The Celtics Offseason
- Thread starter kazuneko
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Best starting 5 in the NBA? Seems like it to me.
Al, Kornet, some other serviceable big will have to hold down the 5.
I get the sense we didn't see KP and TImelord as a likely crunch time pairing. With that in mind, Jrue is going to upgrade the end of games.
Al, Kornet, some other serviceable big will have to hold down the 5.
I get the sense we didn't see KP and TImelord as a likely crunch time pairing. With that in mind, Jrue is going to upgrade the end of games.
Smart, Grant Williams, Rob Williams, Malcolm Brogdon out.
KP, Holliday in.
Pretty big shakeup this offseason.
KP, Holliday in.
Pretty big shakeup this offseason.
As much as the last minute inclusion of Smart in the Porzingis trade felt a bit like the Cs getting caught flat footed (my opinion - I know most here felt the Cs won that deal by a lot) its now pretty clear that the organization was not satisfied with almost so they had to move key parts for new ones.
It may not work but its what good teams do when they have a singular goal in mind.
Kinda absurd to think White is their fifth best player when he spent most of the last playoffs as the de facto number 2…
There was no world in which White (13/3/2) was better in the playoffs than Jaylen Brown (23/6/3). More efficient shooting and a miraculous game winner just can't touch the massive difference in counting stats.
This offseason was about trading quantity (4 solid role players who could handle playoff minutes) for quality (2 all-star level talents that can be on the floor at the end of playoff games). Without thinking about it too hard, I believe that the age concerns with Jrue and the health issues with KP aren't any greater than the age/injury problems with Smart/Brogdon/TL, so I'm comfortable calling that a wash, though obviously weaker depth means that player absences hurt more now. I don't know if it happens before the start of the season, but we now have a clear need (a 3rd big that can be trusted in the playoffs) and a very tight window. Very excited for the start of the year.
They have the guys to cover for him on D, if he works hard at the point of attack.
I'm bullish on his shooting and would like to see more of him as the small SG tbh.
Agree on your first point. And I'm fine with him getting lots of minutes in the 82 game regular season. I'm guessing he won't see a lot of time in the playoffs but it's a long season and injuries could change the complexion of roster just like any other NBA team. Fingers crossed that he is not one of the first players off the bench in the postseason.
If he can get open looks from three he should be an effective depth piece.
We've already seen that he can space from very deep, and that his shooting translates in the playoffs, so the D is the bigger thing for me.
I don’t think this means Pritchard is going to play a lot of minutes. Jrue and White may start and finish games together but those two will be staggered a lot.
For me it comes down to the playoff rotations. One of those 4 was on the court in the best line-ups.
Now KP, Tatum, Brown, Holliday and White close out series.
Stay healthy and this is crazy town.
Loved Smart and Timelord, but I’m sick of rooting for potential, it’s time to see with this core not dream about it.
This core needed a shakeup IMO to get over the top, and that’s here. The GM pushed in the chips, now it’s up to the coaches to maximize the potential.
The 25th can’t get here soon enough.
I don't see this changing Pritchard's minutes all that much. Brogdon to Holiday meant 6 fewer MPG last year, but I gotta imagine all efforts will be taken to keep the top 6 healthy in the regular season, and to see who on the bench can contribute in the playoffs. Pritchard will get ample opportunity to show that he is deserving of a spot.
I think this offense makes clear what the plan is moving forward: Build around the Jays (signing both to super max deals) and everyone else is replaceable. It's not too difficult to see a scenario in which the current team just doesn't work - Holiday declines from an all-star to a solid role player (basically Brogdon, but more defense focused), Horford loses a step and becomes unplayable in the playoffs, KP can't stay healthy, etc. They have a 2 year window for the current team, but they can regroup a few years from now with Tatum/Brown still in their 20s. Tatum/Brown are not the best on court combination only because they are fairly similar players (making the standard pick and roll ineffective), but their strength as a duo is in that it allows Brad to put whatever pieces he wants around them, and it can work. We aren't building around a big man with limited range or a small guard with defensive issues, literally any players in the league can plug and play effectively next to the Jays. That's their strength, and good to see Brad is playing into it.
Another option is to deal Jaylen in a Donovan Mitchell type deal for good picks and 1-2 good young players. Then you can roll with that team, and package the picks with whomever of KP/Jrue declines first.
They have a lot of paths forward, given the asset situation.
Agree in general as well. Jrue is better than Brogdon, so in general less guard minutes available for PP.
On the other hand, as good as the starting 5 is, no one is a true elite 3 PT threat (though all are plenty solid enough).
Might give some extra minutes to PP and Hauser depending on matchups and how the D is playing.
If there’s any position to be fragile at, this is the right one. You can always find bodies, especially come buyout season.
Jrue is better than Brogdon, but they replaced two guards (Smart, Brogdon) with one (Jrue).
I would be shocked if PP doesn't play a lot more, and the days of DNP-CDs are probably behind him for now.
Nothing really changed much here.
The Celtics were so close to the second apron, that using the MLE would've put them over so it was unusable unless they cut salary elsewhere.
The buyout rule applies starting at the first apron, so that avenue was already closed.
Reggie Bullock would be an excellent signing for this team. Good size on the wing, can play decent defense over multiple positions, good three point shooter, etc.
Just got waived so likely to sign on for the minimum somewhere?
Just got waived so likely to sign on for the minimum somewhere?
Seems like Celtics (and Bucks) are willing to go over second apron and just deciding acquiring the talent is more important than the restrictions, doesn't it? I believe several more teams will make that choice before trade deadline this year, but it does require being willing to pay the tax. Is Miami willing to?
The big penalty is not being able to aggregate salaries, so in some ways, that even incentivizes collecting some big salaries now.
There is also the pick freezing/end of the 1st round, but that is less relevant for a team with Tatum, at least if it only happens with 1-2 picks.
I hadn't paid attention to the buyout rule before. This seems to massively downgrade the value of the buyout market (which wasn't great to begin with, but still). I'd assume anyone worth anything is making more than the non-taxpayer MLE at the start of the season.
Last year's playoff Celtics played 20 minutes and had 8 guys who played more than 200 minutes, led by Tatum (799) and Brown (751). Four of those guys are gone: Smart (679, #3), Brogdon (474, #6), Rob (417, #7), Grant (265, #8).
Players outside of the top 8 played only 230 minutes total all playoffs, led by Hauser's 104.
If Tatum and Brown maintain their minutes, Holliday takes Smart's minutes. Porzingis takes Horford's minutes and Horford takes Rob's. That leaves them needing to replace Brogdon (474), Grant (265), and some amount of the bench scrubs (230). Some of that could be via White getting more minutes - he averaged under 30. But that is still a lot of minutes to fill with some uncertain characters.
Players outside of the top 8 played only 230 minutes total all playoffs, led by Hauser's 104.
If Tatum and Brown maintain their minutes, Holliday takes Smart's minutes. Porzingis takes Horford's minutes and Horford takes Rob's. That leaves them needing to replace Brogdon (474), Grant (265), and some amount of the bench scrubs (230). Some of that could be via White getting more minutes - he averaged under 30. But that is still a lot of minutes to fill with some uncertain characters.
I wonder if there are any useful guys who are out of the league but could be enticed back - the PJ Brown model. That's where the Celtics would have to look instead of buyouts.
Total minutes seems misleading. In a close playoff game, I would expect 40 minutes for each of JT, JB, and Holiday, 35 for KP and DW, 20 for Horford and Hauser. That leaves 10 mins which can be filled with a few more minutes from the top 6, or some combination of PP/Kornet/Svi/Brisset/Stevens.
I'm keeping and eye on how the OKC rotation shakes out (and their record), if they either are struggling come the deadline, or they have faster than expected progress from some of their young bigs... Kenrich Williams might become expendable.
I agree, there is still work to do - which could be guys like Bullock or others who get cut (Spurs/OKC?), development from Brissett, etc., or a deal likely using Grant's TPE. Less likely, imo, is vet buyout market but still possible. They also may see PP filling some of those minutes, which isn't at all crazy, and Kornet playing more minutes (as much as 'when Horford/Porzingis are sitting' as per-game)
I am guessing they have some faith in the internal development and want to try to "Miami" it by getting role players on the cheap who you develop, but that is far from a certain path.
My concern on internal development would be Mazzulla. Not sure we have seen anything from him to suggest he would be on board with that.
Interesting to me from Weiss' piece today: the Celtics are trying to extend Pritchard.
https://theathletic.com/4916611/2023/10/01/jrue-holiday-celtics-malcolm-brogdon/
https://theathletic.com/4916611/2023/10/01/jrue-holiday-celtics-malcolm-brogdon/
Maybe I'm higher on him than most, but I'd like him with this roster long-term at a lowish number.
The sample size is surely very limited. His use of Hauser last year is the best evidence, limited as that may be, even over more veteran Grant
He was also coaching for his professional life, with a GM who, while he likes Mazzulla, makes Ainge look warm and cuddly.
Wonder if WCJ might be the target with the Grant TPE this season, adding some salary match and a couple firsts.
This highlights an interesting point. Mazzulla has a clear mandate - the team is going all in for banner 18.
That objective makes developing players trickier but not impossible. But we should acknowledge that its a potential factor before we start complaining about usage.
Or not but it feels more good faith to note that Mazzulla is expected to earn an A this year with no curve. As such, if he starts going to his binkies when other teams would normally give kids/others run we need to understand.
This is year is likely make or break for Mazzulla as coach of the Celtics.
It makes sense, to me at least. I don’t think trading “the heart” of your team is a spur of the moment decision you make within a few hours.
No, you can't aggregate using the TPE---it's a player at that amount or less only.
If anyone has good Memphis sources, it's Hollinger. Marcus was probably always going to be moved (which makes sense to me: his play had definitely slipped).