The Brad Stevens thread - More Clueless Than Alicia Silverstone

[benhogan]

Lazy? I thought I did a quick/informative highlight of Brad's head coaching career at Butler. No one had mentioned his Butler career at that point and I thought it might add something to accessing Brad's coaching ability. Comparing Bill Hodges/Larry Bird to Brad/Gordon Hayward season is a complete strawman argument. Brad set several NCAA records for coaching success at the NCAA level at a mid-major, did Bill Hodges? Brad competed with the heavyweights like Duke and Kentucky which were loaded with eventual 1st round picks.

I'm not discussing Brett Brown, this is the Brad Stevens thread. If you want to go into all the great things Brett Brown did as the 2nd Asst on San Antonio or all the amazing development with those high first-round Sixer picks, have at it on another thread. He has the NBA record with a 26 game losing streak and one of the worst Head Coaching records ever, let that sink in.

Players league? Brad Stevens has had 1 All-Star reserve player (Isiah Thomas) on his NBA teams.

The 14-15 team was the very definition of ragtag. No All-Stars. Lots of player turnover. Unhappy Rajon Rondo dealt in December. IT4 was picked up on Feb.19th at the trade deadline. IT4 was not starting in Phoenix and didn't start when he first joined. Jae Crowder was a mid-season pick up and was a deep reserve/D league player* at that point. Olynyk was in his 2nd season and is a limited player. Avery was a still-developing player that had yet to play a full season and was banged up most of the time.

*Jae wasn't really a D-League player, he was buried deep on the Mavs bench and played less than 10 min/game in 2014-15

 

[Sam Ray Not]

I'm loving all the old school Boston v. Philly trashtalk in the Port Cellar. When do London Sox and the Cs fans drop the gloves like O'Reilly and Dave "the Hammer" Schultz, or Larry and Dr. J?

 

[slamminsammya]

Lazy? I thought I did a quick/informative highlight of Brad's head coaching career at Butler. No one had mentioned his Butler career at that point and I thought it might add something to accessing Brad's coaching ability. Comparing Bill Hodges/Larry Bird to Brad/Gordon Hayward season is a complete strawman argument. Brad set several NCAA records for coaching success at the NCAA level at a mid-major, did Bill Hodges? Brad competed with the heavyweights like Duke and Kentucky which were loaded with eventual 1st round picks.

I'm not discussing Brett Brown, this is the Brad Stevens thread. If you want to go into all the great things Brett Brown did as the 2nd Asst on San Antonio or all the amazing development with those high first-round Sixer picks, have at it on another thread. He has the NBA record with a 26 game losing streak and one of the worst Head Coaching records ever, let that sink in.

Players league? Brad Stevens has had 1 All-Star reserve player (Isiah Thomas) on his NBA teams.

The 14-15 team was the very definition of ragtag. No All-Stars. Lots of player turnover. Unhappy Rajon Rondo dealt in December. IT4 was picked up on Feb.19th at the trade deadline. IT4 was not starting in Phoenix and didn't start when he first joined. Jae Crowder was a mid-season pick up and was a deep reserve/D league player at that point. Olynyk was in his 2nd season and is a limited player. Avery was a still-developing player that had yet to play a full season and was banged up most of the time.

Sorry, I didn't mean to single you out with the lazy comment. It was a good post.

I didn't compare Bill Hodges/Larry Bird to Brad/Gordon Hayward. The example was offered as support for the argument that college coaching is especially related to the question "How good are you at recruiting", which I don't think can really be considered "coaching" as such. To the extent that his success at Butler derived from finding some great talents in his recruiting I don't think we can count it when evaluating his ability as an NBA coach, because its simply not a part of his job to go out and find guys. Its Danny's job. And I am not sure its a strawman, but whatever.

And I also don't care about Brett Brown in particular. I was just using some of the discussion around him to illustrate the overall idea that evaluating NBA coaches is complicated. You are right, its about Brad Stevens. I think he's a good coach. But I am not as sold as a lot of people on this board.

You can frame the question of talent however you want. Saying they only had 1 all star in 14-15 is true. If we want to talk about the quality of players at a coach's disposal, players who are all stars is one way to frame the discussion. But my point remains that that roster had good players on it. I mean, this is all a bit circular because we can argue whether they were thriving in a new system or whether they were already good players.

I totally agree that Crowder and IT thrived under Stevens. And I don't want this to become an argument about the relative merits of the 2014-2015 Celtics. But that season both Crowder and IT performed about the same as they had been on a per minute basis as they had with their previous teams. They were already good players. Olynyk we can argue about into infinity on this board, but he was what he was at that point, which is a slightly above average big man.

Yes, it was impressive given the turnover. I am impressed with how he did that year. My only point is it wasn't Leicester City winning the EPL. If you took that roster and crunched the numbers based on how those players had played previously, you would get a borderline playoff team, which is exactly what happened.

I think its a good example of another thing that happens in these sorts of discussions, which is that people pretty much attribute the delta(expectations, real outcome) to the coach in every sport. In 2014-2015 I think a lot of fans expectations were a terrible team, and maybe it says more about what people expected of that roster than the coaching job Stevens did.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

I didn't say Brett brown is on a par with Stevens. I said he's been great for the sixers and think he deserves a chance with players.
Do I think Stevens is likely better? Yes. Would I pay to dump a coach who has been good and worked his ass off? No. In part due to loyalty and earning a chance.
Would I for free... Yeah probably and feel awful.

Tatum is better than expected and we don't know about fultz yet. I wouldn't make the trade now, because the Celtics would likely take Tatum 1 and sixers get ball or fultz.

As for the cost, it looks very much like it's the kings pick at this point. That pick has a real chance at being first overall.
But continue

Very likely, as in 14% chance? That’s assuming the lakers don’t finish in the 2-5 range this year, which as you have mentioned several times, is very early in the season which makes it hard to pass judgement.

 

[LondonSox]

I said a "real chance" it's very likely 14%, seems like a real chance?

edit: point being that price had a meaningful chance of being low. If the Celtics get like 2/3nd overall? Which is more likely, fine. But the data shows the first overall is the pick you want

 

[benhogan]

slamminsammy, in 2014-15 the Celtics had zero all-stars on that 'ragtag' team. IT4 didn't start for that Celtic team and came aboard with 1/3 of the season left. IT4 made it to the all-star team the following two seasons as a reserve. Leicester City/Nova-GTown were generational events, and I'm not saying the 2014-15 Celtics were anywhere close to that. Butler almost winning the National Championship twice was much closer to those events.

Brad's biggest "in-game" weakness, which you and I have agreed on in the past (game thread), is efficiency at the end of quarters (ie. 2 for 1s). Part of the problem is Terry Rozier, doesn't understand clock mgmt, along with Marcus Smart's fascination with taking the last shot. They both seem to end quarters with the ball in their hands. Brad rarely loses his cool, but one-time last year he went nuts on Rozier when Terry screwed up an end of the quarter.
Otherwise, Brad gets an A or A+ on every metric you put out there:
1) System, tactics, preparation.
2) In game: decisions, rotations, drawing up plays.
3) People skills - bringing the orders to the clients... Managing egos, motivating players, etc.
4) Good old coaching, player development, teaching technique.

ALSO I'm sure Danny values Brad's opinion on the talent they are thinking about acquiring via trades or the draft. I'd also say recruiting has some value at the NBA level when it comes to free agency (see Horford, Hayward, Green).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I'd argue that Stevens won game 7 of the Wizards series last year with a key third quarter coahcing move.

His key third quarter coaching move would have been rendered useless without Olynyk's game of his life. Was Brad the only coach capable of making an effective in-game adjustment?

I mentioned Kerr in my original post. If anything, he is penalized for the roster he has instead of receiving credit for managing it as well as he does.

Who would you prefer, Kerr or Walton? Is there any tangible evidence separating their coaching ability? Again, the discussion really has to do with the dropoff or gap (if there is any) between Stevens and a dozen of so other high quality coaches in this league. Personnel matters so a guy like Brett Brown, who is highly respected throughout the league, can't really be judged properly in a league where individual talent plays such an enormous factor in a coaches W-L record.

 

[DavidTai]

Who would you prefer, Kerr or Walton? Is there any tangible evidence separating their coaching ability? Again, the discussion really has to do with the dropoff or gap (if there is any) between Stevens and a dozen of so other high quality coaches in this league. Personnel matters so a guy like Brett Brown, who is highly respected throughout the league, can't really be judged properly in a league where individual talent plays such an enormous factor in a coaches W-L record.

I feel like watching what happens to IT4 and Crowder in Cleveland (and how they did pre-Boston) is going to be pretty interesting to see - especially considering to what lengths we had to cover for IT4's defensive weaknesses in the playoffs.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Man, SoSH is really elite at overthinking things.

Tatum > Fultz
Stevens and Popp > Rest of NBA coaches
Lonzo Ball < Every other shooter in the league.

 

[luckiestman]

Man, SoSH is really elite at overthinking things.

Tatum > Fultz
Stevens and Popp > Rest of NBA coaches
Lonzo Ball < Every other shooter in the league.

 

[Reverend]

Man, SoSH is really elite at overthinking things.

Tatum > Fultz
Stevens and Popp > Rest of NBA coaches
Lonzo Ball < Every other shooter in the league.

And Danny?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I feel like watching what happens to IT4 and Crowder in Cleveland (and how they did pre-Boston) is going to be pretty interesting to see - especially considering to what lengths we had to cover for IT4's defensive weaknesses in the playoffs.

I always expected both to put up significantly worse numbers in Cleveland due to their reduced roles in the offense. I'm not sure that has anything to do with a coach getting more out of them aside from offering each more opportunities and touches......especially in the case of Crowder who is way down on the totem pole of offensive players in the Cavs lineup.

This isn't to argue that Lue isn't a much worse coach than Brad.....he absolutely is. I tried to defend him last year but some of his head scratching decisions in matching up down the stretch of games made me scratch my own head. He's in way over his head......having said that, he was a ring (in the same year D'Assholi was a nearly unanimous COY award winner) which sums up my case of a head coaches value in winning in this league. It's a star players league, not a star coaches.

 

[lexrageorge]

Some people in the stats community criticize Brad a lot for overtinkering with lineups, using too many and using ones that aren't successful. I don't necessarily agree but its another viewpoint.

After last night, I believe we can confidently say that "some people in the status community" really don't know what their talking about and can go suck it.

 

[slamminsammya]

Check out this quote from Brad on last night's game:

Jared Weiss‏Verified account @JaredWeissNBA
Asked Brad how crucial trying to get Curry and Thomspon in foul trouble was to their game plan: “Never talked about it once. I’m not going to pretend like I know what I’m doing…It was good."

7:55 PM - 16 Nov 2017

Haha!

 

[bankshot1]

I saw this quote from KI on his growing relationship with Coach Brad and thought it telling.

“I’m able to see the reads and what’s going to happen and he makes the play calls. We’re just continuously building that trust for one another, so it’s pretty easy.”


Irving has long lauded Stevens’s tactical decisions, and said the dialogue is essentially one-sided.

“Ain’t too much trading [ideas]; he’s the man, so for me I just try to soak up as much knowledge as possible,” Irving said. “Just being in the passenger’s seat, it’s like having a driving-school teacher. He’s driving you the whole time and he’s able to put you in the driving seat sometimes and you’re able to see the road. When you’re able to bounce ideas and have that type of connection, and it’s still developing, it’s pretty awesome.

To the extent the legend of Coach Brad spreads and from guy's with credentials like Irving can't be a bad thing.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/celtics/2017/11/18/cnotes/xkB5nZVaHJhWDphe8fiqDO/story.html?p1=Team_LeadArticle

 

[lovegtm]

To the extent the legend of Coach Brad spreads and from guy's with credentials like Irving can't be a bad thing.

Yeah, I get the impression that other players respect Kyrie quite highly because of his incredible skill level, so this can't hurt. At the same time, if Tatum and Brown stay healthy, the Celtics won't be in position to sign a free agent for a long, long time.

 

[Sprowl]

“Ain’t too much trading [ideas]; he’s the man, so for me I just try to soak up as much knowledge as possible,” Irving said. “Just being in the passenger’s seat, it’s like having a driving-school teacher. He’s driving you the whole time and he’s able to put you in the driving seat sometimes and you’re able to see the road. When you’re able to bounce ideas and have that type of connection, and it’s still developing, it’s pretty awesome.

To the extent the legend of Coach Brad spreads and from guy's with credentials like Irving can't be a bad thing.

The Legend of Brad the Driving School Teacher

 

[joe dokes]

Yeah, I get the impression that other players respect Kyrie quite highly because of his incredible skill level, so this can't hurt. At the same time, if Tatum and Brown stay healthy, the Celtics won't be in position to sign a free agent for a long, long time.

It's especially noteworthy because at least the plurality of out of town fans, and some in town fans, saw irving as a guy who shot his way out of town because he wanted to be the Man, and was therefore probably not the most coachable guy around. He may be the Man here, but he's not stubbornly doing it his way. I'm sure it happens in other places with other coaches, but it's pretty cool to see a player who is already a star react this way.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

"inside story" on Brad's hiring here: https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2017/11/18/celtics-co-owner-inside-story-hiring-brad-stevens. Most of it has been published in bits and pieces elsewhere but there is one tidbit I'd not heard before:

Pagliuca said Stevens voiced his love for the team and its extensive basketball history, as well as his confidence that he could make a difference for the organization. But there was also a specific stipulation should he accept the job.

“The one thing he wouldn’t do going forward was try to lose a game, or you know, ‘tank,'” Pagliuca said. “So if we were going to have a strategy, maybe like ‘The Process,’ he was not going to participate in that.”

But the group reassured Stevens he would not be put in such position in Boston.

“We said, ‘No, we’re always trying to win. We’re going to try to win on the fly and rebuild on the fly,'” Pagliuca said. “Who knows if we can do that or not, but that was certainly going to be the strategy. Tanking is different than developing talent. We try to keep all the good talent.”​

 

[Eddie Jurak]

“The one thing he wouldn’t do going forward was try to lose a game, or you know, ‘tank,'” Pagliuca said. “So if we were going to have a strategy, maybe like ‘The Process,’ he was not going to participate in that.”

What exactly did Stevens mean by this?

"If your plan is to tank, you can find a different coach."

OR

"If you have a 'process' that's your business, I'm coaching to win every game, period. "

 

[HomeRunBaker]

What exactly did Stevens mean by this?

"If your plan is to tank, you can find a different coach."

OR

"If you have a 'process' that's your business, I'm coaching to win every game, period. "

I'm sure it was in reference to the organizations history of directing Doc to play kids like Gerald Green, Telfair and a few others despite them not earning those minutes which Doc has addressed in the past. In other words, "It's my team, don't tell me who to play in the games. If you're looking for a coach to micromanage then don't offer me a contract."

 

[Devizier]

more specifically the durant/oden tankfest in which pierce missed a large chunk of the season with hellenic flu

 

[Cesar Crespo]

What exactly did Stevens mean by this?

"If your plan is to tank, you can find a different coach."

OR

"If you have a 'process' that's your business, I'm coaching to win every game, period. "

The season Stevens joined, Pierce, KG and Rivers were moved for future draft picks and it looked like the Celtics would be in full tank mode that season to acquire a top pick to build the franchise around. Instead, they somehow won 26 games and ended up with Marcus Smart and then rejoined to playoff picture the following season... against the wishes of a lot of posters on this board.

 

[InstaFace]

With about a minute left in regulation, just after the Celtics had closed to within 1, there was a brief cut to Rick Carlisle flapping his arms with a panicked look on his face making the Kevin Bacon "Remain calm! All is well!" gesture.

Brad Stevens is the opposite of that.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Pop is the best coach of this era and perhaps all time. However, Stevens is the best coach in the NBA in 2017-18. He has one star player who, until he arrived in Boston, didn't play defense. He has another star player who most casual NBA fans consider not worth a max contract and average at best, yet the guy's elite skills are utilized to their fullest in Stevens' system.

Then he has a collection of young players and NBA rotation types who, in lesser skilled hands, would simply be using their minutes to argue for more playing time. Yet he has turned these guys into a cohesive unit who moves the ball extremely well and plays otherworldly defense.

You can have your stars league and even Pop this year. I will take Stevens all day, every day.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Then he has a collection of young players and NBA rotation types who, in lesser skilled hands, would simply be using their minutes to argue for more playing time. Yet he has turned these guys into a cohesive unit who moves the ball extremely well and plays otherworldly defense.

I agree with the sentiment but I do think you may be selling Brown and Tatum a little short here.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

I think previous seasons are better arguments for Stevens' coach prowess. I think this year is a better argument for Ainge's ability to pick underrated players.

 

[gryoung]

The Celts can put out a starting 5 that consists of players who were all top draft picks — one who was overall 1, two that were #3s, and two who were top 6.

Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

 

[InstaFace]

three that were #3s.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The Celts can put out a starting 5 that consists of players who were all top draft picks — one who was overall 1, two that were #3s, and two who were top 6.

Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Yeah, it isn't like this is Jordan Crawford and Jae Crowder we are winning with. Ainge has assembled a massive amount of not only elite talent but the type that can be molded into a winning team-first mentality by Stevens. Is Ainge still consulting with Niednagel? I know Pagliuca has information that other GMs/owners wouldn't with Kyrie and Tatum when they were at Duke so they knew what they were getting here and we've discussed Jaylen's intelligence and unique perspective. There was so much more to building this team than grabbing a bunch of talented guys.......there are similarities in how these guys approach their business every day. I don't think that happens or happened by accident.

 

[bankshot1]

The thing that I'm seeing, which I love, is that the '17 Celtics are rebounding. It drives me nuts as a fan, to see the other team get O-boards and then the easy 2 that so often accompany a put-back. And Ainge/Brad made the personnel changes/coaching to fix the problem So far this year this team hits the boards, (and lots of guys are getting board) and with the speed and athleticim of KI, Brown and Tatum the transition game has greatly benefitted. And in many ways it reminds me of the old Aurbach formula of tough defense, rebound, fast outlet pass, and push when you can and put pressure on the other team.

I love the way this team plays the game.

 

[cheech13]

Pop is the best coach of this era and perhaps all time. However, Stevens is the best coach in the NBA in 2017-18. He has one star player who, until he arrived in Boston, didn't play defense. He has another star player who most casual NBA fans consider not worth a max contract and average at best, yet the guy's elite skills are utilized to their fullest in Stevens' system.

Then he has a collection of young players and NBA rotation types who, in lesser skilled hands, would simply be using their minutes to argue for more playing time. Yet he has turned these guys into a cohesive unit who moves the ball extremely well and plays otherworldly defense.

You can have your stars league and even Pop this year. I will take Stevens all day, every day.

Is that in reference to Al Horford, because he was the best player on a 60-win Hawks team two years ago and they were coached by the guy who generally got most of the "best young coach in the league" accolades before Stevens rose to prominence.

 

[lexrageorge]

Pop is the best coach of this era and perhaps all time. However, Stevens is the best coach in the NBA in 2017-18. He has one star player who, until he arrived in Boston, didn't play defense. He has another star player who most casual NBA fans consider not worth a max contract and average at best, yet the guy's elite skills are utilized to their fullest in Stevens' system.

Then he has a collection of young players and NBA rotation types who, in lesser skilled hands, would simply be using their minutes to argue for more playing time. Yet he has turned these guys into a cohesive unit who moves the ball extremely well and plays otherworldly defense.

You can have your stars league and even Pop this year. I will take Stevens all day, every day.

Is that in reference to Al Horford, because he was the best player on a 60-win Hawks team two years ago and they were coached by the guy who generally got most of the "best young coach in the league" accolades before Stevens rose to prominence.

There's only 2 people that buy the "Horford is average" crap:

Lou Merloni, who has proven himself to know absolutely nothing about basketball. And the Clowns that run the Green Team Club Green, which proves that money doesn't buy one basketball knowledge.

He may be under the radar among most casual NBA fans. But I think even the casual fans think he's at least quite a bit better than average.

 

[slamminsammya]

There's only 2 people that buy the "Horford is average" crap:

Lou Merloni, who has proven himself to know absolutely nothing about basketball. And the Clowns that run the Green Team, which proves that money doesn't buy one basketball knowledge.

He may be under the radar among most casual NBA fans. But I think even the casual fans think he's at least quite a bit better than average.

What is the Green Team?

 

[Sam Ray Not]

he was the best player on a 60-win Hawks team.

Horford’s a great player (certainly well above “average”) but there’s no real evidence that he was the clear “best player” on that 2014-15 Hawks team. By both total minutes and on-off numbers, Millsap and Korver were slightly more impactful for them. (Millsap’s numbers are nearly identical, just slightly better across the board). At minimum I think it’s fair to consider Millsap-Korver-Horford their Big 3.

(Agreed on the overall point that Horford is much more than average, of course).

 

[lexrageorge]

What is the Green Team?

I should have said Club Green, the Celtics fan club. The Green Team are the cheerleaders; my bad.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Horford’s a great player (certainly well above “average”) but there’s no real evidence that he was the clear “best player” on that 2014-15 Hawks team. By both total minutes and on-off numbers, Millsap and Korver were slightly more impactful for them. (Millsap’s numbers are nearly identical, just slightly better across the board). At minimum I think it’s fair to consider Millsap-Korver-Horford their Big 3.

(Agreed on the overall point that Horford is much more than average, of course).

Just curious, and I realize you're just pulling up numbers here, but do you actually think Kyle Korver is the equivalent player of the other two? That, to me, is an obvious example of the numbers needing some scouting overlay. Kyle Kover is a very efficient player, but a guy who desperately depends on there being superior players around to create opps, too.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Just curious, and I realize you're just pulling up numbers here, but do you actually think Kyle Korver is the equivalent player of the other two? That, to me, is an obvious example of the numbers needing some scouting overlay. Kyle Kover is a very efficient player, but a guy who desperately depends on there being superior players around to create opps, too.

I think it's basically apples and oranges (and I'd hope that any good scout would say same), but if we're talking about just that season: KK was not just efficient but historically elite at shooting — .495 from three, .699 true shooting — in a league where perimeter shooting is king. I also think still that year he still had the combo of youth and length to be a fairly solid and versatile defender. Think poor man's Klay Thompson, at lower volume but higher efficiency.

The Hawks that year were +13.5 points better per 100 possessions with Korver on the court than on the bench. With Millsap: +5.3 points per 100. With Horford: +1.7. Based on that alone (along with the fact that Korver led the team in total minutes played), I have a hard time considering Horford the unquestioned "best player" in the context of that team, even if, yeah, independent of context, Horford is a better, much more complete player. And obviously, that margin has widened in recent years, since Horford is five years younger than KK and still in his prime, while KK's declining athleticism has turned him from "fairly solid" on that end to just plain bad.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I think it's basically apples and oranges (and I'd hope that any good scout would say same), but if we're talking about just that season: KK was not just efficient but historically elite at shooting — .495 from three, .699 true shooting — in a league where perimeter shooting is king. I also think still that year he still had the combo of youth and length to be a fairly solid and versatile defender. Think poor man's Klay Thompson, at lower volume but higher efficiency.

The Hawks that year were +13.5 points better per 100 possessions with Korver on the court than on the bench. With Millsap: +5.3 points per 100. With Horford: +1.7. Based on that alone (along with the fact that Korver led the team in total minutes played), I have a hard time considering Horford the unquestioned "best player" in the context of that team, even if, yeah, independent of context, Horford is a better, much more complete player. And obviously, that margin has widened in recent years, since Horford is five years younger than KK and still in his prime, while KK's declining athleticism has turned him from "fairly solid" on that end to just plain bad.

I strongly suspect that any good scout would tell you that Korver was a terrific role player that year, as he has been other years---and no more than that. That's probably why when all three were FAs within a year of each other and Korver got 1/3 the salary of the other two, which tells us pretty precisely what the actual scouts and the folks running teams, both scouting-inclined and analytically-inclined) think of these three. Yes, the ages differed a bit and sure, sometimes the scouts are wrong but even the analytically inclined teams didn't see anything like the value you describe.

I guess if you want to argue the entire league was wrong, that's your prerogative---I think it's a lot more likely that teams realize he's a specialized player with some real limitations and thus valuable only in a narrow role. That narrow role can be valuable when surrounded by just the right guys, and spotted just the right way (as he was for that 60 win Hawks team) but that is different than true talent level.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

I strongly suspect that any good scout would tell you that Korver was a terrific role player that year, as he has been other years---and no more than that. That's probably why when all three were FAs within a year of each other and Korver got 1/3 the salary of the other two, which tells us pretty precisely what the actual scouts and the folks running teams, both scouting-inclined and analytically-inclined) think of these three. Yes, the ages differed a bit and sure, sometimes the scouts are wrong but even the analytically inclined teams didn't see anything like the value you describe.

I guess if you want to argue the entire league was wrong, that's your prerogative---I think it's a lot more likely that teams realize he's a specialized player with some real limitations and thus valuable only in a narrow role. That narrow role can be valuable when surrounded by just the right guys, and spotted just the right way (as he was for that 60 win Hawks team) but that is different than true talent level.

All fair points, with the caveat that I'm not a fan of dividing players into neat categories of "role player" and "not a role player" when we're talking about guys who play similar minutes. A 6'-8" wing who can guard 2-3 positions, doesn't need the ball in his hands to kill you, and is one of the greatest three-point shooters of all time (volume + efficiency) is a crucial role in today's NBA, even if that guy does very little in the way of creating, passing, rebounding, or rim defending. Again, see Thompson, Klay. He was an ideal fit on that team, not easily replaced, and an integral part of the 60-win season.

Outside of the context that team, I agree that Horford is the better player by most standard definitions of better, so won't argue that GMs and scouts are "wrong." But the on-court impact of the two players for that specific team (again, in similar minutes) was what it was.

As far as their relative contracts: generally agreed, though I think you may be slightly underplaying the age gap when you say they differed "a bit." Five years difference is huge when you're talking a multi-year deal for guys aged 29-30 vs. 34-35 (the ages at which the players signed their current deals). In today's NBA, on a team in need of shooting, I think a 27-29 year old of Korver's size and (rather limited) skills could easily command $20-25M a year. Otto Porter pulled 4/$106.5M after flashing largely Korver-esque / "role player" skills last season (though he's expanded on those skills this season)

Either way, Millsap was sufficiently close to Horford as a player — similar skillset, slightly better traditional and advanced numbers, similar values of their next contract — where the assertion that Horford was that team's unquestioned best player seems a little strained. That was my only real point; sorry to belabor it. On topic: Brad Stevens is a witch.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I wouldn't characterize Thompson as a role player and think he's much better than Korver and thus that's not a useful comp.

Otto Porter is a better player than Korver, paid in part for upside Korver never had, and and in part because of his team's cap situation. Again, I just think you're materially overstating what Korver is based on a highly situational stat.

Anyway, this is all a tangent on Horford's prior team. I agree Milsap and Horford were close in value. Whether we agree quite how others rated for that Hawks team, Stevens has used Horford masterfully this year.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Anyway, this is all a tangent on Horford's prior team. I agree Millsap and Horford were close in value. Whether we agree quite how others rated for that Hawks team, Stevens has used Horford masterfully this year.

Agreed, and I'd also credit Horford himself for having (to date) his best year as a pro by far, at an age when some players start to decline slightly. Per 36: 15.7 pts on career-high .648 true shooting, 9.7 rebounds (best since his age 26 season), 5.1 assists, plus great, versatile D. You can make a case that he's been a top 10 NBA player. By RPM, he currently ranks #13, right behind LeBron and AD, and just ahead of PG13, Giannis and KD.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I wouldn't characterize Thompson as a role player and think he's much better than Korver and thus that's not a useful comp.

Otto Porter is a better player than Korver, paid in part for upside Korver never had, and and in part because of his team's cap situation. Again, I just think you're materially overstating what Korver is based on a highly situational stat.

Anyway, this is all a tangent on Horford's prior team. I agree Milsap and Horford were close in value. Whether we agree quite how others rated for that Hawks team, Stevens has used Horford masterfully this year.

This sums it up pretty good. Argue all you want about Millsap and Horford but Korver can't ever be included in that discussion......I'd have him 4th on that team with Teague at 3. A large part of what made Korver so effective there were those other 3 players and the role they allowed Korver to play. Klay and Korver do not even belong in the same sentence together.....Klay is an elite defender, Korver was passable on a good day.....Klay can initiate in spots and score in a number of ways while Korver is a one-dimensional all-time great shooter.

 

[joe dokes]

Korver will end up on the Spurs, where like Matt Bonner and Steve Kerr he will have 25 dnps, then make a pile of crucial 3s.

 

[Reardon's Beard]

# of games needed to reach 20 wins since Brad Stevens became the Celtics’ Head Coach in 2013-14

2013-14: 59
2014-15: 51
2015-16: 39
2016-17: 34
2017-18: 24

 

[InstaFace]

And if you regress those numbers linearly, it's easily shown that Brad Stevens will start the 2020-21 season with 20 wins just spotted to him like a handicap.

Ainge is a genius!

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Brad Stevens: Sideline Magician



Both clips are simply Brad getting the guys with the match-ups he wants into the space that he wants them in, but it's cool to see the breakdown of coaching in action.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

He's getting a new and completely unwanted opportunity to show his worth.


That means... bench:

• Greg Monroe
• Semi Ojeleye
• Abdel Nader
• Shane Larkin (minutes restriction)
• Kadeem Allen

(not sure if Jabari Bird is healthy)

 

[the moops]

That starting lineup is in all likelihood the worst any team has put out on the floor this year .Gross

 

[Swedgin]

That starting lineup is in all likelihood the worst any team has put out on the floor this year .Gross

The Hawks would like a word. Against the Bulls they started

Taurean Prince
John Collins
Dedmond
someone named Isaiah Taylor
Kent Bazemore