Seems to me like an absolutely incredible draft for receivers. There are 9 guys in there whose careers would rank them among the 3 best receivers the Patriots have drafted in the last 22 years. 7 of them have already had a thousand yard season.
The Ballad of N'Keal
- Thread starter DJnVa
- Start date
I do wonder whether the Pats' poor history with drafting WR may be a feature not a bug. I have no idea why that would be or what would go into it, but the list of misses they have on WR suggest there is some flaw in their system at the evaluation and/or developmental level. I'd be interested to know why that is and I know it seems weird given their unbelievable success at almost every other facet of the game. But I feel like 20+ years of this tells a pretty clear story.
I just don't get why they tend to use their higher draft picks on receivers that don't fit the mold of the guys that thrive in their system. After hitting a home run with Deion Branch, they've focused those selections on guys like Harry, Aaron Dobson, Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate and Taylor Price, all of them physically gifted outside receivers who weren't known for their route running ability or small space quickness.
I agree that N'Keal Harry wasn't predicted by many to be a bust before the draft, but his profile as a player was also immediately recognized as different from the guys that usually produce in the Patriots offense.
Yeah ... not to let Harry off the hook, but after Branch their most successful WRs were drafted in the seventh round (Givens, Edelman) ... and neither of them had really been WRs before! It's honestly odd -- and something that would be great to hear BB explain at some point in that book he'll never write.
I feel like gauging how good a WR is right now is a bit like determining who is a good 3 point shooter a few years ago, in that the league is changing fast and "average" production is moving faster than our conceptions can keep up, since those are from decades of watching a pretty different game.
It was one hundred percent a great receive draft which makes the Pats failure to get a good one really really frustrating.
Isn't that true of pretty much every bust? Sure sometimes someone blows out a knee or has a legal problem, but generally it turns out that the flaws that were present in the evaluation prove to be too much for the player to overcome.
They've invested the least draft capital on WR in the NFL over that time span. The results have been bad, but I'm not remotely convinced there's an evaluation issue versus just coming out slightly below par on variance.
I'm willing to buy that and, to be clear, I don't think this is some massive oversight and/or problem. If I had to guess, they probably think that evaluating WRs is too challenging and prefer to trade those draft picks for known NFL quantities. But I still find the whole thing a bit weird given the high percentage of outright busts.
Sometimes it's unpredictable bad luck, as unsatisfying of an explanation as that may be. Harry wasn't universally liked by scouts, but few late first round picks are.
A lot of the picks noted above were in the 2nd and 3rd round, and the washout rate on those picks is higher than many often realize. Still, both Aaron Dobson and Malcolm Mitchell had their careers derailed by injury after promising rookie seasons. While Mitchell had a history of knee trouble, Dobson's injuries were not something that could have been predicted. And while his rookie season wasn't all that promising, Chad Jackson did sustain a bad ACL tear late in the 2006 season.
A lot of the picks noted above were in the 2nd and 3rd round, and the washout rate on those picks is higher than many often realize. Still, both Aaron Dobson and Malcolm Mitchell had their careers derailed by injury after promising rookie seasons. While Mitchell had a history of knee trouble, Dobson's injuries were not something that could have been predicted. And while his rookie season wasn't all that promising, Chad Jackson did sustain a bad ACL tear late in the 2006 season.
I don't think this is an accurate characterization of all these guys. Chad Jackson was a super quick inside-out guy who caught a lot of short stuff in college. Tate was quick enough to return punts in the NFL for years. Taylor Price was an average sized guy with a really good 3-cone.
I don't think the percentage is really all that high; I think people generally overrate the chances of 2nd (especially late 2nd) and 3rd round picks hitting. Furthermore, the Patriots have successfully identified effective pass-catchers at other positions, like Gronk, Hernandez, Ben Watson, James White, and Shane Vereen. I think they just value WR less than pretty much anyone else, have drafted fewer, and have had mild bad luck.
I think it's really just the familiarity cognitive bias. We know the team so well that we say things like the Pats always bust on receivers look at Chad Jackson and Aaron Dobson--Chad Jackson was picked 16 years ago! We don't say, I don't know, that the Bengals are great drafters because they got Andrew Witsworth Jonathan Joseph Frosty Rucker and Peko with their first four picks that draft.
In this thread on Bill and drafting of WRs, I pointed out that the Ravens - a franchise that has been really good at drafting - has had tons of swings and misses at the WR position.
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/bill-belichick-and-the-drafting-of-wide-receivers.35906/#post-4878495
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/bill-belichick-and-the-drafting-of-wide-receivers.35906/#post-4878495
Reading a quote like this, and considering Harry in the context of oh-so-many other WR draft picks that haven't worked out and it makes me wonder if it is about the coaching in NE. And when I say "the coaching," I refer mainly to the position coach, but also to the OC. Is the position coach not getting the players the teaching that helps them improve? Or is the OC crafting a scheme that is too hard to grasp?
Compare this position to OLine (Dante) or RB (Fears) where the Pats consistently have churned out players who succeeded as pros above and beyond where their collegiate scouting reports might have suggested.
In a similar fashion, it's interesting how most of their most successful CB's have been UDFA's, while they have had much better success in drafting safeties. Or DT's vs LBs.
This is a tough argument when you have a rookie the same year in Jakobi Meyers who has developed, has picked up the offense, and basically took Harry's job from him halfway through year two.
I mean, is it that surprising? At least on the CB, those are the guys who defend the other guys we don’t draft terribly well, or many of. It seems BB feels more comfortable approaching that whole part of the game through a trade for a proven player than based on college film.
It would be interesting to know which position the Patriots typically do best and worst at in terms of drafting or UDFAs. I'm not talking about trades or free agents (outside of UDFAs, which I consider to be a different category).
Just from what it *feels* like to me, not looking at any data, it seems like BB does great at O-linemen, defensive backs, TEs, and even QBs. Not so good at WRs or edge players. Though obviously there are bad OL and TE picks, and also some good WR and edge picks.
Just from what it *feels* like to me, not looking at any data, it seems like BB does great at O-linemen, defensive backs, TEs, and even QBs. Not so good at WRs or edge players. Though obviously there are bad OL and TE picks, and also some good WR and edge picks.
Fair point. But one might argue that when you have a guy in your system for a couple/few years and he does very little, then other teams are less likely to give him a chance. Or that if you release a guy after his prime "step-up" years, it's harder for him at age 25 or 26 to take that step to the next level.
I understand that a whole slew of pro scouts missed on Harry, I just think - grain of salt, please - they’re out of their minds and bad at their jobs if a guy who was reported to have trouble separating in college was pretty much universally evaluated as a late day one/early day two draft pick and then busted in the NFL because…he had trouble separating at the pro level. I could absolutely be wrong about this. Are there really good NFL receivers who had trouble separating in college?
Terrell Owens?
His closest combine similarity results include Derek Carr & Hart Lee Dykes.
In college at Tennessee-Chattanooga, an FCS team which never had a winning record, he put up his best year in his sophomore season before falling off a cliff his junior year...
Soph 38/724/8
Jr 34/357/3
Sr 43/667/1
Honestly pretty impressive the 49ers picked him 89th.
But yeah, always been an AJ Brown truther. This scouting report seems like a great Pats fit too...
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/a.j.-brown/32004252-4f41-3223-e4c5-1e30dffa87f8
Compared to Harry...
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/n'keal-harry/32004841-5265-4593-d716-d972ec2d4468
Deebo actually had some of the same separation concerns & was injury prone...
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/deebo-samuel/32005341-4d63-6097-eab1-34810e00be67
His closest combine similarity results include Derek Carr & Hart Lee Dykes.
In college at Tennessee-Chattanooga, an FCS team which never had a winning record, he put up his best year in his sophomore season before falling off a cliff his junior year...
Soph 38/724/8
Jr 34/357/3
Sr 43/667/1
Honestly pretty impressive the 49ers picked him 89th.
But yeah, always been an AJ Brown truther. This scouting report seems like a great Pats fit too...
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/a.j.-brown/32004252-4f41-3223-e4c5-1e30dffa87f8
Compared to Harry...
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/n'keal-harry/32004841-5265-4593-d716-d972ec2d4468
Deebo actually had some of the same separation concerns & was injury prone...
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/deebo-samuel/32005341-4d63-6097-eab1-34810e00be67
Fitzgerald was drafted 3rd overall, and there was concerns about his ability to separate.
Ja'marr Chase had concerns about separation off of the press, and that bled into concerns in training camp about his inability to separate.
It happens. Just like everything else, it's another tool to gauge a receiver, but not the only tool.
In training camp there were questions about if Chase could catch the ball. Weird. There were some questions about his ability to separate from some analysts. Others like me (I get a lot wrong ok… a lot. But not this) didn’t see that issue. He got separation either by beating the pants off of press at the snap or right at the break or catch point. He got it consistently. Burrow underthrew some deep shots he had to adjust to and I think that’s why some analysts maybe thought that. That or they want slot level separation for an outside guy which is not realistic.
Didn’t remember that about Fitzgerald. Interesting. Sure wish N’Keal had turned into that. Or that they had drafted one of the receivers - Deebo or AJ - that many had going to New England bc they were (are) more traditional Patriots scheme fits.
Interesting. I do think they had those 3 in mind at the top but I think they saw Harry as a versatile receiver, same for Brown, and Deebo as a slot and gadget guy. He doesn’t play outside. Harry was bigger than Brown but I was an AJ Brown WR1 guy.
Lombardi had a lot of negative things to say about Matt Luke, DK Metcalf, and their offense. I think if you magically switched where Harry and Brown played in college he would have been the pick. Belichick, I think, was influenced by some glowing reports from Arizona State’s coaching staff. Now maybe that’s not true - I’m just speculating here. Not that blocking is a huge deal but Harry was night and day better at it than Brown who didn’t always even attempt to seriously block in college. Sometimes you just back the wrong horse.
Lombardi had a lot of negative things to say about Matt Luke, DK Metcalf, and their offense. I think if you magically switched where Harry and Brown played in college he would have been the pick. Belichick, I think, was influenced by some glowing reports from Arizona State’s coaching staff. Now maybe that’s not true - I’m just speculating here. Not that blocking is a huge deal but Harry was night and day better at it than Brown who didn’t always even attempt to seriously block in college. Sometimes you just back the wrong horse.