The bench thread
- Thread starter Yelling At Clouds
- Start date
I can see the “I︎ Swi
In all seriousness, a healthy, productive Swihart would be a great addition to the 25-man roster. I'm rooting hard for the guy.
There is zero chance that Blake isn't on the roster. He's either healthy and on the 25 to start the season, or injured and on the DL, but exposed to waivers isn't in the forecast.
I wholeheartedly concur. His ability to run well, switch hit and cover corner outfield positions, 1st base (and potentially other IF spots) AND catch makes him an incredibly valuable (not to mention, cost-effective) player.
If he's healthy, he's definitely on the roster. Cora's already extolled his versatility and his positive future impact to the 2018 team.
Could someone informed remind of his strong/weak sides as a switch-hitter. My memory says that he was a more consistent (higher average) hitter batting from the right side, but that poential power was greater from the left. Please contradict or confirm.
MLB stats only:
Left-handed: 292 PA .274/.325/.400/.725, 4 HR
Right-handed: 98 PA .259/.344/.329/.673, 1 HR
FWIW, his minor league splits show him a little better as a RHH, but the margin is pretty small: .269/.335/.411 as a RHH, .270/.328/.392 as a LHH.
If you leave out his disastrous 2017, however, the gap widens: .285/.343/.441 as RHH, .280/.337/.402 as LHH.
In general, he has shown more power from the right side, but is otherwise a pretty similar hitter from either side.
If you leave out his disastrous 2017, however, the gap widens: .285/.343/.441 as RHH, .280/.337/.402 as LHH.
In general, he has shown more power from the right side, but is otherwise a pretty similar hitter from either side.
Cora made a comment during his Sirius interview yesterday that he believes in giving his regulars plenty of rest during the season and he likes the deep, versatile bench he has. He also wants to limit the amount of pitches both Sale and Price throw in the spring and doesn’t want them throwing 97 in exhibition games. So far, I really like the philosophy he’s bringing to the table.
I'm not sure where Blake started before he switch hit. You'd think switch hitters would be natural lefties who learned the right side since about 70% of pitchers are RH throwers. But most switch hitters are right hand throwers which would suggest they are natural righties (although baseball people know a LHH, RHT is desirable so that may be part of early development). You have to be a pretty good switch hitter once you decide to go with it as a permanent approach to give up over 50% of your AB's from your natural side. But switching usually puts your dominant eye up front for the most AB's, so who knows. They are a dying breed.
It's encouraging seeing his numbers so close from each side.
Below, I've linked an article from Over The Monster that speculates on how the position player starts may be divvied up (with the caveat that it assumes a "perfect world" scenario where everyone remains healthy).
Here's the author's take on position-by-position starts:
C: Vazquez (110), Leon (35), Swihart (17)
1B: Moreland (80), Ramirez (70), Swihart (12)
2B: Pedroia (95), Nuñez (62), Marrero (5)
3B: Devers (135), Nuñez (27)
SS: Bogaerts (145), Nuñez (14), Marrero (3)
LF: Benintendi (130), Martinez (20), Swihart (12)
CF: Bradley (140), Benintendi (17), Betts (5)
RF: Betts (150), Martinez (12)
DH: Martinez (118), Ramirez (25), Nuñez (10), Swihart (9)
Which results in the following number of starts per player:
Vazquez: 110
Leon: 35
Swihart: 50
Moreland: 80
Ramirez: 95
Pedroia: 95
Nuñez: 113
Marrero: 8
Devers: 135
Bogaerts: 145
Benintendi: 147
Bradley: 140
Betts: 155
Martinez: 150
https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/3/7/17088134/red-sox-roster-playing-time-jd-martinez-blake-swihart-alex-cora
Here's the author's take on position-by-position starts:
C: Vazquez (110), Leon (35), Swihart (17)
1B: Moreland (80), Ramirez (70), Swihart (12)
2B: Pedroia (95), Nuñez (62), Marrero (5)
3B: Devers (135), Nuñez (27)
SS: Bogaerts (145), Nuñez (14), Marrero (3)
LF: Benintendi (130), Martinez (20), Swihart (12)
CF: Bradley (140), Benintendi (17), Betts (5)
RF: Betts (150), Martinez (12)
DH: Martinez (118), Ramirez (25), Nuñez (10), Swihart (9)
Which results in the following number of starts per player:
Vazquez: 110
Leon: 35
Swihart: 50
Moreland: 80
Ramirez: 95
Pedroia: 95
Nuñez: 113
Marrero: 8
Devers: 135
Bogaerts: 145
Benintendi: 147
Bradley: 140
Betts: 155
Martinez: 150
https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/3/7/17088134/red-sox-roster-playing-time-jd-martinez-blake-swihart-alex-cora
I hate to be nitpicky but how much credence should we give to estimates that expect there to be 162 available starts at DH for this team?
Puzzlingly, the Jays just released Ezequiel Carrera, a perfectly decent fourth-outfielder who hit RHP at a .358 wOBA last year (30th in MLB – min. 250 PAs). That mark is a little BABIP-inflated, but it would have been tops on our team outside of Nunez.
Our outfield is stacked, but Carrera's a capable left-fielder and might make more sense on this team than Holt, depending on the cost and how the catcher situation shakes out. OTOH, UZR says Nunez plays a good LF, and it seems they're open to JDM playing there too. If they're comfortable cycling through the DH to get Moreland and Hanley more at-bats, then this point's moot, but I'm hoping they'll take a more risk-averse approach and minimize JDM's time in left.
Moreland / Leon or Swihart / Carrera / Lin
Carrera's name came up a lot when I was looking at LHH with good production the other way (Gammons's preferred statistic when he was banging the drum for the Sox to sign Hosmer early this winter). Here's how he'd fit among the other LHH on our team (2017 stats):
Devers - .609 wOBA (37 PA)
Carrera - .441 (34 PA)
Bradley - .423 (68 PA)
Moreland - .413 (96 PA)
Holt - .367 (23 PA)
Benintendi - .254 (101 PA)
Leon - .175 (32 PA as LHH)
Our outfield is stacked, but Carrera's a capable left-fielder and might make more sense on this team than Holt, depending on the cost and how the catcher situation shakes out. OTOH, UZR says Nunez plays a good LF, and it seems they're open to JDM playing there too. If they're comfortable cycling through the DH to get Moreland and Hanley more at-bats, then this point's moot, but I'm hoping they'll take a more risk-averse approach and minimize JDM's time in left.
Moreland / Leon or Swihart / Carrera / Lin
Carrera's name came up a lot when I was looking at LHH with good production the other way (Gammons's preferred statistic when he was banging the drum for the Sox to sign Hosmer early this winter). Here's how he'd fit among the other LHH on our team (2017 stats):
Devers - .609 wOBA (37 PA)
Carrera - .441 (34 PA)
Bradley - .423 (68 PA)
Moreland - .413 (96 PA)
Holt - .367 (23 PA)
Benintendi - .254 (101 PA)
Leon - .175 (32 PA as LHH)
Given the position the Red Sox are in right now with regard to the luxury tax, I don't think they're in a position to be picking up other teams' discards. Especially ones with no minor league options and little chance of cracking the starting lineup more than once every two weeks (assuming everyone's healthy).
And Holt left today's game in his second at bat after getting hit on the arm by a pitch. No luck for this guy.
Cora figured that the Brockstar is locally beloved and needs..... other ways of keeping him off the 25 man, rather than just an outright release
I know you're making a joke, but if the goal is to remove Holt from the roster, outright release right now would save them a couple million in salary that could be more beneficial over the course of the year than any goodwill they garner by not "mistreating" a popular player.
That said, I'm not advocating for them to cut Holt purely for cost-saving reasons. Just saying that if they don't feel he has a place when he's healthy, they're better off cutting him now than "stashing" him on the DL to alleviate a roster crunch.
Would it, though? If he's released, and even if he is picked up by another team, aren't the Sox on the hook for all but the MLB minimum? (or all of it if he's not picked up?) As with Sandoval.
EDIT: Never mind. He makes 2.25M; MLB minimum is 500K. So you're right; the saving would be 1.75M.
As an arbitration-eligible player, Holt's contract isn't guaranteed until camp breaks. If they cut him during spring training, they're only on the hook for a portion of his deal. At this point in camp, it would be 45 days worth of salary or about $562K. If they'd cut him before March 3, they'd only have owed him 30 days salary, or about $375K.
A question about how that works: if the Sox cut him now and another team picks him up, is that team liable for the salary the Sox would have paid him, or does his salary need to be re-arbitrated, or does the new team get to negotiate from scratch as with an FA, effectively cancelling Holt's arbitration rights? Seems like a weird case.
If they DFA Holt and another team claims him on waivers, they inherit the contract as is and the Red Sox pay nothing. If they outright release Holt, paying only the 45 days of salary required, then he's a free agent who can negotiate whatever terms he wishes with whatever team he wishes. If it's a one-year deal, he'd be arbitration-eligible again next winter, same as ever. Until he accrues 6 full years of service, he'll be beholden to whichever team holds his rights unless the team chooses to relinquish them.
I've been reading talk here of either trading Holt at low value or DFA. Why?
If Nunez gets hurt again what do they have? To me, Lin isnt ready to gamble on this year.
If you chose Marrero instead it means you definitely are going to need to make sure Swihart's spring is not a fluke.
If anything stick Holt in the minors (if he's not a DL candidate.).
If Nunez gets hurt again what do they have? To me, Lin isnt ready to gamble on this year.
If you chose Marrero instead it means you definitely are going to need to make sure Swihart's spring is not a fluke.
If anything stick Holt in the minors (if he's not a DL candidate.).
Cora is looking for Marwins down in Florida.
"Marwin Gonzalez started games at five positions for the World Series champion Houston Astros last season.
But to call him a bench player would be inaccurate. Gonzalez started 120 games, had 515 plate appearances, and finished fifth on the team with 4.3 WAR.
That left a deep impression on Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was Houston’s bench coach. He often talked to manager A.J. Hinch about how best to use Gonzalez to benefit other players on the roster... Now Cora is looking for his own version of Gonzalez, a super utility player who is essentially a starter. He wants to feel comfortable resting his starters with an eye on the postseason."
I really like the sound of that. Cora seems to be planning on giving the starters lots of time off, which could be really helpful. So many players last year tried to tough it out and stay in the lineup when they were banged up and playing poorly because of injury. Hopefully that will be really reduced under Cora.
Cora had a very interesting quote on Two-Way Lin: “Defensively, he’s a shortstop for a championship-caliber team,” Cora said. “I feel that way. That’s what caught my eye.”
If Lin really is a really good defensive shortstop, that basically makes Marerro completely redundant IMO, as he is out of options while Lin can ride the shuttle if needed. Lin also seems to have more positional versatility, since he can also cover the OF.
"Marwin Gonzalez started games at five positions for the World Series champion Houston Astros last season.
But to call him a bench player would be inaccurate. Gonzalez started 120 games, had 515 plate appearances, and finished fifth on the team with 4.3 WAR.
That left a deep impression on Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was Houston’s bench coach. He often talked to manager A.J. Hinch about how best to use Gonzalez to benefit other players on the roster... Now Cora is looking for his own version of Gonzalez, a super utility player who is essentially a starter. He wants to feel comfortable resting his starters with an eye on the postseason."
I really like the sound of that. Cora seems to be planning on giving the starters lots of time off, which could be really helpful. So many players last year tried to tough it out and stay in the lineup when they were banged up and playing poorly because of injury. Hopefully that will be really reduced under Cora.
Cora had a very interesting quote on Two-Way Lin: “Defensively, he’s a shortstop for a championship-caliber team,” Cora said. “I feel that way. That’s what caught my eye.”
If Lin really is a really good defensive shortstop, that basically makes Marerro completely redundant IMO, as he is out of options while Lin can ride the shuttle if needed. Lin also seems to have more positional versatility, since he can also cover the OF.
Why is this a reason to go with Lin? If anything it's a reason to go with Marrero to start the year, to retain as much flexibility as possible.
It would be different if there were a solid chance of keeping Lin on the 25-man all year (thus avoiding burning an option), but I don't see how he survives the roster crunch when Pedroia comes back, unless they ditch Leon at that point and make Swihart the #2 catcher (or find a trade partner for either Hanley or Moreland).
Lin in 2108 minor league plate appearances - .240/312/.323
Marrero in 2255 minor league plate appearances - .245/.312/.332
They both have been among the suckiest among all minor league hitters and have had half a season of minor league hitting success followed by more suck.
It's really about rolling the dice on both Lin's slightly higher offensive upside due to age and showing something more recently vs. the "risk" of losing Marerro off of waivers. I guess you could factor in Lin's versatility and speed as well - but we're talking about mostly blow out at bats or defensive replacement innings anyhow.
And no, I don't think it's a given on losing Marrero to waivers unlike others. He is so very terrible with the bat that I think most teams have better all around options in their systems with the current hitting climate as it is. I'd flip a coin and be as ok as one would be with having either of them around until Pedey returns.
I do have slight worry about their playing time if Nunez can't yet handle a full workload and Cora sees a lot of himself in either guy.
Marrero in 2255 minor league plate appearances - .245/.312/.332
They both have been among the suckiest among all minor league hitters and have had half a season of minor league hitting success followed by more suck.
It's really about rolling the dice on both Lin's slightly higher offensive upside due to age and showing something more recently vs. the "risk" of losing Marerro off of waivers. I guess you could factor in Lin's versatility and speed as well - but we're talking about mostly blow out at bats or defensive replacement innings anyhow.
And no, I don't think it's a given on losing Marrero to waivers unlike others. He is so very terrible with the bat that I think most teams have better all around options in their systems with the current hitting climate as it is. I'd flip a coin and be as ok as one would be with having either of them around until Pedey returns.
I do have slight worry about their playing time if Nunez can't yet handle a full workload and Cora sees a lot of himself in either guy.
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It's a reason to dump Marrero for whatever minor leaguer or "cash considerations" you can get and keep Lin in AAA unless and until there's an injury. Holt or Nunez can cover SS for a game or two, and if anyone goes on the DL you can bring up Lin as needed.
The only real argument for keeping Marrero around is that he is a good infield glove and a better defensive SS than Holt or Nunez, guys you wouldn't want to play SS for more than an occasional game here or there. If Lin is also a good SS that we can bring up and down as needed, then there is no real reason to keep Marrero.
OK, you're assuming they keep Holt. I'm assuming they release him. Different assumptions, different results. I agree that there's no room for Marrero on the same Opening Day roster as Holt, so if they keep Holt they have no choice but to DFA Marrero.
Which brings up another interesting question: Why keep Holt above Lin? Lin is a better defender in the infield, plays the outfield at least as well, runs better, and in an admittedly SSS, seems to have a better batting eye (2017, Holt's OBP .305, Lin's .369). Seems obvious to me that Holt's stay here is over, but let's see what DD thinks...
Lin's "better batting eye" could be a one year illusion. He was not all that exceptional a hitter until 2017. That may have been the result of some adjustment that could have lasting effects, but it might not. By the same token, last year for Holt could have been an injury-caused down year. He could bounce back to what he was in 2014-2016.
I'd rather hoard resources and keep both until a clearer picture can be seen.
I concur with the bolded. Holt and Lin both have options remaining, so, (if Brock's salary isn't a concern for the Sox) they can hold onto Holt, Lin and Marrero (provided Marrero makes the 25-man roster or passes unclaimed through waivers - as he's out of options). It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.
The Holt-Lin-Marrero conversation takes a slight back seat to the 3-catcher quandary. No team I can remember carried 3 catchers on the active roster outside September, or at least not for long prior to trading or DFA'ing one of them. I'm struggling to come up with an example of the latter situation, but I don't recall exactly when it happened.
If anyone has recollection of a time any team kept 3 catchers on their 25-man roster, please share.
IMHO, if Blake is truly going to be a super-sub, he hasn't been given the in-game opportunity this spring to show he's capable. Why might that be?
I see two reasons: He is yet being dangled as a trade piece, or he's being protected from the media while evaluating his versatility in the field.
As a trade piece, Swihart's greatest value is as a catcher. Exposing him to many in-game opportunities where he may not be comfortable (2B and 3B seem much more challenging than LF or 1B) could cause a drop in his potential trade value.
On the other hand, I can picture Cora giving Swihart reps in practice to evaluate his abilty outside of catcher (and LF/1B). This reduces some of the media scrutiny which, we have to admit, is pretty intense. It preps Blake for versatility, gives the team a more clear picture of how he might do, and allows him to focus on what he's been pretty good at this spring, hitting.
Leon's two dingers in one game don't make the decision-making process any simpler.
Beyond this catching quagmire, it would remove some pressure on the Holt-Lin-Marrero decision making, at least until Pedey returns from a rehab stint that gives the team more time to figure out who is staying and who is going. I think Marrero could potentially clear waivers. However, I admit that if our two primary catchers are Vazquez/Leon, I have a really hard time seeing a roster that contains both Holt and Swihart.
All-in-all, having too many options is not a bad problem to have, I suppose.
If anyone has recollection of a time any team kept 3 catchers on their 25-man roster, please share.
IMHO, if Blake is truly going to be a super-sub, he hasn't been given the in-game opportunity this spring to show he's capable. Why might that be?
I see two reasons: He is yet being dangled as a trade piece, or he's being protected from the media while evaluating his versatility in the field.
As a trade piece, Swihart's greatest value is as a catcher. Exposing him to many in-game opportunities where he may not be comfortable (2B and 3B seem much more challenging than LF or 1B) could cause a drop in his potential trade value.
On the other hand, I can picture Cora giving Swihart reps in practice to evaluate his abilty outside of catcher (and LF/1B). This reduces some of the media scrutiny which, we have to admit, is pretty intense. It preps Blake for versatility, gives the team a more clear picture of how he might do, and allows him to focus on what he's been pretty good at this spring, hitting.
Leon's two dingers in one game don't make the decision-making process any simpler.
Beyond this catching quagmire, it would remove some pressure on the Holt-Lin-Marrero decision making, at least until Pedey returns from a rehab stint that gives the team more time to figure out who is staying and who is going. I think Marrero could potentially clear waivers. However, I admit that if our two primary catchers are Vazquez/Leon, I have a really hard time seeing a roster that contains both Holt and Swihart.
All-in-all, having too many options is not a bad problem to have, I suppose.
https://www.mlb.com/news/padres-could-carry-4-catchers-on-roster/c-220195228
Teams generally don't keep 3 catchers who only catch. I would think more of Swihart's PA's would be while playing a different position.
It's already been rehashed but Swihart has more value to the Red Sox because he likely won't bring much back in a trade - so they may as well keep him around because they have abysmal depth in the minors.
And which player is more deserving of a roster spot? Whomever it is, is getting very little playing time.
Thanks for that post on the Padres. And last year, even! Weird to me for a team to go forth with 4 catchers, especially, but they had differing abilities, so... A bench made up of guys who can play everywhere wouldn't be a bad thing, so long as they aren't a liability when they're in the field and are replacement level+.
I think most of *us* here know Swihart has more current value on our roster than in a trade, but that doesn't mean DD sees it that way exactly or that other teams might decide Swihart is the next Ted Simmons, or that Vazquez is the next Yadi Molina or Leon is the next... Eddie Perez?
For me, I want Swihart in Boston, whether as a catcher or as a guy who adds value wherever he plays.
Here's to hoping whomsoever fills the last spot on the bench, he gets only as much playing time as is needed to help keep our regulars ready, steady, and deadly.
Are they going to pay Holt $2M+ to play in Pawtucket as insurance? That seems implausible to me.
I have my doubts that they would do that. I expect they'd be more apt to shop him and maybe find a younger/cheaper version of him to put on the shuttle than send him down. If they don't think he's Opening Day roster material, they don't have any confidence in him at all IMO. If that is the case, it would be in their best interest to trade him or simply cut him to save the salary.
My expectation is Holt makes the 25-man, Lin goes to Pawtucket, and Marrero gets DFA (and maybe they luck out and can outright him to the minors). As valuable a glove as Marrero is, he's not worth keeping on the 25-man roster if everyone else is healthy and moderately productive.
I second that expectation, though nothing would surprise me as pruning and culling of the roster ensues. The hot stove is not quite done for everybody yet, even if it seems like it might be for us.
Just a quick note: Swihart will play 3B this weekend, and has already played 1B, LF, and C in Grapefruit League games, as well as 2B on the back fields.
With Holt having been the victim of so many maladies the last couple of years, it's pretty hard for us to predict what he's capable of doing in 2018 and beyond. Of course, the Sox brain trust has more knowledge than we do in this regard but they may want to see more before they feel comfortable deciding his fate. Thus, I don't find it completely inconceivable that they'd start him off in Pawtucket with regular playing time to see how he fares.
Didn’t Maddon Keep 3 catchers on the cubs to start last year? Montero, Contreras and Schwarber (who did catch a little bit). I know National League and also Maddon being a bit different...but Swihart would be his Schwarber.
In fact in early May he played all three in the same game at the same time (with Schwarber catching) against the Phillies to give Bryant and Rizzo rest...
For players in arbitration, as long as they are cut before opening day, only something like 45 days of pay is guaranteed.
He didn’t go to arbitration, they agreed on a contract before that process occurred; I’m pretty sure that only applies if they go to a hearing and he’s awarded a settlement, one way or the other. According to sportrac and cot’s, his contract is guaranteed. I’ve yet to see it posed as such elsewhere, unless someone has a link they’d like to share.