The Celtics Offseason

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If anyone has good Memphis sources, it's Hollinger. Marcus was probably always going to be moved (which makes sense to me: his play had definitely slipped).
I don't buy this narrative at all because at the time of the deal it was Brogdon going out by all reports. I think the Clips backed out and Stevens pivoted to this trade - which they had clearly explored - but I don't think they were absolutely dealing Smart this off-season.

This is just my conjecture from afar and I absolutely could be wrong. In the end, it doesn't matter as its done.
 

lovegtm

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I don't buy this narrative at all because at the time of the deal it was Brogdon going out by all reports. I think the Clips backed out and Stevens pivoted to this trade - which they had clearly explored - but I don't think they were absolutely dealing Smart this off-season.

This is just my conjecture from afar and I absolutely could be wrong. In the end, it doesn't matter as its done.
It was definitely Brogdon going out; no one disputes that.

However, based on this reporting and how fast the deal was ready, I think Brad always intended to move Marcus once he knew Memphis would pay as much as they did.

We're not the only ones watching Marcus and seeing that he both lost a step and was causing some offensive stagnation on the biggest stages.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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It was definitely Brogdon going out; no one disputes that.

However, based on this reporting and how fast the deal was ready, I think Brad always intended to move Marcus once he knew Memphis would pay as much as they did.

We're not the only ones watching Marcus and seeing that he both lost a step and was causing some offensive stagnation on the biggest stages.
At this point its academic and we likely won't know how it all went down vs plan. My sense is that there are narratives at play but maybe that's completely wrong.

In the end, Stevens decided to remake the roster one way or another. With Jrue in the fold, all the other moves look great (injuries are a risk even with deep teams) and the starting squad is not just the best they've had during his tenure in Boston but the most balanced. Jrue is a huge upgrade over Brogdon - who was pretty disappointing in the playoffs for the Cs - and obviously fills some of the holes left by Smart's departure.
 

benhogan

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I'm keeping and eye on how the OKC rotation shakes out (and their record), if they either are struggling come the deadline, or they have faster than expected progress from some of their young bigs... Kenrich Williams might become expendable.
OKC is the one to keep an eye on... Kenrich money would fit the exception.

There was some Poku speculation recently on Karalis Locked-On pod

Total minutes seems misleading. In a close playoff game, I would expect 40 minutes for each of JT, JB, and Holiday, 35 for KP and DW, 20 for Horford and Hauser. That leaves 10 mins which can be filled with a few more minutes from the top 6, or some combination of PP/Kornet/Svi/Brisset/Stevens.
Agreed, total minutes is a sub-optimal way to look at it. Context matters. Playoff games always have 1-2 days off.

A 7-8 man rotation is all that is needed in the playoffs and the Celtics could go to a 6-7 man line-up in an elimination game if they wanted to.
 
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Jimbodandy

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OKC is the one to keep an eye on... Kenrich money would fit the exception.

There was some Poku speculation recently on Karalis Locked-On pod


Agreed, total minutes is a sub-optimal way to look at it. Context matters. Playoff games always have 1-2 days off.

A 7-8 man rotation is all that is needed in the playoffs and the Celtics could go to a 6-7 man line-up in an elimination game if they wanted to.
Yep and the "who's going to play those regular season minutes" question is honestly not that important to answer. Get used to a steady diet of Hauser, Pritchard, and Kornet. We will lose some games in the regular season because of this. That is not a bad thing. What's important is that the rotation is set for the playoffs. Pretty much everyone in this thread could cobble together a strawman minutes breakdown for the 82 in excel right now.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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OKC is the one to keep an eye on... Kenrich money would fit the exception.

There was some Poku speculation recently on Karalis Locked-On pod
Poku is on the wrong timeline and I don't see OK just taking more draft picks for him. I mean they already have more draft picks than they know what to do with.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yep and the "who's going to play those regular season minutes" question is honestly not that important to answer. Get used to a steady diet of Hauser, Pritchard, and Kornet. We will lose some games in the regular season because of this. That is not a bad thing. What's important is that the rotation is set for the playoffs. Pretty much everyone in this thread could cobble together a strawman minutes breakdown for the 82 in excel right now.
The bolded feels right and should be referred to when there are screeds against Mazzulla after dropping a game to Washington in early February.

Narrator: It will not be referred to.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I believe no aggregation comes in 2024 offseason. There have been some conflicting reports, but the most recent I've seen is that for 2023 the second apron means very little vs the first apron on trade operation. But it does count towards repeater penalties, which escalate as time goes on.
BTW, do we know whether the "no aggregation" applies to incoming players as well as outgoing players? I would suspect not (as it make it super hard for teams to reduce salaries, which I suppose is the goal) but I remember Bobby Marks mentioning this as a possibility early in the summer when only the Term Sheet was available.

Thanks in advance.
 

128

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The bolded feels right and should be referred to when there are screeds against Mazzulla after dropping a game to Washington in early February.

Narrator: It will not be referred to.
Had the same thought this morning. Coming off a postseason in which the Heat showed how little regular-season results can mean (and the C's generally struggled at home), we're still going to lose our shit over regular-season losses.
 

PedroKsBambino

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BTW, do we know whether the "no aggregation" applies to incoming players as well as outgoing players? I would suspect not (as it make it super hard for teams to reduce salaries, which I suppose is the goal) but I remember Bobby Marks mentioning this as a possibility early in the summer when only the Term Sheet was available.

Thanks in advance.
Just to check: The question is "Can I, as a second apron team, trade a $12 mil guy for two $6 mil guys" yes? I don't know the answer, just ensuring I have question right in case I run across it! Good question given speculation about Jaylen deals.

We all understand that, as a second apron team, we cannot trade two $6 mil guys for one $12 mil guy
 

mcpickl

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Just to check: The question is "Can I, as a second apron team, trade a $12 mil guy for two $6 mil guys" yes? I don't know the answer, just ensuring I have question right in case I run across it! Good question given speculation about Jaylen deals.

We all understand that, as a second apron team, we cannot trade two $6 mil guys for one $12 mil guy
yes, you can trade a 12M guy for two guys making 6M. You’re not aggregating there, the other team is. As long as you’re not adding salary, it’s legal.
 

PedroKsBambino

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yes, you can trade a 12M guy for two guys making 6M. You’re not aggregating there, the other team is. As long as you’re not adding salary, it’s legal.
That's certainly the case today, and I have not seen reported otherwise for next year other than the speculation early on noted. But do you have a cite for that, or just saying that's your understanding?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The Celtics by-far best run of last season was the early-going when TL was out and Kornet was getting his most consistent minutes of the season.

I have a feeling they will be more fine in the regular season than people think despite the depth downgrades.
 
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mcpickl

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That's certainly the case today, and I have not seen reported otherwise for next year other than the speculation early on noted. But do you have a cite for that, or just saying that's your understanding?
that is the case for next year.


i don’t know how I can cite if for you, because the new rule is about a team over the second apron not being able to aggregate salaries, but in the example you’ve used the team is not aggregating.

https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2023/06/2023-CBA-Summary.pdf

Here’s the summary from the league with the changes
 
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PedroKsBambino

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that is the case for next year.


i don’t know how I can cite if for you, because the new rule is about a team over the second apron not being able to aggregate salaries, but in the example you’ve used the team is not aggregating.
Yeah, just to be clear, the new rules actually include a lot more than just salary aggregation limitations...that's my point (no cash in deals, can't carry over TPEs, etc.) I hear your point that splitting a salary into two would likely not be aggregating, and that may be the answer. It had been speculated that the scenario WBCD raised may also be prevented and I hadn't seen specific info either way. Though, perhaps the absence of anything suggesting that is restricted is sufficient?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah, just to be clear, the new rules actually include a lot more than just salary aggregation limitations...that's my point (no cash in deals, can't carry over TPEs, etc.) I hear your point that splitting a salary into two would likely not be aggregating, and that may be the answer. It had been speculated that the scenario WBCD raised may also be prevented and I hadn't seen specific info either way. Though, perhaps the absence of anything suggesting that is restricted is sufficient?
So I decided to look as the CBA is readily available: https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2023/06/2023-NBA-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement.pdf.

From a brief read of Section 6(j) and the section on apron restrictions, that talks about traded salaries exceptions, aggregation refers to taking two or more players and trading for a higher salary player, so McPickl is correct and early speculation was incorrect. JB could be broken up into smaller contracts.
 

NomarsFool

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This highlights an interesting point. Mazzulla has a clear mandate - the team is going all in for banner 18.

That objective makes developing players trickier but not impossible. But we should acknowledge that its a potential factor before we start complaining about usage.
Well, if I was PoBOBS I would tell CJM that if anyone in his top 7 is injured when the playoffs start he’s fired. I’m exaggerating, of course, but they should be treating their starting 5 with kid gloves all season.
 

DGreenwood

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So I decided to look as the CBA is readily available: https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2023/06/2023-NBA-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement.pdf.

From a brief read of Section 6(j) and the section on apron restrictions, that talks about traded salaries exceptions, aggregation refers to taking two or more players and trading for a higher salary player, so McPickl is correct and early speculation was incorrect. JB could be broken up into smaller contracts.
Hollinger confirms in The Athletic today:
Hollinger: the trade rules almost incentivize these teams to have at least one whale salary, because you can aggregate down but not up. In other words, trading Lillard’s monstrous salary in two years for two smaller ones is still possible if you’re the Bucks, but the same trade won’t be allowed in the opposite direction.
 

lovegtm

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This makes my brain hurt more. So a team can aggregate down, but not up - which teams -are- allowed to aggregate up?
Everyone who's under the second apron. In normal NBA trades, you can aggregate in any manner you want. Not being able to aggregate up is a new thing for second apron teams.
 

Cellar-Door

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This makes my brain hurt more. So a team can aggregate down, but not up - which teams -are- allowed to aggregate up?
It's quite simple....
If you are over the 2nd apron you can't combine small deals into larger ones.
If you are under you can combine any way you want.
 

PedroKsBambino

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It's quite simple....
If you are over the 2nd apron you can't combine small deals into larger ones.
If you are under you can combine any way you want.
....and if you are over, you can still split a larger one into smaller ones. Which is useful for the Celtics going forward.
 

lexrageorge

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Aggregation of salaries makes a lot of sense in a salary capped league. Normally, who really cares if a team has 2 players making $15M each or one making $30M; letting teams trade one the former for the latter, and vice versa, is therefore allowed in most cases.

The intention of the second apron is to prevent teams above the apron from easily acquiring a high-salaried player. So, yes, teams can spend as much over the soft cap as they want, but they will find it more difficult to build a super team if they do so.

Allowing teams above the apron to swap out the higher salary for multiple lower-priced players is a way to allow big money teams (aka those above the apron) to trade superstars, and thereby further promote parity. It was also a compromise to allow the big market teams to have a way to get below the apron; it's then easier for the team to trade the lower-priced players for draft picks or similar to get below the apron.

Not sure the 2nd apron thing was necessary, to be honest. But the CBA is the result of the collaboration of multiple stakeholders, and has served the league and its players and owners well over the decades.
 

slamminsammya

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it's supposed to be one of several measures to disincentive going over the second apron but if you know you are already gonna be over the no combining contracts thing kind of incentivizes being as top heavy as possible - nothing but huge contracts and then minimums.
 

Eddie Jurak

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This offseason has featured the biggest moves Stevens has made and it has come at the most critical point in the progression of the franchise.

Dealing with the Brown extension while also deciding that in order to taken the next step the team needed a major reshaping is not trivial. Finding the deals, reshaping the team in a way that Brown and Tatum could appreciate even as the longest tenured Celtic is dealt, restocking picks at the draft, being opportunistic when Holliday came available, etc. Not easy to do all of that at the same time while keeping the stars happy.
 

NomarsFool

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If the Celtics don’t go to the ECF, I think there is definitely a chance BS catches some blame. If coaching is perceived as an issue, he hired the staff. If KP has an injury issue, he’s the one who took a chance on him (which I think was a good decision, don’t get me wrong). Lastly, there’s always a chance that this super starting 5 doesn’t gel somehow and ends up being lesser than the sum of its parts. If that happens, I would think there’s a good chance ownership holds him accountable for that.
 

tims4wins

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If the Celtics don’t go to the ECF, I think there is definitely a chance BS catches some blame. If coaching is perceived as an issue, he hired the staff. If KP has an injury issue, he’s the one who took a chance on him (which I think was a good decision, don’t get me wrong). Lastly, there’s always a chance that this super starting 5 doesn’t gel somehow and ends up being lesser than the sum of its parts. If that happens, I would think there’s a good chance ownership holds him accountable for that.
Ehh. They almost won in 2021; added a great piece in Brogdon; had the Ime situation; almost got back to the Finals again anyway; and only now just took a risk after not winning it all with the same core for the last two years. I think he would have caught more flak if they just ran it back and didn’t make the Finals again but YMMV.
 

ManicCompression

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If the Celtics don’t go to the ECF, I think there is definitely a chance BS catches some blame. If coaching is perceived as an issue, he hired the staff. If KP has an injury issue, he’s the one who took a chance on him (which I think was a good decision, don’t get me wrong). Lastly, there’s always a chance that this super starting 5 doesn’t gel somehow and ends up being lesser than the sum of its parts. If that happens, I would think there’s a good chance ownership holds him accountable for that.
If he didn't make any of these moves, he would also catch blame for sitting on his hands while the upper echelon of the league improved themselves. When you're at this level, you have to take risks or you become Ernie Grunfeld. I think he's squeezed the most out of all of the transactions he's done and there wasn't a better realistic pathway for this team.

I think we need to stop fixating on KP being injured. We simply swapped TL's injury risk for his; acquiring KP didn't eat into our depth at C any further. And if I had to take odds on who will play more in this year's playoffs, it would be KP. Rob hasn't been able to stay healthy for more than 30 games at a time, if that, which is equal parts sad and frustrating.

This team will go as far as Tatum and Brown, which makes me much more concerned about this (I'm joking... kinda).https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2023/10/4/23903345/jaylen-brown-left-handed-dribble-training-camp-video-celtics
 

128

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If he didn't make any of these moves, he would also catch blame for sitting on his hands while the upper echelon of the league improved themselves. When you're at this level, you have to take risks or you become Ernie Grunfeld. I think he's squeezed the most out of all of the transactions he's done and there wasn't a better realistic pathway for this team.

I think we need to stop fixating on KP being injured. We simply swapped TL's injury risk for his; acquiring KP didn't eat into our depth at C any further. And if I had to take odds on who will play more in this year's playoffs, it would be KP. Rob hasn't been able to stay healthy for more than 30 games at a time, if that, which is equal parts sad and frustrating.

This team will go as far as Tatum and Brown, which makes me much more concerned about this (I'm joking... kinda).https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2023/10/4/23903345/jaylen-brown-left-handed-dribble-training-camp-video-celtics
As others have asked: Why the hell would the Celtics post that?
 

lovegtm

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If he didn't make any of these moves, he would also catch blame for sitting on his hands while the upper echelon of the league improved themselves. When you're at this level, you have to take risks or you become Ernie Grunfeld. I think he's squeezed the most out of all of the transactions he's done and there wasn't a better realistic pathway for this team.

I think we need to stop fixating on KP being injured. We simply swapped TL's injury risk for his; acquiring KP didn't eat into our depth at C any further. And if I had to take odds on who will play more in this year's playoffs, it would be KP. Rob hasn't been able to stay healthy for more than 30 games at a time, if that, which is equal parts sad and frustrating.

This team will go as far as Tatum and Brown, which makes me much more concerned about this (I'm joking... kinda).https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2023/10/4/23903345/jaylen-brown-left-handed-dribble-training-camp-video-celtics
Brad got the team further than it had been in more than a decade. He is a Steph Curry heater and a Tatum ankle away from 2 straight Finals appearances and 1-2 titles.

He then went and aggressively upgraded without sacrificing future flexibility. I seriously doubt that Wyc feels anything other than very fortunate that Brad Stevens is his GM.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Just listened to the CJM pod with Reddick and it makes me feel a LOT better about Coach Joe. Completely different guy - by his own admission - than who we saw before and after games last year.

Also, the fact that he tried to recruit JJ during 18 holes and him talking about how he knew JJ wasn’t going to say yes is the kind of behind-the-scenes stuff that you really don’t see much in normal media. Pretty cool.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Brad got the team further than it had been in more than a decade. He is a Steph Curry heater and a Tatum ankle away from 2 straight Finals appearances and 1-2 titles.

He then went and aggressively upgraded without sacrificing future flexibility. I seriously doubt that Wyc feels anything other than very fortunate that Brad Stevens is his GM.
This is true but at some point he also needs to win it. Ainge's rebuild that began in 2013 with the Brooklyn trade was excellent, but as soon as the progress stagnated, he was ushered out. I think Stevens is in a similar place - but with higher pressure because Tatum and Brown are in their primes.

What's interesting is that Stevens has no hesitancy whatsoever to make big deals and moves.
 

lovegtm

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This is true but at some point he also needs to win it. Ainge's rebuild that began in 2013 with the Brooklyn trade was excellent, but as soon as the progress stagnated, he was ushered out. I think Stevens is in a similar place - but with higher pressure because Tatum and Brown are in their primes.

What's interesting is that Stevens has no hesitancy whatsoever to make big deals and moves.
His willingness to go all-in shows that he gets it. I expect him to upgrade further a bit this year, and then his next big test will be how he handles the coming CapPocalypse in 2025 or so.
 

benhogan

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What's interesting is that Stevens has no hesitancy whatsoever to make big deals and moves.
Fact. Brad wasn't a week into the job when he punted Kemba for Horford. Upgraded all starting positions & bench in the last 2 yrs.

Wyc said in the Jrue presser that he sees a 6yr Championship window, as the JAYs prime commences.

36-36 1st round playoff exit

POBOBS starts.
51-31 Finals
57-25 ECF

No doubt the pressure is there to win, but Brad's rope has to be pretty long.
 

mcpickl

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Either that or the higher salary makes him easier to package in a trade next year. They've basically shipped out all their mid-tier salaries. Al and White are their only other contracts >$3mn and <$30mn.
I'd agree if not for the years.

An additional four years is a lot for matching salary going out.