The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

PedroisGod

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There's two aspects to the free agent market - identifying the right targets and then judging how much it would be to realistically sign them.
You also can't change the unchangeable. Yamamoto last year was highly coveted by MANY teams including the Sox. He basically got to choose where he wanted to go.

I'm happy they were able to identify their targets correctly. I hope the purse is open a little more this year.
If they've got a budget (and they do), I don't want them overpaying for mediocrity.
Agree with this. I think they were on the right track with a lot of their targets, and I personally hate the overpay in FA for an ace. Aside from Cole and Wheeler, I can't think of too many of them that have worked out. But the Andrew Friedman quote that's been mentioned here recently stands out for me - if you're rational about every free agent you'll finish third on every free agent. If you have to overpay to get a guy and it's a one or two year deal, or give a guy a third year when you'd rather give two, then it's not going to kill you. Be aggressive and get your guy. It seems like they identified the right targets (Lugo, Imanaga, Teoscar) but were afraid to do what was necessary to seal the deal, which wouldn't have been so crazy especially after we saw the final deals.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Regarding Lugo and Hernandez, the reports from last year were that they were interested in each player, but either as secondary options (if other plans fell through), or only if they could make other moves first. Clearly, the players weren’t interested in waiting around and the Sox, because they couldn’t do x, seemed unable to do y. Guessing a lot of this was due to payroll constraints, but hopefully there’s some more flexibility in the off-season this year.
 

Mike473

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If the Sox are heading into 2025 with Houck, Bello, Crawford and Giolito I'd much rather see a more substantial addition than 2 years of Sonny Gray.
And who knows if they get much out of Giolito. He was trending the wrong way for a while before coming to Boston and his upside as an innings eater might be diminished coming off an injury lost year. When you add Giolito into the rotation, I worry about the amount of home runs the Red Sox might give up next season as a staff. That said, if you can grab an ace to add to the top, these issues will be less of a worry so long as Houck and Bello continue on the right path.
 

chrisfont9

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Regarding Lugo and Hernandez, the reports from last year were that they were interested in each player, but either as secondary options (if other plans fell through), or only if they could make other moves first. Clearly, the players weren’t interested in waiting around and the Sox, because they couldn’t do x, seemed unable to do y. Guessing a lot of this was due to payroll constraints, but hopefully there’s some more flexibility in the off-season this year.
Lugo signed December 12, so it may be that they cheaped out, or as you say they just weren't as fixated on him as they might have been later? Last winter was kind of a mess, Breslow came on board 2 weeks before free agency started, and the Yamamoto sweepstakes were a pointless distraction in hindsight. I would guess this year they are more sure of who they want and when to strike. Boras' delay tactics blew up in his face so maybe things will happen in a normal time frame (mid-Nov-late Dec).

The three prime guys -- Burnes, Fried, maybe Snell (option) -- are all some-risk, pricey-but-not-Yamamoto-level guys. If they see one of them as their guy, it shouldn't be any mystery as to what's necessary.

(unrelated: bye Astros!)
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think that’s probably likely; Breslow came in late and was getting up to speed, building out his team, and the market may not have moved a she anticipated, and of course he had some budgetary retractions to figure out…mostly issues that shouldn’t be factors this year.
 

flredsoxfan

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Who knows when Giolito will regain his strength as an innings eater - I'm hoping for 150 - 170 innings from him. I think Fried should be the target - Burnes was getting hit around toward the end of the year.
 

simplicio

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And who knows if they get much out of Giolito. He was trending the wrong way for a while before coming to Boston and his upside as an innings eater might be diminished coming off an injury lost year. When you add Giolito into the rotation, I worry about the amount of home runs the Red Sox might give up next season as a staff. That said, if you can grab an ace to add to the top, these issues will be less of a worry so long as Houck and Bello continue on the right path.
Drilling into Giolito's performance a bit:
89488
He was definitely down in 2022, though part of that looks like a BABIP outlier. He also lost some velocity in 2022 as well, but in interviews this spring pre-injury he was talking about how Bailey had already helped him get that back up, and his ST results backed that up. Whether that injury was due to the increased velocity is probably a very valid question.

He was also already rebounding in 2023 in the first half, before going through a divorce while simultaneously being traded traded twice in the fall. His HR rate was higher than I'd like before that, but it didn't truly spike until after the trades.

I'm optimistic about what we'll get from him if he's healthy.
 

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Who knows when Giolito will regain his strength as an innings eater - I'm hoping for 150 - 170 innings from him. I think Fried should be the target - Burnes was getting hit around toward the end of the year.
Burnes in September had
30 IP, 20 H, 4 ER
He also threw a gem yesterday.
He was most certainly not getting hit around toward the end of the year. He had a bad August(in no small part due to the Sox) and bounced back really well
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Would you pay him more than $22.5M after the year he just had? He'd have to really want to leave
Didn’t make the joke clearly enough…. He’s definitely opting in and I definitely wouldn’t touch him.

But what about Brandon Woodruff? He could be ready to pitch in ‘25 no? He’d be worth offering an interesting contract
 

simplicio

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Didn’t make the joke clearly enough…. He’s definitely opting in and I definitely wouldn’t touch him.

But what about Brandon Woodruff? He could be ready to pitch in ‘25 no? He’d be worth offering an interesting contract
Brewers gave him a 2 year deal (with a 2026 mutual option) in February.

Also shoulder capsule tears are very far from certain recoveries, happy not to be holding the risk on that one.
 

TrotNixonRing

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Burnes in September had
30 IP, 20 H, 4 ER
He also threw a gem yesterday.
He was most certainly not getting hit around toward the end of the year. He had a bad August(in no small part due to the Sox) and bounced back really well
back up the Brink’s truck, know you’re going to overpay, do it anyhow and enjoy it. This is what we need at the top of the rotation.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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E5 Yaz

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Howzabout we just say that Woodruff likely isn't available to the Red Sox next season?
 

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beautokyo

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The Sox do have an outside shot but yes, I agree it's mostly a dream. His situation is completely different than Yamamoto's (see below).


Sasaki was rumored to have tried to go after last season as a 22yo. I think it's very likely he ends up going this year. He threw a complete game (1 ER, 10 K) last night to clinch a playoff berth and apparently scouts from 10 MLB teams were in attendance up in Sendai. This article in Japanese says that Sasaki himself has been quiet about the timing of his potential departure but posits that the number of scouts in attendance last night strongly suggests it's go time.


imho this is correct. As @simplicio notes, if he makes the move for either the 2025 or 2026 seasons, he'll still be subject to normal IFA rules, and would only be able initially to sign a minor league deal. Which means since every team can afford him, he'll go wherever he wants to go. It's going to be a question of where he's the most comfortable, not who shells out the most dollars.
If Sasaki comes to the MLB next year it will be in SD as he looks up to Darvish. Plus Darvish is pushing Lotte to let him go early. It's a done deal imho.
 

chawson

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What do folks think about the idea of signing Clay Holmes? Seems like the Yankees aren't interested in bringing him back and he almost surely won't cost a pick.

I haven't watched him a lot this year (besides Yoshida lighting him up a few times), but it looks to me like he's been BABIP'd to death. No significant measurable decline in his stuff.

I'm generally aboard the Slaten as closer train (and I'd be happy to bring Martin back for 2025 too). But Holmes could be a good handcuff, and maybe some insurance in case Hendriks doesn't fully recover and/or Martin wants to go elsewhere for 2025.

MLB Bullpen
Slaten (FA 2030)
Holmes (3/$45M)
Hendriks (FA 2026)
Martin (FA 2026)
Booser
Bernardino (no options left)
Whitlock (FA 2029)
Criswell (no options left)

Midseason
Fulmer (FA 2026)

Shuttle
Kelly
Guerrero
Penrod
Campbell
Weissert

Traded for parts
Winckowski
 

Fishy1

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What do folks think about the idea of signing Clay Holmes? Seems like the Yankees aren't interested in bringing him back and he almost surely won't cost a pick.

I haven't watched him a lot this year (besides Yoshida lighting him up a few times), but it looks to me like he's been BABIP'd to death. No significant measurable decline in his stuff.

I'm generally aboard the Slaten as closer train (and I'd be happy to bring Martin back for 2025 too). But Holmes could be a good handcuff, and maybe some insurance in case Hendriks doesn't fully recover and/or Martin wants to go elsewhere for 2025.

MLB Bullpen
Slaten (FA 2030)
Holmes (3/$45M)
Hendriks (FA 2026)
Martin (FA 2026)
Booser
Bernardino (no options left)
Whitlock (FA 2029)
Criswell (no options left)

Midseason
Fulmer (FA 2026)

Shuttle
Kelly
Guerrero
Penrod
Campbell
Weissert

Traded for parts
Winckowski
I'm coming around to the idea of signing a guy like Holmes or Taylor Scott. I'd rather not spend 45/3 if the budget is going to be like it was last year, but if there's budget to get a reliever, a starter, and a star position player, I'm totally on board.

But if the budget is going to be like it was the last couple years, I'm pretty averse to spending 25 million or whatever on a reliever or two when that money could be spent more impactfully.
 
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ElcaballitoMVP

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Didn’t make the joke clearly enough…. He’s definitely opting in and I definitely wouldn’t touch him.

But what about Brandon Woodruff? He could be ready to pitch in ‘25 no? He’d be worth offering an interesting contract
To be fair, I've had a rough few days lately, so humor is easily lost on me right now.
 

chawson

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I'm coming around to the idea of signing a guy like Holmes or Taylor Scott. I'd rather not spend 45/3 if the budget is going to be like it was last year, but if there's budget to get a reliever, a starter, and a star position player, I'm totally on board.

But if the budget is going to be like it was the last couple years, I'm pretty averse to spending 25 million or whatever on a reliever or two when that money could be spent more impactfully.
Yeah that’s fair. Seems uncharacteristic of them to grab a top-flight reliever. Scott seems like he might command Hader money.

Not to aim this at you, but re the budget going forward, I think we’ll be fine. FWIW, I still believe the firm budget theory is conjecture. Here’s what Breslow said on Monday.

“Given that now I’ve been here close to a year, I would say at no point did I get a directive from ownership about a baseball operation decision. I feel like as the Chief Baseball Officer ultimately I’m accountable for baseball decisions. So if we feel like there’s an opportunity to improve the team via a certain pathway, I feel very confident that not only will we have the resources but also the endorsement from ownership.”

The idea that Breslow inherited a really young team a week before free agency, installed a massive organizational shift in pitching development, and sought to acquire a few interesting arms for short commitments without risking any bad long-term contracts or exceeding the CBT — a half-competitive, half-evaluative year — that all passes the smell test to me. His job is way easier now for not having signed _______ to a 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-, or 7-year deal.
 

mikcou

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Yeah that’s fair. Seems uncharacteristic of them to grab a top-flight reliever. Scott seems like he might command Hader money.

Not to aim this at you, but re the budget going forward, I think we’ll be fine. FWIW, I still believe the firm budget theory is conjecture. Here’s what Breslow said on Monday.

“Given that now I’ve been here close to a year, I would say at no point did I get a directive from ownership about a baseball operation decision. I feel like as the Chief Baseball Officer ultimately I’m accountable for baseball decisions. So if we feel like there’s an opportunity to improve the team via a certain pathway, I feel very confident that not only will we have the resources but also the endorsement from ownership.”

The idea that Breslow inherited a really young team a week before free agency, installed a massive organizational shift in pitching development, and sought to acquire a few interesting arms for short commitments without risking any bad long-term contracts or exceeding the CBT — a half-competitive, half-evaluative year — that all passes the smell test to me. His job is way easier now for not having signed _______ to a 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-, or 7-year deal.

I dont think you can infer anything from the bolded part or really the entire quote to say anything about the budget. The budget is not a business operation decision.

Now maybe they go up from where they were spending this year, but that quote doesnt indicate anything.
 

RSC3000

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If Sasaki comes to the MLB next year it will be in SD as he looks up to Darvish. Plus Darvish is pushing Lotte to let him go early. It's a done deal imho.
This is the guy I'd love to see us blank check when he's available in the near future. My guess is the likelihood of this ever happening though is a hair above zero. So I won't hold my breath.

I'm generally not in favor of the huge contracts to starters that are approaching 30, however it feels like a worthy investment and risk to go hard after someone like Burnes. I place a premium on durability so would rather spend more for him than someone like Fried, even if the stuff starts to diminish over the length of the deal. I'm sure the final contract he signs will be ridiculous, but we seemingly have all the pieces and the trade route seems likely to be more prohibitive than just paying for a plug and play ace.
 

chrisfont9

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Yeah that’s fair. Seems uncharacteristic of them to grab a top-flight reliever. Scott seems like he might command Hader money.
The 2018 model went light on relief and heavy on starters, with the idea that they could plug starters into relief in the playoffs. Not that they would explicitly try to repeat that, but I imagine they might take care to address the starter needs first before giving out a big contract to a reliever?
“Given that now I’ve been here close to a year, I would say at no point did I get a directive from ownership about a baseball operation decision. I feel like as the Chief Baseball Officer ultimately I’m accountable for baseball decisions. So if we feel like there’s an opportunity to improve the team via a certain pathway, I feel very confident that not only will we have the resources but also the endorsement from ownership.”

The idea that Breslow inherited a really young team a week before free agency, installed a massive organizational shift in pitching development, and sought to acquire a few interesting arms for short commitments without risking any bad long-term contracts or exceeding the CBT — a half-competitive, half-evaluative year — that all passes the smell test to me. His job is way easier now for not having signed _______ to a 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-, or 7-year deal.
With you 100% here.
 

TomRicardo

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“Given that now I’ve been here close to a year, I would say at no point did I get a directive from ownership about a baseball operation decision. I feel like as the Chief Baseball Officer ultimately I’m accountable for baseball decisions. So if we feel like there’s an opportunity to improve the team via a certain pathway, I feel very confident that not only will we have the resources but also the endorsement from ownership.”

The idea that Breslow inherited a really young team a week before free agency, installed a massive organizational shift in pitching development, and sought to acquire a few interesting arms for short commitments without risking any bad long-term contracts or exceeding the CBT — a half-competitive, half-evaluative year — that all passes the smell test to me. His job is way easier now for not having signed _______ to a 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-, or 7-year deal.
That is either an insane sentence or a bold face lie. He is saying he does not have a budget which would be a directive from ownership about a baseball operation decision. Either he has a number and/or in bidding situations Ownership gives guidelines about what they will or will not approve which is what ownership should do. So Breslow is either completely over his head at GM and/or jumping on grenade for his boss with a terrible track record.

Right now, Breslow is saddled with a top ten bad contract in Story and a negative value contract with Yoshida. Even with those he will have over 100 million before running up against the tax. If he can't build a 88 - 90 win team, he needs to be fired because he either is way out of his league or FSG is going to need a scapegoat for their complete indifference to team performance.
 

lexrageorge

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That is either an insane sentence or a bold face lie. He is saying he does not have a budget which would be a directive from ownership about a baseball operation decision. Either he has a number and/or in bidding situations Ownership gives guidelines about what they will or will not approve which is what ownership should do. So Breslow is either completely over his head at GM and/or jumping on grenade for his boss with a terrible track record.

Right now, Breslow is saddled with a top ten bad contract in Story and a negative value contract with Yoshida. Even with those he will have over 100 million before running up against the tax. If he can't build a 88 - 90 win team, he needs to be fired because he either is way out of his league or FSG is going to need a scapegoat for their complete indifference to team performance.
Another tiresome over parsing of words. Of course he had a budget, and nothing in that statement precludes that from being the case.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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Even with those he will have over 100 million before running up against the tax.
Just for the record, this isn't true. I am guessing you got it from Cot's, but their spreadsheet does not include arb and pre-arb salaries or Refsnyder's likely to be picked up option yet. With everything included, they are around $70M below the first line.

And just for a fun data point, the end of 2024 payroll ended up around $225M ($12M under the first tax line) with the trade deadline additions and the extra pre-arb salaries needed to cover all of the injuries. They absolutely could have gotten closer with another FA signing (or gone over, they certainly don't have to stay under), but they did not leave this massive wad of unspent cash as some seem to believe.
 

TomRicardo

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Just for the record, this isn't true. I am guessing you got it from Cot's, but their spreadsheet does not include arb and pre-arb salaries or Refsnyder's likely to be picked up option yet. With everything included, they are around $70M below the first line.

And just for a fun data point, the end of 2024 payroll ended up around $225M ($12M under the first tax line) with the trade deadline additions and the extra pre-arb salaries needed to cover all of the injuries. They absolutely could have gotten closer with another FA signing (or gone over, they certainly don't have to stay under), but they did not leave this massive wad of unspent cash as some seem to believe.
Unused cash? FSG is private equity driven entity designed maximize shareholder profit. That "saved" payroll is helping LeBron pay to scrub the memories of him at Diddy parties from the digital landscape.

Edit - Mind you this isn't for owner LeBron James, this is for the asset LeBron James [his marketing branch] - part of the wonderful portfolio at Fenway Sports Group. Friendly until you slide on the baby oil.
 
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simplicio

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Let's get this thread back to players, yeah? Doesn't need to be another general payroll argument, there are plenty of those.
 

chrisfont9

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OK players... Are we not interested in Nick Martinez? I don't know his repertoire and mostly I am just combing the pitching WAR leaders for bargains. There are a lot of them, at least in hindsight, though the ones on the market this winter will want a raise. Anyway, Martinez:
* can opt out of 1/$12m with Cincy (why not?)
* Just put up a 4.0 bWAR season
* Was a journeyman and in Japan for a few years but came back to the US and has had an ERA+ of 109, 123, and 142.
* Was a swingman for the Pads before more time starting this year, but lowered his HR/9 below 1 and walk rate from 3.3/9 to 1.1
* was terrific for the Pads in the 2022 postseason, his only experience.
* This year he spent some time in the pen and his starter numbers weren't quite as good as his overall line, but the control and WHIP were still there: 1.124 WHIP and 12 walks in 16 starts. ERA of 3.84. Not sure @ ERA+ as a starter but has to be decent.

Strikeout rates are above average but not the blinding numbers that cost you way more. Since coming back from Japan his hard hit numbers have been really solid. A bit FB heavy but as a righty that shouldn't be a huge problem in Fenway. He's 34 and would probably jump at a three year deal unless a lot of teams get involved. Worst case, he's been excellent in relief, so you could have some flexibility there. Went to Fordham so he's not allergic to the northeast.

What am i missing?
 

mikcou

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That is either an insane sentence or a bold face lie. He is saying he does not have a budget which would be a directive from ownership about a baseball operation decision. Either he has a number and/or in bidding situations Ownership gives guidelines about what they will or will not approve which is what ownership should do. So Breslow is either completely over his head at GM and/or jumping on grenade for his boss with a terrible track record.

Right now, Breslow is saddled with a top ten bad contract in Story and a negative value contract with Yoshida. Even with those he will have over 100 million before running up against the tax. If he can't build a 88 - 90 win team, he needs to be fired because he either is way out of his league or FSG is going to need a scapegoat for their complete indifference to team performance.
I dont think it is a lie. I also, as I said upthread, dont think that he is not saying that he does not have a budget; he is saying ownership does not interfere in baseball operations. Left unsaid, baseball operations just doesnt set the budget. Taking him at face, he just has the freedom to use the budget as he sees fit to accomplish his baseball operations objectives.

It could be a line that is intended to be misleading, but that is business operations throughout corporate America. Even if you lead a department (and get complete control over the department), you dont set your own budget. It is set for you.
 

mikcou

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Another tiresome over parsing of words. Of course he had a budget, and nothing in that statement precludes that from being the case.
Agreed, but it also doesnt say anything about what Chawson was posting it for. It says nothing about the budget or what the budget is or was. I'd take absolutely nothing from that comment that they are willing to say spend material more than $200M.
 

chawson

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That is either an insane sentence or a bold face lie. He is saying he does not have a budget which would be a directive from ownership about a baseball operation decision. Either he has a number and/or in bidding situations Ownership gives guidelines about what they will or will not approve which is what ownership should do. So Breslow is either completely over his head at GM and/or jumping on grenade for his boss with a terrible track record.

Right now, Breslow is saddled with a top ten bad contract in Story and a negative value contract with Yoshida. Even with those he will have over 100 million before running up against the tax. If he can't build a 88 - 90 win team, he needs to be fired because he either is way out of his league or FSG is going to need a scapegoat for their complete indifference to team performance.
Or Breslow personally decided that it wasn't worth exceeding the CBT in 2024 and starting the clock toward the draft pick / international free agent penalties a year before he needed to.

That is many times more plausible than your theory, which is that everyone is lying. It would have been dumb as hell to feel compelled to dip under the tax or face roster penalties in 2026 — when the team is sure to be a lot better — because we gave a premium contract to an aging so-so pitcher like Jordan Montgomery to paper over a decent team (and block a young starter's development) in 2024.

Alex Speier reported a year or two ago that the JWH ownership has always operated the same way. GMs and POBOs have free reign to sign who they want. Bigger signings need approval, but Henry cedes the decision making to the execs. He also holds them responsible for their outcomes. This report came out during the Bloom era (I'm paraphrasing from memory, but I'll try to find it if anyone needs me to). I'm not sure how it applies to Mookie (a trade that Dombrowski initiated), but all of Breslow's comments last winter and again on Monday suggest that the policy is the same.
 

E5 Yaz

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So, about those players Breslow should focus on bringing to Boston ...
 

simplicio

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OK players... Are we not interested in Nick Martinez? I don't know his repertoire and mostly I am just combing the pitching WAR leaders for bargains. There are a lot of them, at least in hindsight, though the ones on the market this winter will want a raise. Anyway, Martinez:
* can opt out of 1/$12m with Cincy (why not?)
* Just put up a 4.0 bWAR season
* Was a journeyman and in Japan for a few years but came back to the US and has had an ERA+ of 109, 123, and 142.
* Was a swingman for the Pads before more time starting this year, but lowered his HR/9 below 1 and walk rate from 3.3/9 to 1.1
* was terrific for the Pads in the 2022 postseason, his only experience.
* This year he spent some time in the pen and his starter numbers weren't quite as good as his overall line, but the control and WHIP were still there: 1.124 WHIP and 12 walks in 16 starts. ERA of 3.84. Not sure @ ERA+ as a starter but has to be decent.

Strikeout rates are above average but not the blinding numbers that cost you way more. Since coming back from Japan his hard hit numbers have been really solid. A bit FB heavy but as a righty that shouldn't be a huge problem in Fenway. He's 34 and would probably jump at a three year deal unless a lot of teams get involved. Worst case, he's been excellent in relief, so you could have some flexibility there. Went to Fordham so he's not allergic to the northeast.

What am i missing?
I am! OP:
Bonus budget SP option: Nick Martinez, 3/$36. He's another pitching+ monster with a newly excellent walk rate, and without the HR problems that have plagued Pivetta and Crawford. A little older going into his age 34 season but I could see him being a very Breslow/Bailey choice, and he should age well cause he's never been a big velo guy. Also performed in another hitter's park this year in CIN.
This seems like a good list to be on:
89538

Let's get this thread back to players, yeah? Doesn't need to be another general payroll argument, there are plenty of those.
89539
 

SuperDieHard

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What the Sox need is all-star top level talent. To that end I’d be all in on Burnes AND Fried.
Burnes, Fried, Giolito, Hauck, Bello…..now that’s a starting five.
Package Wilyer, Crawford, Winckowski, Yoshida (subsidized), Valdez for a righty bat and relief pitching (or righty bat and future potential 1/2 starter)
 
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ElcaballitoMVP

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1. Sign Corbin Burnes
2. Trade for Garrett Crochet and Andrew Vaughn (Mayer and Kutter Crawford as the main pieces heading out), try to sign Crochet to a long-term deal.
3. Trade Abreu in a package for a high-end reliever (Mason Miller, Ryan Helsley, etc.)

Rotation: Burnes, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito (with Prestier and Fitts as depth in the minors)
Bullpen: Miller/Helsley, Hendricks, Slaten, Booser, Whitlock as your main bullpen pieces and trust Breslow to find an under-the-radar piece or two that won't cost too much.

Lineup: Duran (CF), Story (SS), Devers (3B), Casas (1B), Vaughn (DH), Anthony (RF), Grissom (2B), Wong/Teel (C), Campbell (LF) with Rafaela backing up all over the place until Story inevitably gets hurt.

I don't have BTV to know if either of those trades are in the ballpark. I'd guess we'd need to add something pretty significant to get Miller from Oakland, Helsley is probably a more realistic target.

The bullpen might be a bit too thin, but they can add at the deadline, if needed. A cheap backup at C would be fine too if they want to wait a little longer on Teel.

Smaller moves like trading Yoshida and cash to find a better roster fit, bringing back Martin to the pen for a year, all fine by me, but I was just focusing on bigger moves here. Feel free to pick this apart.
 

grimshaw

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May 16, 2007
4,533
Portland
2. Trade for Garrett Crochet and Andrew Vaughn (Mayer and Kutter Crawford as the main pieces heading out), try to sign Crochet to a long-term deal.
3. Trade Abreu in a package for a high-end reliever (Mason Miller, Ryan Helsley, etc.)
I don't have BTV to know if either of those trades are in the ballpark. I'd guess we'd need to add something pretty significant to get Miller from Oakland, Helsley is probably a more realistic target.
Mayer alone for Crochet is a huge overpay. (64.9 vs 41) and Crawford is also very valuable (27.7) Vaughn has no trade value since he's basically replacement level.

Miller (53.5) would cost something like Teel (40.4), Slaten (10.7) and another prospect. I'd never try and trade for a cost controlled reliever that good since the bust rate is so risky and you're giving up multiple assets for someone you pray to god stays healthy.

Helsley (15.5) would cost something like (Hamilton 11.1) and some lower level prospects. I would go along that route as I had mentioned earlier or for Doval (12.1)
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
10,139
Miller and Crochet both worry me specifically because of injury risk. They have histories and deliveries that make them (even) higher risk than your average pitcher. Maybe with Miller you're getting enough years of control to write it off as inevitable, but if Crochet goes down and misses 18 months you've just traded your top prospect for an exclusive bargaining window on an extension, yay.