The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

[kazuneko]

The 2018 playoffs were a blast, its a shame you missed them.

Devers is a perfectly fine 3B for now. Posts like this and that he's "one of the worst field 3B ever" are officially reaching Devers Defense Derangement territory. If anything he's underrated at this point.

I'm not sure how you define "one of the worst fielding 3b ever", but he is clearly the worst defensive 3b of his generation and one of this eras worst fielders overall.
Since Devers entered the league in 2017 he has had more errors than any other major league player: 141, which is 15 more than number 2 on the list (Tim Anderson). He's also the only member of the top 5 who hasn't been primarily a shortstop - a position that obviously gets far more chances than 3b. Not surprisingly, this means he -far and away- has the worst fielding percentage of any major leaguer during that time: .944 (number two is again Tim Anderson at .962). In fact, his fielding percentage is so bad that it is the worst fielding percentage by any qualified American League fielder (at any position) since the advent of the DH in 1973 (minimum 3500 innings - or roughly 3 seasons). In other words, any one else that bad was DH'd or relegated to part-time duty long before they could accumulate as many errors as Devers.
In advanced statistics he fares nearly as poorly. He's has the worst OAA of any major league 3rd baseman since he entered the league (-29) and he is 4th worst defender among all positions . This also makes him the worst defensive 3b and 4th worst defender overall since the beginning of the Statcast era.
So yes, Rafael Devers really is a historically bad defensive 3rd baseman, so it very much would be completely ridiculous to DH a good 3rd baseman like Bregman to accommodate him. Unless you just completely disbelieve available statistics I'm just not seeing how you can argue he's underrated. If he wasn't actually overrated defensively he'd have had his fielding glove taken from him years ago.

 

[Auger34]

I'm not sure how you define "one of the worst fielding 3b ever", but he is clearly the worst defensive 3b of his generation and one of this eras worst fielders overall.
Since Devers entered the league in 2017 he has had more errors than any other major league player: 141, which is 15 more than number 2 on the list (Tim Anderson). He's also the only member of the top 5 who hasn't been primarily a shortstop - a position that obviously gets far more chances than 3b. Not surprisingly, this means he -far and away- has the worst fielding percentage of any major leaguer during that time: .944 (number two is again Tim Anderson at .962). In fact, his fielding percentage is so bad that it is the worst fielding percentage by any American League 3rd baseman since the advent of the DH in 1973 (minimum 3500 innings - or roughly 3 seasons). In other words, any one else that bad was DH'd long before they could accumulate as many errors as Devers.
In advanced statistics he fares nearly as poorly. He's has the worst OAA of any major league 3rd baseman since he entered the league (-29) and is he 4th worst defender among all positions . This also makes him the worst defensive 3b and 4th worst defender overall since the beginning of the Statcast era.
So yes, Rafael Devers really is a historically bad defensive 3rd baseman, so it very much would be completely ridiculous to DH a good 3rd baseman like Bregman to accommodate him.

Using errors and fielding % as key metrics are how Derek Jeter won gold gloves.

Devers has above average range but struggles with focus and fundamentals. There is no way on gods green earth he is one of the worst defensive 3rd baseman ever. And citing errors and fielding % to prove it are like citing batting average and batting average with RISP to prove that someone’s a bad hitter

 

[chrisfont9]

We’re a board half full of prospect humpers. That shine is hard to erase here.

He was throwing 95. How many guys have come back from elbow injuries at this point?

 

[kazuneko]

Using errors and fielding % as key metrics are how Derek Jeter won gold gloves.

Devers has above average range but struggles with focus and fundamentals. There is no way on gods green earth he is one of the worst defensive 3rd baseman ever. And citing errors and fielding % to prove it are like citing batting average and batting average with RISP to prove that someone’s a bad hitter

As I mentioned, he fares nearly as poorly with advanced statistics. He's has the worst OAA of any major league 3rd baseman since he entered the league (-29) and is he 4th worst defender among all positions . This also makes him the worst defensive 3b and 4th worst defender overall (by OAA) since the beginning of the Statcast era. Do you think Statcast would have loved Jeter? I always thought he got lucky to retire one year before it was developed.
BTW, Devers also has the second worst 3B UZR (-25.7) since the development of that metric in 2002.

 

[Fishy1]

Using errors and fielding % as key metrics are how Derek Jeter won gold gloves.

Devers has above average range but struggles with focus and fundamentals. There is no way on gods green earth he is one of the worst defensive 3rd baseman ever. And citing errors and fielding % to prove it are like citing batting average and batting average with RISP to prove that someone’s a bad hitter

It is not a worthless statistic. It's not the whole picture, but it's closer to OBP than it is to batting average. Errors are bad. And Devers makes a shitload of errors. Way too many. This should be obvious IMO but it gives the other team free outs and free bases. Sometimes it turns an out into extra bases. Turning outs into free bases is one the worst things that a fielder can do.

And he didn't just cite errors or fielding percentage. He also cited the advanced stats--which, to be clear, agree that Devers is horrid.

Our eyes test can disagree, of course, there's no accounting for taste. But in my opinion he sucks over there. It's not just the balls he misses or throws away. He doesn't make up for it in anyway. I don't know how you can say is range is above average. His arm isn't particularly impressive for a third baseman either.

 

[Auger34]

It is not a worthless statistic. It's not the whole picture, but it's closer to OBP than it is to batting average. Errors are bad. And Devers makes a shitload of errors. Way too many. This should be obvious IMO but it gives the other team free outs and free bases. Sometimes it turns an out into extra bases. Turning outs into free bases is one of the worst things that

And he didn't just cite errors or fielding percentage. He also cited the advanced stats--which, to be clear, agree that Devers is horrid.

Our eyes test can disagree, of course, there's no accounting for taste. But in my opinion he sucks over there. It's not just the balls he misses or throws away. He doesn't make up for it in anyway. I don't know how you can say is range is above average. His arm isn't particularly impressive for a third baseman either.

We’ve officially reached the twilight zone. You are shitting on a Red Sox player that I am sticking up for. Can’t comment anymore, Iooking for pigs flying.

And honestly, the issue at hand is that the statement was that he’s one of the worst defenders ever. That’s ridiculous

I dont even think Dever is a good defender. If they move him off of 3B I wouldn’t bat an eye. But a discussion revolving around him being one of the worst defenders ever is stupid

EDIT: and no, errors are effectively worthless when it comes to grading someone as a fielder.,It’s not closer to OBP. Come on

 

[kazuneko]

We’ve officially reached the twilight zone. You are shitting on a Red Sox player that I am sticking up for. Can’t comment anymore, Iooking for pigs flying.

And honestly, the issue at hand is that the statement was that he’s one of the worst defenders ever. That’s ridiculous

I dont even think Dever is a good defender. If they move him off of 3B I wouldn’t bat an eye. But a discussion revolving around him being one of the worst defenders ever is stupid

EDIT: and no, errors are effectively worthless when it comes to grading someone as a fielder.,It’s not closer to OBP. Come on

Do you just not believe in OAA? Devers is the worst fielder at his position (according to OAA) since he entered the league by a large margin. Are you saying the worst 3rd baseman of his era doesn't qualify as historically bad?

 

[BaseballJones]

It is not a worthless statistic. It's not the whole picture, but it's closer to OBP than it is to batting average. Errors are bad. And Devers makes a shitload of errors. Way too many. This should be obvious IMO but it gives the other team free outs and free bases. Sometimes it turns an out into extra bases. Turning outs into free bases is one the worst things that a fielder can do.

And he didn't just cite errors or fielding percentage. He also cited the advanced stats--which, to be clear, agree that Devers is horrid.

Our eyes test can disagree, of course, there's no accounting for taste. But in my opinion he sucks over there. It's not just the balls he misses or throws away. He doesn't make up for it in anyway. I don't know how you can say is range is above average. His arm isn't particularly impressive for a third baseman either.

I know defensive metrics are inherently a little iffy, but here goes (with respect to Raffy)...

He has led the league in errors at third base in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. That's every year he's played except his rookie year (and even then he committed 14 errors). Career fielding percentage of .944, which is really bad.

His dWAR stats by year (from 2018-2024): -0.7, 0.0, -0.3, -0.9, -0.3, -0.5, -0.6.

His defensive runs saved as a 3b by year (2018-2024): -11, -5, -4, -13, -6, -9, -9.

Range factor is the one area where he's been close to average, as over his career he's at 2.60 and AL average is 2.62.

So he doesn't have good range (it's slightly below average at best), so he doesn't get to many "extra" balls. When he does get to a ball he makes a crap ton of errors. He's easily one of - if not THE - worst fielding third basemen in the league, and has been his whole career.

Sorry if this is a repeat post of what has been said. But Devers is a bad fielder. Really bad. I think he COULD improve, because a bunch of his errors are of the throwing variety, and a better fielding 1b can help with that. But he's just not a good fielder at all. Virtually any metric you can devise tells that story.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Do you just not believe in OAA? Devers is the worst fielder at his position (according to OAA) since he entered the league by a large margin. Are you saying the worst 3rd baseman of his era doesn't qualify as historically bad?

Not true! Hunter Dozier is at -30 OAA over the same time period. Amazingly he accumulated that in about 1/4 of the innings as Devers.

 

[simplicio]

You all do know OAA/UZR/DRS are counting stats right?

 

[mcpickl]

I think that Breslow is pretty comfortable with the lineup at the moment. I don’t really see a spot that needs upgraded unless of course someone is moved for pitching. Honestly though, I’m not sure that spending a bunch on a RH bat is necessary. Bregman is a good player, but his contract is too high for what he’s going to produce. I think the better idea is to really invest into the bullpen and one more starter. Spend some of your money on Tanner Scott, trade for Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, sign Flaherty or Manea or Bueheler, I just think they have a real need to go out and fortify the staff. With the young starters who have struggled throwing a lot of innings, they have got to find ways to keep them fresh.
As of right now, opening day lineup should be:
C- Wong
1B-Casas
2B-Platoon of Grissom and Hamilton
SS-Story
3B-Devers
LF-Duran
CF-Rafaela
RF-Abreu
DH-Yoshida
Bench: Refsnyder, Narvaez, Grissom/Hamilton and Romy
Honestly, the only moves I even think he would consider is moving Yoshida or picking up a DH type player to platoon with him, but I doubt it’s someone as expensive as Teoscar just to DH, and maybe acquiring a better backup catcher. Other than that, I really think that’s going to be the lineup. I don’t think he wants to bench Rafaela, that wouldn’t make a lot of sense to me especially after the extension, and I think he wants to leave room for the debuts of Campbell and Anthony later in 2025. Health permitting of course, that lineup is good enough to score enough runs to win 88-90 games, they just need to have quality pitching to back it up.
I think this is the move, sign one of Flaherty, Manaea or Buehler, sign Scott or trade for Williams/Helsley, and extend every young piece you see as part of the long term success of the team.

I think the spot to replace here is one of Hamilton/Grissom/Romy. Shouldn’t need to have all three of them with Story and Rafaela also on the roster that can play middle infield. Good chance that logjam gets solved by injury to one of them.

They should be looking at a RHH for that spot that can either play corner outfield, or corner infield.

i don’t think I’d spend up on Teoscar for that spot either. I’d agree with you to spend the money on more pitching and grab a role player for RHH

 

[simplicio]

They should be looking at a RHH for that spot that can either play corner outfield, or corner infield.

What if I told you there was a RHH available that could do both, and also middle infield and center field, while hitting LHP to the tune of a 144 wrc+?

It's Romy Gonzalez.

 

[mcpickl]

What if I told you there was a RHH available that could do both, and also middle infield and center field, while hitting LHP to the tune of a 144 wrc+?

It's Romy Gonzalez.

I’d say that’s great. He stays over one of Hamilton/Grissom and you add a RHH that can play the corners.

Easy peasy

 

[6-5 Sadler]

You all do know OAA/UZR/DRS are counting stats right?

Yes, hence the “accumulated”. I was basically saying that it’s not true even using the narrow definition of “worst” above. If you were to create a OAA/1000 innings stat there would be a bunch of guys that rate worse than Devers.

Personally I don’t even understand how this is still a discussion topic. Both Cora and Breslow shot down the idea of Devers moving off 3b.

 

[simplicio]

Yeah your post made sense to me, a lot of others on this page not so much.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Spot on, sir. Devers has NO business whatsoever wearing a baseball mitt (3rd baseman, 1st base or bullpen catcher). He is designated hitter. PERIOD. To trade Casas in order to placate him would be a travesty. I DO NOT care what his OPS is. He chokes each and every time the pressure gets dialed up. Somebody…. Tell me when he came through in a high pressure situation. I’d be glad to rent the limo that takes him to the airport, headed (hopefully) far away from Boston.

quick. Someone get this guy a floatie… he’s obviously drowning in a pool of misinformation, eyesight deficiency and outright nonsense. Watch a season already bro.

 

[kazuneko]

Not true! Hunter Dozier is at -30 OAA over the same time period. Amazingly he accumulated that in about 1/4 of the innings as Devers.

Yeah, in my initial post I had said with a minimum of 4000 innings - which is about three seasons as a starter at the position. There are players who sucked so bad that they were moved from 3b and therefore don't get the chance to build up the career numbers that Devers has. But even then, Dozier is the only one who is worse in overall OAA. That said, that is a truly amazing stat. Hunter Dozier is just an awful, awful fielder..

 

[simplicio]

Fun fact about WAR calculations for bad defenders: bad defense is still better than nothing.

Devers has 25.5 career fwar in 4215 PA with a 125 wrc+, for about 6.05 war/1000 PA.

JD Martinez has a career 126 wrc+ as a DH, with 12.3 fwar in 3286 PA, for about 3.74 war/1000 PA.

David Ortiz as a DH with a 147 wrc+ was worth 5.77/1000.

Raffy is staying at third.

 

[benhogan]

Nothing will top watching Butch Hobson play catch with the opposing dugout for a season.

Those scars run deep.

Edited: fixed for the pedantic wingnuts

 

[kazuneko]

Fun fact about WAR calculations for bad defenders: bad defense is still better than nothing.

Devers has 25.5 career fwar in 4215 PA with a 125 wrc+, for about 6.05 war/1000 PA.

JD Martinez has a career 126 wrc+ as a DH, with 12.3 fwar in 3286 PA, for about 3.74 war/1000 PA.

David Ortiz as a DH with a 147 wrc+ was worth 5.77/1000.

Raffy is staying at third.

This makes a lot of sense If you are a Devers fan and you want to build a team that maximizes his individual WAR. If instead you are Red Sox fan and you want a team that maximizes team wins, it really doesn’t.
The fWAR positional adjustment for 3b is +2.5. and yes, it’s -17.5 for DH. But every team needs to have a 3rd baseman and every team needs to have a DH. That means, that some player on the team is going to have a fWAR positional adjustment of -17.5 (at DH) and some other player is going to have a +2.5 positional adjustment at 3b.
The difference is that while a good fielding 3b can add extra fWAR to their total (and the team’s wins) by being above replacement level in the field a bad fielding defensive 3b will do the reverse. For example, Bregman , in 2024, added team wins at 3b through his strong defense. Meanwhile, Raffy lost obtainable fWAR and cost his team wins through his bad defense. So even though Raffy’s individual fWAR is hurt by playing DH and helped by playing 3rd, team wins are increased by having a better 3b and DHing him. The fact that Raffy gets hurt by taking on the -17.5 positional adjustment at DH only matters if you care about his individual statistics. After all, someone on the team has to play DH and take on that -17.5 positional adjustment either way.

 

[YTF]

Pi

If it’s just about getting a RH bat then they should just sign Mark Canha.
For three seasons straight he’s hit LHP better than Bregman and last year he was better in LF defensively than Teoscar Hernandez (a very low bar). He’s also a good to decent fielder at 1b. At age 35 he’d also be obtainable for a cheap one year deal.
If they wanted someone better than that they should have resigned Tyler O’Neil. None of the current options are good matches except for Ward from the Angels - but they are looking for major league ready starting pitching, something we don’t have a surplus of.

For the record, I'd rather see the money spent on pitching. My post is strictly about how I would like to see Bregman used IF he comes to Boston. I prefer that he spells the CIs and replaces Yoshida as primary DH. I want to see either Grissom or at some point, Campbell at 2B.

 

[BuellMiller]

Nothing will top watching Butch Hobson play catch with the opposing dugout for a season.

Those scars run deep.

He was before my time, but if true, that is some bad accuracy. The 3rd base dugout isn’t even the same direction as 1st base.

 

[NickEsasky]

He was throwing 95. How many guys have come back from elbow injuries at this point?

Plenty of guys have successfully come back from elbow surgery. Far fewer from two though. And if throwing 95 was the only requisite for a pitcher to succeed in MLB, teams wouldn’t be paying guys like Max Fried $27 million until he’s 40.

I’m sure we could run a search for his name here and we could find hundreds of posts from years ago from posters scheming to trade for him as a prospect and many more demanding the Red Sox hold out for him to be included in the Mookie deal.

I’m fine if the Red Sox sign him to a one year prove it deal, but giving a guy with a negative WAR season multiple years for $20m+ per because of a prior pedigree and a few playoff innings seems like bad business to me.

 

[Fishy1]

Yes, hence the “accumulated”. I was basically saying that it’s not true even using the narrow definition of “worst” above. If you were to create a OAA/1000 innings stat there would be a bunch of guys that rate worse than Devers.

Personally I don’t even understand how this is still a discussion topic. Both Cora and Breslow shot down the idea of Devers moving off 3b.

For what it's worth, I don't think this is dispositive or anything. The FO says lots of things and then completely changes their tune later. E.g., Chris Sale was our opening day starter until he was moved for Grissom.

If they say "we want to move Raffy off third base," then that puts them in a tougher bargaining position in a lot of ways, and it could be embarrassing for your star third baseman. to be saying that out loud.

I mean, I think we can all agree the team would be better with a better third baseman out there. Devers at DH might not accumulate as much fWAR, but if his replacement is better, that has cascading effects for the defense and the pitching staff. I've said this elsewhere but Fenway is already hard enough to play in without brutal infield defense. But I don't really love the idea of acquiring 33 year old Arenado and I got back and forth about signing Bregman to a 150 million or more deal, so I don't know.

 

[Devizier]

Like others have mentioned, Ha-Seong Kim seems like a good RHH 3B/SS option, but I would be stunned if he wants to sign with a team where he wouldn’t be promised a chance to start at a fixed position.

 

[Fishy1]

Like others have mentioned, Ha-Seong Kim seems like a good RHH 3B/SS option, but I would be stunned if he wants to sign with a team where he wouldn’t be promised a chance to start at a fixed position.

Story has also been willing to move off the position in the past, for Bogaerts for example. But with his arm and his range, unless his range appreciably has deteriorated this offseason, he's obviously still our best option at SS.

 

[kazuneko]

Like others have mentioned, Ha-Seong Kim seems like a good RHH 3B/SS option, but I would be stunned if he wants to sign with a team where he wouldn’t be promised a chance to start at a fixed position.

Right. It’s bad for the team and bad for the player, whether Kim or Bregman, to not to be given the best opportunity to effectively utilize their defensive skills, which for both of them is a big part of their value.
If Breslow is being honest and the team won’t consider moving Devers to DH or 1B then you can’t sign either Bregman or Kim - unless perhaps they are moving on from Grissom and don’t see Campbell as a viable option at 2b. They should just sign Canha. He’d be cheap and is a decent 1b who can also play some OF. He also was a better hitter against LHP last year than either Bregman or Kim.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Like others have mentioned, Ha-Seong Kim seems like a good RHH 3B/SS option, but I would be stunned if he wants to sign with a team where he wouldn’t be promised a chance to start at a fixed position.

I have no idea why the Yankees haven't signed him yet.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I have no idea why the Yankees haven't signed him yet.

They probably want Bregman. My guess (and I want the player, to be clear) is that it's really a Houston / NYY battle at this point. Bregman is almost assuredly deciding if he wants less money to stay in Houston or more money to go to NYY.

 

[gradysizemore69]

Like others have mentioned, Ha-Seong Kim seems like a good RHH 3B/SS option, but I would be stunned if he wants to sign with a team where he wouldn’t be promised a chance to start at a fixed position.

Since Kim won't return until July, I think he'd be a perfect insurance piece if Campbell/Grissom don't live up to their expectations and if Story falls apart sometime during the season.

He has versatility and could also get some reps at 3B to give Raffy rest.

 

[simplicio]

This makes a lot of sense If you are a Devers fan and you want to build a team that maximizes his individual WAR. If instead you are Red Sox fan and you want a team that maximizes team wins, it really doesn’t.
The fWAR positional adjustment for 3b is +2.5. and yes, it’s -17.5 for DH. But every team needs to have a 3rd baseman and every team needs to have a DH. That means, that some player on the team is going to have a fWAR positional adjustment of -17.5 (at DH) and another player is going to have a +2.5 positional adjustment at 3b.
The difference is that while a good fielding 3b can add extra fWAR to their total (and the team’s wins) by being above replacement level in the field a bad fielding defensive 3b will do the reverse. For example, Bregman , in 2024, added team wins at 3b through his strong defense. Meanwhile, Raffy lost obtainable fWAR and cost his team wins through his bad defense. So even though Raffy’s individual fWAR is hurt by playing DH and helped by playing 3rd, team wins are increased by having a better 3b and DHing him. The fact that Raffy gets hurt by taking on the -17.5 positional adjustment at DH only matters if you care about his individual statistics. After all, someone on the team had to play DH and take on that -17.5 positional adjustment either way.

Bregman is currently a sidegrade or worse at third; he and Devers had matching fwar this year and Devers has slightly better projections for 2025. That's not going to improve as aging curves continue.

But it's not really about Raffy's value; he's on the team in one place or another. It's about the cost of the DH slot.

Near term, yes a team with Bregman at 3B and Devers DH is obviously better than Devers/Yoshida. The cost of that is huge though. To upgrade Yoshida to essentially a Schwarber-level bat you're talking eating or heavily subsidizing Yoshida's $54m, taking on an expensive additional contract for a declining Bregman, giving up the QO pick and IFA money to do so, and locking up your DH spot for the next 9 years at $29m/yr. That gains you like 1-2 war in year one maybe? Then presumably less as Bregman continues to decline while Devers in still in prime years. I don't see how any of this is worth it.

 

[joe dokes]

Bregman is currently a sidegrade or worse at third; he and Devers had matching fwar this year and Devers has slightly better projections for 2025. That's not going to improve as aging curves continue.

But it's not really about Raffy's value; he's on the team in one place or another. It's about the cost of the DH slot.

Near term, yes a team with Bregman at 3B and Devers DH is obviously better than Devers/Yoshida. The cost of that is huge though. To upgrade Yoshida to essentially a Schwarber-level bat you're talking eating or heavily subsidizing Yoshida's $54m, taking on an expensive additional contract for a declining Bregman, giving up the QO pick and IFA money to do so, and locking up your DH spot for the next 9 years at $29m/yr. That gains you like 1-2 war in year one maybe? Then presumably less as Bregman continues to decline while Devers in still in prime years. I don't see how any of this is worth it.

The more i think about it, the more im good with just letting yoshida DH. Getting Bregman for as long as it seems it would be, seems like a hammer in search of a nail. I understand the concept of overpaying. If they paid me zero to be the DH, id be paid right, but I suck. Yoshida does not suck.

I also think the Sox get this. It would be consistent in not going to the wall for Fried. Sure, theres cost considerations. But theres baseball considerations, too. The baseball "cost" of "getting out from under" Yoshidas contract just may not be worth it.

 

[simplicio]

This is the way.

 

[dynomite]

Like others have mentioned, Ha-Seong Kim seems like a good RHH 3B/SS option, but I would be stunned if he wants to sign with a team where he wouldn’t be promised a chance to start at a fixed position.

Yes, I'm another who wants Kim, and another who agrees he would probably rather sign somewhere with a guaranteed starting role. In 2023 he finished as a 4.2 fWAR player (tied with Trea Turner that season) & 14th in MVP voting. With his elite glove and decent bat I imagine he feels he should be the starting SS somewhere mid-market on a short deal like the Tigers or the... Rays?

Here's a solid writeup from MLBTR:

As recently noted by Anthony Franco in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, Kim is one of the trickiest players to evaluate within the 2024-25 free agent class, owing to the shoulder surgery that Kim underwent in late September. Kim will miss some time at the start of the 2025 season, though the exact timeline is up in the air — agent Scott Boras said a late-April return is possible, while Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller in October said Kim might not be ready until “May, June, July.” It should be noted that Preller was speaking broadly on the topic rather than giving any sort of definitive timeline, yet even raising the possibility of a three-month range adds to the uncertainty over Kim’s health.

Some teams have still floated the idea of signing Kim to a multi-year contract, though the exact nature of such offers aren’t clear. It would be risky to offer Kim something like four or five guaranteed years, but a two-year contract (likely with a player opt-out after 2025) seems entirely plausible. Kim and agent Scott Boras might also seek out a flat one-year deal with the same idea of Kim getting to quickly re-enter the market next winter, ostensibly on the heels of a healthier and productive platform year. MLBTR’s projection of a one-year, $12MM contract for Kim supports this strategy, though Boras is no stranger to creative deals that provide his clients with plenty of flexibility.

A shorter-term contract might have more appeal to the Tigers, who are reportedly seeking out such deals in regards to starting pitchers.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/tigers-interested-in-ha-seong-kim.html

 

[Puffy]

I don’t necessarily think he’s a particularly great fit here, but if we are talking about middle infielders, Gleyber Torres is kind of flying under the radar this offseason. Decent projections, good power numbers against lefties, nice walk rates, doesn’t chase, decent whiff/K rates, just turned 28. A bad fielder and baserunner, to be sure, but might be nice in a role that included work at the corners 1B/3B.

 

[joe dokes]

I don’t necessarily think he’s a particularly great fit here, but if we are talking about middle infielders, Gleyber Torres is kind of flying under the radar this offseason. Decent projections, good power numbers against lefties, nice walk rates, doesn’t chase, decent whiff/K rates, just turned 28. A bad fielder and baserunner, to be sure, but might be nice in a role that included work at the corners 1B/3B.

Id like to see Romy Gonzalez keep that spot. Checks all those Gleyber boxes.
Besides, it would give the team a shot to have 2 guys with the given name "Roman."

 

[chrisfont9]

Plenty of guys have successfully come back from elbow surgery. Far fewer from two though. And if throwing 95 was the only requisite for a pitcher to succeed in MLB, teams wouldn’t be paying guys like Max Fried $27 million until he’s 40.

I’m sure we could run a search for his name here and we could find hundreds of posts from years ago from posters scheming to trade for him as a prospect and many more demanding the Red Sox hold out for him to be included in the Mookie deal.

I’m fine if the Red Sox sign him to a one year prove it deal, but giving a guy with a negative WAR season multiple years for $20m+ per because of a prior pedigree and a few playoff innings seems like bad business to me.

Obviously I wasn’t saying throwing 95 meant he was awesome. I meant it as a sign that his UCL recovery is pretty advanced.

 

[kazuneko]

Bregman is currently a sidegrade or worse at third; he and Devers had matching fwar this year and Devers has slightly better projections for 2025. That's not going to improve as aging curves continue.

But it's not really about Raffy's value; he's on the team in one place or another. It's about the cost of the DH slot.

Near term, yes a team with Bregman at 3B and Devers DH is obviously better than Devers/Yoshida.

This whole conversation started because it was suggested that if they aren’t inclined to move Devers to DH that the team could sign Bregman as a DH/back up IF- and keep Devers at 3b. I responded by suggesting that that would be an insane mismanagement of the roster with the only benefit being protecting Devers ego. I stand by that statement.
My point is that if you sign Bregman you have to move Devers from 3b, for while you are correct that they had identical fWAR last year, Bregman generates his fWAR in large part because of his defensive value. DHing him takes away much of his worth. DHing Devers does not, as all of his value (in terms of team wins) comes from his bat. Sure, his individual WAR will decline as a DH but that’s just because he will take on the -17.5 DH positional adjustment. But that’s doesn’t hurt the team’s wins because if it wasn’t Devers it would just be a different player having to take on that positional adjustment. All DHs are going to have lowered WAR and every team needs a DH, so a team should never worry about the fact that switching a bad fielder to DH will lower that individual player’s fWAR. Only Devers agent should care about that.
It’s a separate question whether or not they should sign Bregman, but my point was that if they do, they need to move Devers off of 3b -otherwise it’s a ridiculous move.
Personally, I feel that even if they were to move Devers from 3b I’d still be worried about Bregman’s declining hitting in the last 3 years, and the fact that he hasn’t hit well against LHP since 2021. I suppose that if the contract wasn’t more than three years and the annual salary was in the $20 million dollar range I’d consider it, but I don’t see that as likely at all. So no, I don’t think I’d be interested in signing Bregman if I was in Breslow’s position.

 

[simplicio]

Oh for sure, I didn't catch that part of the topic but getting Bregman to play him somewhere other than third would an even worse idea! Let's doubly not do that.

 

[kazuneko]

I don’t necessarily think he’s a particularly great fit here, but if we are talking about middle infielders, Gleyber Torres is kind of flying under the radar this offseason. Decent projections, good power numbers against lefties, nice walk rates, doesn’t chase, decent whiff/K rates, just turned 28. A bad fielder and baserunner, to be sure, but might be nice in a role that included work at the corners 1B/3B.

Yes. If Torres is willing to take on the backup IF/ DH role (which is a big if)he’d be a better match for that role than Bregman as Torres, unlike Bregman, generates most of his value from his bat (he’s not very good defensively). And unlike Bregman, Torres crushes LHP. You’d still need to trade Yoshida but Torres is only projected to get a two year 36-million dollar contract, which makes that far easier to do (since you’ll have to subsidize the Yoshida contract). Bregman, in contrast, is projected to get as much as $200 million

 

[loneredseat]

The more i think about it, the more im good with just letting yoshida DH. Getting Bregman for as long as it seems it would be, seems like a hammer in search of a nail. I understand the concept of overpaying. If they paid me zero to be the DH, id be paid right, but I suck. Yoshida does not suck.

I also think the Sox get this. It would be consistent in not going to the wall for Fried. Sure, theres cost considerations. But theres baseball considerations, too. The baseball "cost" of "getting out from under" Yoshidas contract just may not be worth it.

I agree. Considering what it would "cost" to trade him, and replace him, it's worth keeping him. He's a likeable guy, a solid hitter, and there's reason to believe he'll improve. And when his contract is up, maybe this will be the time to DH Devers.
If this is the way it plays out, I hope they give him some reps out in the field (I know he's not great out there but just here and there). I think this would be a good thing for him, from a mental health point of view. He has said that he misses playing the field.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'm against shuffling the decks and playing musical chairs and crying over egg on our faces.... but the easiest and most obvious solution here is to start Campbell in AAA playing 1B and 3B, no?
I'd just like to see another bullpen arm added but otherwise the team really is good to go and every bit as good as any other team in the AL right now.
I just don't see moving Devers, adding Bregman (or Arenado), moving Casas for pitching, moving Abreu for a Catcher, Yoshida for a closer..... etc.... Every discussion of these things sounds like you're somehow adding more payroll and maybe gaining .25 wins at the most.... possibly. Hasn't been a configuration that has made sense. The rotation is good. Possibly very good. The offense is fantastic as is. It's an 88-92 win team IMO, especially with the entire AL getting weaker, as it clearly is.

 

[Beomoose]

Yes, I'm another who wants Kim, and another who agrees he would probably rather sign somewhere with a guaranteed starting role. In 2023 he finished as a 4.2 fWAR player (tied with Trea Turner that season) & 14th in MVP voting. With his elite glove and decent bat I imagine he feels he should be the starting SS somewhere mid-market on a short deal like the Tigers or the... Rays?

Here's a solid writeup from MLBTR:



https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/tigers-interested-in-ha-seong-kim.html

He was at Second for 100 games in 2023, could we lure him in as a "2B" with wink/nod that he may end up at 3rd or Short depending how things look when he finally hits the field?

 

[NickEsasky]

Obviously I wasn’t saying throwing 95 meant he was awesome. I meant it as a sign that his UCL recovery is pretty advanced.

Sure his velocity seemed to rebound but everything else seems pretty diminished. Ultimately he struggled all season getting outs consistently. Maybe his secondary pitches continue to come back as he gets further away from the second TJ surgery but is that something you feel comfortable betting $60-80m on?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/walker-buehler-621111?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I'd just like to see another bullpen arm added but otherwise the team really is good to go and every bit as good as any other team in the AL right now.

Every discussion of these things sounds like you're somehow adding more payroll and maybe gaining .25 wins at the most.... possibly. Hasn't been a configuration that has made sense. The rotation is good. Possibly very good. The offense is fantastic as is. It's an 88-92 win team IMO, especially with the entire AL getting weaker, as it clearly is.

Agreed. Signing/acquiring expensive veteran position players seems to run entirely counter to the whole plan. The Sox should look to sign one or more bullpen pieces and keep track of any unexpected opportunities to improve the team... so if Helsley or Contreras or Fedde become available from STL, that could be interesting. Or if the market for one of the remaining FA starters craters, etc.

 

[RS2004foreever]

I'm against shuffling the decks and playing musical chairs and crying over egg on our faces.... but the easiest and most obvious solution here is to start Campbell in AAA playing 1B and 3B, no?
I'd just like to see another bullpen arm added but otherwise the team really is good to go and every bit as good as any other team in the AL right now.
I just don't see moving Devers, adding Bregman (or Arenado), moving Casas for pitching, moving Abreu for a Catcher, Yoshida for a closer..... etc.... Every discussion of these things sounds like you're somehow adding more payroll and maybe gaining .25 wins at the most.... possibly. Hasn't been a configuration that has made sense. The rotation is good. Possibly very good. The offense is fantastic as is. It's an 88-92 win team IMO, especially with the entire AL getting weaker, as it clearly is.

I agree for the most part. Bregman feels like Story all over again (I know that is not fair to either player). The pen can use help, and another starter makes sense (Buehler?). But this team would be really interesting as presently comprised.

 

[dynomite]

He was at Second for 100 games in 2023, could we lure him in as a "2B" with wink/nod that he may end up at 3rd or Short depending how things look when he finally hits the field?

Interesting question! I imagine Kim and his agent will be thinking that through, and it sort of depends what offers are on the table?

And from the Sox point of view, I think the question is similar: where would he fit? Are we moving Devers to DH? Are we giving up on Grissom? Etc.

Some additional things to consider:

1) Is he interested in a 1 year, "build his value" type contract? If so, how much of a guaranteed opportunity does he need for that? If I were him, I'd want a fairly certain guarantee that -- even if Devers, Story, and Grissom are all healthy when he is (May?) -- he'll be playing every day or close to it. And even then, a 1 year deal with a team that guarantees him a starting SS -- Tigers, etc. -- I imagine that's his best opportunity for a big contract in 2026, right?

2) If he's looking for a 2/3 year deal, how does that change things? Maybe he would be willing to take more uncertainty in terms of 2B vs. SS vs. 3B if he knows he's got a 3 year/$XXM ($45M? $65M w incentives?) deal under his belt, knowing at least on the Sox that could mean he plays primarily 2B in 2025, then perhaps 3B in 2026?

 

[BaseballJones]

So far the Sox have acquired this offseason:

SP Crochet
RP Wilson
RP Chapman
C Narvaez

 

[chrisfont9]

Sure his velocity seemed to rebound but everything else seems pretty diminished. Ultimately he struggled all season getting outs consistently. Maybe his secondary pitches continue to come back as he gets further away from the second TJ surgery but is that something you feel comfortable betting $60-80m on?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/walker-buehler-621111?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Well I don’t know the exact number but that’s the idea. Obviously they are better equipped to look at his postseason work to gauge his recovery of his offspeed pitches. But I would be comfortable betting something on him. They have a ton of room below the LT line and just saved close to a billion on not getting Soto or Fried. They can take some middling swings.

 

[pdub]

Cubs traded for Kyle Tucker, guess that puts that idea to bed. I take this to mean the Astros are at least doing a partial rebuild, so any merit to trying to nab Framber Valdez if its not for a king's ransom?