I'm in agreement on most of this... but I'd plan on having Campbell and Anthony start the year at AAA (unless they blow our minds in spring training) and the Sox can see what Grissom and Rafaela can do for a month or two.This seems right to me. Seems like at this point the real variables are:
Story’s health - and, relatedly, how good he still is post-injuries. He has played the equivalent of basically a full season in Boston and he’s actually been pretty useful when healthy - 3.4 fWAR, 4.0 bWAR. For most of his career, outside of Coors, he’s been a .235/.300/.420 type hitter with good defense and speed. He has more or less been that at the plate in Boston, but between injuries and age it’s unclear whether he can still do that. If he can, that’s a significant boost to the team, and it’s really not much of an issue if he can’t since his missing time is already baked in.
Duran. I’m preparing for a much more significant drop-off than “slightly worse.” I’ll be thrilled if I’m wrong, but he just put up 8.7 bWAR/6.7 fWAR. He could have a really good season - as good or better than I ever expected from him before 2024 - and still be worth 2-4 fewer wins than last year depending on how you look at it.
Campbell/Grissom/Anthony. The error bars are wide with these three, but Anthony replacing O’Neill’s production would be a pretty damn good rookie season. Campbell and Grissom should be significantly better than Valdez, though, even if they’re just ok.
I like the idea of adding one more Santander-type bat. I don’t think he’ll meaningfully block Anthony - if Anthony is truly a stud he’ll find his way into the lineup - but I think he would limit downside risk. (I don’t think we’ll get Santander specifically). But after that, I’m not sure there’s much they can realistically do to improve the lineup (e.g., Cal Raleigh is not walking through that door).
But the highlighted part- if the Sox bring in an offensive batter other than a catcher, they will be blocking someone. Since Santander is a bad fielder, that someone would likely be Yoshida, but he needs playing time to show what he can do when healthy (and reestablish some level of trade value). If the Sox were operating with an unlimited budget, maybe the improvement from Yoshida (lifetime OPS .776, OPS+ 111) to Santander (lifetime OPS .776 OPS+ 114) at DH would be worth the combination of those two contracts. But the team would be much better spending that money on pitching and/or an impact catcher (see my prior post about trading for Willson Contreras).