The Bullpen

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
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One area that has generally been very good for the Sox has been the bullpen.  Here are the top 5 guys in the pen:
 
Uehara:  19.2 ip, 0.92 era, 0.92 whip, 13.3 k/9
Badenhop:  29.2 ip, 2.12 era, 1.38 whip, 4.6 k/9, been incredible since his first four appearances
Capuano: 27.0 ip, 2.00 era, 1.11 whip, 8.3 k/9
Miller:  23.0 ip, 2.74 era, 1.04 whip, 13.7 k/9
Tazawa:  22.1 ip, 2.42 era, 1.16 whip, 8.1 k/9
 
That's an incredible job by those five guys.  The rest of the pen is more of a struggle:
 
Breslow:  16.1 ip, 5.51 era, 1.84 whip, 7.2 k/9 (though before his meltdown on Sunday his #'s were:  2.87 era, 1.53 whip, 7.5 k/9)
Mujica:  19.0 ip, 6.63 era, 1.53 whip, 5.7 k/9
 
I expect both of these guys to be better.  They have a 7-10 record, which is worse than their actual performance should indicate.  Ironically, both Breslow and Mujica are 2-1, despite being the two worst regular relievers.  The rest of the pen is 5-9.  
 
Despite Breslow and Mujica, the Sox' pen has the 7th best ERA in MLB, at 2.94.  And they have the 2nd highest save percentage at 80.0%.  
 
So they're really doing a great job, for the most part.  I like having three lefties and four righties.  Well, actually, I'd prefer a six-man bullpen, but if they're going to have seven guys in there, then this is a good combo.  Mixture of good K guys and ground ball guys.  Generally they have very good control of the strike zone as well.  
 
Of all the crappy things that the Sox have put out there this year, the bullpen generally has been a very big bright spot.  
 

bosockboy

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Mujica has had 7 scoreless appearances in ten tries in May....so he seems to be on the right track.  If he can tag team with Badenhop in middle relief, we could really shorten some games.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
He's historically been a good pitcher.  No reason to think he's suddenly lost it.  Yes, a number of bad outings.  It can happen.  I hope he's back to being what he's pretty much always been.
 

jimc

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Red Sox relievers are:
 
  • tied for 9th in baseball in shutdowns with 47 (Orioles most with 54)
  • tied for 2nd in baseball for fewest meltdowns with 16 (Padres fewest with 14)
  • tied for 6th in baseball for most innings pitched with 165.1
That is a pretty impressive combination of achievements that speaks to how good and deep the bullpen has been in the early going.
 

Eric Yu

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jimc said:
Red Sox relievers are:
 
 
 
 
I was looking at the number of innings pitched for the bullpen this morning, since my immediate thought was that they're being used to bail out short outings by starters rather frequently, and while they're sixth in total innings pitched, they're actually third in innings per game (behind, I think, the Rays and the Twins).
A few of the teams ahead of them in total IP have played a couple more games than the Red Sox.  
The Red Sox rotation was below average but not at the bottom for the average start length, I'm assuming the number of extra innings games plays into it as well.  
 

brandonchristensen

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Considering Millers recent string of bad luck/bad situations/bad results, his numbers are still very solid.
 

SouthernBoSox

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brandonchristensen said:
Considering Millers recent string of bad luck/bad situations/bad results, his numbers are still very solid.
He's been very unlucky. Pitchers with a 13.70 K/9, 2.74 BB/9, and .195 BAA don't typically have ERA's over 2.00.
 

KillerBs

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Nov 16, 2006
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There is no question the pen has been good, but still the plethora of relative soft tossing, control artists and the need/desire to integrate some of the AAA arms onto the 25 man, leads me to wonder whether one or more of the Badenhop/Capuano/Breslow/Mujica group could be moved at all, let alone for anything of value. A power arm or two in place of one or two from this group might make the pen as a whole even better while serving other objectives.  
 
Capuano and Badenhop both strike me as falling into the "sell high" category, tho I admit that Capuano especially has impressed greatly as a lefty longman who could flourish in that role for years. I certainly would not give him away just to clear a roster spot. I don't know what to think of Breslow. He has been a consistently good (far from great) reliever for 5 years and is only 33 years old. Still to my untrained eye, his stuff strikes me as underwhelming especially as he seems to have lost a tick or two from his FB this year. Mujica, I presume, is just about unmovable at this stage
 

SouthernBoSox

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You want to move players who are performing well because you don't like the way in which they are succeeding?

The job is getting outs. Koji, Taz, and Miller are three guys who can go out there and get you a K and they all threedo it in different ways.

I actually really like the mix out there right now. And would never suggest moving a pitcher who is performing well in Boston unless you get a steal from someone.
 

joe dokes

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SouthernBoSox said:
You want to move players who are performing well because you don't like the way in which they are succeeding?

The job is getting outs. Koji, Taz, and Miller are three guys who can go out there and get you a K and they all threedo it in different ways.

I actually really like the mix out there right now. And would never suggest moving a pitcher who is performing well in Boston unless you get a steal from someone.
 
Badenhop and Breslow should also benefit from having Drew at SS.
 

KillerBs

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Nov 16, 2006
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I am not sure Mujica or Breslow would describe themselves as "succeeding" so far this year, tho I acknowledge they are far from lost causes.
 
Badenhop has given up an opponents' slash line in 2014 of 286/336/420 which is markedly worse than the league average 253/322/395, so despite the nice ERA and the recent run of success, he has given us no reason to surmise he is anything other than what he has proven himself to be over the last 5+ years -- a decent, reasonably reliable 6th or 7th inning guy. No doubt he has some marginal value, especially to a real pennant contender, but the question remains, would the Sox be better off this year and beyond to give those innings to Webster, for instance? Recall when Doubront comes off the DL, they need to figure out what happens to Workman too.
 
True enough, this might be a bit premature, but I think the Sox would be smart to try and capitalize on this apparent excess of pitching, and moving some of the decent veteran bullpen arms looks like a better option than selling low on the AAA arms.   
 

joe dokes

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KillerBs said:
I am not sure Mujica or Breslow would describe themselves as "succeeding" so far this year, tho I acknowledge they are far from lost causes.
 
Badenhop has given up an opponents' slash line in 2014 of 286/336/420 which is markedly worse than the league average 253/322/395, so despite the nice ERA and the recent run of success, he has given us no reason to surmise he is anything other than what he has proven himself to be over the last 5+ years -- a decent, reasonably reliable 6th or 7th inning guy. No doubt he has some marginal value, especially to a real pennant contender, but the question remains, would the Sox be better off this year and beyond to give those innings to Webster, for instance? Recall when Doubront comes off the DL, they need to figure out what happens to Workman too.
 
 
 
For Badenhop and his 123 batters faced over 24 games, that's 4 total hits more than average; fewer than 2 more total baserunners than average; and 3 more total bases. That's hardly markedly worse. Beyond that mostly semantic point, I think you are undervaluing "reasonably reliable" relief pitchers.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Time to DL Mujica please.  Don't cut him.  I still think he's been too good over the course of his career to think he's suddenly, truly, a 7+ era guy.  But he can't keep pitching for the Boston Red Sox right now.  Too many good arms in AAA.  
 

Plympton91

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Lose Remerswaal said:
I'm not a fan, either, but he was coming off of 5 straight scoreless relief appearances before last night.  Not like they had a bunch of other options on hand by then, other than Miller
 
So, why not use Miller first?  I thought Farrell had been very good at using his bullpen last night until he went to the last man in the pen who wasn't the last man in the pen.
 

Puffy

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Plympton91 said:
 
So, why not use Miller first?  I thought Farrell had been very good at using his bullpen last night until he went to the last man in the pen who wasn't the last man in the pen.
 
I wondered if Farrell was hesitant to put Miller in a situation where he would be on the mound for another walk off.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Plympton91 said:
 
So, why not use Miller first?
 
Oh, I dunno, because coming up for Cleveland were two RHH, a no-power LHH and a switch-hitter? And because coming up after that, hopefully in the next inning, were four straight LHH in the heart of the order? It would have been completely stupid to bring in Miller at that point. Farrell was saving him, correctly. Mujica was the right choice, he just didn't do the job.
 
Not every bullpen loss is due to bullpen mismanagement.
 

smastroyin

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Let's call this an offense loss, not a bullpen loss. When you ask the bullpen to pitch 7 innings you are going to run into a guy having a bad day.

It's too bad that the first guy and the last guy were the worst ones, but you can't really put that on Farrell.
 

dynomite

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ivanvamp said:
Time to DL Mujica please.  Don't cut him.  I still think he's been too good over the course of his career to think he's suddenly, truly, a 7+ era guy.  But he can't keep pitching for the Boston Red Sox right now.  Too many good arms in AAA.
This is exactly right.

The idea that we should literally DFA Mujica after his first 20 IP is absurd, but even normally reasonable folks such as Gordon Edes seem to be going down that path: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/37573/mujica-another-bullpen-bust
Edes even compares it to the Yankees DFAing Aceves! ALFREDO ACEVES! The guy who signed a minor league deal with the Yankees in March and hasn't had an ERA below 4.86 in the majors since 2011.
 

Plympton91

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Capuano's starting to look more like the mop up man we expected we were getting.  His last 11 including tonight with one out left to get:
 
12.1 IP, 8 ER, 15 H, 9 BB, 10 K
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Plympton91 said:
Capuano's starting to look more like the mop up man we expected we were getting.  His last 11 including tonight with one out left to get:
 
12.1 IP, 8 ER, 15 H, 9 BB, 10 K
 
Good time to trade him, before his overall numbers get worse.  He'd be a useful piece on some contending team somewhere.  
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
So you think this recent bad stretch is sufficient for teams to not want him?  Relievers go through this kind of stretch regularly in major league baseball.  I'm assuming a GM in need of a lefty will look at the bigger picture with Capuano.  He can start or relieve, and has pretty good numbers vs. LHB (lifetime .233/.289/.333/.622 against him).  Contending teams can use a guy like that.
 
There's no doubt in my mind the Sox could find a willing trade partner for Capuano right now and get at least a semi-interesting prospect in return.  However, if he continues as he has been going, then yes, his value probably goes down.  Hence, trade him sooner rather than later.
 

Puffy

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Another run of quiet dominance is Burke Badenhop, who has now thrown 26.1 straight scoreless innings after struggling over his first 7 appearances. In the same timeframe, he's held opponents to a .195 BA and .503 OPS while inducing 9 double plays. He's appeared mostly in losing efforts, but has certainly made himself a valuable and increasingly trusted arm in the bullpen. I'd imagine he'd be one decent deadline trade chip, if the Sox become sellers.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
FWIW, here's the latest on Mujica (cherry-picking data alert):
 
Last 4 appearances:  4.1 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 5 k, 0.00 era, 0.23 whip, 10.4 k/9
 
Last 10 appearances:  9.2 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 3 er, 3 bb, 9 k, 2.79 era, 0.93 whip, 8.4 k/9
 
And all three of those runs, three of those hits, and one of those walks all came in one outing.  
 
In other words, lately he's been resembling the reliever he's been much of his career.  And that's a very good thing for the Red Sox.
 

OttoC

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A lot has been made of the Red Sox bullpen but they already have given up six walk-off losses this season. Three more will tie them for the next-to-worst team performance in that regard in the past 15 years (this century).
 
Year - Walk-off Losses
----------------------
2004 - 4
2011 - 4
2007 - 5
2000 - 6
2001 - 6
2002 - 6
2006 - 6
2009 - 6
2014 - 6 (74 games)
2008 - 7
2012 - 8
2013 - 8
2003 - 9
2005 - 9
2010 - 13
 

Plympton91

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It looks like they're going to have to make a decision on Rich Hill soon. Do we think Capuano is better than Hill?
 

Cuzittt

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OttoC said:
A lot has been made of the Red Sox bullpen but they already have given up six walk-off losses this season. Three more will tie them for the next-to-worst team performance in that regard in the past 15 years (this century).
 
I question how useful of a stat this is. After all, it isn't as if the team is handing the bullpen leads. They are coming in with the game tied... and the offense refuses to score. Eventually, someone scores. Unfortunately, a lot of those times it has been the opposition.

So, like most of the problems with this team... I blame the offense.
 

Wallball Tingle

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OttoC said:
A lot has been made of the Red Sox bullpen but they already have given up six walk-off losses this season. Three more will tie them for the next-to-worst team performance in that regard in the past 15 years (this century).
 
Year - Walk-off Losses
----------------------
2004 - 4
2011 - 4
2007 - 5
2000 - 6
2001 - 6
2002 - 6
2006 - 6
2009 - 6
2014 - 6 (74 games)
2008 - 7
2012 - 8
2013 - 8
2003 - 9
2005 - 9
2010 - 13
Isn't this mostly the offense being terrible and forcing them into this situation all the time?
 

williams_482

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Even with the six walk off losses, this bullpen is second in the majors in net WPA with +4.12. The Padres are first with +4.37 while the Brewers are third with +3.22. As far as I can tell WPA is not park adjusted, so the difference between Petco and Fenway may well be enough to close that gap. 
 
They are also #1 in fWAR (3.8), #1 in ERA- (68), #2 in FIP- (80) and #1 in xFIP- (88). This bullpen should be the least of our concerns.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
uilnslcoap said:
Isn't this mostly the offense being terrible and forcing them into this situation all the time?
 
Yes.
 
Last year the Sox averaged 5.33 runs scored and 4.06 runs allowed per 9 innings.
 
Looking just at the 9th inning, those averages were 5.35 and 3.00. So, basically normal offense and awesome pitching in the 9th (thank you Koji).
 
This year, the Sox are averaging 3.79 RS and 4.01 RA. In the 9th inning, 3.43 and 3.12. So like last year, our run prevention gets significantly better in the 9th (thank you again, Koji), but unlike last year, our already anemic offense gets worse in the 9th.
 
Everything wrong with this team is about the offense. If that's an exaggeration, it's a trivial one.
 

JMDurron

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Yeah, even pointing out walk-off losses as some kind of negative on the bullpen seems to be implying that they should somehow magically will the lineup to score more than 1.67 runs per game against the second worst pitching staff in the AL while playing at Fenway Park, and that's just unreasonable.  
 
I don't understand the fixation on blown saves for relievers (even setup men?) and walk-off losses.  It's not Andrew Miller's fault that he was hung out to dry by an inept offense 3 times over two weeks in Minnesota and Tampa Bay, and that's half of the walkoff losses right there.  It's also not his fault that Herrera forgot to cover second base in one of those games.  
 

Lose Remerswaal

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JMDurron said:
Yeah, even pointing out walk-off losses as some kind of negative on the bullpen seems to be implying that they should somehow magically will the lineup to score more than 1.67 runs per game against the second worst pitching staff in the AL while playing at Fenway Park, and that's just unreasonable.  
 
I don't understand the fixation on blown saves for relievers (even setup men?) and walk-off losses.  It's not Andrew Miller's fault that he was hung out to dry by an inept offense 3 times over two weeks in Minnesota and Tampa Bay, and that's half of the walkoff losses right there.  It's also not his fault that Herrera forgot to cover second base in one of those games.  
 
Exactly.  It's like giving the Cy Young award to the guy with the most wins.
 

OttoC

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The team that wins in a walk-off is either tied or trailing when that happens so the amount of runs scored by the other team has no bearing on whether the reliever did his job, i.e., prevent the other team from scoring.And all the great WAR and xWAr and FIP and xFIP don't cover the losses. There is reality here, people, and all of the sabermetric analysis is not going to give it to you. It's just going to point what is expected to happen given certain observed data, and it's not going to tell you that x will happen, just x +/-n.
 

Cuzittt

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Again, if the game is tied someone (eventually) is going to score and win. That team is most likely not going to be the Red Sox.

So, feel free to blame the bullpen for allowing occasional runs. I will continue to blame the offense for failing to score any.