The Brooklyn Renaissance
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BigSoxFan said:
Agree at the macro level---too much money for too much age, too little production, and too little flexibility. They do have a noticeably higher talent level than Knicks, and they don't have their only significant asset looking at FA right now. Money-wise, I doubt either owner cares, but I'd say Nets are in an even worse place financially in terms of the commitments and quality of those commitments.
If Lopez is healthy (which there can be no question is a huge 'if') where would you put them in East next year---4th perhaps? Maybe 3rd best-case?
PedroKsBambino said:
Nets are in a much, much worse place financially, but better off talent wise. The Knicks lack flexibility for a season more. Beyond that, Amare, Bargnani, and Chandler all come off the books--over 40 million in salary. They'll struggle to get better next season, though I think there's a good chance they move Chandler to acquire some pieces that better fit the triangle, but two seasons from now they'll be in pretty good shape if Carmelo stays and they can spend that money on the right pieces.
The Nets, meanwhile, have to pay Joe Johnson and Deron Williams max money for 2 and 3 more years respectively. Lopez is also locked in for 16 a year for 2 more years. They're 2 years out from having any cap room at all, and even then we're talking 4 or 5 million dollars in space. They have to make this core work, and given what Williams has become, that's pretty unlikely.
As for next season, I expect both Kirilenko and Blatche to opt out and try to get some extra money. Pierce is probably not signing up to lose to Miami again, unless they hugely overpay,and Garnett will likely retire, and Shaun Livingston's going to be a popular free agent. As repeat tax payers they wont have an avenue to add players outside of a trade. They're looking at Williams, Johnson, ???, Teletovic, and Lopez as a starting 5, with Plumlee and Thornton off the bench. That may be a 4 seed in the East, but there are teams that will improve next year. Atlanta will get Horford back. Cleveland has cap space to address their hole at the 3 and won't be led by Mike Brown. Detroit apparently will be looking to move Monroe and Van Gundy will be able to get a lot more out of the Drummond/Smith combo, Toronto's young players are improving, Rose will be back in Chicago, and Washington has some space if they want to add some pieces. My guess is they lose a road playoff series as a 6-8 seed.
Grin&MartyBarret said:
I've not watched Deron Williams at all for the last several years before these playoffs, and it is sad to see what he has become. Funny thing is that he still looks like a spiffy player - you know, dribbling behind the back, executing spin moves, etc. - but there is no production from any of that. Plus, he just doesn't seem to want any part of the ball in clutch situations.
I know injuries had a bunch to do with this, but a lot of times, it looked like the Nets would be better off not having him on the floor.
I'm a little less pessimistic about them than 6-8 seed, largely because I think they'll end up keeping a couple of the role players and I see Johnson/Williams/Lopez as a mediocre core---enough to be credible in the sad Eastern Conference. But not, I fully agree, enough to do anything interesting.
Williams seems like a guy who needs a coach who pumps him up; no idea if Kidd is capable of that or not.
The 2016 and 2017 1st round picks are looking like very good assets right now
Williams seems like a guy who needs a coach who pumps him up; no idea if Kidd is capable of that or not.
The 2016 and 2017 1st round picks are looking like very good assets right now
wade boggs chicken dinner said:
The Jason Kidd choice was ridiculous. But I sort of disagree with the PP point -- I thought, if anything, the Nets were too unselfish at the end of the game. Johnson was insane (until he wasn't), didn't understand PP getting a first option look and then Livingston on the post up.
Grin&MartyBarret said:
Yep, agree with all this. And Livingston isn't getting enough attention for how well he played. People are killing Williams, and rightly so -- Livingston lacks an outside shot, too, but otherwise was Brooklyn's most consistent player and his length was really helpful defensively.
p.s.: when did "height" translate into length?
What is the best case scenario for the Nets (and thus, the worst case scenario for the Celtics)?HomeRunBaker said:
Eddie Jurak said:
Probably that DWill's struggles are mostly physical; surgery on his ankles fixes things; KG retires; and the Nets figure out how to play with DWill, JJ, Lopez; they re-sign PP for one year lots of money (who better are they going to get) and PP becomes the scorer on the second unit.
If DWill can get back to being an All-Star and they figure out how to play with each other, then they have as much talent as anybody.
However, that's a long long shot.
The other bad scenario for the C's is that King manages to trade DWill to Houston for real assets; they get under the salary cap in 2015 or so, and they keep being stuck as a above-average but non-title contender so their picks are in the 20s.
I'm reading that Blatche is opting out and will become an unrestricted FA. Livingston is another UFA, along with Pierce. AK-47 and Alan Anderson have player options. It will be an interesting Summer in Brooklyn, I think.
One of the nice things is that Brooklyn's 2016-2018 seasons will be impacted by not having cheap young players.
2010: (Derrick Favors; 2013/14 PER 19.01) Traded to Utah in the Deron Williams trade.
2011: (Enes Kanter; 2013/14 PER 15.70) Traded to Utah in the Deron Williams trade
2012: (Damian Lillard; 2013/14 PER 18.69) Traded to Portland in the Gerald Wallace trade
2013: Mason Plumlee
2014: traded to Celtics in Garnett & Pierce trade
2015: Hawks have swap rights from Joe Johnson trade
2016: traded to Celtics in Garnett & Pierce trade
2017: Celtics have swap rights from Garnett & Pierce trade
2018: traded to Celtics in Garnett & Pierce trade
It really is dumbfounding when you look at that list.
2010: (Derrick Favors; 2013/14 PER 19.01) Traded to Utah in the Deron Williams trade.
2011: (Enes Kanter; 2013/14 PER 15.70) Traded to Utah in the Deron Williams trade
2012: (Damian Lillard; 2013/14 PER 18.69) Traded to Portland in the Gerald Wallace trade
2013: Mason Plumlee
2014: traded to Celtics in Garnett & Pierce trade
2015: Hawks have swap rights from Joe Johnson trade
2016: traded to Celtics in Garnett & Pierce trade
2017: Celtics have swap rights from Garnett & Pierce trade
2018: traded to Celtics in Garnett & Pierce trade
It really is dumbfounding when you look at that list.
moly99 said:
In what year does Prokhorov sell out (to ski with models full-time? http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mikhail-prokhorov-partying-in-the-alps-with-models-tell-me-more/ ) or get thrown in jail by Putin and leave this mess to someon else?
I'm guessing 2016.
Honestly I would have sold the year they moved to Brooklyn, bought the Hornets/Pelicans and pocketed $300 million. A Russian playboy might enjoy winter-time New Orleans more than New York anyway.
It's kind of astonishing that both Lillard AND Favors were better than Deron this year for 1/3rd (Favors) to 1/6th (Lillard) of the price. (And even Enes Kanter wasn't much worse than Deron.) Billy King is an idiot.
It's kind of astonishing that both Lillard AND Favors were better than Deron this year for 1/3rd (Favors) to 1/6th (Lillard) of the price. (And even Enes Kanter wasn't much worse than Deron.) Billy King is an idiot.
Out of nowhere it looks like Kidd is gone, odd story just breaking:
Ken Berger @KBergCBS 42m
In a wholly unexpected turn of events, the Nets have given coach Jason Kidd permission to talk to the Bucks, league source confirms.
Kidd made a play to become the Nets' president and coach and lost, source says. Owner Mikhail Prokhorov, according to one account, said no.
Bucks new co-owner Mark Lasry is close with Kidd, serving at one time as his financial advisor.
Whatever happens in Milwaukee, difficult to imagine Kidd returning to Nets. "I don't see it," source said of bombshell turn of events.
Not clear what Kidd's end game is with Bucks, who have a coach, Larry Drew, and a GM, John Hammond, who just drafted Jabari Parker.
Ken Berger @KBergCBS 42m
In a wholly unexpected turn of events, the Nets have given coach Jason Kidd permission to talk to the Bucks, league source confirms.
Kidd made a play to become the Nets' president and coach and lost, source says. Owner Mikhail Prokhorov, according to one account, said no.
Bucks new co-owner Mark Lasry is close with Kidd, serving at one time as his financial advisor.
Whatever happens in Milwaukee, difficult to imagine Kidd returning to Nets. "I don't see it," source said of bombshell turn of events.
Not clear what Kidd's end game is with Bucks, who have a coach, Larry Drew, and a GM, John Hammond, who just drafted Jabari Parker.
RT @GeryWoelfel: No one will confirm this but I was told Kidd has been offered job as Bucks president
Adrian Wojnarowski @WojYahooNBA 3m
As for U-Turn back to Nets? Likely too late. "Russians are done with Kidd," one source tells Yahoo. Belief is that King is more forgiving.
this sounds bad without context
As for U-Turn back to Nets? Likely too late. "Russians are done with Kidd," one source tells Yahoo. Belief is that King is more forgiving.
this sounds bad without context
I really dont think he is smart or experienced enough to realize that. He really should have seen this coming when he let King go all in and give them a window of like 2 years, that was a giant mistake and I have to believe that he figured he could spend his way out of that problem. Intelligent owners just dont do what he did unless their team is really on the cusp.
However, if he is offered something that would represent a $1B profit over what he bought it for, then he is out of there regardless of what their future looks like.
However, if he is offered something that would represent a $1B profit over what he bought it for, then he is out of there regardless of what their future looks like.
Which is why Kidd is crazy like a fox to shoot his way out of Brooklyn and move to Milwaukee.jon abbey said:
$1B? He paid $225m iirc which included Barclays and the Clippers alone just sold for $2B!wutang112878 said:
He's looking at a 10-bagger with a sale.
That $2B number is really unprecedented. No NBA franchise has sold for anything close to that. I know LA is big market, but Washington, Sacramento, GoldenState and Milwaukee recently all sold and I think they were in the $450M - $550M range. Ego and carelessness are what drove that $2B price. In their most recent valuation Forbes had the Knicks $1.4B, Lakers $1.35B and Bulls $1.0B at the top, I think its really wishful thinking that this Clips price is going to be used as the new 'comp' for future franchise sales. Just look at Prokhorov, he was probably the most suspect new owner in the past 10 years but the NBA was desperate to sell the Nets at a reasonable price so they went to desperate measures. I just cant believe that in just a few short years suddenly there are like a handful of billionaires in the world now wants to own an NBA franchise which would justify a Nets $2B valuation.
Those Forbes numbers are both ultra conservative and old. I believe they had the Bucks around $350m and they sold for almost a 60% premium. I also don't feel the future television dollars are factored at all in those valuations plus the Nets deal include real estate assets with the package.wutang112878 said:
Brooklyn, being in New York, will carry a premium valuation similar to what the Clippers had. I would imagine that Chicago carries a similar premium.
I think the Clippers had a bonus built in due to the incompetence of the Lakers (could they displace them as LA's top team? Unlikely, but more possible now than ever before).
I think the Clippers had a bonus built in due to the incompetence of the Lakers (could they displace them as LA's top team? Unlikely, but more possible now than ever before).
Devizier said:
Wouldn't a similar discount apply in Brooklyn due to the Knicks' trainwreck?
As mentioned upthread, there's no way that Kidd could have thought in good faith that he would get the kind of control he wanted in Brooklyn. He must have looked around at the aging roster and the lack of draft picks, and decided to commit suicide-by-cop by making demands that he knew would be refused.
LOL, if they keep losing $144M annually they will soon have half a billion in loss carry forwards alone: http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/234029/Lakers-Bulls-Rockets-Celtics-Thunder-Lead-NBA-In-14-15-Profits
Meanwhile, the Lakers and Celtics discover that losing can also be profitable.
Meanwhile, the Lakers and Celtics discover that losing can also be profitable.
Kidd was pretty bad as a coach and they gave away their picks, mostly to us. Makes perfect to trade him for picks, even for 2nds, even if one of them is late (2019). Next year's pick should be in the top 40.soxhop411 said:
HomeRunBaker said:
You know what, I think I am totally off on the stadium valuation. I forgot the Knicks/Rangers/MSG is publicly traded, and I believe the assets you list on your balance sheet need to really hold up to the valuations and are audited. Last year Madison Square Garden itself was listed at $1,564M and in the most recent filing its $1,756M I really dont know enough about the NY real estate market to figure out how that comparable relates to the Barclays Center, is it 80% of the MSG value or 40%? Regardless, thats still going to represent a much higher portion of the Nets sale price than I had imagined.
I forget, was that stadium in the works before Drago bought it? And if so, how in the world did that thing sell for just $220whateveritwasM
Another Grantland article here, this specifically on Kidd and the Bucks-Nets deal. Fair number of tidbits and something for everyone's opinion - that Kidd is a slime and that he did do good things over the 2nd half of last season. Both of which strike me as true.
Also seems to confirm that that there will be no Kidd in the front office, which prompts three thoughts.. One, I get there's probably more upside in the Milwaukee job -- Brooklyn may have shot their load and now pay the price with extended mediocrity while the Bucks only have one way to go as some basis on which, in fact, to go up (some). in that sense this is a good lateral move to Milwaukee for Kidd. Two, call me a coastal elitist, but I think having to move from NY to Milwaukee is a major move down life-wise, granted the constant travel but still... Three, Kidd may not be in the front office, but....I suspect Hammond and Mowray are wearing their crowns uneasily with that snake around.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/grantland-exclusive-the-jason-kidd-mess-has-a-144-million-pricetag/
Also seems to confirm that that there will be no Kidd in the front office, which prompts three thoughts.. One, I get there's probably more upside in the Milwaukee job -- Brooklyn may have shot their load and now pay the price with extended mediocrity while the Bucks only have one way to go as some basis on which, in fact, to go up (some). in that sense this is a good lateral move to Milwaukee for Kidd. Two, call me a coastal elitist, but I think having to move from NY to Milwaukee is a major move down life-wise, granted the constant travel but still... Three, Kidd may not be in the front office, but....I suspect Hammond and Mowray are wearing their crowns uneasily with that snake around.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/grantland-exclusive-the-jason-kidd-mess-has-a-144-million-pricetag/
The Nets should thank their lucky Stars that Jason Kidd went all Jason Kidd on them.
Hollins is an upgrade.
Hollins is an upgrade.
Just to pile on, as well as to introduce analytics where none were needed, Hollins rates as one of the better head coaches we've seen recently.Sox and Rocks said:
No idea what the methodology is there, but Jim O'Brien scoring pretty high and Jason Kidd near the bottom certainly passes the 'quick eye test' for me!
This stat is by one of the two the main creators of RPM/xRAPM. Essentially, it works the same way as RPM/xRAPM, it just treats the coach as a 6th man on the court at all times in constructing its regression. Because the coach never leaves the game however, there's some projection done through standard player aging curves. Part of the reason Brooks rates so damn well is because his young players have far exceeded normal development, and his players who have played for other coaches have not played as well, and he's reaping the rewards of that.PedroKsBambino said:
There's a discussion of it here.
I would treat this very much as a "toy" obviously, rather than a real analytic tool, but it's fun all the same.
Apparently, the Nets are giving bojan-bogdanovic the mid-level exception for two years and a player's option, which is approximately 3/$10.5M.
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/07/07/report-nets-using-taxpayer-mid-level-exception-on-bojan-bogdanovic/
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/07/07/report-nets-using-taxpayer-mid-level-exception-on-bojan-bogdanovic/
