The Bullpen Thread

joe dokes

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I would argue that right now, 10 games is 1/4 of the season. That's a pretty big consideration to me.
That's a good way to look at it; maybe that's why I think this is a potentially tough spot until 9/1.
 

dbn

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Bullpen WPA for the AL contenders, listed by games back for best AL record, also NYY and TBR

0.0 Tex 1.31
0.5 Cle 3.28
2.5 Tor 1.99
3.0 Bos 0.20
5.0 Bal 1.08
6.0 Sea 1.24
7.5 Det 1.28

9.0 Nyy 5.90
19.5 Tam -1.68

Looks like Cleveland has made hay, while the Red Sox have lost ~1-2 games on the rest of the competition due to the pen.
 

grimshaw

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I would argue that right now, 10 games is 1/4 of the season. That's a pretty big consideration to me.
It's possible, I mean, none of us were thinking Tommy Layne's replacement would come in and lose two games for them right out of the shoot. It's really hard for a LOOGY to make that much of an impact either way.

But I'd be more on board if there were a definite upgrade down there, like if Kopech were in AAA or something. But there really isn't anyone obvious waiting in the wings. There isn't even a consensus on who should be up next. Even if Kelly is the guy, he's hardly a slam dunk improvement. Some arms look good, but it's doubtful they'd be thrown right into the fire either.
 

joe dokes

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It's possible, I mean, none of us were thinking Tommy Layne's replacement would come in and lose two games for them right out of the shoot. It's really hard for a LOOGY to make that much of an impact either way.

But I'd be more on board if there were a definite upgrade down there, like if Kopech were in AAA or something. But there really isn't anyone obvious waiting in the wings. There isn't even a consensus on who should be up next. Even if Kelly is the guy, he's hardly a slam dunk improvement. Some arms look good, but it's doubtful they'd be thrown right into the fire either.
Further illustrating the pickle the sox are in, if the guy that replaces, say, Tazawa on the roster is another mop up guy, then it doesn;t really make a difference. I dont know how the Sox see Kelly right now.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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What the Hell do you have to lose?
This is exactly why I would like to see Kelly promoted and given a shot as the 8th inning set up reliever. No one else has seized the role and so what do the Red Sox have to lose? They gave Barnes a chance, and he promptly walked two guys, forcing the Red Sox to turn to Kimbrel in the 8th. In other words, the problem is ongoing. The only thing we know at this point is that Tazawa is not the answer.
 

Maximus

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This is exactly why I would like to see Kelly promoted and given a shot as the 8th inning set up reliever. No one else has seized the role and so what do the Red Sox have to lose? They gave Barnes a chance, and he promptly walked two guys, forcing the Red Sox to turn to Kimbrel in the 8th. In other words, the problem is ongoing. The only thing we know at this point is that Tazawa is not the answer.
Kelly should have been brought up by now and been given the opportunity to pitch in the 7th.
 

BaseballJones

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Tazawa's velocity has stayed basically the same. Maybe down one mph.

His line drive rate is lower (29% down to 24%) than it was two years ago, when he put up a 2.86 era and was one of the better relievers in the game.

His K/9 numbers have never been higher than this year (10.2).

His strike percentage is a little lower than two years ago (65.6% down to 63.6%). His first pitch strike percentage is UP from two years ago (62.6% compared to 59.8% two years ago).

His GB/FB ratio is exactly the same as it was two years ago (0.59).

His XBH% is almost exactly the same as it was two years ago (8.4% compared to 8.1% in 2014).

His BABIP is slightly lower than two years ago (.303 vs. .305 in 2014).

So what gives?

Two items.

1. His bb/9 is up. 2.8 compared to 2.4 in 2014.
2. His HR/FB percentage is way up. 12.7% this year, compared with 4.9% in 2014.

So he's walking more guys, and when he gives up fly balls, he's giving up more homers. And for a relief pitcher, a few more baserunners and a few more homers is going to impact the era considerably.

But many of his other important metrics are right in line with his great 2014 season. It's weird.

Does the extra walks and homers mean he's "cooked"? Or is that just bad luck, which can happen to anyone, especially relievers?
 

FanSinceBoggs

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Two items.

1. His bb/9 is up. 2.8 compared to 2.4 in 2014.
2. His HR/FB percentage is way up. 12.7% this year, compared with 4.9% in 2014.

So he's walking more guys, and when he gives up fly balls, he's giving up more homers. And for a relief pitcher, a few more baserunners and a few more homers is going to impact the era considerably.

But many of his other important metrics are right in line with his great 2014 season. It's weird.

Does the extra walks and homers mean he's "cooked"? Or is that just bad luck, which can happen to anyone, especially relievers?
Great stuff, thanks.

(1) As you point out, he is giving up more HRs than ever before (1.74 HR/9). His fly ball percentage has increased, as well as his HR/FB percentage.
(2) Is it just me or do others perceive a recent dip in velocity based on the velocity chart?
(3) I would like to know the spin rate on his secondary stuff--his curve and split--but I don't know where to access this information. I presume it is possible that his secondary pitches are less effective, leading to more walks and more HRs.
(4) A decline in velocity and spin rate could explain the increase in HRs, but shouldn't this also be reflected in the strikeout ratio--it should be going down rather than up?
(5) If velocity and spin rate aren't the explanations for declining performance, could poor pitch location be the problem--a failure to consistently repeat his delivery/release point? This would certainly explain the walks and the increase in HRs (leaving pitches up in the zone, for example).
 

j44thor

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Joe Kelly with 2 more scoreless IP 4K's no BB. Think it is time to give him another shot.
No one clearly wants to pitch high lev innings on this team besides Kimbrell.
 

joe dokes

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Tazawa's velocity has stayed basically the same. Maybe down one mph.

[snip]

So he's walking more guys, and when he gives up fly balls, he's giving up more homers. And for a relief pitcher, a few more baserunners and a few more homers is going to impact the era considerably.

But many of his other important metrics are right in line with his great 2014 season. It's weird.

Does the extra walks and homers mean he's "cooked"? Or is that just bad luck, which can happen to anyone, especially relievers?

Thanks for posting real info. To my untrained eye, the HRs might be related to a less effective splitter. (I'm not nimble enough with pitch fx to figure that one out). He's either hanging them, or not throwing them out of concern for hanging them.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Joe Kelly with 2 more scoreless IP 4K's no BB. Think it is time to give him another shot.
No one clearly wants to pitch high lev innings on this team besides Kimbrell.
I just don't see the downside in this. He's been a strong reliever in the bigs before and his sample size this year as one is like an inning.

Nothing to lose when you look at who they are throwing out there now.
 

YTF

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With each passing day it becomes a bit more baffling. Granted Kelly has had his struggles this season, but he's been the good soldier, he's accepted the role that's been given to him and is succeeding. There is a clear need for that role at the big league level AND it's not like there should be a concern about him facing MLB hitters for the first time. What more are they looking for out of the guy? Also should he fail, don't you want to see that sooner rather than later?
 

nothumb

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I wonder if they think he is wild either in or out of the zone in AAA but his stuff is just so overpowering he gets away with it? They may be looking for him to demonstrate some gains that don't show in the box score.

Or maybe they are just trying to limit other teams' opportunities to see him against ML hitters before the postseason. Which seems a little weird given there is plenty of film on him, but if he has changed something, maybe they are trying to hold him back as long as possible.

Hard to imagine that it's just about roster / DL management.
 

Drek717

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Along those lines, is there anyone willing to make the case that Henry Owens has some utility as a reliever?
Absolutely. In fact, I'd point to yesterday's start as the very proof of that fact.

Through the first two innings the Tigers didn't put a ball in play. This while Owens was getting a bit squeezed by the ump. That was a product of just how effective his off-speed stuff is at the ML level, but his fastball gets drilled. It gets especially drilled when he transitions from the windup to the stretch because, as he doesn't seem to shift well
Along those lines, is there anyone willing to make the case that Henry Owens has some utility as a reliever?
I definitely still would, and I'd point to the start on Sunday as a clear demonstration of that.

He has control issues, but then so does most of the bullpen to some degree (and most starters who turn into relievers). His changeup, curve, and slider all play well at the ML level. His glaring flaw is that his high 80's, poorly controlled fastball can't hold up more than once through a lineup. When Matt Barnes was bouncing up and down as a spot starter/reliever he didn't have a single pitch that rated well by PitchF/X, Owens has three, just not the fastball. We saw on Sunday that he can strike out quality ML hitters with those three offerings, just not multiple times through a lineup.

Also, on Sunday we saw what happens when guys get on base. His 2016 sample isn't too big but at the mL level there is a minor split against him with guys on base. In 2015 it was a massive split though. And this correlates with observations that once he gets guys on base and switches from wind up to stretch he loses feel and starts hanging his breaking stuff.

Look at his situational splits. Pitches 1-25 he has a tOPS of 75. Then it explodes to 113 for 26-50 and 119 from 51-75. Batters' first PA against him has a tOPS of 90, the second 88, the third 124.

Meanwhile his high leverage situations tOPS is 87, his low leverage tOPS is 76, but his medium leverage tOPS is 125. People see him multiple times and they figure out that the fastball is nothing to be concerned about. That leads to guys getting on base. They get on base, he has to change mechanics, then he starts hanging breaking balls and gets drilled, leading to medium leverage situations turning into crooked numbers on the score board.

Lastly, his fastball in 2015 peaked at 93.4 mph by PitchF/X. His velo peak in 2016 has been 92.0 mph. He can get to the low 90's, just not consistently. As a reliever he can just throw what he's got for short bursts and live at least in the low 90's, and if he sees anything more than (like Barnes and Tazawa did) so much the better.

An Andrew Miller style program where he sticks with one delivery and can just hit his peak velocity consistently over one or two innings with a move to the bullpen could be exactly the changes Owens needs to make his fastball more respectable and his breaking pitches more consistent. At that point he could potentially be a very good reliever.
 

Harry Hooper

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With each passing day it becomes a bit more baffling. Granted Kelly has had his struggles this season, but he's been the good soldier, he's accepted the role that's been given to him and is succeeding. There is a clear need for that role at the big league level AND it's not like there should be a concern about him facing MLB hitters for the first time. What more are they looking for out of the guy? Also should he fail, don't you want to see that sooner rather than later?
If Kelly is not hitting the mitt consistently in AAA but getting those hitters out, there's little reason to bring him up yet.
 

pokey_reese

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If Kelly is not hitting the mitt consistently in AAA but getting those hitters out, there's little reason to bring him up yet.
I haven't watched him down there, but based on the numbers, it's very hard to believe that his command/control is that bad. While walks aren't a perfect proxy, I think that we can all agree that they are correlated to those skills, and he has demonstrated by a HUGE margin the lowest walk rate of his career, at any level, in AAA this year (over 32 innings). For his career in the majors, he has walked about 9% of batters faced, in the majors this year he was at 15.5%, and in AAA this year he is at 4%. He also has the highest strikeout rate of his career in the minors right now.

Given the way that the bullpen has been performing, there has to be something going on either behind the scenes or with roster management concerns, because it's hard to believe he doesn't deserve a shot with the big club right now.
 

joe dokes

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I haven't watched him down there, but based on the numbers, it's very hard to believe that his command/control is that bad. While walks aren't a perfect proxy, I think that we can all agree that they are correlated to those skills, and he has demonstrated by a HUGE margin the lowest walk rate of his career, at any level, in AAA this year (over 32 innings). For his career in the majors, he has walked about 9% of batters faced, in the majors this year he was at 15.5%, and in AAA this year he is at 4%. He also has the highest strikeout rate of his career in the minors right now.

Given the way that the bullpen has been performing, there has to be something going on either behind the scenes or with roster management concerns, because it's hard to believe he doesn't deserve a shot with the big club right now.
It does seem odd. The two most likely replaceable parts are Tazawa and Hembree, with Tazawa being the more obvious one right now. But as we've discussed, if he insists that he isn't hurt, DLing him is out. That leaves the hope of Kelly (in the shadow of his last time up) vs. the devil-you-know of Hembree.
 

YTF

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5 times in his last 11 appearances Taz has given up 2 or more earned runs. 4 out of his last 5. These aren't inherited runners, but runners that he allowed on base who've scored. He's roughly a month back from being DLed for shoulder impingement, but he's had enough appearances since then to discount him being rusty. He's only signed through this season. If he's not willing to take a DL stint is there much to lose at this stage by DFA him? I get that you don't want to jump the gun, but at this point the Sox don't have many bullets left in the chamber. Perhaps if a low leverage situation presents itself against Tampa it would be a good spot to get him in with a short leash and and see if he implodes again. The clock is ticking and I'm guessing there are guys clearing waivers who are better. This thing needs to get figured out before the 31st to get someone on the post season roster.
 

joe dokes

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5 times in his last 11 appearances Taz has given up 2 or more earned runs. 4 out of his last 5. These aren't inherited runners, but runners that he allowed on base who've scored. He's roughly a month back from being DLed for shoulder impingement, but he's had enough appearances since then to discount him being rusty. He's only signed through this season. If he's not willing to take a DL stint is there much to lose at this stage by DFA him? I get that you don't want to jump the gun, but at this point the Sox don't have many bullets left in the chamber. Perhaps if a low leverage situation presents itself against Tampa (like maybe last night in the ninth) would be a good spot to get him in with a short leash and and see if he implodes again. The clock is ticking and I'm guessing there are guys clearing waivers who are better. This thing needs to get figured out before the 31st to get someone on the post season roster.

I dont think the post season roster is a problem anyomore. IIRC, as of this year (or last) anyone on the 40 man (or DL) as of 8/31 is eligible. Still looking for where I got that. I think MLB wanted to stop the KRod shenanigans.


EDIT:
Here's one:
http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/109921/full-primer-on-playoff-roster-eligibility


NEW YORK -- Here are the official postseason eligibility rules from MLB:

(a) PLAYERS ELIGIBLE.

(1) Major League Roster Players. To be eligible to play for a Major League Club in a Wild Card Game, Division Series, League Championship Series, or the World Series, a player must

(A) have been on a Major League Active, Disabled, Bereavement / Family Medical Emergency, Paternity, Suspended or Military List of such Major League Club as of Midnight Eastern Time on August 31, or on such date be under control, but on optional assignment, or on assignment from another Major League organization and not yet reported; and(B) have remained reserved to such Major League Club (at the Major or Minor League levels) through the beginning of the applicable post-season series, unless the player is replacing an injured player pursuant to Rule 40(a)(3).
 
Last edited:

Lose Remerswaal

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Might as well quote the original time that rule was invoked (or at least the most famous time)

Francisco replaced right-hander Steve Green, who initially was placed on the DL on March 11, while recovering from off-season Tommy John surgery. Steve was later transferred to the 60-day DL on April 5. The rules allow a club to replace an injured pitcher eligible for postseason with another pitcher, or a position player to do the same. Green's spot was simply replaced by Francisco, who was eligible because on August 31 he was on the 40-man roster.
The K-Rod Exemption
 

YTF

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I believe you're right. My point being if it's not Kelly or anyone else currently with the Sox that is on or can be moved to the 40 man he needs to be on that roster by the 31st which is believe it or not 8 days from today. .
 

joe dokes

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I believe you're right. My point being if it's not Kelly or anyone else currently with the Sox that is on or can be moved to the 40 man he needs to be on that roster by the 31st which is believe it or not 8 days from today. .

Gotcha. Moving someone onto the 40 (or into the organization AND onto the 40) would have to happen by 8/31 to be playoff eligible.
 

Rasputin

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If I can count right, we have an open slot on the 40 man just waiting for either Papelbon or Moncada and frankly, we could DFA Noe Ramirez or Fernando Abad without doing much--if any--damage to the quality of the roster.
 

czar

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If I can count right, we have an open slot on the 40 man just waiting for either Papelbon or Moncada and frankly, we could DFA Noe Ramirez or Fernando Abad without doing much--if any--damage to the quality of the roster.
Cuevas and Jerez also seem fungible. I don't think opening up 40-man roster spots prior to 8/31 is an issue.
 

nvalvo

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Tazawa's velocity has stayed basically the same. Maybe down one mph.

His line drive rate is lower (29% down to 24%) than it was two years ago, when he put up a 2.86 era and was one of the better relievers in the game.

His K/9 numbers have never been higher than this year (10.2).

His strike percentage is a little lower than two years ago (65.6% down to 63.6%). His first pitch strike percentage is UP from two years ago (62.6% compared to 59.8% two years ago).

His GB/FB ratio is exactly the same as it was two years ago (0.59).

His XBH% is almost exactly the same as it was two years ago (8.4% compared to 8.1% in 2014).

His BABIP is slightly lower than two years ago (.303 vs. .305 in 2014).

So what gives?

Two items.

1. His bb/9 is up. 2.8 compared to 2.4 in 2014.
2. His HR/FB percentage is way up. 12.7% this year, compared with 4.9% in 2014.

So he's walking more guys, and when he gives up fly balls, he's giving up more homers. And for a relief pitcher, a few more baserunners and a few more homers is going to impact the era considerably.

But many of his other important metrics are right in line with his great 2014 season. It's weird.

Does the extra walks and homers mean he's "cooked"? Or is that just bad luck, which can happen to anyone, especially relievers?
I think Taz might be another one for the pile — along with Price, Archer, Pineda, Stroman, Gray, Shields, Keuchel, and a bunch of others — of pitchers victimized by the (alleged) newly lively ball. There are a ton of guys out there with peripherals that don't quite add up to their lines, because of HR rates that look flukey to us.

The league-wide HR/FB, 2010-2016: 9.4, 9.7, 11.3, 10.5, 9.5, 11.4, 13.0.

Price is leading the league in innings pitched! His K/9 is over 9! His walk rate is under 2! But his ERA is a pedestrian 4.00 because of a 12.8% HR/FB, which is at once way higher than his career norms and below league average this season.
 

PudgeFIST

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Along those lines, is there anyone willing to make the case that Henry Owens has some utility as a reliever?
When i think of Henry Owens in the pen my mind immediately flashes to JP Howell,
who has had a pretty long career at this point. The soft tossing lefty can work in the AL east.
if he can manage better control.
 

Stanley Steamer

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After Clay's strong outing tonight, there was talk in the game thread about which starter might go to the pen, with Wright due to come back.
Our starters are on a run right now,so I think it's paramount not to disturb their rhythm. Right now, Price and Porcello are locks, and I feel like both Clay and Pomerantz are turning a corner of effectiveness, and should be left in the rotation unless/until that changes. That leaves Wright and Rodriguez, both of whom have had their progress interrupted by minor injuries. Sure, we could go a turn with a 6 man rotation, but in the end, I'm thinking that Rodriguez might be the guy whose stuff could prove most useful in relief over the next month.
I don't see that he's had any experience in the role, which would be the first concern.
Can anyone tell me why I'm wrong about this? It'd only be temporary, with a return to the rotation next spring, at the latest. Our bullpen needs a shot in the arm, or more literally, another good arm to allow others to slot in more effectively. I feel EdRo might be the best candidate.
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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After Clay's strong outing tonight, there was talk in the game thread about which starter might go to the pen, with Wright due to come back.
Our starters are on a run right now,so I think it's paramount not to disturb their rhythm. Right now, Price and Porcello are locks, and I feel like both Clay and Pomerantz are turning a corner of effectiveness, and should be left in the rotation unless/until that changes. That leaves Wright and Rodriguez, both of whom have had their progress interrupted by minor injuries. Sure, we could go a turn with a 6 man rotation, but in the end, I'm thinking that Rodriguez might be the guy whose stuff could prove most useful in relief over the next month.
I don't see that he's had any experience in the role, which would be the first concern.
Can anyone tell me why I'm wrong about this? It'd only be temporary, with a return to the rotation next spring, at the latest. Our bullpen needs a shot in the arm, or more literally, another good arm to allow others to slot in more effectively. I feel EdRo might be the best candidate.
gotta see if Wright and EdRo are healthy first. hopefully they are, and this all becomes a good problem to have. If, and it is a big if right now, it does come to this, personally, I'd like to see if Clay can go on one of his runs --not sure who would be best fit for bullpen, but would think either Pomeranz or EdRo.
 

HomeRunBaker

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gotta see if Wright and EdRo are healthy first. hopefully they are, and this all becomes a good problem to have. If, and it is a big if right now, it does come to this, personally, I'd like to see if Clay can go on one of his runs --not sure who would be best fit for bullpen, but would think either Pomeranz or EdRo.
It has to be EdRod to the pen but not due to him being the better fit in the bullpen.....it's because of our 6 starters he is the weak link. Clay and Drew have been lights out.....neither are coming out of the rotation.
 

Rasputin

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I think it's an open question whether Rodriguez even can come out of the bullpen. If he hasn't done it before, how can we be sure he can alter his routine to get warmed up in a hurry?

If he can, I'm all for it, but the notion of Buchholz going back to the rotation is based on three starts that total 16.2 innings. I don't remotely think it's a given that he gets to keep his rotation spot.
 

joe dokes

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After Clay's strong outing tonight, there was talk in the game thread about which starter might go to the pen, with Wright due to come back.
Our starters are on a run right now,so I think it's paramount not to disturb their rhythm. Right now, Price and Porcello are locks, and I feel like both Clay and Pomerantz are turning a corner of effectiveness, and should be left in the rotation unless/until that changes. That leaves Wright and Rodriguez, both of whom have had their progress interrupted by minor injuries. Sure, we could go a turn with a 6 man rotation, but in the end, I'm thinking that Rodriguez might be the guy whose stuff could prove most useful in relief over the next month.
I don't see that he's had any experience in the role, which would be the first concern.
Can anyone tell me why I'm wrong about this? It'd only be temporary, with a return to the rotation next spring, at the latest. Our bullpen needs a shot in the arm, or more literally, another good arm to allow others to slot in more effectively. I feel EdRo might be the best candidate.

Its a nice problem to have, but let's see if we have it first.
 

nothumb

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I think we should temper our optimism about Clay a little bit and I would personally lean towards putting him back in the pen in a hi lev role. He has earned that much. But even though he was very good against Tampa, that is a terrible lineup and to my eyes Clay appeared to fade quite a bit from the 5th inning on, even though the results were good. He was wild in the zone and velo seemed to drop a fair bit. I think Edro still has the best ceiling of the three, and with no indication he can pitch out of the pen, should be a lock for the rotation if healthy. I would lean towards leaving Pom in there over Clay rest of the way as well, though I admit that's a closer call... as mentioned before, I would expect to see both of them in the pen and hopefully able to make some hi lev appearances if we are in the playoffs.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think it's an open question whether Rodriguez even can come out of the bullpen. If he hasn't done it before, how can we be sure he can alter his routine to get warmed up in a hurry?

If he can, I'm all for it, but the notion of Buchholz going back to the rotation is based on three starts that total 16.2 innings. I don't remotely think it's a given that he gets to keep his rotation spot.
It is based on much more than that. There are now corrected mechanics to go along with those results along with a history of being a "streaky" pitcher. If Buchholz isn't making his next start I just may go apeshit. At worst you can go 6-man for a start or two as we don't have the normal day off so this wouldn't really affect our starters routine.
 

SouthernBoSox

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For me this is as simple as replacement value. Is Buchholz to Wright a downgrade in the rotation? On paper it shouldn't be. Is Buchholz to Rodriguez a downgrade in the rotation a downgrade? On paper, again, it shouldn't be.

What about Tazawa to Buchholz in the pen? That represents a huge, potentially bullpen saving, upgrade. I think you stick the guy in a multiple inning set up role and see if he thrives. If its a close game in the 7th with lefties and righties up, stick him in there. If he does well give him the 8th.

I just think the potential upgrade he could be in the bullpen exceeds the slight upgrade (maybe) he fills in the rotation.
 

czar

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I think we should temper our optimism about Clay a little bit and I would personally lean towards putting him back in the pen in a hi lev role. He has earned that much. But even though he was very good against Tampa, that is a terrible lineup and to my eyes Clay appeared to fade quite a bit from the 5th inning on, even though the results were good. He was wild in the zone and velo seemed to drop a fair bit. I think Edro still has the best ceiling of the three, and with no indication he can pitch out of the pen, should be a lock for the rotation if healthy. I would lean towards leaving Pom in there over Clay rest of the way as well, though I admit that's a closer call... as mentioned before, I would expect to see both of them in the pen and hopefully able to make some hi lev appearances if we are in the playoffs.
Neither of which are true if you look at the PF/X data (courtesy of @Jnai).

Velocity:



Location (courtesy of @SoxScout)

 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It is based on much more than that. There are now corrected mechanics to go along with those results along with a history of being a "streaky" pitcher. If Buchholz isn't making his next start I just may go apeshit. At worst you can go 6-man for a start or two as we don't have the normal day off so this wouldn't really affect our starters routine.
They have an off-day next Thursday and another the Thursday after that. After the next turn through, going to a 6-man rotation is going to result in guys getting 6 days off between starts rather than the customary 4 (and occasional 5). With things going so well, it probably wouldn't be a good idea to mess with guys routines at all. Until things are locked up for October, I don't want to see them mess with what Porcello, Price, or Pomeranz have going, at the very least.

Moving Buchholz back to the pen isn't the end of the world, especially if he can continue his very good pitching in high leverage late inning situations. The pen is the weak point of the team right now. Adding a guy who's pitching well and can lock down the eighth inning (and maybe the 7th since he's a bit stretched out now) 2-3 times a week is huge. Arguably bigger than giving each starter an extra day off each week.
 

nothumb

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Neither of which are true if you look at the PF/X data (courtesy of @Jnai).

Velocity:



Location (courtesy of @SoxScout)

Thanks for this, can't see the latter on mobile but will try to view when I get home. Was going from my real time observations only. Starting with the pitch Kiermairer hit for a double (which was undeniably a mistake) it seemed there were a number of pretty hittable pitches the last few innings.

So do you think this represents a real performance change for Clay and he should be given a chance to keep going?
 

YTF

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Here's how the conversation should go, "Clay you've earn a spot in the rotation, but at the moment there isn't a spot available. You've done everything asked of you and we need to ask one more thing. You understand what the situation is with the bullpen as well as anyone. There isn't a lot out there right now and while slotting you back into the rotaion has worked as well as we could have hoped, the pen got weaker. Right now we believe the place that you might be able to help out the team best is if you can help solidify the pen. We think you could be that lock down guy in the eighth and also we see you as the guy who is best prepared to give us meaningful multiple inning stints. This is where you can really help the team the most. At this point in the season we don't have time to try to see if Rodriquez can make that adjustment. You've proved that you can and it hasn't gone unnoticed.
 

czar

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Thanks for this, can't see the latter on mobile but will try to view when I get home. Was going from my real time observations only. Starting with the pitch Kiermairer hit for a double (which was undeniably a mistake) it seemed there were a number of pretty hittable pitches the last few innings.

So do you think this represents a real performance change for Clay and he should be given a chance to keep going?
I think if the FB can go from "OMG HOW IS EVERYONE SLUGGING 1.500 OFF OF IT?" to "average" he can at least maintain above league-average results. His secondary peripherals (ex: wOBA versus CH and CU) early in the season were actually in line with his career averages -- it's just that his fastball was getting so absolutely rocked it didn't matter. Now that the FB seems to be generating weak contact (and even some whiffs, 5 out of 30 pitches last night), the secondary stuff can play up and hitters can't sit/tee off on heat. I don't know if it's arm slot (it's slightly higher by PF/X, but not outrageously so, so I don't know what to make of the media reports) or that working out of only the stretch helps the command, but the last couple starts have given hope that it's not fluky BABIP or something.
 

czar

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BTW, re: Buchholz and the rotation, IMO, the most logical way forward seems to be to either give Wright a rehab start or option E-Rod for 10 days (seems less desirable) and give Buchholz another start or two. This serves a few purposes. One, it gives you a slightly longer look at "current Buchholz" who would be a playoff rotation member if he can pitch at all like "2015 Buchholz." Two, it prevents you from necessarily throwing Wright (who admitted even after his bullpen yesterday that his shoulder is still a little stiff) or E-Rod (who apparently told the Sox < 24 hours before his start Sun. that he couldn't go after saying "I'm fine" all along) right back into the fire and guarantees that you are starting fully healthy SP.

I think Buchholz to the 7th/8th is a perfectly viable option, but once you do that and he's there for a week or two you lose the ability to stretch him back out again if you want to use him as a SP again in 2016 (he's now been starting for two weeks and still has a pitch limit). You can alleviate that issue by having him be a long man who stays stretched out but then you risk not using a guy who is pitching fairly well in higher-leverage spots.
 

Harry Hooper

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In the month of August, Tampa's Team OPS is actually a bit higher than Boston's at .776 vs. .766


oops, meant for the Buchholz thread.
 
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grimshaw

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FWIW - Sam Kennedy was just on EEI and they asked him specifically about Pomeranz and limiting his innings. He said it was absolutely a consideration down the stretch. And then he plugged Buchholz right after it. Sounded to me like Pomeranz could be either heading to the pen or having a skipped start sooner rather than later. He also was asked about the ongoing investigation with MLB wrt to Drew's medical records and he said it was still going on but wouldn't elaborate.

Also - he said there was nothing brewing with Papelbon with either them or other teams. Quiet for now.
And he mentioned Koji as needing another 2-3 bullpen sessions. I'm assuming by then he wouldn't be able to rehab with minor league seasons winding down.

Edit: Clarifying that no one is claiming Pomeranz is hurt now, just that the records are still being looked at.
 
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