The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

ehaz

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They want Sasaki, and need to clear some payroll, even to add him.
I believe the smoke that he probably goes to San Diego and doubt Boston has a great shot at him, but Sasaki + Crochet would be a wet dream for the front office's approach to building a rotation. All guys under 30 in pre-arb, arbitration, or signed to extensions. Only Houck would be up for free agency after three seasons.

1. Garrett Crochet - age 26, team control until 2031 (assuming a 6 year extension)
2. Roki Sasaki - age 23, team control until 2031
3. Tanner Houck - age 28, team control until 2028
4. Brayan Bello - age 26, team control until 2030
5. Kutter Crawford - age 29, team control until 2029
 

iddoc

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Nov 17, 2006
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For those of you (not inappropriately) worried about Walker Buehler’s two TJ surgeries…the much beloved Nathan Eovaldi says hi.

Before the Crochet trade I would have advocated Flaherty and Buehler (assuming no Burnes), now we may be looking at one of them.
 

Otis Foster

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Luis Castillo for Casas? Hell fucking no
I don’t get the willingness on the part of some to dump Casas. Is this only a strategic move to open first base for Devers? if that’s what this is all about, who fills third base - Bregman? Is it driven in part by a concern that he’s injury prone? Did the prior extension negotiation convince the FO that Casas would be impossible to extend before he hits free agency? -Or is this at least in part driven by dislike for his quirkiness and free spirit?

I’d be interested to hear from those who propose trading Casas.
 

OCab44

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I love Casas' potential but I'm scared shitless he will be an injury case. Major rib injury swinging a bat? Scary. I may cut bait for a stud pitcher.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I don't think a lot of people want to trade him, necessarily, but there are arguably three left-handed DHs on the roster currently and, of those, he's the one with the most trade value and therefore most likely to return a good player. I hope he doesn't get traded, personally.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I love Casas' potential but I'm scared shitless he will be an injury case. Major rib injury swinging a bat? Scary. I may cut bait for a stud pitcher.
One freak injury and now he's easily expendable? Bull shit. If it happens again, I'd be incredibly surprised.

For a young "stud" pitcher, I'd consider pretty much anything. For a 31 year old expensive pitcher who may or may not be benefiting from a home field advantage? Not a chance I trade Casas.
 

OCab44

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One freak injury and now he's easily expendable? Bull shit. If it happens again, I'd be incredibly surprised.

For a young "stud" pitcher, I'd consider pretty much anything. For a 31 year old expensive pitcher who may or may not be benefiting from a home field advantage? Not a chance I trade Casas.
Easily expendable? Never implied

Trade chip for a major need? Implied

Keeping him also implied
 

Fishy1

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You guys realize Houck was better when adjusted for park factors than Gilbert or Kirby last year, right?

I think people are really underrating the park effects. Kirby's ERA+, which accounts for park effects, was only 104 last year. Gilbert's was 113. Castillos was 101. The Mariners stadium is not only huge, the batters eye drives strikeouts through the roof.

To compare, Houck's ERA+ was at 137. Pivetta at 103. Criswell 104. Kutter at 98. Bello 97.

Put Logan Gilbert or Kirby in Fenway and he might give up 30 home runs too.

Bottom line is our starting staff was 7th in ERA+ in all of baseball last year. We can add another starting pitcher if we want, but what we really need is bullpen depth at this point, in my opinion.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Am i misremembering that Casas said he “felt “ something earlier after a play in the field but it wasn’t concerning at the time?
 

BaseballJones

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Can someone explain why the "batter's eye" in Seattle somehow leads to more strikeouts than in other parks?
 

OCab44

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Am i misremembering that Casas said he “felt “ something earlier after a play in the field but it wasn’t concerning at the time?
He's a LARGE dude, alot can go wrong there, also had a shoulder injury. Just like everyone else I'm mesmerized by his talent, his stretch in 2023 was special. We'll see what the hierarchy thinks soon enough.
 

Yo La Tengo

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You guys realize Houck was better when adjusted for park factors than Gilbert or Kirby last year, right?

I think people are really underrating the park effects. Kirby's ERA+, which accounts for park effects, was only 104 last year. Gilbert's was 113. Castillos was 101. The Mariners stadium is not only huge, the batters eye drives strikeouts through the roof.

To compare, Houck's ERA+ was at 137. Pivetta at 103. Criswell 104. Kutter at 98. Bello 97.

Put Logan Gilbert or Kirby in Fenway and he might give up 30 home runs too.

Bottom line is our starting staff was 7th in ERA+ in all of baseball last year. We can add another starting pitcher if we want, but what we really need is bullpen depth at this point, in my opinion.
Note to add that Gilbert gave up 29 home runs in 2023, with 18 of those coming at home in only 90 innings.
 

chawson

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I don’t get the willingness on the part of some to dump Casas. Is this only a strategic move to open first base for Devers? if that’s what this is all about, who fills third base - Bregman? Is it driven in part by a concern that he’s injury prone? Did the prior extension negotiation convince the FO that Casas would be impossible to extend before he hits free agency? -Or is this at least in part driven by dislike for his quirkiness and free spirit?

I’d be interested to hear from those who propose trading Casas.
I like Casas and wouldn’t want to trade him, but there are some arguments for it depending on the return.

The potential to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next winter comes to mind. Beyond that, I’d be concerned about the possibility Casas gets hurt again, or else adapts his swing to prevent injury in a way that limits his production. I also wonder where things were left in extension talks.

Finally, I really like his whole persona, personally, though I suppose it’s conceivable that Cora or some teammates aren’t wild about it.

If we were to trade him and another piece for something like Jared Jones, sign Carlos Santana as a one-year stopgap, and then give a huge contract to Vladdy next year, that would work out fine.
 

simplicio

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Banking on the assumption that we'll be able to get Vlad in FA next year seems tremendously foolish to me.
 

chawson

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Banking on the assumption that we'll be able to get Vlad in FA next year seems tremendously foolish to me.
Agree, I don’t think we’d bank on it, but I don’t worry much about backfilling the first base position if we need to. Devers might be the fallback option anyway.
 

Fishy1

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Banking on the assumption that we'll be able to get Vlad in FA next year seems tremendously foolish to me.
Yeah, it ain't gonna happen.

Would much rather see us try to extend some more of our young guys. Vlad's going to get a mega-deal, and by the end of next year, who knows, maybe Casas has exploded for a wrc+ of 150 and we just want to extend him.
 

picniclightning

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Dec 7, 2005
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You guys realize Houck was better when adjusted for park factors than Gilbert or Kirby last year, right?

I think people are really underrating the park effects. Kirby's ERA+, which accounts for park effects, was only 104 last year. Gilbert's was 113. Castillos was 101. The Mariners stadium is not only huge, the batters eye drives strikeouts through the roof.

To compare, Houck's ERA+ was at 137. Pivetta at 103. Criswell 104. Kutter at 98. Bello 97.

Put Logan Gilbert or Kirby in Fenway and he might give up 30 home runs too.

Bottom line is our starting staff was 7th in ERA+ in all of baseball last year. We can add another starting pitcher if we want, but what we really need is bullpen depth at this point, in my opinion.

Yes, park effects for Seattle pitchers are very real. Luis Castillo for example -
4.51 xFIP in 2024 away from T-Mobile.
3.26 xFIP in 2024 at T-Mobile.
 

PedroisGod

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Yeah, it ain't gonna happen.

Would much rather see us try to extend some more of our young guys. Vlad's going to get a mega-deal, and by the end of next year, who knows, maybe Casas has exploded for a wrc+ of 150 and we just want to extend him.
I agree. I see no reason to trade Casas. I don't want to part with him, but trading Abreu makes a bit of sense given the available replacements in our pipeline. Even if Vlad Jr. is the desired target long term, we should wait and see what Casas does this year.
 

Fishy1

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I agree. I see no reason to trade Casas. I don't want to part with him, but trading Abreu makes a bit of sense given the available replacements in our pipeline. Even if Vlad Jr. is the desired target long term, we should wait and see what Casas does this year.
I think the available replacements aren't as tantalizing as we maybe think. I see the outfield right now as Anthony-Duran-Abreu, with Rafaela as a back-up in centerfield. Beyond that we have, what, Refsnyder? Romy in a pinch?

I'm maybe alone in this but I really don't want Rafaela starting in the long-term. I'm not sure he's ever better than a 1-2 fWAR player, with his bat being as bad as it is. Don't get me wrong, he's a very good defense outfielder--great even--but offensively he's like if JBJ couldn't take a walk. And he strikes out too much to get away with not walking. I wouldn't be surprised at all if his career OBP ended up being .275. He was a black hole last year, and it really dragged the offense down. I suspect Wong is going to regress offensively, too, and I don't want to commit to starting both of those guys.
 

cantor44

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I think the available replacements aren't as tantalizing as we maybe think. I see the outfield right now as Anthony-Duran-Abreu, with Rafaela as a back-up in centerfield. Beyond that we have, what, Refsnyder? Romy in a pinch?

I'm maybe alone in this but I really don't want Rafaela starting in the long-term. I'm not sure he's ever better than a 1-2 fWAR player, with his bat being as bad as it is. Don't get me wrong, he's a very good defense outfielder--great even--but offensively he's like if JBJ couldn't take a walk. And he strikes out too much to get away with not walking. I wouldn't be surprised at all if his career OBP ended up being .275. He was a black hole last year, and it really dragged the offense down. I suspect Wong is going to regress offensively, too, and I don't want to commit to starting both of those guys.
And and even JBJ had 6 prime years where his OPS was between 717 and 835, three times topping 800. And in that time he was crazily streaking - could go a full month being the best hitter of the team. That is, I agree: Rafaela is no JBJ. He's a really useful utility piece and I'm glad he's on the team - defense, speed, versatility - but probably best as super sub, not a starter.
 

PedroisGod

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I think the available replacements aren't as tantalizing as we maybe think. I see the outfield right now as Anthony-Duran-Abreu, with Rafaela as a back-up in centerfield. Beyond that we have, what, Refsnyder? Romy in a pinch?

I'm maybe alone in this but I really don't want Rafaela starting in the long-term. I'm not sure he's ever better than a 1-2 fWAR player, with his bat being as bad as it is. Don't get me wrong, he's a very good defense outfielder--great even--but offensively he's like if JBJ couldn't take a walk. And he strikes out too much to get away with not walking. I wouldn't be surprised at all if his career OBP ended up being .275. He was a black hole last year, and it really dragged the offense down. I suspect Wong is going to regress offensively, too, and I don't want to commit to starting both of those guys.
Fair enough. I share those concerns about Rafaela in the OF. I view our OF currently as Duran, Rafaela, Abreu with Anthony and Campbell in AAA to start. I think Campbell's likely future is in LF and Anthony's is in RF, but Campbell has some flexibility. I also think they'll make a run at signing Teoscar which would give us another LF/DH option and could keep Duran in CF with Anthony eventually in RF.
 

Fishy1

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And and even JBJ had 6 prime years where his OPS was between 717 and 835, three times topping 800. And in that time he was crazily streaking - could go a full month being the best hitter of the team. That is, I agree: Rafaela is no JBJ. He's a really useful utility piece and I'm glad he's on the team - defense, speed, versatility - but probably best as super sub, not a starter.
Yeah, JBJ's final career line was dragged down by an abysmal start and end--there's like 1400 plate appearances there where his wrc+ was 50 from ages 23-24 and 31-33. His last 100 plate appearances his wrc+ was literally 1.
 

Fishy1

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Fair enough. I share those concerns about Rafaela in the OF. I view our OF currently as Duran, Rafaela, Abreu with Anthony and Campbell in AAA to start. I think Campbell's likely future is in LF and Anthony's is in RF, but Campbell has some flexibility. I also think they'll make a run at signing Teoscar which would give us another LF/DH option and could keep Duran in CF with Anthony eventually in RF.
Yeah, I really disagree on this bit. I'm not sure why people are trying to move Campbell to left field when the FO moved him up the defensive spectrum last year, to SS.

I think Grissom is the one destined for left field (or DH or the tradeblock, TBH). People keep saying he'll be a good 2B but I saw a guy who was awkward out there--fine at turning double plays but overall with bad range and bad footwork. He's been a net negative at SS and 2B so far in his young career, whereas all indications with Campbell are that they think he might even be able to handle shortstop.

I'm just really reluctant to move Abreu off of right field when he 1) has an arm in the 98th percentile and 2) was in the 91th percentile for range. We had one of the best defensive outfields in baseball last year, and now we want to change that so we can acquire starting pitchers who might not be much better than Pivetta or Crawford if they're forced to pitch in the sardine can that is Fenway rather than Seattle's Grand Canyon.

And yeah, I don't want Teoscar in the outfield as he enters his age 32 season. At DH? Sure, but even then it worries me, because he's getting to that age when low BB%/high K% guys tend to fall of a cliff. He's got Hanley Ramirez written all over him, IMO (and Hanley didn't strike out much!) He was a bad outfielder when he was 25. He's going to be worse when he's 32.
 

simplicio

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I think the available replacements aren't as tantalizing as we maybe think. I see the outfield right now as Anthony-Duran-Abreu, with Rafaela as a back-up in centerfield. Beyond that we have, what, Refsnyder? Romy in a pinch?

I'm maybe alone in this but I really don't want Rafaela starting in the long-term. I'm not sure he's ever better than a 1-2 fWAR player, with his bat being as bad as it is. Don't get me wrong, he's a very good defense outfielder--great even--but offensively he's like if JBJ couldn't take a walk. And he strikes out too much to get away with not walking. I wouldn't be surprised at all if his career OBP ended up being .275. He was a black hole last year, and it really dragged the offense down. I suspect Wong is going to regress offensively, too, and I don't want to commit to starting both of those guys.
JBJ's first full year he had a .531 OPS. I'm glad we didn't give up on him after that.
 

PedroisGod

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Yeah, I really disagree on this bit. I'm not sure why people are trying to move Campbell to left field when the FO moved him up the defensive spectrum last year, to SS.

I think Grissom is the one destined for left field (or DH or the tradeblock, TBH). People keep saying he'll be a good 2B but I saw a guy who was awkward out there--fine at turning double plays but overall with bad range and bad footwork. He's been a net negative at SS and 2B so far in his young career, whereas all indications with Campbell are that they think he might even be able to handle shortstop.

I'm just really reluctant to move Abreu off of right field when he 1) has an arm in the 98th percentile and 2) was in the 91th percentile for range. We had one of the best defensive outfields in baseball last year, and now we want to change that so we can acquire starting pitchers who might not be much better than Pivetta or Crawford if they're forced to pitch in the sardine can that is Fenway rather than Seattle's Grand Canyon.

And yeah, I don't want Teoscar in the outfield as he enters his age 32 season. At DH? Sure, but even then it worries me, because he's getting to that age when low BB%/high K% guys tend to fall of a cliff. He's got Hanley Ramirez written all over him, IMO (and Hanley didn't strike out much!) He was a bad outfielder when he was 25. He's going to be worse when he's 32.
Hey man, I said I didn't really want them to trade Abreu but would understand if they did. I also didn't say I wanted them to trade Abreu for Castillo or one of the Seattle guys.

This can go in any number of directions. Whether we like it or not, they seem interested in signing Teoscar. That means either Yoshida gets moved (which is and has always been my preference) and Teoscar can DH or we'll end up trading an outfielder. I'm also totally fine with Campbell playing 2B, which I see as being much more likely than him playing SS. He seemed to only play SS when Mayer was hurt.
 

Fishy1

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Hey man, I said I didn't really want them to trade Abreu but would understand if they did. I also didn't say I wanted them to trade Abreu for Castillo or one of the Seattle guys.

This can go in any number of directions. Whether we like it or not, they seem interested in signing Teoscar. That means either Yoshida gets moved (which is and has always been my preference) and Teoscar can DH or we'll end up trading an outfielder. I'm also totally fine with Campbell playing 2B, which I see as being much more likely than him playing SS. He seemed to only play SS when Mayer was hurt.
Didn't mean to make it personal, it's just that there's been a lot of talk of moving him, and I just don't really see the need to do that, or where we'd get a good deal for him. Just observing that our best defensive/offensive alignment going forward is probably to keep Abreu in right field.
 

Fishy1

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JBJ's first full year he had a .531 OPS. I'm glad we didn't give up on him after that.
Fair! Although JBJ never had the plate discipline issues that Rafaela had. I'm not suggesting we give up on the guy, just that we make sure we have alternative plans in place.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I think the available replacements aren't as tantalizing as we maybe think. I see the outfield right now as Anthony-Duran-Abreu, with Rafaela as a back-up in centerfield. Beyond that we have, what, Refsnyder? Romy in a pinch?

I'm maybe alone in this but I really don't want Rafaela starting in the long-term. I'm not sure he's ever better than a 1-2 fWAR player, with his bat being as bad as it is. Don't get me wrong, he's a very good defense outfielder--great even--but offensively he's like if JBJ couldn't take a walk. And he strikes out too much to get away with not walking. I wouldn't be surprised at all if his career OBP ended up being .275. He was a black hole last year, and it really dragged the offense down. I suspect Wong is going to regress offensively, too, and I don't want to commit to starting both of those guys.
And yeah, I don't want Teoscar in the outfield as he enters his age 32 season. At DH? Sure, but even then it worries me, because he's getting to that age when low BB%/high K% guys tend to fall of a cliff. He's got Hanley Ramirez written all over him, IMO (and Hanley didn't strike out much!) He was a bad outfielder when he was 25. He's going to be worse when he's 32.
I have no interest in clogging things up with Teoscar Hernandez, who would block a player who could outperform him as early as 2026.

I also think we're too quick on giving up on Rafaela as a starting CF. He had great offensive stats in the minors in 2022/2023 and he played last year as a 23 year old. If he pushed Duran to LF, the Sox would have the best defensive outfield in MLB.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Regarding trade possibilities, with the Cardinals declaring themselves open for offers on Sonny Gray, I wonder why the Red Sox haven't been linked to him. I don't see him as reproducing his output from the past two seasons, but his peripherals look great and he doesn't appear to have any obvious vulnerabilities for Fenway Park. It's clear the FO has been talking with Bloom et al. given the Arenado rumors, so I'm curious about this one.
What would it take in a trade for Erick Fedde? He was great last year after overhauling his pitch mix in Korea. And he's on the last year of a very affordable contract, is capable of throwing a lot of innings, and will be 32 next year. Maybe a trade and extension candidate?

93122
 

PedroisGod

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Didn't mean to make it personal, it's just that there's been a lot of talk of moving him, and I just don't really see the need to do that, or where we'd get a good deal for him. Just observing that our best defensive/offensive alignment going forward is probably to keep Abreu in right field.
Yeah, my ideal lineup for 2025 includes Wilyer Abreu and Triston Casas. I actually don't think we need much offensively, other than to swap out Yoshida with a RHH, preferably one that doesn't cost a ton. I think my preference would be a trade for Taylor Ward - a guy who can play either corner outfield spot and hits lefties really well. I don't love the idea of committing long term to a guy like Teoscar who I share similar concerns about with the poster above me. 32 is about the age where low BB high K guys start to decline. Our 3B is likely to need to DH eventually or move to 1B and we're likely to target another 1B/DH type next year. It makes no sense to clog that position.

For 2025 year alone, Bregman would be a good fit, but again, we'd be committing long term to a corner spot. Unless we move Casas, then we'd be set at 1B/3B/DH and that would take us out of any Vlad conversations.

Signing Burnes, trading for Ward, and moving Yoshida would probably be my ideal close to the offseason other than addressing the bullpen.
 

AlNipper49

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Yeah, my ideal lineup for 2025 includes Wilyer Abreu and Triston Casas. I actually don't think we need much offensively, other than to swap out Yoshida with a RHH, preferably one that doesn't cost a ton. I think my preference would be a trade for Taylor Ward - a guy who can play either corner outfield spot and hits lefties really well. I don't love the idea of committing long term to a guy like Teoscar who I share similar concerns about with the poster above me. 32 is about the age where low BB high K guys start to decline. Our 3B is likely to need to DH eventually or move to 1B and we're likely to target another 1B/DH type next year. It makes no sense to clog that position.

For 2025 year alone, Bregman would be a good fit, but again, we'd be committing long term to a corner spot. Unless we move Casas, then we'd be set at 1B/3B/DH and that would take us out of any Vlad conversations.

Signing Burnes, trading for Ward, and moving Yoshida would probably be my ideal close to the offseason other than addressing the bullpen.
There are rumors Bregman would be open to moving to 2B

View: https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1854566566408409112
 

PedroisGod

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There are rumors Bregman would be open to moving to 2B

View: https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1854566566408409112
That would be great for 2025, and I like Bregman, but I think I'd rather just have Campbell as the future at 2B and not mess with the long term OF of Anthony, Duran, and Abreu. Committing long term to an offensive player at any position isn't my preference because it either forces a trade of somebody at some point if players develop as we think they might, or it makes signing Vlad more difficult. The bigger need for 2025 and the future is an innings eating anchor at the top of the rotation. If there's going to be a nine figure deal handed out, I'd rather it go to Burnes.

I wanted to add that forcing a trade of our guys isn't a bad thing. If Casas has a great year and the team still decides they'd rather have Vlad and they could cash in on Casas to get something else, then I have no problem with that. If all of our kids develop as well as we can hope and we suddenly have a surplus of major league talent, then cash in on that. I just don't think we're at a point yet where we know definitively what some of these guys are. And I don't think it's a great idea to deal from what we think is a position of surplus when it really might not be. It's one thing if the guy you're doing that for is Juan Soto, I don't think Bregman or Teoscar Hernandez are guys that we want to do that for.
 
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RedOctober3829

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I have no interest in clogging things up with Teoscar Hernandez, who would block a player who could outperform him as early as 2026.

I also think we're too quick on giving up on Rafaela as a starting CF. He had great offensive stats in the minors in 2022/2023 and he played last year as a 23 year old. If he pushed Duran to LF, the Sox would have the best defensive outfield in MLB.
I don't think you'd be "clogging things up" with Teoscar Hernandez. For one, you wouldn't be putting pressure on Anthony to have to be counted on in 2025. It would be a much deeper team. Hernandez also could slot in at DH in a rotation if/when Anthony comes up this year and then be the primary DH in 2026 and beyond when he's in his mid-30's. Hernandez would provide much needed right handed hitting power that they currently don't have as well. Signing Hernandez also would make Abreu more expendable in a trade for something else on the roster if need be so you could have an Hernandez/Anthony/Duran primary setup in the OF or Anthony/Rafaela/Duran setup with Hernandez DH'ing on certain days. Late inning defense would be fine too because you can just put Rafaela in CF and shift Anthony over to LF.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I don't think you'd be "clogging things up" with Teoscar Hernandez. For one, you wouldn't be putting pressure on Anthony to have to be counted on in 2025. It would be a much deeper team. Hernandez also could slot in at DH in a rotation if/when Anthony comes up this year and then be the primary DH in 2026 and beyond when he's in his mid-30's. Hernandez would provide much needed right handed hitting power that they currently don't have as well. Signing Hernandez also would make Abreu more expendable in a trade for something else on the roster if need be so you could have an Hernandez/Anthony/Duran primary setup in the OF or Anthony/Rafaela/Duran setup with Hernandez DH'ing on certain days. Late inning defense would be fine too because you can just put Rafaela in CF and shift Anthony over to LF.
Teoscar Hernandez was ranked as the second worst defensive LF in MLB last year, with a -8 DRS. He should be a DH immediately and, he will presumably sign a 3 or 4 year deal, which would overlap with the time frame of when Devers would/should be moved to DH. Plus he would cost a 2nd round draft pick. He's be 32 next year and Refsnyder has a higher OPS against lefties over the last two years (Resnyder at .941 last year and .828 in 2023, Hernandez at .931 last year and .817 in 2023).
 
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SouthernBoSox

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I just don’t see them spending the money or draft capital on Hernandez. He made sense last off season, not this one.

I’m expecting a signing for a SP and RP and a trade for right handed bat.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Teoscar Hernandez was ranked as the second worst defensive LF in MLB last year, with a -8 DRS. He should be a DH immediately and, he will presumably sign a 3 or 4 year deal, which would overlap with the time frame of when Devers would/should be moved to DH. Plus he would cost a 2nd round draft pick. He's be 32 next year and Refsnyder has a higher OPS against lefties over the last two years.
What about against RH? The team really needs players that can hit against both RH and LH. They have way too many LH who can’t hit LH and RH who can’t hit RH which makes them really vulnerable to late game matchups. There’s certainly room for Hernandez here; presumably he’d replace Yoshida. The fear of blocking players is way overstated around here; injuries happen. You need lots of bodies to get through a major league season, and it’s easier to get good ones now than it is in June.
 

RedOctober3829

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Teoscar Hernandez was ranked as the second worst defensive LF in MLB last year, with a -8 DRS. He should be a DH immediately and, he will presumably sign a 3 or 4 year deal, which would overlap with the time frame of when Devers would/should be moved to DH. Plus he would cost a 2nd round draft pick. He's be 32 next year and Refsnyder has a higher OPS against lefties over the last two years.
Playing left in Fenway instead of the pitchers park in the NL West would certainly help towards mitigating his defense. Devers is not being moved off of 3rd for at least a couple of years. He wants to play there and Cora/Breslow are not going to force him off of 3rd. Not concerned about comparing him to Rob Refsnyder. Refsnyder is a platoon OF whereas Hernandez is coming off a season where he hit 33 HR's and 99 RBI's with an OPS plus of 137 and a WAR of 4.3 compared to Refsnyder's 0.8.
 

Yo La Tengo

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What about against RH? The team really needs players that can hit against both RH and LH. They have way too many LH who can’t hit LH and RH who can’t hit RH which makes them really vulnerable to late game matchups. There’s certainly room for Hernandez here; presumably he’d replace Yoshida. The fear of blocking players is way overstated around here; injuries happen. You need lots of bodies to get through a major league season, and it’s easier to get good ones now than it is in June.
Duran, Casas, Devers, Abreu, Yoshida all hit Right Handed pitching very well. Whoever plays 2B will be immensely better than the numbers put up from that position last year. The complaint has been the lineup against lefties, which I think is slightly overblown and I think that Campbell, Anthony, and/or Meyers could be outproducing Hernandez, in overall value, as soon at next year and definitely over the next four years. So let's not block those guys with an expensive player in his 30s who can't play defense.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Duran, Casas, Devers, Abreu, Yoshida all hit Right Handed pitching very well. Whoever plays 2B will be immensely better than the numbers put up from that position last year. The complaint has been the lineup against lefties, which I think is slightly overblown and I think that Campbell, Anthony, and/or Meyers could be outproducing Hernandez, in overall value, as soon at next year and definitely over the next four years. So let's not block those guys with an expensive player in his 30s who can't play defense.
All those guys are lefties- that’s my point. The team is filled with lefties who can’t hit lefties and righties who can’t hit righties. A player like Hernandez who can hit well against both would be really valuable.

Again, I don’t think anyone ends up blocked because stuff happens. If it turns out that Campbell, Anthony, and Mayer are all out producing Hernandez next year, than queue up the duck boats.
 

pdub

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I was reading that we're in touch with Seattle about their pitching. One thing I fear happening is trading Casas+ for pitching, and then signing Bregman. If it is a deal centered around Abreu, I might bite depending on what else is included. But even then, I feel good about the rotation. If anything needs a look, its the bullpen. Sign Tanner Scott?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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All those guys are lefties- that’s my point. The team is filled with lefties who can’t hit lefties and righties who can’t hit righties. A player like Hernandez who can hit well against both would be really valuable.

Again, I don’t think anyone ends up blocked because stuff happens. If it turns out that Campbell, Anthony, and Mayer are all out producing Hernandez next year, than queue up the duck boats.
But the bolded really isn't true. Devers hits both. Casas hits both. Story hits both. Duran hits both. Yoshida actually can hit both when given the opportunity (career .791 OPS against LH starting pitching suggests it's only LOOGYs that give him trouble).

That's 5 spots in the lineup that don't have to be dictated by the opposing pitcher. Which leaves the other four spots to be filled by the remaining 8 hitters on the roster. Abreu and Refsnyder platoon in RF. Wong and (presumably) a LHH catcher platoon behind the plate. Hamilton, Romy, Rafaela, and Grissom mix and match through the other two spots. It can be done with the present roster.

That's not to say they can't and shouldn't try to improve it. But this belief that they desperately need RHH hitters, whether they can handle all pitchers or not, is overstated. Paying extra years and draft capital for Hernandez isn't necessary.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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But the bolded really isn't true. Devers hits both. Casas hits both. Story hits both. Duran hits both. Yoshida actually can hit both when given the opportunity (career .791 OPS against LH starting pitching suggests it's only LOOGYs that give him trouble).
It was certainly true last year. Sox RH hit 232/285/361 vs RH, while Sox LH hit 225/288/341 vs LH. That’s pretty poor, especially considering the Sox play in an “extreme hitters park”.

Duran and Devers had OPS well under 700 against lefties; Yoshida too. Story hasn’t hit much against righties since he was a Rockie, although his ability to mash lefties will help.

Casas and Wong are fine; but I can’t imagine Hernandez would hurt here; as will hopefully Grissom and others.
 

nvalvo

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I’m slicing samples fine, but we’re always doing that when we talk about platoon splits.

Yoshida’s platoon split was driven by being abjectly terrible against lefties right when he got back from his hand injury: 0/14 with a walk. Then he was fine against them for two months (.265/.356/.388) before trailing off in September in the face of some terrible BABIP luck.

The samples are too small to conclude much from that, you might say. Exactly. So in light of that fact, I think his mild split in 2023 and career in Japan with almost no split are likely more informative.
 

CKDexterHaven

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Still surprised at the interest in Bregman to possibly play second. I think I’d rather just have Grissom or Campbell there and put that 200 million toward Burnes. Burnes - Crochet - Houck in the playoffs is a tough road for any opponent.
 

kazuneko

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It seems like the purpose of signing Bregman (especially if they plan to put him at 2b to protect Devers ego) would be to acquire a RH bat, but shouldn’t we want want a RH bat that can hit LHP? Bregman has had three straight seasons of reverse splits; his best season in that stretch was when he had a .712 OPS against lefties last year.
If you acquire Bregman it should be to upgrade the IF defense. That means trading Yoshida and moving Devers to DH or 1b. Bregman fits on this team because he’s a far superior fielder to Devers. While certainly you’d hope he’d return to his previous (2021 and earlier) level of production with the bat there’s no reason to assume that, and they certainly shouldn’t sign him with that expectation.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Still surprised at the interest in Bregman to possibly play second. I think I’d rather just have Grissom or Campbell there and put that 200 million toward Burnes. Burnes - Crochet - Houck in the playoffs is a tough road for any opponent.
Honestly, I think all the Bregman talk is just to boost his profile on the market. I just can't see the Sox being interested in him to that degree. Breslow made the deal for Grissom last winter. I can't imagine he's given up on him just because injury screwed up his first half. And then there's the presence of Campbell on the farm and Hamilton on the 40-man. They have options for 2B that won't cost them what's being discussed for Bregman, and fairly likely to be just as productive.
 

kazuneko

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Honestly, I think all the Bregman talk is just to boost his profile on the market. I just can't see the Sox being interested in him to that degree. Breslow made the deal for Grissom last winter. I can't imagine he's given up on him just because injury screwed up his first half. And then there's the presence of Campbell on the farm and Hamilton on the 40-man. They have options for 2B that won't cost them what's being discussed for Bregman, and fairly likely to be just as productive.
Right. With Breslow denying that they’ve given any thought to moving Devers, one would hope that would be the end of the Bregman discussion. Maybe they are pretending to be interested to lower the price the Angels are asking for Ward.
Increasingly, the decision to not offer a qualifying offer to Tyler O’Neal looks like a mistake. He signed one of the more reasonable contracts of the offseason and he would have gotten less had the Sox given him a qualifying offer. They could have had him back for a fraction of what it would cost to get Hernandez who is older, a worse fielder, and had a comparable season in 2024.
 

E5 Yaz

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Still surprised at the interest in Bregman to possibly play second. I think I’d rather just have Grissom or Campbell there and put that 200 million toward Burnes. Burnes - Crochet - Houck in the playoffs is a tough road for any opponent.
The flaw in your ointment is that Burnes isn't going to cost $200M, or even the $218M that Fried got. You're looking at around the $250M mark, for the same 8 years. Ownership isn't going to go for that
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The flaw in your ointment is that Burnes isn't going to cost $200M, or even the $218M that Fried got. You're looking at around the $250M mark, for the same 8 years. Ownership isn't going to go for that
Very true about Burnes' likely price tag. However, given the premise is paying Bregman upwards of $200M to play 2B (or 3B with a convoluted swap around involving Devers and Casas), they're spending 80ish% of what it might cost for Burnes already. Go the extra mile for the more impactful player if they're going to spend that kind of money at all.