The Arms (Errr, Legs) Race: 2022 Summer Transfer Window

Pesky Pole

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At that price, I assume the sexual assault investigation are making him too big of a character risk for some teams. He's also been banned twice from driving due to multiple speed offenses. If he's innocent on the assault charges, this is a steal of a price.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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At that price, I assume the sexual assault investigation are making him too big of a character risk for some teams. He's also been banned twice from driving due to multiple speed offenses. If he's innocent on the assault charges, this is a steal of a price.
I'm not sure the price (there seems to be some varying accounts, but call it somewhere between £25-30m) is that low given that he only has one year left on his contract. To take two other midfielders in that situation recently, Liverpool paid £25m for Thiago and Arsenal are being linked to Tielemans with a reported price around £25-30m as well. Unless there is a real bidding war between clubs, you just don't have a lot of leverage as the seller in that spot.
 

Zososoxfan

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I may be way off with this, but it seems like world football was pretty bad at the spending money on player thing, only really figuring it out in the last 5 years or so. Teams were so silly splashing huge transfer fees when a more sustainable approach would've been avoiding transfer fees like the plague and paying players more wages. Of course young elite players at medium-sized clubs will usually earn their clubs big transfer fees, but I think 9-figure transfer fees are mostly a relic of the past.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I may be way off with this, but it seems like world football was pretty bad at the spending money on player thing, only really figuring it out in the last 5 years or so. Teams were so silly splashing huge transfer fees when a more sustainable approach would've been avoiding transfer fees like the plague and paying players more wages. Of course young elite players at medium-sized clubs will usually earn their clubs big transfer fees, but I think 9-figure transfer fees are mostly a relic of the past.
Well , the transfer fee inflation (thank you Neymar) was bound to wear off post COVID.

Clubs that sold players for exorbitant prices - Grealish , Coutinho ,Abraham for example - are the real winners here
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I may be way off with this, but it seems like world football was pretty bad at the spending money on player thing, only really figuring it out in the last 5 years or so. Teams were so silly splashing huge transfer fees when a more sustainable approach would've been avoiding transfer fees like the plague and paying players more wages. Of course young elite players at medium-sized clubs will usually earn their clubs big transfer fees, but I think 9-figure transfer fees are mostly a relic of the past.
I think its the players and agents that have figured things out, running down deals more frequently and increasing their share of the pie.
 

Zososoxfan

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Well , the transfer fee inflation (thank you Neymar) was bound to wear off post COVID.

Clubs that sold players for exorbitant prices - Grealish , Coutinho ,Abraham for example - are the real winners here
Oh for sure. For fun, what clubs do you think had the highest balance of transfer fees (i.e., income - expenditures) from 2016-2017 - 2022-2023?

All values in Euros:

1. Benfica - $468M
2. RBL - $343M
3. Ajax - $312M
4. Lyon - $226M
5. Lille - $213M
6. Sporting - $198M
7. Monaco - $183M
8. Braga - $157M
9. Dortmund - $156M
10. Porto - $155M
*11. Zagreb - $152M

*Had to get Zagreb on this list. I bet good money no one got that one!

No surprise it's dominated by Portuguese and French clubs. Didn't realize RBL was in the biz that big, and surprised Ajax was that much in the black.

I think its the players and agents that have figured things out, running down deals more frequently and increasing their share of the pie.
Absolutely, and this is something I was trying to allude to in my previous comment but instead I awkwardly focused on the clubs. Players now understand the importance and value of "free agency" and the length of their deals.
 

DJnVa

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I agree he could do well in that role and Spurs could use him, but he wants to play every minutand it’s too much money for Spurs.

This number can't be right. But I mean, if you pay that and sell Bergwijn for about 2/3rds of that...that's not bad.

 

Stanley Steamer

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I see Liverpool has secured the transfer of Calvin Ramsay from Aberdeen for £4.5M. There are some add-ons, and apparently a 20% sell on clause. They also landed Fabio Carvalho from Fulham for a mere £5M. Is it me, or do those fees seem low compared to others in this current market?
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I see Liverpool has secured the transfer of Calvin Ramsay from Aberdeen for £4.5M. There are some add-ons, and apparently a 20% sell on clause. They also landed Fabio Carvalho from Fulham for a mere £5M. Is it me, or do those fees seem low compared to others in this current market?
They are both very, very young - as was Harvey Elliot a couple of years ago - with no experience in a senior European league.

Guys like that rarely command big transfer fees.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I see Liverpool has secured the transfer of Calvin Ramsay from Aberdeen for £4.5M. There are some add-ons, and apparently a 20% sell on clause. They also landed Fabio Carvalho from Fulham for a mere £5M. Is it me, or do those fees seem low compared to others in this current market?
No idea about Ramsay but Carvalho was out of contract this summer. When an English club signs a player on a "free" under a certain age who has been developed by another English club, the signing club actually has to pay a small fee determined by a tribunal. But clubs also have the option of just negotiating the fee between themselves and I think that's what Liverpool and Fulham did. He definitely would have cost significantly more if his Fulham contract was not up this summer.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Porto officially confirmed the transfer of Fabio Vieira to Arsenal for 35m euro plus 5m in bonuses.

Transfer came totally out of the blue and put every Arsenal journalist/insider in the mud. He was literally never mentioned before yesterday by anybody.

I'd never even heard of him before yesterday but he looks like a fun player based on youtube. My guess is that he rotates with Odegaard and Saka but in some matches he might play alongside Odegaard as the two 8s in a 4-3-3. That might be a bit lightweight but would have creativity and ball playing ability up the wazoo.

His teammate Vitinha looks really good too, a couple different PL clubs have been linked.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Porto officially confirmed the transfer of Fabio Vieira to Arsenal for 35m euro plus 5m in bonuses.

Transfer came totally out of the blue and put every Arsenal journalist/insider in the mud. He was literally never mentioned before yesterday by anybody.

I'd never even heard of him before yesterday but he looks like a fun player based on youtube. My guess is that he rotates with Odegaard and Saka but in some matches he might play alongside Odegaard as the two 8s in a 4-3-3. That might be a bit lightweight but would have creativity and ball playing ability up the wazoo.

His teammate Vitinha looks really good too, a couple different PL clubs have been linked.
This is definitely a transfer partially now, but also looking at the future as he just turned 22 about two weeks ago. I think rotating with Odegaard and Saka and hopefully developing into a more full time player over the next couple years as Saka did.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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No idea about Ramsay but Carvalho was out of contract this summer. When an English club signs a player on a "free" under a certain age who has been developed by another English club, the signing club actually has to pay a small fee determined by a tribunal. But clubs also have the option of just negotiating the fee between themselves and I think that's what Liverpool and Fulham did. He definitely would have cost significantly more if his Fulham contract was not up this summer.
and - this was actually negotiated in the January window but they couldn’t get the paperwork done in time
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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This is definitely a transfer partially now, but also looking at the future as he just turned 22 about two weeks ago. I think rotating with Odegaard and Saka and hopefully developing into a more full time player over the next couple years as Saka did.
Yup, I agree with that. He hasn't played that much first team football so easing him in as a rotational player this year makes the most sense. He seems like an exciting addition though, just from his highlights videos at least. Very quick feet and the kind of left foot that invariably gets described as a "wand" by football commentators.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Lots of buzz about Raphinha right now, with Arsenal reportedly having made a formal offer yesterday and both Spurs and Chelsea also interested. The two big issues, however, are that the player still has his heart set on Barcelona but they are in the thick of their financial mess and that Leeds seem to be sensing an opportunity to demand an extortionate price of 65m pounds (that might include some add ons).

I really like Raphinha's game but 65m pounds seems pretty crazy for a player that transferred to Leeds two seasons ago for 17m and has had 6 and 7 non-penalty goals in those two seasons at Elland Road. He is a good player for sure, with the technical ability to play in any team, but you have to really believe that he will go up a level in a better side to justify paying 65m for him.

More generally, there seems to be sort of a "musical wingers" game going on with Barcelona, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man United, and Tottenham all looking for a goal scoring winger or wide forward and Dembele, Raphinha, Richarlison, Sterling, Antony, and maybe Gnabry all potentially in the mix. I'm actually quite curious what would happen if Man City sell Sterling: You have to imagine that if they want to buy a replacement, they go right to the front of the line with Barcelona in terms of most desirable destinations. Raphinha actually looks like a pretty sensible target for them if Sterling leaves, in that he can play on both sides next year and then could be the longer term Mahrez replacement as the technical, left footed winger who is really dangerous in space on the right. Antony could also make sense for much the same reasons, although Ajax are reported to be asking for a lot of money.

View: https://twitter.com/FabrizioRomano/status/1539637475504693248
 
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Joe D Reid

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Newcastle address a need I didn't quite understand them to have by snagging GK Nick Pope from Burnley for 12m. They've also been linked with seemingly half of the France U-23 team, which is a good a strategy as any. But not a lot of fireworks and no real credible rumors linking them to petroclub-type players.
 

Zososoxfan

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Just noting here that many of these player contracts technically run thru 30/06 so I expect we will start to see a fury of activity beginning when the calendar turns. GIDDYUP!!
 

Kliq

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That is Bergwijn going to Ajax, for those who didn't know that (including me).
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Regarding Sterling.

https://theathletic.com/3372919/2022/06/20/sterling-jesus-transfer-chelsea-arsenal/?source=user_shared_article

This suggests City want to sell both Sterling and Jesus with Phillips and Cucarella being the prime targets. Guess Pep got tired of driving Fanstasy managers crazy with Pep Roulette and the 8 world class wingers.

The other big news was Marina Granovskaia leaving Chelsea.

https://theathletic.com/3207484/2022/06/22/marina-granovskaia-chelsea/?source=user_shared_article
 

67YAZ

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Rumor is that ManU are in Amsterdam now working on a £40m deal for Antony - which I’m not so sure makes sense for ManU, but seems a juicy news item because their manager is ETH.

Nonetheless, it will be nice business for Ajax to swap wingers and book £15m+ in profit.
 

OCST

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Valuing Raphinha at 20 more than Richarlison is nuts, Richy has by far the better numbers and track record.
 

coremiller

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npxg+xa/90 the last two years

Raphinha: .46, .54
Richarlison: .37, .44

This despite the fact that Richarlison is really more of a true wide forward than an attacking midfielder/winger. Raphinha's passing/ball progression numbers are much better.

My guess is that if you look at wingers/attacking midfielders in a top 5 league who are 1) 25 or younger, 2) averaged .5 npxg+xa/90 over the last two seasons while 3) playing >4000 minutes, there aren't that many. That makes for a valuable player, although not superstar level. I think the price is on the high side; it would make more sense if Raphinha was 21 rather than 25. But the interest makes sense.
 

DJnVa

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The clean sheets is the vital metric here
Aren't the clean sheet numbers are pretty much the same?

Rapinha's 9 in 65 appearances (one every 7.2 games) is slightly better than 23 in 173 (1 every 7.5).
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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npxg+xa/90 the last two years

Raphinha: .46, .54
Richarlison: .37, .44

This despite the fact that Richarlison is really more of a true wide forward than an attacking midfielder/winger. Raphinha's passing/ball progression numbers are much better.

My guess is that if you look at wingers/attacking midfielders in a top 5 league who are 1) 25 or younger, 2) averaged .5 npxg+xa/90 over the last two seasons while 3) playing >4000 minutes, there aren't that many. That makes for a valuable player, although not superstar level. I think the price is on the high side; it would make more sense if Raphinha was 21 rather than 25. But the interest makes sense.
I agree with this overall.

With Raphinha I think the big question - relevant for both Arsenal and Spurs - is whether he can maintain that production when adapting to different roles. That's true of any transfer in a way but both these teams would need him to play on the left a lot. He's not worth paying a huge amount of money for just as a guy to rotate with Saka or with Kulusevski on the right. He played on the left a lot in Portugal but that was 3-4 years and several clubs ago when he was still very much developing as a player. At Leeds transfermarkt has him on the left in 9 matches over the last two years. He has been reasonably productive but its a small sample.

With Spurs there is the added issue that Raphinha at Leeds has been very much a wide player - in the attacking half he really plays on the touchline as the widest attacker, kind of like Mahrez at City or how Saka is deployed at Arsenal. But in a 3-4-3 the "winger" is really more of a half-space player in possession with the wingback the wide player. Good players can adapt to new roles but I do think Spurs would be asking him to do some pretty different things, playing inside a lot more. Richarlison seems like maybe the better system fit to me for Spurs for that reason, plus the ability to cover for Kane.
 

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I follow City’s youth team quite a bit and I have to tell you I have absolutely no idea who he is and why you’d pay 5 million for him. We have a lot of really talented youth players so he may be really good but he’s not one of the ones knocking on the door
 
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So, how does Leeds expect to replace Phillips and Raphinha? They were in the relegation battle with them, and can only get worse unless they are truly able to upgrade
 

OCST

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Much rather lose Raph than Phillips if I'm Leeds. They could bump along without Raph as a 12-16th place team. Without Phillips they are dead.
 

teddykgb

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So, how does Leeds expect to replace Phillips and Raphinha? They were in the relegation battle with them, and can only get worse unless they are truly able to upgrade
Well they mostly didn’t have Phillips who really struggled with injury. Agree with the sentiment though I don’t know who they’re attracting to Leeds under a new manager who barely survived the drop. It’s a really precariously position hopefully they have some targets in mind and these aren’t just early parachute payments
 

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They've invested early to fill gaps, with a few more to go. My understanding is the team will use much of the transfer funds to get as close to replacing them as possible. Of course the new players won't be equivalent but a larger squad with better overall talent is the goal. They essentially are following Leicester's template.
 

67YAZ

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I like Meslier in net. The back line is serviceable for a bottom half club. The the attack relies on Bamford being healthy to present any kind of finishing threat. And the engine room is manned by Forshaw & Klich? That’s not even gonna compete for Championsip mid table, especially if Marsch is gonna try to play the fast vertical attacking style he ran with RB.
 
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maybe he's banking on the World Cup break to bring his team together for a lengthy run starting Boxing Day

Leeds recruitment has 2-3 weeks to get a full roster together ready for week 1
 

rguilmar

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So, how does Leeds expect to replace Phillips and Raphinha? They were in the relegation battle with them, and can only get worse unless they are truly able to upgrade
Tyler Adams? RB are moving away from the old RB system so Adams isn’t as useful to them.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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They signed Marc Roca and seem interested in Tyler Adams too. They’ve also already signed Aaronson and are linked to other wingers.

Could be Team USA, Yorkshire chapter by the end of the window.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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If Chelsea sign Raphinha and Sterling, as seems pretty likely, that is basically the end for Pulisic at the club. He’ll be 4th choice winger at best behind those two and Mount. Maybe fifth choice depending on what happens with Werner, Ziyech, and CHO. Kid needs to move and start over somewhere.
 

teddykgb

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The early returns for Chelsea’s new ownership are not looking great. Pulisic never should have gone there but getting out this summer could be a blessing for him and the USMNT.

I have no idea why Chelsea are spending the summer chasing wingers when they already had some quality there and have massive gaps in their back line with an aging midfield