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National narratives tend to be overblown after a team loses and this one is probably just below the threshold of likely. First of all, these narratives tend to presume a situation can’t be fixed and you have to get rid of personnel rather than change an approach or get back on the same page. There’s a reason teams don’t usually make all the wild trades that hit the rumor mill throughout the year, as they recognize the value in patience and development. The public doesn’t see all of the minutiae that goes on every day, so the results tend to cloud the evaluation of the process.
Regardless, the presumption the Celtics absolutely have to get below the new super tax apron (aka the double apron) is incorrect. When you cross that threshold, you lose your taxpayer midlevel exception among other limitations, but the Celtics can live without those things this year. They don’t need to sign more players above the minimum since they currently have 11 rotation players with Danillo Gallinari returning and the ability to keep Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard. If they want to freshen up the roster, the trade route makes sense.
They already have a second-rounder and they don’t need to trade for more salary or use trade exceptions, so the super tax limitations affecting those things don’t matter. The concern is the looming penalty that your first-round pick seven years out gets frozen when you’re in the super tax, but that doesn’t kick in until the 2024-25 season. If they are shedding salary to avoid the repeater tax, then they likely don’t believe this team can win the title and would be better off doing a more significant rebuild around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
So being a super tax team doesn’t affect Boston that much if it’s keeping this roster together. Of course, the Celtics could trade for Damian Lillard and have Portland take on extra salary around Jaylen Brown, but we talked about why trading Brown for Lillard probably doesn’t make sense in our last mailbag. It’s notable his former teammate CJ McCollum said Thursday that if he were a betting man, this would be the last we’ve seen of Lillard in Portland.
But if Chris Paul ends up a free agent, that could change their thinking. The Celtics would love to have a savvy table setter who can guard multiple positions in short spurts. If they want to fully unlock Rob Williams’ ability and take pressure off the Jays to make all the reads, Paul, even at 38, is as good as it gets for a bench value. They also could give him a starting slot and keep his minutes down in the mid-20s so he can survive an entire season, which is a big reason Phoenix is working on a deal to move on, according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania.
Bringing in Paul on a cheap deal would make salary dumping a guard more palatable, particularly since he overlaps a lot of Brogdon’s offensive role. The Celtics got what they wanted from Brogdon this year, but the torn tendon in his arm took him out of the conference finals and he’ll be 31 next season while potentially coming off surgery. He has two years at $22.5 million per season left on his contract and hasn’t been fully healthy since he was a rookie.
If you can somehow nab Paul, Smart can remain your defensive floor general and White can continue to thrive in his wing role. White seems untouchable at this point with everything he’s done, while Smart has been the heart of the franchise and any uncertainty over his future is a matter of whether the team wants to try something new
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