The Bullpen Thread
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Of course, the starters that were KO'd in 3 of the last 5 games were the 3, 4 and 5 starters.
Symmetry there, but is it good symmetry? The glass half full side is that it's good for them to get a stinker out if the way now. But, they'd better get back to throwing effectively.
Bullpen thread, I know. MLBN and BBREF list Robby Scott as 6'3". Why did I think he looked shorter, even under 6 feet?
chicken and egg, but I wonder if either Rodriguez or Pomerantz gets any more rope in July to turn 2IP, Xruns into 5 or 6 Ip, X runs (while risking 3IP X+3 runs).
I think that is a very good assumption. Unlikely they get such fast hooks before rosters are expanded.
Is the splitter working? On the radio call they were saying it looked terrible and he was getting away with pitches.
I think it was inconsistent at best. I dont know enough about pitching to know if it's all about arm speed, or something related to that which causes velocity drop, or whether its more a matter of commitment/confidence, since you are throwing a pitch that is virtually guaranteed (relatively speaking) to get pasted if it doesn't drop.
Yeah, they were saying a tired arm wreaks havoc on it. Which makes total sense, given what we know about late season Taz.
Your LOOGY needs a lot better command.
Abad shouldn't see the field unless the margin is +/- 8 the rest of his Sox career.
He will probably have a nice couple seasons in a Padres or similar low pressure environment going forward.
Kelly on Thursday looked horrible.
He couldn't find the strike zone with either his breaking stuff or his fastball. He saved himself by getting two high heaters near the zone to get swinging strikes. Credit to him for getting three outs, but if I were Farrell I'd look at that performance and have no confidence in him at all to pitch in higher leverage spots. I've seen late era Dan Bard have better control days.
Betances Thu night was also all over the place with his breaking balls, but he was able to get his fastballs over. Actually I thought he looked a bit better than Kelly. Credit the Sox hitters there too. If I remember correctly, Benitendi stayed home on a curve in a piece of excellent hitting for a single. And Hanley was looking fastball all the way. He swung for the fences on one slider that broke hard away and would have been a ball. Then Betances threw him an actual fastball and he crushed it.
Chris Young pinch hit for Benitendi. Yankees brought in Parker to pitch to him and he subsequently hit Young in the head. Only then did Betances come in.
And it appeared that Sanchez called for a slider on the home run pitch to Hanley.
It was one bad outing. Let's see how Kelly finishes the year. People are letting SP Joe Kelly cloud their judgment.
The bullpen thus far in September (assuming I'm reading the splits on baseball-reference right)
42.1 innings, 5 ER (1.06 ERA), 29 hits, 16 BB, 55 K's, 3 HR, 1.06 WHIP, 11.7 K/9
42.1 innings, 5 ER (1.06 ERA), 29 hits, 16 BB, 55 K's, 3 HR, 1.06 WHIP, 11.7 K/9
By default they were likely going to improve on what was a dismal August. The guys were not THAT bad when you looked at all the peripherals. The return of Koji in the 8th inning has been a huge stabilizer. It allows Farrell to play matchups in the 7th or earlier with Ross/Zeigler/Barnes/Kelly etc. Hembree and Robby Scott have pitched in with the recent implosion from the back end of the rotation. Kimbrel had his most impresssive outing of the year yesterday, and even Taz looked better. A tremendous collective effort, what a difference a couple of weeks can make.
My memory for this stuff is not 100%, but I believe I was thinking of Ortiz's at-bat vs. Betances where PitchFX has him singling on a curve. I remember thinking it was a professional PA showing good patience to wait for the curve and drive it. Less impressive perhaps from Papi than the new kid, but still a fun inning to watch.
Any opinion on what Betances and the Sox bullpen looked like that night?
That Thu night game may go down in the books as a spiritual turning point in the division race. Great game to watch. Hanley has got to be happy too. Sox offense is relentless, even pretty far down from the top of the order.
Mookie out there would make any bullpen look good, but a 2.62 FIP in September is remarkable.
And a lot of that is due to folks who were in Pawtucket before this month. Which means the team has a lot of interesting decisions to make for the playoff roster. Robby Scott over Abad seems likely, but I'd like to see him get some more innings to make sure he's for real. Joe Kelly has a 2.35 FIP as a reliever, but he gives up a lot of hard-hit balls (which won't always be aimed directly at his glove) -- his SIERA is worse than Tazawa's. And do we trust Tazawa again after 4 clean September innings?
And a lot of that is due to folks who were in Pawtucket before this month. Which means the team has a lot of interesting decisions to make for the playoff roster. Robby Scott over Abad seems likely, but I'd like to see him get some more innings to make sure he's for real. Joe Kelly has a 2.35 FIP as a reliever, but he gives up a lot of hard-hit balls (which won't always be aimed directly at his glove) -- his SIERA is worse than Tazawa's. And do we trust Tazawa again after 4 clean September innings?
For one night at least, it looked on TV like Tazawa's splitter was back.
That would be awesome if he could keep it going.
That would be awesome if he could keep it going.
Farrell has a tough job both getting us to a divisional title against stiff opposition and giving guys opportunities to answer some of these questions all at once.
Let's call a spade a spade: the bullpen has been legit since Scott, Kelly, and Koji have (re)joined it. Keep it simple and run with what's working. At this point, it's probably Barnes and Abad that get left off the playoff roster unless we see something in the next two weeks to change that.
Does Eduardo Rodriguez deserve a spot over Barnes in a five games series is the big question to me? I'd say yes in a 7 game to have an emergency long man, but meh, in a short series. He needs at least a QS or two to give him a chance IMO.
Edit: If Wright comes back, I think there's a reasonable chance E-Rod is not making either roster. And Wright gets the long man spot.
Price
Porcello
Clay
Pomeranz
Wright
Kelly
Ross
Koji
Kimbrel
Scott
Ziegler
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Too early to tell. We can only predict. These are the guys who'll need to audition for placement:
Wright (long relief, starter, or out)
Pomeranz (starter, or out)
Buchholz (starter - in lieu of Pomeranz/Rodriguez, or long relief)
Rodriguez (starter, or out)
Scott (relief, or out)
Tazawa (relief, assuming two of Scott, Barnes or Wright are out of the pen - or out)
Barnes (reliever, assuming two of Scott, Tazawa, Wright are out of the pen - or out)
Or, to make the discussion easier:
Price
Porcello
Rodriguez (Buchholz / Wright)
Pomerantz (Buchholz / Wright)
Buchholz
Scott (Tazawa)
Wright (Barnes)
Kelly
Ross
Ziegler
Uehara
Kimbrel
This assumes 13 pitchers...12 if Pomeranz or Rodriguez are left off the roster.
It assumes Wright is possibly in the equation.
I see Clay making the roster regardless, due to his ability to start or come out of the pen - particularly if Wright is off the roster.
Both Rodriguez and Pomerantz need to justify a role....as does a healthy Wright.
So many variables...
Wright (long relief, starter, or out)
Pomeranz (starter, or out)
Buchholz (starter - in lieu of Pomeranz/Rodriguez, or long relief)
Rodriguez (starter, or out)
Scott (relief, or out)
Tazawa (relief, assuming two of Scott, Barnes or Wright are out of the pen - or out)
Barnes (reliever, assuming two of Scott, Tazawa, Wright are out of the pen - or out)
Or, to make the discussion easier:
Price
Porcello
Rodriguez (Buchholz / Wright)
Pomerantz (Buchholz / Wright)
Buchholz
Scott (Tazawa)
Wright (Barnes)
Kelly
Ross
Ziegler
Uehara
Kimbrel
This assumes 13 pitchers...12 if Pomeranz or Rodriguez are left off the roster.
It assumes Wright is possibly in the equation.
I see Clay making the roster regardless, due to his ability to start or come out of the pen - particularly if Wright is off the roster.
Both Rodriguez and Pomerantz need to justify a role....as does a healthy Wright.
So many variables...
I would think the decisions are between Scott and Abad as LOOGY, Kelly and Barnes as RH when a K is needed, and Buchholz and Wright as long man. I don't think you need both of any of those pairings.
Maybe the bullpen was horribly overworked before 9.1. and now that there are a bunch of extra guys, people are getting their stuff back because they have a couple of days between outings?
Why are people assuming Pom's only postseason role would be as a starter? He has recent experience as a one inning reliever. When everyone was healthy / pitching well, there was speculation he would end up there anyway due to track record & his career high IP. He might not make it now if he continues to look worn down, but it's not as if Scott or Barnes are locks ahead of him.
I hate doing this before the team has clinched anything (I believe in curses), but here goes:
Starters: You have Buchholz, Wright, EdRod, and Pomerantz competing for 2 starting spots. All but EdRod could end up in the bullpen as long guys, but there's probably only room for one such long man. This one is almost impossible to handicap right now.
Relievers: If we assume 12 pitchers, and one of the above starters is kept for long duty, that leaves 7 bullpen spots. For the definites, we have Kimbrel, Koji, Ziegler, and Robby Ross, leaving 3 spots open. For those 3, I would say the likely ones are Kelly, Hembree (remember him?), and Tazawa, Of those 3, Tazawa is the one most likely to be moved to the definite column. Robby Scott is the either the Next Man Up if any of those 3 get left off due to injury or ineffectiveness, or the 13th pitcher if the Sox go that route. Barnes and Abad are on the outside looking in.
And to round this out, my bench has Hanigan, Holt, Benintendi, and possibly Hernandez.
Starters: You have Buchholz, Wright, EdRod, and Pomerantz competing for 2 starting spots. All but EdRod could end up in the bullpen as long guys, but there's probably only room for one such long man. This one is almost impossible to handicap right now.
Relievers: If we assume 12 pitchers, and one of the above starters is kept for long duty, that leaves 7 bullpen spots. For the definites, we have Kimbrel, Koji, Ziegler, and Robby Ross, leaving 3 spots open. For those 3, I would say the likely ones are Kelly, Hembree (remember him?), and Tazawa, Of those 3, Tazawa is the one most likely to be moved to the definite column. Robby Scott is the either the Next Man Up if any of those 3 get left off due to injury or ineffectiveness, or the 13th pitcher if the Sox go that route. Barnes and Abad are on the outside looking in.
And to round this out, my bench has Hanigan, Holt, Benintendi, and possibly Hernandez.
In a playoff series, is a team more likely to use a 5th bench player or an 8th reliever? I ask because an 11-man pitching staff seems more than adequate, given that (1) you only need four starters, thus allowing you to still have 7 guys in the pen, and (2) there are more days off, thus giving your bullpen more rest.
My preliminary 25-man playoff roster:
Starters
C - Leon
1b - Ramirez
2b - Pedroia
3b - Shaw
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Young
CF - Bradley
RF - Betts
DH - Ortiz
Bench
C - Hanigan
IF/OF - Holt
OF - Benintendi
U - Hernandez
Rotation
LHP - Price
RHP - Porcello
LHP - Rodriguez
Bullpen
RHP - Ziegler
RHP - Koji
RHP - Kimbrel
LHP - Ross
RHP - Tazawa
RHP - Hembree
So that leaves me with two spots to consider (plus that rotation spot, dealt with below). The possible candidates are:
C - Vazquez (unlikely though)
IF - Hill
RHP - Barnes
LHP - Abad
LHP - Scott
RHP - Kelly
Now, that one rotation spot to figure out. Not sure what Pomeranz' status may be. If he can still pitch, but not be a starter, he becomes a viable relief option. Not sure what Wright's status will be - good chance, I guess, that he's not even going to be available for the playoffs. And that leaves....Clay Buchholz perhaps? Yikes. Not loving that 4th spot right now.
Two weeks of auditions, in the midst of a pennant race.
My preliminary 25-man playoff roster:
Starters
C - Leon
1b - Ramirez
2b - Pedroia
3b - Shaw
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Young
CF - Bradley
RF - Betts
DH - Ortiz
Bench
C - Hanigan
IF/OF - Holt
OF - Benintendi
U - Hernandez
Rotation
LHP - Price
RHP - Porcello
LHP - Rodriguez
Bullpen
RHP - Ziegler
RHP - Koji
RHP - Kimbrel
LHP - Ross
RHP - Tazawa
RHP - Hembree
So that leaves me with two spots to consider (plus that rotation spot, dealt with below). The possible candidates are:
C - Vazquez (unlikely though)
IF - Hill
RHP - Barnes
LHP - Abad
LHP - Scott
RHP - Kelly
Now, that one rotation spot to figure out. Not sure what Pomeranz' status may be. If he can still pitch, but not be a starter, he becomes a viable relief option. Not sure what Wright's status will be - good chance, I guess, that he's not even going to be available for the playoffs. And that leaves....Clay Buchholz perhaps? Yikes. Not loving that 4th spot right now.
Two weeks of auditions, in the midst of a pennant race.
The wildcard in all the roster machinations is who the opponent is. It might make sense to carry an extra pitcher against certain lineups where it wouldn't against others.
For example, the Indians are fairly balanced in their lineup with as many LHH threats as RHH (and some switch hitters). Carrying Abad or Scott to mix and match in the late innings might be a prudent thing. On the other hand, the Rangers are fairly RHH heavy so there would be less need for a LOOGY with Ross already in the pen.
Overall though, with the way the lineup is going, I think there's more benefit to the Red Sox to carry an extra pitcher over an extra position player. I'd say that six out of the nine positions you aren't going to pinch hit for (CF, RF, 1B, 2B, SS, DH) and the other three all have platoon situations built in. So if the bench is back-up catcher, Shaw/Hill, Young/Benintendi, and Holt, you're pretty well covered in a short series. Carrying a 5th bench guy is a luxury they may not need.
For example, the Indians are fairly balanced in their lineup with as many LHH threats as RHH (and some switch hitters). Carrying Abad or Scott to mix and match in the late innings might be a prudent thing. On the other hand, the Rangers are fairly RHH heavy so there would be less need for a LOOGY with Ross already in the pen.
Overall though, with the way the lineup is going, I think there's more benefit to the Red Sox to carry an extra pitcher over an extra position player. I'd say that six out of the nine positions you aren't going to pinch hit for (CF, RF, 1B, 2B, SS, DH) and the other three all have platoon situations built in. So if the bench is back-up catcher, Shaw/Hill, Young/Benintendi, and Holt, you're pretty well covered in a short series. Carrying a 5th bench guy is a luxury they may not need.
I'm seeing Hembree on people's postseason rosters for some reason. No way. He's been back up from Pawtucket for about a month, and during that time, here are his stats compared with some other relievers:
Hembree 10 IP, 2 HR, 6 K, 4 BB
Tazaza 9 IP, 1 HR, 9 K, 1 BB
Barnes 8 IP, 1 HR, 10 K, 4 BB, 1 HBP
For a guy who spent half the season in AAA, you'd need to see a lot better major league numbers than the other relievers before putting him on a postseason roster.
Hembree 10 IP, 2 HR, 6 K, 4 BB
Tazaza 9 IP, 1 HR, 9 K, 1 BB
Barnes 8 IP, 1 HR, 10 K, 4 BB, 1 HBP
For a guy who spent half the season in AAA, you'd need to see a lot better major league numbers than the other relievers before putting him on a postseason roster.
True, Hembree has given up a couple HRs of late, but he comes in throwing strikes in the mid 90s and seems like he can get the breaking ball over when he needs to do so. He is also seems like a better bet to go multiple innings, which very well could need with this starting staff.
OTOH, if they think Tazawa is back (ie not still topping out at 92) that could make sense too. I would be surprised if Barnes doesn't make the post season roster, if we get there.
Pomeranz has to be on the bubble, though, I would think.
OTOH, if they think Tazawa is back (ie not still topping out at 92) that could make sense too. I would be surprised if Barnes doesn't make the post season roster, if we get there.
Pomeranz has to be on the bubble, though, I would think.
It really is amazing how much vintage Koji changes the calculus of the entire bullpen
Was Kimbrell really needed last night? I didn't see the last couple innings, but the box score looked innocuous. B2B for him and Ziegler, I guess neither would be available today?
I think it was a case of going for the throat by Playoff Farrell. He hoped to get through the ninth with just Scott, but as soon as there was a baserunner he brought in Kimbrel to snuff the O's out before they could get anything going. And given that Kimbrel only threw 5 pitches, after 14 the night before, he may still be available if necessary today. Same with Ziegler who threw 12 total pitches between the two games. I imagine Farrell will try to avoid them if he can, but I don't think it will be an avoid them at all costs situation.
At the rate the Sox are going right now, they could have the division locked up by the end of the weekend, giving them a whole week to rest key guys as needed.
At the rate the Sox are going right now, they could have the division locked up by the end of the weekend, giving them a whole week to rest key guys as needed.
Thats how I saw it. Bury Baltimore and Toronto already lost. And he still has every-other-day Koji available to close tonight if he wants to stay away from Kimbrel.
I also assume the fact that Koji is back, and back big, means Farrell is comfortable with him closing tonight. I was surprised when it happened but ended up liking the move and looking at is as a step on the throat move.
Edit:Wow lots of quick responses that say pretty much the same thing, oh well.
Edit:Wow lots of quick responses that say pretty much the same thing, oh well.
Stepping on the throat last night makes tonight a house money game. If they want to avoid Kimbrel and Ziegler, they can.
But man....wouldn't it be just sooooooo sweet to win tonight and go 8 in a row against Baltimore and New York?
Of course. But you manage to break your opponent in that situation and not give them any change at momentum. Play it soft last night, give them a chance to rally, and they're playing for a split tonight, Take no chances, just like in the playoffs.
Watching some of the Farrell post-game comments makes me think that Robby Scott is being given serious consideration to making the post-season roster as a LOOGY. I don't recall the exact quote, but JF was quite impressed with how Robby blew away Davis in the ninth.
Davis looked just terrible against Scott. Not even close. His loogyness is very serious. I think with regard to Kimbrel, Farrell has mentioned he likes Joe Kelly to start an inning clean, so bringing him in with a runner on was a no go. And Taz has gotten lit up vs. the Orioles this year, especially in that park. LIT UP. So he's not the guy to call on with a man on in the 9th. 4 runs can happen pretty quickly there - a bloop, a walk and a blast. Blam, tie game, there goes your momentum, and you ignite a fire under the O's, much the way the Yanks did for us when Betances shit the bed last week. Kimbrel was the only move there, in my opinion. I wasn't sure when I saw it happening, but a little thought and it made a lot of sense.
I'm certain the AL playoffs dictate a deeper pen and lighter bench.
The Red Sox have a long man in either Buchholz, Pomeranz or (maybe) Wright. They don't need Hembree.
I'm confident that Scott makes the team to give them two lefties in the pen. I also think Barnes is right on the cusp, since Farrell seems to go to him so often. Given the choice between Barnes and Kelly (in an 8-man pen) Kelly wins out. So it comes down to Tazawa vs. Barnes and the 4th starter / long reliever a choice between Pomeranz and Buchholz, both of whom make the roster.
Kimbrel
Koji
Ziegler
Ross
Kelly
Scott
Tazawa or Barnes
Buchholz or Pomeranz (one a starter, the other a reliever)
The Red Sox have a long man in either Buchholz, Pomeranz or (maybe) Wright. They don't need Hembree.
I'm confident that Scott makes the team to give them two lefties in the pen. I also think Barnes is right on the cusp, since Farrell seems to go to him so often. Given the choice between Barnes and Kelly (in an 8-man pen) Kelly wins out. So it comes down to Tazawa vs. Barnes and the 4th starter / long reliever a choice between Pomeranz and Buchholz, both of whom make the roster.
Kimbrel
Koji
Ziegler
Ross
Kelly
Scott
Tazawa or Barnes
Buchholz or Pomeranz (one a starter, the other a reliever)
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Keep in mind how many days off there are in the playoffs. Pretty much every reliever could pitch every game. They may not need as many as you think. We definitely want to keep a long man out there to let Farrell use a quick hook for a struggling starter though.
Exactly. If you let Baltimore back into that game and they somehow win? The momentum they'd gain would be huge and they'd head into a series vs ARI feeling a lot better about themselves. They've got Ross, Taz, Kelly and Koji available tonight (and hopefully they only need to use the last one). Now? They're scrambling to avoid a sweep. I think Farrell absolutely made the right call. Step on their throats.
They've been resting guys already - Papi, Pedey and Hanley (and Shaw, if he counts) have all gotten a night off over the last 4 games.
