The Championship Outlook: 2015 and beyond

Mystic Merlin · Feb 2, 2015

Vereen is a nice piece and would be missed but he strikes me as a guy that will be too rich for their taste/needs.

theapportioner · Feb 2, 2015

I wonder if the Patriots will make a Vinatieri-type decision with Ghost when his price becomes too high.

YTF · Feb 2, 2015

The roster will be solid for sure. I also think this team will be carrying a huge chip on it's shoulder going into next season. There is going to be a certain level of feeling disrespected because of Deflategate, the shit show surrounding it as well as the stigma that the team has had attached to it as well as many thinking that Pete Carroll lost this game rather than New England winning it. I think they will be more motivated than most teams looking to repeat and barring injury should be well tooled to get through the AFC and back to The Super Bowl.

Number45forever · Feb 2, 2015

Stitch01 · Feb 2, 2015

Hoping they can find room for McCourty and Revis. Still decisions to make on Mayo and Wilfork, but if McCourty and Revis are back that should be a good defensive unit next year plus they will get Easley back and (hopefully) healthy plus w/e FA and draft help they pick up.

Vereen is useful, hopefully he's back cheap due to the depressed running back market, but pessimistic he's back.

Siliga shouldn't cost a lot and is a nice piece.

I expect Connolly is gone and Wendell might be too, interior line is probably their biggest target for an upgrade this offseason IMO. That or one more pass rusher, but those guys are hard to find, best hope might be a 100% Easley.

Barring deflategate BS team is in good shape in the draft, should have an extra third and fourth rounder for Mankins/comp picks.

Good young core, particularly on defense. If Brady stays at a high level they should be right in the mix next year.

ragnarok725 · Feb 2, 2015

I think the Pats buck the trend of fungible RBs and pony up a bit for Vereen. He feels more essential than any of their other backs, with his role being more complex in the passing and blocking game than many of the other RBs like Blount and Ridley. I'm hoping they hold on to him a la Kevin Faulk.

The priorities obviously have to be McCourty and Revis. I think they franchise McCourty if they have to, but expect something equitable there. Revis... I really don't know. Even when Ty Law appealed to him last night he seemed to be cagey. I'd love for them to work something out, but I honestly don't know if I see it happening with other teams out there likely willing to make the big overpay.

Aside from that, Siliga would be my next target. Wilfork's tread is nearly gone, and Siliga has been a really nice piece. I'd love to see them lock him up on short money for a few years and get some value when he steps out of the shadow.

brandonchristensen · Feb 2, 2015

McCourty, Revis and Ghost are must-keeps IMO. They finally had a great backfield, they need to keep it together longer.

RedsoxfanVA01 · Feb 2, 2015

Who’s better in the AFC?

Tony C · Feb 2, 2015

ragnarok725 said:
I think the Pats buck the trend of fungible RBs and pony up a bit for Vereen. He feels more essential than any of their other backs, with his role being more complex in the passing and blocking game than many of the other RBs like Blount and Ridley. I'm hoping they hold on to him a la Kevin Faulk.

The priorities obviously have to be McCourty and Revis. I think they franchise McCourty if they have to, but expect something equitable there. Revis... I really don't know. Even when Ty Law appealed to him last night he seemed to be cagey. I'd love for them to work something out, but I honestly don't know if I see it happening with other teams out there likely willing to make the big overpay.

Aside from that, Siliga would be my next target. Wilfork's tread is nearly gone, and Siliga has been a really nice piece. I'd love to see them lock him up on short money for a few years and get some value when he steps out of the shadow.

Agree with every word of this. Not that I'd overpay for Vereen, he can be replaced, but getting guys who know the offense and can perform exactly their role in a complex system is tough. And Siliga is one of the unsung heroes, and I think will be chap to re-sign. McCourty is their #1 priority, and I'm optimistic on Revis now, too. I mean....Buffalo?

H78 · Feb 2, 2015

McCourty, Revis, Vereen. Ghost if the price is right. I like Wendell's positional flexibility too, so he's priority #5.

Good thing is IIRC this team has the space to possibly get this all done. And like someone mentioned, I think Easley could be looked at as an additional stud 1st round pick going into next year.

lexrageorge · Feb 2, 2015

I'm going to buck conventional wisdom and say that McCourty may be the toughest sign. This will likely be his one and only chance of a big payday, and while the Pats could use the franchise tag, I'm not sure if Belichick will want to burn $10M of cap space for a safety.

Revis: I think his value to the defense is obvious; I give it 50/50.

Vereen: He's a key cog to the team's offense, and so I wouldn't be surprised to see him back unless it gets out of hand.

Connolly: He may retire. If not, he's only back if he's will to accept a team friendly deal. I think Wendell will be a higher priority. I'm expecting OL to be addressed during the draft this year as well. Both Solder and Vollmer have had their battles with injuries in the past.

Ghost: Likely back if he wants to.

Mayo: I don't profess full understand of how his contract works, but $10M will be a big cap hit for a guy coming off a serious knee injury.

Wilfork: Decision day of March 1st looming when he has a $4M roster bonus due.

Solder: Likely target for a restructure with a $7.5M cap hit looming.

Stitch01 · Feb 2, 2015

Wendell is still under contract with a $2.4MM cap number next year and cuttable to save $2MM, so they could just roll with him.

Reardon's Beard · Feb 2, 2015

They need to keep Revis and McCourty. Should be priorities 1A and 1B, I absolutely agree. The rest of the defense seems to be falling into place or only improving, and I hear this Butler kid can play...

I agree with the sentiment that #34 is more important to this offense than the other backs. The shifty, cagey East-West running and comfort level for Brady may be too much to cheap out on. I guess it depends if they feel they can find someone else who can do those things - maybe they can? Is there anyone out there with a similar skill set? It could provide leverage in negotiations if nothing else.

Revis potentially leaving scares the hell out of me. I think Kraft saw the results and will pony up what it takes to keep him here. The question really is does he want to be here?

Stitch01 · Feb 2, 2015

If Revis isnt back, I doubt its because Kraft doesn't want to pony up dollars.

RedOctober3829 · Feb 2, 2015

Re-sign Revis
Re-sign McCourty
Extend Solder
Restructure Mayo
Re-sign Vereen
Bring back Branch and Siliga on the cheap

Draft OG
Draft DE

Sign Torrey Smith if at all possible

jsinger121 · Feb 2, 2015

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) · Feb 2, 2015

jsinger121 said:

Why isn't Peyton up there with all the all Time great Super Bowl winning QBs?

I am sure there is a draft of that picture somewhere that included him. It must have been so painful for the NFL and CBS to leave him off.

Dan to Theo to Ben · Feb 2, 2015

I think Revis is 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Everyone else is replaceable, even McCourty. My emphasis would be on the trenches (and Revis)

ragnarok725 · Feb 2, 2015

Reardons Beard said:
They need to keep Revis and McCourty. Should be priorities 1A and 1B, I absolutely agree. The rest of the defense seems to be falling into place or only improving, and I hear this Butler kid can play...

I agree with the sentiment that #34 is more important to this offense than the other backs. The shifty, cagey East-West running and comfort level for Brady may be too much to cheap out on. I guess it depends if they feel they can find someone else who can do those things - maybe they can? Is there anyone out there with a similar skill set? It could provide leverage in negotiations if nothing else.

Revis potentially leaving scares the hell out of me. I think Kraft saw the results and will pony up what it takes to keep him here. The question really is does he want to be here?

It seems like they tried to hedge their bets on a Vereen exit with the James White pick. Given how little he saw the field during the year, it's hard to imagine they're still high on his ability to backfill the role.

Jimy Hendrix · Feb 2, 2015

ragnarok725 said:
It seems like they tried to hedge their bets on a Vereen exit with the James White pick. Given how little he saw the field during the year, it's hard to imagine they're still high on his ability to backfill the role.

On the other hand, Vereen himself had a 2011 that looked a lot like White's 2014 in terms of playing time.

Rico Guapo · Feb 2, 2015

Revis is the #1 priority, with McCourty being a close #2, and then Vereen at #3.

That said I also really hope they bring back Siliga, Ayers, and Branch.

theapportioner · Feb 2, 2015

If Mayo is unwilling to significantly restructure his contract, I would be ok with letting him go. Very good player but not essential, as we have just seen. If it comes to trading Mayo versus paying Revis and McCourty, I'd definitely take the latter.

What about the free agent pool? Suh is a punk and likely too expensive, but I wouldn't mind adding Pierre-Paul if they could fit him into the budget.

Stitch01 · Feb 2, 2015

I think that's a great argument for why Revis might not need absolute top dollar to stay here, the question is what's the discount and how crazy are other teams going to get?

Kevin Youkulele · Feb 2, 2015

Stitch01 said:
I think that's a great argument for why Revis might not need absolute top dollar to stay here, the question is what's the discount and how crazy are other teams going to get?

The Pats have a chance to bargain with him in isolation since he is still under contract for the moment. Not sure whether he'll insist on testing the market, but they could try to wrap it up with him before he knows how crazy other teams are going to get.

Stitch01 · Feb 2, 2015

That's a good point if tampering rules are as sacred as ball pressure rules. Im guessing they arent.

Kevin Youkulele · Feb 2, 2015

Stitch01 said:
That's a good point if tampering rules are as sacred as ball pressure rules. Im guessing they arent.

I wonder if the severity of the Jets' tampering penalty will depend on what happens with Revis. If the Jets sign him, it would seem to be an aggravating factor.

wiffleballhero · Feb 2, 2015

2015 Match-ups are already set so if we are considering '15' more than the 'beyond' here, it is good to know what the games actually are.
I like 19-0 as much as the next person, but taking a really conservative approach to this, it still looks like the Pats should win a ton of games.
Home: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
Away: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants
Is 13 wins conservative?
The AFC East is what it is. Probably one loss there. Dallas and Denver on the road look tough. Otherwise?

wiffleballhero · Feb 2, 2015

Also, I thought the league had it rigged so the Pats always played Denver at home?

Ferm Sheller · Feb 2, 2015

wiffleballhero said:
Also, I thought the league had it rigged so the Pats always played Denver at home?

Denver fans will probably cry that the league waited until Manning became washed up.

bigsid05 · Feb 2, 2015

wiffleballhero said:
2015 Match-ups are already set so if we are considering '15' more than the 'beyond' here, it is good to know what the games actually are.
I like 19-0 as much as the next person, but taking a really conservative approach to this, it still looks like the Pats should win a ton of games.
Home: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
Away: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants
Is 13 wins conservative?
The AFC East is what it is. Probably one loss there. Dallas and Denver on the road look tough. Otherwise?

Indy, Denver, Dallas, NYG (yea that's basically giving them credit for history) on the road? Those could be tough games.

As with every year, hard to know how anything will shake out until at least the first few weeks of the season.

theapportioner · Feb 2, 2015

bigsid05 said:
Indy, Denver, Dallas, NYG (yea that's basically giving them credit for history) on the road? Those could be tough games.

As with every year, hard to know how anything will shake out until at least the first few weeks of the season.

Anything less that 63-7 in that Indy game would be unacceptable.

bigsid05 · Feb 2, 2015

theapportioner said:
Anything less that 63-7 in that Indy game would be unacceptable.

If rumors are true that the Colts GM started deflategate, no doubt BB will go into FU mode for that game.

wiffleballhero · Feb 2, 2015

bigsid05 said:
If rumors are true that the Colts GM started deflategate, no doubt BB will go into FU mode for that game.

Yes. This should be a ton of fun because it is not like it is just BB that is likely going to mark the calendar for that one.

nattysez · Feb 2, 2015

BigSoxFan said:
I think the home schedule looks pretty light but the road schedule looks pretty daunting. 11-5 or 12-4 sounds about right to me without knowing what the hell we'll be doing this offseason.

I agree with this. I think the AFCE could be better -- potentially a lot better -- if BUF and NYJ find competent QBs.

The Pats will play the season-opener at home next year, so the league likely will make that a marquee match-up. I'd guess the Steelers are Game #1, with Terry Bradshaw invited to flip the coin and welcome Brady to the 4 SB club. As first games can be a little disjointed, having to face PIT in game #1 is not ideal.

soxfan121 · Feb 2, 2015

Several months ago, in a place not too far away, I jokingly predicted the reverse ending to Brady's career; back-to-back juggernaut champs with close SB wins (4 points, then 3 points...because this is backward), followed by a season where they miss the playoffs and in which everyone doubts his future, followed by losing his starter gig at the beginning of the (last) season, but the starter getting hurt and then Tom leading the team on a miracle, storybook season that ends with his hands on his head, shaking his head in disbelief and a sixth title.

Yes, he'd then have to spend a season as a 4th string backup before retiring, but it's late and STEP ONE of the Reverse Brady is complete - a four point win over the best NFC team.

STEP TWO has a mighty long win streak, if I recall correctly. This can happen, people.

dynomite · Feb 2, 2015

Edit: I'll say up front I debated whether to post this. I just want to genuflect in this for a little while longer. Like, for another 9 months. So I put some preliminary thoughts below, but really... I'm just so damn happy.

Anyway, if memory serves, a primary piece of the Belichick philosophy is to evaluate each player not just on their own merit, but on the ability of the team to upgrade at the position. In that vein, here are my initial thoughts on 4 of the highest profile decisions:

Impossible to upgrade (or replace, really):

ivanvamp said:
McCourty
Revis

Pro Bowl/All Pro players who are in the Top 3 in the NFL at their position. McCourty in particular seems like a lock to return. I think the odds that Revis returns actually went down last night (HAPPY TO TAKE THE TRADEOFF) but ultimately it seems like Belichick the GM realized that he needed to go outside the organization at the CB position -- getting a true shutdown DB is like finding a true #1 SP.

Difficult to upgrade, but could replace:

Connolly
Gostkowski

After the Mankins trade, Connolly became a team captain for the first time and the new veteran leader of the offensive line. Belichick talked about him during the season, and a recent article mentioned that the entire line basically lived at his house during holidays, bye week, etc. That said, he'll be 33 and has a history of concussions. With Kline's improvement and the Patriots likely to focus on the Guard position in the draft/UDFA process, Connolly might be the odd man out.

I defer to Chuck Z on Ghost, but will say it has become a thing among my friends how much I love Gostkowski (I just call him "Nails"). He has been one of the best kickers in the NFL for a while now, a particular advantage for a team that kicks a lot of FGs. (3rd most attempts in the NFL in 2014). That said, in the modern NFL there is just so much talent at the kicking position (6 guys hit 90%+ of their kicks this year and 11 -- ELEVEN -- guys did so in 2013, which is straight up ridiculous). It's hard to imagine even a special teams obsessed coach like Belichick breaking the bank for someone who could potentially be replaced... although, if longer extra points are coming, does that change the equation?

ElcaballitoMVP · Feb 3, 2015

1. Revis. He and Browner completely changed the back end of that defense. Find a number that works for both parties and keep him where he belongs.
2. McCourty. The CB's got a lot of the attention, but DMC was a rock in centerfield. He'd be tough to replace.
3. Siliga. I love the guy's run D and Vince isn't getting any younger. Shouldn't cost too much.
4. Vereen. Him and Blount make for such a well balanced backfield, I'd keep him around if the numbers aren't crazy.

Draft: OL, DL, WR/TE, maybe LB depending on what they do with Mayo.

Then go win one for the thumb.

Salva135 · Feb 3, 2015

What is Ridley's contract situation? Anyone remember him?

Tony C · Feb 3, 2015

free agent. doubt he'll have much of a market...wouldn't be surprised if he comes back on a short money/1 year prove it deal.

kenneycb · Feb 3, 2015

He has none. UFA.

Super Nomario · Feb 3, 2015

dynomite said:
I defer to Chuck Z on Ghost, but will say it has become a thing among my friends how much I love Gostkowski (I just call him "Nails"). He has been one of the best kickers in the NFL for a while now, a particular advantage for a team that kicks a lot of FGs. (3rd most attempts in the NFL in 2014). That said, in the modern NFL there is just so much talent at the kicking position (6 guys hit 90%+ of their kicks this year and 11 -- ELEVEN -- guys did so in 2013, which is straight up ridiculous). It's hard to imagine even a special teams obsessed coach like Belichick breaking the bank for someone who could potentially be replaced... although, if longer extra points are coming, does that change the equation?

They kept Gostkowski this year even though they would have saved $3 MM by cutting him; hell, they didn't even bring in competition for him in camp. He had the ninth-highest cap hit on the team. I think they'll find a way to get something done, and wouldn't be surprised if Gostkowski's cap hit is less than the $3.8 MM it was in 2014.

Devizier · Feb 3, 2015

my thoughts:

Revis and McCourty are the top free agency priorities.
Rumored Wilfork retirement.
Extensions for Solder, Jones, Hightower.
Restructure for Mayo?
Vereen on a Faulk deal if possible.

Won't be a lot of space for a splashy free agency signing, so the Patriots will have to make their moves in the draft. The Revis deal is critical, because the Patriots are over the cap today and need to move under to keep anyone at this point.

Since they never sign veteran OL, the draft is a good place for interior line guys anyways. So, heavy on the lines in the draft.

Keep a war chest available for next years' Ayers and Siligas.

mjohnson406 · Feb 3, 2015

The difference in Gostkowski loomimg free agency and Vinatieri's is Ghost's ability to put the ball through the end zone on kickoffs for touchbacks. Adam is still as accurate, if not more so, at field goals but his kickoffs were a liability and that contributed to Bill letting him walk.

loshjott · Feb 3, 2015

mjohnson406 said:
The difference in Gostkowski loomimg free agency and Vinatieri's is Ghost's ability to put the ball through the end zone on kickoffs for touchbacks. Adam is still as accurate, if not more so, at field goals but his kickoffs were a liability and that contributed to Bill letting him walk.

It's amazing that after all these years with Ghost kicking in the post-season I can't recall any true high leverage kicks he's needed to make. Big miss this year in Lambeau but not truly high lev, and not the post-season of course. BB deprived him of his one chance in the game that (still) cannot be named.

kenneycb · Feb 3, 2015

loshjott said:
It's amazing that after all these years with Ghost kicking in the post-season I can't recall any true high leverage kicks he's needed to make. Big miss this year in Lambeau but not truly high lev, and not the post-season of course. BB deprived him of his one chance in the game that (still) cannot be named.

The one against San Diego in the Troy Brown game.

dcmissle · Feb 3, 2015

my thoughts:

Revis and McCourty are the top free agency priorities.
Rumored Wilfork retirement.
Extensions for Solder, Jones, Hightower.
Restructure for Mayo?
Vereen on a Faulk deal if possible.

Won't be a lot of space for a splashy free agency signing, so the Patriots will have to make their moves in the draft. The Revis deal is critical, because the Patriots are over the cap today and need to move under to keep anyone at this point.

Since they never sign veteran OL, the draft is a good place for interior line guys anyways. So, heavy on the lines in the draft.

Keep a war chest available for next years' Ayers and Siligas.

With you and ElCab.

Allow me one other point. As annoying as this whole Deflategate thing was and is -- and face it, it stripped almost all of the joy out of the SB pre-game experience -- it could turn into a galvanizing event for this franchise.

The natural state is decay. It is incredibly difficult to sustain success for 15 years. It would be natural to kick back a bit and maybe look to retirement.

My guess in the wake of this is that Kraft/BB/TB are pissed and determined to take these records and put them as far out of reach as they can. I think they are well positioned to do so, and if Brady can sustain himself, we may be looking at another 3 to 4 years.

Stitch01 · Feb 3, 2015

BB and Brady weren't retiring any time soon (3-4 years) regardless of deflategate barring random unforeseen health issues

Leather · Feb 3, 2015

Stitch01 said:
BB and Brady weren't retiring any time soon (3-4 years) regardless of deflategate barring random unforeseen health issues

Additionally, neither of them seem to have the slightest interest in taking a job in media, which is the typical quasi-retirement route for coaches and marquee players that are looking to dial it back a bit. There's no siren's song calling them out of the game with the prospect of making a few million a year sitting on their ass talking about themselves.

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