I can't imagine anyone would waste time on a question like that in a post game interview on getaway day after they won one of the ballsiest games of the year, using 9 pitchers. Maybe they ask today.
The Bullpen Thread
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Yeah, I did not think they would ask that question yesterday but was just curious. It would have cleared up some of the rage people here have towards Farrell.
It's apparent by the bullpen usage that Kelly, Tazawa, Hembree, and Noe are being utilized as innings eaters in games we trail while Ross, Barnes, Ziegler, Koji, and Kimbrel will be called upon to hold the lead. The only way Tazawa was entering was if we lost the lead in the 8th. He hadn't pitched in 8 days and was obviously getting his work in when he got up.
I think Kelly is due for a late inning role. Even closing when there's a reason to doubt Kimbrel. I also have really liked Taz but without his splitter in good fettle he is a big risk.
Finally, Farrell managed like winning was more important than keep relief pitchers comfortable in their well defined roles. Until I see it happen again and again, I'll assume it's an exception.
Yeah, good aggressive pen management yesterday, but let's be clear; that's something you do after August with the division lead on the line. Try it all season long and you'll have a bunch of dead arms for the end of the year. Hope Price can go long today and give them some rest.
This is an interesting take as the Farrell critics complaint all season has been that the relievers HAVEN'T had defined roles. Of course the Farrell defenders recognize that the lack of defined roles are caused by overall ineffectiveness of those involved.
You can use 8 relievers in a September game with expanded rosters and personnel. Expecting this to occur during the course of an 162-game season aren't managing for the long term properly.
I'm more arguing that he has been acceptable but not the elite guy we thought we were getting - but. . .
The xFip is 3.43 which is 36th among qualified relievers and close to median among closers. The walk rate is 14th worst. He's been a middle of the road closer which is fine over the course of the season, but against patient elite lineups, he concerns me a bit.
The home run rate is 18th best, but there are really miniscule differences there, and a home run or two more than normal kind of skews things either way.
He's not the top concern for me in the post season, but I hope Farrell is aggressive with pulling him if he can't find the plate.
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But what we should expect is to use our second closer (Ziegler), in the 6th inning against the heart of the Toronto order instead of waiting until the 8th because he's always the 8th inning guy and 8th inning guys pitch the 8th. Ziegler is exactly who you want facing Donaldson, EE and Bautista. Farrell's other problem is that he keeps guys in these roles too long when they're bad. (Abad when he first got here, Tazawa) But in this game, he made every correct move which is something new.
I don't know why Kelly had to wait so long to come up when Taz was pouring gasoline on every fire Farrell brought him in to put out.
Not sure I buy that Kelly is lower on the depth chart than Barnes.
He was given the 8th to Barnes' 7th on Saturday in a 1 run game.
Probably didn't come in yesterday because his pitch count was higher than Barnes'.
I bet we see this a good bit going forward.
Barnes/Ross/Ziegler
Kelly
Koji
Kimbrel
He was given the 8th to Barnes' 7th on Saturday in a 1 run game.
Probably didn't come in yesterday because his pitch count was higher than Barnes'.
I bet we see this a good bit going forward.
Barnes/Ross/Ziegler
Kelly
Koji
Kimbrel
I like this lineup. Barnes looks like a deer in the headlights out there. Kelly dominated AAA out of the pen, and likely could have helped Boston the last ten days of August while Tazawa and Abad were torching off wins. If Kelly came up earlier he may have established himself already in the 7th (ahead of Barnes), or as an 8th inning option with the lead if Koji is unavailable. With the delayed call-up his role is still an uncertainty. I hope Farrell throws him into high leverage in the next series to see if he can slot in behind Kimbrel and Koji as you suggest.
yeah we might be sitting really pretty right now had they banished Taz to the DL earlier in august and given kelly another go.
While we're talking about Taz: I think early overuse broke him, but as his workload was actually pretty reasonable, I don't think Farrell is to blame for not anticipating his decline.
Through the end of May, Tazawa got into 22 games and pitched 20 IP. He K'd 26 and walked 5. He allowed 13 hits and 5 runs, for a 2.25 ERA. 9 holds and one loss. A .500 OPS allowed. 1 HR (0.45 per nine). That's a heavyish workload, but not too heavy, and excellent results. He has pitched as many as 68 IP in a season as a reliever, and through April and May, that put him on a 60ish IP pace.
Since May 31, he's thrown another 25 2/3 IP in 27 games. His ERA has more than doubled to 6.31 as his OPS allowed has almost doubled to .916. His home run rate has sextupled to 2.8/9. Yikes.
Through the end of May, Tazawa got into 22 games and pitched 20 IP. He K'd 26 and walked 5. He allowed 13 hits and 5 runs, for a 2.25 ERA. 9 holds and one loss. A .500 OPS allowed. 1 HR (0.45 per nine). That's a heavyish workload, but not too heavy, and excellent results. He has pitched as many as 68 IP in a season as a reliever, and through April and May, that put him on a 60ish IP pace.
Since May 31, he's thrown another 25 2/3 IP in 27 games. His ERA has more than doubled to 6.31 as his OPS allowed has almost doubled to .916. His home run rate has sextupled to 2.8/9. Yikes.
One, maybe two games. That's what you can argue Tazawa directly cost the team in August. He had other bad outings, but only two where his actions were the cause of a tie or a lead to disappear and the Sox eventually lost the game.
August 10 against the Yankees. Entered a tie game in the seventh inning with 2 on and 2 outs and gave up a walk and a double to drive two in before he got out of the inning. Started the 8th giving up a solo shot to put the Sox down by 3. They lost by 5.
August 18 in Detroit. Started a clean 8th inning with a 2 run lead. Gave up three straight hits, plating one run before being pulled for Ziegler. Ziegler gives up a hit that plates another to tie the game. Ziegler eventually walks in the go-ahead run and the Sox lose by one.
Every other game in the month, the lead didn't change hands on his account. Or if it did, they eventually came back to win (such as on 8/31 against the Rays).
Maybe Kelly doesn't blow those two games, maybe someone else does. Impossible to say. But I think saying that the Red Sox might be "sitting pretty" if they'd had Kelly in the pen instead of Tazawa in August is a bit of a stretch.
Taz has only pitched one inning in September, on the 3rd, and didn't allow a run. Is it crazy to think a prolonged rest is what is needed for him to return to form? Is there precedent?
Edit - By prolonged rest I mean a couple of weeks, not the off-season.
I dunno, I suspect there might be more to the art of adjusting to setup relief (after years of starting) than meets the eye. The one thing the Sox couldn't afford to do with Kelly is make him change roles, and then throw him into the fire before he was ready. I don't know what those adjustments would be or if they existed with Kelly, but I am guessing that's the answer you'd get from the Sox.
He already had a couple of weeks off, but they didn't do anything for his declining velocity.
True. And I am splitting hairs here. But up 4 this late in the year and up 2 is a world of difference with so few games left.
Thank you, offense, for making this topic moot for a while.
Such a difference going from 'which one of these clowns will kill us next?' to 'hey, it's been a while, let's get him some work.' #LowLev
Such a difference going from 'which one of these clowns will kill us next?' to 'hey, it's been a while, let's get him some work.' #LowLev
Abad got exactly THREE chances in his "role" before getting kicked to the curb.
Who made Ziegler the "second closer" (except when Koji and Kimbrel were both out)? Farrell obviously doesn't trust him against LHP's as much as a healthy Koji, and now that he thinks he might have a healthy Koji, he can use Ziegler differently. I think he's said as much.
Another big pick up by the bullpen last night after Pomeranz couldn't get an out in the third inning. 7 IP, 5 hits, 1 R, 4 BB, 7 K's without using Koji, Ziegler, or Kimbrel. They didn't win and obviously the walks weren't great, but from a unit that was maligned and seen as this team's biggest weakness and possible hurdle to making the playoffs and beyond, their performance recently gives at least some reason for optimism.
538: Managers are better at BP usage: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseball-managers-are-getting-smarter-about-handling-their-bullpens/?ex_cid=538twitter
Yeah, he looked really good last night - even getting into a little trouble, he wiggled himself out nicely. And Eck was praising him left and right. I feel like he might have a good read on relief pitchers.
Maybe. His MLB career as a starter he has struck out 16.4% of the batters he has faced. As a MR, it's 22.2%. As a starter, he walked 9.3% of the batters, as a MR, 6.8%.
Even looking at generic stats, as a MR he has a 2.89 era in 62ip with 59k and 18bb while giving up 6 HRs.
16ip with 25k/2bb and an era of 0.56 in Pawtucket this year.
The only other time he pitched in a MR role in the minors was 09 and 10 before this year. In 09 as a starter he had an era of 10.50 in 2ip. In 24.1ip in MR, he had an era of 3.33 with 22k/6bb and 0 HR. In 2010, he had a 5.63 era as a starter in 78.1ip. As a MR, 25ip 1.44 era 20k/11bb 0 HR. I always see the low strikeout totals as a MR being the knock against Kelly, but he really hasn't had any significant time as a MR and the few times he has, he's actually struck guys out. Add a few years of pitching experience and I could see that k% improve to 25-30%.
I've been hoping for that since he was raking in AAA. The simplified pitch mix makes him far more effective. He's like Barnes, except with a good curve ball. Which is weird, because his curve was never that good before.
Eck's not the only one. Enough with the 5th inning appearances let's see what Kelly can do late in the game. The guy throws 100 mph and has a curve ball. He looks nasty. He theoretically could be a key contributor for the stretch run and beyond. What is Farrell waiting for?
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True, there hasn't been many late/close situations recently. I looked back at his usage since Sept. 1st and he has been used in the 8th and 9th already, albeit the Sox were losing, or they had a 4-run + lead. Was a little surprised to see him in the 5th in his last appearance though. His stuff seems to warrant a higher-lev role and they wound up with Noe Ramirez in the 8th inning of that game. I'm hoping Farrell's done with the early appearances, and holds Kelly back for the bigger spots now.
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Kelly looked horrible last night.
Gave up three base runners and barely got out of the inning clean after a lucky catch. He couldn't find the strike zone with any of his pitches. With control like he showed last night we should have little confidence in him going forward. Can't command the fastball, can't succeed.
He looked good, the double was an opposite field ground ball and the SOs were a combo of high fastballs and low splitters.
He didn't exactly face murderers row but it was encouraging.
Still throwing 92-93, and not 94-96, but that ought to be enough if the splitter is working. I think he has to make peace with the slower fastball. I wonder if the loss of velocity impacts the confidence in the splitter.
This is why Kelly is in his current role this season with Tazawa, Hembree, and Noe. Overall they are doing a great job in games we're trailing in eating those early and middle innings to give our offense a chance. That doesn't mean that any of them should be thrust into higher leverage roles when there is no reason why Farrell should have confidence in them at this point in the season. We have better options who have had more success in those roles this year.
Yeah, if Hanley had lined out into Betances' glove instead of hitting the homer, Kelly and Betances would have had quite similar appearances.
Obviously very small sample, but his last five outings (Taz):
5.1 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 5 k, .308 babip (actually that's higher than it was all season long up til these last five games, when it was at .295)
5.1 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 5 k, .308 babip (actually that's higher than it was all season long up til these last five games, when it was at .295)
The starters have been knocked out early in 3 of the last 5 games, so the bullpen is pitching a lot of innings lately. Luckily it's September and we have lots of arms out there so the main guys aren't too drained.