That's a good way to look at it; maybe that's why I think this is a potentially tough spot until 9/1.I would argue that right now, 10 games is 1/4 of the season. That's a pretty big consideration to me.
That's a good way to look at it; maybe that's why I think this is a potentially tough spot until 9/1.I would argue that right now, 10 games is 1/4 of the season. That's a pretty big consideration to me.
It's possible, I mean, none of us were thinking Tommy Layne's replacement would come in and lose two games for them right out of the shoot. It's really hard for a LOOGY to make that much of an impact either way.I would argue that right now, 10 games is 1/4 of the season. That's a pretty big consideration to me.
Further illustrating the pickle the sox are in, if the guy that replaces, say, Tazawa on the roster is another mop up guy, then it doesn;t really make a difference. I dont know how the Sox see Kelly right now.It's possible, I mean, none of us were thinking Tommy Layne's replacement would come in and lose two games for them right out of the shoot. It's really hard for a LOOGY to make that much of an impact either way.
But I'd be more on board if there were a definite upgrade down there, like if Kopech were in AAA or something. But there really isn't anyone obvious waiting in the wings. There isn't even a consensus on who should be up next. Even if Kelly is the guy, he's hardly a slam dunk improvement. Some arms look good, but it's doubtful they'd be thrown right into the fire either.
Even if Kelly is the guy, he's hardly a slam dunk improvement. Some arms look good, but it's doubtful they'd be thrown right into the fire either.
This is exactly why I would like to see Kelly promoted and given a shot as the 8th inning set up reliever. No one else has seized the role and so what do the Red Sox have to lose? They gave Barnes a chance, and he promptly walked two guys, forcing the Red Sox to turn to Kimbrel in the 8th. In other words, the problem is ongoing. The only thing we know at this point is that Tazawa is not the answer.What the Hell do you have to lose?
Kelly should have been brought up by now and been given the opportunity to pitch in the 7th.This is exactly why I would like to see Kelly promoted and given a shot as the 8th inning set up reliever. No one else has seized the role and so what do the Red Sox have to lose? They gave Barnes a chance, and he promptly walked two guys, forcing the Red Sox to turn to Kimbrel in the 8th. In other words, the problem is ongoing. The only thing we know at this point is that Tazawa is not the answer.
Great stuff, thanks.Two items.
1. His bb/9 is up. 2.8 compared to 2.4 in 2014.
2. His HR/FB percentage is way up. 12.7% this year, compared with 4.9% in 2014.
So he's walking more guys, and when he gives up fly balls, he's giving up more homers. And for a relief pitcher, a few more baserunners and a few more homers is going to impact the era considerably.
But many of his other important metrics are right in line with his great 2014 season. It's weird.
Does the extra walks and homers mean he's "cooked"? Or is that just bad luck, which can happen to anyone, especially relievers?
He would be one welcome dude. Ohayou Gozaimasu.Optimism about Koji pitching this season. Slated to throw off a mound Tuesday.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/08/22/its-looking-like-koji-uehara-might-be-able-to-help-this-season-after-all/
OK, but that's all the Japanese I ever learned.Better yet, Okaeri nasai. (Welcome back)
Tazawa's velocity has stayed basically the same. Maybe down one mph.
[snip]
So he's walking more guys, and when he gives up fly balls, he's giving up more homers. And for a relief pitcher, a few more baserunners and a few more homers is going to impact the era considerably.
But many of his other important metrics are right in line with his great 2014 season. It's weird.
Does the extra walks and homers mean he's "cooked"? Or is that just bad luck, which can happen to anyone, especially relievers?
I just don't see the downside in this. He's been a strong reliever in the bigs before and his sample size this year as one is like an inning.Joe Kelly with 2 more scoreless IP 4K's no BB. Think it is time to give him another shot.
No one clearly wants to pitch high lev innings on this team besides Kimbrell.
Absolutely. In fact, I'd point to yesterday's start as the very proof of that fact.Along those lines, is there anyone willing to make the case that Henry Owens has some utility as a reliever?
I definitely still would, and I'd point to the start on Sunday as a clear demonstration of that.Along those lines, is there anyone willing to make the case that Henry Owens has some utility as a reliever?
If Kelly is not hitting the mitt consistently in AAA but getting those hitters out, there's little reason to bring him up yet.With each passing day it becomes a bit more baffling. Granted Kelly has had his struggles this season, but he's been the good soldier, he's accepted the role that's been given to him and is succeeding. There is a clear need for that role at the big league level AND it's not like there should be a concern about him facing MLB hitters for the first time. What more are they looking for out of the guy? Also should he fail, don't you want to see that sooner rather than later?
I haven't watched him down there, but based on the numbers, it's very hard to believe that his command/control is that bad. While walks aren't a perfect proxy, I think that we can all agree that they are correlated to those skills, and he has demonstrated by a HUGE margin the lowest walk rate of his career, at any level, in AAA this year (over 32 innings). For his career in the majors, he has walked about 9% of batters faced, in the majors this year he was at 15.5%, and in AAA this year he is at 4%. He also has the highest strikeout rate of his career in the minors right now.If Kelly is not hitting the mitt consistently in AAA but getting those hitters out, there's little reason to bring him up yet.
It does seem odd. The two most likely replaceable parts are Tazawa and Hembree, with Tazawa being the more obvious one right now. But as we've discussed, if he insists that he isn't hurt, DLing him is out. That leaves the hope of Kelly (in the shadow of his last time up) vs. the devil-you-know of Hembree.I haven't watched him down there, but based on the numbers, it's very hard to believe that his command/control is that bad. While walks aren't a perfect proxy, I think that we can all agree that they are correlated to those skills, and he has demonstrated by a HUGE margin the lowest walk rate of his career, at any level, in AAA this year (over 32 innings). For his career in the majors, he has walked about 9% of batters faced, in the majors this year he was at 15.5%, and in AAA this year he is at 4%. He also has the highest strikeout rate of his career in the minors right now.
Given the way that the bullpen has been performing, there has to be something going on either behind the scenes or with roster management concerns, because it's hard to believe he doesn't deserve a shot with the big club right now.
5 times in his last 11 appearances Taz has given up 2 or more earned runs. 4 out of his last 5. These aren't inherited runners, but runners that he allowed on base who've scored. He's roughly a month back from being DLed for shoulder impingement, but he's had enough appearances since then to discount him being rusty. He's only signed through this season. If he's not willing to take a DL stint is there much to lose at this stage by DFA him? I get that you don't want to jump the gun, but at this point the Sox don't have many bullets left in the chamber. Perhaps if a low leverage situation presents itself against Tampa (like maybe last night in the ninth) would be a good spot to get him in with a short leash and and see if he implodes again. The clock is ticking and I'm guessing there are guys clearing waivers who are better. This thing needs to get figured out before the 31st to get someone on the post season roster.
The K-Rod ExemptionFrancisco replaced right-hander Steve Green, who initially was placed on the DL on March 11, while recovering from off-season Tommy John surgery. Steve was later transferred to the 60-day DL on April 5. The rules allow a club to replace an injured pitcher eligible for postseason with another pitcher, or a position player to do the same. Green's spot was simply replaced by Francisco, who was eligible because on August 31 he was on the 40-man roster.
I believe you're right. My point being if it's not Kelly or anyone else currently with the Sox that is on or can be moved to the 40 man he needs to be on that roster by the 31st which is believe it or not 8 days from today. .
Cuevas and Jerez also seem fungible. I don't think opening up 40-man roster spots prior to 8/31 is an issue.If I can count right, we have an open slot on the 40 man just waiting for either Papelbon or Moncada and frankly, we could DFA Noe Ramirez or Fernando Abad without doing much--if any--damage to the quality of the roster.
I think Taz might be another one for the pile — along with Price, Archer, Pineda, Stroman, Gray, Shields, Keuchel, and a bunch of others — of pitchers victimized by the (alleged) newly lively ball. There are a ton of guys out there with peripherals that don't quite add up to their lines, because of HR rates that look flukey to us.Tazawa's velocity has stayed basically the same. Maybe down one mph.
His line drive rate is lower (29% down to 24%) than it was two years ago, when he put up a 2.86 era and was one of the better relievers in the game.
His K/9 numbers have never been higher than this year (10.2).
His strike percentage is a little lower than two years ago (65.6% down to 63.6%). His first pitch strike percentage is UP from two years ago (62.6% compared to 59.8% two years ago).
His GB/FB ratio is exactly the same as it was two years ago (0.59).
His XBH% is almost exactly the same as it was two years ago (8.4% compared to 8.1% in 2014).
His BABIP is slightly lower than two years ago (.303 vs. .305 in 2014).
So what gives?
Two items.
1. His bb/9 is up. 2.8 compared to 2.4 in 2014.
2. His HR/FB percentage is way up. 12.7% this year, compared with 4.9% in 2014.
So he's walking more guys, and when he gives up fly balls, he's giving up more homers. And for a relief pitcher, a few more baserunners and a few more homers is going to impact the era considerably.
But many of his other important metrics are right in line with his great 2014 season. It's weird.
Does the extra walks and homers mean he's "cooked"? Or is that just bad luck, which can happen to anyone, especially relievers?
When i think of Henry Owens in the pen my mind immediately flashes to JP Howell,Along those lines, is there anyone willing to make the case that Henry Owens has some utility as a reliever?
gotta see if Wright and EdRo are healthy first. hopefully they are, and this all becomes a good problem to have. If, and it is a big if right now, it does come to this, personally, I'd like to see if Clay can go on one of his runs --not sure who would be best fit for bullpen, but would think either Pomeranz or EdRo.After Clay's strong outing tonight, there was talk in the game thread about which starter might go to the pen, with Wright due to come back.
Our starters are on a run right now,so I think it's paramount not to disturb their rhythm. Right now, Price and Porcello are locks, and I feel like both Clay and Pomerantz are turning a corner of effectiveness, and should be left in the rotation unless/until that changes. That leaves Wright and Rodriguez, both of whom have had their progress interrupted by minor injuries. Sure, we could go a turn with a 6 man rotation, but in the end, I'm thinking that Rodriguez might be the guy whose stuff could prove most useful in relief over the next month.
I don't see that he's had any experience in the role, which would be the first concern.
Can anyone tell me why I'm wrong about this? It'd only be temporary, with a return to the rotation next spring, at the latest. Our bullpen needs a shot in the arm, or more literally, another good arm to allow others to slot in more effectively. I feel EdRo might be the best candidate.
It has to be EdRod to the pen but not due to him being the better fit in the bullpen.....it's because of our 6 starters he is the weak link. Clay and Drew have been lights out.....neither are coming out of the rotation.gotta see if Wright and EdRo are healthy first. hopefully they are, and this all becomes a good problem to have. If, and it is a big if right now, it does come to this, personally, I'd like to see if Clay can go on one of his runs --not sure who would be best fit for bullpen, but would think either Pomeranz or EdRo.
After Clay's strong outing tonight, there was talk in the game thread about which starter might go to the pen, with Wright due to come back.
Our starters are on a run right now,so I think it's paramount not to disturb their rhythm. Right now, Price and Porcello are locks, and I feel like both Clay and Pomerantz are turning a corner of effectiveness, and should be left in the rotation unless/until that changes. That leaves Wright and Rodriguez, both of whom have had their progress interrupted by minor injuries. Sure, we could go a turn with a 6 man rotation, but in the end, I'm thinking that Rodriguez might be the guy whose stuff could prove most useful in relief over the next month.
I don't see that he's had any experience in the role, which would be the first concern.
Can anyone tell me why I'm wrong about this? It'd only be temporary, with a return to the rotation next spring, at the latest. Our bullpen needs a shot in the arm, or more literally, another good arm to allow others to slot in more effectively. I feel EdRo might be the best candidate.
It is based on much more than that. There are now corrected mechanics to go along with those results along with a history of being a "streaky" pitcher. If Buchholz isn't making his next start I just may go apeshit. At worst you can go 6-man for a start or two as we don't have the normal day off so this wouldn't really affect our starters routine.I think it's an open question whether Rodriguez even can come out of the bullpen. If he hasn't done it before, how can we be sure he can alter his routine to get warmed up in a hurry?
If he can, I'm all for it, but the notion of Buchholz going back to the rotation is based on three starts that total 16.2 innings. I don't remotely think it's a given that he gets to keep his rotation spot.
Neither of which are true if you look at the PF/X data (courtesy of @Jnai).I think we should temper our optimism about Clay a little bit and I would personally lean towards putting him back in the pen in a hi lev role. He has earned that much. But even though he was very good against Tampa, that is a terrible lineup and to my eyes Clay appeared to fade quite a bit from the 5th inning on, even though the results were good. He was wild in the zone and velo seemed to drop a fair bit. I think Edro still has the best ceiling of the three, and with no indication he can pitch out of the pen, should be a lock for the rotation if healthy. I would lean towards leaving Pom in there over Clay rest of the way as well, though I admit that's a closer call... as mentioned before, I would expect to see both of them in the pen and hopefully able to make some hi lev appearances if we are in the playoffs.
They have an off-day next Thursday and another the Thursday after that. After the next turn through, going to a 6-man rotation is going to result in guys getting 6 days off between starts rather than the customary 4 (and occasional 5). With things going so well, it probably wouldn't be a good idea to mess with guys routines at all. Until things are locked up for October, I don't want to see them mess with what Porcello, Price, or Pomeranz have going, at the very least.It is based on much more than that. There are now corrected mechanics to go along with those results along with a history of being a "streaky" pitcher. If Buchholz isn't making his next start I just may go apeshit. At worst you can go 6-man for a start or two as we don't have the normal day off so this wouldn't really affect our starters routine.
Thanks for this, can't see the latter on mobile but will try to view when I get home. Was going from my real time observations only. Starting with the pitch Kiermairer hit for a double (which was undeniably a mistake) it seemed there were a number of pretty hittable pitches the last few innings.
I think if the FB can go from "OMG HOW IS EVERYONE SLUGGING 1.500 OFF OF IT?" to "average" he can at least maintain above league-average results. His secondary peripherals (ex: wOBA versus CH and CU) early in the season were actually in line with his career averages -- it's just that his fastball was getting so absolutely rocked it didn't matter. Now that the FB seems to be generating weak contact (and even some whiffs, 5 out of 30 pitches last night), the secondary stuff can play up and hitters can't sit/tee off on heat. I don't know if it's arm slot (it's slightly higher by PF/X, but not outrageously so, so I don't know what to make of the media reports) or that working out of only the stretch helps the command, but the last couple starts have given hope that it's not fluky BABIP or something.Thanks for this, can't see the latter on mobile but will try to view when I get home. Was going from my real time observations only. Starting with the pitch Kiermairer hit for a double (which was undeniably a mistake) it seemed there were a number of pretty hittable pitches the last few innings.
So do you think this represents a real performance change for Clay and he should be given a chance to keep going?