Seems so. Most external evaluations of TL are probably tained by his 2021-2022 season (particularly the defense), which he may never reach again. But if I was Portland I don't know why I'd be interested in this trade. I think I'd rather keep Jrue. The only reason I'd move him is to get some young, valuable assets. That's why I think both GS and TOR have the advantage. Or maybe OKC as a dark horse.
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That'd be the smart thing for them to do. Go all in on the Curry era, and cut the cord on Chris Paul (he doesn't make any sense for the Warriors) now before it gets annoying.
If I had to guess....
I think Brad is going to kick the tires on Jrue, with the idea that if he can flip Brogdon and Al or TL (and a pick or two) for Jrue and some kind of big, preferrably on a rookie deal, that makes a better all-around rotation.
I think it's mostly, like with Dame, due dilligence and it never gets anywhere.
I think Brad is going to kick the tires on Jrue, with the idea that if he can flip Brogdon and Al or TL (and a pick or two) for Jrue and some kind of big, preferrably on a rookie deal, that makes a better all-around rotation.
I think it's mostly, like with Dame, due dilligence and it never gets anywhere.
Count me as mostly unconcerned about Jrue's playoff shooting. Maybe its more than small sample size at this point, but I don't buy that's his true playoff talent shooting level.
I think he would be fine as a playoff shooter going forward, and bring a lot to the table. As a 4th or 5th option on the team, he would be a ridiculous luxury to have.
I would hate to give up on Timelord, but honestly the team has a better idea what to expect from him going forward than we do. If he gets traded, I doubt the guy from 2 years ago is coming back consistently again.
I think he would be fine as a playoff shooter going forward, and bring a lot to the table. As a 4th or 5th option on the team, he would be a ridiculous luxury to have.
I would hate to give up on Timelord, but honestly the team has a better idea what to expect from him going forward than we do. If he gets traded, I doubt the guy from 2 years ago is coming back consistently again.
It's annoying how well this could work out for them
Poole and spare parts into Jrue would be a big win.
Do you think TL could pass a physical at this point knowing what we know about his knees?
I believe that what TL had was a meniscus tear. That is not terribly concerning in and of itself. Sometimes I think half the NBA has a meniscus tear. Hell, I have a meniscus tear. It is unlikely to be an issue.
This is why the phrase "pass a physical" is sort of misleading. A huge percentage of these guys have some degree of arthritis if you want to look, and there is no specific binary objective point at which someone passes or fails these things. It's more of a way to check and make sure things aren't way worse or different than expected.
They would probably want to look at his most recent imaging, and maybe even force him to get another MRI. If it was way worse than they thought, maybe they would "fail him". But they probably know it's not going to look pristine and they also know a chunk of his meniscus is gone.
So long story short, I don't know. My guess is that he would "pass" it as long as they don't see anything catastrophically wrong. But that doesn't mean his knee looks great.
It's an issue because when you tear your meniscus and they surgically take a chunk of it out, you often will wear down the cartilage more quickly. Also, at the time of the initial injury you often knock some cartilage off too.
Add that general point to Rob's slow recovery, persistent pain/swelling, and another "clean up" procedure....and you almost certainly know he has cartilage damage/arthritis to some degree. Just a question of how bad.
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I really doubt they are interested in Poole - he's an inferior version of Herro (granted we're talking about a different guy going out now, too). Moody is at least a useful young player, and Kuminga still has upside---though I'd guess his profile is one teams are going to vary a lot on.
Who is it that Portland would flip Paul off to in a deal for Jrue - tough for me to find the salary match (though Clips could do a crap platter of Covington, Batum, and Morris plus picks that maybe works?)
Yeah, I think he was trying to say in a couple steps Poole into Jrue---which is a massive upgrade!
Yeah I just meant if they got Jrue it would be complete luck... not part of some master plan from the start.
CP3 would be salary matching and likely a buyout candidate if he goes to Portland, I doubt they could trade him for much.
Paul isnt bad (yet) but he's old, always injured, and declining fast. He only got his current contract picked up because it was needed for the Beal trade.
No one really wants him, it's night and day difference between him and Jrue.
How many times would a surly, 6th man CP3 and Dray get into it on the court? with Curry having to play mediator. They are desperate to look clever after Bob's exit.
PDX could probably turn CP3 into Kyle Lowry's carcass + a lottery-protected First
They’d need to cut players though. We only have $2 million in cushion against the second apron. If we cross, we cannot aggregate. So any trade cannot involve the Celtics taking on more than $2 million in additional salary. Kornet, Svi, or Banton could be cut at minimal cost to create room. Svi and Banton each have $200k guarantees. I believe the Celtics could make the money work by cutting both of Svi or Banton and trading Kornet along with Pritchard, Hauser, and Walsh. I don’t think there is any other way to make it work after looking at this more closely.
I don’t think the above is practical. I don’t think aggregating hard caps us, so I think we could subsequently replace some of the lost depth via FA signings (like replacing Pritchard with Payne), but the roster would be incredibly shallow. We’d have Brissett and Stevens as the 8/9 options and then nothing except FA scraps, almost no ability to trade in season, and a huge tax fit to fill out the roster. It is far more likely Boston is offering Horford or Timelord. They‘d still need to add Kornet or Pritchard. The latter is more likely as we could use the cap space freed up to guarantee Lamar Stevens or acquire someone like Payne without crossing the second apron. That would leave us with reasonable depth and a meaningful upgrade on core talent. We’d have six closing lineup capable players still, so could reasonably weather 1 injury to anyone except Tatum and still have a formidable roster. It makes a lot more sense than emptying the roster for a bigger upgrade to the front 7 but literally no depth.
Note: odds obviously are another team offers more and this is irrelevant.
I believe no aggregation comes in 2024 offseason. There have been some conflicting reports, but the most recent I've seen is that for 2023 the second apron means very little vs the first apron on trade operation. But it does count towards repeater penalties, which escalate as time goes on.
If that’s true and the Celtics are willing to go into the second apron, there may be more realistic ways to complete a trade without Horford or Timelord. It’s hard to know if the Celtics are willing to cross over into the second apron, but my guess is that if the upgrade is big enough they probably would. Brogdon to Jrue is a very significant upgrade. Brogdon and Horford/Timelord to Jrue is much less of one.
I feel like there’s a path to a three team trade with the Clips, Blazers, and Celtics.
View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1707748840525164940?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1707748840525164940?s=20
Would have to be a 3rd team because I don't see what we could possibly want off of the Clippers' roster. But agree that you can kind of see the outline of a deal where Brogdon goes to LA, Jrue comes to Boston, and filler/draft assets go to Portland, likely from both LAC and BOS.
I mean, what we want is Jrue, Por wants the draft asset LAC would give up.
If you're thinking they would add a 4th team to backfill the big they send out... Possible, but would probably make the most sense just to do 3 teams then do a separate trade if you want to backfill bigs.
Lowe said that the Clippers are getting hesitant to give up future unprotecteds or draft capital in general, given the uncertainty of Kawhi and PG's health. Brogdon on 2 years of relative cost control makes a lot more sense for them than one of Jrue, in that case.
Honestly, you are much smarter than me on the rules involved in NBA trades but you also have your finger on the pulse of NBA twitter...
What do you think that trade would look like and what would the Celtics be giving up?
I don’t know about all that lol, but my thoughts. At first, I thought the most likely way would have to be Brogdon/Rob, which tbh, I would do if it came down to it. A multi team trade is the key to the Brogdon/pupu platter package. Brad likely wants the 6 for 1, with a re-signed Blake. Would probably have to load it with picks, and Wyc would have to pay up, but I mean the team would be fucking ridiculous.
With the Clippers involved, the 6 for 1 is a lot more feasible IMO, as opposed to if the Celtics and Blazers were negotiating a two team trade.
Interesting because this was my read on it as well...
If they can do Brogdon, the Bench 5 and some picks, then you HAVE to make that trade.
Brogdon, Pritchard, Hauser, Kornet, 2 bench dudes, and Smart for Porzingis and Holiday? My god, that would be masterful
Holiday
Jaylen
Tatum
KP
Rob
White
Al
Brissett
Stevens
Svi
The top end talent is ridiculously elite, and you have two starter quality players coming off the bench.
The reason I’d be willing to do Brogdon/Rob (only if it came down to it), is that you could easily slide Tatum to the 4, and between him, Brissett, and Stevens, there’s your minutes at the 4. A center rotation of KP/Al/Kornet is pretty damn good, IMO. The rotation if you do that package is still amazing.
White
Holiday
Jaylen
Tatum
Porzingis
Al
Pritchard
Hauser
Brissett
Stevens
Kornet
Svi
Walsh
Sorry, I just meant I don't see a direct 2 team trade with LAC happening for Brogdon so a 3rd team (e.g., Portland) would be needed.
I gotta think you have some issues with White if Holiday comes in here and sends him to the Bench. He just spent all offseason as the "starting point guard." If Brogdon is too pissy to show up for early camp because of a trade rumor, what does all this do to White?
I think having to give up Brogdon/Rob is too much. I think they're already a little thin with big men, as it seems unlikely they all stay healthy given age and history, and while I very much like Kornet as the next Late Late Show host, I don't think I want to head into the playoffs with him as the third big, with only KP and an aged Al in front of him. Especially if you're only getting a year of Holiday and considering the cost to extend him and how top heavy the Cs already are.
@JakeRae had some great info above, and I think he’s correct regarding the hard cap above the second apron this year. That would require waiving the recently signed Barton and Svi, the latter whom I like quite a bit, but if the $200k guarantee numbers are accurate, then this is the only way to get the trade to work without including Al or TL. A three teamer with the Clippers and Blazers makes a lot of sense. I’m seeing that the below should work
Celtics:
Waive Barton
Waive Svi
Jrue
Clippers:
Brogdon
Blazers:
Clippers first or swap
Celtics first(s) or swap
Pritchard
Kornet
Walsh or Hauser
Batum
Covington
You’d be able to keep one of Hauser or Walsh in this scenario, and then you can sign minimums (Payne/Biyombo/Griffin) to fill out the rest of the roster since you’re now above the second apron. I don’t believe we can sign and trade Griffin in conjunction with other players unless you wait until 12/15, but I’m sure someone can correct me if I’m wrong.
I think this is a push your chips into the middle of the table deal. A lot of flexibility with White/Jrue on the court, and next year you can extend Jrue at lower dollars or possibly sign-and-trade him if he doesn’t opt-in. He’s going to want to destroy Dame in every matchup and they’re now our biggest competition in the East. I get the poor offensive numbers in the playoffs, but he’d be the 4th option this team.
Celtics:
Waive Barton
Waive Svi
Jrue
Clippers:
Brogdon
Blazers:
Clippers first or swap
Celtics first(s) or swap
Pritchard
Kornet
Walsh or Hauser
Batum
Covington
You’d be able to keep one of Hauser or Walsh in this scenario, and then you can sign minimums (Payne/Biyombo/Griffin) to fill out the rest of the roster since you’re now above the second apron. I don’t believe we can sign and trade Griffin in conjunction with other players unless you wait until 12/15, but I’m sure someone can correct me if I’m wrong.
I think this is a push your chips into the middle of the table deal. A lot of flexibility with White/Jrue on the court, and next year you can extend Jrue at lower dollars or possibly sign-and-trade him if he doesn’t opt-in. He’s going to want to destroy Dame in every matchup and they’re now our biggest competition in the East. I get the poor offensive numbers in the playoffs, but he’d be the 4th option this team.
Celtics are not sending out enough salary here.
And the only thing that triggers a hard cap at the second apron this season is using the taxpayer MLE.
No need to be waiving guys.
Yeah, this is decidedly not correct.
Pritchard Kornet Hauser Brogdon is $30,878,478 short of what you need. However you can sign and trade Blake as part of the deal, so doable, though some of those guys have to go to LAC (or elsewhere, because POR is not cutting 5-6 guys.
The Celtics aren't hard capped, and nothing in the deal would hard cap them (you're hardcapped if you use the MLE, receive a player who is S&T, use the bi-annual exception).
I’ll try to show some work here… so the Athletic has a pretty comprehensive article on the new CBA, and I’m using Fanspro trade machine which I think is the best out there that I’ve seen (links below).
First apron is at ~$173mm. Are they able to duck under that by waiving Barton/Svi and other non-guaranteed so they can match at 125%? If not, and they’re above the first apron, matching is at 110%, so you’d be correct about needing to include more salary. I just ran the numbers in excel, and it looks like they still might be around 175mm…
In the new CBA, I’m reading that you’re hard capped once you go over 2nd apron so salary matching is 1:1. If you’ve seen something contrary to that, let me know, as I’d be curious to read about it. Also agree on the 5:1 to the Blazers being a bit much but they can always be re-routed.
https://theathletic.com/4607105/2023/06/28/nba-cba-new-rules/?amp=1
https://fanspo.com/nba/trade-machine
The Celtics are 5M+ over the second apron, in your trade scenario you'd have them adding another 6M in salary. You'd have to chop out 11M to get under the first apron to match at 125%.
The salary matching at 1:1 starts next season, and that kicks in if you go over the first apron.
@mcpickl covered it.
Part of the problem is fanspo screwed up their trade machine and never fixed it so it doesn't have the new rules correct. Spotrac "manage team" might be the best one right now, but it is still not great as it can't handle S&T as a 3 way deal or guaranteeing a non-guaranteed deal (where fanspo just assumes if you try to trade a guy you're guaranteeing him.)
Part of the problem is fanspo screwed up their trade machine and never fixed it so it doesn't have the new rules correct. Spotrac "manage team" might be the best one right now, but it is still not great as it can't handle S&T as a 3 way deal or guaranteeing a non-guaranteed deal (where fanspo just assumes if you try to trade a guy you're guaranteeing him.)
Just conjecture of course but if someone is "telling" Himmelsbach something, its likely to convey a message. And that message appears to be either (a) "Dear Cs fans, the Jrue market is too rich for us" or (b) "Dear Cs fans and Joe Cronin, the Jrue market is too rich for us" .
Regardless, the net effect is the same. Jrue unlikely.
Regardless, the net effect is the same. Jrue unlikely.
Hmm, I don't want to get hopes up, but this could just as well be the Blazers trying to get teams to pony up. If LAC wasn't willing to give late 2020 unprotecteds, the possible Holiday offers drop off quite steeply from there. For example, if you apply a similar "they're always at least good" discount to future Heat and Celtics picks, it's pretty easy for Boston to top most Miami offers. You can run through the other teams that make sense for Jrue and it plays out similarly: not enough picks, not good enough picks, or wrong timeline/doubt they can extend him.
It's possible that the bidding wasn't as intense as Portland anticipated, given Jrue's age and contract status. If there were multiple great offers on the table, no one would care about a "significant gap" to the Celtics offer.
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Not that it’s some great indicator, but the Celtics odds of trading for Jrue on DK just jumped way ahead of the Sixers and Clippers.
Celtics +230
Sixers +600
Clippers +600
Celtics +230
Sixers +600
Clippers +600
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Probably reflects information/guessing that the Clippers aren't getting involved.
The Celtics can top Sixers offers fairly easily, especially if the Clips still want Brogdon, but even without that.
Shams doesn't mention Rob. Doubt its possible without, but having cake and eating it too would be keeping Rob... Fingers crossed
Who do we add to bolster the front court? Biyombo? I'm super queasy about the fragility of the C/PF position. Ask for Moses Brown again? Not many good options