle like shit for their first 100-150 PA's no matter how well they do in AAA. These guys will need to see ML quality starters on a regular basis to adjust to that difference between AAA pitchers and them.
I really hope they start the season with Anthony on the ML team (and honestly with Campbell in AAA despite what I just said ^, to give Grissom time and to work out A LOT at the infield corner spots as the ideal future is a 1B, 3B, DH platoon between him, Devers and Casas) in LF. And unlike in the past 3 seasons, I'm expecting the Sox to do the opposite through the season and to struggle out of the gate for the first two months but then to really kick in to high gear and close the season incredibly strong. Make the playoffs as the 2 WC seed.
This is 100% correct, IMO. And delaying them just puts us in a tough position re:pPI picks.

As for Campbell vs. Grissom. I think they fight it out in spring training but as was pointed out, there's likely going to be trades or injuries that make room.

Also, I see Grissom long-term as an outfielder or a DH, or even a first baseman. He's not smooth out there in the field. His arm isn't good enough for 3B. His advanced stats have been bad at both MI positions. Maybe he shapes up at 2B but I'm ultimately skeptical.
 

Alex Cole's Rec Specs

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It's been said a million times, but worth saying again that teams can't keep playing super prospect types in AAA until they're 100% ready and burst onto the ML club without a hiccup.
This is a great point and I wish posters here would remember that about Rafaela in particular before deciding to count him out as a starter in 2025. Rafaela may be a utility player long-term, but I think we need more than 660 plate appearances to determine that.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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This is a great point and I wish posters here would remember that about Rafaela in particular before deciding to count him out as a starter in 2025. Rafaela may be a utility player long-term, but I think we need more than 660 plate appearances to determine that.
This is totally likely an incorrect observation- but it seems like the inverse is almost true with certain not super highly regarded prospects breaking in to the ML club due to an injury or whatever reason and then kicking the living snot out of opposing pitchers for the first 150-200 AB's and then turning into the pumpkin that they were more likely to be (Chavis being the most recent example that comes to mind... Middlebrooks? Dalbec. Plenty of others I've seen that seem to do this on other teams too). Or maybe not a pumpkin, but more just an average replacement level guy that can have some decent stretches but nothing really resembling their introductory stretch.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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This is 100% correct, IMO. And delaying them just puts us in a tough position re:pPI picks.

As for Campbell vs. Grissom. I think they fight it out in spring training but as was pointed out, there's likely going to be trades or injuries that make room.

Also, I see Grissom long-term as an outfielder or a DH, or even a first baseman. He's not smooth out there in the field. His arm isn't good enough for 3B. His advanced stats have been bad at both MI positions. Maybe he shapes up at 2B but I'm ultimately skeptical.
I'm a big fan of Grissom as a player and as a "prospect", but I don't think his bat profiles well enough to be considered an acceptable level for the Boston Red Sox in LF, 1b and certainly not DH. His bat could profile if he had the arm (or the ability) to play RF or 3b well defensively, and to be clear I have no idea if he does but I'm leaning toward "no." I think he needs to be on the middle infield or a "super sub" piece.

However this is more my take in that I think the big market teams should be spending huge dollars on a force at DH as part of flexing their financial muscle (I mean, it worked very well from 2007-2021 - as Ortiz wasn't highly compensated until the start of the 2007 season). If someone isn't producing a minimum of a 120OPS+, I don't think they're worth carrying as a primary DH, and I'd prefer someone in the 125+ range, if not higher.

If a player can't do that, they'd better be a Ben Zobrist type that is valuable across the diamond, and Grissom doesn't profile like any of those to me, I think he's more in that 110OPS+ range, which is quite good if they're a useful defensive player or a super sub, but I don't think is nearly good enough for a LF, 1b or DH in Boston - at least not if the goal is still winning the World Series.
 

Fishy1

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This is a great point and I wish posters here would remember that about Rafaela in particular before deciding to count him out as a starter in 2025. Rafaela may be a utility player long-term, but I think we need more than 660 plate appearances to determine that.
The thing is 660 PA is a pretty decent sample size. It's enough for most peripherals to stabilize. Still, I don't think anyone is counting him out. I personally just don't want him to be THE plan. I want to hedge against his bat continuing to be a total mess, which is as realistic a possibility as him sorting things out. What I want to avoid is handing him the job and keeping Anthony out of the majors or a starting role because we want to see if Ceddanne can sort out his issues at the plate. Ceddanne can do that playing 5 days a week just as well as he can 7, and in fact, days off might even give him some time to process and slow down. And Anthony needs to take on major league pitching.

It's why I haven't wanted the team to trade Abreu. If Rafaela still can't hit, then your outfield doesn't really have a backup plan as presently constituted.
 

simplicio

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I'm a big fan of Grissom as a player and as a "prospect", but I don't think his bat profiles well enough to be considered an acceptable level for the Boston Red Sox in LF, 1b and certainly not DH. His bat could profile if he had the arm (or the ability) to play RF or 3b well defensively, and to be clear I have no idea if he does but I'm leaning toward "no." I think he needs to be on the middle infield or a "super sub" piece.

However this is more my take in that I think the big market teams should be spending huge dollars on a force at DH as part of flexing their financial muscle (I mean, it worked very well from 2007-2021 - as Ortiz wasn't highly compensated until the start of the 2007 season). If someone isn't producing a minimum of a 120OPS+, I don't think they're worth carrying as a primary DH, and I'd prefer someone in the 125+ range, if not higher.

If a player can't do that, they'd better be a Ben Zobrist type that is valuable across the diamond, and Grissom doesn't profile like any of those to me, I think he's more in that 110OPS+ range, which is quite good if they're a useful defensive player or a super sub, but I don't think is nearly good enough for a LF, 1b or DH in Boston - at least not if the goal is still winning the World Series.
Problem is Masa has demonstrated that he can very easily be that 125+ guy when healthy. The bummer of his injuries this year is we never got a chance to see whether he could acclimate to MLB and avoid the fatigue issue that cropped up at the end of 2023.
 

Fishy1

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I'm a big fan of Grissom as a player and as a "prospect", but I don't think his bat profiles well enough to be considered an acceptable level for the Boston Red Sox in LF, 1b and certainly not DH. His bat could profile if he had the arm (or the ability) to play RF or 3b well defensively, and to be clear I have no idea if he does but I'm leaning toward "no." I think he needs to be on the middle infield or a "super sub" piece.

However this is more my take in that I think the big market teams should be spending huge dollars on a force at DH as part of flexing their financial muscle (I mean, it worked very well from 2007-2021 - as Ortiz wasn't highly compensated until the start of the 2007 season). If someone isn't producing a minimum of a 120OPS+, I don't think they're worth carrying as a primary DH, and I'd prefer someone in the 125+ range, if not higher.

If a player can't do that, they'd better be a Ben Zobrist type that is valuable across the diamond, and Grissom doesn't profile like any of those to me, I think he's more in that 110OPS+ range, which is quite good if they're a useful defensive player or a super sub, but I don't think is nearly good enough for a LF, 1b or DH in Boston - at least not if the goal is still winning the World Series.
I agree in an immediate sense, but it really all depends on how he develops. He was an extremely fast-riser, and he looks to be still filling out at 23 years old. I wouldn't surprised at all if he found another gear as a power hitter. He showed a preternatural contact skill in the minor leagues, until this year, and those types sometimes come to power later than others (see Pedroia and Mookie).
 

Fishy1

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Problem is Masa has demonstrated that he can very easily be that 125+ guy when healthy. The bummer of his injuries this year is we never got a chance to see whether he could acclimate to MLB and avoid the fatigue issue that cropped up at the end of 2023.
He's also going to be 31, and already wasn't a good athlete. He might bounce back or his age might start to catch up to him. It's hard to tell.
 

Yo La Tengo

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It's why I haven't wanted the team to trade Abreu. If Rafaela still can't hit, then your outfield doesn't really have a backup plan as presently constituted.
I feel good about Duran and Abreu/Refsnyder as 2/3rds of the outfield. And I feel comfortable that Rafaela or Anthony or Campbell can fill that other spot. They just need time to prove it. Worst case scenario is all three bomb and the Sox fill in with Refsnyder, Romy, and Yoshida, with a likely trade to follow.
 

simplicio

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10,125
He's also going to be 31, and already wasn't a good athlete. He might bounce back or his age might start to catch up to him. It's hard to tell.
I mean I don't want to put him back into the OF, but I truly don't see a compelling reason out there to replace him at DH. Much like Crawford, if you're going to make a change there I think it's only worth it if it's an undeniable major improvement. Selling low on a guy with his demonstrated upside for a marginal upgrade has potential for major regret.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Problem is Masa has demonstrated that he can very easily be that 125+ guy when healthy. The bummer of his injuries this year is we never got a chance to see whether he could acclimate to MLB and avoid the fatigue issue that cropped up at the end of 2023.
We also didn't get to see what it looked like after MLB had acclimated to him, which I know you mentioned but I do think is being somewhat glossed over. So I'll just say that we have no idea if it was fatigue or if it was - like plenty of guys before him - he just isn't able to make the series of adjustments necessary to consistently be a 125 OPS+ hitter at the MLB level over the long term.

I don't hate the player, to be clear. I just also don't think the "base case" is that we get a 120 OPS+ level player either. Could things go right and he produces that - yes - but it wouldn't be the outcome I'd bet on.


Or, roughly speaking, if he's there for both sides of the plate, I think there is a 25% chance Yoshida is a 125OPS+ caliber player, a 50% chance he is what he's been over 1000 PAs (call it 110-115OPS+) and a 25% chance he's worse / more likely can only be used against RHPs to hit that level. For me, the "base" and the "bear" case are more likely than the best case, by a pretty wide margin, and I don't think either of those cases is worth being a DH only for a big market team. If he hits the best case, of course he is.

Our difference, I think is that one of us thinks he's going to hit that best case and the other one thinks he's going to be "what he's been", and I don't think what he's been is good enough to be the full time DH in Boston, at least not if the goal is to win the World Series.
 
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Mike473

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I still think some right handed help is coming. The Red Sox have to play better at home than they have recently and I know some stats argue otherwise, but it seems when you play half the season in Fenway right handed power is strongly recommended. There is still a long way to go this offseason and think something will get done.
 

The Filthy One

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The Fangraphs ZIPS writeup on the Sox is out, and there are a few highlights:
  • Zips sees Campbell and Anthony as the 3rd and 4th best position players on the team. Campbell would be "one of the most accomplished offensive players to debut in the majors in 2025."
  • The starting pitching is pretty good, and seems to match what many here see.
  • The system is majorly down on Trevor Story's ability bounce back.
I thought this was an interesting assessment of where the team is today, as well:

If anything, the Red Sox now look a lot like a 2010s St. Louis Cardinals roster. Not a single player in the lineup is projected to be an MVP candidate – no, ZiPS is not that high on Duran – but by the same token, almost every player is projected to be average or better, with decent depth at most positions.
That also underscores the challenge of improving the team, since you really need to find a star, not just another good player to plug into a lineup of already pretty good players. Definitely encourage people to read the article, even if it is just pre-season projections.
 

Margo McCready

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I’m still on board with a .680 OPS Story for 2025 so long as he still looks like the same guy we’ve seen in limited action in the field. Fingers crossed.
 

ShaneTrot

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I’m still on board with a .680 OPS Story for 2025 so long as he still looks like the same guy we’ve seen in limited action in the field. Fingers crossed.
I wish him well but I just cannot see him getting through a season without missing significant time. 4 out of the last 5 seasons he has played less than 100 games. 3 of those seasons he played less than 59 games. He is the shortstop equivalent of Chris Sale.
 

RS2004foreever

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The Fangraphs ZIPS writeup on the Sox is out, and there are a few highlights:
  • Zips sees Campbell and Anthony as the 3rd and 4th best position players on the team. Campbell would be "one of the most accomplished offensive players to debut in the majors in 2025."
  • The starting pitching is pretty good, and seems to match what many here see.
  • The system is majorly down on Trevor Story's ability bounce back.
I thought this was an interesting assessment of where the team is today, as well:


That also underscores the challenge of improving the team, since you really need to find a star, not just another good player to plug into a lineup of already pretty good players. Definitely encourage people to read the article, even if it is just pre-season projections.
It was an interesting read - particularly the reference to the 2010's Cardinals.
Breslow has kind of implied the same thing - that they wanted front line players.

They have the Red Sox as a mid 80's win team as of right now.
 

dynomite

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I still think some right handed help is coming. The Red Sox have to play better at home than they have recently and I know some stats argue otherwise, but it seems when you play half the season in Fenway right handed power is strongly recommended. There is still a long way to go this offseason and think something will get done.
I've been banging the RH power bat need for a while, but I'll fall back on what I've said earlier in the thread: if the 2025 Red Sox don't make the playoffs, I'm pretty sure it will be because the pitching isn't good enough.

At the moment, barring injuries the lineup is pretty full, and it looks pretty good -- even anticipating a weakness against LHP. Obviously that flaw becomes more acute in a Best-of-3 Wild Card series, but we aren't there yet. So I'm fine going into the season, seeing how Campbell and Anthony perform in Spring Training/April, seeing how Grissom develops at 2B, and re-evaluating things in June/July when plenty of RH hitters will be available on the trade market.

And to @The Filthy One 's post, I think there's a very good chance Campbell is this year's Jackson Chourio / Jackson Merrill -- a rookie who comes up and by midseason blossoms into a borderline star, with Chourio's .275 / 21 HR / 22 SB season (at age 20!) a (hopefully) realistic ceiling.

A lineup that features healthy and productive RH hitters in Campbell and Grissom would look considerably better than last year's lineup vs LHP.

Our difference, I think is that one of us thinks he's going to hit that best case and the other one thinks he's going to be "what he's been", and I don't think what he's been is good enough to be the full time DH in Boston, at least not if the goal is to win the World Series.
I agree with this take on Yoshida. Still, realistically unless the Sox find a match to take on his salary, I presume he will be the full-time DH to start the season. And they can still look to upgrade in-season.

Again, by July we'll have a sense of the team's injury fortunes, as well the performance of folks like Yoshida, Story, Casas, Grissom, Campbell, etc. And there should be some RH bats available who can complement the roster and play a specific needed role with an eye toward a Best-of-3 Wild Card Series / playoff series.
 

RG33

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I wish him well but I just cannot see him getting through a season without missing significant time. 4 out of the last 5 seasons he has played less than 100 games. 3 of those seasons he played less than 59 games. He is the shortstop equivalent of Chris Sale.
This feels a bit contradictory considering Sale just bounced back, made 29 starts, and won the Cy Young Award.

Let’s hope Story does follow that path for one more year . . . . .
 

dynomite

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This feels a bit contradictory considering Sale just bounced back, made 29 starts, and won the Cy Young Award.

Let’s hope Story does follow that path for one more year . . . . .
Right. And this is yet another time when I miss DRS, but can anyone on here speak to this? As far as this non-doctor can tell unlike, say, Pedroia or Trout who seem to have been diagnosed with degenerative, progressive conditions that lead inevitably to re-injury, I don't think story is in that category. He had a UCL procedure in 2023, and then wrecked and fractured his shoulder while diving in 2024. Neither of those injuries are bound to re-occur in 2025. Of course Story could get a new injury, but like Sale not falling off his bicycle or getting his finger shattered on a comebacker in 2024, a player's luck can change.

Frankly, the player I'm more worried about with re-injury is Casas -- he made noises after his injury that his doctor told him tearing his rib cartilage (or whatever it was he did) was "inevitable" given the violence of his swing. But I imagine the team (and Casas himself) have worked to resolve that issue and prepare him for the, whatever, 2000 (?) swings he'll be taking this year.
 

Fishy1

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Right. And this is yet another time when I miss DRS, but can anyone on here speak to this? As far as this non-doctor can tell unlike, say, Pedroia or Trout who seem to have been diagnosed with degenerative, progressive conditions that lead inevitably to re-injury, I don't think story is in that category. He had a UCL procedure in 2023, and then wrecked and fractured his shoulder while diving in 2024. Neither of those injuries are bound to re-occur in 2025. Of course Story could get a new injury, but like Sale not falling off his bicycle or getting his finger shattered on a comebacker in 2024, a player's luck can change.

Frankly, the player I'm more worried about with re-injury is Casas -- he made noises after his injury that his doctor told him tearing his rib cartilage (or whatever it was he did) was "inevitable" given the violence of his swing. But I imagine the team (and Casas himself) have worked to resolve that issue and prepare him for the, whatever, 2000 (?) swings he'll be taking this year.
He also missed time with a fractured wrist on a HBP, another contact injury that can be chalked up at least in part to luck.
 

dynomite

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He also missed time with a fractured wrist on a HBP, another contact injury that can be chalked up at least in part to luck.
Oh yes, forgot that one. Man, Story -- and the Red Sox generally -- have really had just miserable injury luck the last few years. Sale just staring at his crushed and mangled finger off that comebacker and chuckling in disbelief in Yankee Stadium sums up the past few years of injury luck.

The worm has to turn at some point... right? ... Right?
 

Margo McCready

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I wish him well but I just cannot see him getting through a season without missing significant time. 4 out of the last 5 seasons he has played less than 100 games. 3 of those seasons he played less than 59 games. He is the shortstop equivalent of Chris Sale.
I hear you but he’s what we’ve got. Does it really make sense for a team that controls both Mayer and Rafaela to go outside the organization to find 2025’s shortstop? (Maybe it does and I’m not smart enough to envision the scenario.) But I mean, the elbow is repaired, last year’s shoulder was a freak thing that could happen to anybody. I will agree his age does make him a higher injury risk, but I’m not convinced his previous injuries do too.

But mainly, my thinking is that Trevor Story has looked like the best defensive Red Sox shortstop I can remember in his limited time out there. Considering the serious problems they’ve had with their infield defense in his absence, I think he needs to be out there regardless of his bat so long as he’s able to.
 

brownsox

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I wish him well but I just cannot see him getting through a season without missing significant time. 4 out of the last 5 seasons he has played less than 100 games. 3 of those seasons he played less than 59 games. He is the shortstop equivalent of Chris Sale.
To be fair, in one of those seasons (2020) no one in baseball played 100 games.

But yes, it’s hard to count on Story either staying healthy or even necessarily being good if he is healthy given his past injuries and age. Still, he’s been a useful player when he has played in Boston. As others have mentioned, he might drop off a cliff, but there’s certainly a world in which he can help this team.
 

Alex Cole's Rec Specs

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Any chance Austin Hays might be worth taking a flyer on with the assumption that much of his struggles were related to the hamstring injury and kidney infection and, when fully healthy/strong could turn things around?

https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-non-tender-deadline-moves-in-2024
I can see a scenario where most of the remaining budget is spent on pitching, Abreu and Yoshida stay put, and instead the Sox prioritize an additional 3rd/4th outfielder type who can hit lefties like:

Austin Hays
Randal Grichuk
Mark Canha
Connor Joe
Manuel Margot
Tommy Pham
Dylan Carlson

Joe and Canha both have the benefit of credible defensive experience at 1B, a position where depth is still badly needed on the roster.

I'd still rather have Teoscar Hernandez, but there will be pretty good value in this aisle of the Free agent store in January and February...
 

Yo La Tengo

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I can see a scenario where most of the remaining budget is spent on pitching, Abreu and Yoshida stay put, and instead the Sox prioritize an additional 3rd/4th outfielder type who can hit lefties like:

Austin Hays
Randal Grichuk
Mark Canha
Connor Joe
Manuel Margot
Tommy Pham
Dylan Carlson

Joe and Canha both have the benefit of credible defensive experience at 1B, a position where depth is still badly needed on the roster.

I'd still rather have Teoscar Hernandez, but there will be pretty good value in this aisle of the Free agent store in January and February...
I had a similar thought with regard to Lane Thomas, who CLE is looking to trade. He crushes LHP, steals a bunch of bases, is on a one year deal, and shouldn't cost too much in prospects. But when does he play? If Refsnyder hits for Abreu and Romy for Yoshida, would the plan be to platoon Duran? And who would the Sox drop from the bench... Hamilton?