The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?
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I think it would be fair value, but also think the Pirates would ask for more, just because pitching is so scarce right now.
I'm very much warming to the idea of trying to swing a deal for Seiya Suzuki. There was a report that the Cubs were "determined to deal him". He is a RH bat, great OBP guy. Some pop, some speed. Could likely play LF in Boston. Not a terrible contract and only for two years. And as someone else mentioned, Yoshida is a weird fit on this team but still a very good hitter. IF his shoulder is healthy and he could at least play some games in LF, especially at Fenway, these two Japanese guys could be on base a lot. It also wouldn't hurt their pursuit of Sasaki. The Sox do have a pretty good recent history with Japanese pitchers, as well as a handful of Japanese speaking trainers and strength and conditioning coaches.
If the brain-trust decides the team needs another right handed outfielder, I'd rather have them target Lane Thomas, who should be much cheaper, is a better defender, and has just one year left on his deal, so as to not block any of the young players coming up. Thomas over this career has hit lefties well: .302/.366/.514 with the platoon advantage for a 140 wRC+, but .223/.290/.391 against righties for an 87 wRC+. He can play all three outfield positions, with a reputation of being around league average in center, with a very strong arm. He also stole 32 bases last year. Cleveland is looking to trade Thomas in an effort to reduce the team's salary.
I don’t think Thomas is a good fit; there isn’t room on the roster for yet another player with such an extreme split; a sub 700 OPS against RHP makes him redundant to Refsnyder.
I’m with you on Seiya depending on the cost. He has continually gotten better after a slow start and you’d be getting his age 30/31 seasons without having to make a major commitment beyond that.
I think you're right, unless they decide Rafaela is starting in CF with Duran in LF, in which case Thomas could be added to DH or play OF against lefties and play the role of pinch runner as well.
Is it fair to compare Corbin Burnes being traded with one year of control remaining with the potential of Framber Valdez being potentially available with a year of control? If so, the Brewers got Joey Ortiz, Pipeline's #63 overall prospect, LH D.L. Hall (not sure if he was in top 100, anyone?) and a competitive balance pick that turned out to be #34 (similar to what we'll likely get when Pivetta signs). What would be the equivalent package the Sox could hope to offer to get a really good LHP Dominican pitcher who we could hopefully extend?
I think they are throwing some cold water on Seiya being traded? I wonder if teams are keeping their Japanese star players until Sasaki picks a team? I'd think the Cubs have a story to pitch him.
A question for our SoSH posters who have a pulse on Nippon Pro Baseball: any opinions on 27 yr old LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara (Chunichi Dragons) who was posted earlier today and has 45 days to sign?
My current dream scenario:
Sign Sasaki (about a zero chance of that)
Sign Eovaldi (reasonable shot of that if they want)
Sign a RH power bat (Teoscar works; Bregman I can live with though I'm not pushing for that)
Sign another good RP
Trade Yoshida + $$ for a prospect to lighten the financial load and open a spot for Campbell/Anthony
Sign Sasaki (about a zero chance of that)
Sign Eovaldi (reasonable shot of that if they want)
Sign a RH power bat (Teoscar works; Bregman I can live with though I'm not pushing for that)
Sign another good RP
Trade Yoshida + $$ for a prospect to lighten the financial load and open a spot for Campbell/Anthony
Sasaki’s agent just said he’d be open to a smaller market team because of the media so that
really opens up where he might wind up. SD is 6th largest city but is pretty relaxed. LA is obv massive.
really opens up where he might wind up. SD is 6th largest city but is pretty relaxed. LA is obv massive.
I thought there was zero chance of him coming here before, but now that I know he's looking for a place where he can hide from the media, I think the chances are somehow below zero.
Reporting today out of San Diego saying the Padres will not be over the luxury tax threshold in '25. They're already over and don't have a lot of options to save money.
How about Kutter Crawford for Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez? BTV has that as an overpay by Boston due to Suarez having negative value and Cease being a free agent after '25. SD needs cheap MLB talent, particularly in the rotation. Sox can flex their financial muscle to upgrade the rotation with Cease and install Suarez as their closer. SD would save about $21M in this deal. And I think SD would be more open to this type of deal if they do land Sasaki.
Pair that deal with a Fried/Burnes signing and the rotation would be Fried/Burnes, Cease, Houck, Bello, Giolito and the back end of the bullpen being Suarez, Chapman, Slaten, Hendricks, Whitlock
How about Kutter Crawford for Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez? BTV has that as an overpay by Boston due to Suarez having negative value and Cease being a free agent after '25. SD needs cheap MLB talent, particularly in the rotation. Sox can flex their financial muscle to upgrade the rotation with Cease and install Suarez as their closer. SD would save about $21M in this deal. And I think SD would be more open to this type of deal if they do land Sasaki.
Pair that deal with a Fried/Burnes signing and the rotation would be Fried/Burnes, Cease, Houck, Bello, Giolito and the back end of the bullpen being Suarez, Chapman, Slaten, Hendricks, Whitlock
LOVE THIS. That would be a really interesting move, would love to hear more opinions on this.
Reupping this.
Sox have now achieved one of my 4 wish list items for the offseason (although Chapman was definitely not my preferred signing). Still, grabbing someone like Suarez would be great.
Now that the Soto sweepstakes are over, I want the Sox to go out and acquire 2 top end SPs: really any 2 of Burnes, Fried, Flaherty, Crochet, Luzardo, Cease as noted above, etc. Part of the appeal of the Breslow team is their expertise when it comes to pitching, so I trust them to identify the right guys there. But I want to see them move with some alacrity -- none of this "let's wait out the market and grab the leftover scraps" stuff. Identify your targets and go get them.
I'm still persuadable that adding another position player is important, but devil's in the details here. I don't want Arenado, and paying a lot of money to Bregman for his 30s doesn't fill me with confidence either.
Why wouldn’t San Diego just trade them for prospects? They both have value.
Yes, that would be more traditional, but I think the Padres are in an odd spot -- unlike most teams looking to cut costs, I don't think this is a full scale rebuild. They've got Machado, Tatis, Xander (whoops), Musgrove, Darvish under contract for years, a budding star in Merrill, and just took the Dodgers to Game 5 of the NLDS last year.
They probably feel their window is still open and are looking to compete while reducing costs. Trading a few high priced assets for a few much cheaper ML assets makes a lot more sense in that context.
Xander (since you mentioned him, dynamite):
Last 2 years with Boston:
2021 (28): .863 ops, 129 ops+, 5.0 bWAR, $20m
2022 (29): .833 ops, 131 ops+, 5.9 bWAR, $20m
First 2 years with San Diego:
2023 (30): .790 ops, 117 ops+, 4.4 bWAR, $25m
2024 (31): .688 ops, 92 ops+, 1.2 bWAR, $25m
And they're on the hook for NINE (!) more seasons at $25m apiece, through his age 40 season.
YIKES
Last 2 years with Boston:
2021 (28): .863 ops, 129 ops+, 5.0 bWAR, $20m
2022 (29): .833 ops, 131 ops+, 5.9 bWAR, $20m
First 2 years with San Diego:
2023 (30): .790 ops, 117 ops+, 4.4 bWAR, $25m
2024 (31): .688 ops, 92 ops+, 1.2 bWAR, $25m
And they're on the hook for NINE (!) more seasons at $25m apiece, through his age 40 season.
YIKES
If I’m San Diego, in order to give the Red Sox Dylan Cease for Kutter Crawford, they’re taking Xander back. I’m sure as hell not adding a reliever that was in the all star game last year that’s only making $10 million.
They've also been quite willing to wheel and deal, Brad Stevens-style. Like trading for Soto, and then turning around and trading him to the Yankees a year later, and then using part of that return (Thorpe) to get Cease. I mean think about that, for one year of Soto they got two years of Cease plus two years of Michael King.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if they wanted to flip one of Cease or King now before they become really expensive, while making other deals to keep themselves competitive, of course.
And if that's the case, Breslow hangs up the phone. No one is taking Xander's contract off their hands.
And the reason SD wouldn't trade those guys for prospects is because, as @dynomite pointed out, they're still trying to compete. They can't really go into a full rebuild, so unless those prospects are on the cusp of the big leagues, I don't think they're going to have a lot of interest in that kind of deal.
SD would trade those guys to free up money to get under the luxury tax and use some of that money to fill in holes that they have on their roster. Cease will be a free agent after '25 and they won't be able to resign him. Suarez is a bit of a luxury for them and they have in-house options to replace him. Both have been rumored here in SD to be guys they could move to save money, Trading Cease makes more sense if they can sign Sasaki, but they're going to have to get really creative if they want to stay under the luxury tax next year and have a roster that can make the playoffs.
Edit: I almost suggested a Wilyer for Cease/Suarez deal instead of Kutter, as the value is similar according to BTV (same with Casas). That could be something they're more interested in. Or, you add another cheap piece or two to the deal with Kutter. Either way, I think the Sox could take advantage of the Padres needing to save money here.
Then San Diego finds a different way to clear money that doesn’t involve trading a top 5 Cy Young finalist from last year for a 4th starter. I’m just trying to look at trade proposals from the other side of the table.
Great thoughts, and for the record, would love this deal as well.
This would also make a lot of sense for the Padres -- right now they have a gaping hole in LF on their roster. Filling it with a cost-controlled asset like Abreu would make a ton of sense. Still, with Musgrove out for 2025 with TJ, they might prefer an SP who can slot into their rotation next season.
Anyway, this is how I want to see the Red Sox operate again: supporting budding prospects with savvy veteran signings, while using their financial power to pounce on situations where other teams need to cut costs.
The thing with absorbing Xander's contract in exchange for Cease is, at that point, we're probably better off just signing Burnes or Fried (based on the projections I've seen, neither player is expected to get more than Xander's deal, though of course surprises can happen). That Xander deal is a huge poison pill that I'd rather we not swallow. The only way I could live with swallowing a contract like Xander's is if I'm getting a very young stud pitcher in return, someone like Paul Skenes. Cease is good but he's also almost 29 years old and will be a free agent by 2026. I understand the logic behind the idea but I'd pass.
I was assuming the Price deal 7/$210. I would do it. If they want to actually sign anyone good, they’re going to have to overpay like every other middle of the pack team that needs starting pitching.
I’m sure he’d rather go to the MFY. They were in the World Series last year, the Red Sox were .500. So they’re going to have to overpay to get him here.
I'm pretty sure Max Scherzer was 7 years/$210 million and David Price was 7 years/$217 million.
My guess for Fried is 7/$200 million. And Breslow should be ready to pay that.
I believe you are correct now that I think about it. Price was $217.
I’m not sure that $200 gets it done. They need to walk out of this meeting with a good starter or fans are going to flip out.
Haven't the Red Sox been pretty clear that they aren't looking to sign FA pitchers who are over 30 years old? Both Fried and Burnes are exactly 30 years old right now.
I'm not trying to be cute; I could have sworn that the team singled that out as something they weren't comfortable doing.
I'm not trying to be cute; I could have sworn that the team singled that out as something they weren't comfortable doing.
Trading Darvish is probably the move, except he's the biggest reason why they're favorites to get Sasaki. If I'm San Diego, I'd be asking for Houck back instead of Crawford, or find someone that's willing to take on Musgrove.
I know he and Giolito are close. Here's hoping that helps.
That's historically been the approach, but I suspect they have to do it with at least one of these guys. Getting two 30+ year old additions at Free Agent dollars is probably too risky.
They’re probably not comfortable with a half empty ballpark either. It’s the price of doing business. If you can’t grow your own pitching, you gotta pay through the nose for guys in their 30’s, or continue to suck and further tank your brand.
The Sox are at least in a great position financially where they have so many young guys, and so few onerous contracts, that they can afford to spend a ton on a guy like Fried, which honestly will seem like a bargain after what Soto just got. Fried fills their #1 need perfectly. He's the ideal get.
Perhaps they’ve decided that they aren’t comfortable finishing between 3rd and last in the division while they wait for their own starters to develop?
They have said that. They also said that they can’t rule that out, as recently as Breslow, yesterday. Messaging has been decidedly mixed.
That's why the Padres are in such a tough spot right now. They need Darvish if they want to land Sasaki. They can't trade Musgrove right now because he's probably out all season due to his TJ surgery. Cronenworth doesn't have much value. Maybe they could move Arraez, but they seemed to really like what he brought to their lineup last year. They don't have many other realistic trade options to save significant $ except Cease and Suarez
2 years of Cease cost San Diego 3 prospects in their 5-10 range, in a system that was very top heavy. The biggest name being Drew Thorpe, who's ceiling is probably middle to back end of the rotation. The other two have some decent ceiling upside but just as much downside. What's 1 year of Cease, making more money, worth? Certainly not Tanner Houck after the season he just had and with 3 years of control left.
Total home attendance in 2024 was less than 10% down from 2018. If you factor in expanded numbers of fans of other teams coming into Fenway in recent seasons, the ballpark revenue/attendee has likely grown (even beyond inflation). These fans making a once-in-a-lifetime trip to Fenway are less likely to eat outside the ballpark and more likely to load up on extras (tours, souvenirs, photos, and so forth).
That’s not a sustainable business model. They need a fan base. They need a brand. And right now it’s in the toilet.
I don't think attendance is driving their fear train. JWH would sit on his wallet indefinitely and admire the rings (I get it) if the only downside was a couple thousand seats...likely absorbed by out of towners anyway. I think the fear is NESN360...which can't be good.
Pretty sure it costs less than $200M to fix the worst app in the business . . .
Oh you mean people watching even if/when it's fixed?
I'm sorry, I tried to read this message, but it said I was out of the Service Area.
Not sure if it was mentioned upthread, if so I apologize. Attendance is one thing. Ticket prices are another. You can currently buy tickets to a Patriots game for $30 because the team sucks. Hope Henry is proud that Fenway is filled with fans rooting for visiting teams. I remember when that used to happen in parks when the Sox visited town.
Man if Kyle Tucker is truly on the block, he'd be someone I hope they're all over. Elite hitter just entering his peak, capable of real MVP-type numbers, excellent baserunner and still just 27.