The Athletic: The Astros stole signs electronically in 2017 part of a much broader issue for Major League Baseball

YTF

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Well you are technically correct with respect to Spygate, but the reality is that the Patriots were punished as if TAPING AT ALL was against the rules. Remember, the fury over it, from all the pundits to league officials, wasn't about "Well, sure, they were allowed to tape, they just did it from a wrong location in the building." You don't dock a team a 1st round draft pick and fine them like a million dollars total for putting the camera in the wrong place. BB was correct in that the rules did not strictly forbid the Pats from taping defensive signals, but the league sure treated the team (with the ensuing punishment, that frankly led to the Deflategate punishment as well) as if it was taping, period, that was illegal.

It's not just that the media portrayed it incorrectly; it's that the league itself punished the Pats this way. And we all know it.
If you want to argue the merits of the punishment feel free, but that has nothing to do with my post. I'm neither applauding or condemning what the NFL did in response to Spygate, but rather pointing out that many don't understand what happened there and IMO there is a clear difference in the two incidents given Astro hitters are given the opportunity to know what's coming in real time.
 

BaseballJones

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If you want to argue the merits of the punishment feel free, but that has nothing to do with my post. I'm neither applauding or condemning what the NFL did in response to Spygate, but rather pointing out that many don't understand what happened there and IMO there is a clear difference in the two incidents given Astro hitters are given the opportunity to know what's coming in real time.
Yes and I’m not disagreeing with you. Just to make sure there’s no misunderstanding.
 

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jon abbey

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Sidenote: I'm aggravated this piece is behind a paywall. All the summaries of this piece online are terrible, but I'm not risking getting charged $60 because I forget to cancel something so I could read a single article. The Athletic should unlock this piece -- content is the best advertisement.
The Athletic is great, this is their business model and good for them for sticking to it in an era when most attempts at journalism/reporting suck. They have a handful of worthwhile pieces at least every day, well worth the subscription for anyone who can afford it.
 

Van Everyman

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It's not just that the media portrayed it incorrectly; it's that the league itself punished the Pats this way.
I couldn't have said it better myself.

This vid's a tougher sell for me. The banging's not audible in real time to me.
This is going to be a brutal few days with every internet sleuth on earth rushing to show that every single whistle or bang is them stealing a sign. Only a matter of time before someone from Houston finds another team doing it.
The Athletic is great, this is their business model and good for them for sticking to it in an era when most attempts at journalism/reporting suck. They have a handful of worthwhile pieces at least every day, well worth the subscription for anyone who can afford it.
Yeah, I have no doubt it is. It's not the fact that The Athletic has a paywall, it's that they just dropped a huge bomb of a piece that is shaking up a league ... and it's unable to be accessed by anyone who isn't subscribing. That's not how most reputable publications do it because they actually believe that their journalistic product is important. Plus, as I said, it's really the best form of advertising.
 

sean1562

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The Athletic is great, this is their business model and good for them for sticking to it in an era when most attempts at journalism/reporting suck. They have a handful of worthwhile pieces at least every day, well worth the subscription for anyone who can afford it.
he is also pretty much admitting he has no intention of actually paying for the service haha. So I really dont think thy care too much about losing those customers. While I dont pay for the service, I have been tempted to purchase it and might in the future. The snippets of in depth analysis I have read from them have all been top notch.

Regardless, baseballprospectus agrees with him and has made their article on the issue free for all users. You just have to login with a free basic account

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/55215/signs-stealed-delivered/
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I have no doubt it is. It's not the fact that The Athletic has a paywall, it's that they just dropped a huge bomb of a piece that is shaking up a league ... and it's unable to be accessed by anyone who isn't subscribing. That's not how most reputable publications do it because they actually believe that their journalistic product is important. Plus, as I said, it's really the best form of advertising.
Couldn't disagree more with those last two sentences (FWIW, I spent a decade working at Time) and think that those opinions have a lot to do with the sad state of journalism today, but I've posted my opinions on that recently on this site and it's off topic.
 

YTF

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Just a quick thought before heading to work. Given he's been openly critical of MLB (in particular when it comes to the issue of whether or not the baseballs are juiced) I'd love to hear Justin Verlander's response to all of this. More so when you consider it's highly likely that he or Garret Cole will be named the league's Cy Young Award winner in a few more hours.
 

Van Everyman

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Couldn't disagree more with those last two sentences (FWIW, I spent a decade working at Time) and think that those opinions have a lot to do with the sad state of journalism today, but I've posted my opinions on that recently on this site and it's off topic.
he is also pretty much admitting he has no intention of actually paying for the service haha. So I really dont think thy care too much about losing those customers. While I dont pay for the service, I have been tempted to purchase it and might in the future. The snippets of in depth analysis I have read from them have all been top notch.

Regardless, baseballprospectus agrees with him and has made their article on the issue free for all users. You just have to login with a free basic account

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/55215/signs-stealed-delivered/
Cool -- thanks for sharing, tho just to be clear: my issue isn't that I don't want to pay for The Athletic's service ever. And re. @jon abbey's "sad state of journalism" comment, I'm not asking for the site to unlock loads of content for free. The problem is that (unless I'm missing something) you can't buy a single article (or, in the past, an issue). You have to buy an annual subscription -- or risk it by signing up for a "free trial" that becomes an annual subscription if you don't cancel before it's over. And while that's hardly unique to them, it's kind of bullshit.

I'll check out the BP piece.
 

DJnVa

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Two things:

1--they offer things like 40% discounts all the time. I think I got my sub for $29.95 for a year.
2--in today's day and age it's really not hard to set a reminder on your phone or work calendar to pop up a week before any trial subscription ends.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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One excerpt of the BP piece:

one thing is very clear—this was not a one time thing. In fact, the blunt-object-to-hollow-plastic sound can be heard in almost every game I watched.
Before the seventh pitch of the year, you can hear a bang right before Jose Altuve watches a Felix Hernandez dive below the zone. They were stealing signs on literally the first day of the season. They didn’t just come up with this on a whim halfway through the year and see if it worked. The Astros entered 2017 with a plan in place to relay signs to their hitters.
 

drbretto

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Tangent:

I've been thinking lately that analytics have gone beyond the field lately. Maybe it's because I'm studying machine learning and I'm seeing it everywhere, but it's crazy how easy it would be for any random person to make a machine learning app to help read steal signs. I would imagine a professional, working for a team, could quite easily use a similar process to pour over pitching videos to highlight pitch tipping. I mean, I think it'd take like 8 lines of code and one full time analyst in the clubhouse.

It has intuitively seemed like tipping pitches has been more and more a part of the game lately. It was huge in the 2018 playoffs, and specifically surrounding the Astros. There's the launch angle revolution, the new balls. People analyzing every last morsel of data out there to get a competitive advantage, I'd be shocked if this isn't everywhere. I'd have to question the business sense of any organization that didn't.
 

StuckOnYouk

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To be fair the Yankees didnt lose to the Astros in 2017 because of this.
They lost because with a 3-2 series lead they scored one combined run in games 6 and 7.
 

Oil Can Dan

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If you want to argue the merits of the punishment feel free, but that has nothing to do with my post. I'm neither applauding or condemning what the NFL did in response to Spygate, but rather pointing out that many don't understand what happened there and IMO there is a clear difference in the two incidents given Astro hitters are given the opportunity to know what's coming in real time.
But the Patriots were videotaping from their sideline, and were bringing the camera and the tape inside it into their locker room at halftime. Being that videocameras at the time had playback functionality aren't these two things closer to the same than not? The Patriots could have, theoretically, reviewed the signals given for specific defensive calls in the locker room and then implemented a strategy to use during the 2nd half, no? So not exactly real-time, but also not post-game. As has been mentioned, had a Patriot employee been taping the same exact thing from the stands then no harm no foul. And no possible review inside the locker room.
 

Bowhemian

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But the Patriots were videotaping from their sideline, and were bringing the camera and the tape inside it into their locker room at halftime. Being that videocameras at the time had playback functionality aren't these two things closer to the same than not? The Patriots could have, theoretically, reviewed the signals given for specific defensive calls in the locker room and then implemented a strategy to use during the 2nd half, no? So not exactly real-time, but also not post-game. As has been mentioned, had a Patriot employee been taping the same exact thing from the stands then no harm no foul. And no possible review inside the locker room.
What would stop a Pats employee from going into the locker room from the stands at any point? It might take a while, but it is certainly possible.
 

Murderer's Crow

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To be fair the Yankees didnt lose to the Astros in 2017 because of this.
They lost because with a 3-2 series lead they scored one combined run in games 6 and 7.
They lost 4 games in Minute Maid Park. I'm not sure who you're arguing with or if you just want to try to dunk on the Yankees but there is literally no way to know this unless someone goes back, watches those games, and identifies that the runs scored by Houston were on pitches where they were signal stealing. In other words, it's possible they did lose a few runs to this but I doubt we'll ever know.
 

Harry Hooper

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This is going to be a brutal few days with every internet sleuth on earth rushing to show that every single whistle or bang is them stealing a sign. Only a matter of time before someone from Houston finds another team doing it.
These clips of off-speed pitches getting hammered are certainly instructive, but there's another side of the coin to consider here. Batters hammering fastballs that they know are coming, aka a non-signal = a signal in itself.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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They lost 4 games in Minute Maid Park. I'm not sure who you're arguing with or if you just want to try to dunk on the Yankees but there is literally no way to know this unless someone goes back, watches those games, and identifies that the runs scored by Houston were on pitches where they were signal stealing. In other words, it's possible they did lose a few runs to this but I doubt we'll ever know.
I just pulled up Game 7 of that series in 2017 on Youtube and goddamn I just heard a trashcan bang. Gurriel vs Kahle, bottom of the 5th, 1 out. 2-2 pitch, breaking ball outside.

It's tough to hear because of the crowd noise but I did hear it. Scanning around for more.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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These clips of off-speed pitches getting hammered are certainly instructive, but there's another side of the coin to consider here. Batters hammering fastballs that they know are coming, aka a non-signal = a signal in itself.
Exactly. McCann hit a run scoring double in that same inning on a fastball (albeit 89 and right down the middle) but no bang beforehand. If you don't get a signal, it's not a breaking ball.
 

Harry Hooper

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(Bear with me for an anecdotal observation without backing data) It's well established that pitches in the heart of the strike zone tend to get smashed. Here's the old Ted Williams batting average/strike zone chart:




One thing that's been sort of lurking in the back of my mind in recent seasons watching MLB games has been how it seems current hitters punish center-cut fastballs for homers more reliably now than in the past. They just don't seem to take the pitch, foul it off, or get a simple base hit as often today. Again, that's just a feeling with no hard data behind it.

I had been attributing this sense partly to the launch-angle revolution, partly to declining stuff from some hurlers (e.g., Price), and partly to some of those advanced kinesiology and visual acuity tools hitters now train with. What if hitters being told more often that the fastball is coming is a major reason for them now being more adept at crushing such pitches and what the Astros have been doing is pretty widespread in MLB?
 

joe dokes

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I'm confused about the punishment issue. Weren't the Sox assessed a fine by mlb for the Apple watch business? (I believe the amount was undisclosed and turned over to charity.)
And that was "just" about electronically relaying information that they had apparently "stolen" in a legitimate way.

Well you are technically correct with respect to Spygate, but the reality is that the Patriots were punished as if TAPING AT ALL was against the rules. Remember, the fury over it, from all the pundits to league officials, wasn't about "Well, sure, they were allowed to tape, they just did it from a wrong location in the building." You don't dock a team a 1st round draft pick and fine them like a million dollars total for putting the camera in the wrong place. BB was correct in that the rules did not strictly forbid the Pats from taping defensive signals, but the league sure treated the team (with the ensuing punishment, that frankly led to the Deflategate punishment as well) as if it was taping, period, that was illegal.
It's not just that the media portrayed it incorrectly; it's that the league itself punished the Pats this way. And we all know it.
You can't talk about the violation or the punishment without at least acknowledging that BB was told (by league memo) not to do exactly what he later did.

EDIT...I should have read the dope message. I did not. I'll be over in the woodshed.
 

jon abbey

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That whole 2017 ALCS was weird:

4 games in HOU: HOU outscored NYY 15-3, wins all four
3 games in NY: NY outscored HOU 19-5, wins all three

I'm honestly not drawing any conclusions there, I have no idea what that means if anything, but it was a weird series.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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That whole 2017 ALCS was weird:

4 games in HOU: HOU outscored NYY 15-3, wins all four
3 games in NY: NY outscored HOU 19-5, wins all three

I'm honestly not drawing any conclusions there, I have no idea what that means if anything, but it was a weird series.
After this year's WS I think I've concluded that the postseason is just strange in general.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Just looking at some WS games in general and it's tough to hear much. Beck and Smoltz talk so much it's hard to hear the background. I did hear a bang in an Altuve AB during Game 5 of 2017 but it's faint enough for me to think I could be mistaken.
 

BaseballJones

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It really is like crazy obvious what they were doing, once it’s been deciphered. MLB should absolutely hammer these guys.
 

E5 Yaz

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That whole 2017 ALCS was weird:

4 games in HOU: HOU outscored NYY 15-3, wins all four
3 games in NY: NY outscored HOU 19-5, wins all three

I'm honestly not drawing any conclusions there, I have no idea what that means if anything, but it was a weird series.
It just means that MLB hasn't found out how the Yankees cheat at home
 

sean1562

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Cool -- thanks for sharing, tho just to be clear: my issue isn't that I don't want to pay for The Athletic's service ever. And re. @jon abbey's "sad state of journalism" comment, I'm not asking for the site to unlock loads of content for free. The problem is that (unless I'm missing something) you can't buy a single article (or, in the past, an issue). You have to buy an annual subscription -- or risk it by signing up for a "free trial" that becomes an annual subscription if you don't cancel before it's over. And while that's hardly unique to them, it's kind of bullshit.

I'll check out the BP piece.

yea after i posted that i realized i came off as kind of a dick. I have definitely forgotten to cancel "free trials" before so I get it haha.
 

Bergs

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It really is like crazy obvious what they were doing, once it’s been deciphered. MLB should absolutely hammer these guys.
Except MLB is likely terrified that shit like this is going on everywhere, and unlike the Ginger Hammer, Rob Manfred is smart enough not to fuck up the entire league's ecosytem without knowing all the facts.
 

BaseballJones

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Except MLB is likely terrified that shit like this is going on everywhere, and unlike the Ginger Hammer, Rob Manfred is smart enough not to fuck up the entire league's ecosytem without knowing all the facts.
Do you think he needs to have certainty of who else might be doing this in order to punish the Astros? When the Cardinals were found to have hacked into the Astros' computer database, they didn't need to know if anyone else had done it to anyone else. They just punished the Cardinals (weakly, IMO, but still).
 

Bergs

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Do you think he needs to have certainty of who else might be doing this in order to punish the Astros? When the Cardinals were found to have hacked into the Astros' computer database, they didn't need to know if anyone else had done it to anyone else. They just punished the Cardinals (weakly, IMO, but still).
Yeah, I think he's gonna want to have a REALLY good lay of the land before he drops the proverbial hammer.
 

BaseballJones

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Astros home/road batting splits:

2017:
Home - .279/.340/.472/.812
AL Home - .262/.331/.441/.772
Road - .284/.351/.483/.834
AL Road - .250/.316/.416/.733
2018:
Home - .248/.328/.403/.730
AL Home - .254/.325/.423/.747
Road - .262/.331/.446/.777
AL Road - .245/.312/.408/.719
2019:
Home - .284/.362/.516/.878
AL Home - .254/.324/.440/.765
Road - .265/.343/.476/.819
AL Road - .252/.320/.437/.757


So weirdly, in two of the last three seasons, Houston has hit better on the road than at home. If their cheating was mostly happening at home, it's not really reflective of the actual hitting results. And it's not like Houston isn't a decent hitters' park. Here are the overall slash lines at Minute Maid the past 3 seasons:

2017: .252/.319/.432/.751 (15th in MLB in ops)
2018: .232/.302/.386/.688 (28th in MLB in ops)
2019: .251/.322/.459/.781 (7th in MLB in ops)

Compare those overall numbers with Houston's at Minute Maid:

2017
MLB: .252/.319/.432/.751
Hou: .279/.340/.472/.812
2018
MLB: .232/.302/.386/.688
Hou: .248/.328/.403/.730
2019
MLB: .251/.322/.459/.781
Hou: .284/.362/.516/.878

So Hou definitely had a huge advantage over their opponents hitting at Minute Maid. Of course some of that is due to the fact that the Astros have had incredible pitching the past 3 seasons.

2017: 4.12 era (5th in AL)
2018: 3.11 era (1st in AL)
2019: 3.66 era (2nd in AL)

So yes it's clear they were cheating. But how much of an impact did it have on the outcomes? Hard to quantify it.
 

bosockboy

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Do you think he needs to have certainty of who else might be doing this in order to punish the Astros? When the Cardinals were found to have hacked into the Astros' computer database, they didn't need to know if anyone else had done it to anyone else. They just punished the Cardinals (weakly, IMO, but still).
FWIW, the Cards devoutly claim that while what they did was inexcusable they were doing it in a defensive manner to hold off the Astros who had initiated it. Seems like everything lands at Luhnow’s feet here.
 

YTF

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Just a quick thought before heading to work. Given he's been openly critical of MLB (in particular when it comes to the issue of whether or not the baseballs are juiced) I'd love to hear Justin Verlander's response to all of this. More so when you consider it's highly likely that he or Garret Cole will be named the league's Cy Young Award winner in a few more hours.
Bumpity, bump, bump, bump. Just curious if anyone watched the prelude to the announcing of the winner on the MLB Network. Guessing it was more than just a bit awkward given it's been a huge topic of discussion on the network. Did they address the elephant in the room with Verlander and Cole sitting there live? Did either or both pull a no show?
 

Murderer's Crow

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Bumpity, bump, bump, bump. Just curious if anyone watched the prelude to the announcing of the winner on the MLB Network. Guessing it was more than just a bit awkward given it's been a huge topic of discussion on the network. Did they address the elephant in the room with Verlander and Cole sitting there live? Did either or both pull a no show?
No, but I listened to MLBN on Sirius and the 5-6pm hour spent most of their time shitting all over Fiers while claiming everyone does it. I was quite surprised.
 

Marciano490

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Astros home/road batting splits:

2017:
Home - .279/.340/.472/.812
AL Home - .262/.331/.441/.772
Road - .284/.351/.483/.834
AL Road - .250/.316/.416/.733
2018:
Home - .248/.328/.403/.730
AL Home - .254/.325/.423/.747
Road - .262/.331/.446/.777
AL Road - .245/.312/.408/.719
2019:
Home - .284/.362/.516/.878
AL Home - .254/.324/.440/.765
Road - .265/.343/.476/.819
AL Road - .252/.320/.437/.757


So weirdly, in two of the last three seasons, Houston has hit better on the road than at home. If their cheating was mostly happening at home, it's not really reflective of the actual hitting results. And it's not like Houston isn't a decent hitters' park. Here are the overall slash lines at Minute Maid the past 3 seasons:

2017: .252/.319/.432/.751 (15th in MLB in ops)
2018: .232/.302/.386/.688 (28th in MLB in ops)
2019: .251/.322/.459/.781 (7th in MLB in ops)

Compare those overall numbers with Houston's at Minute Maid:

2017
MLB: .252/.319/.432/.751
Hou: .279/.340/.472/.812
2018
MLB: .232/.302/.386/.688
Hou: .248/.328/.403/.730
2019
MLB: .251/.322/.459/.781
Hou: .284/.362/.516/.878

So Hou definitely had a huge advantage over their opponents hitting at Minute Maid. Of course some of that is due to the fact that the Astros have had incredible pitching the past 3 seasons.

2017: 4.12 era (5th in AL)
2018: 3.11 era (1st in AL)
2019: 3.66 era (2nd in AL)

So yes it's clear they were cheating. But how much of an impact did it have on the outcomes? Hard to quantify it.
I wonder if it’s hard to get used to hitting based off signaling. You spend 15-20 years trying to read spin and arm angle and trust your eyes and reflexes, then suddenly you’re going off banging or whistling.

With boxing, you get some trainers who shout at their fighters what to throw. You can hear it on TV a ton - throw the hook. That always threw me off.
 

YTF

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No, but I listened to MLBN on Sirius and the 5-6pm hour spent most of their time shitting all over Fiers while claiming everyone does it. I was quite surprised.
Were they claiming that everyone steals signs or claiming that they steal signs in a similar manner? Also, Fiers does wear a bit of the stink on this, but his take on this and how it potentially affects the ability of young pitchers to stick in the big leagues is worth considering.
 

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Were they claiming that everyone steals signs or claiming that they steal signs in a similar manner? Also, Fiers does wear a bit of the stink on this, but his take on this and how it potentially affects the ability of young pitchers to stick in the big leagues is worth considering.
If I recall correctly, Fiers spent 2 years in Detroit, why wait until now? Why not keep this behind closed doors? Why not say if other teams are also doing this?

It was more about tone than any specific thing they said. Their tone was very "nothing to see here."
 

phrenile

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How about because someone asked a question and, because the Astros were in his rear view mirror, he wasn't bound to their omerta.
 

Marciano490

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How about because someone asked a question and, because the Astros were in his rear view mirror, he wasn't bound to their omerta.
There’s got to be a pretty strong culture of silence in the sport with the amount of time these guys spend around each other and the things they witness - cheating, drug and steroid use, etc.

When all the steroid stuff came out, I don’t remember a ton of players complaining (maybe Greenwell about losing the MVP to Canseco).

Otherwise, it’s weird to think you’re getting paid $20 million by your new team that you’re trying to win with and you let them keep cheating to beat your rotation mates?
 

jon abbey

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More from The Athletic:

“ Major League Baseball’s investigation into the Astros and sign stealing is virtually certain to include interviews with three current managers — the Astros’ AJ Hinch, the Red Sox’s Alex Cora and the Mets’ Carlos Beltrán.

Hinch was the Astros’ manager in 2017, and sources said both Cora and Beltrán played a key role in devising the sign-stealing system the team used that season. The Astros stole signs electronically, according to pitcher Mike Fiers and three other sources inside the organization at the time, violating major league rules. ”